Week 6
- Thread starter Happy Hippo
- Start date
HH great stuff as always. A few questions for you...
- I liked Carolina all week. I hate to put it this way but do you see the Vikings coming out with extra motivation for AP? I hate going against teams dealing with tragedies like this. You just never know how they will respond. I cannot imagine what AP is going thru - I'm sure his teammates will be playing hard for him today.
- any thoughts on the bengals -7.5? Their D Line is best in the NFL. They shut down Brady last week, I doubt they have any trouble with 3rd string Thad Lewis. this line looks fishy though. What do u think?
- curious about the steelers play. Why do you like them here? Their offensive line is possibly the worst in the NFL. The aggressive jets front 7 should be all over Big Ben and Cromartie/Milliner can handle Brown and Sanders easily. On the other side Geno Smith seems to be improving each week. What's behind the steelers play?
GL HH I will be tailing you as usual.
- I liked Carolina all week. I hate to put it this way but do you see the Vikings coming out with extra motivation for AP? I hate going against teams dealing with tragedies like this. You just never know how they will respond. I cannot imagine what AP is going thru - I'm sure his teammates will be playing hard for him today.
- any thoughts on the bengals -7.5? Their D Line is best in the NFL. They shut down Brady last week, I doubt they have any trouble with 3rd string Thad Lewis. this line looks fishy though. What do u think?
- curious about the steelers play. Why do you like them here? Their offensive line is possibly the worst in the NFL. The aggressive jets front 7 should be all over Big Ben and Cromartie/Milliner can handle Brown and Sanders easily. On the other side Geno Smith seems to be improving each week. What's behind the steelers play?
GL HH I will be tailing you as usual.
- Mar 2, 2006
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Thanks Huego and rrc
trojanman -
1) Who knows, could be, or could be a distraction as well. My guess is that once players get on the field, it will be all about football - sports serve as a good distraction for the bigger problems of life.
2) Saw nothing on this game, have no idea.
3) I like the Steelers in this spot for a few reasons. First, the Jets are coming off a win as a big dog on Monday night football, and the Steelers have had more time to prepare. Now, the Jets are viewed as the way *better* team (which, they probably are), and this line moved a number of points because of the perception that goes along with their Monday night win. But, teams that are *better* don't respond that well to this situation. Teams with a better record than their opponent are 13-21 ATS (38.2%) when playing at home coming off a road win as a dog of nine or more (since 1990). It has only happened a few times in the last twenty-ish years that a Monday night dog of 9 or more has won SU, and they are 1-5-1 ATS (16.7%) in their next game. Since the millenium, teams coming off a road dog win on Monday night football, now playing as a home favorite with less rest than their opponent are 9-18 ATS (33.3%).
These are all small sample sizes, but they show a little the mentality that may be facing this Jets team today. And, they have the Patriots on deck next week in a big divisional showdown. What else.... teams that lost their last game on the road and are playing on the road in a game where the line is within 3 of a pick-'em are 72-33-4 ATS (68.6%) since the 2004 season. This is a good spot for the Steelers to get their first win. Teams with three or more losses coming out of the bye week are 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%) since the 1989 season. Teams with a worse record than their opponent that are playing as a road dog with more rest are 24-12 ATS (66.7%) since the 2003 season when their opponent is coming off a win as a dog.
That's about it. The Steelers are not great, by any stretch. But, they do have a veteran quarterback and a good coach. The media is funny - one week Geno Smith is an awful quarterback, and a turnover machine, but a nice winning drive in primetime, and all of a sudden he is the long-term answer for the Jets. While Roethlisberger has not been a gem this season, let's not forget that Geno has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and has a lower QB rating that Roethlisberger, who is still averaging over 300 yards a game, with a completion rate of 63.6%. The Falcons secondary is really bad, and Smith's great outing certainly has to do a bit with that! Pitt has been solid defensively, and that is their major strength today, against a rookie QB on a short week. The Jets performance last Monday has inflated their stock a bit, and this is as good a spot as any to back a Pitt team that is desperate for a win.
Cheers
trojanman -
1) Who knows, could be, or could be a distraction as well. My guess is that once players get on the field, it will be all about football - sports serve as a good distraction for the bigger problems of life.
2) Saw nothing on this game, have no idea.
3) I like the Steelers in this spot for a few reasons. First, the Jets are coming off a win as a big dog on Monday night football, and the Steelers have had more time to prepare. Now, the Jets are viewed as the way *better* team (which, they probably are), and this line moved a number of points because of the perception that goes along with their Monday night win. But, teams that are *better* don't respond that well to this situation. Teams with a better record than their opponent are 13-21 ATS (38.2%) when playing at home coming off a road win as a dog of nine or more (since 1990). It has only happened a few times in the last twenty-ish years that a Monday night dog of 9 or more has won SU, and they are 1-5-1 ATS (16.7%) in their next game. Since the millenium, teams coming off a road dog win on Monday night football, now playing as a home favorite with less rest than their opponent are 9-18 ATS (33.3%).
These are all small sample sizes, but they show a little the mentality that may be facing this Jets team today. And, they have the Patriots on deck next week in a big divisional showdown. What else.... teams that lost their last game on the road and are playing on the road in a game where the line is within 3 of a pick-'em are 72-33-4 ATS (68.6%) since the 2004 season. This is a good spot for the Steelers to get their first win. Teams with three or more losses coming out of the bye week are 26-10-1 ATS (72.2%) since the 1989 season. Teams with a worse record than their opponent that are playing as a road dog with more rest are 24-12 ATS (66.7%) since the 2003 season when their opponent is coming off a win as a dog.
That's about it. The Steelers are not great, by any stretch. But, they do have a veteran quarterback and a good coach. The media is funny - one week Geno Smith is an awful quarterback, and a turnover machine, but a nice winning drive in primetime, and all of a sudden he is the long-term answer for the Jets. While Roethlisberger has not been a gem this season, let's not forget that Geno has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and has a lower QB rating that Roethlisberger, who is still averaging over 300 yards a game, with a completion rate of 63.6%. The Falcons secondary is really bad, and Smith's great outing certainly has to do a bit with that! Pitt has been solid defensively, and that is their major strength today, against a rookie QB on a short week. The Jets performance last Monday has inflated their stock a bit, and this is as good a spot as any to back a Pitt team that is desperate for a win.
Cheers
Nice write up and couldn't agree more that the rookie SHOULD lay an egg today on a short week!GO STEELERS:0074
Thx for the analysis HH. Great stuff as always. I'll throw out my gut instinct on this and tail you on the Steelers pick. GL today!!
- Mar 19, 2006
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she makes you better everyday..
but you knew that already..
continue the good life..:0074
- Nov 13, 2009
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- Mar 2, 2006
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Thanks all, would love to bring the Chargers bet home tonight for a solid week.
Have already made some plays for next week and will post them tomorrow morning.
Cheers
Have already made some plays for next week and will post them tomorrow morning.
Cheers
- Mar 18, 2009
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Nice week HH 5-2 in the black BIG. Congrats nicely done, sorry about the Skins and Bucs, they fell short this week
