- WEEK 7 -

the addict

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54-37 YTD

4-0 Big Plays YTD

19-4 Big Plays career



hit the biggun again last week...

Iowa ST was a straight up winnerr and also posted them ML!!!!!!!!!!


Love this week and have a big play again most likely...

GL fellas and ladies lets win some cash



PLAYS:

FRIDAY:

NAVY ML WIN

SATURDAY:


TEXAS +3.5 LOSS

BAMA -21 WIN

ND -9.5 LOSS

VANDY +7 LOSS

LSU ML WIN

TX TECH BIGBIGBIG :0008 :0008 :0008 :toast: :0074 :0002 :popcorn2 WINNER

NOTDAME UNDER 45 WIN

MICHIGAN -23 WIN

KSTATE -6 PUSH

WISKY OVER 51 WIN

MTSU ML 3X WIN

TENNESSE +3
 
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the addict

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Fuck it, I'm postin it.

Already have it ready

See what happens when I am up late, I bet too much money

Gl


Big play week again

4-0 on the year all posted

18-4 lifetime all posted

Gl fellas and play at own risk



ADDING:

BIG PLAY

TEX TECH +6 bought the half


Make love to this fellas


4-0 lookin for 5-0
 

the addict

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5 dimes is only place I have 5.5...

Everywhere else is 4...

I anticipate this line moving to 3 or 3.5 most places


If u wanna get the 6 I would say act quick


Last week iowa st was big play posted on Monday as well, and had 11.5

Was 7 by gametime


Just a heads up if anyone even hits any of these games...


Gl
 

capping-guru

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GL this week! The only thing I can see with WV is an emotional letdown after the Texas game because Tech has nowhere the team the Horns have. Being a road game help Tech here too with WV.

I have Vandy, I want to hit ND but I think they battle hard to the end, FG type of game. But if the Irish D plays the way it has and the offense can get going again, they cover easily. GL this week!
 

cole

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Love the Texas play. Will be my biggest of the year so far. Horns should dominate both sides of the line. gl
 

Jord20

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Love your card, Addict. Sorry, bro. That's not a good thing for you, the way I ran this past week. :facepalm:

I want Layinwood's take on Tech bc, I agree with you
 

the addict

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Gl fellas...

Hope we r all correct...

Love tx tech...

Love them


Vegas gave away money with wvu +7...


Settin people up this week to give even more back...


I have tech winning by 7....


Only make big plays if my number is more then 10 pts different from vegas...

This one was very close, but with the weird line and public perceptions, its a no brainer to me...

If I lose then I lose...

But I feel like I got my money in a good spot
 

fatback

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Addict, wanted to get your thoughts on LSU. As we saw this past weekend, LSU's offense is in complete disarray and the 2 games they looked just atrocious was against a horrible AU team and a subpar FL defense. SC has significantly better coaching they seem to be churning on all cylinders right now so I was shocked at the line. It opened at LSU -4 and quickly hit -2.5 :shrug:

I know this fits the unranked home favorite system but this is just one of those games I do not see any possible way of LSU winning

U the man!!!!!! :toast: :toast:
 

Cie

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fatback

i am not addict, but i can assure you that lsu offensive line is in bad shape, with only 2 starters at 100 percent, and no experienced LT to cover for Faulk, who went down for the year during blowout of washington.

btw, this game does not meet unranked fav system.

good luck and would like to hear addict's thoughts as well.
 

nocatula24

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If you think Florida's defense is sub-par, youre crazy. Just curious as to how you come to that conclusion. They are 3rd in SEC in scoring defense, 4th in total defense and pass defense, and 1st in 3rd down defense (which I think is a huge stat). I may be missing something but I don't think so.
 

fatback

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Thanks Cie, I'm an idiot and had a brain fart about the rankings. I seriously forgot that LSU was still ranked:toast:

If Steven Garcia was still QB, I could understand the line but Shaw seems to be improving every single week and has done a great job of limiting mistakes
 

fatback

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Noc, I agree subpar is an overstatement but just from watching them, I do not feel they are as good as the rankings you pointed out because they have only played 2 high ranked offenses in Texas AM and Tennessee and yes FL did great against those 2 teams but the other 3 teams they faced are ranked 81-105 in offense

I'm still just shocked at this line!!!!!! :shrug: :shrug:
 

nocatula24

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JMO but this line will hang around the 3. If this was made a pick or SC favored it would get hammered the other way. LSU at night is a whole different beast and while I think Carolina is capable of handling the situation, Miles and the crowd will keep them involved. I also think they will let Mett open up a bit and not be so vanilla since they are at home. I'll shut up now and quit hi jacking addicts thread, sorry.
 

the addict

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Let me start off by sayin I first take stats and run them thru a little system that I created. No bias at all, just simply numbers. After I am done, I find all the games that have a significant difference between the number vegas has and the number I got...

In this case I had lsu by 10.

After finding the games that stick out, I then try to figure out good reasons why I think a certain team will win to further my decision to play them. (I don't play all games that show up)


Lsu:

1. Will be hungry. They know any chance at a national title goes out the door with loss #2. Les miles will have this team ready.

2. Lsu at home is insanley good. That place will be absolutley rocking. Similar to s.c last week, I think lsu hits some big plays early and takes all momentum.

3. Stopping lattimore. Regardless of who s.c has at qb, they key to beating them is stopping lattimore. Lsu will do so. Miles has amazing schemes and gameplans for big games. Lsu secondary is top notch even without honeybadger. Stop lattimore, stop s.c on the road. Driskell had like 60 yds passing but florida ran well...lsu will make a point to stop the run...and their secondary is nasty so will be able to contain sc passing game

4. Run the ball. Georgia struggled last week, but they did have some succes running the ball. If they wouldn't of had to throw because of a large deficit, they would ripped off 200 yds rushing I almost gaurantee it... ware will get downhill......lsu line play has been bad, but miles will play to their strenghts ...if u can't block clowney, put 2 on em...

5. Like stated above lsu secondary is insane. They will make plays and I suspect a few turnovers. I love the playmakers here. Turnovers are the most crucial part of the game imo...lsu is good at making plays in big spots...

6. Line just seemed weird to me....two teams most people feel are going in opposite directions....#3 ranked team in the country gettin spotted points...just strange to me...

7. I do not whatsoever see s.c going unbeaten. Just don't. Dumb reaosn to play a game, but they will lose. Noone better then lsu to take em down...

8. Night game at lsu....come on man

These are all just reasons I like lsu, but like stated, the main reason I play games is when my numbers don't match what vegas has....I am have lsu by 10 which honestly was good enough for me without considering all of this...



Like I said, initially I just take stats and run them thru, keeping all bias out of the equation.

These are just reasons I selected lsu as one of the plays.

May not be the most ideal way to pick games, but it has worked for me for 6 years.
 

#cruncher

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Addict, wanted to get your thoughts on LSU. As we saw this past weekend, LSU's offense is in complete disarray and the 2 games they looked just atrocious was against a horrible AU team and a subpar FL defense. SC has significantly better coaching they seem to be churning on all cylinders right now so I was shocked at the line. It opened at LSU -4 and quickly hit -2.5 :shrug:

I know this fits the unranked home favorite system but this is just one of those games I do not see any possible way of LSU winning

U the man!!!!!! :toast: :toast:
This line may be somewhat similar to the Saints being 3.5 point favorites over San Diego last night; I would not have thought that. Saints needed a win desperately and LSU knows that if they lose any NC aspirations are over with. So Carolina may or may not be the better team but think this is a bad spot to be going against LSU. SC hasn't seen a defense as near as good as LSU's and they are capable of a bad game, they were down by 10 at halftime to Ky. I think it's time for LSU to give QB Bolden a shot; he can at least scramble and LSU needs to try anything it can to get more offensive production.
 

the addict

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This line may be somewhat similar to the Saints being 3.5 point favorites over San Diego last night; I would not have thought that. Saints needed a win desperately and LSU knows that if they lose any NC aspirations are over with. So Carolina may or may not be the better team but think this is a bad spot to be going against LSU. SC hasn't seen a defense as near as good as LSU's and they are capable of a bad game, they were down by 10 at halftime to Ky. I think it's time for LSU to give QB Bolden a shot; he can at least scramble and LSU needs to try anything it can to get more offensive production.


That was my #1 reason above.


Lsu knows loss #2 is it. If they lose their season is done when considering the programs standards....

Not always about who is the better team, rather then who is the more desperate team....

Lsu is backed in the corner

Sc is on top of the hill celebrating...

Should be a fun one...
 

#cruncher

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:0corn Exactly Addict, hadn't seen that post of yours when I made this one. Tiger stadium should be rocking this Saturday and Les may need to pull a rabbit out of the hat, hope it's the one I'm thinking of.
 

the addict

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jesus christmas tx tech +3.5 at my book. good luck. still may grab a piece at that...

4.5 at dimes now


best book in the world if your anti public





man 5.5 last night

4.5 now

3 at a lot of places


fuck tech may be a fav by game time



they win outright


gl buddy
 
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