===*===
2025 NFL: 40-56-2 -375.76 (latest, wk6: 11-12 +363.91)
--straight: 14-11-2 [sides: 13-11-1 (fave:9-10-1, dog:4-1) totals: 0-0-1 (ov:x-y, un:0-0-1) tt 1-0-0 (over:1-0)]
--teasers: 21-24 [6, 6.5 & 7pts: 8-14, T3/10: 7-7, T4/13: 6-3]
--parlays: 5-21
===*===
Got away with murder last week, chasing losses with SNF appreciation and the crapshoot parlay on the MNF dogs. Winning record grim but I think I'm close to even on those parlays; I should do the math to confirm that questionable belief. Plus in 3 of last 4 weeks. Toot.
===
steelers -5.5 -102 102/100
---
rams@Jaguars un45 -113 113/100
---
patriots -7 -110 110/100
Bears -5.5 +101 100/101
panthers -105 105/100
---
Cowboys +110 100/110
packers -6.5 -108 108/100
---
falcons +117 100/117
---
=838(8)
T3/10 rams@Jaguars un55 / panthers +9 / falcons +11 -130 65/50
T2/6.5 Chiefs -5.5 / patriots -0.5 -140 140/100
T3/10 Chiefs -3 / eagles@Vikings un53.5 / colts +11 -130 65/50
T3/10 Chiefs -3 / eagles@Vikings un53.5 / Cowboys +11 -130 65/50
T3/10 Chiefs -3 / giants +19.5 / packers +3.5 -130 65/50
T3/6 patriots -1 / packers -0.5 / falcons +8 +160 50/80
=450(6)
P3 Jaguars +3 -115 / panthers -113 / colts +113 <+651> 40/260.25
P2 Bears -4 -120 / panthers -113 <+245> 50/122.79
P2 Bears -234 / Cowboys +110 <+199> 60/119.85
=150(3)
======
by risk:
335(4)Chiefs
300(3)patriots
260(4)panthers
225(3)Cowboys
225(3)packers
215(3)falcons
210(3)Bears
178(2)rams-Jaguars under
130(2)eagles@Vikings under
105(2)colts
102(1)Steelers
65(1)giants
40(1)Jaguars
===
rationalization and other bleatings:
[Pit]--Tomlin and company should be familiar with what Flacco's tendencies are, and I figure that Rodgers and company should be able to create enough to grab the needed TD+ separation. Still hard to tell if Steelers have fixed their early defensive miscues; 2023 also saw early-season defensive gaffs--similarly vs the passing game--that were cleaned up by around this time
[under & Jax]--Rams possibly without key receiver Puka Nacua here. I've recently started looking into opponent passer rating, for handicapping, and this match looks to have the (2nd) best combo of the bunch, with Rams coming in at 8th best of 86.9, and Jaguars come in an even better 4th at 79.4. I'm banking on more overseas torture with a low-scoring affair.
[KC]--Chiefs to cover anything less than a touchdown looks like a gift, so I'll flirt with the teasers. Anxious to see Mahomes yards prop; it was 266.5 last week (finished under), coming up a bit short, but the deep shots took a rare week off, vs Lions, but I expect them to be recurring here
[n.e.]--Patriots looking to sweep their current streak of 3 on the road, after which they'll be home for a couple, starting with the lowly Browns next week. Titans coaching change is inconsequential to the Pats resurgence and it's hard to envision them looking this gifthorse is the mouth.
[Chi]--Talking heads sometimes spew that the Saints are pretty good, but I don't buy it. For what its worth, pathetic Bears D comes in with an opponent passer rating of 103.2 (24th) while the Saints visit with 111.0 (30th). Even more argumentatively, last 3 games has Saints at 103.0 and Bears a solid 80.9. I would stay off the streets of Chicago, Sunday night, if the Bears don't bring home the W.
[under@Min]--Eagles D underperformed last week but will be facing a much less fit QB in an ailing (left shoulder) Wentz, or a loopy and ailing (ankle) McCarthy. Last week, my brain worried about the somewhat "key" number of 51 (had under 50.5) which slammed me last week, but I've cleared it this tease 'round.
[car]--Recency bias on Fields but he would be at the bottom of whatever QB ranking I might presently concoct. Take out that opener against the Steelers and the Jets looks utterly incompetent. Panthers looking to go above .500 after taking their last two, showing that they have some mojo on offense, and I figure no chance the Jets win this unless they're hitting the mid-20's, which seems a pipe dream.
[ind]--Talking about opponent passer rating, there is one match that appears tighter than the Rams@Jags match. Colts go visiting with 87.2 (9th) and the Chargers are at 73.7 (2nd). Both running defenses might be able to be exploited in this match--Colts 12th best vs, by yards/game, and Chargers 21st. Colts' Taylor likely to have a high yards total in player props--not open, yet, on my sources, but Chargers Vidal should be listed lower; he looks fresh and motivated, and Harbaugh will want to run like crazy if possible.
[nyg]--Interesting to see that Broncos enter week 7 with opponent passer rating of 81.0 (5th) and the Giants enter with a healthy 88.5 (11th). Context required to interpret those numbers as Broncos QB's faced are Cam Ward's 1st game, Daniel Jones, Herbert, Browning, Hurts and Fields. Giants opposition tougher, having faced Jayden Daniels, Prescott, Mahomes, Herbert, Rattler and Hurts. I'm skeptical of Broncos long-term success, but Mile High will be tough. Tempted by the +7.5 but the -123 cheesed me off.
[Dal]--Cowboys have some key players returning soon. Not sure about CeeDee Lamb returning but it appears to be trending that way. Receiver Turpin practicing this week, also. Commanders in a bit of a rough stretch and this game looks huge for the NFC East standings.
[gb]--Packers offense presently underwhelming, but this matchup looks like a good spot for them to double, or maybe triple, their takeaways (they have 2). Colts week 6 pre-game calamities probably affected their focus, leading to the slim margin, but I still believe the Cardinals are in disarray. Last week was partly a fade of Kyler Murray, so hopefully he will be back.
[atl]--Falcons off back-to-back impressive wins (Commanders, Bills) and the 49ers defense has been ravaged by injuries, even worse than their offense. I've gone against the 49ers a few times and been burned, but I think the Falcons can win this one. Positive vote via opponent passer rating as Falcons visit at 77.1 (3rd) while 49ers come in with 104.7 (26th), last 3 trending even better with Falcons at 78.8 and 49ers going the wrong way at 111.8.
===
May you use the time on your hands more wisely.
Good Luck
and Go Chiefs!
2025 NFL: 40-56-2 -375.76 (latest, wk6: 11-12 +363.91)
--straight: 14-11-2 [sides: 13-11-1 (fave:9-10-1, dog:4-1) totals: 0-0-1 (ov:x-y, un:0-0-1) tt 1-0-0 (over:1-0)]
--teasers: 21-24 [6, 6.5 & 7pts: 8-14, T3/10: 7-7, T4/13: 6-3]
--parlays: 5-21
===*===
Got away with murder last week, chasing losses with SNF appreciation and the crapshoot parlay on the MNF dogs. Winning record grim but I think I'm close to even on those parlays; I should do the math to confirm that questionable belief. Plus in 3 of last 4 weeks. Toot.
===
steelers -5.5 -102 102/100
---
rams@Jaguars un45 -113 113/100
---
patriots -7 -110 110/100
Bears -5.5 +101 100/101
panthers -105 105/100
---
Cowboys +110 100/110
packers -6.5 -108 108/100
---
falcons +117 100/117
---
=838(8)
T3/10 rams@Jaguars un55 / panthers +9 / falcons +11 -130 65/50
T2/6.5 Chiefs -5.5 / patriots -0.5 -140 140/100
T3/10 Chiefs -3 / eagles@Vikings un53.5 / colts +11 -130 65/50
T3/10 Chiefs -3 / eagles@Vikings un53.5 / Cowboys +11 -130 65/50
T3/10 Chiefs -3 / giants +19.5 / packers +3.5 -130 65/50
T3/6 patriots -1 / packers -0.5 / falcons +8 +160 50/80
=450(6)
P3 Jaguars +3 -115 / panthers -113 / colts +113 <+651> 40/260.25
P2 Bears -4 -120 / panthers -113 <+245> 50/122.79
P2 Bears -234 / Cowboys +110 <+199> 60/119.85
=150(3)
======
by risk:
335(4)Chiefs
300(3)patriots
260(4)panthers
225(3)Cowboys
225(3)packers
215(3)falcons
210(3)Bears
178(2)rams-Jaguars under
130(2)eagles@Vikings under
105(2)colts
102(1)Steelers
65(1)giants
40(1)Jaguars
===
rationalization and other bleatings:
[Pit]--Tomlin and company should be familiar with what Flacco's tendencies are, and I figure that Rodgers and company should be able to create enough to grab the needed TD+ separation. Still hard to tell if Steelers have fixed their early defensive miscues; 2023 also saw early-season defensive gaffs--similarly vs the passing game--that were cleaned up by around this time
[under & Jax]--Rams possibly without key receiver Puka Nacua here. I've recently started looking into opponent passer rating, for handicapping, and this match looks to have the (2nd) best combo of the bunch, with Rams coming in at 8th best of 86.9, and Jaguars come in an even better 4th at 79.4. I'm banking on more overseas torture with a low-scoring affair.
[KC]--Chiefs to cover anything less than a touchdown looks like a gift, so I'll flirt with the teasers. Anxious to see Mahomes yards prop; it was 266.5 last week (finished under), coming up a bit short, but the deep shots took a rare week off, vs Lions, but I expect them to be recurring here
[n.e.]--Patriots looking to sweep their current streak of 3 on the road, after which they'll be home for a couple, starting with the lowly Browns next week. Titans coaching change is inconsequential to the Pats resurgence and it's hard to envision them looking this gifthorse is the mouth.
[Chi]--Talking heads sometimes spew that the Saints are pretty good, but I don't buy it. For what its worth, pathetic Bears D comes in with an opponent passer rating of 103.2 (24th) while the Saints visit with 111.0 (30th). Even more argumentatively, last 3 games has Saints at 103.0 and Bears a solid 80.9. I would stay off the streets of Chicago, Sunday night, if the Bears don't bring home the W.
[under@Min]--Eagles D underperformed last week but will be facing a much less fit QB in an ailing (left shoulder) Wentz, or a loopy and ailing (ankle) McCarthy. Last week, my brain worried about the somewhat "key" number of 51 (had under 50.5) which slammed me last week, but I've cleared it this tease 'round.
[car]--Recency bias on Fields but he would be at the bottom of whatever QB ranking I might presently concoct. Take out that opener against the Steelers and the Jets looks utterly incompetent. Panthers looking to go above .500 after taking their last two, showing that they have some mojo on offense, and I figure no chance the Jets win this unless they're hitting the mid-20's, which seems a pipe dream.
[ind]--Talking about opponent passer rating, there is one match that appears tighter than the Rams@Jags match. Colts go visiting with 87.2 (9th) and the Chargers are at 73.7 (2nd). Both running defenses might be able to be exploited in this match--Colts 12th best vs, by yards/game, and Chargers 21st. Colts' Taylor likely to have a high yards total in player props--not open, yet, on my sources, but Chargers Vidal should be listed lower; he looks fresh and motivated, and Harbaugh will want to run like crazy if possible.
[nyg]--Interesting to see that Broncos enter week 7 with opponent passer rating of 81.0 (5th) and the Giants enter with a healthy 88.5 (11th). Context required to interpret those numbers as Broncos QB's faced are Cam Ward's 1st game, Daniel Jones, Herbert, Browning, Hurts and Fields. Giants opposition tougher, having faced Jayden Daniels, Prescott, Mahomes, Herbert, Rattler and Hurts. I'm skeptical of Broncos long-term success, but Mile High will be tough. Tempted by the +7.5 but the -123 cheesed me off.
[Dal]--Cowboys have some key players returning soon. Not sure about CeeDee Lamb returning but it appears to be trending that way. Receiver Turpin practicing this week, also. Commanders in a bit of a rough stretch and this game looks huge for the NFC East standings.
[gb]--Packers offense presently underwhelming, but this matchup looks like a good spot for them to double, or maybe triple, their takeaways (they have 2). Colts week 6 pre-game calamities probably affected their focus, leading to the slim margin, but I still believe the Cardinals are in disarray. Last week was partly a fade of Kyler Murray, so hopefully he will be back.
[atl]--Falcons off back-to-back impressive wins (Commanders, Bills) and the 49ers defense has been ravaged by injuries, even worse than their offense. I've gone against the 49ers a few times and been burned, but I think the Falcons can win this one. Positive vote via opponent passer rating as Falcons visit at 77.1 (3rd) while 49ers come in with 104.7 (26th), last 3 trending even better with Falcons at 78.8 and 49ers going the wrong way at 111.8.
===
May you use the time on your hands more wisely.
Good Luck
and Go Chiefs!
