Weekend Card (Nov 9th-13th)

[Irish]

Northern Ill (-6.5) over Toledo L
Someone tell me why this spread is so low? Toledo lost to Miami (OH) and now they travel to No. Ill and only get 6.5? I understand they kept it close even though they turned the ball over a lot. I know No. Ill struggled @ Ball St, but this No.Ill team is tough at home. I am a big Gradkowski (sp) fan but this rocket team isn't the best on the road. LAST YEAR THIS GAME WAS VERY CLOSE!! Still IMO the No. Ill o-line should dominate the rockets. Look for RB Wolfe to have a big day. The Rockets best RB Dawson is banged up. The Rockets have had Northern's number lately, winning 10 straight over the Huskies. Against Ball st it looked like the offense was scaled down a lot, Josh Haldi did not have a good game, IMO that will change Tuesday night.

GL
Irish

 

[gman2]

irish:

we seem to be butting heads the last few days which is strange since we normally seem to take the same approach and ultimately concur on a lot of games.

im actually surprised the line is this high. i think miami is a tougher place to play than dekalb and i also think miami is better than niu. i figured line would be -4 or -5.

only part i really disagree on was about last years game. toledo pounded the crap out of 'em and the final score wasnt indicative of the domination. toledo was up 28-7 at halftime, northern illinois made a push right out of halftime after some toledo turnovers (fumbled kickoff i believe, but im going purely off memory) and then rockets reclaimed control of the game. gradkowski hit 24 of 27 passes. niu is vulnerable to the pass again this year. but like you said, toledo not going to stop wolfe. ill probably be trying toledo moneyline.

will be lookin for your stuff the rest of the week. gl man. keep up the solid work. youve clearly established yourself of one of the best around this cfb forum.

 

[Irish]

Gman thanks for the kudos! Always good to hear that from someone I respect in the forum. I don't like going against someone like you especially in a MAC game! You are absolutely right about Miami being a tougher place to play and the final last year was closer than the game should have been. Still I'm hoping the Rockets are a little down after last weekend and they peek ahead to Bowling Green at home. The rockets have really got their work cut out for them in these final games.Games that really stick out in my mind at 2 home games for No. Ill against BG and Akron, they just dominated. That speaks well of their play at home. Still hate to go against you, Good luck to you Here is another MAC play tell me what you think??

Akron (PK) over Ohio
Zips are coming together and Ohio is not very good to begin with. This is the bobcats last game so I expect they come out with guns blazing but IMO they just don't have the talent. The Ohio offense is not very good and they will have trouble with IMO a not very strong Akron defense. As much a Ohio plays well at home this game should not be a pick'em?

GL
Irish

 

[gman2]

akron is such a tricky team. their success can be attributed to two things: confidence and scheduling. theres no doubt akron has benefited from a backloaded schedule up to this point. but they showed me a lot in that comeback vs marshall. sure to an extent the herd laid that game out there on a platter for 'em, but frye looked solid, hixon looked absolutely unstoppable, and that comeback was something that would not have happened last year or in years past. zips never showed that much heart.

very similar to iowa state in the big 12, akron (believe it or not) controls their own destiny in the final two weeks of the regular season. if they win out (at ohio, home vs. miami) they play for the mac championship/bowl berth. had you told me that a month ago, id have laughed. zips were 1-4 and had lost at home to middle tennessee and had gotten outscored in the 1st five weeks by a combined 198-77. but this shit is so crazy sometimes. akron definitely took advantage of games against buffalo, ucf, and ball state to turn their season around, but to their credit, they handled their business and then found some luck to beat marshall.

now they travel to ohio. bobcats started the season with tons of promise and have gone in the tank recently. im sure theyd love nothing more than to ruin akron's chances at a title. but i just dont think theyre good enough to do it. zips have to know whats at stake. they cant afford a slipup, otherwise the miami game next week means nothing.

i think youre absolutely right when you say ohio just isnt good enough offensively to exploit the akron defense. thats what it should come down to.

personally, im taking a pass on this game. im just still in disbelief that akron can go from 1-4 to playing for a mac championship berth. its almost inconceivable, especially with that program. ill be pulling hard for them just being a casual zips fan and wanting to see them do well for once. cant risk my money of them on the road though. but ohio is garbage and its definitely zips or pass.

 

[Irish]

West Virginia (-7) over BC
The neers are tough at home and they normally come out strong. The problem is they let teams back in games. IMO they play to the level of talent they face. Still with that being said BC is 1-2 on the road, with a come from behind win at ND.

BC offense has struggled to run the ball (56 yards Pittsburgh, 62 yards Notre Dame and 82 yards Rutgers). The WVU defense isn't that bad against the pass. This being WVU's last home game and a lot of Senior players I expect the neers to come out excited. If this got any higher than 7 it would have been a no play for me.

Oregon (-6) over UCLA
The UCLA loss against Washington St, leads me to believe the bruins might have been a bit over confident coming off the shut out over Stanford. Going to Oregon with USC on the doorstep is not a good place for the Bruins. Drew is nursing a sprained ankle, but should be a go. I'm not expecting a drop off after the Cal game considering it is the Ducks last home game!

Auburn (-5) over Georgia
IMO this play comes down to 2 issues. First is defense and the second is home field. The Bulldogs are playing well of late but the defense of Auburn is very good! Georgia allowed a lot of yards against the worst offense in D-1 NCAA football. Georgia's RB Ware is hampered by injuries BUT the defense will get some key components back. Greene has been on fire opf late but the pressure of Auburn should get him a little frazzled.

The Tigers also lead the SEC in scoring and rushing defense (allowing 9.7 points and 101.7 rushing yards per game) and 20 takeaways (2nd in the SEC) and the SEC's best net punting (40.5 yards per punt) On offense Tigers lead the SEC in two categories scoring (35.3 points per game) and total offense (434 yards per game). Still an injury to the starting Center, has me a little concerned. This is the game the Tigers have been waiting for, and at home they should be ready.

Purdue (-4) over Ohio St
The Mich St score was no were close to indicating how bad the OSU offense was for 3 quarters. The buckeyes struggled to run the ball and aside from Ginn the offense was poor at best. That being said special teams played very well! However in Purdue, they might have another thing coming. OSU?s defense is good but they played uninspired for most of the second half against the Spartans. I?m not sure if Orton will make the start but I think Kirsch can get it done. He needs to limit the mistakes. The boilermaker defense needs to tighten but the OSU offense should be as tough to stop as Iowa. Purdue NEEDS to fix the place kicker situation the guy is just terrible! OSU always gets too much respect IMO and that?s fine against Penn St (this year) or Mich St( with back-up qb in). If you eliminate big plays on special teams the Buckeyes can?t get it done.

GL
Irish

 

[Irish]

ND (-11) over pitt
Honestly I think the golden domers got a little luck of the Irish against Tenn! Without Schaffer (sp) and then Ainge going down!! Now Pitt comes into South Bend. Tough spot for ND with a big game @ USC next week. ND should be able to run the ball all day against this Pitt defense that allowed both Cuse RB's to gain 100 yards. The defense of ND will not allow Pitt too many opportunities and the crowd will be in full effect for their last home game!

Troy (-13) over La-Laff
La-Laff struggles against the run so it shouldn't be a problem for Troy to move the ball. On defense Troy will have to contain Babb. The Troy defense is very quick and should be able to get pressure on him. The La-Laff offense will turn the ball over (had 3 against a weak North Texas defense). Only reason I can think of why the line is so low is because of the showdown with Mid Tenn next week. AND Troy hasn?t been the strongest road team. Still the Rajun Cajun defense shouldn?t be a problem for the Troy offense!

La Tech (-4.5) over Tulsa
Tulsa is a very poor Road team, last week losing to SMU in OT. Tulsa has been battling penalties (10 in each of their last 2 games). The game comes at a bad time for La Tech, coming off the loss at Hawaii and heading into Boise! Moats has a ankle injury and may not play. Still think La tech should beat this team. Tech is very tough at home (their last game) where they beat Fresno. Moats battled his ankle injury to play against Hawaii which leads me to believe he will play in this game. If he plays he should have a monster game!

GL
Irish

 

[fatback]

In regards to Auburn, add the fact that GA plays w/ no team concept, no unity. It's like eleven individuals running around the field whereas AU has been outstanding this year playing as one. All of the sports analyst go on and on about how GA has more talent, which I disagree w/, but they still have not gelled together. It's absolutely painful to watch GA play.

This game will not be close!!!!!!!

GOOD LUCK

 

[Irish]

Toledo/No. Ill UNDER (64) W

GL
Irish

Question....
anyone know the status of Stanton (sp?) QB for Mich St? Is he going to lace them up or is it Dowdell? What I have heard is he is a no go, but there is still a chance?? Thanks

 

[tulah]

I'm all over Oregon this week
Also I'm very interested in the over
I think this one could reach high 70's
i'm hoping it comes out around 60

I totally agree with fatback
Auburn wins by at least 2 td's

Looks like another solid card
I'll be coattailing a few

GL Irish

 

[Irish]

Louisville (-24.5) over TCU W
The Cards have LOST all 3 meetings with TCU (Cardinals lost last November31-28)! TCU is not a good road team. TCU ranks 99th in scoring defense, allowing 33.25 points per game. TCU is 101st nationally in pass defense efficiency. Injuries have also been a problem for the horned frogs. Both QB's are not 100% healthy! Mix in a problem with the kicking game and it spells trouble.

Louisville is pretty tough at home with margins of victory of 28-0, 59-7 and 41-9. Granted these are against teams I feel are bad (Kentucky, SF and ECU)! I would think the coaching staff would have had the defense working extra hard after the Memphis offense was able to score all over them! At home the cardinals should come out fired up. The coaching staff will not take TCU lightly, look for the defense to create pressure. The TCU offense runs a lot of option type plays, which should play into the hands of a very athletic defense. TCU hasn't really played a tough team defense yet. AND TCU's defense should not be able to stop the Louisville offense.

GL
Irish

 

[bugsy]

Toledo/No. Ill UNDER (64) W

GL
Irish

Question....
anyone know the status of Stanton (sp?) QB for Mich St? Is he going to lace them up or is it Dowdell? What I have heard is he is a no go, but there is still a chance?? Thanks

Stanton is out. MAYBE next week, if not in Hawaii.

peace
bugsy

 

[hawkeye]

Like the oreg-purdue picks-oregon over is also a good play

 

[Irish]

Wiscy (-8) over MSU
Dowdell had a lot of time in the pocket against OSU, still could not move the offense with consistency! The Wisconsin defensive front will not give Dowdell a lot of time to throw the ball, if he is under pressure I expect him to throw into coverage and force things leading to turnovers! The badger defense showed me last week that they can stop a very strong run game of Minny, IMO the can stop the Spartans. Stocco showed a strong touch in the passing game last weekend. Add that with Davis and the Spartans will have a tough time on defense. I RESPECT MSU at home but still don't think they have the team to play with this badger squad. Wisconsin has the No. 1 scoring defense, the No. 2 pass defense and the No. 3 total defense!!!! Dowdell the 5th year back-up IMO will hurt the spartans all day.

GL
Irish

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this weekend Irish

toy

 

[Blackman]

Love the Wiscy play, best of luck.

 

[Master Capper]

good luck bud, I am on alot of the same plays

 

[AR182]

irish,

good call on the under last night.


continued success.

 

[Irish]

UL/TCU OVER (68) W

@ home on national TV, with zero defense against them, I can see 4 or 5 TD's by the starters and 3 by the back-ups. IMO TCU is good for about 14-21 points. Teams are noticing more and more they have to run up the score to get noticed for bowl games! looking at a 58-14 score :yup

GL
Irish

 

[bombercoops]

GL to you this weekend Irish! By the way, did you follow the Gaelic football a few weeks back?? You guys gave us aussies a serve!

 

[Irish]

not sure the match your talking about but if it was on a Rugby pitch it would have been a different story! like the greens chances in 06!
GL
to you this weekend

Cheers
Irish