What do you think about this strategy?

[KIKIN06]

I was on a trip from Argentina to Mexico , and with 9 hrs of flight , i had a lot of time to think about my betting strategies, and then this one came to my mind, so i want to share it with you and please help me with your thoughts :

1) There's a very little chance that a team goes all the season with a low margin of wins vs the spread, in some of the worst cases they cover the spread 35% of the games.

2) So the trick is to pick a team , anyone you like, that has a .400 or .500 record, so that spread lines should help a little more with this strategy, and most of the cases the team shows as a dog.

3) Now the strategy is to bet the team all the season or the rest of the season, for example right now i chose : New Jersey.

4) I bet $50 dollars to New jersey, if the team covers the spread, the next game of new jersey i bet the same amount $50, until they dont cover the spread.

5) the trick is to double the bet when they lose , 100, 200 , 400, 800, until they cover, theres a very small chance they will spend a lot of games until a cover comes, because if they are in a cold streak the books will place them as dogs giving a lot of points to them, they maybe lose the game but theres a big chance they cover. !

6) When they win the game, you start again with $50 dollars .

WHAT DO YOU THINK !

 

[rainman900]

Thats how you win at Roulette. Its called martingale ive looked into this aswell. I think for a team not to cover the whole season you need over 400,000$ betting 100$ a game and there is a 0.00000000003% chance of not doing it, its nuts. Its a VERY good idea if you have the bankroll.

 

[KIKIN06]

yes but in the roulette its diff i guess, let me tell you why :
Each spin of the wheel has the same chance to hit any number or color , in sports betting you have the adv of the books giving you a lot of points when you dont win 2 or 3 games in a row, its like if red hits 3 times in a row the casino places 3 more black numbres dont you think so!?

 

[JIMMYBOY]

it is very interesting kike, so you are going to try it with the nets?

good luck I am going to try it also,

jimmy

 

[rainman900]

Keep this secret....shhhhh

Casino Roulette wheels are designed so that a section wont hit more than 17 times in a row. The maximum for Black or Red to hit consecutivly is 16, the 17th will always change. If you have the bankroll you will win slowly each time.

I also do this on my betting strategy which is pretty solid. Check out my post for it. Im betting where losing 4 in a row is -4 units.

 

[Terthebear]

NET'S Will cover! & OVER!:iagree:

 

[snoozer]

you can do this with any team in any sport. If you look at all major betting sports (college football, NFL, NBA, college B-ball), most teams are going to be in the 40-60% range of covering. This is not a coincendence. Vegas knows what they are doing.

There are a few teams that buck this trend... For example Hawaii this year in college football. Vegas can afford to have a minimal amount of team buck the trend, because for every 1 team that goes 10 games in a row covering, there will be 1 team that goes 10 games without covering. I do not think most gamblers can afford to lose 10 games in a row with doubling their bet. What are the chances a team will go 10 games without covering? probably pretty small, but if you get unlucky, you are inj trouble.

If you are betting $50 a game, I am guessing your bankroll in not more than a couple thousand. You lose 6 games in a row and you are out over 3k. That is a lot of money to lose when your first bet was only $50.

Theoritically, you will make money, but you are only making minimal money, to me, it is not worth risking $200, $400, $800, $1600, when after you win, you will only be up an additional $50

 

[blgstocks]

you can do this with any team in any sport. If you look at all major betting sports (college football, NFL, NBA, college B-ball), most teams are going to be in the 40-60% range of covering. This is not a coincendence. Vegas knows what they are doing.

There are a few teams that buck this trend... For example Hawaii this year in college football. Vegas can afford to have a minimal amount of team buck the trend, because for every 1 team that goes 10 games in a row covering, there will be 1 team that goes 10 games without covering. I do not think most gamblers can afford to lose 10 games in a row with doubling their bet. What are the chances a team will go 10 games without covering? probably pretty small, but if you get unlucky, you are inj trouble.

If you are betting $50 a game, I am guessing your bankroll in not more than a couple thousand. You lose 6 games in a row and you are out over 3k. That is a lot of money to lose when your first bet was only $50.

Theoritically, you will make money, but you are only making minimal money, to me, it is not worth risking $200, $400, $800, $1600, when after you win, you will only be up an additional $50

Couldnt agree more

In fact, I think it is a very smart system but it wont work most likely, because you see teams get on cold streaks all the time and you need to win alot of games to make up for a cold streak that you have to cut your losses on. In fact you could win 40 $50 bets in a row and you would give it all back if a team goes on a slide of 7 or more and if they go on a streak of 8 better watch out. Problem is that this system has a huge probability of success but it takes that one small chance that it goes on a mean slide to where you can't cover ithe next bet to wipe out all of your winnings and what you started with to boot. Even though it is a very small chance this happens, there is no doubt that eventually it will happen. GL with your system though. I think it is very smart and the angle you are using is clever and I am sure there is some way to implement it successfully, but the martingale system of compounding risk will always eventually be a loser.

 

[layinwood]

Kikin, a better way to do this system is to find a team that is consistent about covering the spread. I'm not saying they cover a high %, just consistent. They never swing to far with wins or losses against the spread. So, what you do is find 5 or so teams(nba and bases are the best because there are so many games) You watch for those teams to have a set amount of losses against the spread and then you start with your system. A good example is the Mavs. If you take away the start of the year for the, first 4 games(You probably shouldn't be bettign those games anyways but even using those you still weren't too bad off) you wait for the Mavs to not cover 2 games in a row and then you start betting on them. The Suns are good for 2 games as well. Some teams like the Pistons are good for 3 losses and then doing it.

 

[KIKIN06]

Thanks guys for taking the time !
I also was thinking about betting 3 teams at the same time using this strategy and maybe starting with $25 bets, and skip when teams play each other, so that way you reduce the chance of geting into a one team cold streak

 

[JIMMYBOY]

The only way to make money out of sports is to be very discipline about money management.

You have to bet the same amount of money each play and play no more than to bets a day, that way it is more probable to make some bucks each week and not letting the books take it all in one day.

 

[snoozer]

I agree about money management, but I disagree about betting the same on each play. Many times lines are inflated because of public perception. The key is to do the homework and find solid plays. If there is a play you feel very strongly about, I do not think you should bet it the same as a play that you do not feel as strongly about.

 

[blgstocks]

I agree about money management, but I disagree about betting the same on each play. Many times lines are inflated because of public perception. The key is to do the homework and find solid plays. If there is a play you feel very strongly about, I do not think you should bet it the same as a play that you do not feel as strongly about.

I have heard good arguements on both sides of this debate about bet size. And I know consistent winners on both sides of the debate as well. But I think we all can agree that the bet should never be more than 20% of your roll at ANY time. I like to keep my bets at around 1-2% of my roll and will sometimes go as high as 5%(laying alot on a heavy ml fav). I think the main thing kikin is that this martingale system is the opposite of money management, and it will guarantee you go broke.

Please keep us up to date on tweaks to the system and new ideas, I for one really enjoy new ideas like this and I believe it can really benefit the whole forum. Again, gl on finding a way to implement your system.

 

[rainman900]

Couldnt agree more

In fact, I think it is a very smart system but it wont work most likely, because you see teams get on cold streaks all the time and you need to win alot of games to make up for a cold streak that you have to cut your losses on. In fact you could win 40 $50 bets in a row and you would give it all back if a team goes on a slide of 7 or more and if they go on a streak of 8 better watch out. Problem is that this system has a huge probability of success but it takes that one small chance that it goes on a mean slide to where you can't cover ithe next bet to wipe out all of your winnings and what you started with to boot. Even though it is a very small chance this happens, there is no doubt that eventually it will happen. GL with your system though. I think it is very smart and the angle you are using is clever and I am sure there is some way to implement it successfully, but the martingale system of compounding risk will always eventually be a loser.

Exactly, but in most cases the chance is worth taking isnt it?

I see what you mean and I think most people forget about the point spread. Who knows what the spread record is for the Phoenix Suns this year off the top of their head? If you were doing this moneyline 1:1 with no juice it would be a solid system and many people would do it.

If you have a consistent betting pattern you should have to worry about blowing it all. The key thing is to have a big enough bankroll to cover any losses.

 

[layinwood]

I've used the system I talked about in the NBA for the past 12 years and it has always been an easy money maker. It's an easy way to bet on the nba without a lot of time involved.

A friend of mine in college taught it to me. He use to play a lot of games based off of the teams overall win% against how many ats losses they had. He did quite well but I have too many things going on to spend that much time handicapping everyday. Of course there are a lot of things to take into consideration ie injuries.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

I thought of this strategy way back in high school or early college and then found out that others had already thought of it.

It makes a lot of sense in theory, but overall its just not a good idea.

Lets say you start off betting $10. The system may work several times in a row. But all you are doing is making $10 each time. These small gains are setting you up for a risk of a huge loss.

Over the course of an 82-game season, there is more than a slight chance of an 8-game losing streak. You have a decent chance of having thousands of dollars on the line just to win $10.

Think about flipping a coin 5 times. More than likely it won't be the same all 5 times. Think about flipping a coin 100 times. Now it doesn't seem that odd to have a streak of 5 or more on one side.

The system is pretty good if you have an unlimited bankroll. Not even I can lose 50 times in a row...or can I?

Anyway, just be careful. The small gains aren't worth the huge risks.

Also, with roulette and perhaps some books.....most have a minimum and maximum you can bet because they know about this strategy.

If they have a $10 min. and a $1,000 max.....
Either your going to make very lilttle money by making $10 for every "gain" and if you play long enough, there's a good chance to eventually hit an 8-game losing streak. At that point, you would need to bet $1,280 just to get the small gain, but you are only allowed to bet $1,000.
If the $1,000 loses, then your fuk'd....

Just my 2-3 cents....