Year Long Picks

[TLankford]

Don't post picks every week, so going to just do one thread. Have a couple this week that I'm pretty fond of:

Vanderbilt Team Total Under 19.5

USC should still be pretty stout on D even after losing 5 players in the draft (i think it was 5). Rodgers won't have much time to sit back and throw. Like the whole game to go under, but more confident in Vandy not scoring too much than taking a risk on USC having big plays ruin the total. With no proven WRs for Shaw to throw to, Latt should be grinding away the clock/chains to the tune of 30 carries. Zac Stacy should be getting a lot of carries in this one as well.

Auburn/Clemson Under 56.5

Questionable OLines. Good DLines. AU OC said he's going to ground and pound. Watkins out takes away the main big play threat for CU. Don't think either team is going to be able to sustain that many drives with it being the first game for each starting OL unit. Too many little blown assignments or false starts/holds that stall teams out

:0003

 

[#cruncher]

You made them both sound very tempting.

 

[TLankford]

Nice to hit the first big play of the year :00hour

Have been waiting on 1st Half lines to come out with two specific ones in mind. Both of them came out a few points better than I thought, although I may lay off and play the 1H TT on one instead. Other one I'm locking in:

Bama 1st half -7.5

Give Saban this long to prepare for anyone and he's gonna throw a defensive scheme out there that ruins the opposing offense. Between Bama's OL, which is probably the best in the country, and AJ looking real solid in the BCS game last year I don't see Mich forcing too many punts this game. They'll be good to hold Bama to FGs. Think this game will be around 24-10 at half, maybe worse.

USC 1H -25 is gonna be a play

Planning on taking USC 1st Half in damn near every game. Except probably Oregon. Other than the ducks, USCs 1st team is just that much better than the rest of the teams they play.

 

[TLankford]

Good 4-0 start to the year. have a feeling I'm going to be on a lot of Bama/USC 1H lines.

Hate AU couldn't pull out the W last night

 

[TLankford]

Wasn't around a computer last weekend but the only thing I would have posted was LSU 1st Half. Didn't like the card too much.

Have two plays locked in and not sure if I'll have anymore or not at this point:

Bama -20.5

wanted to get this one before it got any higher. As far as I know there's no official word on Wilson at this point but it would be an irresponsible move on JLS's part to risk further injury. Regardless of him playing, Arkansas defense has looked horrible this year and Bama should have no trouble scoring. Arkansas's offense, particularly their run game has been very unimpressive this year. Not good against a Bama team you won't be able to keep honest. And Arkansas has averaged 13 ppg in this matchup since 08. Don't see any way for them to keep it close against a well-coached team that won't be shaken on the road.

Don't normally do too many 3 game teases. I do like this one a lot and wanted to go ahead and jump on it as well:

Texas A&M -3 / Texas -0.5 / Bama -10.5

All three teams should cover their original spreads for the game, and a parlay would have much better payout, but I'd rather go with a "safe" play.

Might have a couple more by Saturday. Couple I'm looking more into are:

Tennessee -3
EMAW -28
Wake +27.5
OSU -17

 

[TLankford]

Glad I went to the golf course and didn't put in anymore plays until the late games.

2-0 on posted plays this week

6-0 Overall

 

[TLankford]

Texas A&M -3 / Texas -0.5 / Bama -10.5

All three teams should cover their original spreads for the game, and a parlay would have much better payout, but I'd rather go with a "safe" play.

:facepalm: Scared to parlay them....

 

[TLankford]

Gonna go ahead and lock this one in now. Not that I'm worried about the line going up, because it would have to double to make me even have doubts about it, but that I don't want to overthink the game. Just like when the ULM line came out last week at +17 and myself and everyone I know said wow ULM is a lock, then started over-thinking the game and ended up not taking it. So I'm taking it now.

LSU -18.5 over Auburn

Not even sure this requires an explanation if you have seen the Auburn play this year. LSU will be able to name the score. Auburn is probably going to get shut out at home for the first time since the SC game in 2003. Our defense is lost, soft as shit, and can't tackle. I would imagine LSU's stable of sick RBs goes for upwards of 250 yards Saturday. They very well could have 3 different 100 yard rushers. Our LBs are small or talentless. The ones with talent are too stupid to learn the playbook. Our DTs are soft as hell and get doubled every play because the offense realizes they don't need to block our LBs. Our secondary is young and makes too many mistakes. Beckham will probably have 100+ yards receiving. Metten looked really solid against Washington, whose defense is probably better than Auburn's. Our safeties are the best tacklers on the team, very impressed with Whitehead in run support. However, they bite on EVERY play action fake you give them. It's led to several TDs this year.

I don't even know where to start with our offense. We don't have a QB. You just can't win without one. Our only strength is running in the I-formation behind our monster Fullback, Prosch. We average around 8 ypc when in the I-form. The problem? Our OC apparently hasn't gotten the goddamn memo. We run out of the I about 1/3 of the time. Against Mississippi State we didn't see Prosch consistently on the field until the 3rd quarter. The problem with the matchup in this game is that LSU's front 7 is going to eat us alive. They can afford to put 8 in the box all game because we don't have a Quarterback who is even remotely a threat to anyone.

Taking out the stats from the UL-M Game, because they really shouldn't count as an opponent for stat purposes... you ready for this? Auburn is averaging 1.9 INCHES PER PLAY in the redzone. That's correct. Against the vaunted Clemson defense and a pretty good MSU defense, 1.9 INCHES per play, once we get in the redzone. 1 Offensive touchdown against BCS opponents. ONE. and it was a 70 yard TD pass where Emory Blake was wide ass open.

Game will be very similar to the Bama-Arkansas game on Saturday. Our team has already been talking about players quitting when we get down - a la MSU game in the 4th quarter. And why wouldn't they? Against MSU, down by 11 in the 3rd quarter, we are calling QB draws on 3rd and Long. We are so scared to make a mistake we just try to "weather the storm"... it's pathetic. Whole team is soft and you can't be soft against a team full of jungle monsters like LSU.

It sucks a big fat one to have to do a write up like this, because our team right now really is in shambles. But at least I will get paid to get drunk and angry on Saturday.

The likely progression looks something like this:

:drinky:

:weed:

:s6:

:cuss:

:0002

:facepalm:

:sadwave:

:s2:

 

[TLankford]

Auburn Defense everybody... Line up 10 players on one side of the ball? SUUUUUUUUURE!!!!!

:facepalm:

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/ING7u0sWL2Y" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

 

[Betone]

I locked and loaded this morning :0074

 

[TLankford]

Betone. It is gonna be a LOOOOONG last 9 weeks of the season. Whiskey stock is on the rise.

How pathetic is this: in order to beat UL-Monroe at home in overtime..... Auburn needed:

A trick play double-pass touchdown
A Hail mary touchdown before halftime
And TWO blocked field goals

:scared

 

[Betone]

Betone. It is gonna be a LOOOOONG last 9 weeks of the season. Whiskey stock is on the rise.

How pathetic is this: in order to beat UL-Monroe at home in overtime..... Auburn needed:

A trick play double-pass touchdown
A Hail mary touchdown before halftime
And TWO blocked field goals

:scared

I was at peace with my ULM bet last week. I actually laughed a few times watching the def all line up on one side and the hail Mary pass. This is the most undisciplined Auburn team I have ever seen.
I am with you bro, the liquor will flow while the beatings persist :toast:

 

[harlytiger]

There is terrable character coaching these days.
The defensive minded head coach has arguably had the worse defenses in Auburn history. If we cannot get patrino, harbaugh, or maybe carroll then lets keep Chiz and have a great season every 4 years.

 

[TLankford]

If we cannot get patrino, harbaugh, or maybe carroll then lets keep Chiz and have a great season when Cam has a child football star.

fixed your post.

I'm convinced of 2 things:

1 - Tubberville ran the defense when Chizik was there. Chizik is not a good defensive coach and benefited from AU dominating in-state recruiting while Bama was on probation.

2 - Chizik had nothing but 5* kids to work with at Texas. Not hard to run a defense when you cherry pick your players and the rest of the staff is good

We don't tackle in practice. Paul Rhodes said ISU was the worst tackling team he'd ever seen when he got on campus. AU has had the worst tackling I've seen in 28 years since Chiz got here.

My dad and a couple of his buddies went to a couple of scrimmages for donors in fall practice. Bo Jackson told them that we don't hit in practice. :facepalm: Little brother's friends have all told me they talk to players regularly in class and around campus and heard the exact same thing. Our team went full speed tackling this year in fall practice for literally 3 practices... How the hell do you expect them to be able to tackle when they don't practice it.

Watch our special teams. The freshmen on STs are the best tacklers on the team. That's cause they haven't been here long enough to forget how to do it. Ricardo Louis is the best tackler on the team. True Freshman

 

[TLankford]

6-1 after that L.

Can't believe we couldn't take a game LSU was trying to give us. Muffed punt hurt big time. Dropped TD pass on the 2nd play of the game coulda been huge.

mincy, holsey, therezie and florence are players. our DTs finally showed up. Just need to play nickel and get Hollands terrible ass off the field on D and we'll be okay.

Hopefully catch a few points in the Arkansas game I'll probably be taking AU in that one

 

[TLankford]

One play so far for this weekend.

Arizona -135

Have watched Arizona and Oregon State play a couple of games. Arizona's loss to Oregon last week wasn't as bad as the score indicated. Their defense looked good in the 1st half and was on the field the entire 2nd half. Redzone problems killed them. Pick 6s in garbage time made the score look that much worse. I'm not a believer in Oregon State, maybe at home... they are tough. But nobody in the right mind should have thought UCLA was the #19 team in the country. Just like Oregon State isn't the #18 team in the country. Wisconsin and UCLA? No. Two mediocre teams they have beaten by a combined 10 points. Game also fits into the "Unranked home team favored over a ranked road team" trend.

Taking the better team at home.

Looking at UGA -13. Offense is clicking and the defense is good.

 

[TLankford]

laying off UGA. You never know when they are gonna pizza when they should have french fried. Always do it at least 1 game a year.

Do have 2 other plays that I like because of some RLM and as situational plays.

Washington +7.5 -135

stanfords 1st road game. washington 8-1 at home last 2 years. conference home dog. thursday night home dog. sarkisian 6-0 ATS with 7+ days to prepare and average cover of 11 points. also a strange trend the last couple weeks of Pinny vs. Bovada lines: if Pinny's lines are 1 point lower, the dog has been covering at a really good clip. This line is already down to 6.5 at Pinny and almost even money. Bovada still sitting strong at 7. Just a trend I'm keeping an eye on, not the basis for the play.

NCState +120

Let down spot for Miami after a big road upset win over GTech. Miami's home field advantage is non-existent. Glennon has had 2 weeks to get his shit together and figure out how to throw it to his own team and not the defense. If he doesn't throw picks in this game wolfpack should win by 7+


probably it for me

 

[TLankford]

Just to elaborate on the Pinny vs. Bovada trend that was pointed out to me today, and if it's been discussed here and subsequently been disproven - by all means say something. As the only data I've been shown was this year's CFB and a couple weeks of NFL.

ex: Pinnacle had 49ers at -6.5 on sunday. Bovada at -7.5. 1 whole point difference. Dog covered

if you take the dog in this scenario, where Pinny has the favorite 1 whole point lower than Bovada (essentially moving the line down to trap a square) you would be:

NFL week 3: 3-1 (wins on minny, tb, oak. loss houston)

CFB week 4: 4-1. w = MD, FIU, troy, akron. l = tcu

CFB week 3: 5-1. w = kansas, pitt, ulm, north texas, notre dame. L = okie light

CFB week 2: 8-4. w = ball state, wku, cuse, oregon state, akron, fresno, ucla, texas. L = msu, cmich, lsu, uk.

Like I said it's very limited sample size and may have been discussed at some point in the past, but it's something I'm keeping my eye on.

thoughts/opinions on this are very welcomed as I have never been much of a trend bettor, but winners are winners

 

[TLankford]

7-3 after a couple of tough Ls on NCST and Zona

Waiting for the Auburn/Arkansas total to come out on my site. Will probably take the Under if it is 54 or better. People probably expecting a shootout due to how bad our defenses are, but I am pretty sure this will be more of a ball control game.

Seeing a 24-20 type game.

Also leaning towards KState, Mississippi State and ND; but no wagers placed yet

 

[TLankford]

Went ahead and put in a few today:

Auburn/Arkansas Under 54.5

Don't like being on the other side of Hawkeye on a total, but just because Arkansas's defense is bad doesn't mean Auburn is going to score TDs. We're still one of the worst redzone offenses in the country. And we might have the best kicker in the country, who chizik has tons of confidence in, so he plays even more conservative once we're in FG range - knowing that 3 points is in the bag. Our defense is finally coming around. We had 5 players who got the majority of snaps at their position against LSU that didn't see the field in the season opener. Younger, more talented guys finally picking up the system, especially in the secondary. Our DL should cause serious problems for Wilson all game since he is no real run threat. Between AU running ball control offense and sputtering in the redzone, and Arkansas only option being to dink and dunk it down the field... a few redzone FGs and this game is going to be a lot lower scoring than people think.

ND -13

Have watched Miami beat two really really bad ACC teams their last two times out. Have also watched ND shut down and control the ball on Mich and MSU in the last two of their games I've watched. I don't think ND is "back" necessarily, but I think they have a really stingy defense that doesn't give up big plays (only way UM ever scores) and ND's offense, for the most part, takes care of the ball. I liked the way a lower-tier ACC offense in NCST moved the ball against UM last week, to the tune of 665 yards. KState put up 52 points on 500 yards offense. Even BC's pedestrian offense got over 500 yards on UM's defense. I don't see ND having the offensive slowed down like they did against UM/MSU - who actually play in a conference that plays defense. Miami has absolutely no run game whatsoever. Once UM gets behind and Morris is forced to throw the ball I expect to see a few turnovers and a lot of punts. Expecting somewhere along the lines of the KState-UM score

LSU -135

Not sold on the Gators yet. I think they have the better QB in Driskell. I also think LSU has the front 4 to contain him. UF hasn't really shown the ability to stop anyone on the ground, besides UT who doesn't have a run game in the first place. I think LSU was sleepwalking in to JHS when they played Auburn and it is impossible to give a shit when you play Towson. This is one of their 3 big games this year and I think they'll come out with a lot more intensity than the last two weeks. Pretty good opportunity for a buy Low on LSU and sell High on UF.

1H lines not out yet. If I remember to I'll come back and post the actual line I get, but this is definitely going to be a play the second they come out.

1H South Carolina moneyline

Assuming it will probably be -0.5 since the line is currently -1. Will take the ML just in case there is a tie. UGA, in every game but the Vandy (who we all know now is still fuckin Vandy) has been a 2nd half team. They've done the majority of their damage this year in the 3rd quarter. Probably due to Richt being a good in-game coach and making half-time adjustments. On the other hand, you really cannot look at the USC-UK game's 1st half and take anything from it. Pretty obvious it was a look ahead game for USC and they played sloppy, uninspired football the first half. You have to assume that won't be the case this week and Steve will not only have his team fired up, but will have a couple of ole ball coach tricks up his sleeve. USC has the better defense, and UGA lost not only a guy who is their best catching WR, but also their best Run Blocking WR. I have a feeling UGA's offense doesn't come out too hot in this game, as both teams probably start off conservative and try to avoid big mistakes. USC should be able to move the ball at will against that defense. And if you've paid attention the last two times they've played, Lattimore loves playing against these "elite" UGA defenses (175+ yard games in his Fr and So years)

Probably it for my plays. I'm sure I'll tail a few of the guys on this site for a few action plays