Year Long Picks
- Thread starter TLankford
- Start date
Easy pickins on that AU Under. Figured our offense would score more than 7 but damn... :facepalm:
1-0 start to the day. Need the Bengal Tigaahs to bring it.
USC 1H moneyline is -115 for only night play at the moment.
Leaning towards Texas/WV Under but having trouble pulling the trigger
1-0 start to the day. Need the Bengal Tigaahs to bring it.
USC 1H moneyline is -115 for only night play at the moment.
Leaning towards Texas/WV Under but having trouble pulling the trigger
3-1 on the day
10-4 on the year now.
2 of the losses on LSU. They are dead to me. Probably take USCe moneyline next week. only reason LSU has a chance at winning is the game being at night in BR
South Carolina is the truth. Winner of USC/UF may be the 3rd best team in the country. not convinced by FSU.
Edit: just turned on FSU game and NCST giving them everything they can handle. :142smilie
10-4 on the year now.
2 of the losses on LSU. They are dead to me. Probably take USCe moneyline next week. only reason LSU has a chance at winning is the game being at night in BR
South Carolina is the truth. Winner of USC/UF may be the 3rd best team in the country. not convinced by FSU.
Edit: just turned on FSU game and NCST giving them everything they can handle. :142smilie
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Got a few plays I'm gonna put in early. Really like this week's card too.
Thursday:
Arizona State -22
Been on ASU the last 4 weeks. Gonna keep riding the train until it derails. Colorado is one of the worst BCS football teams in the country. I don't think their Home field is much of an advantage. ASU has been playing solid defense, Taylor Kelly is a solid QB with high completion % and they have a really balanced offense. Graham has this team moving in the right direction. Have it capped around 49 - 17 Sundevils
Saturday:
South Carolina +3.5 (-130)
Really like the way USC's defense is playing. Mettenburger has already shown that when teams load the box to stop the run he isn't ready to beat anyone yet. Part of it goes to OLine injuries. Their run game isn't what it was last year either because of this. I think the way Gillislee looked saturday is about what Lattimore looks like this Saturday. Shaw is completing over 75% of his passes this year. Spurrier has that offense in machine mode. Yea the game being at night in Baton Rouge is scary. But not enough to where I'd actually have LSU favored to win the game. Big play will be on the + but will have a little on the ML as well.
2-Game Moneyline Parlay:
West Virginia -185 / Florida -290 Pays +107
West Virginia line is shady. Looks like a trap. I know one book has it at 6 (i think betus) and everywhere else is 4.5. WV is gonna score on everybody until they play Bama in the NCG. I think they can make enough stops / turnovers to win this one by DDs. OU already brought TTech down to earth last week. Lubbock is not some scary place to play and WV just got finished pulling out a huge win in Austin. I doubt Baylor's offense is much different from TTech's.
Florida is gonna beat Vandy. It would take some kind of divine intervention for them not to. Gators should pitch a shutout. Let's face it, Vandy is Vandy again this year. Decent amount of preseason hype. Fair showing in the opener vs. USC. Thrashing by UGA told me all I needed to know about Vandy this year. The fact that this game is sandwiched between two huge matchups and on the road is the only reason I'm taking the ML over the chalk.
Might have one more play this week.
Thursday:
Arizona State -22
Been on ASU the last 4 weeks. Gonna keep riding the train until it derails. Colorado is one of the worst BCS football teams in the country. I don't think their Home field is much of an advantage. ASU has been playing solid defense, Taylor Kelly is a solid QB with high completion % and they have a really balanced offense. Graham has this team moving in the right direction. Have it capped around 49 - 17 Sundevils
Saturday:
South Carolina +3.5 (-130)
Really like the way USC's defense is playing. Mettenburger has already shown that when teams load the box to stop the run he isn't ready to beat anyone yet. Part of it goes to OLine injuries. Their run game isn't what it was last year either because of this. I think the way Gillislee looked saturday is about what Lattimore looks like this Saturday. Shaw is completing over 75% of his passes this year. Spurrier has that offense in machine mode. Yea the game being at night in Baton Rouge is scary. But not enough to where I'd actually have LSU favored to win the game. Big play will be on the + but will have a little on the ML as well.
2-Game Moneyline Parlay:
West Virginia -185 / Florida -290 Pays +107
West Virginia line is shady. Looks like a trap. I know one book has it at 6 (i think betus) and everywhere else is 4.5. WV is gonna score on everybody until they play Bama in the NCG. I think they can make enough stops / turnovers to win this one by DDs. OU already brought TTech down to earth last week. Lubbock is not some scary place to play and WV just got finished pulling out a huge win in Austin. I doubt Baylor's offense is much different from TTech's.
Florida is gonna beat Vandy. It would take some kind of divine intervention for them not to. Gators should pitch a shutout. Let's face it, Vandy is Vandy again this year. Decent amount of preseason hype. Fair showing in the opener vs. USC. Thrashing by UGA told me all I needed to know about Vandy this year. The fact that this game is sandwiched between two huge matchups and on the road is the only reason I'm taking the ML over the chalk.
Might have one more play this week.
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Yessah love starting off with a big W on Thursday
YTD: 11-4
Have way too many people telling me I'm wrong about the USC-LSU game. The only rebuttals I'm getting are historical trends:
Les miles blah blah losing 2 in a row
LSU blah blah at home at night = only one that has any bearing on the actual game
USC never runs the table blah blah they blow a big game a year
Spurrier coached USC teams blah blah coming off a big win
Nothing that will actually affect the game besides Baton Rouge at night. Which is a scary factor. I think the first team to 17 wins the game. And I don't see either team winning by DDs. Both play too good of defense and both coaches will call the game conservative because of those defenses. I honestly think USC's defense is better than LSU's and Shaw >>>>> Mett.
gotta stick to my guns and tell these people to fuck off and hope the Cocks pull through so I can get in everyone's face like
YTD: 11-4
Have way too many people telling me I'm wrong about the USC-LSU game. The only rebuttals I'm getting are historical trends:
Les miles blah blah losing 2 in a row
LSU blah blah at home at night = only one that has any bearing on the actual game
USC never runs the table blah blah they blow a big game a year
Spurrier coached USC teams blah blah coming off a big win
Nothing that will actually affect the game besides Baton Rouge at night. Which is a scary factor. I think the first team to 17 wins the game. And I don't see either team winning by DDs. Both play too good of defense and both coaches will call the game conservative because of those defenses. I honestly think USC's defense is better than LSU's and Shaw >>>>> Mett.
gotta stick to my guns and tell these people to fuck off and hope the Cocks pull through so I can get in everyone's face like
Got one more play this week. Been waiting for the line to come out and it didn't come with the first wave of 1st Half lines for some reason. Biggest play of the week.
Bama 1st half -13.5
Don't feel like typing up a long explanation for this one. bama is just that much better than mizzou. Bama may take their foot off the gas in the 2H but they will be full speed the first 2 quarters. Put it out of reach. Rest people late in the game. I don't think Mizzou gets in the end zone in the 1H
GL
Bama 1st half -13.5
Don't feel like typing up a long explanation for this one. bama is just that much better than mizzou. Bama may take their foot off the gas in the 2H but they will be full speed the first 2 quarters. Put it out of reach. Rest people late in the game. I don't think Mizzou gets in the end zone in the 1H
GL
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Little ML (and one spread buy) Parlay. Not counting it towards the record or anything just posting it for shits and giggles
pays 14.5 - 1
Texas +7.5 -205
UNC -310
Kent State -135
Rutgers -300
UF -350
Omiss -230
ND -280
Cal -280
:shrug:
Don't see any of the ML teams losing and hopefully Texas can keep within a TD or even win SU
opcorn2
pays 14.5 - 1
Texas +7.5 -205
UNC -310
Kent State -135
Rutgers -300
UF -350
Omiss -230
ND -280
Cal -280
:shrug:
Don't see any of the ML teams losing and hopefully Texas can keep within a TD or even win SU
opcorn2
Am going to add one more official play for the day to complete the card:
Auburn TT Under 21.5
Simply put, I don't think we can score 21+ points on anyone at this point in time. You can easily make an argument that our offense has regressed throughout the season. Ole miss is not a pushover this year. Auburn is horrible on the road. Even worse when you add a noon kickoff to the equation. I have no idea how our defense will fare, especially since I've read that dee ford is out for the game. Hurts a lot as OM can double Lemonier and take our sacks/qb pressure out of the equation. This would make me lean heavily towards OMiss -6 as a good play. I just don't feel like betting on it. Somehow our defense could come out and make redzone stops and keep OMiss from putting up a lot of scores. D is too much of a wildcard. our offense, however, is not. by the way... Clint Moseley is the starter. He has a fettuccine arm and if you watched AU's shit show at all last year, you know exactly what you're gonna get with him at the helm. He's slow, immobile, has a weak/inaccurate arm, and is so MFing scared in the pocket it's sickening. Rewatch the Arkansas 2nd half and notice whenever a DL/LB is within 3 yards of him, he prematurely goes into fetal position to brace for the sack instead of trying to scramble. It's quite a pitiful sight. Once again like the arkansas game we'll play ball control on offense and go super conservative in the redzone because of our turnover problems.
Oh one more thing. The always looming factor of a possible big play on STs, i.e.- McCaleb running a KO back... yea we took him off KO Return duties and put Bray back there instead. Why? I don't know. Here's a stat for you:
In Auburn's last 4 SEC games, # of TDs scored:
McCaleb kickoff returns: 2
Total by the Offense: 2
solution? Take OMac off kickoff team. makes sense right? :facepalm:
So the card is:
AU TT Un21.5
USC +3.5
Bama 1H -13.5
Parlay WV -185 / UF -290
GL
Auburn TT Under 21.5
Simply put, I don't think we can score 21+ points on anyone at this point in time. You can easily make an argument that our offense has regressed throughout the season. Ole miss is not a pushover this year. Auburn is horrible on the road. Even worse when you add a noon kickoff to the equation. I have no idea how our defense will fare, especially since I've read that dee ford is out for the game. Hurts a lot as OM can double Lemonier and take our sacks/qb pressure out of the equation. This would make me lean heavily towards OMiss -6 as a good play. I just don't feel like betting on it. Somehow our defense could come out and make redzone stops and keep OMiss from putting up a lot of scores. D is too much of a wildcard. our offense, however, is not. by the way... Clint Moseley is the starter. He has a fettuccine arm and if you watched AU's shit show at all last year, you know exactly what you're gonna get with him at the helm. He's slow, immobile, has a weak/inaccurate arm, and is so MFing scared in the pocket it's sickening. Rewatch the Arkansas 2nd half and notice whenever a DL/LB is within 3 yards of him, he prematurely goes into fetal position to brace for the sack instead of trying to scramble. It's quite a pitiful sight. Once again like the arkansas game we'll play ball control on offense and go super conservative in the redzone because of our turnover problems.
Oh one more thing. The always looming factor of a possible big play on STs, i.e.- McCaleb running a KO back... yea we took him off KO Return duties and put Bray back there instead. Why? I don't know. Here's a stat for you:
In Auburn's last 4 SEC games, # of TDs scored:
McCaleb kickoff returns: 2
Total by the Offense: 2
solution? Take OMac off kickoff team. makes sense right? :facepalm:
So the card is:
AU TT Un21.5
USC +3.5
Bama 1H -13.5
Parlay WV -185 / UF -290
GL
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Little ML (and one spread buy) Parlay. Not counting it towards the record or anything just posting it for shits and giggles
pays 14.5 - 1
Texas +7.5 -205
UNC -310
Kent State -135
Rutgers -300
UF -350
Omiss -230
ND -280
Cal -280
:shrug:
Don't see any of the ML teams losing and hopefully Texas can keep within a TD or even win SU
Only one that scares me is army...
Besides that looks good
yea i've read at least 5 army-kent threads on various boards. i think kent is the right side. or i hope at least
Week 4-1
YTD 14-5
Missed that ML parlay by 1 damn game. Fucking Texas. Don't know why I keep taking Texas fans' posts serious on various message boards. Every week "the matchups are in their favor" :mj07:
YTD 14-5
Missed that ML parlay by 1 damn game. Fucking Texas. Don't know why I keep taking Texas fans' posts serious on various message boards. Every week "the matchups are in their favor" :mj07:
Haven't placed any bets yet, but leans this week:
ASU +8 - just because I've bet on them every week and they haven't lost yet for me.
Auburn-Vandy Under 44.5 - finally starting our black MLB over the worst defensive player in the SEC. Vandy plays good D at home.
LSU -160. Better team. Probably can force a mistake or two out of a Fr QB
Oregon State -10. corvalis is tough. OSU beating up on similar talent so far this year
will have 2-3 plays from these probably. not a huge fan of the card this week
ASU +8 - just because I've bet on them every week and they haven't lost yet for me.
Auburn-Vandy Under 44.5 - finally starting our black MLB over the worst defensive player in the SEC. Vandy plays good D at home.
LSU -160. Better team. Probably can force a mistake or two out of a Fr QB
Oregon State -10. corvalis is tough. OSU beating up on similar talent so far this year
will have 2-3 plays from these probably. not a huge fan of the card this week
Thankfully laid off ASU last night. Was hard to do but damn Oregon's offense looks good. If ASU's D couldn't slow them down, I'm not sure anyone will until they play Bama in Miami.
Only 3 plays this week and a little teaser that should probably be a parlay.
ND-BYU Under 41.5
Bought 1.5 points just because I like having 41 on my side. I think there is no need for it, but I don't mind a little security juice. Neither Offense is anything special here. And both Ds are pretty stout, although BYU has faced shit-tier competition compared to ND, and OSU hung 42 on them last week. I don't think ND offense is capable of putting up 42 on their own, but I'm not seeing BYU score any TDs. Maybe a couple of FGs but their FG kicker has been garbage in games I watched
Tennessee TT Under 17.5
Since Saban has been there, even counting that shit team he inherited in 2007 that lost to ULM and MSU, Tennessee has never scored more than 17 against him. 17 exactly in 2007 which was Saban coaching a bunch of garbage, probation players. Since getting a full year of coaching his players, Tennessee has scored a whopping 2 TDs in the last 4 meetings combined. This game sets up a matchup that a secondary D coach like Saban is licking his chops for. Bray will get eaten alive and probably look a lot like he did in the 2H of the UF game. Home field really counts for not shit in this one as the 3rd saturday in october has become some kind of joke other than the rocky block game.
Miami TT Under 18
Was torn between taking FSU -21 or Miami TT Under. I decided to take FSU's jeckle and hyde offense out of the equation. Never know when the Noles are gonna Jimbo one up out there. That defense is stout though. Only given up 17+ once and that was pretty much 1 half against Clemson where Dabo threw every trick play in the book at them. Conversely in the 3 games Miami has played against actual D1 defenses, they have scored: 13, 3 and 14. I don't think Miami will be able to sustain a drive in this game.
3-Game 10pt Teaser: (last time I did one of these I got mad I should have parlayed instead) :nono:
Clemson +2.5 / South Carolina +13.5 / EMAW +12.5
I do like all three of these to cover straight up without the points. I just don't like putting 6 plays out. Clemson should be able to light up VT's defense, but Clemson's D you really have no idea what they are going to do for you. I'd rather not lay more than a TD there but could see them blowing the doors off VT.
Gamecocks are a feisty little team. Shaw is a player other than what 1 brain fart against LSU. Lattimore is strong and his hip is supposed to be fine. Just your standard SEC October bruises. That Defense won't let a team run away with a game.
EMAW is EMAW. Love Snyder. Love Klein. Injuries to WV Corner and a couple in the front 7 if what I read was true. Few extra freshmen on the field tomorrow on defense. Think Snyder can play some ball control and keep this game very close or maybe a replay of the TTech game last week.
Really want to pull the trigger on Texas A&M moneyline (I know I said LSU earlier in the week was a lean) but Manziel is solid as you can ask for in a TrFr. LSU coming off a huge game in the middle of a tough stretch this month. Just can't do it.
Those 4 are it for the weekend. GL
:toast:
Only 3 plays this week and a little teaser that should probably be a parlay.
ND-BYU Under 41.5
Bought 1.5 points just because I like having 41 on my side. I think there is no need for it, but I don't mind a little security juice. Neither Offense is anything special here. And both Ds are pretty stout, although BYU has faced shit-tier competition compared to ND, and OSU hung 42 on them last week. I don't think ND offense is capable of putting up 42 on their own, but I'm not seeing BYU score any TDs. Maybe a couple of FGs but their FG kicker has been garbage in games I watched
Tennessee TT Under 17.5
Since Saban has been there, even counting that shit team he inherited in 2007 that lost to ULM and MSU, Tennessee has never scored more than 17 against him. 17 exactly in 2007 which was Saban coaching a bunch of garbage, probation players. Since getting a full year of coaching his players, Tennessee has scored a whopping 2 TDs in the last 4 meetings combined. This game sets up a matchup that a secondary D coach like Saban is licking his chops for. Bray will get eaten alive and probably look a lot like he did in the 2H of the UF game. Home field really counts for not shit in this one as the 3rd saturday in october has become some kind of joke other than the rocky block game.
Miami TT Under 18
Was torn between taking FSU -21 or Miami TT Under. I decided to take FSU's jeckle and hyde offense out of the equation. Never know when the Noles are gonna Jimbo one up out there. That defense is stout though. Only given up 17+ once and that was pretty much 1 half against Clemson where Dabo threw every trick play in the book at them. Conversely in the 3 games Miami has played against actual D1 defenses, they have scored: 13, 3 and 14. I don't think Miami will be able to sustain a drive in this game.
3-Game 10pt Teaser: (last time I did one of these I got mad I should have parlayed instead) :nono:
Clemson +2.5 / South Carolina +13.5 / EMAW +12.5
I do like all three of these to cover straight up without the points. I just don't like putting 6 plays out. Clemson should be able to light up VT's defense, but Clemson's D you really have no idea what they are going to do for you. I'd rather not lay more than a TD there but could see them blowing the doors off VT.
Gamecocks are a feisty little team. Shaw is a player other than what 1 brain fart against LSU. Lattimore is strong and his hip is supposed to be fine. Just your standard SEC October bruises. That Defense won't let a team run away with a game.
EMAW is EMAW. Love Snyder. Love Klein. Injuries to WV Corner and a couple in the front 7 if what I read was true. Few extra freshmen on the field tomorrow on defense. Think Snyder can play some ball control and keep this game very close or maybe a replay of the TTech game last week.
Really want to pull the trigger on Texas A&M moneyline (I know I said LSU earlier in the week was a lean) but Manziel is solid as you can ask for in a TrFr. LSU coming off a huge game in the middle of a tough stretch this month. Just can't do it.
Those 4 are it for the weekend. GL
:toast:
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dumb to play teasers. should have just taken clemson like I wanted to and left the south carolina alone.
1-1 on the day with 2 pending
should have also played that Auburn-Vandy under. way too easy on Auburn Unders this year...
1-1 on the day with 2 pending
should have also played that Auburn-Vandy under. way too easy on Auburn Unders this year...
BS touchdown by miami with less than a minute left cost me a winning day. hate garbage TDs but it is what it is.
week: 2-2
YTD: 16-7
week: 2-2
YTD: 16-7
initial leans this week:
thursday:
Clemson -13 / Wake
saturday:
Johnny Football -14 / Gene
White Mike Vick -6.5 / Saint Richt
Shoelace +3 / Bo Pelini
Ball Coach -14 / DooLOLey
Boise-Wyoming Under
Freeze +6.5 / JohnL Smith (hope to get a 7-7.5)
Probably be a very big play depending on the line:
Oregon 1H / Colorado.
Buffs are just aweful. Playing in Autzen. Oregon is a lot better than I have given them credit for this year. QB is a beast. Varner and DAT are both nasty. Game should be well out of hand by halftime. @ -46 for the whole game, I'm assuming the line will be in the -31 ballpark. This should not be a problem for that offensive machine
Hopefully trim these down to 4-5 plays.
:0003
thursday:
Clemson -13 / Wake
saturday:
Johnny Football -14 / Gene
White Mike Vick -6.5 / Saint Richt
Shoelace +3 / Bo Pelini
Ball Coach -14 / DooLOLey
Boise-Wyoming Under
Freeze +6.5 / JohnL Smith (hope to get a 7-7.5)
Probably be a very big play depending on the line:
Oregon 1H / Colorado.
Buffs are just aweful. Playing in Autzen. Oregon is a lot better than I have given them credit for this year. QB is a beast. Varner and DAT are both nasty. Game should be well out of hand by halftime. @ -46 for the whole game, I'm assuming the line will be in the -31 ballpark. This should not be a problem for that offensive machine
Hopefully trim these down to 4-5 plays.
:0003
After doing quite a bit of reading up on the game tomorrow night, I'm gonna play the total instead of a side.
Clemson/Wake Over 58.5
Banged up Clemson secondary. Michael Campanaro supposed to be back for WF which makes a pretty big difference on Offense / STs. Combination of him being back and Clemsons injuries should translate into a couple more scores for WF. Clemson's offense wears people out with fast tempo. They've put up some high numbers against better defenses. I think they're good for 42. Hopefully Wake can add 17 of their own. Maybe i can predict this TNF game close like last time... 45 - 24 Clemson. :0corn
Gonna wait on the rest until friday afternoon / saturday morning. Probably gonna lay off the Michigan and OMiss games unless some people I know are high on them closer to the weekend.
Looking at Texas A&M and possibly Texas A&M Team Total as big plays. Mobile QB and spread offense is an absolute nightmare matchup for Auburn's Defense. You can look at what OMiss did against us with inferior talent and assume TAM gains upwards of 500 yards offense. Assuming the TT comes out around 38ish with the current line/spreads. They would have to shoot themselves in the foot not to reach 40. Auburn has shown ability to matchup vs. Prostyle offense. Spread just eats us up.
Still leaning towards: Gators and USCe, and will definitely be on Oregon. Will post plays as I put them in
:0003
Clemson/Wake Over 58.5
Banged up Clemson secondary. Michael Campanaro supposed to be back for WF which makes a pretty big difference on Offense / STs. Combination of him being back and Clemsons injuries should translate into a couple more scores for WF. Clemson's offense wears people out with fast tempo. They've put up some high numbers against better defenses. I think they're good for 42. Hopefully Wake can add 17 of their own. Maybe i can predict this TNF game close like last time... 45 - 24 Clemson. :0corn
Gonna wait on the rest until friday afternoon / saturday morning. Probably gonna lay off the Michigan and OMiss games unless some people I know are high on them closer to the weekend.
Looking at Texas A&M and possibly Texas A&M Team Total as big plays. Mobile QB and spread offense is an absolute nightmare matchup for Auburn's Defense. You can look at what OMiss did against us with inferior talent and assume TAM gains upwards of 500 yards offense. Assuming the TT comes out around 38ish with the current line/spreads. They would have to shoot themselves in the foot not to reach 40. Auburn has shown ability to matchup vs. Prostyle offense. Spread just eats us up.
Still leaning towards: Gators and USCe, and will definitely be on Oregon. Will post plays as I put them in
:0003
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Don't see the line really going up on me, but still wanted to get this one in there because my buddy and his "partner" in NOLA pointed it out to me (they've been pretty hot lately) and after looking at it, I like the pick a lot. Probably be one of the bigger plays this weekend.
La Tech - New Mexico State Over 77 - CANCELLED
Gonna be plenty of yards in this game. Both teams defenses give up tons of yardage and points
LT -
114th Scoring D @ 38ppg
119th Total D @ 519ypg and 6.14ypp
NMST -
103rd Scoring D @ 34.3ppg
100th Total D @ 452ypg and 6.40ypp
Both offenses should have no trouble moving the ball on the other. NMST Offense is nothing special. But I feel like they only have to get 14-20 points for this # to go over because LT offense prays on shit defenses. I also like the chances of TDs being scored instead of FGs when teams get in the RZ, which is the main factor in Overs like this not hitting
LT -
#1 scoring O @ 56.1ppg
86% TDs in the Redzone
NMST -
#96 scoring O @ 22ppg - which is not good but
73% TDs in the Redzone
So nobody should be settling for FGs. The encouraging matchup for NMST here is that their "strength" on offense is passing, which LT cannot defend: 357def Pass ypg. So NMST should actually be able to move the ball somewhat on offense.
LT should be able to move the ball at will as NMST is 96th in Pass D @ 262ypg and 92nd in Rush D @ 190ypg. And NMST hasn't faced many, if any at all, offenses that can move the ball like LT
LT games averaging 94ppg total this year. Including 2 that went over 100. They put up 70 on Idaho last week IN 3 QTRS. 840 yards offense.
I honestly think LT may hit the number by themselves.
:0003
La Tech - New Mexico State Over 77 - CANCELLED
Gonna be plenty of yards in this game. Both teams defenses give up tons of yardage and points
LT -
114th Scoring D @ 38ppg
119th Total D @ 519ypg and 6.14ypp
NMST -
103rd Scoring D @ 34.3ppg
100th Total D @ 452ypg and 6.40ypp
Both offenses should have no trouble moving the ball on the other. NMST Offense is nothing special. But I feel like they only have to get 14-20 points for this # to go over because LT offense prays on shit defenses. I also like the chances of TDs being scored instead of FGs when teams get in the RZ, which is the main factor in Overs like this not hitting
LT -
#1 scoring O @ 56.1ppg
86% TDs in the Redzone
NMST -
#96 scoring O @ 22ppg - which is not good but
73% TDs in the Redzone
So nobody should be settling for FGs. The encouraging matchup for NMST here is that their "strength" on offense is passing, which LT cannot defend: 357def Pass ypg. So NMST should actually be able to move the ball somewhat on offense.
LT should be able to move the ball at will as NMST is 96th in Pass D @ 262ypg and 92nd in Rush D @ 190ypg. And NMST hasn't faced many, if any at all, offenses that can move the ball like LT
LT games averaging 94ppg total this year. Including 2 that went over 100. They put up 70 on Idaho last week IN 3 QTRS. 840 yards offense.
I honestly think LT may hit the number by themselves.
:0003
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