I've missed out on the Bama/LSU total... down
to 39 at my place..... still gonna pull the chain!!!!
GIDDY UP
to 39 at my place..... still gonna pull the chain!!!!
GIDDY UP
Year Long Picks
- Thread starter TLankford
- Start date
I don't think you have too much to worry about. LSU's offense is bad. and they should feel bad. Hopefully that grass being loud can keep Bama out of the Endzone enough for the total.
24-13 Bama
24-13 Bama
Syracuse - Louisville line out at +/- 3. Fishiest line I've seen in a while and imagine sharps are gonna jump on Cuse.
other games that looked interesting on first glance at the card:
OMiss -2.5 over Vandy
ND -20 over BC
Arkansas +15.5
ATM +16
OMiss -2.5 over Vandy
ND -20 over BC
Arkansas +15.5
ATM +16
Have been discussing it a little in Jord's thread, know it will be the biggest play of the week if the line is above 21. Which doing the #s with the game total and spread, it will be at 21.5 or better unless the #s move a lot.
Texas A&M TT Under
Feel as confident in this one as i did that ATM was gonna put up 50 on Auburn. Xs and Os. Not gonna be any kind of "letdown" or lack of emotion. This is a Saban coached team and it's going to be late afternoon/early night in BDS. Public perception of that O is overhyped bc of "Johnny Football." Saban has shut down great QBs before, it will happen again Saturday
Texas A&M TT Under
Feel as confident in this one as i did that ATM was gonna put up 50 on Auburn. Xs and Os. Not gonna be any kind of "letdown" or lack of emotion. This is a Saban coached team and it's going to be late afternoon/early night in BDS. Public perception of that O is overhyped bc of "Johnny Football." Saban has shut down great QBs before, it will happen again Saturday
Lankford,,I have been lurking here for a couple of years and decided to start posting,,and even though we cheer for different teams here in the state,I have the utmost respect for you and your picks,,You call it not only like you see it,but are spot on as it is,both with Auburn and Bama,,Good luck and keep the winners coming,,,
Thanks JAS. Learned a few years ago that it's not profitable to bet against Saban or to bet on teams you don't know shit about. Why I primarily stick to the SEC or teams that are on TV for me to watch.
Got 2 plays to put in for now. Been thinking about them since monday and haven't found a reason not to play them:
Ole Miss -150 over Vandy
Been wondering why the line is short all week. Elston not gonna factor that much by himself. Figured it was a combination of OM getting stomped by UGA and Vandy killing UK last week. OM coming back home after two tough road games. Chance to get to 50% on the season in conference play. Think they have more talent than Vandy everywhere except maybe RB. Night game. Not the most hostile environment ever but a night home game in the SEC means there's gonna be enough noise there to play some kind of factor. I just don't think Vandy is very good. Record is very misleading as their 3 Ws are against the 3 worst teams in the SEC. OM is a step up in class and I think it will show saturday night. Also would lean pretty heavy on the Under and may play it depending on how I feel on saturday. Both teams are gonna try to establish the run and play decent defense. 50 is a high number for a Vandy game. 24-17 Rebs
Texas A&M Team Total Under 21.5 vs. Bama
Line came out right where I thought it would. Seen both of these teams play almost every one of their games. Seen more Bama games in the last few years than I'd care to admit. Watched Sumlin at Houston with Keenum and this year with Johnny. ATM will not score more than 21 points in this game. Bama's D given up 10 TDs in 9 games. Don't tell me I'm supposed to look at ATM's schedule and be impressed with the big #s they put up against those defenses. They didn't hit 20 against UF or LSU. They aren't hitting it this week either. Saban's D always has big, fast silverbacks that are close to, or as fast as, the other team's RB. Don't think I've ever seen a dual-threat QB give a saban D a problem. Took a lot of luck and divine intervention for Cam to beat Bama in BDS. That offense was a machine. This offense is a hype machine. I'd put this ATM offense on the same level as Michigan. Points are tough to come by in BDS and I'd say ATM has more turnovers than TDs by the end of the game. Leaving the game total and line alone bc I have no idea what Bama O will look like vs ATM D. Just to take a stab: 28-13 Bama
Looking at a couple more whole game lines and waiting on 1Hs to come out. Prob have 2-3 more plays max out of these:
Cuse +3
ASU +9
Wash +1
Indiana +7
Arkansas +14
AU/UGA Under 51.5
and 1Hs I'm hoping to get these #s or better
Clemson -21 (or TT Over 27.5ish)
UCLA -7 (or TT Over 20)
Oregon TT Over 30
Will update when I put anything else in
:0003
Got 2 plays to put in for now. Been thinking about them since monday and haven't found a reason not to play them:
Ole Miss -150 over Vandy
Been wondering why the line is short all week. Elston not gonna factor that much by himself. Figured it was a combination of OM getting stomped by UGA and Vandy killing UK last week. OM coming back home after two tough road games. Chance to get to 50% on the season in conference play. Think they have more talent than Vandy everywhere except maybe RB. Night game. Not the most hostile environment ever but a night home game in the SEC means there's gonna be enough noise there to play some kind of factor. I just don't think Vandy is very good. Record is very misleading as their 3 Ws are against the 3 worst teams in the SEC. OM is a step up in class and I think it will show saturday night. Also would lean pretty heavy on the Under and may play it depending on how I feel on saturday. Both teams are gonna try to establish the run and play decent defense. 50 is a high number for a Vandy game. 24-17 Rebs
Texas A&M Team Total Under 21.5 vs. Bama
Line came out right where I thought it would. Seen both of these teams play almost every one of their games. Seen more Bama games in the last few years than I'd care to admit. Watched Sumlin at Houston with Keenum and this year with Johnny. ATM will not score more than 21 points in this game. Bama's D given up 10 TDs in 9 games. Don't tell me I'm supposed to look at ATM's schedule and be impressed with the big #s they put up against those defenses. They didn't hit 20 against UF or LSU. They aren't hitting it this week either. Saban's D always has big, fast silverbacks that are close to, or as fast as, the other team's RB. Don't think I've ever seen a dual-threat QB give a saban D a problem. Took a lot of luck and divine intervention for Cam to beat Bama in BDS. That offense was a machine. This offense is a hype machine. I'd put this ATM offense on the same level as Michigan. Points are tough to come by in BDS and I'd say ATM has more turnovers than TDs by the end of the game. Leaving the game total and line alone bc I have no idea what Bama O will look like vs ATM D. Just to take a stab: 28-13 Bama
Looking at a couple more whole game lines and waiting on 1Hs to come out. Prob have 2-3 more plays max out of these:
Cuse +3
ASU +9
Wash +1
Indiana +7
Arkansas +14
AU/UGA Under 51.5
and 1Hs I'm hoping to get these #s or better
Clemson -21 (or TT Over 27.5ish)
UCLA -7 (or TT Over 20)
Oregon TT Over 30
Will update when I put anything else in
:0003
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0-2 yesterday
22-13 ytd
tailgating all day yesterday never really thought about posting any plays. not sure how vandy beat omiss didn't see the game. underestimated johnny football. kid is a player. ended up playing pretty much all of those leans. around even on the day. on to next week
few that stuck out to me. unranked home teams favored over ranked road teams. will look into these.
cincy -6.5 over rutgers
msu -6.5 over nwestern
osu -11 over ttech
like the vols getting 3.5 in nashville
22-13 ytd
tailgating all day yesterday never really thought about posting any plays. not sure how vandy beat omiss didn't see the game. underestimated johnny football. kid is a player. ended up playing pretty much all of those leans. around even on the day. on to next week
few that stuck out to me. unranked home teams favored over ranked road teams. will look into these.
cincy -6.5 over rutgers
msu -6.5 over nwestern
osu -11 over ttech
like the vols getting 3.5 in nashville
another game I'm looking at that will probably be a play: Mizzou -5 over Cuse
Mizzou has been pretty good the last couple weeks since Franklin came back. Coulda woulda shoulda beat UF without the 4 turnovers. Outgained them by 100+. went into Knox and beat UT to get that first SEC win. Need 1 more W to be bowl eligible, and they have to see this week as the most likely game since A&M is taking names these days. Cuse outside of the USF game has been pretty bad on the road. Coming off a huge BigEast upset over Louisville. Like anything under 7 here.
Mizzou has been pretty good the last couple weeks since Franklin came back. Coulda woulda shoulda beat UF without the 4 turnovers. Outgained them by 100+. went into Knox and beat UT to get that first SEC win. Need 1 more W to be bowl eligible, and they have to see this week as the most likely game since A&M is taking names these days. Cuse outside of the USF game has been pretty bad on the road. Coming off a huge BigEast upset over Louisville. Like anything under 7 here.
3gm 6pt Tease: ISU pk / MichSt pk / Cincy pk pays 1.6-1
Don't see Iowa State getting beat by Kansas. Team is in a bad spot and pretty much given up on the season. Iowa State needs this game to be bowl eligible unless they wanna rely on beating WV for that. MichSt and Cincy I think cover the original spreads. Both real solid teams at home and playing teams that are overrated. NWestern shown vulnerability since they started playing half-decent teams. MSU has played a decent amt tougher schedule and is also fighting for bowl eligibility. Cincy is just flat out better than Rutgers. Rutgers schedule is laughable. Cincy is probably the best team in the BEast.
Very tempted to take Cincy pretty big by themselves. Will see about that later.
Haven't had a chance to watch the Arky/USCe game. Want to see how Arky looked down late. Wondering if they've given up or still have some fight in them. Should be able to keep that game with MSU within a TD if they have any fight left.
Will be looking at Clemson TT for 1H and whole game once they come out on my site. NCST secondary is real bad.
Gonna stay away from UT/Vandy game altogether. Never know if UT comes out sleepwalking or if they actually care about this in-state "rivalry"
Don't have totals up yet with my local, few places have the O/U for SC/UCLA game at 65. I think both teams get into the 30s here.
:0003
Don't see Iowa State getting beat by Kansas. Team is in a bad spot and pretty much given up on the season. Iowa State needs this game to be bowl eligible unless they wanna rely on beating WV for that. MichSt and Cincy I think cover the original spreads. Both real solid teams at home and playing teams that are overrated. NWestern shown vulnerability since they started playing half-decent teams. MSU has played a decent amt tougher schedule and is also fighting for bowl eligibility. Cincy is just flat out better than Rutgers. Rutgers schedule is laughable. Cincy is probably the best team in the BEast.
Very tempted to take Cincy pretty big by themselves. Will see about that later.
Haven't had a chance to watch the Arky/USCe game. Want to see how Arky looked down late. Wondering if they've given up or still have some fight in them. Should be able to keep that game with MSU within a TD if they have any fight left.
Will be looking at Clemson TT for 1H and whole game once they come out on my site. NCST secondary is real bad.
Gonna stay away from UT/Vandy game altogether. Never know if UT comes out sleepwalking or if they actually care about this in-state "rivalry"
Don't have totals up yet with my local, few places have the O/U for SC/UCLA game at 65. I think both teams get into the 30s here.
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Couple more plays now that Totals and Team Totals are out. Didn't like the card much at all on Monday but some of these totals I like a lot more than the spreads available.
Arkansas Team Total Under 24.5
They basically scored 13 against USCe last week. Garbage TD with 30 seconds left in the game put them to 20. They still don't have much of a running game to speak of and continue to have RZ problems. The longer of their 2 FGs on saturday was 21 yards. MSU gave up big #s to @Bama, @LSU and vs. Johnny Football - who we now know can score on pretty much everybody. Most of the damage done by LSU/Bama/ATM was on the ground, which Arky cannot really do. Hoping the Dogs can keep from having big turnovers and Arky should stay well below this number.
Clemson Team Total Over 40
Pretty high number, but it's Clemson. They've stayed under 40 3 times this year, twice at 38 and 37. Only reason they couldn't put up 40 against Auburn is because we still had God on our side then. :SIB NCST's defense is pitiful. Been saying that since the Miami game. Pass Defense gives up tons to anyone with an arm and 2 decent WRs. Run D has looked just as bad lately. Only factor to really consider here is Dabo Dabo-ing in the 2nd Half if they are up big and having a Wake Forrest type 2H. Gonna put my faith in Dabo :facepalm: that he wants to use an opportunity at home to blow someone out to get all the love he can from computer rankings before possibly adding another L to the scorecard next week vs. USCe
1st Half lines don't come out with my local until thursday afternoon or friday. Will probably have 1-2 more if they look good.
Is the O/U in the UT/Vandy game really 60? scored 48 last year and went to OT. I know Tennessee Overs are 9-0 this year, but come on.
:0003
edit: updated Arky TT went up .5 and bought out of original 24 to take the extra hook on a key number
Arkansas Team Total Under 24.5
They basically scored 13 against USCe last week. Garbage TD with 30 seconds left in the game put them to 20. They still don't have much of a running game to speak of and continue to have RZ problems. The longer of their 2 FGs on saturday was 21 yards. MSU gave up big #s to @Bama, @LSU and vs. Johnny Football - who we now know can score on pretty much everybody. Most of the damage done by LSU/Bama/ATM was on the ground, which Arky cannot really do. Hoping the Dogs can keep from having big turnovers and Arky should stay well below this number.
Clemson Team Total Over 40
Pretty high number, but it's Clemson. They've stayed under 40 3 times this year, twice at 38 and 37. Only reason they couldn't put up 40 against Auburn is because we still had God on our side then. :SIB NCST's defense is pitiful. Been saying that since the Miami game. Pass Defense gives up tons to anyone with an arm and 2 decent WRs. Run D has looked just as bad lately. Only factor to really consider here is Dabo Dabo-ing in the 2nd Half if they are up big and having a Wake Forrest type 2H. Gonna put my faith in Dabo :facepalm: that he wants to use an opportunity at home to blow someone out to get all the love he can from computer rankings before possibly adding another L to the scorecard next week vs. USCe
1st Half lines don't come out with my local until thursday afternoon or friday. Will probably have 1-2 more if they look good.
Is the O/U in the UT/Vandy game really 60? scored 48 last year and went to OT. I know Tennessee Overs are 9-0 this year, but come on.
:0003
edit: updated Arky TT went up .5 and bought out of original 24 to take the extra hook on a key number
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1-1 on the day so far. really need to quit doing teases. so stupid. Arkansas was easy pickings. Clemson got 27 through a quarter and a half. Don't see how they wouldn't score 2 more tds.
Looking at 1 maybe 2 more. 1 for sure probably putting it in pretty soon
Looking at 1 maybe 2 more. 1 for sure probably putting it in pretty soon
little busy no time for write ups. 2 more plays for tonight. Clemson team total hits in 1st half. good feeling right there
Iowa State -2 1st half
Vandy/Tennessee Over 60.5
Iowa State -2 1st half
Vandy/Tennessee Over 60.5
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