First plays this week locked in:
Nebraska -150
Line doesn't appear to be going anywhere. When Wisconsin was 6-2 I thought they had it coming back together. They were playing their best football of the year then, and still lost to Nebraska - albeit @NEB. But they were outgained by 150 yards and Neb had a ton of penalties and 2 fumbles that gave the ball to Wisc in the redzone for easy TDs. Since then Neb has been playing pretty solid football, even though they only beat Iowa by 1 score last week. Easily could be seen as a look ahead game. Wisc on the other hand has been losing to every decent B1G team they've played. They actually have lost ever game this year vs. teams that you could consider to be decent. There's not anything that resembles an "impressive win" on their schedule. I don't see Wisconsin pulling off any kind of upset here, but they haven't exactly been blowing people out so I'll take the ML for conservatism.
Corn 27 - 23
FSU -13.5 -120
Lot of people saying this line is too good to be true. It is. I don't care though. Have to look up and down GT's schedule this year and tell me which game makes you think they can keep this within 2 TDs. That schedule is incredibly soft. Losses to Clemson, BYU and UGA by 16, 24 and 32. Their defense is absolutely terrible, which is a great fit for FSU who struggles to score in games vs. real opponents (GT doesn't fit this description though). Seeing FSU get gashed on the ground the way they did last week could be the only reason for the line being under 21. UF gets 200+ on the ground + GT runs the option = Only reason I can think of at this point. Need to stop wondering why the line is where it is though. FSU's defense is faster than anyone else in the ACC. Certainly faster than anyone GT has played until last week. GT may have left a few points off the board last week with turnovers in UGA territory but you really never know since they have a dogshit kicking game and go for it on 4th so often. I don't think GT's defense is good enough to keep them in the game, plain and simple. Freeman and Wilder should be able to keep the chains moving. All comes down to EJ playing a half-decent game which is easy to do against GT this year.
FSU 38 - 14
Texas - EMAW Under 63.5
Was surprised to see the line in the 60s. Especially with McCoy at QB. He makes the horns offense incredibly bad in the passing game. One of the worst QBs I've seen in a while, other than watching AU games. Not to mention if TCU's defense could make Texas look that inept on offense... Kstate with a bye week to prepare should have a great gameplan for giving Texas's O all they can handle. I remember being on Texas in last year's matchup ("line was too fishy") and watching Ash/McCoy look embarrassing on offense. I think this week's matchup will be very similar to last year's, the only exception being the margin of victory. I'd lean strongly to KState winning this one by 17+. I don't think Texas is capable of getting past the teens and hopefully Snyder doesn't run up the score or Texas D can keep them to a respectable number.
EMAW 34-16
Pretty sure I'll have at least 2 more plays this week, hopefully. One game I'm not touching with a 10 foot pole is the SECCG. Anyone who thinks they really know how that one ends up relative to the spread is a liar. UGA backers are betting on UGA stopping the run and Murray playing really well. Bama backers are betting on AJ making all his throws and their lines owning the LOS. There's no clear edge there. I think there's a really good chance Bama wins the game, even though UGA has been playing great football lately, but the spread comes down to QB play... which is too hard to predict with Defenses like this playing. If anything I'd lean to the UGA TT Over 21. Don't like it enough to play it though.
Line I'm keeping an eye on is Stanford-UCLA. Would really like it to come on down to 7 (currently at 8.5) because -165 is too much juice to not be on a ML. I think people liking UCLA are trying to be too "trendy" for lack of a better word for it. I said last week when I took Stanford that UCLA would have a little bit of a lack of motivation because they were already in the P12CG, but still you are playing at home on senior day. You can't give them a pass altogether for getting dominated in that game. Averaged 2.2ypc? Do people think they'll be more successful on the ground in Palo Alto? Or that their 1-sided attack is gonna just work out better this time? Or that they're gonna shut down Stephan Taylor when they leave their own back yard? (when he didn't even play the 4th qtr and went for 140yds). Kevin Hogan has been damn impressive stepping in at QB as a "game manager." Is UCLA going to all the sudden be the first team this year to shut down Stanford D's front 7? Nope. Especially not when they can't run the ball to keep them honest. 7 Sacks last game. With a live Stanford crowd drunk and loud as hell on a friday night... Offense isn't gonna get any easier for UCLA. I'll take 8.5 if I have to, but at this point I'm gonna wait and see if the line keeps dropping. Will post when I play it and @ what line.
Trees 31 - 17
