Zags/Hopkins April 12

[almly]

Kessler wasnt getting KO'd if the ref didnt jump in, come on. Spinch you think that he's one dimensional? I disagree totally, I think that guy is a highly skilled fighter, offensively and defensively.

I'm not going to play Calzahge at -250, but -200 might be worth it.

 

[almly]

Does anybody see any value at Makaev at +350 and Marquez at +150 against Vasquez? I find those numbers kind of interesting.

 

[tonymontana]

I am a tight cunt concerning favorites as you all know but i am going down hard on Calzaghe. If Cal takes this serious and i believe he will Hopkins has a lucky punch chance but with Calzaghes chin and his regeneration powers even that chance is slim.
For once Romi no warning but my full support.

 

[tonymontana]

Does anybody see any value at Makaev at +350 and Marquez at +150 against Vasquez? I find those numbers kind of interesting.

I have both. I had Maskaeev over Sanil Sam and Rahman and i had alot of money on him the first time against Peters before the fight was cancelled. Maskaeev can box and he can punch and he was in big fights and is on a winning streak. Plus he comes in the ring in good shape. Good enough for me.
Peters has a punchers chance against anybody but he is very beatable. I thought the Mccline fight would ruin the numbers but it didnt.
I like Maskaev at 350 more than Marquez at 150.
I expect an open fight with Pacman.

 

[Zerwas]

I like Maskaev, but Vazquez is probalby to strong for Marquez...

Marquez needs to fight the perfect fight, then, he can win a decision or on cuts...

 

[almly]

Yeah Tony, I was actually talking about Rafael Marquez not Juan Manuel, although I like his chances too.

If you like Calzaghe then that seals it, youre the best capper on this board from what I've seen.

 

[punchmaster]

Kessler wasnt getting KO'd if the ref didnt jump in, come on. Spinch you think that he's one dimensional? I disagree totally, I think that guy is a highly skilled fighter, offensively and defensively.

I'm not going to play Calzahge at -250, but -200 might be worth it.

come on, what. Rewatch it. Kessler admitted and everyone noticed , particulary the announcers that Kessler was hurt and could only cover up on the ropes, then ref jumps in for a questionable warning, so yea, the way Calzaghe flurries a hurt fighter, Kessler could have been stopped.

 

[Romi]

I am a tight cunt concerning favorites as you all know but i am going down hard on Calzaghe. If Cal takes this serious and i believe he will Hopkins has a lucky punch chance but with Calzaghes chin and his regeneration powers even that chance is slim.
For once Romi no warning but my full support.

Glad to see we're on the same page Tony. I'd be a little nervous if you were picking Hop. I met Steve Farhood from Showtime @ the MGM and discussed 3 future fights for about 5-10 mins. We essentially agreed that Hop is just too old to climb the mountain 1 more time against the calibre of Zags. Hop WAS a great fighter. Zags IS a great fighter. It's as simple as that. Hop knows every single trick in the book and he'll probably be pulling rabbits out of Joes ass but it still won't be enough to win this one. He can only fight in spurts and he can't sustain an attack. He couldn't do it with a lesser fighter in JT nearly 3 years ago. How in the hell is he going to do it with a better and bigger fighter now??? Are people implying that Hop is a better fighter now than he was at 40? I don't discredit anybody for picking Hop in this one. I still value their opinions. It's why we have this board. That being said, I have a pretty hefty amount on this and like any other fight I may never see that dough again...I just don't see it happening.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Anyone else have DLH ahead of Hop after 6 rounds of action?

Yes, I know the first half of a fight don't mean sh*t, but the only reason Hopkins came on in the later rounds was due to his obvious size advantage. How many times have we seen the bigger man stop the smaller guy with a body shot.

My point is, DLH was giving Hopkins all he could handle until the size difference took over. Calzaghe is the naturaly bigger guy here, so he won't be overwelmed or fade late in the fight.

This is a very tough fight for Hopkins at 43. Calzaghe is a class above Tarver, and much bigger/stronger than Winky.

gl bl

 

[The Sponge]

Box my recollection is that Hopkins was dominating the last three rounds and if Oscar didn't take the liver shot out he would have gotten knocked out.

I realize Hopkins is 43 and this is a tough fight. My point is that no way he is just gonna get run right out of the ring. I think Cal wins a decision (barely) i just think its a lot closer then everyone thinks. In my opinion i think this weight is ideal for Hopkins because of the way he is built. Strange every time he wins now there are excuses for the other guy. Winky was fat and Tarver is a joke now. That same Joke knocked out what use to be the best fighter in the world and beat him twice. Everyone also forgets that Taylor was a stud and lets be honest he hasn't been the same since Hopkins beat him the first fight and if Hopkins didn't win that fight then Steve Forbes didn't win the fight against D Hopkins. As far as Pavlik i never saw Hopkins in any trouble at all against Taylor. I saw Pavlik almost have his head ripped off his neck. When Taylor finally decided to get hungry again they went the distance Just like Hopkins did. We can go back and forth like this all night. 43 is a little different when you never drank or smoke and stayed in shape your whole life. Is it an avantage? Hell no but he isn't an old 43. Has Hopkins even loss to a southpaul in his life? Just my opinion of course.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Hold on there Spongie, if you go back and look through this thread you'll see that my play in this fight is the Over. Yes, I pointed out that Hopkins doesn't have too much power, and mentioned the DLH fight since it hadn't been discussed, I also said this is a very tough fight for the old man...However, I never said this was an easy fight for Calzaghe nor did I push a play on him at huge odds. IF I were to play Calzaghe, it would be by decision at even money or so, but I'm leaving the side alone in this fight, I just like the Over.

Here's the kicker fellas, GBP is promoting the fight, so there's no way in hell I could lay big money at those odds against Hopkins. Just look at the Forbes-DHop and Casamayor-Cruz fights, hell Calzaghe could win every round and still lose by UD. Very dangerous laying odds against the juice



@almly

The best boxing capper on this forum (in my opinion), thinks the odds are way too high, he's predicting a decision win for Hopkins

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Btw, Spongie

I broke my finger a few days ago so you'll be seeing alot more of me over the next few weeks.

Gotta love pain pills :grins:

 

[almly]

Tarver knocked out Jones because of one reason, Jones was shot. Tarver would of never had a prayer at doing that before Jones moved up to heavyweight. Glen Johnson also knocked Jones out, and Glen Johnson is seriously nothing special.

Implying, or seeming to imply, that Hopkins looked better against Taylor than Pavlik did is just flat out ridiculous. I mean seriously ridiculous.

I havent followed your record all that closely Box but I have seen some of your plays. I've seen you win quite a few but I've also seen you lose some too. You are probably a very good handicapper, Spinch told me that you are very solid. The predictions I've seen of Tonys have come thru at a ridiculous percentage. Maybe I've just seen him at his best.

I guess this fight will be a good indication of who knows their stuff.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I havent followed your record all that closely Box but I have seen some of your plays. I've seen you win quite a few but I've also seen you lose some too. You are probably a very good handicapper, Spinch told me that you are very solid. The predictions I've seen of Tonys have come thru at a ridiculous percentage. Maybe I've just seen him at his best.

I guess this fight will be a good indication of who knows their stuff.

Actually, I wasn't talking about me, he posted in this thread

Tony is a very good capper, but he gets quite a few winners from "his guy" as well

This forum is loaded with talent, I was just pointing out that the best guy I know is on Hopkins


gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Does anybody see any value at Makaev at +350 and Marquez at +150 against Vasquez? I find those numbers kind of interesting.

Posted Maskaev and JMMarquez in my futures last week. Also posted R.Marquez as a lean but still haven't pulled the trigger

gl bl

 

[almly]

So who are you talking about then?

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Great odds on Hopkins. He will rough Calzaghe up and win a decision.

Back on Page 1

He doesn't post here much, but we keep in touch

gl bl

 

[weepaul]

Hold on there Spongie, if you go back and look through this thread you'll see that my play in this fight is the Over. Yes, I pointed out that Hopkins doesn't have too much power, and mentioned the DLH fight since it hadn't been discussed, I also said this is a very tough fight for the old man...However, I never said this was an easy fight for Calzaghe nor did I push a play on him at huge odds. IF I were to play Calzaghe, it would be by decision at even money or so, but I'm leaving the side alone in this fight, I just like the Over.

Here's the kicker fellas, GBP is promoting the fight, so there's no way in hell I could lay big money at those odds against Hopkins. Just look at the Forbes-DHop and Casamayor-Cruz fights, hell Calzaghe could win every round and still lose by UD. Very dangerous laying odds against the juice



@almly

The best boxing capper on this forum (in my opinion), thinks the odds are way too high, he's predicting a decision win for Hopkins

gl bl

Hey Box,

Who is the best boxing capper on the forum? His rep is going to take a hit after this fight LOL.

I am in full agreement with Almy. Calz has already beaten the one guy who could upset him (Kessler).

The fights with Hop and Taylor were close fights but Taylors speed and workrate gave Hop problems. Now he is about to fight someone who is just as fast as Taylor but without the stamina issues. It is going to be a loooong night for Hop.

 

[gardenweasel]

we have a guy favored over hopkins at almost 3-1 who seldom(if ever) fights away from home....certainly never vs this class of opponent...

a guy who`s record is basically a "who`s who" of "who`s not"...

kessler and who?.....mofofredo/bika/bogus lacy/ashira/veit/salem/mkrtchian/byron mitchell/pudwill/jimenez/charles (the chinless) brewer/veit again/ richie woodhall/omar (i got stopped by scott pemberton)sheika.....and on and on...

he even caught eubank at the end of his career..

all but maybe one or two at home...mcintyre and veit...

honestly,as a body of work,this is basically crap(when discussing world class opponents)...

it`s not necessarily all calzaghe`s fault,though,that the division has been less than stellar...joe louis had a bum of the month club,but,he was still a great fighter...you could make the same argument against hopkins` middleweight resume for a good portion of his career...

but,calzaghe never even considered(seriously) fighting the roy jones` ,the tarver`s,even the eric harding`s or glen johnson`s of the world...certainly never outside his home turf.....

not disparaging calzaghe,but,anytime a guy hugs homecourt this tightly,and doesn`t challenge himself,my antenna go up...

look...i think calzaghe`s solid....a really good fighter....i like the guy,personally....but there are questions,imo....

as i said,this division has sucked for years...when i saw manny siaca for the 1st time after he beat mundine,i was shocked...he was mediocre at best...sloooow...

you have to be careful,imo, about guys that have bloated records and that basically fight every fight on home turf.......(pemberton,manfredo,gary balletto,paul spadafora,a million midwestern and european fighters)...

do not underestimate homecourt...i don`t think for a second that joe would have gone to denmark to fight kessler...or come to the states to fight lacy(who at the time,was thought to be a real threat)...

in this case,imo, joe believes that he has an over-the-hill hopkins...and,who knows, he may be right....:shrug:

personally,i still think b.hop is a dangerous opponent...i haven`t seen anything to indicate he`s a soft touch for anybody....

who`s blown hopkins out,aside from a physical freak like roy jones in his prime?...

calzaghe may have some innate physical advantages(speed in particular...youth,relatively speaking,as joe ain`t exactly a baby himself)...hopkins will have a minor height advantage..

but,he`ll see things from hopkins that he`s never seen before...

and i can`t lose sight of the fact that he`s leaving his crib for a major fight for the first time... how can that not be considered?

he`s been highly protected with the home court..and he`s fought nobody remotely like hopkins...

i know the big fights are very tempting to wager on...but,in a nutshell,my point is that there are better 2.5/3 to 1 faves that i`d be much more amenable to wagering on...

its a fact that there "just are" some guys that defy father time(archie moore,jersey joe walcott,holifield,)...

spongy disclaimer:calzaghe`s a favorite for a reason...i`m not saying hopkins is a lock,or even likely to win...the odds are what they are...for a reason...

all i`m saying is that i see no reason to consider hopkins as fodder for calzaghe until he actually starts fighting like a 43 year old....it may happen vs calzaghe...or it may be a very close,tough fight like most "hopkins vs world class opponent" fights have been of late...

he just ain`t my idea of a soft 3-1 dog vs anybody...

 

[The Sponge]

I guess what weasel is saying is exactly what im saying. Mayweather was an easy bet at basically the same odds over Hatton. This in my opinion is no easy bet. No way Hopkins gets run out of town. He is to good and to smart. Would i be surprised if he lost a decision? No not at all. Would i be surprised if he won. No not at all. Would i have been surprised if Hatton beat Mayweather? I would have thought it was one of the biggest upset in the history of boxing.