Zags/Hopkins April 12

[The Sponge]

Hold on there Spongie, if you go back and look through this thread you'll see that my play in this fight is the Over. Yes, I pointed out that Hopkins doesn't have too much power, and mentioned the DLH fight since it hadn't been discussed, I also said this is a very tough fight for the old man...However, I never said this was an easy fight for Calzaghe nor did I push a play on him at huge odds. IF I were to play Calzaghe, it would be by decision at even money or so, but I'm leaving the side alone in this fight, I just like the Over.

Here's the kicker fellas, GBP is promoting the fight, so there's no way in hell I could lay big money at those odds against Hopkins. Just look at the Forbes-DHop and Casamayor-Cruz fights, hell Calzaghe could win every round and still lose by UD. Very dangerous laying odds against the juice



@almly

The best boxing capper on this forum (in my opinion), thinks the odds are way too high, he's predicting a decision win for Hopkins

gl bl

Box the first part of my post i was talking to you and the second part was to the Hopkins doubters. That is why i put a space between it. Seeing you like the over lends me to believe you don't think this fight is so cut and dry like others, either.

 

[The Sponge]

Btw, Spongie

I broke my finger a few days ago so you'll be seeing alot more of me over the next few weeks.

Gotta love pain pills :grins:

As long as you don't get addicted to them they are a beautiful thing. Sad part is that in my neighboorhood i am seeing a lot of people getting addicted to Perc's. I guess i was bless to not have this craving like others. Man people can really become a mess. By the way i have quit drinking for awhile and now realized i am bored to death. Do me a favor and on March first if you can fit it in between the Vasquez fight watch the mma Henderson/Silva match. Should be a classic. Man what a fight night that is gonna be. I might have to drink this night

 

[tonymontana]

we have a guy favored over hopkins at almost 3-1 who seldom(if ever) fights away from home....certainly never vs this class of opponent...

a guy who`s record is basically a "who`s who" of "who`s not"...

kessler and who?.....mofofredo/bika/bogus lacy/ashira/veit/salem/mkrtchian/byron mitchell/pudwill/jimenez/charles (the chinless) brewer/veit again/ richie woodhall/omar (i got stopped by scott pemberton)sheika.....and on and on...

he even caught eubank at the end of his career..

all but maybe one or two at home...mcintyre and veit...

honestly,as a body of work,this is basically crap(when discussing world class opponents)...

it`s not necessarily all calzaghe`s fault,though,that the division has been less than stellar...joe louis had a bum of the month club,but,he was still a great fighter...you could make the same argument against hopkins` middleweight resume for a good portion of his career...

but,calzaghe never even considered(seriously) fighting the roy jones` ,the tarver`s,even the eric harding`s or glen johnson`s of the world...certainly never outside his home turf.....

not disparaging calzaghe,but,anytime a guy hugs homecourt this tightly,and doesn`t challenge himself,my antenna go up...

look...i think calzaghe`s solid....a really good fighter....i like the guy,personally....but there are questions,imo....

as i said,this division has sucked for years...when i saw manny siaca for the 1st time after he beat mundine,i was shocked...he was mediocre at best...sloooow...

you have to be careful,imo, about guys that have bloated records and that basically fight every fight on home turf.......(pemberton,manfredo,gary balletto,paul spadafora,a million midwestern and european fighters)...

do not underestimate homecourt...i don`t think for a second that joe would have gone to denmark to fight kessler...or come to the states to fight lacy(who at the time,was thought to be a real threat)...

in this case,imo, joe believes that he has an over-the-hill hopkins...and,who knows, he may be right....:shrug:

personally,i still think b.hop is a dangerous opponent...i haven`t seen anything to indicate he`s a soft touch for anybody....

who`s blown hopkins out,aside from a physical freak like roy jones in his prime?...

calzaghe may have some innate physical advantages(speed in particular...youth,relatively speaking,as joe ain`t exactly a baby himself)...hopkins will have a minor height advantage..

but,he`ll see things from hopkins that he`s never seen before...

and i can`t lose sight of the fact that he`s leaving his crib for a major fight for the first time... how can that not be considered?

he`s been highly protected with the home court..and he`s fought nobody remotely like hopkins...

i know the big fights are very tempting to wager on...but,in a nutshell,my point is that there are better 2.5/3 to 1 faves that i`d be much more amenable to wagering on...

its a fact that there "just are" some guys that defy father time(archie moore,jersey joe walcott,holifield,)...

spongy disclaimer:calzaghe`s a favorite for a reason...i`m not saying hopkins is a lock,or even likely to win...the odds are what they are...for a reason...

all i`m saying is that i see no reason to consider hopkins as fodder for calzaghe until he actually starts fighting like a 43 year old....it may happen vs calzaghe...or it may be a very close,tough fight like most "hopkins vs world class opponent" fights have been of late...

he just ain`t my idea of a soft 3-1 dog vs anybody...

Hard to argue with that but we a talking 2 to 1 in Vegas. But still there are probably better favorites or even dogs around. I have Calzaghe in several parlays already but i will def consider Boxlocks promoting concerns and your analysis.
Also i know my man is very big about conditioning and Hop is working again (Tarver fight) with Shilstone for this fight. He believes that Shilstone is the best conditioning coach available today for boxers.
What i like about Calzaghe is that he brings it in big fights and his last fight was probably his best performance.
I will sit and watch for the time being no need to hurry things, line is moving in my direction anyways.

 

[almly]

Actuall I've heard Calzaghe saying that he would come to the states and fight Jones or Hopkins for years. I think it was more Frank Warren wanting to take the bigger gate money.

Calzaghes wanted to come over here and fight these guys. I have no doubt about his heart. I'm not saying he's going to necessarily run over Hopkins either, I just dont see how Hopkins can win. But hey, I've been wrong before.

 

[Zerwas]

I played Calzaghe vs. Hopkins over 9 1.3.

I think thats the best wager available right now.

If you consider a bet on Calzaghe, you should aks yourself if it's more likely that Calzaghe stops Hopkins or that Hopkins is competetive and the fight is ruled in his favor or a draw - as boxlocks said the fight is in vegas and promoted by goldenboy.

Calzaghe is moving up in weight, I honestly dont know if this will be a factor, but Hopkins has shown that he is very comortable at that weight, Calzaghe has yet to show it....

I still think Calzahge will win a deicision but who knows...

Maybe, a draw might be worth a shot. :shrug:

 

[MayorgaFan]

Hey Box,

Who is the best boxing capper on the forum? His rep is going to take a hit after this fight LOL.

It's only 1 fight, win or lose no reputation should be built up off of 1 fight. Hell I will be on Juan Marquez bigger than Hopkins unless the odds go back up on Hopkins. Some of the reasons I like Hopkins have already been hit on. Hopkins does very well against Southpaws, the fight is in the US promoted by GBP, Calzaghe has never fought someone who will be as rugged inside as Hopkins. Calzaghe is best when he has a bit of space or is at mid distance. I think Hopkins can maul him enough for that not to happen. Calzaghe is moving up afterall. I know Hopkins was a Middleweight most of his career but his frame is much better built for 175 IMO. Getting +235,+250 and hell even +275 at 1 point is ridiculous.

 

[MayorgaFan]

Hey Box,

BTW- I post at a different place under the name valdosta where you have posted as well. Actually I post almost everywhere under that name except for here. If Hopkins losses then I was wrong but if you look through my thread there I have done quite well lately although I am not really a unit person so much I prefer to just post what I like. The way I bet it is a little difficult represnting with units.

 

[MayorgaFan]

Back on Page 1

He doesn't post here much, but we keep in touch

gl bl

Thanks for the compliment BTW. I am not to big on any upcoming boxing except for JMM and Hopkins. Will need 1 to hit obviously to profit.

 

[almly]

I just saw that Freddie Roach is training Hopkins again. Hopkins should definitely be ready for this fight. I think Calzaghe will definitely have his hands full. I still like him to win this fight but the odds are too high for me.

If Calzaghe got down to less than -200 I probably would jump. If he was at -200 on the strip thats definitely a possibilty close to the fight time or fight night. The Vegas action will be on Hopkins.

 

[MayorgaFan]

BTW- I post at a different place under the name valdosta where you have posted as well. Actually I post almost everywhere under that name except for here. If Hopkins losses then I was wrong but if you look through my thread there I have done quite well lately although I am not really a unit person so much I prefer to just post what I like. The way I bet it is a little difficult represnting with units.

Interesting that the website I mentioned was **** out on here. It's not even competition they have no advertisements. Whatever though :0corn It's no different than mentioning sherdog which I did a search and has been mentioned here.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

As long as you don't get addicted to them they are a beautiful thing. Sad part is that in my neighboorhood i am seeing a lot of people getting addicted to Perc's. I guess i was bless to not have this craving like others. Man people can really become a mess. By the way i have quit drinking for awhile and now realized i am bored to death. Do me a favor and on March first if you can fit it in between the Vasquez fight watch the mma Henderson/Silva match. Should be a classic. Man what a fight night that is gonna be. I might have to drink this night

I'll do that, been watching more mma lately, caught the Lesner card a couple weeks ago and Kimbo this past weekend. I like watching mma as much as boxing, just don't know as much about it or the fighters, kind of a late bloomer to the sport. I'll get caught up eventually

Btw, I hear ya about the pills, won't get carried away trust me. Everything in moderation, but I could never quit drinking completely, I enjoy it too much

gl bl

 

[gardenweasel]

I guess what weasel is saying is exactly what im saying. Mayweather was an easy bet at basically the same odds over Hatton. This in my opinion is no easy bet. No way Hopkins gets run out of town. He is to good and to smart. Would i be surprised if he lost a decision? No not at all. Would i be surprised if he won. No not at all. Would i have been surprised if Hatton beat Mayweather? I would have thought it was one of the biggest upset in the history of boxing.

spongy...i`m impressed....you said what i said,with about 1/10th the effort....

pretty impressive there my man...well said...

i`m sure i`m pissing people off,so that`s all i have on this fight...small on bernard....i don`t even have a choice in the matter,given the odds......

if all the good guys here are tapping out on joe,i`ll root for him....g.l. to all...

 

[gardenweasel]

Thanks for the compliment BTW. I am not to big on any upcoming boxing except for JMM and Hopkins. Will need 1 to hit obviously to profit.

i`ll be on j.m.marquez,too....of course he can lose...on him basically `cause i think he`s about as enjoyable to watch ply his trade as any fighter in recent memory...just love his style with those odd hooks and uppercuts from strange angles,every punch looking correct and with leverage...the consumate combination puncher... ... and he`s been money for me...both brothers have...

we may be coming to the end of an era,though...as both boys could take the pipe in their upcoming fights.......

had a great week last week...couldn`t have been better..some good info from so many guys....

no wagering this week but see klit beating ibragimov(theres a revelation)........

the following week we have litzau/guerrero on friday and rafael m. vs vasquez...not to mention the ufc....

life is good....

 

[weepaul]

It's only 1 fight, win or lose no reputation should be built up off of 1 fight. Hell I will be on Juan Marquez bigger than Hopkins unless the odds go back up on Hopkins. Some of the reasons I like Hopkins have already been hit on. Hopkins does very well against Southpaws, the fight is in the US promoted by GBP, Calzaghe has never fought someone who will be as rugged inside as Hopkins. Calzaghe is best when he has a bit of space or is at mid distance. I think Hopkins can maul him enough for that not to happen. Calzaghe is moving up afterall. I know Hopkins was a Middleweight most of his career but his frame is much better built for 175 IMO. Getting +235,+250 and hell even +275 at 1 point is ridiculous.

I was just playing with you Brother. I know you are a good capper as Valdosta but I believe you are wrong about this fight.
I agree that if you feel confident, the odds are good on Hop.

Not to worry, as I will be joining you on JMM. I think he beats Pac.

 

[almly]

Yeah Spich, what do you think about Litzau vs. Guerro? I noticed Litzau is a huge dog.

 

[gardenweasel]

Yeah Spich, what do you think about Litzau vs. Guerro? I noticed Litzau is a huge dog.

almly...he`s a tad chinny and not exactly defensively tight...

but,he is tall and offensive minded...

litzau does come to fight and guerrero`s been on a bit of a stoppage tear himself,of late....vs solid competition..

several solid guys on here are considering the under...

but,unders can be tough..
as far as a side,i think most are liking guerrrero....he may be a class or two above litzau.....


he does have an off night occasionally..he actually has "2" losses,though one was overturned..

 

[Romi]

I can see Litz winning a few early rds w/speed and boxing but I can't see him holding off the Ghost over the course. I also think Litz' power is a little overrated. Litz can dish it out but he can't take the heat and the Ghost is going to be putting serious pressure on him. Litz is a cocky fighter but he won't get away w/that shit w/this guy. Litz HAS to fight a perfect fight. W/that fragile chin, one mistake and it's over. I like guerrero in about 6 rds. -700 is a bit wide but I'll prob parlay that one into something. Personally, I don't give Litz that much of a shot, but this is boxing and of course anything can happen.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Bump...

 

[The Sponge]

An aquaitance of mine just got back on Philly radio. gonna ask him to try to get Hopkins on the air.

 

[Kramden]

Hopkins is a future Hall of Famer but he may be an even better Boxing Manager. He does not take fights he can't win. It seems Hopkins has bamboozled another unsuspecting fighter.

Calzaghe is a marvelous talent but Hopkins has him leaving his element and moving up to 175 pounds and his own promotional outfit is calling the shots.

People forget how strong Hopkins is at 175
- see the Tarver fight when he trained with Mackie Shilstone. Hopkins is taking this fight MUCH more seriously than the Winky Wright fight. :142smilie