NBA Betting: Early Movers and Shakers Throughout the Opening Weeks of the 2025/26 Season

The curtain has barely risen on the 2025/26 NBA campaign, but already, oddsmakers have one truth burned into their memory: the Oklahoma City Thunder remain the team to beat. Last season, OKC ascended to the summit for the first time in history, winning the Finals with a thrilling seven-game victory against the Indiana Pacers and claiming the Larry O’Brien. This year, there’s almost a sense of inevitability swirling around Bricktown, with their blistering 8-1 start underscoring exactly why NBA odds providers priced them as the overwhelming favorites to defend their title. 

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One month into the new campaign, and that top billing remains exactly the same. The latest NBA lines at Bovada make the champs the +230 frontrunner to end this season in the same way they ended last: as champions. Much of that betting confidence stems from the brilliance of reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the undisputed architect of this young Thunder core, who continued to deliver under the bright lights. 

But while OKC and their favorite tag remain unchanged, plenty of other contenders have seen their odds either slashed or sliding after the opening month of action. So, who are the biggest of the movers and shakers thus far? Let’s take a look. 

Denver’s bet on depth was more than cosmetic—it was existential. Nikola Jokić, coming off another season flirting with triple-double averages, is as inevitable as sunrise. But the Nuggets of spring 2025 were exposed by a bench that could not defend a lead, let alone build one. Enter: Cameron Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Bruce Brown.

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Watch this team with an analytical eye, and the difference from last year is striking. Denver is top-five in assists, spacing is fluid, and early box scores show multiple double-digit scorers outside the core trio. Wins on the road against fellow Western powers such as the Timberwolves have already converted some book skepticism into enthusiasm. But the lingering question—can the defense play above its numbers?—locks in around the Nuggets’ minus-9.3 net rating when Jokić sits. 

The front office is engineered for war, and so far, the machine is purring. But until the second unit passes the crucible of playoff-level resistance, Denver still feels like a premium with a hedge.

With Stephen Curry still bending defenses and Jimmy Butler drawing switches, Golden State is a team built for cinematic narratives. The oldest active core in the NBA still flashes the institutional memory of champions, and when they get humming, there’s a majesty to their movement—a real sense of muscle memory honed over a dynastic decade. Since Jimmy Buckets arrived, San Francisco’s finest have a top-three net rating, a surging free-throw rate, and a locker room boasting four future Hall of Famers. As such, we shouldn’t be surprised to see that odds on a dynasty enjoying one last hurrah have more than halved since preseason. 

Yet, every narrative turn comes with a clasp of dread. The median age of core rotation pieces hovers near 34; injuries or mere fatigue—over an 82-game slate—are as predictable as any statistical variance. For bettors, the play is timing: when the Warriors are healthy, their ceiling is championship-caliber, as late-game composure and surgical execution return dividends. Fall behind the pace, or lose one pillar to the injury report, and the elevator drops rapidly. Their market value comes in bursts, not a slow drip, and the wise will watch for in-season inflection points before backing the band one last time.

The Knicks have become a permanent fixture in futures portfolios—and for good reason. No team in Madison Square Garden’s half-century of drama has been as well-balanced top-to-bottom as this year’s edition under Mike Brown. The addition of Karl-Anthony Towns and the symmetry with Jalen Brunson’s controlled aggression have created nightly mismatches, while OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges give them perimeter teeth rarely seen in MSG.

Yet, for every analytic uptick, a question mark follows—can they maintain composure and health as the schedule tightens? Last year’s deep run banished a generation of ghosts, but their undoing was mental lapses under pressure and attrition down the stretch. Yes, the Knicks managed to knock off their much-fancied rival Celtics in the Conference Semifinals, but what happened as soon as they were favorites to punch their tickets to a first Finals appearance this side of the millennium? They choked. 

So far, Brown’s new system has produced more creative reads and easier looks, but the season will eventually demand road resolve and crunch-time reliability. The market loves the upside; now the Knicks must turn that into a streak of statement wins.

Minnesota is the gambler’s paradox—so close, so promising, but trapped on the threshold. Anthony Edwards, a force of illumination on both ends, is on the horizon of superstardom—his slicing drives and volcanic scoring making him a perennial MVP dark horse. Rudy Gobert cleans the glass, and Jaden McDaniels brings rare positional defense; the vision is a true two-way juggernaut.
But cold, hard playoff lessons linger. Twice, the Wolves have reached the conference finals. Twice, they’ve hit a wall. Add to that a slow start to the 2025/26 season—currently sitting 4-4 after crushing losses to the Lakers (twice), Nuggets, and Knicks—and it’s clear why many feel that inability to get the job done against the very best still remains. Their odds have slid from +1400 in preseason to +2200 now, and defeating some of the big boys is the only way the Wolves will return to favor with punters.

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