Learn why amateur bettors should take the points.
– Not enough amateur bettors take the points.
– There is value in betting on underdogs in sports betting.
Why Amateur Bettors Should Take the Points
In sports betting, amateur sports bettors will back the favorite on a point spread bet somewhere between 65% to 75% of the time. That is actually an amazing statistic when you think about it.
The entire purpose of the point spread is to balance wagers on both sides. Why is it then that amateur bettors don’t take the points? Points are taken and done so consistently, otherwise sportsbooks would likely be out of business.
If amateurs are backing point spread favorites the majority of the time, who is taking the points? That’s easy. The answer is professional sports bettors and handicappers. Those are the guys that are recording the most wins and that is why amateur bettors should take the points more often than backing the favorite.
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Value on Underdogs
The value of betting on the underdog in point spread betting is the first justification for why bettors should take the points. Value is the one thing that all seasoned sports bettors seek out when placing wagers. If you can learn how to spot undervalued college basketball teams, for example, you can take your sports betting to another level.
Consider that someone is willing to give you an advantage if you’re going to bet on a certain team. Before a game even starts, your team is in the lead by four, seven, ten, or more points. That’s not a bad deal, and a professional bettor will take the points and use them to their advantage if they find a soft line they can exploit.
Take the Points Equals More Outs
The number of “outs” they have, as they say in poker, is another factor in why professionals favor underdogs.
When you back the favorite, you have one out, meaning you have one chance to succeed. To succeed, your team must win and beat the spread.
However, you have two options when you support the underdog. There is the option of winning the game outright first. If your team wins the game, they have covered the spread and you’re a winner.
You have another out in that the underdog can lose by a certain number of points and you still win the bet. If the point spread is 5 and your team loses by 3, you are also a winner.
When it comes to outs, the underdog team has a 2-1 advantage over the favorite. Professional bettors like to take advantage of this fact. Amateurs should do the same and take the points.
Motivation Is a Factor
When it comes to beating the point spread, a team’s motivation is crucial. A victory in professional sports is a victory. Whether you win by one point or by forty, the standings will treat them all the same.
The question is whether the favored team has the drive to cover the spread even though they are almost certain to win the game. A winning team may not necessarily care about winning by a huge margin as long as they win.
There are times when inferior teams are motivated to prove they are not as bad as people think. Take a college football team that is a 21-point underdog. The underdog may fight and not win, but covers the point spread as a result.
There are numerous times in a variety of sports when a team is a double-digit underdog and ends up covering the spread.
Take the Points – Underdogs Play Well
If you watch enough sporting events, you’ll notice that the underdog almost always makes a game of it—at least for the first half. They might have taken the lead or at the very least kept the game close going into the half.
Favorites are usually the better team and, as such, they usually come out in a second half and win. The question is whether or not they cover the spread. Oftentimes, underdogs play well enough to prevent a favorite from covering. There are certain sports where home underdogs are great bets. It’s one of many creative betting strategies.
Even if the favorite starts strong and dominates the first half, the chalk frequently falters in the second half. Sometimes it’s because the underdog has made adjustments, and other times it’s because the favorite has simply become complacent.
When trailing, the underdog will frequently outscore the favorite in the second half and take the game on points. For this reason, when betting the second half, many bettors select the team that is behind. Because of how underdogs play, it is wise for inexperienced bettors to consider taking the points on many of their point spread bets.
Read into Trends
Favorites do, in fact, win a lot of the games in their respective sports. There are situations in the various sports where it makes a ton of sense to take the points.
The bettor’s job is to find these instances. Pay attention to trends, motivational elements of games, and the matchups. These can all affect which team covers a point spread.
Always do your research and find the best games where you can win by taking the points. Betting on favorites, especially heavy favorites, is a recipe for disaster for any bettor. Take the points when it makes sense and enjoy your winnings.