NBA MON 033009 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[axp59]

thanks ax , will do ,but still will be looking for value plays before i leave . why do you think the line is so high in this gs game with jackson being out ?

I think it's the systems players looking at this incredible trend. Even my contact gave me this number as the one likely to get hit hard when released. It may have hit it's peak and money should start coming in on the under. This is also the economy of the board that i always talk about. There's only so much money that are wagered on a given day give or take. with only 4 games, money can't be spread out that much and are placed in key spots. Here, it looks like the over on GS. INHO

 

[VegasAce21]

Ax whats up bro?? does the quite heavy upward movement not bother you? even tho ur projections indicate an easy U. im just thinkin of that total the othe day (what the hell game was that?!) where it jumped like 5-6 pts n still went O. thanks bro...

 

[axp59]

Ax whats up bro?? does the quite heavy upward movement not bother you? even tho ur projections indicate an easy U. im just thinkin of that total the othe day (what the hell game was that?!) where it jumped like 5-6 pts n still went O. thanks bro...

yeah ace, i remember that too and i can't recall what game it was. I just keep thinking that there's another team here playing besides GS. I do have my reservations obviously but if i put too much thought into this, i'd talk myself out of what has been working for me all year. Now I'm locked in and along for the ride. And just as I thought, money already coming in on the under. Lines are starting to go back down in some books.

In @221.5, right where it peaked and i like it.

BOL brother

 

[Slicer]

Accuscore: 1:15pm

Magic 5.3 and 191.1
Nets 6.9 and 197.1
Utah 14.5 and 215.3
GS 8.5 and 221.9

I'm taking a pass tonight, gonna play UTEP for small $100 action play. Interesting that tourney is a best of 3 series for the championship in College basketball that is super rare and should present some good capping opportunities if the series should go 3 games.

PS. I'm dying for baseball to get here soon, it's time to make money and NHL/MLB is my profit season to pay for my NBA/NCAA/NFL/CFB habit :mj07:

 

[axp59]

PS. I'm dying for baseball to get here soon, it's time to make money and NHL/MLB is my profit season to pay for my NBA/NCAA/NFL/CFB habit :mj07:

I couldn't have said it better bro!

 

[grindstone]

grindstone:
you took those stats right out of Prof's thread from the other site
atleast give him credit for that
and prof's picks have been pretty decent lately
when the entire world was on phx yest a few followed sac and hit it
prof is recommending nyk tonight based on the stats grindstone pasted
bolta

My bad yes Prof did put these out I thought we were not suppose to mention other sites. Sorry about that.

Utah still sitting at -11 and 64% are on them with 1847 bet #

Also Orl - 2.5 with 70 % are on them but the line drops 1/2 point ???? 2980# bets

 

[PickNPop]

Ax whats up bro?? does the quite heavy upward movement not bother you? even tho ur projections indicate an easy U. im just thinkin of that total the othe day (what the hell game was that?!) where it jumped like 5-6 pts n still went O. thanks bro...

You are referring to the Pacers/Bulls game which shot up from 209 to 213 and still went over.

 

[t20boss]

Thank you for this jlipp, we can all use this reminder. I struggled with this game when the number came out at 218. I was expecting less, a lot less (my previous post) but when this thing jumped to 221.5. It sent up all the signals for the under play. I've been second guessing my 'routine' lately and I can't ignore it today.

Good for you, pal. Glad to see you stick to your 'routine'. At the end of the night, one of us will go to the window, and if it's you instead of me or Crockie or any of the others, then that's ok too. Hell, maybe it'll finish at 220, and we'll both be at the window ! Nothing but the best of luck to you, my friend. :toast:

 

[cubboy]

starting to fall already..think i will lock in the under 220

 

[axp59]

My bad yes Prof did put these out I thought we were not suppose to mention other sites. Sorry about that.

Utah still sitting at -11 and 64% are on them with 1847 bet #

Also Orl - 2.5 with 70 % are on them but the line drops 1/2 point ???? 2980# bets

Didn't MIA already avenge a road loss this season? This may be the case again here after that 20+ beating they took in ORL the last time. ETZ also told me that tonight is Mourning's retirement ceremony. MIA has all the motivation here with revenge, ceremony and trying to lock up the 5th spot with PHI on their tail. ML play maybe for value? what's the value in taking 2.5 (1 possession)? If ORL wins, they cover or MIA wins outright. IMHO this 2.5 may not matter much here. thoughts?

 

[axp59]

Good for you, pal. Glad to see you stick to your 'routine'. At the end of the night, one of us will go to the window, and if it's you instead of me or Crockie or any of the others, then that's ok too. Hell, maybe it'll finish at 220, and we'll both be at the window ! Nothing but the best of luck to you, my friend. :toast:

You know I feel the same way boss. It's not a me against you situation in this business. It just so happens we're on different sides tonight. I wish you, Crockie and all my friends the best. :toast:

 

[axp59]

starting to fall already..think i will lock in the under 220

BOL cub...let's send you off with a little spending money!

 

[axp59]

You are referring to the Pacers/Bulls game which shot up from 209 to 213 and still went over.

That was the one I was referring to...

 

[PickNPop]

That was the one I was referring to...

Does line movement like this ever concern you ax? I know there is this one capper at C*vers that bets Overs specifically on line movement and fishy lines.

 

[grindstone]

Didn't MIA already avenge a road loss this season? This may be the case again here after that 20+ beating they took in ORL the last time. ETZ also told me that tonight is Mourning's retirement ceremony. MIA has all the motivation here with revenge, ceremony and trying to lock up the 5th spot with PHI on their tail. ML play maybe for value? what's the value in taking 2.5 (1 possession)? If ORL wins, they cover or MIA wins outright. IMHO this 2.5 may not matter much here. thoughts?

Yes I think the ceremony is at the half and your right ML is definitely an option. Have to keep my eye on these 2 games AX. This is what I'm looking at.

 

[Crockie]

Fellas...O221.5 was just way to much for my comfort and hard for me to pass on the U. God I'm going to kick myself in the ass for this later but I can live with it. What the hell happened to the easy Mondays?

fade this...my record lately has not been anything to get excited about.

[738] TOTAL u221?-110
(MEMPHIS vrs GOLDEN STATE)

BOL to all you guys on the other side. These games are out of our hands.

Wow you're taking the under at a Golden State game :scared Respect Ax :toast:

I'm on the over today. I've taken the under one time @ two defenseless teams and will NEVER do this again! Over or no play for me. Especially when the teams are Golden State or Phoenix. Perhaps we got a total of 219-221 and we both hit

 

[axp59]

Does line movement like this ever concern you ax? I know there is this one capper at C*vers that bets Overs specifically on line movement and fishy lines.

Hell yeah. A moving line is a trailing indicator. Much like gas prices moving up or down. It's not really that gas prices are now 5 cents more or less in it's real value. It's what caused it to move 5 cents. Lowered demand, lower supplies, added transportation cost, profit margin adjustments, etc. So I do wonder why lines move and in this case, I think there's heavy emphasis on where the money can move on a board with only 4 games. Example: $1000 isn't spread around as much on a board with 4 games as it is on a board with 10 games. I think the money was just landing on this over initially. IMHO

 

[axp59]

Wow you're taking the under at a Golden State game :scared Respect Ax :toast:

I'm on the over today. I've taken the under one time @ two defenseless teams and will NEVER do this again! Over or no play for me. Especially when the teams are Golden State or Phoenix. Perhaps we got a total of 219-221 and we both hit

BOL on this Crockie!!! it's just one of those occasions we're on opposite sides. It happens. Here's to all of us cashing! :00hour

 

[grindstone]

Yes I think the ceremony is at the half and your right ML is definitely an option. Have to keep my eye on these 2 games AX. This is what I'm looking at.

Here you go AX this a revenge game for MIA. Last time out Wade dropped 50, but they still got hammered at home and lost 122-99.

 

[bobble1woody]

Axman, I don't have the time to get in depth like some of you do, but what i see a great deal of is when you have a line come out at ie, 218, and then it goes up to where it is now, 221+, go against the public here, after all, you know the public loses more than they win. When we see a large swing in movement like this, I believe the best way to go is against the public. Is this a wise way to wager, or am I just looking at it the wrong way?