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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Conference Championships

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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Divisional Games

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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Wild Card Week

    I cannot recall a worse ATS year for the model, with a paltry 49%-win rate. SU was a tad better than expected, hitting more than 73%, but it was still a disappointment. The O/U win rate at 56%, on the other hand, came out of nowhere, and I’ll keep it running for the playoffs. Below, I’ve added...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 18

    Not sure how to fix it, but the problem is apparent: the model’s margins of victory are not good enough. It can and does predict straight-up winners, but it likes too many losers (dogs), and that doesn’t bring home the bacon. Got a lot of work to do, but that will have to wait for next summer...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 17

    Totals going 37-22-2!! Trust me, all I did before I started posting O/Us in Week 13 was to tweak the algorithm a tiny tad, updated the officiating variable, and voilà – what was old is new again. I keep waiting for the balloon to pop, but it just keeps going – LOL. As far as the model’s ATS...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 16

    I’ve put the Limper’s Totals projections into the huge trash pile where it belonged. Since Week 1 it has gone off a steep cliff and is simply unreliable. The model’s ATS continues to stink it up, but SU remains consistently positive, so I’ll keep plugging away. GLTA
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 15

    A decent ATS result for the model last week, but a sharp regression (as expected) for Over/Unders, with a significant increase, overall, in the projection/losing score differential. I have to say however that the model has yet to crash and burn, so I’ll be progressing with it in order the obtain...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 14

    A better week, but it’s still been a crap season for the model against the spread. A bright spot has been its straight-up numbers; and then, out of nowhere, the first week of Over-Unders projections were better than I thought they would be. The Vegas line makers, however, must have looked up...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 13

    Although it’s predictable to see even good defenses fall apart in the 2nd halves of games, last week was pretty much over-the-top. Also predictable was that I was on the losing end of such games, along with the model. Anyway – it’s nearly Thanksgiving, and I expect the start of the Tanking For...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 12

    Went a whopping 8-6 ATS the past week. True, it’s not a lot to cheer about, but something is better than nothing. I also got lucky on a couple of parlays, making a tiny profit, but my Raiders ripped my heart out – again. SMH I’m the kind of bettor bookies love to see coming. However, I think 12...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 11

    So, the model flips to favorites last week and that’s when the dogs bark, not just covering but pulling 5 SU upsets. SMH. On top of which, I got blanked on my parlays, killing my win streak and has me looking early at the NBA to recoup. Anyway, the model is showing its confusion, now flipping...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 10

    In a nutshell: the model picked 10 dogs this past week, only 2 covered, and it wasn’t particularly close. Going 13-2 straight-up, the model knows who should win, and has aped Vegas by settling on favorites, but for no reason I can fathom is super-stingy when it comes to the MOV. It lost those 8...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 9

    Going 8-8 ATS the past week is no comfort, given the previous 3 weeks; but, I’ll take it as a step in the right direction. The model has been picking too many dogs to cover – it just won’t look at the Vegas lines seriously - but it’s not really designed to do that, so picking winners remains the...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 8

    Hard to find the bright spot in the past three weeks of the model’s performance, and I suspect there isn’t one. Even with its continued solid straight-up performance, it’s lost way too many of its dog picks to blowouts, or 3 point favorites to 2 point wins. Today, I’m blaming the injury module...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 7

    Another crappy week, when the model went dog-crazy - a week that saw favorites win and cover at a rate of 85% ATS! At least the model managed a good showing SU, and got another positive pick-flip from week 5, so all is not lost. It just feels that way. GLTA
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 6

    Believe it or not, the model’s had even worse ATS weeks before; but not like this lately, and not like this after Week 3. (There was even a closing line pick flip in the model’s favor and the week still turned out crappy.) It has also been projecting higher than normal scores, which I think is...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 5

    Road dogs are killing it thus far this season, going 57.8% ATS. The model continues its struggle ATS, but straight-up it’s about where it should be. Key player injuries, especially among QBs, is going to make a muddle of the Limper’s projections, but that’s what I pay my staff for. GLTA
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 4

    Such a relief to be done with year old data. Not that I expect the model to suddenly take off, but it’s a lot of work to squeeze in that third game of numbers from last season, it feels like a burden lifted. If you’ve been paying close attention: in addition to performing sweeps of various...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 3

    Last week was Upset City and the model responded with a big whiff. I’m sure Vegas sportsbooks cleaned up, with the public all in on DAL, BAL, SF and PHI; and the model seems to suffer from recency bias, going for the dogs in a big way, and, for some reason, higher scoring than we saw in the...
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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 2

    After a shaky start, the model performed better than expected ATS, and as expected SU - but about as badly as could be in projected game totals/ (For the sake of your wallet don’t use those numbers wagering O/U.) This week’s projections reflect a complex of variables using a combination of last...
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