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    The Limper NFL 2024-25 – Week 1

    Generally speaking, the projections below are based on past performance of teams, players, injuries and matchups. The problem is that the algorithm used requires 3 full weeks of data in order to run. Therefore, in the past, I wouldn’t post at all until Week 4. However, several years ago I found...
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    The Limper NBA 2024 Playoffs – Week 7

    A ton of talk has gone on about how Boston cruised to the Finals and winning 64 games by destroying the far weaker Eastern Conference teams. Which is definitely true, at least in the playoffs thus far; and going 40-12 vs Eastern teams in the regular season makes a similar point. That said Boston...
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    The Limper NBA 2024 Playoffs – Week 6

    Slowly, the model is showing improvement. At least, it’s pulling away from Vegas’ straight-up results, now by 6%. ATS the model’s still struggling. However, sneaking up to a 50% win rate are the models’ totals’ results, with a total score variation (TSV) improvement last week, down to 9.6 pts...
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    The Limper NBA 2024 Playoffs – Week 5

    I can’t recall when I’ve watched so many playoff games where past-performance numbers have mattered so little. I’m speaking, specifically, of the second round games in the Western Conference, although the Knicks/Pacers series also defies logic. If not for Boston/Cleveland, which was predictable...
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    The Limper NBA 2024 Playoffs – Week 4

    Not for nothing has the model’s ATS record gone full garbage, straight-up it’s barely beating the Vegas favorite’s SU record – 62.7% - which it usually grinds to dust. Hard to pick a side when the numbers aren’t reliable. Looking back, the model’s had worse 2nd rounds, but this year it’s pushing...
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    The Limper NBA 2024 Playoffs – Week 3

    FWIW – Although favorites and home teams are winning straight up at 62.5%, home teams have dropped slightly to 47.5% ATS, with both favorites and dogs covering 50% of the time. Over picks have won 5 of last 6, but still lag behind Unders overall. Currently, the average totals for all playoff...
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    The Limper NBA 2024 Playoffs – Week 2

    Score totals have been trending lower thus far, with Unders hitting about 60% of the time. Don’t know if this will keep up, but it bears watching. GLTA
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    The Limper NBA 2024 Playoffs – Week 1

    Finally!!! Finally, the real 2024 NBA season begins. I don’t much care for the low projected scores, especially for a 1st round, and I think more weight is being given to regular season results than it should - but it is what it is. I reworked the weighting of all variables weeks ago, and I was...
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    The Limper NBA 2023-24 – Week 8 (Yeah – I lied)

    Did a season long manual sweep of lines and found a number of “closing lines” which weren’t! Some ½ pt higher, some ½ pt lower, and found 12 that were consequential, which, after adjustment, netted 3 more wins and 2 fewer losses – in the end pushing up enough of the model’s ATS record to a point...
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    The Limper NBA 2023-24 – Week 7

    The next three days could be the last postings until the playoffs begin. Now with 2 out of 5 red-flags waving, the model is trending toward unreliable. Too many starters/key players sitting at tip off or playing reduced minutes, makes a monkey out of an algorithm which is based on past team and...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Super Bowl LVIII

    Hard to believe this is it: the end of the NFL season. The model likes the 49ers by a smidgen, but all I know is that betting against KC vs Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore has cost me enough!!! The projected scores are higher than I think they should be; the defenses I watched in this post season...
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    The Limper NBA 2023-24 – Week 6

    Well, I asked for the model’s improvement, and improve it did. Maybe threatening to shut it down is the best medicine. At least, this past week the red-flag number dropped from 4 to 1 - the league/model MOV variation remains too high for comfort – but I’ll push on (like playing through an...
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    The Limper NBA 2023-24 – Week 5

    The model crashed and all but burned last week, with 4 out of 5 red flags waving SOS!!! The problem is posting projections too early in the day, before late starter scratches are announced. Ideally, I’d post no earlier than just before tip-off, but I have errands to run and other things to do...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Conference Finals

    Only 3 games left! Hard to believe, it’s gone by so quickly. The model held up pretty well, albeit with all the usual glitches. Hope you all had a good season. GLTA
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    The Limper NBA 2023-24 – Week 4

    Overall, a decent – but shortened – week for the model. No red flags yet, but hoping the straight-up record improves. GLTA
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Divisional Games

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    The Limper NBA 2023-24 – Week 3

    Held over in Hong Kong an extra day, but better late than ever. Had great weather in Macau. Renewed some acquaintances I hadn’t seen in 50 years. Lost a ton of $$$ on NFL games, but had luck at poker tables. Anyway, good to be home at last. GLTA
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Wild Cards

    The model had a decent finish to an overall decent regular season, so I won’t hang my head. On the other hand, I finished the year going 0-15 on my parlays this past weekend; the first skunking I’ve suffered in years, and I’m still shaking my head. The model, for some reason, is projecting...
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    The Limper NBA 2023-24 – Week 2

    Not the best week, by any means. Some years the model finds certain team’s numbers unreasonably attractive, while some others it just plain hates. It would take a full-on surgery to remove those bugs – something I’m not prepared to do – so somethings just need living with. The model seems to...
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    The Limper NBA 2023-24 – Week 1

    Better late than never – I suppose. The fact is, I’ve been running the model for a couple weeks – with rather poor results. Not sure where the problem lies because making fairly accurate score NBA projections, given more than 2 months of data, should be pretty much a snap; but that hasn’t been...
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