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  1. Smitty

    Sunday 10/10

    definitely not the start to the season i was looking for. leaving for vegas on wednesday. hopefully i'll be able to figure out how to post from my phone. nyj/atlanta over (46) 2 units. yeah, i got a bad line on thursday. two teams that spent 6 days saying "we're seriously in fucking...
  2. Smitty

    Sunday 10/3

    i'm gonna try posting my plays on the day i make my bets. let's see if that helps me post a little more consistently. didn't love anything this week. lord knows i don't have the discipline to not bet. dallas (-6.5) 1 unit to win 1.2. took the alternate line on this one to swing the juice in...
  3. Smitty

    Week 2

    week two is usually the best week to make money. that said, this is reminding me of last year, and i'm not finding a lot of plays. oh well. trying to not force anything. indy (ML) 1 unit to win 1.7. taking one more stand against the rams. buff/mia over (48) 2 units. feels like they are...
  4. Smitty

    Week One

    well, well, well, it's that time of year again. i'm gonna try to get back into the habit of posting again. we'll see how it goes. running a little late for the 1:00 games. and, full disclosure... this year i'm bullish on denver and bearish on carolina. let's call it the teddy bridgewater...
  5. Smitty

    Buff/KC Discussion

    kc is favored by 3. question for the panel... is that the line assuming mahomes plays? or does that line assume mahomes is out? or is that line going to move one way or the other whenever an announcement is made declaring him the starter or out of the game? any thoughts? i'm playing kc...
  7. Smitty

    Superb Owl Liv Tyler

    about 8 weeks ago, i bet the niners to win the SB. 2 units to win 10. i'm letting it ride, as i love their chances today. in championship games, good defense beats good offense. i'm hoping all the injured niners on the defensive side of the ball are healthy enough to make a significant...
  8. Smitty

    Sunday

    easily the best two weeks to start the playoffs i've ever had. hard to believe i'll keep it going for 3 more games. but here's what i've played so far. tenn/kc 1st Q over (9.5) 1 unit tenn 1st H (+4.5) 1 unit tenn (+7.5) 4 units tenn (ML) 2 units to win 5.6 over (52.5) 2 units. well, i'm...
  9. Smitty

    NC Game

    i don't love this game. but, because it's the nc game, i'm putting 8 units down. clemson 1st H (+3.5) 2 units clemson (ML) 4 units to win 6.8 over (69.5) 2 units. just feel like i'm getting some value on the tigers. no, the other tigers. i'm not entirely sold on lsu's defense. so i think...
  10. Smitty

    Saturday/Sunday

    last weekend was damn near perfect, so i'll probably regress to the mean this weekend. sf (-7) 2 units over (44.5) 2 units. the more i think about this game, the more i like san fran. i was tempted to throw some more on them, but decided against it. i'm not going to dig up the numbers...
  11. Smitty

    The Who Gives a Fuck Bowl*

    *full disclosure - that MAY not be the official title of monday's game. miami oh (+13.5) 2 units miami (ML) 1 unit to win 3.6. do i really think miami will win this game? no. louisiana has been solid this year. but i figured i'd take a shot at the big upset in the last bowl game of the...
  13. Smitty

    Wild Card Weekend

    just an fyi... nobody is colder than i am right now. as always, bill barnwell's column is a must read for these games. https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28403463/barnwell-guide-2019-nfl-playoffs-how-all-12-teams-win-super-bowl houston 1st H (-.5) 2 units 1st H under (21.5) 2 units houston...
  14. Smitty

    Armed Forces Bowl?

    didn't we already do this? do i need to make another lame rotc joke? well, i am on one of my patented runs. can't hit a bet to save my life. so do yourself a favor, and fade, fade, fade this play. tulane (-7) 5 units. ok, i'm living in the past on this one. i really enjoyed watching...
  15. Smitty

    Potato Bowl

    mmmm... potato bowl.... keeping it short and sweet. ohio had a very disappointing season in frank solich's last year. no reason to think it won't end in a disappointing loss on the blue turf. nevada (+8) 2 units nevada (ML) 2 units to win 4.6
  16. Smitty

    Thursday

    well, having a week and a half off during bowl season has been terrific, even if i had the flu the entire time. but i gotta go back to work tomorrow, so posting these now... Birmingham Bowl bc 1st H (+4) 3 units bc (+7.5) 3 units bc (ML) 2 units to win 4.6. taking a shot against an...
  17. Smitty

    Michigan's OC

    3 notes: 1) maybe stick with the ground game when it works 2) throwing every first down, running every second down, and throwing every third down is not tricky. and i think the defense has picked up on it. 3) you haven't even been CLOSE to completing a deep pass outside the hashes all day...
  19. Smitty

    New Years Day

    happy new years everyone! If you followed my picks yesterday (and remembered it was opposite day), you had a perfect day! that's right! i lost every fucking bet yesterday. including all 3 games that came down to the wire. pretty impressive. the only bet i really regret was utah. i knew...
  20. Smitty

    Tuesday

    last day of 2019. wow. bowl season hasn't gone as i'd hoped, but i'm still eeking out a small profit. Belk Bowl virginia tech (-2) 1 unit 1st H under (23.5) 1 unit under (46.5) 1 unit. the more i look at this game, the more i wish i'd bet a little more. it's bud foster's last game, and...
  21. Smitty

    Monday

    First Responder Bowl western kentucky (-3) 4 units. and starting to think i should have put even more on them. wmu has a pretty balanced offense, led by levante bellamy, who averages 5.7 yards/carry. the toppers have a solid run d, only giving up 3.7 yards/carry. in fact, their d has been...
  22. Smitty

    Sunday

    ugh. gotta take a break from bowl games for some boring-ass nfl crap. here is my annual reminder.... if you bet a team because "they need this game", then you should stop betting on sports IMMEDIATELY. atlanta (pk) 4 units. one last chance to bet against tampa at home, where they have been...
  23. Smitty

    Saturday

    running late, not much time for write-ups. Cotton Bowl memphis 1st H (ML) 2 units to win 3.4 memphis (ML) 2 units to win 4 memphis (+7) 3 units under (60) 2 units. purely an anti-psu play. i haven't been all that impressed with them this year. especially clifford. they had their hopes set...
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