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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 16

    My Standings frame is a mess. It’s not rocket science, but computing simple conference and division wins along with win/loss records to determine division positioning, isn’t happening with the current shape of the algorithm – so I’m leaving it aside. (In truth, I’m just too lazy to break it down...
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    NFL 2023-24 WEEK 15

    Once again, because difference-making injuries to key players are so many and have such an impact on matchup numbers, I’ve run my injury module for the initial projections below. Throughout the league Defenses have suffered far more injuries than Offenses, and the model now projects higher...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 14

    While initial projections are, normally, based on players who started the previous week, I saw too many significant injuries to key players to let it go. So, I ran the injury module today, and these initial projections are based on those results. GLTA
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 13

    My injury module, which is deployed 3-4 times a week – scouring injury reports for data that impacts specific team matchups – has had a few hiccups lately. When the projection for last night’s turkey between the Bears and Vikings – out of nowhere - bumped the Vikes’ SU from 2.6 to 3.4 and...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 12

    Week 12 in the NFL contains mostly snoozers – thanks to the AI genius which slapped the schedule together. Unders are still the rule, hitting above 60%, and the Limper – for the 1st time this season – is projecting an average game total of less than the league average - by a full point. Margins...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 11

    A very weird weekend, and it ended perfectly with the Bills pretty much putting a fork in their playoff chances with their own sloppy play. (Making it a good day for Bengals fans, as Cincy owns the tie-breaker) And this season is shaping up for a fascinating end, with teams like Chicago, the...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 10

    Week 9 is in the books – halfway there – and (for good or ill) the model’s Trends Adjustments kicks in. most notably, projected scores increase as offensive efficiencies start matching defenses and warm-weather-based teams playing away at cold-weather sites begin to struggle. Hoping the model’s...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 9

    Talk about statistical regression! Week 8 was an ugly one for the model, despite consistency in SU performance. Had a decent ATS showing until the closing lines turned everything south, but that’s an old story. Hoping for better with a half season of data in the bank. GLTA
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 8

    Lost $ last night on the 49ers, whose defense the last couple games can’t stop anything; looked more like Denver or the Chargers. I usually just play parlays, but my wife talked me into SF. She said “You picked them – so bet them.” I did, and now our weekly lunch date is at Burger King. Also...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 7

    Some really bad end-of-half and end-of-game play calling this past weekend, and some truly awful teams exposed. Unsurprising that Unders are the going trend as Vegas line-setters can’t keep up with abysmal offenses, which are plentiful. Finally got the Standings frame the way I want. Power...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 6

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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 5

    Both power rankings which I calculate are based on a C-Ave which is a combination of the win/loss record, strength of opposition and statistical rankings in the major categories. These variables are objectively determined, but are weighted subjectively (my own cockeyed opinion that things like...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 4

    Wacky season; wacky numbers, adding up to a data-based projection of 11 dogs covering in week 4. ELEVEN! WEEK 4! That’s saying 1 of 2 things: 1. Vegas line-setters are having a collective breakdown; or 2. my algorithm needs more work than I’ve given it. And it’s not like dogs are covering at a...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 3

    It’s still early, but the quality of NFL offenses – especially QB play – has, to my eyes, taken a huge nosedive. There are, of course, predictable exceptions, and horrendous O-Line play across the league has a big impact, but watching MNF yesterday left me cringing. Dogs, per usual, are feasting...
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    Congratulations

    I just want to congratulate you folks for the latest remodeling you’ve done on this website. It’s now the best one going.
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 2

    The problem with using data that’s a year old is that it’s a year old; but, it’s either that or not post until after week 4 – which I used to do. And after a start like that it crosses my mind to start skipping the first 4 weeks again, but since I’ve already started posting this year, I’ll just...
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    The Limper NFL 2023-24 – Week 1

    Back when Caesar was a corporal and I was doing my first NBA projections, I thought it was a snap. The first couple of months, I was really nailing it, and I thought I was really onto something. But then the number gods stepped in and said hold your horses young man, and kicked me in the teeth...
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    The Limper NBA 2023 Playoffs Week 7 - 6/7/23 - 6/12/23

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    The Limper NBA 2023 Playoffs Week 6 - 6/1/23 - 6/5/23

    The model, although having a crappy ATS post-season, likes the Nuggets as much as Vegas, Serbia and most of the rest of the world (outside of Florida), but I’m pulling for Miami, just because. GLTA
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    The Limper NBA 2023 Playoffs Week 6 - 5/23/23 - 5/29/23

    These playoffs have been both weirdly surprising, and great to watch. Boston’s epic collapse, and Miami’s unprecedented surge is still must-watch tv, and Denver’s sweep of L.A. was the closest sweep I’ve ever seen. For today’s game, the model just can’t let the dead Celtics rest in peace – but...
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