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The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 7
The model embarrassed itself this past week, going 5-9 ATS, and barely making 50% SU. A season like this makes a fool out of numbers – at least so far – but numbers have a way of bouncing back, so I’m hopeful, My Geno Smith Watch continues. Of QBs with 6 starts this season, Smith ranks 2nd in...- WillyBoy
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- Replies: 7
- Forum: Flying Pigskins (NFL)
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The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 6
The model is going dog wild, picking 12 to cover!!! However, given the narrowness of projected margins of victory to the current lines, I see a number of final pick-flips when the closing lines are posted. Also - FWIW - There were a bunch of swings in the numbers when “confirmed” injuries were...- WillyBoy
- Post #6
- Forum: Flying Pigskins (NFL)
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The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 6
The rankings below are subject to more than simple numbers – especially for QBs. Because context matters, each variable used for every category are weighted according to W/L/P records and strength of opposition; and, in addition, variables used in the QB rankings, are subject to descending...- WillyBoy
- Post #4
- Forum: Flying Pigskins (NFL)
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The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 6
Dogs are still king, now hitting 61.5%, which means Vegas line-setters have their collective heads up their butts, and sportsbooks are raking it in. The model is starting this week liking 9 dogs, but these numbers are based on what teams and players did last weekend. We’ll see how starter...- WillyBoy
- Thread
- Replies: 6
- Forum: Flying Pigskins (NFL)
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The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 5
Some odds & ends you might find useful.- WillyBoy
- Post #8
- Forum: Flying Pigskins (NFL)
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The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 5
Out of pretty much, nowhere, Jacksonville has improved itself on both sides of the ball this season. Instead of fighting for last place with the likes of Chicago in terms of team salaries, they’re up there with the grownups at Albums – and it shows in the results. Detroit (#14) also has loosened...- WillyBoy
- Post #6
- Forum: Flying Pigskins (NFL)
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The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 5
Bear in mind, the Power Rankings below are based strictly on numerical data gathered thru Week 4. My own eye-testing tells me the Vikings are not better than the Chiefs (although their secondary made Matt Ryan look 10 years younger, and their special teams are a joke), and the Bengals belong...- WillyBoy
- Post #2
- Forum: Flying Pigskins (NFL)
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The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 5
Dogs remain the way to go against the spread, hitting it at a 61.3% clip. And dogs are killing the Limper as well, which may be why the model has (at least for the moment) gone dog-crazy, expecting 13 to cover this week. Also, FWIW, home teams, on the other hand, are underperforming at 50% ATS...- WillyBoy
- Thread
- Replies: 8
- Forum: Flying Pigskins (NFL)
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The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 4
FWIW - The Offense/Defense rankings below are based on numbers from the first three weeks, with a measure of number-massaging according to my personal preferences. Which is to say that I tend to value passing numbers over rushing, redzone efficiency (where the Lions are killing it) over scoring...- WillyBoy
- Post #4
- Forum: Flying Pigskins (NFL)
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The Limper NFL 2022 – Regular Season - Week 4
Rankings below are based on a Composite Average (C-AVE), using Win/Loss/Push (PCT), Strength of Opposition (O-AVE), and a ranked score of a number of statistical variables (R-AVE). The Value Power Ranking are similarly based but using a valuation of the strength of opposition in determining...- WillyBoy
- Post #2
- Forum: Flying Pigskins (NFL)
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