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  1. Smitty

    Wednesday 2/22

    it's been a while since i've posted college hoops plays. i'm a lot better at football. but i've been on a very good run, so thought i'd put an end to that by posting my plays. we'll see how this goes. i am going to throw out one factor that has been helping me. normally, i'm fairly...
  2. Smitty

    Super Bowl Thread

    OMG, I said "Super Bowl". I hope the NFL doesn't sue me. :scared Alrighty, figured I'd get this started with the side and total, and I assume I'll be adding some props over the next few days. Playoffs Record Sides 6-2 +19.3 ML 2-3 +2.7 Totals 13-10 +18.1 Props 5-5 -2.5 KC (ML) 4 to win 4.2...
  3. Smitty

    NFC/AFC Championship Games

    Playoffs Sides 6-1 +13.7 ML 2-3 +2.7 Totals 9-9 +6.1 Props 5-5 -2.5 Alright, I have some open bets that will influence my plays here. About 4 days before Garoppolo got hurt, I bet SF to win the NFC at +275. So, while I really like SF today, I will not be adding more on the Niners. And prior...
  4. Smitty

    Divisional Round

    Playoffs Sides 4-0 +10.0 ML 1-1 +1.7 Totals 1-6 -15.8 Props 4-2 +3.1 Hmmm.... I usually do fairly well on totals. Well, another weekend full of overs will not be good for me. Saturday After liking the Jags all week, I'm having 2nd thoughts. Seeing way too much love for them, but the line has...
  5. Smitty

    Wildcard Weekend

    Alright, let's get this party started. Seattle @ SF After a surprising 6-3 start to the season, Seattle went to Germany and lost to TB. That began a 3-5 finish to the season, with wins over the Rams (twice, barely) and the Jets. Geno Smith has looked more like, well, Geno Smith since that...
  7. Smitty

    NC

    Bowl Record Sides: 14-14 +6.6 ML: 8-9 +12.0 Totals: 26-24 -3.7 That late TD in the Rose Bowl put me in the red on totals for Bowl Season. Not the greatest couple weeks, but still a solid profit. Sorry, not gonna delve into the numbers for this game. We know who these teams are. Magical...
  8. Smitty

    NFL Week 18

    ugly card this week. clev (ML) 6 to win 7.2. Great, riding the Browns again. But this line is BEGGING for Steelers money. They have something to play for, the Browns don't. The Browns are in turmoil, as evidenced by the Clown(ey) situation. Cleveland has lost 47* straight games in...
  9. Smitty

    Monday 1/2 Bowls

    ReliaQuest Bowl Illinois' offense... meh. Brown had a good year, and he's out for this game. Not as big a loss as you might think. He only averaged 5.0 yards/carry. They just gave him the all a LOT. That tells me he's probably a product of good offensive line play. Miss St was vulnerable...
  10. Smitty

    NFL Week 17

    Needed a lot of advil and ice after the brutal beating i took yesterday. New day, new year. Carolina (+3.5) 6 units Carolina (ML) 4 to win 6.6 Carolina/TB Under (40.5) 2 units Carolina/TB 1H Under (20.5, -125) 4 units Carolina 1H (ML) 4 units to win 5.8. Tampa has been so bad, particularly in...
  11. Smitty

    Saturday 12/31 Bowls

    Bowl Record Sides: 12-10 +20.4 ML: 7-7 +7.6 Totals: 23-17 +15.2 December 31st? Seriously? Man. Sugar Bowl This one's really not about x's and o's. Despite what they are telling the media, there's no way Alabama is excited for this game. Are they good enough that they could catch a few...
  13. Smitty

    Friday 12/30 Bowls

    Well, my computer picked a fine day to shit the bed. Luckily, I already got a new laptop, but I haven't set it up yet. So I'm doing the best I can, but fucking around with this has me way behind today. We'll see how this goes... Mayo Bowl Both teams have good numbers against the pass. NC...
  14. Smitty

    Thursday 12/29 Bowls

    Bowl Record Sides: 10-10 +10.4 ML: 5-6 +5.8 Totals: 18-14 +10.4 Cheez-It Bowl Meh. We have a now-overrated FSU team against an OU team that... well, sucked this year. There does appear to be a distinct motivational edge, as a couple key members of the FSU defense (Verse and Robinson) who...
  15. Smitty

    Wednesday 12/28 Bowl Games

    Military Bowl Both of these teams are led by dual-threat qbs who lead their team in rushing. Plumlee finally gave up on Ole Miss and has been good at UCF. He averages 7.7 yds/att and has thrown for 14 TDs and 7 INTs. His main value is with his legs. He's averaging 5.8 yards/carry. He is...
  16. Smitty

    Tuesday 12/27 Bowl Games

    Camellia Bowl Well, I can't bet it, so obviously I'm not going to spend any time on it. I did noticed that GASO is 127th in the country, allowing 5.7 yards/carry. A Pop Warner team could run on these guys. So far in the bowls, the MAC is 2-0 ATS as a dog and 0-2 as a fav. Most likely I'd be...
  17. Smitty

    Quick Lane Bowl

    Happy Boxing Day!! :toast: Two crap teams. My plan was to not spend much time on this game. Just bet the dog and the under and call it a day. And that's probably where I'm going to land. But let's spend some time with New Mexico St and Bowling Green. First, what a fun game to dig into...
  19. Smitty

    Hawai'i Bowl

    Merry Christmas, everyone! Let's get one more win so we don't have to sell the toys under the tree. Ok, the conventional wisdom is that SD St is the same as they are every year... outstanding defense and a crap offense that usually does just enough to win games. Well, y'all know Smitty doesn't...
  20. Smitty

    Friday 12/23 Bowl Games

    Independence Bowl I am really torn on this game. I want to bet against Houston. But this ULL team is not good. I know, I know, mediocre teams often beat unmotivated superior teams. I watched ULL against Southern Miss and was thoroughly unimpressed. And that was WITH Wooldridge, their...
  21. Smitty

    NFL Week 16

    updating my record with last night's picks that i posted in my week 15 thread jax (ML) 2 units to win 2.5 nyj tt under (19.5) 2 units updated sides 13-10 -0.1 units ML 9-13 +5.7 totals 19-17 +5.8 props 2-2 +2.8
  22. Smitty

    Armed Forces Bowl

    well, one night after that debacle we have my favorite game of the bowl season. I bet AF last week, luckily for me. No X's and O's for me on this one. Last year, Baylor bounced back from a horrible 2020 (2-7) by coming close to the playoffs and going to the Sugar Bowl. not sure how excited...
  23. Smitty

    Sugar Bowl! Whoops, it's the New Orleans Bowl.

    Sometimes getting bets in early can really bite you in the ass. Last week I bet USA. At -7.5. Not even knowing that Reed wasn't expected to play. Well, things changed and now the line is around 4. Oh well. Still debating whether or not to add more. I probably will. USA is a pretty solid...
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