2 dog days

kosar

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With all of the talk about how rare it is for 2 decent sized dogs to cash on the same day, I ran a quick query.

1st 20 days of August:

1. 50 dogs of +130 or greater came in for and average of 2.5/ day.

2. Average price of +155

3. 7 of the 20 days had only 1 >+130 dog, but 4 of those days were 3 or 4 game cards and 2 of those days didn't even have 2 +130's to choose from. There were zero days where there was not 1 +130.

4. So with an average size card or better, there were only 3 days out of 16 that failed to deliver 2 decent sized dogs.
 

kosar

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The month of July was very similar to the first 20 days of August.

Of 27 gamedays in July (3 day all-star break and 1 day with only 1 game), this is how it breaks down:

1.77 dogs of +130 or greater came in for a daily average of 2.85.

2.Average price was +157.

3. 5 days had only one dog come in and 1 day had zero dogs come in, so 6 out of 27 days failed to deliver the goods.

Since July 1st:

1. 127 +130's came in over 47 gamedays (which includes 4 short cards) for an average of 2.70 / day.

2. Average price of +156

3. In 34 of 43 days with normal sized cards, there were at least 2 decent sized dogs. At 79% of the time, that's not really that rare.
 

Tiger

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Interesting stuff kosar. Thanks for running it and then posting it here.
 

kosar

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Tiger,

No prob. I realize that actual facts aren't as interesting as guesses, theories, feelings and odd stray comments taken as gospel, but what can you do?
wink.gif
 

MadJack

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welp....you restored my confidence in the dogs a bit by this post. i sure haven't been able to find them but at least i know they're out there
smile.gif


i think i'm throwing in the towell for the rest of the year. ah.....probably not.

thanks!
 

Nick Douglas

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Jack,

Don't give up, baby. You know as well as anyone that baseball is a way better moneymaker than NFL will ever be. I mean, you still have 40 days or so. That is over two full NFL seasons worth of games to bet on. With September callups and pennant races there are gonna be lots of good chances to hit them dogs.
 

Randercity

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KOSAR... I believe the STATEMENT you may be referring to is what NICK posted in his thread, concerning his phone conversation with FLETCHER, and repeated by me in my thread. The DOGS that were being referenced were BIG DOGS, in other words, +160 or more I believe, possibly +170. If you would, please try this and see what results you find. It's OBVIOUS that not every favorite wins, or any fav over -140 wins, but I would be curious to see your results of two DOGS +160 or more in one day.

If this is too much trouble, simply inform me where I may find such info and I'll do it myself... thanks for the insight just the same.
 

kosar

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"KOSAR... I believe the STATEMENT you may be referring to is what NICK posted in his thread, concerning his phone conversation with FLETCHER, and repeated by me in my thread."

RANDERCITY,

Don't ever 'assume' what i'm referring to. Nick's post that you are referring to actually mentioned how rare it for 2 +200 dogs to come in in one night. Obviously that's not what i'm talking about here. I mean, OF COURSE it is rare for 2 +200 dogs to cash on the same night. Not the point.

"The DOGS that were being referenced were BIG DOGS, in other words, +160 or more I believe, possibly +170. If you would, please try this and see what results you find."

Already addressed above. Not the point of my post. But if you are genuinely interested, then i'll run it.

"It's OBVIOUS that not every favorite wins, or any fav over -140 wins, but I would be curious to see your results of two DOGS +160 or more in one day."


I know that it is OBVIOUS that not every favorite wins. I also know a lot of people ( but surely not a sharpie like yourself) don't understand the power of betting underdogs selectively. They come in a lot more than it seems.


"If this is too much trouble, simply inform me where I may find such info and I'll do it myself... thanks for the insight just the same."

You can find this info on my computer, or you can find this info with just a bit of work on your part. Even though we are very good friends, i'll have to ask that you do the little bit of work, if that's ok, rather than giving you access to my database.

My post was in part meant to illustrate the folly of hedging totally independent bets because 'it just can't happen 2x in one day'. If there was perceived value when you bet it, then why isn't there now, just because some totally unrelated event took place?

I think that it was a fair benchmark(+130) that yielded an average of +156 on the dog plays and clearly illustrated that the multiple dog winners are there day after day after day.

I'm sorry if you misunderstood.
 

Randercity

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Ok... so whose comment were you referencing?? I don't recall another comment on this board in regards to two dogs, other than my own, and NICK's. Could you please refer to the post that was questioning this?

I find it hard to believe that someone would doubt the possibility of two dogs hitting that are only +130, but if you show me, then I'm a believer...

And btw... if you make it clear, like in CUTTING AND PASTING the talk that spurned this whole thread, then I would not HAVE to "assume" you were referencing myself or Nick...
wink.gif


[This message has been edited by Randercity (edited 08-21-2001).]
 

kosar

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"Profitcity",

You see, this thread wasn't based on any *particular* comments, but a composite, and it wasn't intended to try to prove anybody wrong, or whatever.

It was based on the discourse lately about hedging off of value plays because xyz cannot happen. Nick had a thread about this a while back and I have seen this concept referenced at least 1/2 dozen times since then, in one form or another.

Maybe some thread, or post of yours was one of them. Knowing you, it probably was. I don't really know. I don't really care.

My post was for information. Take it for what you will.

You seem to be afflicted by the same disease that the other members of your "clueless posse'" are stricken with. That's right, sensitivititus. Unfortunately there is no known cure for this sickness, but it does help when you are surrounded by those suffering the same. So you will probably be ok.
 

Allnet

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Good stuff. Like Jack, I know the winning dogs are out there, but can not find em on a regular basis. My season stats reflect that.
I am still learning, or should I,attempting to learn. Really enjoyed the comments, but I have to add, with exception of the last 3 paragraphs above. Don't quite see the need for those type comments, but that's your business , and not mine. Not trying to stir anything, just commenting. Thanks again for the info.



------------------
"A group is better than any individual"
 

Randercity

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Hmmm someone once said, to speak with a child and understand, one must become like a child... so here goes!

"Profitcity",
You see, this thread wasn't based on any *particular* comments, but a composite, and it wasn't intended to try to prove anybody wrong, or whatever.

It was based on the discourse lately about hedging off of value plays because xyz cannot happen. Nick had a thread about this a while back and I have seen this concept referenced at least 1/2 dozen times since then, in one form or another.

Funny how you open your thread with all the talk about how rare it is for 2 decent sized dogs to cash on the same day,... etc... but you can't seem to recall where... The DOGS being referred to were BIG DOGS, not decent and if you ever got off the porch, you'd know the difference. I read nearly every thread here, and have NOT seen that, maybe I'm missing something, but you're right, it doesn't really matter.

The following however does matter:
Maybe some thread, or post of yours was one of them. Knowing you, it probably was. I don't really know. I don't really care.

You don't know me, or anything about me so please refrain from passing judgement. I give respect to those who earn and deserve it, and that includes EVERYONE who has enough fortitude to contribute to this forum. The members on the FREE PICKS I hold in great regard, they've earned it. There are many others here who contribute to this forum on a daily or almost daily basis, and I respect them as well. You are free to say what you want about me or them, but using sarcasm and such to cause dissension is not needed, wanted, or helpful.

I have been coming here for quite some time, and I fail to see your contribution. Maybe you only post in Football or something I don't know, but I have YET to see one important piece of handicapping information come from you, nor have I seen you bother to post an opinion on a side, a selection or anything that wasn't a personal vendetta or attack on another in here for the sole purpose of "stirring up s**t" as others have pointed out before.

THIS great revelation of
actual facts aren't as interesting as guesses, theories, feelings and odd stray comments taken as gospel, but what can you do?
is just a sarcastic remark, nothing more. You FAIL TO SEE the point... showing that 79% of the time, 2 or more dogs hit on the same day is totally worthless trivial information. HOW many dogs did you have to lose on those days to hit two??? Three, four, five??? IF it was only two, you make a UNIT, if three you're breaking even. FLETCHER's point as noted by NICK was simply, it's a rare day to hit a +180 to +200 dog, and if you do, and you have a chance NOT to play another that day, one may want to consider it. That very thing occurred tonite when PITT finished off ARIZ at +220, many cappers were on DET, but they failed to get the money, or even the RUNLINE. TAKE the PROFIT and go... that was FLETCHER's point.

And your reference to me in your thread earlier
I know that it is OBVIOUS that not every favorite wins. I also know a lot of people ( but surely not a sharpie like yourself) don't understand the power of betting underdogs selectively. They come in a lot more than it seems.

You sarcastically refer to me as a sharpie, later calling me clueless and suffering from a disease, all the while I've been posting a NEW DOG SYSTEM now for the past five days. Funny that someone as highly read and intellectual as yourself would have missed that... must have been too busy looking for all those "other" references or stirring up someone else's septic tank.

And as far as your last statement,
You seem to be afflicted by the same disease that the other members of your "clueless posse'" are stricken with. That's right, sensitivititus. Unfortunately there is no known cure for this sickness, but it does help when you are surrounded by those suffering the same. So you will probably be ok.

That's real classy...

I have no "posse", no following that I know of, nor do I desire one. I simply try and put out some useful insight or stats that may help someone make a profitable wager, as do many that come here. I have those I respect and come to their defense when they are slighted, and I give my share of GOOD JOB, great capping, etc... to let others know they're being helpful and are appreciated.

I personally fail to see your agenda. To say that those of us who are here daily and trying are "clueless" and suffering from being too sensitive is uncalled for. I could care less what you think about me, as I'm sure you don't lose sleep over what I think about you. BUT if you really want to help, I mean that IS what this forum is for, how about CLUEING the "posse" in, and giving us some real insight for a change???

You could start by coming up with a SYSTEM of playing these TWO DECENT DOGS, or how to know if it's a TWO DOG DAY. ANYTHING, and I do mean ANYTHING, that is meaningful and insightful and not a QUOTE from another, followed by your sad sarcasm...

As a side note... in the past six days, my system came up with plays on 29 dogs, or an average of almost five a day. There were however, many more that were passed on. Not all were +130 or more, but I'm sure the average DOG price was over +150, but I'll check and make note here.

The actual figures are 29 plays in five days, or almost six dogs per day. The average dog used was +155 so far, and there have been four dogs less than +130 posted in my thread.


[This message has been edited by Randercity (edited 08-22-2001).]
 

kosar

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I just put up a few tidbits of information, and somehow you twisted it into some attack on you, Fletcher, Nich Douglas and Lord knows who else. My original post had nothing particularly to do with you or anybody else . Nothing.

You can feel free to disregard the information as useless, or whatever, but don't assume that the world revolves around you and that somehow a 'normal' post is taking some shot at you. It may have turned out that way, but only after you fired the first shot.

I have no idea what you are rambling on about in regards to your 'dog system'. I'm sure it is doing fine, but i'm not quite sure how it renders a few simple facts useless. Oh well, apparently a few people found it interesting.

I don't really consider that stuff 'totally worthless, trivial information', and I surely don't see posting that stuff as 'stirring up shit in a septic tank'. But like I said before, each person should take anything for what they will.

As far as posting plays consistently here or anywhere, it probably will never happen. Your comments about 'never seeing a play' from me are old-hat. Naturally that is the kneejerk reaction from people that find it extremely useful to coattail others picks and will see people that don't post plays as non-contributors. That's really sad, if you think about it. Slapping 13 plays a day up there really is only done to satisfy an ego. That's boring to me, but to each his own.

Besides, you know the old saying about teaching a man to fish vs. giving a man fish. I think it's very analogous to the old ' throw picks up on the board and be a hero for a day, but God forbid an actual discussion or disagreement breaks out, or that somebody cuts through total nonsense and totally harmful bs that somehow ends up getting taken as gospel'.

You take care now, Profitcity, and if my next thread is about you, i'll let you know. Otherwise, try not to be so sensitive.

Allnet, your point is well-taken. A few of my comments were certainly not needed, but when in Rome, I guess. Thanks for the post.
 

KotysDad

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Kosar,

Thanks for the information. I have thought about looking up these kinds of numbers recently but just didnt have the energy. I took the post strictly as an FYI and found the numbers interesting. I would have to dig a little deeper into some probability theory to see if the results are within a range that you would "expect" to see, or if there really is anything "non-normal" going on within the data. Might be a good exercise for myself to try to clear some of the summer cobwebs before my classes pick back up again. I am always looking for some good problems or exercises to throw at the students and have gotten a few problems from the site.

If I get any interesting results, I will post them if anyone is interested in a follow up.
 

Randercity

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KOTYSDAD,

If you could, pleae run the numbers on +180 DOGS and up as I inquired of KOSAR. I would find it interesting to see if FLETCHER was right about his theory of two big dogs NOT hitting same day. I agree with KOSAR that it shouldn't necessarily eliminate a play on a late DOG of +180 if you did find it to be a qualified play, but if it happens only about 2% of the time, it may be worth passing the late one and taking the profit. I know the one event (2nd big dog) is totally unrelated to the first event, but if they never coincide???? hmmmm Simply mathematics I guess. What I guess I'm getting at is, if a person plays DOGS alot, PASSING on the 2nd dog at a heavy price may be a profitable way to go for them, or as suggested, playing the RUNLINE instead. After all, a pass on a losing wager is as good as a win!

And finally KOSAR, I've re-read my first comment to you, and I still fail to see how you could take that as an attack. Saying "I believe the statement you may be referring to" was not an assumption, nor did I use the word assume. In fact the only one assuming anything by my comments was you. You assumed I was attacking you or causing a stir, and I was not.

I find it very hard to believe that anyone who follows baseball on a daily basis doesn't realize that dogs of +130 hit on a regular basis, even a daily basis. The best teams only win 2 of every 3 games, and if they are at home, obviously they are going to be -140 or more at home unless facing a top notch pitcher. Where I found fault with your findings, was you seemed to imply that NICK, FLETCH, etc were WRONG in their statements, without disproving it. You made it sound like hitting two dogs is much more possible than it is, which in my opinion is very misleading to this forum. Showing how two dogs hit 79% of the time at an average of +156 means if the first dog hit at +180, then the 2nd one could only be +130 to +135 to compile your average of +156. THIS, in effect, PROVES what FLETCHER said, that two large dogs DO NOT hit on the same day. Comparing a +130 dog to a +180 is apples and oranges. Again, I'm not attacking you or what you were trying to accomplish, but I would find it more useful if applied to the larger dogs or there was a breakdown of win/loss percentages of dogs at various prices, home/away, etc... I know that sounds like a lot of work, but if you have the database available, it would not take much or long.
 

KotysDad

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Ok, I have collected all the data on the +180 dogs and better for the entire year. Give me a day or two to analyze the data and I will start a new post on the results of Kosar's numbers and Randercity's request.

I am gonna need at least a few hours to "unbuggy" my eyes from looking at the lines and scores from the entire year on the computer screen
eek.gif
lol


[This message has been edited by KotysDad (edited 08-22-2001).]
 

loophole

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hey guys, just a few words in passing. when nolan posted his thoughts on his "devil's advocate" approach to handicapping, most all the response i saw was positive, as well it should be. his were obviously well-thought-out for all who seek to improve their sports handicapping.

now, having been hanging around these parts for awhile, i am quite familiar with kosar, and his posting inclination has mostly been similiar to my own. that is, we are both more inclined to post up information or thoughts on handicappinfg as opposed to plays. i for one seldom post plays except occasionally when i think i'm hitting well, or if i have a superstitious urge, or if i'm posting up a regular series during college football or hoops. i would much rather see an exchange of ideas, a dialectic or debate if you will, of thoughts on handicapping rather than a list of plays as i feel the former assists me much more personally in my ultimate goal of playing a higher percentage of winners.

i recognize every poster in the thread above as one who, at one time or another, has made valuable contributions to the collective knowledge of this forum, so i feel safe in asserting that all who have engaged in the sniping above are persons of reasonable intellect and maturity. being such, and given the affirmation of nolan's premise set forth above, i would assume we would all welcome when someone makes a post that challenges us to reconsider what we might have previosly posted as gospel on some aspect of handicapping. hell, i know i do. the point is - don't attack the messinger who begins the adversary discussion that will make us all better in our collective purpose. defend your position by all means, but if we descend to attack the personality of our antithetical opponent, all the benefit rapidly decays into puerile, argumentitive crap that does me or anyone no good or help in what we're trying to accomplish. i know you all will take this in the spirit in which it is intended.

good luck to all.
 

jng

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I mean . . . where the hell else besides Madjack's can you find great information, the proper use of the word "puerile" and even the correct spelling of the word "complement" to mean augment, add to or go well with. (As opposed to spelling "compliment" . . . "Well thank you, yes I have lost some weight.")

Loophole's words and thoughts are worth rereading because the relative anonymity of online communications occasionally leads to dickheadedness. (I made that last word up.)

BTW, in retrospect, while I might want to fade Tapani, the best play of all was the over. Most book charge heavy vig for retrospective 'capping and playing though.

GL

J
 
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