gjn,
Maybe you should "win in the dark" with those fades then, and not have your meal ticket stop posting.
Your logic about Nolan seems all wet. The guy studies the game, and finds what he feels is an angle. To say that his time didn't matter because the bet lost, is irrelevent.
Two guys, with ZERO knowledge of wagering could pick opposite sides of the game. One would win.
Personally, I don't think all the tendencies in the world can make a guy a winner in this business, and it all comes down to which side of the coin you are on. Sooner or later, Nolan will hit a shitload again, enroute to that 46-54% range we all attain.
Good luck to you, but like a "Don't" bettor at craps.......you need to be quiet when you win.