What Palin does
1. Steps on the story of Obama?s speech (and convention), and possibly the bounce coming from them, and wipes them off the news cycle. The Sunday news shows will be all-Palin, all of the time.
2. Sends Republicans into their convention on a huge head of steam.
3. Wipes out the image of McCain as the crotchety elder and brings back that of the fly-boy and gambler, which is much more appealing, and the genuine person.
4. Revs up the base AND excites independents, which no one else in the party, or perhaps in the world, could have accomplished.
5. Puts youth, change, and history on both of the tickets.
6. May detach some young people, especially women.
7. May attach some women pissed off about Hillary.
8. As a pro-life super-achiever, puts feminists in a tizzy.
9. Revives some of the double-edged nature of the Democratic primary, which featured a black vs. a
female trail-blazer, and put both sides on notice on sensitivity issues. Democrats used to raising charges of racism against Obama?s critics may face charges of sexism and/or condescension if they try to diss her.
10. Steps on Obama?s claims to have been a reformer, as he reformed nothing (much less the corrupt mare?s nest of Chicago arrangements), while she was a dragon-slayer up in Alaska.
11. As a mother of five, one a Down Syndrome baby, helps her side take on the Democrats on abortion extremism and the Born Alive bill.
12. Reignites the deep and unhealed stresses inside the Democrats, some of whom will now wonder more loudly than ever why they didn't pick Hillary.
13. Counters Michelle in a way Cindy couldn?t.
14. Counter-intuitively, makes the issue of Obama?s light resume more potent than ever. Her lack of experience is no more than his is. And he?s--to use a term from Alaska, and the Iditarod--their lead dog.
5 early reasons it was the Dumbest choice ever by McCain.
1. She Undercuts the ?Obama Is Inexperienced? Argument
A favorite and, in my opinion, effective line of attack from the GOP is the experience angle. Obama?s real government resume is thin in comparison to McCain?s. Some serious points have been scored with this line of attack. I think a large reason Obama hasn?t broken away further in the polls is simply because the inexperience question is resonating with the undecided voters. People sort of like the Obama story, but they are balking at electing someone with so little experience.
Now, the Republican candidate has chosen someone with almost no experience to be next in line to lead the free world. Pretty much any charge of Obama?s inexperience can be answered quickly and deftly by the Democrats.
The experience factor will be thrust firmly into the limelight at the Vice Presidential debate. Biden could potentially expose what a lightweight she is, and bring up uncomfortable questions about McCain?s judgement.
This is no trivial matter. McCain has handed the Democrats a significant gift here, and this alone could finish his candidacy.
2. She Delivers Nothing Geographically, Nor Maybe Demographically
About a month ago there had been some noise that Alaska had been trending for Obama in the polls. However, I?m not so sure Alaska?s 3 electoral delegates are much of a concern anyway. Beyond that, Palin has appeal to the rugged Western voter types. Unfortunately, most of these states are safely GOP as it is (Utah, Arizona, Alaska, Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana). She won?t be bringing anything new into play.
I?m not really a proponent of the ?VP brings in a geographic region? theory anyway. The last time I?ve heard it working was Lyndon Johnson delivering Texas for Kennedy. That?s what, almost 50 years ago? What I?m more interested in with the Palin pick is the demographics.
Supposedly (see #1 above) she?s supposed to bring in those Hillary voters. I hate to point out the obvious, but I really don?t see too many of them crossing party lines for a woman that is pro-life. This single issue alone could really cut into any of the votes that McCain hopes to steal. Those rugged Western women that she really, really appeals to are already safely McCain supporters.
3. This Looks Like A Desperate Pick
Let?s face it, in the political arena, perception is huge. If this pick is spun as a desperate attempt by McCain (and it?s plausible that it can be so spun), then this could be big trouble for the GOP.
Now the questions come: Why is McCain desperate? What?s wrong with his candidacy? Now he looks weaker. Once he looks weaker, suddenly that becomes the narrative. Once that becomes the narrative, he may not be able to recover from that.
Obama hit McCain on the judgement issue in his acceptance speech. This adds further ammunition to that argument. Can McCain?s judgment be trusted when he makes such a VP pick out of desperation?
4. Palin Underscores McCain?s Age Problem
The McCain camp has done a solid job of keeping the age issue tamped down. This pick, however, brings it back into the limelight.
First, as mentioned in #6, Palin is very, very inexperienced. Someone with her resume would not conceive of running for President. The idea that she?s the next in line for the job will make people ponder that hypothetical a bit. What are the chances of her actually being our president? Well, with a 72 year old candidate, they are better than most. People will start thinking again about McCain?s age, and that?s not what the GOP wants on voters? minds.
Second, Palin is 44. This is younger than Obama. This is a stark contrast to McCain?s 72. She?s young enough to be his daughter, and that does not look so good. Image is a lot in politics and having McCain and his daughter running together is not exactly the image that his campaign wants to put out there.
5. Palin Has A Whiff Of A Political Scandal Of Her Own
Palin had her sister?s ex husband fired from his government office position. I don?t know how much traction this abuse of power scandal has, but it could be rather embarrassing for McCain if it goes much further and the Dems dig deeper in to it.
