great job this season Al...continued success in the bowls...hope you and yours have a great holiday season
bowl plays & info.....
- Thread starter AR182
- Start date
thanks guys...appreciate it...
BOWL SYSTEM
BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS
One of the simplest & most successful bowl systems around, is to go against the
team on which the current Heisman Trophy winner plays. Let's see how this
simple & uncomplicated trend has fared over the last 34 bowl campaigns.
YEAR BOWL FOE OF HEISMAN WINNER LINE RESULT
1974 SO CALIF 18 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6? WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 - Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3? Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 - Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6? WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 - Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 - So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7? WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 - So Caro (George Rogers) 9 - 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 - So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 - Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 - 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 - Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11? WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 - Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 - Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2? WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 - Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 - Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4? WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 - Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2? Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 - Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 - Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 - 6? WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 - Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 - Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15? WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 - Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7? Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 - Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 - 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 - Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3? Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 - Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 - Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6? Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 - Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13? WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 - Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 - 8? WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 - Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 - Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5? WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 - So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 - So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 - Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 - Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10? WINNER
RESULT: 24-8-1: 75% VS SPREAD
BOWL SYSTEM
BUCKING THE HEISMAN WINNER IN THE BOWLS
One of the simplest & most successful bowl systems around, is to go against the
team on which the current Heisman Trophy winner plays. Let's see how this
simple & uncomplicated trend has fared over the last 34 bowl campaigns.
YEAR BOWL FOE OF HEISMAN WINNER LINE RESULT
1974 SO CALIF 18 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 17 + 6? WINNER
1975 UCLA 23 - Ohio State (Archie Griffin) 10 + 14 WINNER
1976 GEORGIA 3 - Pittsburgh (Tony Dorsett) 27 + 3? Loser
1977 NOTRE DAME 38 - Texas (Earl Campbell) 10 + 6? WINNER
1978 NEBRASKA 24 - Oklahoma (Billy Sims) 31 + 11 WINNER
1979 OHIO STATE 16 - So Calif (Charles White) 17 + 7? WINNER
1980 PITTSBURGH 37 - So Caro (George Rogers) 9 - 10 WINNER
1981 PENN STATE 26 - So Calif (Marcus Allen) 10 + 2 WINNER
1982 PENN STATE 27 - Georgia (Herschel Walker) 23 - 4 Tie
1983 MIAMI (FLA) 31 - Nebraska (Mike Rozier) 30 + 11? WINNER
1984 HOUSTON 28 - Boston College (Doug Flutie) 45 + 6 Loser
1985 TEXAS A&M 36 - Auburn (Bo Jackson) 16 + 2? WINNER
1986 PENN STATE 14 - Miami (Vinnie Testaverde) 10 + 7 WINNER
1987 TEXAS A&M 35 - Notre Dame (Tim Brown ) 10 + 4? WINNER
1988 WYOMING 14 - Okla St (Barry Sanders) 62 + 2? Loser
1989 Houston (Andre Ware) did not go to a bowl.
1990 TEXAS A&M 65 - Byu (Ty Detmer) 14 + 3 WINNER
1991 WASHINGTON 34 - Mich (Desmond Howard) 14 - 6? WINNER
1992 ALABAMA 34 - Miami (Gino Torretta) 13 + 8 WINNER
1993 NEBRASKA 16 - Florida St (Charlie Ward) 18 + 15? WINNER
1994 NOTRE DAME 24 - Colorado (R. Salaam) 41 + 7? Loser
1995 TENNESSEE 20 - Ohio State (Eddie George) 14 - 4 WINNER
1996 FLORIDA ST 20 - Florida (Danny Wuerffel) 52 + 3? Loser
1997 WASH ST 16 - Michigan (Charles Woodson) 21 + 6 WINNER
1998 MISSISSIPPI ST 11 - Texas (Ricky Williams) 38 + 6? Loser
1999 STANFORD 9 - Wisconsin (Ron Dayne) 17 + 13? WINNER
2000 OKLAHOMA 13 - Florida State (Chris Weinke) 2 + 10 WINNER
2001 MIAMI-FLORIDA 37 - Nebraska (Eric Crouch) 14 - 8? WINNER
2002 IOWA 17 - Southern California (Carson Palmer) 38 + 5 Loser
2003 LOUISIANA ST 21 - Oklahoma (Jason White) 14 + 5? WINNER
2004 OKLAHOMA 19 - So California (Matt Leinart) 55 + 2 Loser
2005 TEXAS 41 - So California (Reggie Bush) 38 + 7 WINNER
2006 FLORIDA 41 - Ohio State (Troy Smith) 14 + 4 WINNER
2007 MICHIGAN 41 - Florida (Tim Tebow) 35 + 10? WINNER
RESULT: 24-8-1: 75% VS SPREAD
thanks dp...appreciate it...
play # 5....
under 41 bc / vandy.....
i was holding off from making this play because i thought that maybe the line would go up...but i just noticed that a few of the vegas casinos dropped the line to either 40 or 40.5....so i took the total at 41 in case my books followed....
if you look at bc's scoring average this year, you will see that it's between 24-25 ppg......but that includes 9 tds that were either scored by the defense or special teams...for the season the bc offense averaged only 19-20 ppg....but alot of that was with their starting qb playing....now that he was injured few games ago, the backup bc qb will be making only his 3rd start of his college career & to date he has completed only 48% of his passes....he will be throwing into a very good vandy defense that ranks # 29 in total defense & #12 in pass defense...& gives up about 20 ppg.....other than giving up 42 to fla, the most points scored against vandy in any game this year was 24.....on the other side of the ball, vandy's is ranked #104 in total offense & they average about 19 ppg.....they will be playing against the bc defense that ranks #20 in the nation.....
with both teams having time to prepare for this game, i think it will be tougher for either team to get special team scores.....& with both of vandy's qbs & the bc qb hitting less than 50% of their passes, this game can turn out to be a real yawner......now all together...1,2,3, punt...1,2,3, punt.....etc, etc...
there are a few bc trends that favor the over...but that was with their starting qb playing....vandy doesn't have any trends favoring the over, but has quite a few favoring the under....here are just 2...
vandy is 6-0 under after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.....the average score was vandy 15.3, opponent 16.2
vandy is 8-1 under as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.....the average score was vandy 17.7, opponent 21.0
good luck
play # 5....
under 41 bc / vandy.....
i was holding off from making this play because i thought that maybe the line would go up...but i just noticed that a few of the vegas casinos dropped the line to either 40 or 40.5....so i took the total at 41 in case my books followed....
if you look at bc's scoring average this year, you will see that it's between 24-25 ppg......but that includes 9 tds that were either scored by the defense or special teams...for the season the bc offense averaged only 19-20 ppg....but alot of that was with their starting qb playing....now that he was injured few games ago, the backup bc qb will be making only his 3rd start of his college career & to date he has completed only 48% of his passes....he will be throwing into a very good vandy defense that ranks # 29 in total defense & #12 in pass defense...& gives up about 20 ppg.....other than giving up 42 to fla, the most points scored against vandy in any game this year was 24.....on the other side of the ball, vandy's is ranked #104 in total offense & they average about 19 ppg.....they will be playing against the bc defense that ranks #20 in the nation.....
with both teams having time to prepare for this game, i think it will be tougher for either team to get special team scores.....& with both of vandy's qbs & the bc qb hitting less than 50% of their passes, this game can turn out to be a real yawner......now all together...1,2,3, punt...1,2,3, punt.....etc, etc...
there are a few bc trends that favor the over...but that was with their starting qb playing....vandy doesn't have any trends favoring the over, but has quite a few favoring the under....here are just 2...
vandy is 6-0 under after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons.....the average score was vandy 15.3, opponent 16.2
vandy is 8-1 under as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 2 seasons.....the average score was vandy 17.7, opponent 21.0
good luck
play#6...
tcu...ml...
there were only 2 teams in the entire country this season that allowed their opponents less than 4 yards per play....usc (3.38) & tcu (3.77)...tcu has played 5 bowl teams this season including okla., byu ( 7 points & 297 yds), & utah (13 & 275 yds) who all averaged over 35 points & 400 total yards per game...tcu held okla. to their season low of 35 points & missed limiting them to their season low in total yardage by just 1 yard as they allowed 436 yds., while texas allowed 435.....the sooners were the only team that tcu allowed to gain more than 300 yds....they were 1 of only 3 teams to record 40+ sacks & allowed less than 50% pass completion & 47.1 ypg rushing per game...tcu has been simply dominant in every defensive aspect all season long & i think they will be able to control the boise offense, who hasn't faced a defense like tcu....
here is who boise had played this year.....idaho st, bowling green, at oregon, lou tech, at so. miss., hawaii, at san jose, at new mex. st, utah st, at idaho, at nevada, fresno st....none of these teams are known for having a quality defense....
boise has been extremely good at keeping teams from scoring but they gave up over 300 yards 6 times....bowl teams such as oregon & nevada gained 464 yds. & 385 yds. respectively...with tcu averaging 215.7 ypg rushing the ball & 201.4 ypg in the air, i think tcu will be able to move the ball against the boise defense.....
also undefeated bowl dogs of less than 10 points are 1-5 su/ats......
i look for a double digit win....
good luck....
tcu...ml...
there were only 2 teams in the entire country this season that allowed their opponents less than 4 yards per play....usc (3.38) & tcu (3.77)...tcu has played 5 bowl teams this season including okla., byu ( 7 points & 297 yds), & utah (13 & 275 yds) who all averaged over 35 points & 400 total yards per game...tcu held okla. to their season low of 35 points & missed limiting them to their season low in total yardage by just 1 yard as they allowed 436 yds., while texas allowed 435.....the sooners were the only team that tcu allowed to gain more than 300 yds....they were 1 of only 3 teams to record 40+ sacks & allowed less than 50% pass completion & 47.1 ypg rushing per game...tcu has been simply dominant in every defensive aspect all season long & i think they will be able to control the boise offense, who hasn't faced a defense like tcu....
here is who boise had played this year.....idaho st, bowling green, at oregon, lou tech, at so. miss., hawaii, at san jose, at new mex. st, utah st, at idaho, at nevada, fresno st....none of these teams are known for having a quality defense....
boise has been extremely good at keeping teams from scoring but they gave up over 300 yards 6 times....bowl teams such as oregon & nevada gained 464 yds. & 385 yds. respectively...with tcu averaging 215.7 ypg rushing the ball & 201.4 ypg in the air, i think tcu will be able to move the ball against the boise defense.....
also undefeated bowl dogs of less than 10 points are 1-5 su/ats......
i look for a double digit win....
good luck....
Al, I really like the TCU ML play due to the same reason you posted. Boise has had a virtual cakewalk this season and have not seen a defense like the one the Frogs will bring.
Good luck with your bowl selections and congratulations on a fine season.
Good luck with your bowl selections and congratulations on a fine season.
thanks guys......
judge where are your bowl picks ?...haven't seen them....
i have been thinking more & more about the tcu / boise bowl game tomorrow & i think that boise must be feeling disappointed that they are not playing in a bcs bowl game after going undefeated for the 2nd time in 3 seasons....instead they will be playing in a pre-christmas bowl game against a team that is ranked lower than them in the ratings....how motivated can they be by not playing a game against one of the big boys from a bigger conference in a more prestigious bowl game ?.....on the other hand i really think that this is the matchup that tcu wanted....to go against a higher ranked undefeated team & show everybody that they belong as an elite program.....
so in addition to the matchup advantages that i noted in my previous writeup, i think tcu also has a motivaional edge & am bumping my tcu ml play to 5*......
good luck
judge where are your bowl picks ?...haven't seen them....
i have been thinking more & more about the tcu / boise bowl game tomorrow & i think that boise must be feeling disappointed that they are not playing in a bcs bowl game after going undefeated for the 2nd time in 3 seasons....instead they will be playing in a pre-christmas bowl game against a team that is ranked lower than them in the ratings....how motivated can they be by not playing a game against one of the big boys from a bigger conference in a more prestigious bowl game ?.....on the other hand i really think that this is the matchup that tcu wanted....to go against a higher ranked undefeated team & show everybody that they belong as an elite program.....
so in addition to the matchup advantages that i noted in my previous writeup, i think tcu also has a motivaional edge & am bumping my tcu ml play to 5*......
good luck
PLAYING DEVILS ADVOCATE , AR, AND I AM NOT SURE IF I AM MAKING A PLAY ON THIS GAME, I THINK BOISE ST HAS PLENTY OF REASONS TO BE MOTIVATED.
1)THEY ARE FROM IDAHO, I-D-A-H-O--TO GET A CHANCE TO GET THE HELL OUT OF THERE TO SDIEGO HAS TO BE UPLIFTING
2) THEY CAN TEST THEIR PROLIFIC OFFENSE AGAINST TOP NOTCH DEFENSE IN COUNTRY
3) PERHAPS THE BIGGEST MOTIVATOR WILL BE ON THEIR DEFENSIVE SIDE OF THE BALL---BOISE'S D IS BETTER THAN EVER, AND TCU'S D IS GETTING THE LION'S SHARE OF THE HYPE--I THINK THE PLAY ON THIS GAME IS UNDER AND IF BOISE WINS IT WILL BE MORE FROM A GREAT DEFENSIVE EFFORT. EITHER WAY SHOULD BE GREAT GAME. GL
ROCKY
rocky...you were right that boise would be motivated...but still not impressed with them....
hit my 5* play on the tcu moneyline..but am disappointed because i thought that they should have won by double digits & show the football world what a fraud boise is & that they had no business thinking that they belonged in a bcs bowl game....but i will gladly take the win...
so far my bowl record is...2-1....
making another moneyline play...
nd....ml...
after losing 9 straight bowl games i think nd will be fired up to end that streak & i think the class difference in the programs will show.....
play on - road favorites vs. the money line (notre dame) - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, in the second half of the season.
since 1992 the moneyline won / loss record is......33-4........89.2%
good luck & happy holidays...
hit my 5* play on the tcu moneyline..but am disappointed because i thought that they should have won by double digits & show the football world what a fraud boise is & that they had no business thinking that they belonged in a bcs bowl game....but i will gladly take the win...
so far my bowl record is...2-1....
making another moneyline play...
nd....ml...
after losing 9 straight bowl games i think nd will be fired up to end that streak & i think the class difference in the programs will show.....
play on - road favorites vs. the money line (notre dame) - off a road blowout loss by 28 points or more, in the second half of the season.
since 1992 the moneyline won / loss record is......33-4........89.2%
good luck & happy holidays...
They would have went up 20-17 if not for that phantom holding call on Ian Johnsons run down to the 1........:shrug:
All in all a pretty good game........TCU maybe could have dictated the game more had the gotten an early lead............
what about the 2 phantom pass interference calls against tcu....:shrug:
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Al-
Happy holidays, man. All the best in 2009.
GL with the Notre Dame play tonight and the remainder of the bowl season.
Happy holidays, man. All the best in 2009.
GL with the Notre Dame play tonight and the remainder of the bowl season.
thanks guys.....
i decided to try for a middle in tonights game...i don't think hawaii will get blown out at home by nd...in addition i read this trend earlier today...
bowl teams playing in their home stadium are 14-5 ats as long as they?re not favored by 7 points or more......& teams that end the regular season by scoring less than 7 points (the irish scored 3 points against usc) are just 3-15 ats in bowl games as a favorite or small dog of less than 3 points.....
so my play tonight looks like this....
nd...ml
hawaii +4 (140)...
good luck & happy holidays...
i decided to try for a middle in tonights game...i don't think hawaii will get blown out at home by nd...in addition i read this trend earlier today...
bowl teams playing in their home stadium are 14-5 ats as long as they?re not favored by 7 points or more......& teams that end the regular season by scoring less than 7 points (the irish scored 3 points against usc) are just 3-15 ats in bowl games as a favorite or small dog of less than 3 points.....
so my play tonight looks like this....
nd...ml
hawaii +4 (140)...
good luck & happy holidays...
