bowl plays & info.....

A

AR182

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thanks walii...appreciate it....

this md / nev. total is run away train again like a couple of other totals in earlier bowls....& it is too tempting to not take a shot at a middle...

my book now has the total at 61.5....the stat site that i use has 2 computer generated totals that both come out with a total of 61....

so this is what i did...

over 58(120)
under 63.5 (150)

i have a 6.5 point middle with some key total numbers (59, 62, 63) included....so the worst i can do is lose $100 on the under juice or lose $40 if it falls under 58.....& of course if it falls in the middle i can win $400.....i think it's worth a shot....


good luck
 
gardenweasel

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AR182 said:
thanks walii...appreciate it....

this md / nev. total is run away train again like a couple of other totals in earlier bowls....& it is too tempting to not take a shot at a middle...

my book now has the total at 61.5....the stat site that i use has 2 computer generated totals that both come out with a total of 61....

so this is what i did...

over 58(120)
under 63.5 (150)

i have a 6.5 point middle with some key total numbers (59, 62, 63) included....so the worst i can do is lose $100 on the under juice or lose $40 if it falls under 58.....& of course if it falls in the middle i can win $400.....i think it's worth a shot....


good luck
Click to expand...

always brother...i`ve hit 2 middles with teaser kickers so far in the bowls...

i think it`s a very smart move.....g.l.
 
A

AR182

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doing it again.....

playing a middle again on the total in the insight bowl between minn / kansas because a capper that respect is on the under......

over 57(130)
under 61(130)


good luck
 
A

AR182

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thanks gw...

play #16....

lsu +5 (130).....

i am in a hurry so my writeup will be brief....

gt is a good team but there is too much love for them against a team that matches up well with them....the lsu defense has a weakness..it's pass defense.....it's run defense finished the year ranked #16 in the nation.... when gt faced a top 35 rush defense (happened 3 times they scored 19, 17, and 21......that's an average of 19 points per game.....while i think the lsu offense is very underrated....average 30+ points per game in a very good defensive conference.....

a couple of systems....

play on a Bowl sec underdog of more than 2 points with less than 36 days rest vs. an acc opponent......... sec dogs are 10-0 ats since at least 1980, winning 9 of the games outright and clobbering the spread by nearly 19 ppg on average.....

play on a bowl underdog of less than 14 points/pick ?em with 4+ season su losses off 2 conference su/ats loss/pushes vs. an opponent not off 2 home favorite su wins in its last 2 games.......since 1980, these teams are 15-0 ats, covering the spread by 12 ppg on average......

what i also like about this play is that gt won it's biggest game of the year already when they beat georgia......


good luck
 
3

3 Seconds

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AR182 said:
thanks gw...

play #16....

lsu +5 (130).....

i am in a hurry so my writeup will be brief....

gt is a good team but there is too much love for them against a team that matches up well with them....the lsu defense has a weakness..it's pass defense.....it's run defense finished the year ranked #16 in the nation.... when gt faced a top 35 rush defense (happened 3 times they scored 19, 17, and 21......that's an average of 19 points per game.....while i think the lsu offense is very underrated....average 30+ points per game in a very good defensive conference.....

a couple of systems....

play on a Bowl sec underdog of more than 2 points with less than 36 days rest vs. an acc opponent......... sec dogs are 10-0 ats since at least 1980, winning 9 of the games outright and clobbering the spread by nearly 19 ppg on average.....

play on a bowl underdog of less than 14 points/pick ?em with 4+ season su losses off 2 conference su/ats loss/pushes vs. an opponent not off 2 home favorite su wins in its last 2 games.......since 1980, these teams are 15-0 ats, covering the spread by 12 ppg on average......

what i also like about this play is that gt won it's biggest game of the year already when they beat georgia......


good luck
Click to expand...

Good Luck AR. With you this one. Line up to +5 -110.

ML is +170 & I think that is worth the shot...
 
A

AR182

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am 9-1 so far in the bowls....& am playing my first teaser of the year......

7.5 pt teaser....

usc-1.5
under 52.5


good luck & happy new year
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys....

play #18....

clemson....ml...

we all know about nebraska's high powered offense...but imo clemson's offense is quite capable of scoring points also as they have scored 27 or more points in 4 of its last 5 games...& 1 of the reasons for this is because they have finally gotten some stability on the offensive line as they have started the same players on the line in the last 3 games....on defense, clemson has performed well all season long allowing only 2 opponents, bama & fla st to score more than 21 points...all totaled they held 6 of their 12 opponents to 14 or fewer points....while the neb. defense allowed an average of 362 total yards for the season & is ranked 66th nationally....

play on - all teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (clemson) - average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 ypr) against an average rushing D (3.5 to 4.3 ypr) after 7+ games, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games......

over the last 10 seasons the record for this situation is....31-9.......77.5%

the situation's record this season is.....5-0.....100%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is......18-4......81.8%


good luck & happy new year
 
A

AR182

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no problem woodson...but i am due for it to go the other way...

play #19....

so. carolina +4 (120)....

iowa is favored here because it has a slightly better record and looked more impressive at the end of the year.....while the iowa did close the year well, they're 2-8 ats the last 10 times that they were coming off back to back su wins....on the other hand so. car. closed the season with b2b losses......they were both on the road at tough places ( Florida and Clemson)....however, before those 2 games they had won 6 of its previous 7 games......so. car. is 4-1 ats the last 5 times that they played with 2 or more week's rest in between games....& during that same stretch, they've also gone 4-2 ats when coming off b2b su losses & 12-7 ats when playing against a team with a winning record.....also the so. car. offense is not as bad as the stats indicate because they did outgain 9 of its 1st 10 opponents.....

iowa finished the season very well, winning 3 straight, including upsetting penn. st & trouncing minn....but last season's bowl season had 6 teams close out the year on runs of 5-1 or better.....& all 6 lost su / ats....

i'll take the dog from the better conference....


good luck
 
LDB

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AR182 said:
no problem woodson...but i am due for it to go the other way...

play #19....

so. carolina +4 (120)....

iowa is favored here because it has a slightly better record and looked more impressive at the end of the year.....while the iowa did close the year well, they're 2-8 ats the last 10 times that they were coming off back to back su wins....on the other hand so. car. closed the season with b2b losses......they were both on the road at tough places ( Florida and Clemson)....however, before those 2 games they had won 6 of its previous 7 games......so. car. is 4-1 ats the last 5 times that they played with 2 or more week's rest in between games....& during that same stretch, they've also gone 4-2 ats when coming off b2b su losses & 12-7 ats when playing against a team with a winning record.....also the so. car. offense is not as bad as the stats indicate because they did outgain 9 of its 1st 10 opponents.....

iowa finished the season very well, winning 3 straight, including upsetting penn. st & trouncing minn....but last season's bowl season had 6 teams close out the year on runs of 5-1 or better.....& all 6 lost su / ats....

i'll take the dog from the better conference....


good luck
Click to expand...

ON IT AS WELL BOL AR:toast: :toast:
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys...appreciate it...

boy watching how so. carolina is playing is brutal...hope its not an indication that my luck is changing....

play #20...

vt+3 (120)....

vt has better defensive numbers than cin.....they allow 17.5 points & 277 total yards per game, while cin allows a little over 20 ppg & 315 total yards per game (cin allowed 20 or more points in 4 of their last 5 games this year).....also with beamer as their coach, vt is 34-13 ats in games in which they score 20 or more points as a dog, including 14-3 ats against .850 or greater opposition....

vt also rushes the ball better than cin...they average 168 ypg on the ground, while cin rushes for 121 ypg....& since 1999, vt is 89-8 su when they outrush their opponents...& 9-20 when they are outrushed.....

play against - any team (cin) - good passing team (7.5-8.3 pya) against a poor passing team (5.6-6.4 pya) after 7+ games, in non-conference games.....

since 1992 the situation's ats record is......27-6......81.8%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is.....14-2.....87.5%

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is.....19-3....86%


finally, the acc was 12-3-1 ats as bowl underdogs over the last 5 years & 2-0 in that role this week....



good luck
 
A

AR182

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crashing down to reality today....so far i am 1-2 for the day which brings my bowl record to 10-3...& am pretty sure that i will lose my usc /under teaser which will bring my record to 10-4.....so since i am a believer in cutting my losses when things are not going well, i decided to get off my vt play & try for a middle.....the play now looks like this...

vt+3
cin..ml....

my 2 remaining plays that i am going to keep are....

regular play on the under 71(120) miss / tex tech......& 5*conn-4 (120)....


good luck
 
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