bowl plays & info.....

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
thanks arrow....good health to you & yours for the coming year.....:toast:


got greedy last night & it bit me in the ass.....my first new year's resolution is to stick to the original play & not try to get too cute & go for a middle....i have gone for middles too many times during the season & it cost me money.....

play # 7......

under 48(120) n. ill / la tech.....

n. ill. has the 84th ranked team in total offense nationally.....they are a very good running football team & a lot of that has to do with the mobility of their qb harnish, who thinks run first & has averaged over 50 ypg rushing the ball....his td / int ratio is 7/7 (he missed 3 games)....niu averages about 25 ppg for the year......on defense niu ranks 21st in total defense,59th in rushing defense (4.2 ypc),18th in red zone defense & has allowed about 300 ypg & about 18 ppg....they also held 8 of their last 10 opponents to 16 or less points....

la tech runs the football well & passes the ball very poorly....& their offense is very similar to niu's.....they are 26th in rushing offense at 195 about ypg.....& rank 102nd nationally passing the ball.....they rank 67th in total offense & are 65th in scoring offense at about 25 ppg.....they did score 30+ their last 3 games but that came against the 98, 104 and 106th ranked scoring defenses in the nation.....they do not rank as a great defense statistically (77th in total defense) but they stop the run very well (3 ypc) & rank 11th nationally in rushing defense allowing 99 ypg......they are very poor defending the pass (280 passing ypg) & normally this would be a major concern for me if they were matched up against a pass first team,but not against niu, who's offensive strength is running the football....& for the year la tech allows almost 25 ppg.....

I think this game feautures strength vs strength...these are two football teams are going to try to grind out their yardage & rely on field position.....neither team throws the football very well or have explosive wide receivers.....i think the location of this bowl will help fuel la tech defensively with the crowd getting behind them.....i also think that la tech's offensive numbers are inflated lately due to playing the botom of the barrell defenses in the fbs..... this should be a very hard nosed low scoring football game.......

some trends.....

niu is 15-5 under vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was niu 24.1, opponent 21.3.....

niu is 11-3 under when the total is between 42.5 and 49 over the last 3 seasons.....the average score was niu 20.8, opponent 20.1....

la tech is 6-0 under in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.....the average score was la tech 10.3, opponent 28.3....

a system supporting this play.....

play under - neutral field teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (niu) - average rushing team (140-190 ry/g) against a good rushing defense (100-140 ry/g) after 7+ games.....

the ats record over the last 10 seasons is......26-6.......81.2%........

the average total posted in these games was: 46...

the average score in these games was: team 18.3, opponent 21.3...total points scored = 39.6.....


good luck & happy holidays
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
play #8....

w.virginia....ml....

i looked at this game for quite a while & the only advantage i see that n. carolina has over wv is in the coaching....& that is why i am only making this a regular play...don't like the wv coach at all....

wvu ranks 65th in the nation in total offense...by averaging a little over 350 ypg.....& although they don't pass the ball that much, the wvu qb, pat white is 35th in passing efficiency.......but wvu's bread & butter is running the ball & they are putting up 217 ypg on the ground & are in the top 12 in rushing offense.....

unc is ranked 95th in total offense at 317 ypg.....& eventhough that's not great they do find ways to score & are in the top 30 in the nation in scoring...but much of their scoring ability has been due to the defense making plays and setting up their sporadic offense with some short fields as they have 23 takeaways on the season......but the problem that i think unc will have in this game is that wvu doesn't turn the ball over much as they have only turned the ball over 8 times against the 7 bowll bound teams that they have faced this year....

the wvu defense and special teams have been outstanding this year.....their defense ranks 35th in total defense but their scoring defense has been outstanding as they bend but don't break & allow 15.9 ppg.....

as i stated earlier, the nc defense likes to cause turnovers....& for the year they allow a little over 20 ppg & about 60% completion %....

a system supporting this play.....

play against - any team (unc) - good passing team (7.5-8.3 pya) against a poor passing team (5.6-6.4 pya) after 7+ games, in non-conference games.

since 1992 the record is.......27-5......84.4%....

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is....19-2....90%....


good luck
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
play # 9.....

over 52 wisc / fla.st.....

the perception that some have of these 2 schools seems to go back to the days when they both had very good defenses...but that is not the case for the present teams.....

for the season, wisconsin averages 27.5 ppg, but have averaged 35 ppg over the final 5 games...while fsu averages about 33 ppg for the year....& for the year wisc. allows about 25 ppg...while allowes 22.5 ppg on defense.....both teams can be run on as wisc. allows 4.4 ypc & fsu allows 5.4 ypc on defense....this imo will open it up for better than expected qb play.....

in the past 2 bowl games, the scores for fsu's games have totaled 71 & 63 points scored...& i don't see why this game can't go over 52 points...

play over - neutral field teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (wisconsin) - with an inexperienced qb as starter.

over the last 5 seasons the record is.....38-11.....77.6%

the situation's record this season is.....3-1.....75%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is......18-5....78%


good luck
 

Franky Wright

Registered User
Forum Member
May 28, 2002
3,363
16
0
57
Heaven, oh!!, this isn't it?!
AL,
I just want to say I love your stuff here and we agree on 70-80% of all picks. :)

This last one with Wis/FlaSt over is a real head scratcher for me:0corn I'm on the other side with an under 53*, and I hope we can find that 27-26 game :scared :mj07:

Good luck and continued success this season :toast:

Franky
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
thanks franky....

i'm basically following somebody who is good on totals...he posted it & i researched it & thought that it was worth a shot.....


good luck
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
thanks ld....

knew that i should not have played wvu because they are poorly coached....

play #10....

under 53(120) pitt / oregon st.....

think that both teams will run the ball in this game because osu is 0-4 su / ats when they have been outgained on the ground this year....& 8-0 when they outrush their opponents....& we all know about the pitt running game......so i look for time consuming drives in this game....

play under - all teams where the total is between 49.5 and 56 (osu) - in non-conference games, off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival....

since 1992 the record is......68-33.....67.3%......


good luck....
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
you look good on the under franky....

play #11....

oregon +4 (130)......

oregon averages an astounding 6.88 ypc on the ground this year & that is nearly a yard more per carry than an ok st. team that averages an impressive 256 rushing yards per game...& on defense the edge also belongs to oregon in stopping the run as the ducks held opponents to 3.87 ypc...while ok st allows 4.48 ypc.....

in their final regular season game, oregon beat oregon st 64-38...& ok st lost their last game to okla. 61-41......since 1990 bowl teams that scored 50 or more points in their last game are 7-1 su / ats vs. oppoents that allowed 40 or more points in their last game....

also oregon averages 40 ppg on the road this year.....& pre-new year's day dogs who average 27 or more points are 110-18 ats.....85.9%....while ok st is 6-17 ats as a favorite when allowing over 28 ppg, including 1-18 ats against .600 or greater opponents. like oregon.....

pac-10 bowl dogs are 17-2 ATS since 1997 if matched up against another bcs conference school.......


good luck...
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
play #12....


5*conn.-4 (120).....

imo this matchup strongly favors conn. because i think they will be able to control the ball with their great runner, donald brown who has rushed for over 1800 yds. this year & has scored 17 tds...while the buffalo defense allows 4.6 ypc.....& once buffalo starts bringing up their safeties closer to the line of scrimmage, conn.will be able to throw the ball & even with a qb like lorenzen, conn. should be able to work against a suspect buffalo 2ndary who allows close to 66% completion % & 17 td passes.....for the year buffalo allows 31 ppg.....

on defense, conn. is ranked #19 in the nation in total defense...they allow 47% completion % & 3.5 ypc on the ground & for the year, conn has allowed 18.5 ppg on the road........on the year the buffalo offense is ranked #69 in total offense.....of the 8 buffalo wins this year, 3 came in ot & 4 wins came despite being outgained by their opposition....buffalo was aided by a +15 turnover margin....

play on - any team (conn.) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.....

over the last 10 seasons the ats record is.......42-17......71.2%...


good luck...
 

blaster

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 24, 2004
1,347
11
38
WITH YA ON A LOT OF THESE AR
GOOD LUCK TO US, AND LETS BRING IN THE NEW YEAR WITH A BANG!:mj06:

GL, BLASTER
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
hit the under in tonight's game...brings my bowl record to 5-1....

have the over 51 in tomorrow's first game....

may play something in the 2nd game...believe it or not thinking about the under...but not sure...

good luck
 

Rebel21

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 4, 2002
840
3
0
44
Would u still play the over at 56?

Appreciate your posts, alot of good info!
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
Would u still play the over at 56?

Appreciate your posts, alot of good info!

reb...if you can get it at 56.5...i would buy it down to 56...i personally wouldn't go over 56 but i have seen quality cappers play it at higher numbers..

good luck with whatever you decide...
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
play #13....

over 58 (120) md / nev....

this game is a matchup where the 2 teams offensive strengths are matched up favorably against each team's biggest defensive weakness...the maryland passing attack ranked 2nd in the acc...& although at times the md qb (turner) has been sloppy against some quality bcs defenses, he & wideout, heyward-bey should have a field day in this game since nevada has the worst pass defense in the nation & is allowing >320 pypg....& overall they are ranked #91 in total defense....

on offense nevada has topped 40 pts 7 times this year, ranking 5th in total offense, as well as 2nd in rushing off.....they are led by their qb kaepernick, who has thrown for 2,479 yds & 19 tds (only 5 ints), but who has rushed for 1,115 yds (7.3 ypr) & 16 TDs....on average nevada rushes for 290 ypg at 6.5 ypc....on the road this year, the md defense has allowed 4.6 ypc & 67% completion %....

based on the above numbers, i don't see why this game doesn't get into the 60's....


good luck
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
not impressed with either teams offense in this game...so i took under 28.5 for the 2nd half of the rutgers / nc st game...

so if the teams score over 28 pts in the 2nd half...i will win my over 51 bet but lose my 2nd half bet....& if they score less than 28 i will still split the bets also...& if they score 28 points even i will push on the over 51 bet & win the under 28.5 bet..

so basically it's a wash for me..& the worst that will happen is that i just lose vig....

good luck
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
play #14....

over 57(130) minn / kansas....

neither team can run the ball effectively....both offenses are pass oriented....minn. is led by qb weber who has thrown the ball for 2,585 yds, with a completion % of 62.8%, & a ratio of 14/8....with wr decker his main target......for the year, the minn. offenses averages an incredible 11.5 yards per point.....on the other side of the ball, ku is ranked 94th in defense & allows an incredible 66.5% completion rate.....& allow an even more incredible 39.4 ppg on the road this year....& for the year they yield an awful 12.5 yppt...

on offense, ku is led by an excellent qb....reesing has thrown for 7,053 yds & 61 tds the past 2 years & this year he has completed close to 65% of his passes & averages 346 ypg through the air on the road this year....they have passed for at least 250 yards in 10 of 12 games, & it
would have been 11 of 12 if they had not gone conservative with a huge lead vs. kansas st.....the ku offense averages an excellent 12.7 yppt & average 35 ppg on the road this year....the minn. defense is also generous on defense as they have allowed a 60% completion % on the road this year....they do, however have 30 take-aways this year....

mangino is 6-0 over off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog as the coach of kansas......the average score was kansas 38, opponent 24......

with both teams pass oriented & both teams having very generous pass defenses, i am taking a shot on the over in this game....


good luck
 

AR182

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 9, 2000
18,654
87
0
Scottsdale,AZ
play #15....

georgia-6.5(130)....

1st let me say that i hate laying points in bowl games, which is the reason why i bought a point to get it under 7.....i am also not sure about georgia's motivation for this game but richt is trying to rally his players into believing that this game is not the last game of this season but the first game for next season...if georgia buys it then i don't see this being a close game because msu is too 1 dimensional & rely on 1 player, their back ringer to carry the offense.....ringer (3.5 ypc) has carried the ball an astounding 370 times, which is 344 more carries than their #2 rusher.....their qb barely completed 50% of his passes (finished 2nd lowest in completion % among bcs starting qbs) this year & had as many tds as he had ints (8/8)....his worst performances came against the best competition as he combined to throw 3 ints & 0 tds against ohio st, wisconsin, & penn st....& against these same teams, ringer barely averaged 3 ypc as he was held to 162 yards on 54 carries....meanwhile these 3 same teams ran for over 462 yards of their own on the ground.....on the year, the georgia defense allowed 3.6 ypc & 59% completion %, 334 total yards, & 5.3 ypp....all average numbers....

the georgia offense is led by a pro-football ready qb, matthew stafford, who averages 267 ypg passing the ball, has completed about 61% of his passes with a 22/9 td/int ratio....they also have a great runner in moreno, who averages 111 ypg running the ball at about 4.5 ypc...the msu defense allows 4.9 ypc, 442 total ypg & 6.2 ypp......all poor numbers....

the reason why this a regular play instead of a 5* play is because it's very hard to know whether georgia will be into the game or not....they failed to live up to pre-season expectations but did play 1 of the tougher schedules in college football & if they buy into what the coach is trying to get accross
i think this will be a double digit win...if not then the game will be closer to the number.....


good luck
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top