China stocks

[selkirk]

the market is taking a pound of flesh out of any base metal company. as many feel the US will go into a recession in late 07 early 08.....believe it will be no recession just very slow growth 1-2%, time will tell...

great yield, many base metal companies are starting to have a good dividend....

thanks
selkirk

 

[s_dooley24]

DTB-

Any thoughts on this one?

China TechFaith Wireless Comm Tech, Ltd. CNTF

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Communications in a sector I avoid for most part Dooley--I just can't seem to seperate fact from fiction on these especially in China.
I certainly appreciate anything you can bring to table.

They have earning call sceduled for today I believe--Reuters has good stats on this stock--appears there has been reason fo rstock drop past year per their revenues--but might have rebound but I'm not smart enough nor can get enough valid info to decipher if that is the case--

http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/balanceSheet.asp?symbol=CNTF.O&WTmodLOC=R4-Financials-2-Balance
++++++++++++++++++++++++++
this just out from Seeking alpha a china stock related site--i read this daily but must warn lots of their writers pump the stocks they own--don't take lots of their scoop at face value--but does bring some unknown stocks to light.


http://china.seekingalpha.com/article/44362?source=feed

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

CKISF.PK a china mystery stock of sort had report on their website today--this has been stock with few reports and does not move often--been holding its own in this turmoil will be interesting to see if it moves today with China market taking pretty good hit.

http://www.cki.com.hk/english/PDF_file/announcement/2007/20070816_interim_results.pdf

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Won't use in thread totals but thought I'd make note--will probably be buying wife's position back on ACH as sold all of her shares previously--

Some mining stocks making comeback today and China usually last to follow-I see ACH is down $2 before bell @ $35 which I believe to be bargain--expect it to move upward before bell but if can get @ around $37 will still put it back in her stable.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a couple notes

Guessed one correctly (above) and little wife is smiling as she made bout $15 a share for the week on ACH which closed @ $52 and change Friday---and no I did not have the nads to buy 1/2 stake I sold back
---
on another issue- one of intial stocks purchased in China thread ASD (American Standard) spun off one of their divisions on Aug 1st---

ASD36.23, +0.44, +1.2%) said its board has approved the spinoff of its vehicle control systems business into a new publicly traded firm, Wabco (WBC:wabco hldgs inc com

WBC46.98, +0.32, +0.7%) . For every three American Standard shares held, one Wabco share will be distributed, with cash to shareholders in lieu of fractional shares. The American Standard board of directors also declared a quarterly dividend of 16 cents per share of common stock. American Standard expects its quarterly dividend together with the initial quarterly dividend of Wabco to approximate the 18-cent quarterly dividend paid by American Standard so far this year.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The price of WBC on transition was $49 a share-
ASD paid shareholders in form of div-$15.984

and price of stock was reduced accordingly--

1-Aug-07 38.75 39.13 36.70 37.99 4,681,800 37.99
1-Aug-07 $ 15.984 Dividend
31-Jul-07 55.47 55.68 53.95 54.05 3,134,000 38.07

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Adding one to the group today--1st time in quite a while--
Just finished purchasing AOB @ at $9.6799./share

This company is listed on New York exchange so hope accounting methods are pretty fair.

Comqany is a pharmaceutical company that just completed buyout of small co for 28 mil--however should not cause cash crunch as they have good cash flow and about a 10/1 cash to debt ratio.

here are ket statistics if anyone interested--
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AOB

--also the 17th of this month will be 4 years since start of this thread will try and do complete update on performance by then..

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

--a couple significant notes of interest today on a couple high profile china stocks--


By Ruth Wong

HONG KONG, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N: Quote, Profile, Research) sold more of its stake in top Chinese oil producer PetroChina Inc (0857.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) in late August, selling about US$136 million worth of shares, as it took profits on what has been a lucrative holding.

Berkshire sold 92.66 million shares at an average price of HK$11.473 on August 29, according to a regulatory filing in Hong Kong.

"He's selling into strength," said Dale Tsang, managing director at Imperial Dragon Asset Management. "He's taking his chips off the table slowly. PetroChina isn't a growth story anymore. A lot has been priced in already."

The sale follows Berkshire's disposal of 16.9 million PetroChina (PTR.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares in late July, and cuts its holding of the state-controlled firm's freely tradeable shares to 9.72 percent, or 2.05 billion shares, from 10.16 percent.

Berkshire built up its stake in what has become the world's second most valuable oil company, behind ExxonMobil (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research), in April 2003 at an average price of about HK$1.60 a share, meaning it made a return on the shares it sold of more than 600 percent.

Shares in PetroChina closed at HK$11.36 on Wednesday.

PetroChina's share price has risen about 35 percent over the past year on high oil prices and vigorous Chinese demand, although domestic rivals CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) and Sinopec Corp (0386.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) have seen stock price rises of 56.5 and 76.5 percent over the same period.

Buffett earlier this year rejected a Berkshire shareholder's proposal to sell the PetroChina stake because of its parent's ties to Sudan. That decision also won support at a shareholder's meeting in May.

In another case of a big U.S. investor cashing out of a profitable Chinese investment, top aluminium maker Alcoa Inc (AA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was on Wednesday selling its entire stake in Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) (2600.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) for up to US$2 billion -- a deal that could reap Alcoa a profit of US$1.9 billion. (Additional reporting by Rita Chang)
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note Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) (2600.HK ADR in U.S. is ACH

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Times flys--this week marked 4 year anniversary of this thread--in looking back did pretty decent job of seperating contenders from pretenders on the pink sheet and bullitin board stocks but fell short of maximizing profits by selling most too early.

4 year recap

initials stocks bought

PTR
bought @ $39.79
sold $150.07
currently $167.22

MAPTX A china mutual fund
bought @ 11.42
currently $29.35

Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd (TSGTY.PK)
bought 8.60
sold 2-15-07 @ 18.20
currently $35.75 (ouch)



Denway Motors Ltd (DENMF.PK)
bought .62 split 2-1 making buy in .31
currently .53


China Unicom Ltd (CHU)
bought 8.01
sold 8.55
current $17.64


American Standard Company Inc (ASD)
bought 83.65 - split 3 for one
currently $36.39
-- however lots of changes recently-sold kitchen and bath unit.Bought Wabco(WBC) and distributed one time div of $15.984 per share on Aug 1st which would make actual profit on stock much more.Will probably sell this one shortly.



Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings Ltd (CKISF.PK)
bought 2.12
currently 3.80

stocks purchased later

lngvy.pk bought 6.15 a share
sold @ $8.30 a share
currently-$13.70

ABB LTD bought $12.71
sold $15.95
currently $23.47

stocks purchased this year

CHNG >CHINA NATURAL GAS
purchased @ 3.15
sold 1/2 position 7-24-07 @ $6.40
currently $4.75

Anglo American PLC AAUK.O (indirect play on China-coal processing)
bought @ 27.75
currently $31.75

ALUMINUM CP CHIN ADS (NYSE:ACH
purchased 1-18-07 @ $23.40
sold 1/2 8-4-07 @ $46.97
currently $62.90

AOB purchased 9-6-07 @ $9.68
currently $10.75
Note: Was 1st non div paying stock in portfolio

It should be noted that 4 year anniversary came at most opportune time after big jump in market this week--wish I had taken the sell half keep half when they double on a couple earlier ones--but you live and learn and the pinks sheets can be volitile and hard to get out on free fall.

 

[selkirk]

great results DTB, and it was good selections. time flies, still cannot believe this year is drawing to an end.

been reading a book about great traders, and currently reading about James Rogers.

he tries to pick major moves in a market.

China was growing at 15% (probably ) more when you started this thread. it is still growng 10%, though most "experts" expect a slowdown to 6-8% over the next five years.

also the whole region in Asia, and countries in South America are also growing quickly, 5-10%range.

anyways if China grew so would their demand for base metals and for energy.

I also sold some positions to early, it is hard not to sometimes. I remember couple of years ago TCK, was then around $40cdn. dropped almost 10% in a few days copper was off its highs slightly.

sold half the position. now tck is over 90 cdn. (did 2-1 split $47cdn.)

benefited from the move in resources, however did miss some sectors badly. shippers, the railways did geat but these shippers paid great divs, and just ignored them...afraid of more ships being built.

the demand was so great though.
going forward these markets will probably have better returns than many US, CDN. companies. (unless the US, CND, companies are selling to them), if there is any sell off believe will add to my positions.

note: if I post this many stocks at least 2 would be howling dogs that would have a 20-30% loss. stopped out.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Kirk Maybe we shouldn't beat ourselves up for leavng a few $'s on table.

According to my calculations Warren Buffet lost out on about 5.781 BILLION profit --by selling 140.9 million shares of PTR prematurily.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will sell one of initial stocks purchased in this thread for market price at opening bell--will update results tonight.

Selling ASD (American Standard)

While have sold most stocks too early--this one comes a tad late--Should have sold when they started selling off divisions-- now they are selling off their bath/kitchen business which was premise for purchasing with their contracts with China.
Will see if I can find out who will be the big player now in China in this area--as lots of money to be made--as 90% of Chinese still have primitive plumbing--including many business's.
Maybe DJV a member here will have some input--he is retired from ASD but attends all their meetings--has had some on the money info on org in the past.

"American Standard spun off its vehicle controls business into a separate publicly traded company at the end of July. The company is also selling its global bath and kitchen business to private investment firm Bain Capital Partners LLC for $1.76 billion."
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
sold $35.89
with 3 for split and $15.98 special div and yearly divs--made about 100% profit--however gave up some and should have sold several months ago.

Will miss this stock for sentimental reasons as it got me started on China stocks--can still remember see the American Standard stamp on all the urinals on visits to china

dividend history since purchase
30-Aug-07 $ 0.16 Dividend
1-Aug-07 $ 15.984 Dividend
30-May-07 $ 0.18 Dividend
27-Feb-07 $ 0.18 Dividend
29-Nov-06 $ 0.18 Dividend
30-Aug-06 $ 0.18 Dividend
30-May-06 $ 0.18 Dividend
27-Feb-06 $ 0.18 Dividend
29-Nov-05 $ 0.15 Dividend
30-Aug-05 $ 0.15 Dividend
27-May-05 $ 0.15 Dividend
24-Feb-05 $ 0.15 Dividend
28-May-04 3 : 1 Stock Split
* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Saw this today in Motley Fool on last China stock purchased (9-6-07) AOB--and thought it interesting--the little stock has done well (up bout 28% in 30 days.

The Best Way to Buy Growth
By Tim Hanson October 5, 2007
7
Recommendations
You have to pay up for growth.

That old investing saw helps explain why Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) paid $4.1 billion (or $180 million per SKU) for Glaceau parent Energy Brands, why Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) paid nearly $1.7 billion for YouTube (even when it had its own technology), why Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) paid $6 billion (or 100 times earnings) for aQuantive, and why Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO) have been embroiled in a bidding war for Facebook that may now value the social networking site at $10 billion (reportedly 333 times earnings).

To put that number in perspective, when Yahoo! was looking to buy Facebook for $1 billion last year, many analysts believed it was overbidding.

Our spacious glass house
As much fun as it is to gasp at what big companies are willing to spend to chase returns, it's important to remember that we little guys aren't immune from the same desire (read: greed) to succeed.

According to Yahoo! Finance, for example, the two stocks with the most bullish community sentiment last week were Millennium Cell (Nasdaq: MCEL) and Sonus Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: SNUS) -- two penny stocks that are destroying shareholder value in the hopes of hitting a home run in hydrogen batteries and oncology drugs, respectively.

Will it happen? Probably not. Is $0.69 too much to pay for a company that lost $0.61 per share over the past year? Yes. Should Yahoo! Finance be unwittingly hyping these penny stocks on its main page? Definitely not.

But the reason people are "bullish" on these names is simply because they're hoping the best-case scenario here comes true. Many investors approach the stock market the same way they do a casino: Hoping for one big winner. Hope aside, this is among the surest ways to destroy your investment dollars.

The dangers of growth
That last point is an important point to remember, particularly at a time when most every credible analyst -- including our team at Motley Fool Global Gains -- is extolling the virtues of investing abroad. Because there are two truths about investing in foreign issues that make doing so both necessary and nauseating:

Economies in Asia, Europe, and Latin America are growing at much faster rates than the U.S. economy.
Markets in these countries have been on a tear, and the valuations in many cases look extremely tenuous.
In other words, while you should not be plowing your dollars into Chinese and Indian stocks with reckless abandon, you should be looking closely at companies that can give you the growth these economies have to offer without forcing you to pay a nosebleed multiple.

Welcome to Utopia
American Oriental Bioengineering (NYSE: AOB), for example, sells traditional medicines in China. It boasts a 25% free cash flow margin and a 23% return on equity, and trades for 23 times earnings. While that looks expensive compared with American stocks, it looks a lot cheaper when you consider the company doubled revenue and earnings last year.

That said, there are some real execution and corporate governance risks associated with investing in Chinese stocks generally and in American Oriental Bioengineering specifically. But that's why any research into foreign stocks must be both careful and complete.


Tim Hanson does not own shares of any company mentioned. Microsoft and Coca-Cola are Motley Fool Inside Value recommendations. Yahoo! is a Stock Advisor pick. The Fool's disclosure policy owns LaDainian Tomlinson in its fantasy league and dislikes what Norv Tuner has done to the Chargers.

 

[bishqqq]

my china stock watch list

my china stock watch list

CBAK....XFML...CNTF...ASIA...SDTH...CAAS...QXM...SVA...CYD...CTDC...NINE...HIMX....IMOS...ACTS...VIMC...GRRF...CDS...CFSG.........(CDS was up $3 fri.).............they sure do move.......lol....bish

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

They do move fast--both ways

Am familiar with most of your list--have small position on one (SDTH) though do not have it included here on China portfloio due to extreme volitilty in past (almost 4.8 beta)- unusual for chemical co with solid growth and ROE- decent forward PE 11 and no debt--might buy more and add it to list later if it can show some stabilty over at least 4 quarter period.

If you like following China stocks I have some links I'll cut and past in this thread in morning when I get to office--if you have some you fancy- I would like to see those also.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
some links--
http://www.china-asiastocks.com/Companies/China-AsiaStocks/Stocks_List.asp
http://www.irasia.com/cgi-local/stock/quote.cgi
http://www.china-asiastocks.com/Research/Industries/AsianInvestment.asp
http://www.usxchinaindex.com/
http://www.adr.com/

 

[selkirk]

interesting about valuations on tech companies (the article by Tim Hanson).

Recently Disney bought Club Penguin for 350 million US. and another 350 million over 3 years depending on performance.

Club Penguin charges kids 5.95, and have 12 million unique vistors. they have no advertising and is a place where children go online. developed by 4 young fathers in BC.

probably Disney payed so much because
1. their web sites are not good.....in general..and this team can improve in general the offerings.

2. might be able to promote Disney product to the young...their demo.

3. 12 million visitors and growng is a valuable media tool....now how much they can make on this is the main question.

some do not work out.

Ebay buying SKype, that would only work if seller and buyer could actually use the software to talk over the ebay site.

this never got off the ground which was the only reason to buy it...it also seems a large amount of money to pay for this one feature.

so that did not work out, and looked like a failure from the start. though I believe some do work out..

in the future believe disney will be glad they paid 750 million for penguins.

as for myspace is bigger in the US however in cdn. facebook is far bigger in cdn. and Europe.
it is incredible how many people I know on facebook and would estimate they spend over 2 hours a week maybe more on the site.....:scared

yahoo should have bought facebook when they had the chance for 1 billion would have been worth the gamble. not sure at 5billion +++ .

both are great media properties, has not been proven if they can generate large amounts of value.
still worth the gamble for yahoo. though....


penguins a winner for disney.
ebay should have taken the money blown on skype and given it back to their shareholders.

facebook and myspace valuations are going to grow by 20-30% in the next 3 years....

thanks
selkirk

 

[infinii]

Anyone going to buy Alibaba when it IPO's?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Not for me--not that it won't reap benefits --just can't get feel for these start up stocks especially in this sector--Lots of money to be made and lost--and my conservative nature makes me scared of the later.

Of course can be fooled when you have history to go on and think you made right call and things still don't make sense.

Case in point AOB the last stock purchased here 9-07. While it has had 30% gain for 2 months--I was expecting big bounce up when 3rd Q results came out this week--

Earnings report was MUCH better than I thought and stock decined about a buck. I am absolutely clueless why but still like stock a lot.

Check Edgars 3rd Q report this Monday and someone tell me where there was any weakness--

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/071105/aob10-q.html

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

--a little update amid the world market turmoils of late. The little China fund here has taken hit along with world markets. The tally of all stocks selected in thread(though some have been sold-or have had 1/2 positions sold on profit taking throughout past 4 years) has dropped from high few months back of collective 212% to currently 166%.
Here is cut & paste I track on yahoo and is based on results of 1 share of each stock.

Symbol Trade Price Paid Gain
PTR 184.80 39.79 $145.01 364.44%
MAPTX 30.09 11.42 $18.67 163.49%
TSGTY.PK 30.90 8.60 $22.30 259.30%
DENMF.PK 0.60 0.31 $0.29 93.55%
CHU 18.78 8.01 $10.77 134.46%
ASD 33.99 11.90 $22.09 185.63%
CKISF.PK 4.00 2.12 $1.88 88.68%
LNVGY.PK 16.45 6.15 $10.30 167.48%
ABB 27.15 15.95 $11.20 70.22%
CHNG.OB 7.00 3.15 $3.85 122.22%
AAUK 30.77 27.75 $3.02 10.88%
ACH 51.49 23.40 $28.09 120.04%
AOB 11.35 9.68 $1.67 17.25%
Total (USD): - - $279.14 165.93%

A couple note on some--CKISF.PK is at all time high and DENMF.PK near it--I do not have a clue why either has not taken hit with others--but contemplating selling half of each when they reach 100%.

A couple that have faired the worse

AAUK--came within a wisker of selling on $29.00 stop loss past week. If it does sell will be at top of my list to buy back later--multi dimensional in metals and mining with additional factor of processing coal in China.

CHNG Has dropped bout 50% from all time high but still has over 100% gain on 1/2 of shares retained after profit taking.A lot of the drop has came after 3rd quarter report on 11-14-07.
I saw report and was quite happy but evidentily that wasn't the case for some. Would be curious how others interpret report below. Have had mental fight to keep from buying more but after considering having free ride on current shares that would be letting emotion over ride common sense.

3rd quarter report--
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071114/nyw089.html?.v=101

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Just got in China last night--not a lot has changed with exception many more signs and ads in both Chinese and English.
$ worth less than before so deals not quite as good but prices still cheap.Got best room (business suite) at hotel in nanning for $35 --only bad thing it is on top floor (13th floor)
Have companies I will tour here--a chemical company and beverage company with main area of bottled water.
Will report back with any points of interest.