China stocks

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Returned yesterday--long flight kills me-

a few observations--there are a couple new players in upscale commodes/bath fixtures where ASD last visit had market cornered--

--don't know what to make of this but must have seen 40 huge cranes atop high rises in construction--odd thing less than 10% of them were doing any work entire 10 days there--there were 6 in view from Hotel window that never moved.

another change since last trip is city I stayed at (Nanning) is they no longer issuing motor cycle licenses due to trying curb polution--see a lot of new electric cycles that I never seen before. They are really cool but easy stolen and insurers will not cover them. Tried to find fav brand of folks there but no consensus--if anyone has any lowdown on companies in this area would apprciate headsup.

Brother in law now has 2nd job as part time stock broker--no experience necessary and anyone can be one by taking short test. Amazing even the old people into market there. Was frustating not being able to talk to brother in law more as takes for ever to use translater (wife) and technical terms get lost in translation--however did visit shop where he and others get together. All look at charts on computers (and on their phones) and seem to only care which way market is moving and do "0" research. There was one exception--and older ragged looking guy that was in corner by himself with papers spread all over the place--and no computer. While every one was eager to give this american their fav tip-the old man never gave me a glance. I asked my brother in law if I could speak with him-and he said that he didn't speak much and they refer to him as "the negative one".
That got my interest and after bribing him with gift of pack of american cigarettes he agreed to speak with me if it would be short.I told Li (wife) to ask him for his best piece of advice on China's market. Took about 1/2 hour of back and forth translation till I figured what he was trying to tell me--his advice was when looking at company you need to discount investment income from bottom line as it will not continue at pace market has preformed in past and when figured in can make pig look like pearl.
++++++++++++++++++++++++
oops almost forgot--one company I visited in Nanning China that I was somewhat impressed with and do some research on-

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071120/cntu034.html?.v=4

 

[deportes]

very interesting. thanks

 

[bryanz]

DTB , do you recommend anything right now in china, I was looking to invest in something for about 1 to 5 yrs, with a chance for a nice pop. Thanks.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I hate to recommend anything to anyone Bryanz--
I had securities license through ins company years ago because they paid for it and wanted to get some knowledge in that field--they canceled my license after year because I did not sell one product--the reason I didn't sell any was fear of giving bad advice and losing someones money--and what I learned only enable me to comprehend about 1/10 of what Selkirk has already forgot

--as far as China stocks I have some I'm looking at but will wait till after 1st of year to buy. The stock noted above has some interest-however it has been on decline for some time and has outrageous 50 cent bid diferential from price of stock and unless that changes I ain't biting.

Got a couple I'm looking at of what many refer to as penny stocks--but are similiar only to U.S. penny stocks in price. The ones I'm eyeballing have PE's below 10 and no debt and pay small dividends.
Will post data on them later.

My best advice would be put bulk of investment in core stocks you like- owned by Selkirk and some others--and take smaller stake on inexpensive china positions and hope one really pops.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

1st of all Merry Christmas--wife in China-no children- so spending my holiday in office as usual

07 about ready to come to close and been interesting year and trying to judge 08 is certainly not easy. China has raised interest rates 4 times this year to cool things and appears to be working--the Chinese who have entered the market in droves have seen their 1st prolonged down turn of any substance.

Been reading lots of "guru" outlooks and one thing I don't understand is their allocation of emerging markets as a sector. Somehow my simple thinking only lets me see sectors in sectors not which country they are domiciled in. I believe the next Walmarts-Microsofts ect will come out of these -underveloped markets--

Have a stock to add to China Portfolio--however actually from Taiwan. 1st noticed this stock from bishqqq post above of China stocks on his watchlist.

Name of company is HIMAX TECHNOLOGIES (NasdaqGS:HIMX)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HIMX

The only knock on I see on this company is it opened @ 9 as IPO in 06 and has steadily declined but appears to bottom has leveled out at around $4 over past months.
Only reason I can figure is Taiwan stocks in general do not see a lot of action--and most probably looking for more exciting company. However this company has the "boring" aspects I like--
-0 debt
-continued growth
-low PE (forward PE-around 7)
-low beta
-book value of over 1/2 current stock price
-about 15% owned by insiders
--just authorized 40 million stock buy-back
-and paying 5% div in 2nd year since IPO.
Bought yesterday at 4.10 however will use closing price of 4.25 as buy in price.

 

[selkirk]

best wishes in the new year dtb and everyone else on the board.

the story of the old broker "negative one" reminds me of Reminiscences of a stock operrator. they had a old broker called Rooster (way he walked), they also did not think much of him... turns out he knew and learned some very important rules over the years.

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Doing a little adjusting on 1st day of New Year.

Will sell 1/2 stake in
DENWAY MOTORS LTD (Other OTCENMF.PK)

It was one of initially stocks and gets absolutely 0 exposer anywhere-lots of foreign auto makers in deals with China which shold have some impact on this stock in future and I can't figure if it will be good or bad. However it has increase 109% since puchase so I will play it safe and recoup initial investment and sock the other 1/2 shares away in the free ride nest.

Have another initial stock approaching this scenerio
CHEUNG KONG INFRASTR (Other OTC:CKISF.PK)
which also gets 0 exposure anywhere and was somewhat of mystery stock for while.Have since found sources on them.
This has been a peck peck stock sometimes not moving for weeks at a time. A recent developement is of interest.On 12-10 they purchased a company in UK for 62 Million cash
http://www.cki.com.hk/english/PDF_file/announcement/2007/20071210_greensands.pdf
This comany purchased is into water treatment--which has always been area I have looked to invest in China. Another note of interest- is a small water treatment stock I bought prior (China Water Group Inc.) for 10 cents a share had increased to 35 cents but shortly after CKISK purchase of UK water treat co--dropped back to 10 cents--coincidence--or was it result of CKISK purchase? Whichever I now have 2 plays--
on added note did not make a penny on the China Water Group (10 cent) Stock. Did not sell a share when it was up 300%--reason was small position in it and with its 3.3 PE ratio thought it had lots of upward possibilties.

While on area of missing boat--The one stock noted I liked on return from China on the 14th has increased 95% since then--and I only bought very small portion until I could do further research--too late now I'm afraid:nooo:

further note- on stocked owned in bishqqq's list (SDTH) is up 168% since purchase in Aug
--as noted in tread-never added it to list due to extreme volitilty.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will sell only mutual fund( MAPTX) of China positions at bell this morning--while not the top dog of China Funds per Morningstar has served its purpose well returning 143% over past 4 years.
Reason for sale is fund mamager will be stepping down due to health--might end up being better, but I'm not much on change and will end position.

---Matthews Adjusts Manager Lineup
Four Matthews funds have made modest manager adjustments. Matthews CIO Mark Headley has stepped back from lead roles at Matthews Pacific Tiger (NASDAQ:MAPTX - News), Matthews Asian Technology (NASDAQ:MATFX - News), Matthews China (NASDAQ:MCHFX - News), and Matthews Korea (NASDAQ:MAKOX - News) in order to focus on his health.

 

[bryanz]

Action HIMX : up .58 T0 4.62/4.97 ..... Volume double today. looking good !

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Bryanz Would be satisfied if it finished year at around 6 considering div.Didn't think it would be big mover--but might get boost from recent election--was hoping for more favaorable relations with China and believe now we get it per election results today.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080112/ap_on_re_as/taiwan_election;_ylt=ApQWhfUkoTLBGzEAiWCJ6cQUewgF

By PETER ENAV, Associated Press Writer
5 minutes ago



TAIPEI, Taiwan - Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party won a landslide victory in legislative elections Saturday, dealing a humiliating blow to the government's hardline China policies two months before a presidential poll.

ADVERTISEMENT

President Chen Shui-bian resigned as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party immediately after his party's defeat.

"I should shoulder all responsibilities," Chen said. "I feel really apologetic and shamed."

Chen has been criticized for aggravating relations with Beijing by promoting policies to formalize Taiwan's de facto independence from China. Critics say that has allowed Taiwan's once vibrant economy to lose competitiveness and ratcheted up tension in the perennially edgy Taiwan Strait.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) ? Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party appeared headed to a landslide victory in legislative elections Saturday, dealing a blow to the government's hardline China policies two months before a presidential poll.

The results are a humiliation for President Chen Shui-bian, who has been criticized for aggravating relations with Beijing by promoting policies to formalize Taiwan's de facto independence from China. Critics say that has allowed Taiwan's once vibrant economy to lose competitiveness and ratcheted up tension in the perennially edgy Taiwan Strait.

A March 22 presidential election to choose a successor to Chen, who must step down after eight years in office, pits Frank Hsieh of Chen's Democratic Progressive Party against the Nationalists' Ma Ying-jeou. Recent opinion polls give Ma a 20-point lead.

The Nationalists favor more active engagement with China and do not rule out eventual unification. The DPP wants to formalize the independence Taiwan has had since an inconclusive civil war nearly 60 years ago, but has held off out of fears that China would make good on threats to attack.

With most votes counted, TV station San Li projected the Nationalists would win 82 seats in the 113-seat Legislature, against only 27 for the DPP, with four going to independents. In Taiwan's bitterly partisan media environment, San Li is a strong DPP supporter and offered the most conservative assessment of the Nationalist sweep.

Shelley Rigger, a Taiwan specialist at North Carolina's Davidson College, said it was still possible for Hsieh to win the presidency, but only if he distances himself from Chen, who has grown increasingly unpopular after a series of corruption scandals and a sputtering economy.

"Hsieh needs to pull himself out of the shadow of Chen Shui-bian and run his own campaign," she said. "He needs to convince people that he is different from the rest of the party."

During Chen's two terms as president, the Nationalists used a slender legislative majority to block many of his policy initiatives, including the purchase of a multibillion-dollar package of American weapons. Also left stagnating have been negotiations to open direct air and shipping routes between Taiwan and China.

In the legislative campaign, Ma emphasized his message that Chen's reluctance to engage China inflamed tensions and hurt the island's economy ? one of the 20 largest in the world and a major research and manufacturing base for the computer industry.

Ma also drew attention to American unhappiness with Chen's China policies. Twenty-nine years after it shifted recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the U.S. remains Taiwan's most important foreign partner, supplying it with the means to defend itself against any future Chinese attack.

But Washington has made it clear it finds Chen's China policies dangerous and provocative ? particularly a planned referendum on Taiwanese membership in the United Nations, which appears designed to underscore the island's political separateness from the mainland.

In contrast to Ma, Hsieh maintained a relatively low profile in the legislative campaign, apparently because of his ambivalence over Chen's pro-independence stance.

Hsieh hews to the DPP's pro-independence line in principle, but has made it clear he rejects some of Chen's hard-line policies, including his moves to limit Taiwanese economic ties to the mainland.

He favors of ditching Chen's requirement that Taiwanese companies limit investments in China to less 40 percent of their asset value. He has also indicated a willingness to expand direct charter flights across the Taiwan Strait.

Ma and the Nationalists go considerably farther. They want to remove the asset requirement altogether, and sanction scheduled flights between China and Taiwan.

China's government did not immediately react, but was likely to be comforted by the election results.

"The election will have a positive impact, benefiting stability across the Taiwan Strait," said Yu Keli, head of the Taiwan Studies Institute, a Chinese government-backed think tank in Beijing. "The Taiwanese electorate has delivered a no-confidence vote on Chen Shui-bian."

 

[bryanz]

thanks for the post !

 

[bryanz]

Bryanz Would be satisfied if it finished year at around 6 considering div.Didn't think it would be big mover--but might get boost from recent election--was hoping for more favaorable relations with China and believe now we get it per election results today.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080112/ap_on_re_as/taiwan_election;_ylt=ApQWhfUkoTLBGzEAiWCJ6cQUewgF

By PETER ENAV, Associated Press Writer
5 minutes ago



TAIPEI, Taiwan - Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party won a landslide victory in legislative elections Saturday, dealing a humiliating blow to the government's hardline China policies two months before a presidential poll.

ADVERTISEMENT

President Chen Shui-bian resigned as chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party immediately after his party's defeat.

"I should shoulder all responsibilities," Chen said. "I feel really apologetic and shamed."

Chen has been criticized for aggravating relations with Beijing by promoting policies to formalize Taiwan's de facto independence from China. Critics say that has allowed Taiwan's once vibrant economy to lose competitiveness and ratcheted up tension in the perennially edgy Taiwan Strait.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) ? Taiwan's opposition Nationalist Party appeared headed to a landslide victory in legislative elections Saturday, dealing a blow to the government's hardline China policies two months before a presidential poll.

The results are a humiliation for President Chen Shui-bian, who has been criticized for aggravating relations with Beijing by promoting policies to formalize Taiwan's de facto independence from China. Critics say that has allowed Taiwan's once vibrant economy to lose competitiveness and ratcheted up tension in the perennially edgy Taiwan Strait.

A March 22 presidential election to choose a successor to Chen, who must step down after eight years in office, pits Frank Hsieh of Chen's Democratic Progressive Party against the Nationalists' Ma Ying-jeou. Recent opinion polls give Ma a 20-point lead.

The Nationalists favor more active engagement with China and do not rule out eventual unification. The DPP wants to formalize the independence Taiwan has had since an inconclusive civil war nearly 60 years ago, but has held off out of fears that China would make good on threats to attack.

With most votes counted, TV station San Li projected the Nationalists would win 82 seats in the 113-seat Legislature, against only 27 for the DPP, with four going to independents. In Taiwan's bitterly partisan media environment, San Li is a strong DPP supporter and offered the most conservative assessment of the Nationalist sweep.

Shelley Rigger, a Taiwan specialist at North Carolina's Davidson College, said it was still possible for Hsieh to win the presidency, but only if he distances himself from Chen, who has grown increasingly unpopular after a series of corruption scandals and a sputtering economy.

"Hsieh needs to pull himself out of the shadow of Chen Shui-bian and run his own campaign," she said. "He needs to convince people that he is different from the rest of the party."

During Chen's two terms as president, the Nationalists used a slender legislative majority to block many of his policy initiatives, including the purchase of a multibillion-dollar package of American weapons. Also left stagnating have been negotiations to open direct air and shipping routes between Taiwan and China.

In the legislative campaign, Ma emphasized his message that Chen's reluctance to engage China inflamed tensions and hurt the island's economy ? one of the 20 largest in the world and a major research and manufacturing base for the computer industry.

Ma also drew attention to American unhappiness with Chen's China policies. Twenty-nine years after it shifted recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the U.S. remains Taiwan's most important foreign partner, supplying it with the means to defend itself against any future Chinese attack.

But Washington has made it clear it finds Chen's China policies dangerous and provocative ? particularly a planned referendum on Taiwanese membership in the United Nations, which appears designed to underscore the island's political separateness from the mainland.

In contrast to Ma, Hsieh maintained a relatively low profile in the legislative campaign, apparently because of his ambivalence over Chen's pro-independence stance.

Hsieh hews to the DPP's pro-independence line in principle, but has made it clear he rejects some of Chen's hard-line policies, including his moves to limit Taiwanese economic ties to the mainland.

He favors of ditching Chen's requirement that Taiwanese companies limit investments in China to less 40 percent of their asset value. He has also indicated a willingness to expand direct charter flights across the Taiwan Strait.

Ma and the Nationalists go considerably farther. They want to remove the asset requirement altogether, and sanction scheduled flights between China and Taiwan.

China's government did not immediately react, but was likely to be comforted by the election results.

"The election will have a positive impact, benefiting stability across the Taiwan Strait," said Yu Keli, head of the Taiwan Studies Institute, a Chinese government-backed think tank in Beijing. "The Taiwanese electorate has delivered a no-confidence vote on Chen Shui-bian."

we might get 6.oo per today :0corn

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

CBAK....XFML...CNTF...ASIA...SDTH...CAAS...QXM...SVA...CYD...CTDC...NINE...HIMX....IMOS...ACTS...VIMC...GRRF...CDS...CFSG.........(CDS was up $3 fri.).............they sure do move.......lol....bish

Bish--a little positive news on stock of yours we discussed previously---


ShengdaTech Announces Upgrade Listing to Global Select
Thursday January 31, 8:00 am ET


TAIAN CITY, China, Jan. 31 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- ShengdaTech Inc. ("ShengdaTech" or "The Company") (Nasdaq: SDTH - News) a leading manufacturer of nano precipitated calcium carbonate ("NPCC") and coal-based chemical products in the People's Republic of China ("PRC"), today announced that its application to list its securities on The NASDAQ Global Select Market has been approved effective January 31, 2008.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Had some pretty good news on HIMAX after market close today--up about 7%(34 cents) in after hour trading --Hasn't been a lot of bouncing up or down on this stock during U.S. turbulance--which I like


Himax Reports Fourth Quarter 2007 Results
Wednesday February 13, 4:30 pm ET

* Fourth quarter 2007 revenues increased to $267.1 million -- record
high since inception
* Fourth quarter 2007 gross margin increased to 24.7% -- marks fifth
consecutive quarter of improvement

TAINAN, Taiwan, Feb. 13, 2008 (PRIME NEWSWIRE) -- Himax Technologies, Inc. (``Himax'' or ``Company'') (NasdaqGS:HIMX - News) today reported financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2007.

Net revenues for the fourth quarter of 2007 was $267.1 million, representing 20.9% growth year-over-year and 9.8% growth sequentially.

Gross margin was 24.7% in the fourth quarter of 2007, up 580 basis points year-over-year and 220 basis points sequentially.

Operating margin was 15.9% in the fourth quarter of 2007. Operating income was $42.4 million, up from $22.3 million in the same period last year, and up from $19.9 million in the previous quarter.

Net income for the fourth quarter of 2007 was $46.1 million, up from $31.1 million in the same period last year, and up from $21.8 million in the previous quarter. This represents earnings per diluted share of $0.23, compared to $0.16 in the fourth quarter of 2006, and $0.11 in the third quarter of 2007.

Excluding share-based compensation and acquisition-related charges, non-GAAP operating margin was 16.6% in the fourth quarter of 2007. Non-GAAP operating income was $44.4 million, up from $23.8 million in the same period last year, and up from $36.2 million in the previous quarter.

Non-GAAP net income was $48.1 million, up from $32.6 million in the same period last year, and up from $38.0 million in the previous quarter. This represents earnings per diluted share of $0.24, compared to $0.16 in the fourth quarter of 2006, and $0.19 in the third quarter of 2007.

Share-based compensation was $1.6 million, compared to $1.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2006, and $15.7 million in the third quarter of 2007. Acquisition-related charges were $0.5 million, compared to $18 thousand in the fourth quarter of 2006 and $0.6 million in the third quarter of 2007.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

AOB is one of my fav of positions left
- and has been stagnant despite continued good #'s and even getting lots of exposer now in U.S. finacials-been a real puzzler??

 

[selkirk]

have two profit/share estimates for 2008
HIMX .53/.54

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Thanks Kirk-- much obliged

adding stock today BKEAY or BKEAY.PK on some.
Yep a pink sheet but not your average as it is an ADR on Hong Kong Bank.

Bought at bell @ $5.15 a share.
Price down as their big boy has stepped down after alleged insider trading and also took hit with most other banks. Generally leary of accounting on Asian banks however this one has serveral branches in New York and Califorinia so thinking they have had close scutiny.
Stock pays div of 2.3 % to 3%--depending on whose reporting

Here is link to best site with most data on them I can find--
http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/overview.asp?symbol=BKEAY

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
on a side note while looking more closely at this bank I noticed they offered "super yeild" money markets accounts--I inquired and found them not to be too super


Dear Mr. Hoehn,

Our Bank offers different interest rates for 3 different tiers of
deposits for our Super Yield Money Market Deposit Account.

For daily balances from $1,000 to less than $5,000 -1.51% APY
For daily balances from $5,000 to less than $25,000 -2.53% APY
For daily balances of $25,000 and more - $3.05% APY

However, it is our bank's policy that you have to open an account in
person in any of our branch offices in either LA, San Francisco or New
York City.

Thank you for your interest in opening an account with us.

With best regards,

The Bank of East Asia (USA)N.A.

 

[selkirk]

have found in Cdn. there are a number of good places to park money, in saving accounts.

HSBC Canada (direct) offer investors over 3.5%, no fees for withdrawals, deposits, and free bill payments, ect. there is no min, and can use BMO bank machines and HSBC machines without any fees. also often offer special rates on new deposits, currently 4.75%.

there are a number of entrants that offer over 3.50% Manulife, cdn. Tire, PC financial, ING Direct,

have seen higher rates in the US over 5%, however in most cases (they limit the amount of money, or other conditions.)

thanks
selkirk

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Kirk About 9 months ago my bank called (National City Bank)and offered 5.15 % on money market account--jumped on it--has dropped of course but still 4.8% I believe. 1st time ever I am waiting till April to fund SEP as getting much more at bank than they are giving me in cash positions in brokerage accounts.
Etrade was offering 5.25 about same time but I was a little scared to put it there--was worried with what I had there already.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

interesting news out of Hong Kong today--

Kirk You have any opinions which sectors might profit most--

Hong Kong's financial chief said Wednesday he will cut salary and corporate taxes and abolish duty on beer and wine after a booming economy pushed the city's budget surplus to a record high.
In his maiden budget speech, Financial Secretary John Tsang said he would increase spending on health services and introduce measures to bridge the widening wealth gap and reduce air pollution.

Duty on beer and wine -- currently at 40 percent -- will be cut with immediate effect.

Tsang estimated the budget surplus would reach a record 115.6 billion dollars (14.8 billion US) in the fiscal year to March, four and a half times the government's forecast and nearly twice as much as last year's figure.

The territory's fiscal reserves will reach 484.9 billion dollars, he said.

Tsang attributed the surplus to higher-than-expected tax revenues from the city's booming stock and property markets as well as company profits and salaries.

Tsang fulfilled the government's last year promise to cut salaries tax to 15 percent in 2008-09 from 16 percent and the corporate tax rate to 16.5 percent from 17.5 percent.

He also announced a one-off tax reduction of 75 percent of salaries tax and tax under personal assessment with a ceiling of 25,000 dollars.

Tsang, who took over as financial chief last July, said he was "cautiously optimistic" about the city's economic prospects for 2008, forecasting growth of between four and five percent in 2008/09 with inflation at 4.5 percent.

He said the impact on Asia and Hong Kong of the credit crunch in the United States and Europe had so far been limited, but warned the city could be hit by the resulting global uncertainty.

"We should be aware of the possibility that the situation might deteriorate in the near future and that the fallout may be prolonged," he said, adding he would be cautious about future spending in the face of global economic slowdown and rising inflation.

 

[selkirk]

Hong Kong is an interesting place to invest....way back in 1999/2000 on a cdn. business show, they interviewed for only 10 min, a high ranking official from there...

He came to see how US, and Cdn. cities functioned. always very diplomatic though he mentioned "could not believe how business operated, with the amount of regualtions". Something to that effect, the interviewer then asked did he find many similarities between how business worked in the juridications in Cdn., US, compared to Hong Kong...
his answer was very simple... not to many.

when a country is doing good generally look at sectors, such as a dominant telco, maybe a large congl., or financial.

many countries are having surplusses, and or improving budgets. would like to buy infrastructure stocks.

when countries runs surpluses they usually build and improve their own cities, this makes sense since it helps the cities, regions, to be competitve.

(ie. read a story of how California is losing jobs to other states, and states (US) are now competing for investment.)

well these infrastructure stocks have huge back logs and this will only grow... the only problem is sometimes they (well most) trade at a premium.

hoping some go on sale if there is more of a sell off, however long term these stocks should do quite well.

not sure about asia however the infrasture in cdn. and US must be replaced so money will have to be found.

thanks
selkirk