CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 14

Cowboys (6-6) @ Bears (6-6)? Both teams played on Thanksgiving, had full week to prepare. Dallas lost three of last four games; they have no takeaways in last three (-4 TO?s)- they?re 3-3 SU on road TY, 15-7-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road favorite, 3-2 TY. In their last two games, Cowboys have two TD?s on 21 drives. Three of their last four road games went over. Chicago won its last two games after a 1-5 skid; they?re 3-3 SU at home TY, 9-2-2 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog (0-0 TY). Five of their last six games stayed under. Dallas won last two series games, 41-28/31-17, with last meeting in ?16. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-13 ATS, 1-6 on road; NFC North underdogs are 5-6 ATS, 2-1 at home.

Ravens (10-2) @ Bills (9-3)? Baltimore won its last eight games, covering five of last six; in their last five games, they scored 22 TD?s on 40 drives. In their last three games, Ravens ran ball for 242 yards/game. Buffalo won three in row, six of last eight games; they?ve run ball for 178.7 ypg the last three weeks. Under McDermtt, Bills are 4-5 ATS as a home underdog, 1-0 TY- two of their three losses TY came at home. Four of their last five games stayed under. Home side won last seven Baltimore-Buffalo games; Ravens waxed Bills 47-3 in LY?s season opener- they lost last two trips to western NY, 23-20/19-14, with last visit here in 2013. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-8-1 ATS, 2-1 on road; AFC East underdogs are 10-7-1 ATS,, 5-3 at home.

Redskins (3-9) @ Packers (9-3)? Washington won its last two games after a 1-9 start; they ran ball for 248 yards LW in their upset win at Carolina. Redskins have 8 takeaways (+5) in their last three games, 13 sacks in last two; they?re 14-10 ATS in last 24 games as a road underdog, 3-2 TY. Seven of their last nine games stayed under. Green Bay split its last four games; they?re 24-14-2 ATS in last 40 games as a home favorite, 4-2 TY. Three of their last four games went under. Underdogs covered three of last four series games; Redskins lost last four visits to Lambeau, with 3 of 4 losses by 18+ points. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 8-3 ATS TY; NFC North home favorites are 6-7 ATS.

Broncos (4-8) @ Texans (8-4)? Denver split its last eight games (4-4 ATS) after an 0-4 start; rookie QB Lock got a win in his first NFL start LW, now makes his first road start. Broncos are 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a road underdog, 3-2 TY- three of their last four games went over the total. Houston won six of its last eight games; they converted 12 of last 23 third down plays. Texans are 7-11 ATS in last 18 games as a road favorite, 1-4 TY. Houston allowed 30+ points in three of their four losses. Four of their last five games went under. Favorites covered five of last seven series games; Denver split its last two visits here, wth last one here in ?13. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 8-5 ATS, 5-4 on road; AFC South underdogs are 9-6 ATS, 2-2 at home.

49ers (10-2) @ Saints (10-2)? 49ers split their last four games after an 8-0 start, with both losses by a FG;.under Shanahan- they lost field position by 10+ yards in both losses, Niners are out of first place in NFC West for first time TY; they?re 11-7 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog, 4-0 TY. SF is 4-0 ATS TY in games with spread of 3 or less points. New Orleans won its last three games, scoring 31.3 ppg; they were held to 9 points in both their losses TY. Saints are 10-14 ATS in last 24 games as a home favorite, 2-3 TY. Road team won three of last four series games; 49ers won two of last three visits to Bourbon Street. NFC South non-divisional favorites are 4-7 ATS, 3-6 at home; NFC West underdogs are 12-1 ATS, 10-1 on road.

Bengals (1-11) @ Browns (5-7)? Cincy got first win of the year LW with Dalton back under center; they covered last three games. In their last five games, Bengals were outscored 47-14 in 2nd half; they?re 10-3 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog, 4-1 TY. Under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. This is *************** dot com. Cleveland won three of last four games; they?ve outscored opponents in 2nd half only once in their last eight games (1-5-2). Browns are 2-2-1 ATS TY as a home favorite. Three of their last four games went under. Browns swept Cincy LY, 35-20/26-18, after losing previous six series games. Bengals won four of last five trips to the Dawg Pound. Remember that Browns? defensive star Garrett is suspended for rest of season.

Panthers (5-7) @ Falcons (3-9)? Atlanta (+5.5) picked Allen off four times, stuffed the Panthers 29-3 in Charlotte three weeks ago; Falcons won eight of last ten series games. Carolina lost its last four visits to Atlanta, by 7-12-15-7 points. Carolina lost its last four games overall, giving up 29 ppg; they?ve allowed 12 TD?s on last 42 drives, have converted only 12 of last 43 third down plays. Panthers are 14-8 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog, 3-2 TY; they?re 7-10-1 ATS in last 18 games on artificial turf, 1-0 TY. Six of their last eight games went over. Atlanta gave up 61 points in losing its last two games; they lost their last four home games, are 3-7 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite, 0-2 TY. Five of their last six games stayed under.

Lions (3-8-1) @ Vikings (8-4)? Short week for Minnesota after its Monday night loss in Seattle. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 25-9-1 ATS as a home favorite, 3-2 TY. Vikings (-2.5) won 42-30 in Detroit in Week 7, running ball for 166 yards in game that was 21-all at half. Detroit lost six of last nine series games, but won two of last three visits to the Twin Cities. Vikings split their last four games, despite scoring 27 ppg; they?ve converted 18 of last 26 third down plays. Six of their last seven games went over. This is first road start for rookie 3rd string QB Blough, who was 22-38/259 in LW?s 24-20 home loss to Chicago, his NFL debut. Under Patricia, Lions are 6-4 ATS as a road underdog, 2-2 TY; five of their last seven games went over.

Dolphins (3-9) @ Jets (4-8)? Miami won three of its last five games after an 0-7 start; they covered six of their last eight games, are 3-2 ATS as a road underdog TY. Dolphins allowed 20+ points in first half in each of their last three games, but they play hard for 60:00 and Fitzpatrick has given them a competitive spark. Four of their last five games went over. Jets (-3) lost 26-18 in Miami in Week 9, scoring 10 points on three trips to red zone; Dolphins won six of last seven series games, taking two of last three series games played here. Jets won three of last four games but laid an egg in Cincy LW; they won three of last four home games, are 1-4 ATS in last five games as a home favorite, 0-1 TY. Jets didn?t allow a play of 20+ yards in their last two games.

Colts (6-6) @ Buccaneers (5-7)? Colts lost four of last five games after a 5-2 start; they?re 2-3 SU on road TY, with all five games decided by 6 or fewer points. Under Reich, Indy is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite, 4-0 TY. Veteran K Vinatieri has missed 14 kicks (6 PAT, 8 FG) TY- they gave up a TD on a blocked FG when score was tied with 6:00 left in pivotal loss to Titans LW. Tampa Bay won three of last four games after a 2-6 start; Bucs lost three of their four home games, are 4-16 ATS in last 20 games as a home favorite, 0-3 TY. Indy won three of last four series games; teams split last two meetings played here. AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 10-6 ATS, 8-4 on road; AFC South favorites are 4-7 ATS, 1-1 at home.

Chargers (4-8) @ Jaguars (4-8)? Chargers find weird ways to lose; all eight of their losses are by 7 or fewer points- their last four road games (1-3) were decided by total of nine points. LA turned ball over eight times in their last three games (-6); they?re 1-6 when they allow more than 16 points. Chargers are 2-5 SU away from home, and were favored in 4 of 7 games. Under is 8-3 in their last 11 games. Jaguars lost last four games, allowing 32.3 ppg, with all four losses by 17+ points. Jags are 9- ATS in last 16 games as a home underdog, 1-2 TY. Bolts won six of last seven series games, losing 20-17 (+5.5) in last visit here, two years ago. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-11 ATS, 2-4 on road; AFC South underdogs are 10-6 ATS, 2-2 at home.

Chiefs (8-4) @ Patriots (10-2)? Chiefs scored 71 points in two games vs New England LY but lost both of them, losing AFC title game 37-31 in OT at Arrowhead. Chiefs lost five of last seven visits to Foxboro; underdogs covered last four series games. Chiefs scored 30.5 ppg in winning three of last fur games overall; under Reid, they?re 14-8 ATS as a road underdog (0-0 TY). Over is 3-1-1 in their last five games. New England split its last four games after an 8-2 start; they?re 31-15-3 in last 49 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY. Under is 8-4 in their games this season. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 7-6 ATS, 5-4 on road; AFC East favorites are 8-7 ATS, 5-5 at home. Patriots are behind Baltimore now in race for #1 seed in the AFC.

This report will update....

 

[Cnotes53]

Trends to Watch - December
Marc Lawrence

HOME TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Good): 5-Teams
Carolina 31-20 ATS - Cincinnati 41-25 ATS - Green Bay 37-22 ATS
New England 36-21 ATS - Seattle 41-21 ATS

The Panthers will be home on the odd numbers Sunday's beginning with Washington (12/1), which is winnable. However, games against Seattle (12/15) and New Orleans (12/29) will be harder.

If Miami can beat the Jets (12/1) at home, so can Cincinnati. The Bengals against New England (12/15) will be more challenging. Cincy closes with Cleveland (12/29) having played them three weeks prior.

Green Bay's cold weather edge will be slightly diminished facing cold weather opponents Chicago (12/15) and Washington (12/8).

New England will have an anticipated showdown with Kansas City (12/8), plus, divisional games with Buffalo (12/21) and Miami (12/29).

The Seahawks slate is anything but simple home and away. At CenturyLink Field they have Minnesota on the first Monday of the month and later Arizona (12/22) and San Francisco (12/29).
Keep an eye on (Bad): Cleveland 15-26 ATS - L.A. Rams 22-34 ATS
Cleveland?s trying to fight back and concludes with the Bengals (12/8) in the first of two and two weeks later versus Baltimore (12/29).

The Rams have a rugged road schedule along with home games against the Seahawks (12/8) and Cardinals (12/29).

AWAY TEAMS

Keep an eye on (Bad): 5-Teams
Dallas 26-39 ATS - Houston 15-24 ATS - Miami 21-33 ATS
Oakland 21-39 ATS - San Francisco 23-39 ATS

If the Cowboys blow it like usual on the road at Chicago (12/5) and at Philadelphia (12/22), they might not reach the playoffs.

Off a trio of home contests, Houston hits the road for Tennessee (12/15) and Tampa Bay (12/21), hoping that does screw up their postseason plans.

In a manner of speaking, everything will be new for Miami away from home. (and chilly)
With trips two trips to New Jersey to take on the New York Jets (12/8) and New York Giants (12/15), followed by two weeks later to face New England.

With all three AFC West teams having made one last visit to Oakland, the Raiders will make stops in K.C. (12/1), Carson (12/22) at a Mile High (12/29).

With how improved San Francisco is, one might imagine they would have the same problems of the past. Then you find that the Niners will be unwelcome guests at Baltimore (12/1), at New Orleans (12/8) and at the Seahawks and now it sure looks harder.

FAVORITES

Good: Seattle - 43-21 ATS
The Seahawks are sensational in this role this month, but how often is hard to say with their schedule. For sure Seattle will be the favorite at home against Arizona (12/22) and now versus Minnesota (12/2). However, at the L.A. Rams (12/8) at Carolina (12/15) and home against San Fran (12/29) will be TBD.

Keep an eye on (Good): Green Bay 56-29 ATS
The Packers have been impervious to the cold in December and usually are playing their best football. They will be dishing out the digits at the Giants (12/1) and home against Washington (12/8) and Chicago (12/15). The season finale at Detroit is the only unknown.

Bad: Miami - 24-49 ATS
The Dolphins might have cost themselves the No.1 overall pick in season where the front office did all but everything to lose. Though Miami will play the Jets and Giants, both are in New Jersey, setting up Cincinnati (12/22) as the lone possible favorite role.

Keep an eye on (Bad): 3-Teams
Cleveland 6-11 ATS - Dallas 25-38 ATS
N.Y. Jets 18-28 ATS

Cleveland's season has not turned out as expected and they hope not to make to worse with two games against the Bengals (12/08 and 12/29) and possible as favorite at Arizona (12/15).

Most seasons, the last thing Dallas is clutch and a money-maker this month. They will have two chances not to make it worse against the Rams (12/15) and the Redskins (12/29).

Could the Jets possibly be favored at Cincy (12/1)? Yes, it turned out to be. Otherwise, they'll be smallish home faves with revenge against the Dolphins (12/8).

UNDERDOGS

Keep an eye on (Good): 3-Teams
Carolina 34-19 ATS - Seattle 43-22 ATS
Pittsburgh 20-12 ATS
Both Carolina and Seattle have been outstanding underdogs this month, but what we don't know who will be in what role when they meet in Charlotte on the 15th. Stayed tuned.

The Panthers will be a smaller dog at Indianapolis on the 22nd and we?ll have to wait and see on Atlanta.

The Seahawks might catch a point or two at the Rams (12/8), but not for sure.

Right now, one would presume Pittsburgh will be favored at Arizona (12/8) and Jets (12/22), however, they will be underdogs to close the regular season at Baltimore, unless the Ravens are resting players.

Keep an eye on (Bad): 3-Teams
Chicago 27-42 ATS - L.A. Rams 22-43 ATS
Oakland 27-48 ATS

Chicago has been a bad dog, like one tearing up Christmas packages, late in the season and that could continue. The Bears have Dallas (12/5) at home a week after they played on Thanksgiving. Then 17 days later at Soldier Field versus the Chiefs, plus away battles at the Packers (12/15) and Vikings (12/29).

The Rams sure look like underdogs at Dallas (12/15) and at Frisco (12/21) and as mentioned, their home game with Seattle (12/8) could be a TBD matchup.

Though Oakland is in thick of the playoff chase, they are all but certain to be a division road underdog at Kansas City (12/1), at Carson (12/22) and depending where everything is, maybe at Denver (12/29).

DIVISION

Because we don't want to keep repeating basically the same information over and over for this article, which you have already read about these teams, we are listing their record and who they are playing only.

Keep an eye on (Good):
Carolina 30-19 ATS - @ Atlanta (12/8) and New Orleans (12/29)
New England 35-21 ATS - Buffalo (12/21) and Miami (12/29)

Keep an eye on (Bad):
Cleveland 12-21 ATS - @ Pittsburgh (12/1), Cincinnati (12/8), Baltimore (12/22) and @ Cincinnati (12/29)
Miami 23-39 ATS - @ N.Y. Jets (12/8) and @ New England (12/29)
Oakland 24-37 ATS - @ Kansas City (12/1) @ L.A. Chargers and @ Denver (12/29)

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 14
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Dec. 5

DALLAS at CHICAGO (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Cowboys had covered 4 of last 5 prior to Thanksgiving loss to Bills. Dallas has covered last 3 on road in 2019. Bears just 3-9 vs. spread this season, also ?under? 15-4 since late in 2018.
Tech Edge: ?Under? and slight to Cowboys, based on ?totals? and team trends.



Sunday, Dec. 1

BALTIMORE at BUFFALO (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Ravens have won last 6 SU and covered 7 of last 8 in 2019. Also 7-1 vs. spread last 8 on road. Bills 4-0-1 vs. spread last five TY and 4-0-1 last five as dog since late LY. Buffalo also ?under? 9-3 this season.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?under? and Ravens, based on ?totals? and team trends.


WASHINGTON at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Redskins have actually covered 4 of last 6 TY. Skins also 8-5 ?under? since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to Skins, based on tream trends.


DENVER at HOUSTON (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Broncos 6-2 vs. spread last eight TY. Texans only 2-4 vs. spread last six TY, and 2-4 vs. points at NRG Stadium. Denver on 16-5 ?under? run since mid 2018, Houston ?under? 12-5 at hoem sicne late 2017.
Tech Edge: ?Under? and Broncos, based on ?totals? and recent trends.


SAN FRANCISCO at NEW ORLEANS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Niners 5-1 SU and vs. line on road in 2019, also 4-0 as a dog. Saints no covers last two at Superdome TY, 2-7 last 9 vs. spread as host.
Tech Edge: 49ers, based on recent trends.


CINCINNATI at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Browns have won last 3 SU at home but still just 2-3-1 vs. spread as host this season and 4-7-1 vs. line overall. Bengals actually 4-1 vs. spread as true visitor in 2019 and a shocking 8-1 vs. points last nine in role (not counting London vs. Rams). Bengals have also won and covered last five at Cleveland. Cincy ?under? 11-4-2 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Bengals and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


CAROLINA at ATLANTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Falcons 4-7-1 vs. line TY, 6-13-1 since mid 2018 against spread. Atlanta though has won and covered last four in series including 29-3 win at Charlotte on November 17. Panthers 5-2 vs. line last seven away from home. ?Unders? 5-1 last six in series.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?under,? based on ?totals? trends.trends.


DETROIT at MINNESOTA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Lions broke 6-game spread L streak on Thanksgiving but still no covers last three on road TY, while Vikings no covers last 2 at US Bank Stadium after opening with three wins and covers at home. Minn is 5-0 SU as host TY. Vikings have also won and covered last 4 in series, including win at Ford Field on October 20.
Tech Edge: Vikings, based on series trends.


MIAMI at NY JETS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
J-Men won and covered 3 in a row TY, Cincy 0-4-1 vs. line at home TY, 1-9-1 last 11 vs. spread at Paul Brown, Bengals ?under? 10-4-2 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to Jets and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


INDIANAPOLIS at TAMPA BAY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
If Colts a dog note 6-2 mark last 8 in role. Indy also 7-2 vs. line last 9 away. Bucs only 2-6 vs. spread last eight in 2019, 0-4 vs. spread as host TY. Tampa Bay also on 10-3 ?over? run since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Colts and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


L.A. CHARGERS at JACKSONVILLE (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bolts only 3-9 vs. line TY, also ?under? 15-7 since early 2018. Chargers 2-5 vs. spread away TY after great road marks previous (10-3-2 vs. line reg season outside of LA city limits previous two years). But Jags no covers last 4 or 6 of last 8 TY.
Tech Edge: Chargers and ?under,? based on extended and ?totals? trends.


KANSAS CITY at NEW ENGLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
KC 0-2 SU and 1-1 vs. line against Pats in wild games LY. But Andy Reid 8-2 last 10 as dog (1-1 TY). Belichick 16-5 vs. number last 21 at Gillette Stadium, also ?under? 16-5 last 21 reg season games, though last three ?over? vs. Chiefs since 2017.
Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


PITTSBURGH at ARIZONA (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
If dog, Tomlin 4-2 in roleTY, 8-2 since 2018. Cards 4-2-1 vs. spread last 7 TY, also ?over? 3-1 L4. Steel ?under? 14-5 since late 2018 (8-3 ?under? in 2019).
Tech Edge: Steelers and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


TENNESSEE at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Titans 5-1 SU and vs. line last 5 (since switch to Tannehill at QB), also ?over? last six this season. Raiders no covers last three in 2019. But Oak has won and covered last three ins series (2015-17).
Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.


SEATTLE at L.A. RAMS (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Seahawks 6-0 SU and vs. line on road TY and have covered 5 of last 6 vs. Rams. Last four ?over? in series. Rams 3-8 vs. line last 11 reg season at Coliseum. Last four ?over? in series.
Tech Edge: Seahawks and ?over,? based on team and series trends.



Monday, Dec. 9

N.Y. GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
G-Men 9-3 as road dog since LY. NY has covered last 2 at Linc. Birds 10-20-1 vs. spread in reg season games since late 2017, 3-10 last 13 vs. number at Linc.
Tech Edge: Giants, based on team trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 14 odds: Texans tackling 'letdown' as big favorites
Jason Logan

The Texans entered the 2019 season with the hardest slate of games, as ranked by strength of schedule. So, it?s no surprise that Houston has been a mainstay of this weekly spot bet showcase and makes its fifth appearance in Week 14.

Plenty of times when NFL bettors get hit with a result they didn?t see coming, they instantly wonder, ?What did I miss?? And often, the underlying X-factor in that final score fits the mold of the situational spot.

Letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots are just part of the puzzle when it comes to capping the weekly NFL odds, and sometimes that puzzle piece is bigger than you?d imagine. *********** Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan is a big fan of situational capping and gives his favorite spot bets for the NFL Week 14 odds.


LETDOWN SPOT: DENVER BRONCOS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-9.5, 41.5)

The Texans entered the 2019 season with the hardest slate of games, as ranked by strength of schedule. So, it?s no surprise that Houston has been a mainstay of this weekly spot bet showcase and makes its fifth appearance in Week 14.

The Texans are coming off a huge win over the New England Patriots last Sunday and now take on the Denver Broncos as big home faves. Houston was as big as 10-point chalk but has been bet down as low as -9 with early money recognizing this tricky spot for the Texans. No only is the letdown off the victory over New England possible but Houston could also get caught looking ahead to what is now an important road game in Tennessee next week.

The Broncos are coming off a last-second victory over the Chargers at home in Week 13 and have been raking in the Rocky Mountain money for Denver bettors, covering in six of their previous eight games. Houston, on the other hand, is 2-4 ATS inside NRG Stadium and is 1-6 against the spread in its last seven games following an ATS winner.


LOOKAHEAD SPOT: TENNESSEE TITANS AT OAKLAND RAIDERS (+3, 47.5)

Staying in the AFC South and piggybacking on the Texans' sandwich spot in Week 14, we have red-hot Tennessee traveling across the country to face the Oakland Raiders as a field-goal favorite. The Titans have won three in a row behind a suddenly-sizzling offense, averaging 36 points during this winning streak.

That run has Tennessee back in the divisional hunt and hot on the heels of Houston in the final four games of the season. The Titans, at 7-5 SU, could get caught looking ahead to that Week 15 showdown versus the Texans at home. Oakland has looked terrible the past two games, getting outscored 74-12 in road losses to the Jets and Chiefs, but is back in the Bay Area where the Silver and Black are 4-2 ATS on the season and 7-2 ATS in their last nine homestands.

Tennessee could also find itself dining at the situational sandwich shop this Sunday, chewing back a letdown spot after that huge win at Indianapolis and washing it down with a cool drink of schedule spot, playing in its second straight road game.


SCHEDULE SPOT: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-2.5, 44.5)

The Niners are no doubt blowing through the ice packs and Advil (or stronger) the week following a very physical matchup with the Baltimore Ravens last Sunday (Bonus trend: teams are 4-7 ATS immediately following a game vs. Baltimore this season). San Francisco doesn?t get much time to lick those wounds, traveling to the Big Easy for an important NFC game.

The 49ers opened as 3-point underdogs versus the Saints in Week 14 and early money on San Francisco has moved this spread under the key number to NOLA -2.5. This will the Niners? second straight road game, a situation that hasn?t been historically kind to the franchise: going 5-10 SU and 6-8-1 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games since 2014.

Now, this 2019 edition of the 49ers is much different than past San Fran teams but there?s no denying this sticky schedule spot, which also sees the opponent ? New Orleans ? well rested off a mini bye due to playing (and beating) the Falcons on Thanksgiving Thursday. Sean Payton and his staff were able to sit back and watch that 49ers-Ravens game, giving them extra prep time. New Orleans is a solid 14-8 ATS with the edge in rest since 2010.


******************************


Bet Now/Bet Later NFL Week 14 odds: Chase the Chiefs before this big line move
Jason Logan

The Chiefs' stock is soaring after a big win over Oakland and now early action is dropping Kansas City under the key number in New England this Sunday. Get K.C. +3 while you can.

Being a successful sports bettor is not about betting on the best team but betting the best number.

Scoring the optimal odds for your wager can sometimes be a race to the window ? or your mobile ? to get the spread or total you want before it changes. Or, sometimes it?s a waiting game until just before kickoff, projecting how the public players will manipulate the numbers.

Senior Industry Analyst Jason Logan gives you a heads-up on the best ?Bet Now/Bet Later? games on the NFL Week 14 board.

SPREAD TO BET NOW: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3, 49)

The Chiefs? 2019 stock has never been higher after a thrashing of rival Oakland at home in Week 13. And, the 2019 stock on the Patriots has never been lower, after a losing effort at Houston this past Sunday night. Those contrasting results has the line for this AFC Championship Game rematch trending toward the visitor.

Kansas City opened as high as +3.5 for this trip to Foxborough and that half-point hook didn?t last long, quickly getting bet down to a field goal. Some online markets opened K.C. +3 and action on the Chiefs moved it to +2.5 before buyback on Belichick?s boys pushed it back to three.

As it stands, with those Week 13 results still fresh out of the oven, plenty of books are moving to New England -2.5. So, if you like Kansas City in this revenge spot on the road, take K.C. now at +3. The ?Pats off a loss? trends will make their rounds later in the week (41-16 ATS off a loss since 2003), so if you did miss out on a field goal there?s a slight chance it may pop back up.


SPREAD TO BET LATER: DENVER BRONCOS AT HOUSTON TEXANS (-10, 41.5)

Nothing inflates a number like a win over New England. The Texans are riding high off a very impressive showing versus the Patriots on Sunday night, and that has pushed the opening spread for this matchup with Denver from Houston -8 (set before SNF) to -10.

If you?re not sold on the Texans or are buying into a letdown spot, hold your horses and see if this creeps over the key number of 10. Denver is coming off a last-second win over the Chargers, thanks to a late pass interference call that set up a game-winning field goal. But, the Broncos have a rookie QB at the helm in Drew Lock, who makes his first road start in NRG Stadium this Sunday.

Denver has been one of the sneaky-good bets in the second half of the schedule, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight outings. The Texans have been a bad bet at home (2-5 ATS last seven at home) and are inconsistent in their efforts, with a 1-6 ATS record in their last seven when covering the spread the game before.


TOTAL TO BET NOW: UNDER 43 DALLAS COWBOYS AT CHICAGO BEARS

If you?re planning on an uneventful Thursday night matchup between the Boys and Bears, you may want to get down on the Under now. The total for the mid-week showcase opened as high as 44 and has been chopped down a full point and likely will keep ticking down before kickoff.

The Cowboys are coming off an embarrassing effort versus the Bills at home on Thanksgiving, scoring just 15 points a week after being limited to only nine in a bad-weather game at New England. Dallas comes to Chicago, where game-time temperatures will hover around freezing and winds could reach gusts of up to 20 mph. Star receiver Amari Cooper is nursing a knee injury and there are also rumblings that he?s planning to bolt from Dallas this offseason. Hmmm?

Chicago, on the other hand, is THE Under team in the NFL. Save for a sudden outpouring from the Lions? third-string QB on Thanksgiving, the Bears have played Under the total in eight of their dozen games this season, including a 1-5 O/U mark inside Soldier Field. The defense is especially stingy in the Windy City, allowing only 16 points against on home soil.


TOTAL TO BET LATER: OVER 43 PITTSBURGH STEELERS AT ARIZONA CARDINALS

A lone touchdown from Kyler Murray was all Arizona could muster in a blowout loss to Los Angeles in Week 13. That awful offensive effort is skewing the total for Week 14?s home date with the Steelers and should have fans of the Over pushing pause on their action until this number dips lower.

The total for Sunday opened at 43.5 and is starting to dwindle with money coming in on the Under, sitting at 43 points at some books. Pittsburgh isn?t lighting up the scoreboard by any means, but the offense looks a little more dangerous with ?Duck? Hodges under center and the Cardinals ?stop unit? is that in name only: giving up scores of 30, 36 and 34 in its last three games.

The Cardinals offense is much better than whatever that was in Week 13, averaging almost 23 points per game since Week 5. Pittsburgh's defense is playing well - giving up just 18.8 points per contest on the season - but has benefited from a home-friendly stretch, that saw the Steelers in Heinz Field in four of their last six outings. Arizona has gone Over the total in four of its six homestands and won?t need much from either team to top this total, especially after it drops lower throughout the week.


*******************************


NFL Betting Stats heading into Week 14:

Road Teams: 106-83-4 ATS
Home Teams: 83-106-4 ATS

Favorites: 84-105-4 ATS
Underdogs: 105-84-4 ATS

Home Faves: 48-70-4 ATS
Home Dogs: 35-36 ATS

Road Faves: 36-35 ATS
Road Dogs: 70-48-4 ATS

O/U: 93-100

 

[Cnotes53]

Panthers fire head coach Ron Rivera
December 3, 2019
By The Associated Press

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) The Ron Rivera era has come to an abrupt end in Carolina.

The Panthers fired their all-time winningest head coach with the team on a four-game losing streak and headed to its third non-playoff season in four years.

''I believe this is the best decision for the long-term success of our team,'' Panthers owner David Tepper said in a statement Tuesday. ''I have a great deal of respect for Ron and the contributions he has made to this franchise and to this community.''

Secondary coach Perry Fewell was been named interim head coach.

Offensive coordinator Norv Turner will transition to special assistant to the head coach, and quarterbacks coach Scott Turner will serve as offensive coordinator.

Tepper said he will begin a search for a new coach immediately.

Rivera was hired in 2011 and was 76-63-1 in the regular season and a 3-4 postseason mark. In nine seasons Rivera guided the team to a Super Bowl appearance, an NFC championship and three NFC South titles.

But the Panthers have fallen on hard times lately following injuries to quarterback Cam Newton the past two seasons.

The Panthers are 5-7 this season and are all but eliminated from playoff contention after a 29-21 loss to the Washington Redskins on Sunday at home.

When asked if he was worried about his future with the team on Sunday after his team surrendered a 14-0 lead to the Redskins, Rivera replied, ''I'm not worried about my future. I'm worried about this football team. We have a game coming up on Sunday'' at Atlanta.

They started this season 5-3. Last year the team was 6-2 but lost seven straight games and finished 7-9.

Since losing to the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50 four seasons ago, the Panthers are 29-31 and have not won a playoff game.

Rivera, 57, did not immediately return phone calls seeking comment from The Associated Press.

Rivera's firing might not be the only change coming.

Tepper, who bought the team in 2018, said long-term mediocrity is not an option for the Panthers.

''We are going to take a comprehensive and thorough review of our football operation to make sure we are structured for long-term sustained success,'' Tepper said. ''Our vision is to find the right mix of old-school discipline and toughness with modern and innovative processes. We will consider a wide range of football executives to complement our current football staff.''

Tepper said the team will hire an assistant general manager and vice president of football operations.

''We all must recognize that this is the first step in a process, but we are committed to building and maintaining a championship culture for our team and our fans,'' Tepper said.

Rivera was extremely well liked in the Panthers locker room, and he easily related to players having played nine seasons in the NFL for the Chicago Bears, winning a Super Bowl with Jim McMahon, Walter Payton and others in 1985.

Rivera is a two-time NFL Coach of the Year and likely won't have a problem landing a job next season.

As for what the move means for Newton remains to be seen given that Tepper has shown he's not afraid to make big changes.

The legacies of Rivera and Newton have always been intertwined as both came to the Panthers in 2011. Newton is coming off shoulder and foot injuries and the team could save $19 million under the salary cap if they release or trade him after the season.

Kyle Allen has filled in for Newton this season at quarterback and is 5-5 as a starter.

 

[Cnotes53]

McManus furious he didn't get chance
December 3, 2019
By The Associated Press

DENVER (AP) Brandon McManus looked up and saw the bright orange streamers atop the goal posts hugging the yellow uprights in the north end zone. Perfect, he thought. No wind. Thirty degrees. One second before halftime.

This was the moment he'd waited for, a shot at history.

As he mapped out his steps for the 65-yard field goal attempt and a chance to break former teammate Matt Prater's NFL record of 64 yards set six years earlier, he heard hollering from his sideline.

Coach Vic Fangio had changed his mind.

McManus was being summoned off the field.

Furious, McManus stormed back to the bench, ripping off his helmet as he reached the sideline and throwing it on the ground, not usually something a kicker does when his head coach makes a call he doesn't like.

The offense went back out and when Denver was whistled for a delay, backing the Broncos to their own 48, a Hail Mary by rookie quarterback Drew Lock was no longer going to happen. Instead, he threw a 33-yard pass over the middle to Courtland Sutton, who was tackled at the 20.

When McManus returned to the field just before the start of the second half, he lined up at his 45-yard line and nailed a practice 65-yarder just like he knew he would have had Fangio not folded 10 minutes earlier when Chargers return man Desmond King II lined up deep in case McManus' kick was short.

''I knew I could make it, they've seen me make it in practice and we're right at the line that I gave him,'' said McManus, who was good from 31, 52 and 53 yards Sunday, his last one clearing the uprights with no time left for a 23-20 Denver win.

Fangio said he decided against the 65-yard attempt because ''at that point I didn't think it was desperation.''

Besides, he said, ''I've seen many times where guys go out there and try extra-long kicks. They alter the mechanics and it affects him the rest of the game. I'm going to say that that decision not to let him go out there for the 65-yarder led him to making the 52 and the 53-yarder.''

McManus scoffed at the notion his extra oomph he would have had to use to clear the crossbar from that distance would have affected subsequent, shorter kicks.

''Does a Hail Mary change the way a quarterback throws the ball?'' he asked.

Studies have shown a 65-yard field goal would require a foot speed of around 50 mph to generate enough power, plus hitting the sweet spot of the football about 2+ inches off the ground for an ideal launch angle of about 43 degrees to account for drag of a football flipping end over end.

Oh, and the margin for error from that distance is less than 6 degrees.

McManus might never find better conditions for an attempt at the record, but he'll have to have his coach willing to go through with it.

''I think we're two grown men and we understand the ebbs and flows of the game. He hasn't been here that long to see my total range in training camp over the years,'' McManus said of his first-year head coach.

His halftime practice kick was a message to his coach.

''Of course it is. Like I said, I know I can make the kick, and this is a storied game that I grew up watching. It was a dream of mine to play in this league and if I was able to have my name badge on the longest field goal in NFL history, I would love that,'' McManus said. ''That's why I would have loved to kick that attempt.''

McManus, however, hasn't been money like he was in the playoffs in 2015, when he set an NFL record by making all 10 of his field goal attempts on the Broncos' Super Bowl 50 championship run.

He had a streak of seven straight misses from 50-plus yards before making a 53-yarder against the Titans in Week 6, and he kicked the ground on an errant 43-yarder at Minnesota three weeks ago that played a crucial role in Denver's 27-23 loss to the Vikings.

On Sunday, he nailed his 52- and 53-yarder, the game-winner coming after he bounced a kick off the right upright and through the goal posts after Chargers coach Anthony Lynn called timeout to ice him.

''I don't think I've ever made one off the upright in my career in my six years, but any time it goes through, you're feeling confident about it,'' McManus said.

McManus explained that he, long-snapper Casey Kreiter and holder Colby Wadman have worked all season on going through with kicks when whistles are blown at the last split-second like Sunday so the ice-the-kicker strategy actually allows him to see what the conditions are like.

''I want a practice kick regardless of what happens because I want to see if the wind is moving it or if I miss it. I know I'm not going to miss the second one if I make it,'' McManus said. ''I obviously feel confident about the kick.''

So, are McManus and Fangio good?

''Yeah, 100 percent,'' McManus said. ''Kicking is a completely mental game. You battle the struggles, the ebbs and flow of it, you know, head coaching, we deal with a lot of the same scrutiny. He has to make decisions and I have to make pressured kicks. At the end of the day, I'm mad because I didn't get to kick, and in his mind, he made the right decision for the team.

''I have no problem with that, but like I said, I would love to have my name in the history books.''

 

[Cnotes53]

By: Josh Inglis

SHADING THE MVP

The Buffalo Bills' hype-train is chugging along after a convincing win in Dallas with the country watching in Week 13. But things will get much more difficult this week with the Baltimore Ravens traveling to New Era Field.

This game will feature the first and fourth-best rushing quarterbacks (rush yards/game) in Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Jackson is nearly impossible to game plan against because no teams can mimic Jackson in practice - except the Bills.

The Bills defense is used to practicing against a mobile QB and if any team in the league is prepared to slow down Jackson, the Bills stand the best chance. The same can be said with Allen as he will see a defense that faces an elite QB rushing talent in practice every week.

We think there?s a chance that the Allen and Jackson (not to be confused with the rugged country singer) rushing markets could be overvalued with all the attention they have been getting after Week 13. We are going to fade both dual-threat quarterbacks, taking the Under on Jackson?s rushing total of 75.5 yards and the Under on Allen?s on 39.5 yards.


DUCK DYNASTY

The Arizona Cardinals may be 4-1-1 ATS at home this year but their opponents have enjoyed success on the offensive side of the ball in the desert. The Cardinals are giving up the second-most TDs at home (3.8) and have allowed their opponents to score 30 or more points in four straight weeks. Even the L.A. Rams scored 34 points versus Arizona last week after averaging just 11.6 points a game from Weeks 10 through 12.

The Pittsburgh Steelers under Devlin Hodges have scored in seven of their last 16 drives and are putting up 5.5 points a quarter. Not incredible numbers but facing the league?s 28th-ranked red-zone defense will make things easier. Getting center James Pouncey back from suspension certainly helps and if James Connor can suit up, the Steelers have a good chance at eclipsing their team total, even if JuJu Smith-Schuster is out.

We?re riding the Over on the Steelers? total of 22.5 and are waiting for TE Vance MacDonald?s prop market to open as he faces the league?s worst TE-defending team.


PRIMETIME SIX-POINT TEASER TIME

Dallas (+3) is lucky it plays in the worst division in football this year. Nobody wants to win the NFC East but Dallas may have more motivation after getting shown up on Thanksgiving and Jerry Jones basically saying Jason Garrett will not be back next year. Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears are also due for a dud. Cowboys +3

The Rams decided to run up the score last week which hopefully gives that offense and their full slate of receivers some confidence ahead of their matchup versus the Seahawks. Seattle sits sixth in points per play while its defense is allowing 24.4 average points against. Take the Over 42.

Over their last three games, the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants are averaging 52 points combined. The Giants offense will be forced to put up some points on Monday night as their defense is allowing the second-most points on the road. New York is also 5-1 O/U on totals of 41 or higher over its last six games. Take the Over 41.


FIRST-HALF CIRCUIT BAKER

The Cincinnati Bengals have the 31st DVOA first-half defense and are giving up 14.3 first-half points on the road this year. The Bengals have won their last two first halves against the Steelers and the Jets and this week may be a great time to fade Cincy in the first half as it recovers from a victory hangover.

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield will be good to go for Sunday and feasted on the Bengals last year. In his two games against Cincy, the former No.1 pick has thrown for seven TDs and completed 73 percent of his passes.

Cleveland will take out its frustrations on its division rivals. Take the Browns first-half spread of -4.


TOM TERRIBLE

Kansas City?s defense is amped up to play the Patriots and their anemic offense. We won?t put all the blame on Brady as that receiving corps has been a revolving door this year and there?s a serious lack of experience outside of Julian Edelman.

The Chiefs have six interceptions over their last two games and if Patrick Mahomes and the offense get up in New England, they will force Brady to pass - something the 42-year-old QB hasn?t been very good at. Brady is just 17th in QBR, between Ryan Tannehill and Jameis Winston.

Brady has only one interception at home this year but threw eight at Gillette Stadium last season. Aided by the eye test, we are putting our money on the Over 0.5 INTs for Tom Terrific.


**************************


NFL's Top Over Teams:

1. Buccaneers 9-3 O/U
t2. Panthers 8-4 O/U
t2. Lions 8-4 O/U
t4. Seahawks, Ravens, Vikings, Chiefs, Titans, Cowboys, Colts, Cardinals, and Giants tied at 7-5 O/U


NFL's Top Under Teams:

t1. Bills 9-3 U/O
t1. Steelers 9-3 U/O
3. Bengals 8-3-1 U/O
t4. Patriots 8-4 U/O
t4. Rams 8-4 U/O
t4. Bears100 8-4 U/O
t4. Chargers 8-4 U/O
t4. Falcons 8-4 U/O

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Josh Inglis


LORD OF THE VANCE

Los Angeles Rams TE Tyler Higbee hit the prop trifecta against the Arizona Cardinals and their league-worst tight end defense last week. Higbee hit the Over on both his receptions and yards while also hitting paydirt. If you have been playing TEs versus the Cardinals all year then you are probably doing your best Scrooge McDuck impersonation these days.

In the Cardinals' 12 games this year, TEs have hit the trifecta (receptions, yards and a TD) five times. But that?s just the tip of the iceberg. Tight ends have gone Over their reception totals in 10 games, Over in their receiving yards in nine games and have scored a touchdown in nine of 12 games. That smells like winning to me.

Pittsburgh TE Vance McDonald is next in line for the ride as the Steelers travel to Arizona. McDonald?s totals sit at 3.5 receptions and 33.5 yards. You know what to do, and don?t forget the TD for good measure.


TURDISKY TIME ON THURSDAY

TNF will bring us the Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears. The Bears are winners of three of their last four thanks in part to playing QBs David Blough, Daniel Jones, Jared Goff and Jeff Driskel over that stretch.

Mitchell Trubisky and the offense have looked decent lately but are scoring just 16.7 points over their last three games ? sixth-worst mark in the league. Home field isn?t much of an advantage either for Mitch and the boys as the Bears are 31st in points scored while converting just 25 percent of third downs at Soldier Field.

Dallas has a great defense on the road, giving up the fourth-fewest yards and allowing just 31 percent of third downs to be converted. Mitch is due for a turd as he hasn?t posted back-to-back QB ratings of over 100 this year. Hit the Under on the Bears? team total of 19.5 (+100) or wait for it to go through the key number of 20 to 20.5.


SLICE AND DICE WITH GUICE

Since being drafted in the second round of the 2018 draft, Washington running back Derrius Guice has played just four games. Last week, the 22-year-old back topped 100 yards on just 10 carries against the worst DVOA rush defense. Expectations should be tempered as Guice faces a lot of competition for snaps as Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson saw 72 percent of the snaps while Guice saw 30.

This week the Redskins play against the Green Bay Packers who have a bottom-five rush defense sandwiched between 27th-ranked Cincinnati and 29th Miami. Not great company. Green Bay is also tied for the fourth-most rushing TDs allowed at home at 1.2 which might benefit Guice as the young back has received eight red-zone carries over the last three weeks while Peterson has seen just three.

Guice is a hot name this week so beware of his rushing total of 50.5 yards. The real worth could be on his anytime rushing TD which could fetch backers some good plus-money.


KING HENRY

Derrick Henry has started his assault on defenses a little earlier this year. In 2018, Henry averaged 146 yards rushing and 1.75 rushing TDs over the final four weeks while this year the ?Bama back has 496 yards in his last three weeks. Henry has actually been quite consistent all year as the Titans? RB has been held to under 70 yards rushing just twice since Week 4.

This week the Titans take on Oakland. The Raiders are coming off two weeks of football that saw them get outscored 74-12 and they might be waving the white flag at the worst possible time. Oakland hasn?t been giving up huge games to opposing backs, but it has allowed five rushing TDs in its last three and gave up 6.12 yards per carry over Weeks 10 and 11 combined.

With the Titans running the ball around 30 times a game, we could see another big game out of Tennessee's big back. We are doubling down on Henry and taking the Over 98.5 rushing yards and his anytime TD.


BUCS BAD BACKFIELD

Last week, we pushed Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones but he flopped. Jones missed a blitz pickup in the first quarter and was subsequently benched for a brief time. The starter watched teammate Peyton Barber take 17 carries for 44 yards and two scores in the Bucs? 28-11 win over the Jaguars. We picked a bad week to play Jones? TD prop.

This week, head coach Bruce Arians has said that Jones is still his starter for the Bucs game against the Colts, but we aren?t sure we believe him. Tampa only averages 3.7 yards per carry this year which is tied for seventh-worse while Jones is gaining just 3.56 yards per carry on his 11.6 touches per game.

Looking at this backfield's rushing totals, we see more value in Jones? 44.5 than Barber?s 40.5 and will be taking the Under on the former as the Colts are allowing just 97 yards rushing in their last three games. Take Jones? Under 44.5 rushing yards.

 

[Cnotes53]

TNF - Cowboys at Bears
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

Both these teams played on Thanksgiving with mixed results. Starting with the Cowboys (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS), it was an embarrassing Turkey Day home loss to the upstart Bills in a 26-15 setback as 6 ?-point favorites. Dallas jumped out to a quick 7-0 lead on a Dak Prescott touchdown strike to tight end Jason Witten, but the Cowboys wouldn?t score again until four minutes remaining in regulation.

In between, the Bills ran off 26 consecutive points, as Dallas turned the ball over twice. Prescott ended the day with 355 yards passing, but it was the second time this season that the Dallas quarterback posted gaudy numbers in a home blowout loss (463 yards against Packers). Running back Ezekiel Elliott carried the ball only 12 times, tied for his fewest all season, but racked up 71 yards which came to an average of 5.9 yards an attempt.

The Bears (6-6 SU, 3-9 ATS) erased a 17-7 deficit at rival Detroit last Thursday to knock off the Lions, 24-20. Chicago closed as a 5 ?-point road favorite, marking its seventh ATS loss in the past eight games, but the Bears are back at .500 since owning a 3-3 record in Week 7. Bears? quarterback Mitchell Trubisky put together his best game of the season by throwing for 338 yards and three touchdowns, including the go-ahead score to David Montgomery with 2:17 remaining in regulation.

In spite of Chicago?s modest two-game winning streak, the Bears remain three games behind the Packers for the top spot in the NFC North and two games back of the Vikings for the second NFC Wild Card position. The 24 points scored at Detroit marked the most posted by the Bears since putting up 25 in a home loss to New Orleans back in Week 7. The defense allowed at least 20 points for the first time in four games, ending a five-game streak to the ?over.?

YOU DON?T SCORE UNTIL YOU SCORE

The Cowboys? formula for winning this season has been very simple. When Dallas scores 31 points or more, it has a perfect 6-0 mark. On the flip side, Jason Garrett?s squad has compiled an ugly 0-6 record when being held to 30 points or less. The last two weeks have been especially forgettable offensively as Dallas combined for only 24 points against a pair of solid defenses in New England and Buffalo. The last time the Cowboys won a game when scoring fewer than 30 points was their Wild Card victory over the Seahawks this past January, 24-22.

PROTECT THIS HOUSE

The Bears have played six games at Soldier Field this season and have allowed more than 17 points only once, which came in a Week 7 defeat at New Orleans when they yielded 36 points. Chicago has given up 10, 6, 17, 13, and 14 in the other five home contests, while opponents have posted more than 20 points only once in the past 10 games at Soldier Field, which includes the 16-15 playoff loss to Philadelphia. The ?under? has cashed in eight of the last 10 home contests for Chicago, as the Bears have scored at least 21 points only once in six home games in 2019.

DOGGIN? IT

For only the third time this season, the Bears are listed in the underdog role. The first two times didn?t work out well for Chicago by losing at Philadelphia, 22-14 in Week 9 and dropping a 17-7 decision to the Rams in Week 11. The last time the Bears closed as an underdog at Soldier Field came last December in a 15-6 win over Los Angeles when they received three points. ?Dogs have posted a solid 9-4 ATS record on Thursday night action this season, while only two home underdogs have won and covered on Thursdays (Jaguars ? Week 3 and Raiders ? Week 10).

SERIES HISTORY

These NFC squads last met in 2016 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington as the Cowboys took care of the Bears, 31-17 as 6 ?-point favorites. Dallas is making its first trip to the Windy City since 2014 (also a Thursday night game) when the Cowboys held off a furious Bears? rally in a 41-28 victory as four-point favorites. The Cowboys built a commanding 35-7 lead before Chicago scored three touchdowns in the fourth quarter to make the final score look better.

TOTAL TALK

Oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 44 and the number is listed at 42 ? as of Wednesday evening.

Chris David offered up his thoughts on this week?s number.

He said, ?This game could be looked at as a bit of a head-scratcher based on the total results for both clubs. The Cowboys have watched the ?over? go 7-5 this season and that includes a 4-2 mark on the road. Meanwhile, the Bears have been a great ?under? bet at 8-4 and only one of six games played at Soldier Field went ?over? this season and that outcome was helped with a big second-half scoring surge when the Saints visited back in Week 7.?

?Chicago is the perfect mold of an ?under? team, solid defense and inconsistent offense and that trend has been golden for bettors riding the low side -- especially at home too. The ?under? is on an 8-1 run in the last nine home games for the Bears and only one team scored more than 17 points, which came in the aforementioned effort against New Orleans (36-25).?

While those seasonal trends and tendencies could have many bettors placing ?under? wagers on Thursday, David points out a total angle that?s correlated to Dallas.

He explained, ?The drama always follows Dallas in the NFL and this season is no different. After last week?s loss on Thanksgiving to Buffalo, it?s hard to have any confidence in the Cowboys but if you believe they?re going to right the ship then you would a better offensive effort. Dallas sits at 6-5 on the season and it has averaged 34.3 in the six wins and the ?over? has gone 4-2 in those games. If you go back even further, the Cowboys have scored 20-plus points in 16 of their last 17 wins. Bottom line, the Cowboys win when they score. The Dallas team total is hovering between 22 and 23 for Thursday and since I believe the ?Boys rebound, my lean would be to the Cowboys Team Total Over.?

HANDICAPPER?S CORNER

NFL expert Joe Nelson checks in to figure out what has gone wrong with the Cowboys, ?Dallas has out-gained 11 of 12 foes this season with the only deficit just -9 at New Orleans. Turnovers can?t account for all the problems at just -4 in turnover margin on the season though the Dallas defense has forced zero turnovers in the past four games for a -5 run in that 1-3 stretch. Chicago is +3 in turnovers on the season, but an offense with a rushing identity has been out-gained on the ground in seven of the past eight games even with a run defense that has allowed 97 yards per game on 3.7 yards per carry this season.?

PLAYER PROPS ? According to Westgate Superbook

Total Gross Passing Yards ? Dak Prescott (DAL)
Over 276 ? (-110)
Under 276 ? (-110)

Total Touchdown Passes ? Dak Prescott (DAL)
Over 1 ? (-120)
Under 1 ? (Even)

Will Dak Prescott (DAL) throw an interception?
Yes -130
No +110

Total Rushing Yards ? Ezekiel Elliott (DAL)
Over 81 ? (-110)
Under 81 ? (-110)

Will Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) score a touchdown?
Yes -130
No +110

Total Completions ? Mitchell Trubisky (CHI)
Over 22 ? (-110)
Under 22 ? (-110)

Total Rushing Yards ? David Montgomery (CHI)
Over 55 ? (-110)
Under 55 ? (-110)

Total Receiving Yards ? Anthony Miller (CHI)
Over 53 ? (-110)
Under 53 ? (-110)

LINE MOVEMENT

This line has stayed steady this week with the Cowboys as three-point road favorites. The total hasn?t seen much movement as it sits at 43 ? at most books.

 

[Cnotes53]

Micthell Trubisky helps Bears beat Cowboys 31-24
December 5, 2019

CHICAGO (AP) Mitchell Trubisky and the Chicago Bears appear to be hitting their stride even if it might be too late to salvage their season.

Trubisky threw three touchdown passes and ran for a score in Chicago's 31-24 victory over Dak Prescott and the slumping Dallas Cowboys on Thursday night.

In a matchup between disappointing teams that made the playoffs last season, the Bears (7-6) came away with their fourth win in five games after dropping four in a row. The Cowboys (6-7) have lost seven of 10 since a 3-0 start.

''I think it saws we're resilient,'' Trubisky said. ''We stick together. We believe in each other even when nobody else believes in us. It's a special group in that locker room. We just want to keep this feeling going.''

Trubisky shook off an early interception near the goal line to complete 23 of 31 passes for 244 yards. He matched a season high for touchdown throws and set one with 63 yards rushing. That included a 23-yard scoring dash early in the fourth quarter, making it 31-14.

Allen Robinson caught two TD passes, and Anthony Miller had one as Chicago tied a season scoring high. Khalil Mack had a sack. Linebacker Roquan Smith left the game with a pectoral injury on the opening drive, with coach Matt Nagy saying it ''doesn't look real good for him.'' But the Bears took out the NFC East leaders after beating the struggling Detroit Lions twice and New York Giants in recent weeks.

''Most teams at some point in time will hit some type of adversity,'' Nagy said. ''We went through that four-game stretch. It was difficult in a lot of different ways. ... Everybody's seeing what type of people we have on this football team. No one's flinched. We've pulled together. We've become even tighter.''

Facing a top-10 defense for the third week in a row, the Cowboys once again couldn't get their high-powered offense going.

NFL passing leader Prescott was 27 of 49 for 334 yards and a touchdown. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 81 yards - his fifth straight game under 100 - and two scores.

Michael Gallup had 109 yards receiving. Amari Cooper caught six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown, but the Cowboys lost their third straight. They lead Philadelphia by a half-game in the division.

''I can't put a finger on it,'' Prescott said. ''I wish I could right now, if I could we wouldn't be in this situation, we would be getting over this and out of this slump, but that's the most frustrating part, we have the skill level, we have the players, we have the chemistry at times, But we're not playing together as a team, complementary enough when we need to and we need to figure it out what it is.''

TAKING CONTROL

Kept out of the end zone in a 13-9 loss at New England two weeks ago and then held to two touchdowns in falling 26-15 to Buffalo on Thanksgiving, the Cowboys went 75 yards for a score on the game's opening possession. Elliott lunged in from the 2 to cap a 17-play drive.

Dallas' Jourdan Lewis then intercepted Trubisky's pass with a neat play near the left pylon, dragging his left foot. He was initially ruled out, but the call was overturned by a replay review.

But it was all Bears after that.

Chicago tied it early in the second quarter when Trubisky hit Robinson with a 5-yard pass and took a 10-7 lead on a 36-yard field goal by Eddy Pineiro. Dallas' Brett Maher then missed a 42-yarder wide right. Chicago added to the lead in the closing seconds of the half with Trubisky's 8-yard pass to Robinson, and Miller's 14-yarder on a screen in the third made it 24-7.

FOR KICKS

Maher is 20 for 30 on field goals this season after making 1 of 2. The 10 misses are more than any other NFL kicker in a season the past four years.

INJURIES

Cowboys: WR Cedric Wilson jammed his left leg trying to catch a long pass in the closing minute. ... LB Leighton Vander Esch (neck), NT Antwaun Woods (knee) and S Jeff Heath (shoulder) were inactive.

Bears: WR Javon Wims (knee) walked off gingerly in the closing seconds of the first half after an awkward landing as he tried to make a leaping catch in the end zone. ... CB Prince Amukamara (hamstring) was inactive after being listed as doubtful. ... WR Taylor Gabriel (concussion), TE Ben Braunecker (concussion) and RT Bobby Massie (ankle) all missed their second straight game.

UP NEXT

Cowboys: Host Los Angeles Rams on Dec. 15.

Bears: At Green Bay on Dec. 15.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s 6-pack

Pitchers who threw fewest pitches/batter last year:

3.58? Brett Anderson, A?s

3.63? German Marquez, NYY

3.65? Zach Eflin Phil, Mike Soroka, Atl

3,67? Masahiro Tanaka, NYY

3.69? Sandy Alcantara, Mia

3.70? Kyle Hendricks Cubs, Joe Musgrove, Pitt

Quote of the Day:
?Come on. Is that really a possibility? They?re not really thinking about that. Are they???I hate it. I think it?s stupid.?
Clayton Kershaw, talking about the possibility of robot umps in the major leagues

Friday?s quiz
Which retired tennis star once played a judge in an episode of Law and Order?

Thursday?s quiz
Lovie Smih was the Chicago Bears? coach the last time they played in a Super Bowl.

Wednesday?s quiz
14 Vice-Presidents later became President of the United States.

***********************

Friday?s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here?..

13) Bears 31, Cowboys 24:
? Dallas drove 75 yards on 17 plays (8:57) for a TD on their first drive.
? Cowboys? next five drives: 19 plays, 58 yards, 2 first downs, 0 points.
? Dallas lost four of last five games, but still leads NFC East at 6-7.

? Trubisky ran ball nine times for 64 yards and a TD; he threw for three TD?s.
? Bears won four of last five games; they won field position by 19 yards.
? Chicago has outscored opponents 98-30 in 3rd quarter this year.

12) There are two divisions in the ACC during football season, the Atlantic and the Coastal. The winners meet in the ACC title game, this year being held in Charlotte.

Over the last nine years, Clemson/Florida State have won the Atlantic Division every year, but over the last seven years, the Coastal Division has been won by seven different teams. The true definition of parity; seven division champs in seven years.

11) Ohio State 74, North Carolina 49? This is the first time since 1949-50 that North Carolina hasn?t scored 80+ points in any of their first eight games in a season. Tar Heels are 6-2, with both of their losses are against top 15 teams.

10) UNLV 81, Fresno State 80 2OT? Rebels have already played four OT games; this was first one they won- it was their conference opener, so it was more important than the other ones.

9) Louisiana Tech 74, Mississippi State 67? Good win for Conference USA. Tech made 10-16 on arc in this game. State made 11-23 on arc and still lost.

Auburn 81, Furman 78 OT? Furman led this game by 14 with 16:09 to play; they made 13-31 on arc, but Auburn rallies to stay unbeaten, despite turning ball over 19 times (-4).

8) Ideas for reality TV shows:
? Inside the room as they make the NFL schedule each year.
? Inside the room of a major league team approaching the trade deadline.
? Inside agent Scott Boras? entourage during the Winter Meetings.

7) Baseball stuff:
? Milwaukee got C Omar Narvaez from Seattle for minor league P Adam Hill and a competitive balance draft pick.
? Mets got OF Jake Marisnick from Houston for two minor leaguers.

6) From ESPN.com: Over/under season win totals that already cashed:
Seahawks over 8.5
49ers over 8
Ravens over 8
Bills over 7

Chargers under 10
Eagles under 10
Falcons under 8.5
Bengals under 6

5) Former Auburn QB Joey Gatewood is transferring to Kentucky; not often a kid transfers to another school in the same league. He will be eligible to play in 2021, and hopefully, those two teams will play once or twice while he is playing for the Wildcats.

4) Michigan-Kentucky are going to play a basketball game in London next December.

3) Indiana Hoosiers are only D-I college hoop team that hasn?t played a game yet away from its home arena- they play at Wisconsin Saturday.

2) Suns 139, Pelicans 132 OT? Booker scored 44 points for the Suns, who blew a 16-point lead in 4th quarter. Four of five New Orleans starters scored 20+ points in the loss.

1) Baseball?s winter meetings are next week; a good time to think about next season and try and make some decisions about my fantasy baseball team, which had a cruddy year LY. One of the bigger decisions; what writers do I trust for information?

Last year I was reading some stuff on The Athletic, and this writer was raving about a pitcher on the Blue Jays, Trent Thornton. I didn?t have any opinion on Thornton myself, but I took a leap of faith in the writer and added Thornton, who proceeded to get treated like a pi?ata by hitters? his ERA on August 31 was 5.48 (he did have a solid September).

No bueno. Moral of the story: Be careful who you listen to.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday?s 6-pack

Top six picks for Week 14 in Westgate Super Contest:

6) Bills (747) +5.5

5) Saints (787) -2.5

4) Chiefs (803) +3

3) 49ers (809) +2.5

2) Bengals (895) +8.5

1) Rams (899) even

2019 record: 41-34-3

Quote of the Day:
?I?m a breakfast burrito guy in the mornings. Where I go, you have to ask for the salsa. They charge you for it. It?s kind of ridiculous. ? We play for the national championship, and I?m pleased to say I now get free salsa.?
Texas Tech basketball coach Chris Beard

Sunday?s quiz
Where was the first SEC football championship game played, in 1992?

Saturday?s quiz
Vince Young led the Texas Longhorns to the 2005 national title; he played 54 of his 60 NFL games for the Tennessee Titans.

Friday?s quiz
Retired tennis star Billie Jean King played a judge in an episode of Law and Order.

**************************

Sunday?s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday??

Random thoughts on a December day when I?m hunkered down inside because it is damn cold outside, and I?m already tired of winter:

Noon-4pm:
Oklahoma 30, Baylor 23 OT? NFL teams are very high on Baylor coach Matt Rhule as someone who will be an NFL head coach someday. His QB got knocked out of this game in the 2nd quarter, but they still took Oklahoma to OT, behind freshman 3rd-stringer Jacob Zeno, who completed only two passes, but for 159 yards.

11am local time kickoff means a 7am pre-game meal. Not an ideal situation, though, such an early kickoff. TV decides which games are played when.

This was Baylor?s first appearance in the Big X title game; they were outgained 146-16 in the first quarter, 433-265 for the game.

Baylor 63, Arizona 58? Feel bad for the Baylor basketball players, with this game at same time as the football game, which was played 98 miles away in Arlington. They actually let fans into the basketball game in Waco for free, and not that many showed up.

? Cheerleading trivia: Half of Baylor?s cheerleaders went to the football game, half stayed behind in Waco and went to the basketball game. The cheerleaders who stayed behind get to go to Baylor?s bowl game, which seems like it would be more fun than a 98-mile bus ride to Dallas.

Appalachian State 45, Louisiana 38? This game was 42-17 with 2:00 left in third quarter; Ragin? Cajuns closed to within final margin with 1:19 left to play. ULL gained 513 yards, but their minus-2 turnover ratio did them in. App State?s last TD was a pick-6.

Miami OH 26, Central Michigan 21? RedHawks won their 16th MAC title, after gaining only 61 yards in the first half. CMU did great just getting to this game, after going 1-11 LY.

Ohio State 106, Penn State 74? If the NCAA tournament started tomorrow (it doesn?t), I?d pick a Louisville-Ohio State national title game.

4-7pm:
LSU 37, Georgia 10? Joe Burrow is going to win the Heisman Trophy; at one time, he was the 3rd-string QB at Ohio State. Three of the four QB?s in the national playoff are going to be guys who transferred from their original school.

Memphis 29, Cincinnati 24?- Not often teams play each other two weeks in a row; Tigers beat Cincinnati twice in eight days- thats the good news.

Bad news for Memphis? their coach is expected to bolt to Florida $tate today.

Boise State 31, Hawai?i 10? If you went to college at Hawai?i, how excited would you be about visiting Boise in December? Broncos win their third Muntain West title game.

Wisconsin 84, Indiana 64? Hoosiers were last D-I team in America to play outside their home arena, and it showed here- they got waxed. This was Indiana?s 17th loss in a row in Madison.

Creighton 95, Nebraska 76? Bluejays led this game 37-7; Nebraska has ton of work to do on the recruiting trail.

Memphis 65, UAB 57? Blazers were up 20 in first half, but Memphis is so talented; they won this going away. When Tigers get Wiseman back in January, they have shot at developing into a Final Four contender. Big afternoon for the Memphis athletic department.

Xavier 73, Cincinnati 66? One of best rivalries in the country, been dominated by the home team recently. Naji Marshall scored 31 for the Musketeers.

7pm-on?..:
? Clemson 62, Virginia 17? Tigers won their fifth consecutive ACC title, winning their 28th game in a row. Lawrence threw for 302 yards, four TD?s.

? Ohio State 34, Wisconsin 21? Badgers led 21-7 at halftime, then got crushed in second half; Ohio State wins Big 14 title game for third year in a row.

Western Kentucky 86, Arkansas 79 OT? Hilltoppers scored last five points of regulation, but may have lost star C Massey to a knee injury. This was Arkansas? first loss of season.

Marquette 77, Kansas State 65? Solid road win for the Golden Eagles, who made 12-22 on the arc.

Elsewhere??.
? Portland Trailblazers? Rodney Hood tore his left achilles Friday night; he was scoring 11 ppg in 29.5 mpg. Tough injury to come back from.

? Texas Rangers signed P Jordan Lyles to a 2-year, $16M deal, after signing Kyle Gibson to a 3-year, $30M deal last week.

? Florida State is expected to name Memphis coach Mike Norvell its new football coach at a news conference Sunday afternoon.

? Colts will have Chase McLaughlin kicking for them in Tampa Sunday, in place of Adan Vinatieri.

? NFL fined the Detroit Lions? organization $75,000, HC Matt Patricia $25,000, and GM Bob Quinn $10,000 for failing to properly update the injury status of QB Matthew Stafford before the November 10 game against the Bears.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 14 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather and Pros vs Joes
Patrick Everson

Atlanta wideout Julio Jones returns to the lineup for Sunday's home game against Carolina. Oddsmakers at The SuperBook peg Jones as worth a half-point to the line, and the Falcons are laying 3.5.

NFL Week 14 doesn?t have much in the way of major injury news, but there are certainly other elements ? including the elements themselves ? impacting the numbers. We check in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

ATLANTA FALCONS: Julio Jones (shoulder) missed the Thanksgiving Day home loss to the Saints, but he?ll be back Sunday at home for a division battle against the Panthers. Also back is Falcons tight end Austin Hooper (knee), after a three-game absence. ?Jones is worth a half-point, nothing for Hooper,? Osterman said. Atlanta is a 3.5-point favorite, after opening -2, and the total is 47.

CAROLINA PANTHERS: Tight end Greg Olsen (concussion) is out, but Osterman said there was no adjustment on that info for Carolina?s tilt at Atlanta. The Panthers are 3.5-point underdogs.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Here?s how far Adam Vinatieri?s stock has dropped: the place-kicker is out Sunday at Tampa Bay due to a knee injury, and Osterman said The SuperBook made no line adjustment on that information. T.Y. Hilton (calf) is also out for Indy. ?He?s worth a half-point.? The Colts are 3.5-point underdogs.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Wideout JuJu-Smith Schuster (knee) and running back James Conner (shoulder) are again out, as the Steelers travel to Arizona. ?Schuster and Conner are worth a half-point combined.? Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point pup.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is questionable for a home game against Tennessee. ?Jacobs might be worth a half-point. The Raiders are so banged up that it?s hard to tell how much he affects this particular game.? Oakland is a 2.5-point home ?dog.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Wideout Adam Thielen (hamstring) is doubtful, but seeing as he?s been out a month now, Osterman said that was already factored in. The Vikings are still 13-point home favorites over Detroit.

NEW YORK JETS: Running back Le?Veon Bell (illness) is questionable, but that didn?t change any thinking at The SuperBook for the Jets? home game against Miami. New York is laying 5.5.


Weather Watch

WASHINGTON AT GREEN BAY: It?ll be cloudy and cool, with temperatures in the 30s throughout, along with winds in the mid-teens. ?The total has come down a half-point due to the wind, not so much the temperature.? The total is at 42.5.

BALTIMORE AT BUFFALO: It?ll be cloudy, with winds approaching 20 mph at New Era Field. ?This game has come down a half-point due to forecasted wind.? The total is 44.

CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND: Winds of 20 mph are expected for this AFC North contest. ?The total has come down 1.5 points, some of that due to wind, and some due to the possibility of Baker Mayfield being limited with his injury.? Mayfield has a hand injury, but he wasn?t listed on the Browns? injury report. The total is 41.5.

KANSAS CITY AT NEW ENGLAND: It?s a 4:25 p.m. ET kick, and evening temperatures will be in the low 30s, but Osterman said that?s had no impact on the game. The total is 49.5.


Pros vs. Joes

BALTIMORE AT BUFFALO: ?Pros were on the Bills early, and since then, we?ve had a steady flow of Ravens parlay bets.? Baltimore is laying 6 points.

KANSAS CITY AT NEW ENGLAND: ?Joes have been backing the Chiefs, and we?ve had some sharp money on the Patriots.? The Patriots opened -3, briefly went to -2.5 early in the week and reached -3.5 Friday morning.

PITTSBURGH AT ARIZONA: ?Pros have backed the Cardinals a little bit, but we?re getting mostly Steelers money on parlays and straight bets.? Pittsburgh is -2.5.
Reverse Line Moves

WASHINGTON AT GREEN BAY: ?The line opened Packers -14, and we we?re down to -12.5. The money, however, is coming in on the Packers from the public.? That led to an uptick to -13 Friday afternoon.

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Josh Inglis


GOLDEN PASCAL

Yesterday, we wrote about the lack of receiving options the Indianapolis Colts have ahead of their tasty matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? No. 19 DVOA pass defense. With T.Y. officially out, that leaves Zach Pascal and Paris Campbell as the No. 1 and No. 2 WRs for Jacoby Brissett.

The Bucs have the league?s best run defense which will force the Colts to move the ball through the air, whether they prefer to or not. Luckily for Indy, Tampa Bay also has one of the worst secondaries in the league. Bruce Arians? defense is giving up 83.7 yards a game to opposing WR1s and 72.4 yards to WR2s. That makes Pascal, the team?s leading receiving, a strong play for Sunday especially coming off a seven-catch 109-yard performance last week.

We are riding the Over on Pascal?s receiving total of 46.5 yards.


MY BETTER HALF

The Cleveland Browns are still trying to make something of the season as they are winners of three of their last four but still sit in third place in the AFC North at 5-7. One thing they have been better at than 29 other teams of late, is to score in the first half. Over the last three weeks, Cleveland has been putting up 17.3 points as well as allowing just 4.3 in the first half since Week 11 and they'll hope to keep that going this week against the rival Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals have been getting beat up all year but even more so in the first half. In the seven games versus Top-20 offenses, Cincy has been outscored 124-60 in the first thirty minutes and hasn?t covered a first-half spread of +4 or greater in six of those seven games.

We are taking the Browns on the first-half spread at -4.


A WALK IN THE WOODS

L.A. Rams receiver Robert Woods has been turning heads of late. The 27-year-old WR has hit the 95-yard mark in three straight games as he has seen 38 targets and has accumulated 364 yards over that stretch. Considering the Rams have only thrown the ball 100 times since Week 11, Woods owns 38 percent of the team?s target share and a whopping 46 percent of its total air yards.

The Seattle Seahawks will have their hands full with Woods, Cooper Kupp, Brandin Cooks and Tyler Higbee meaning Woods? could find the vulnerable deep areas in Seattle?s Cover 3 zone defense as well as the open passes in the flats. Jared Goff passed for 396 yards against the Seahawks in Week 6 where Woods saw nine targets that he turned into five catches and 48 yards ? numbers he can improve on this week.

Take the Over on Woods? receiving total of 68.5 yards.


WAKING UP EARLY

Sticking with first-half plays, the New Orleans Saints will host the San Francisco 49ers in a game that has major home-field playoff implications. Both these teams sit Top-5 in first-half points scored in the last three weeks with the Saints and 49ers combining for 33.7 first-half points.

Since November, these two clubs are a combined 6-2 O/U on first-half totals of 22 points or less and this week both these offenses get to play in the warm and quick confines of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. We are getting behind the first-half Over 22.


QB TD

Patrick Mahomes has looked like his old self as the 2018 MVP has rushed for 84 yards and a TD in his last two games. Up next is New England?s No. 1 defense. If the KC QB can?t find his receivers against the No. 2 passing defense, Mahomes may have to improvise which one would think could lead to some QB rushing yards, but the Pats defense has also stuffed that this year.

Lamar Jackson ran for 3.6 yards per carry which is 3.4 yards lower than his average. Dak Prescott couldn?t gain any yardage on the ground either and most recently Deshaun Watson managed negative yards on four carries against New England.

Mahomes could still use his legs to help the team in the form of the more profitable QB rushing TD. Jackson did rush for two scores while Josh Allen also ran one in back in Week 4. With RB Damien Williams out, Andy Reid may have to get creative in the red zone which could possibly increase Mahomes rushing TD probability.

Sprinkle a little cheddar on a Mahomes? rushing TD for a juicy return.

 

[Cnotes53]

Gridiron Angles - Week 14
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Saints are 12-0 ATS (9.17 ppg) since Dec 26, 2004 coming off a road game where they gained no more than 15 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Dolphins are 0-12 ATS (-12.33 ppg) since Nov 09, 2014 coming off a game with at least 300 passing yards.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
-- The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (7.11 ppg) since Dec 12, 2016 coming off a game where Julian Edelman had at least 100 receiving yards.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
-- PLAY AGAINST: Teams which committed over 100 penalty yards for two straight games are 18-31-3 ATS. Active against Jacksonville and New Orleans.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Colts are 0-11 OU (-10.32 ppg) since Dec 22, 2013 as a dog coming off a game where they allowed less than 200 passing yards.

-- The Redskins are 11-0-2 OU (10.12 ppg) since Nov 29, 2009 as a road dog when they covered by at least seven points last game.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Chargers are 12-0 ATS (+7.33 ppg) on the road when they lost their last two road games.

NFL USER TREND:
-- The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS since 2011 hosting AFC West teams.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday Blitz - Week 14
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Ravens (-6, 44) at Bills ? 1:00 PM EST
This matchup has plenty of ramifications for seeding in the AFC playoffs as the winner holds a crucial tiebreaker advantage. Baltimore (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) looks like a runaway train by winning eight consecutive games, while handing San Francisco its second loss of the season in last Sunday?s 20-17 home victory. The Ravens had their five-game ATS hot streak snapped as they failed to cash as 5 ?-point favorites, but Baltimore has excelled on the road this season with a 5-1 mark away from M&T Bank Stadium.

The Bills (9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) are the top Wild Card team in the AFC entering Week 14, while surprisingly sitting one game back of the Patriots for first place in the AFC East. Buffalo dominated Dallas on Thanksgiving day, 26-15 as 6 ?-point road underdogs to improve to 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the ?dog role this season. Since losing at Cleveland four weeks ago, the Bills are riding a three-game winning streak, while hitting the UNDER in four of the past five contests.

These teams hooked up in the 2018 season opener in Baltimore as the Ravens destroyed the Bills, 47-3 as 7 ?-point favorites. MVP candidate Lamar Jackson did not start at quarterback in that blowout for Baltimore, as the Ravens have won seven of his career nine road starts with the two losses coming at Kansas City.

Best Bet: Ravens 20, Bills 17

49ers at Saints (-2, 44 ?) ? 1:00 PM EST
Home-field advantage isn?t necessarily on the line at the Superdome on Sunday, but the winner is in an excellent position to own the top NFC seed. San Francisco (10-2 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) is fresh off its first road loss of the season in a 20-17 setback at Baltimore. In spite of the loss, the Niners improved to 4-0 ATS in the role of an away underdog, while facing its third straight opponent that currently owns a record of 9-3 or better. San Francisco has cashed the UNDER in four of six road contests, while yielding 20 points or fewer five times.

The Saints (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) wrapped up their third consecutive NFC South title by knocking off the Falcons on Thanksgiving night, 26-18 as seven-point road favorites. New Orleans moved to 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS as a single-digit favorite, while the Saints are 8-2 ATS since failing to cover in the first two games of the season. The Saints have topped the 30-point mark in four of six home contests, as Sean Payton?s team has compiled an 11-2 record in the past 13 regular season games in the Big Easy.

The Niners, Saints, and Seahawks all enter Sunday at 10-2 apiece as New Orleans owns the tiebreaker over Seattle. San Francisco still faces Seattle on the road for a second time in Week 17 after losing at home to the Seahawks last month. The Saints defeated the Niners, 41-23 in Santa Clara in 2016, while San Francisco is making its first trip to the Superdome since beating New Orleans in overtime back in 2014.

Best Bet: 49ers 23, Saints 19

Chiefs at Patriots (-3, 49 ?) ? 4:25 PM EST
The much-anticipated rematch of the epic AFC championship game from last January between Kansas City and New England takes place on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) outlasted the Chiefs in overtime, 37-31 as three-point road underdogs to capture their third consecutive AFC title, while also pulling off the season sweep of Kansas City. New England grabbed the regular season matchup in Foxborough, 43-40, but the Chiefs cashed as slim 3 ?-point underdogs.

The stakes are high for the Patriots this time around, as they are tied with the Ravens for the top spot in the AFC playoffs, although New England loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with Baltimore. Bill Belichick?s team is coming off their second bad Sunday night road loss in less than a month in last Sunday?s 28-22 setback at Houston as three-point favorites. Tom Brady threw two late touchdown passes, but the Pats dug themselves a 28-9 hole that was nearly impossible to get out of.

The Chiefs (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) likely won?t possess home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but picked up some major breathing room for the top spot in the AFC West. Kansas City blasted Oakland last Sunday at Arrowhead Stadium, 40-9 to easily cash as 11-point favorites, while owning a two-game edge over the Raiders with four contests remaining. Patrick Mahomes has failed to pass for more than 182 yards in each of the last two games for Kansas City, but the Chiefs enter Foxborough with a 5-1 record this season on the road.

Best Bet: Patriots 31, Chiefs 24

BEST TOTAL PLAY
UNDER 47 ? Seahawks at Rams

Seattle outlasted Los Angeles, 30-29 in the first meeting earlier this season to eclipse the OVER of 49. The total dropped two points for this matchup at the L.A. Coliseum as the Rams? defense has been sharp of late by allowing 17 points or less in five of the past six games. The Seahawks have given up 10, 20, and 24 points after yielding 30 points in the previous contest this season. The last four meetings between these NFC West have finished OVER the total, but the Rams have scored 17 and 6 points in two primetime home games this season.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

When the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released early lines for Week 14 on November 26, the Browns were listed as 10 ?-point home favorites over the Bengals. Adjustments were made following Cleveland?s loss at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati grabbing its first win of the season last week as the Browns are currently a seven-point favorite. These Ohio rivals are meeting for the first time in 2019 as Cleveland swept the series last season, but the Bengals are 7-1 ATS in the past eight matchups.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Cardinals were blown out by the Rams at home last week, as Arizona welcomes in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are feeling good about themselves after rallying past the rival Browns last week to improve to 7-5 and being in line for a Wild Card berth. Arizona has lost five straight games, while Pittsburgh is 6-1 the last seven contests. However, the Cardinals feature the better quarterback in Kyler Murray as opposed to Pittsburgh?s Devlin Hodges, who is making only his third career start. Arizona is a 1 ?-point underdog, as the Cardinals are 3-2 ATS in the role of a home ?dog.

BETCHA DIDN?T KNOW

The Jaguars don?t save their best football for December. It?s not like Jacksonville fared well in November this season, but the Jags are 2-5 SU/ATS in their last seven December contests since 2017. In those seven games, Jacksonville has been limited to 17 points or fewer each time, while hitting the UNDER six times. The Jags host the stumbling Chargers on Sunday as three-point underdogs, as the total sits at 43.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Week 14
Joe Williams

We're into our first weekend of December and Week 14 of the National Football League regular season. We have just four more weeks of NFL action before the playoffs begin. The Thursday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys-Chicago Bears saw the 'over' connect, a rarity for TNF.

2019 Total Results - Game & Halves

Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Week 13 8-8 9-7 6-10
Over/Under Game 1st Half 2nd Half
Year-to-Date 92-99-1 90-101-1 83-104-5

The 'over' and 'under' ended up 8-8 during the Thanksgiving week, with the 'over' connecting in two of the three primetime games, and the 'under' going 2-1 in the Thursday action. The public loves 'over' results, and there were plenty, though.

Savvy bettors playing the halves watched the 'over' go 9-7 in the first-half but the scoring slowed down in the final 30 minutes and that helped the 'under' go 10-6 in the second-half. On the season, the low side has trended ahead in both the first-half (101-90-1) and second-half (104-83-5).

Division Bell

In the seven divisional battles in Week 13, the slight edge went to the 'under' - including NFC South battle between the New Orleans Saints-Atlanta Falcons on Thanksgiving night. The under is now 36-31 (53.7%) in divisional games this season.

Divisional Game Results Week 13

Chicago at Detroit (Thu.) Over (37) Chicago 24, Detroit 20
New Orleans at Atlanta (Thu.) Under (48) New Orleans 26, Atlanta 18
Tennessee at Indianapolis Over (42) Tennessee 31, Indianapolis 17
Cleveland at Pittsburgh Under (40) Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 13
L.A. Rams at Arizona Under (47.5) L.A. Rams 34, Arizona 7
Oakland at Kansas City Under (49.5) Kansas City 40, Oakland 9
L.A. Chargers at Denver Over (38.5) Denver 23, L.A. Chargers 20

Line Moves and Public Leans

Listed below are the largest line moves for Week 14 based off our VI Odds as of Saturday morning.

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay: 50 ? to 47
Denver at Houston: 40 ? to 42 ?
Miami at N.Y. Jets: 44 to 46
Pittsburgh at Arizona: 45 ? to 43 ?
Kansas City at New England: 50 ? to 49
L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville: 44 ? to 43

Listed below are the five largest leans for Week 14 per the betting trend percentages on the VI Matchup index as of Saturday morning.

Washington at Green Bay: Over 88%
Miami at N.Y. Jets: Over 87%
Baltimore at Buffalo: Over 83%
Denver at Houston: Over 83%
L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville: Under 79%
Carolina at Atlanta: Under 78%

There is also a heavy lean on for the 'over' (75 percent) in the Cincinnati at Cleveland matchup, and heavy lean on the 'under' in San Francisco at New Orleans (68 percent) contest.

Handicapping Week 14

Week 13 Total Results
Matchups Over/Under Year to Date
Divisional 3-4 29-34
NFC vs. NFC 2-0 20-21
AFC vs. AFC 1-1 17-17-1
AFC vs. NFC 1-3 26-26

Week 14 Action

Baltimore at Buffalo: It will be offense vs. defense when the Ravens invade Ralph Wilson Stadium in Orchard Park on Sunday. We only need to look back at last Sunday to see how well that worked out, as Baltimore MVP candidate quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Ravens won 20-17 over the defensive-minded 49ers. This one will be on the road in Buffalo, and the Bills have four 'under' results in six home game sthis season, while posting a 4-1 under mark across the past five overall. They have allowed just 12 total points in their past two home games, but that was against the Broncos and Redskins. Obviously Jackson and the Ravens provide a much bigger challenge. Baltimore had posted 30 or more points in five straight games until their 20-point showing last week against the Niners. The Ravens have averaged 44.6 PPG in four games this season as road favorites and the over has produced a 4-0 record in those contests.

San Francisco at New Orleans: Speaking of the Niners, they'll renew acquaintances with QB Drew Brees and the Saints down in the Big Easy. The 49ers hit the 'under' in last week's road game, and the under is now 4-2 across the past six away from home, including 3-1 in the past four. While their defense hasn't been as dominant as earlier in the season, allowing 106 total points - or 21.2 PPG - across the past five games, they still showed how much they can dominate in a battle against the Packers Nov. 24, allowing just eight points. The under is 3-1 in four games east of the Mississippi River this season, and this will be their fifth and final game in such situation. Even though New Orleans has been a great over bet at home historically, the club has watched its total results produce a stalemate (3-3) through six games at the Superdome this season.

Cincinnati at Cleveland: The Bengals and Browns will battle twice in the final four weeks of the season. Last season the Browns swept the series with the 'over' going 1-0-1. However, the 'under' is 4-0-1 in the past five meetings at FirstEnergy Stadium. In the past nine meetings, the winning team has managed 30.4 points while the losing side has posted 12.4 points, and the 'under' is 5-3-1 during that span. The under is 3-1 across Cleveland's past four outings, and the offense has managed just 21 or fewer points in five of the past six, and eight of their 12 outings overall. The Bengals posted 22 points last week in their win over the Jets, their first time with more than 17 points since Oct. 6. The 'under' has hit in three in a row for the Bengals, and is 6-0 in six road games this season, while going 8-3-1 in 12 games overall.

Carolina at Atlanta: The Panthers and Falcons just met on Nov. 17, and Atlanta came away with a 29-3 road victory as the 'under' hit. That's one of five under results in the past six for the Falcons. They have also hit the under in five of their six games this season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, 17.6 PPG in six home dates. As far as the Panthers are concerned, they're in freefall, and this will be their first game without fired head coach Ron Rivera. We'll see if the coaching regime change sparks more in the way of offense. The Panthers are averaging just 17.8 PPG over the past four outings. Defense has been another issue, as they cannot stop anyone. They have allowed 20 or more points in eight straight games, and 11 of 12 games overall. As such, the over is 6-2 across the past eight outings, although one of those unders was, of course, the battle with the Falcs.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: It's a rematch of their Nov. 3 battle, and the Dolphins look for another win over their rivals. Miami won 26-18 in the first meeting at Hard Rock Stadium, an 'over' result. The over has actually hit in three straight for Miami, as their offense has come alive with totals of 20, 34 and 37 while defensively they're still poor, yielding 37, 41 and 31. The Jets were humming along with three straight 34-point performances on offense until they stumbled in Cincinnati of all places, falling 22-6. The under is 7-2 in the past nine meetings at MetLife Stadium between these AFC East rivals.

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay: The Colts have been very banged up, but they'll likely get RB Marlon Mack (hand) back this week. The offense has been a little listless over the past two, going for 17 points in each outing, both losses. However, the Bucs are among the worst against the pass. Still, Indy has hit the 'under' in three of their past four road outings. This will be the first of three road games in the final four outings for the Colts. The Bucs managed 28 points last week in Jacksonville, as they did their part in trying to hit the 'over'. However, they allowed just 11 points, a season best, and that put a stop to an 8-0 'over' run for Tampa. The over is 4-0 in the past four at Raymond James Stadium since an under in Week 1 against the 49ers.

L.A. Chargers at Jacksonville: The Jaguars are making a change back to rookie QB Gardner Minshew, as they try to jump-start the offense after an 11-point effort against the Bucs. They have managed just 3, 13, 20 and 11 across the past four outings, hitting the under in two of four. That's because their defense has been horrific, yielding 26, 33, 42 and 28. Perhaps the change at QB helps somewhat, but they need to learn how to tackle again, too. The Bolts are struggling mightily, too, and they have hit the under in eight of the past 11 games. The under is 3-1 in four games for the Bolts in the Eastern or Central Time Zones this season, too.

Kansas City at New England: The Chiefs enter play with back-to-back under results for the first time this season, mainly due to an impressive turnaround defensively, yielding just 17 and 9 in the past two games against the Chargers and Raiders. The Patriots are a completely different animal, however. Remember, in the past three meetings in this series since Sept. 7, 2017 we have seen a 42-27 win by the Chiefs in Foxboro, a 43-40 win by the Patriots on Oct. 14, 2018 and a 37-31 win in overtime in last season's AFC Championship Game. The over has cashed in five straight meetings in this series, too. For the Chiefs, the over has cashed in 12 of the past 16 on the road, and is 12-3-1 in their past 16 as a road 'dog. It's the complete opposite for the Patriots, with the under 17-6 in the past 23 or New England as a favorite, and 7-3 in the past 10 at home.

Pittsburgh at Arizona: The Steelers made a change to QB Devlin Hodges Iast week and it paid off with a 20-13 win, and an 'under' result. That's four straight under results for the Steelers, and the under has hit in 9-3 in their 12 games overall. For the Cardinals, they hit the under last week in a loss at home to the Rams, scoring a season-low seven points. The last time they scored in single digits they rebounded with 25 points in the following game, an 'over' result. The over is 4-2 in six games at home for the Cardinals.

Tennessee at Oakland: The Titans have not only been competitive since changing from QB Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill, they have been one of the better teams in the league. They were blanked in Denver on Oct. 13, so head coach Mike Vrabel made the decision to go to Tannehill. He might have earned himself Coach of the Year honors, as they have won five of six since, and they have scored 20 or more points during the span, including 35, 42 and 31 across the past three, all covers and 'over' results. The over is 6-0 in the past six for Tennessee since moving to Tannehill. The Raiders offense has disappeared in the past three outings, averaging just 9.7 PPG. However, defensively they're still challenged, allowing a total of 74 points in the past two. That bodes well for another Tennessee 'over' result.

Heavy Expectations

There are four games listed with a spread of nine points or more for Week 13, with the home team listed as favorites in two of them. The totals range from 42 to 46 and cashing a total could come down to whether or not the favorite lays off the gas in the second-half.

Washington at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. ET): The Packers offense has been a bit erratic lately, scoring 31 points last week after just eight in the previous outing. They hit the over last week as a result of a 31-point outburst against the Giants, and they'll face another sub-.500 team this week. The over is 19-7 in Green Bay's past 26 against losing teams, as that's when QB Aaron Rodgers and the offense really shines. The Redskins found a running game last week, and we'll see if they can continue to make progress in that area on the road. They went for a season-high 29 points in last week's win at skidding Carolina, and they're averaging a respectable 24.0 PPG across the past two outings. For the Redskins, the under is 4-1 in the past five instances they have been a double-digit underdog, although the over hit last week in their outright win in the situation, and also in Week 1, a 32-27 setback in Philadelphia.

Denver at Houston (1:00 p.m. ET): The Broncos have seen the over hit in three of the past four, mainly because their defense is showing some signs of wear. They have allowed 20, 20 and 27 across the past three, and the offense is a little better lately, too. They've posted 24, 23, 3 and 23 across the past four, including last week's 23-20 win over the Chargers in rookie QB Drew Lock's first-career start. The Texans have hit for 28, 20, 7, 26, 27, 23, 31 and 53 in the past eight games, with that lone single-digit anomaly a blowout loss against Jackson and the Ravens. This will be Houston's first game as a double-digit favorite this season.

Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. ET): The Vikings blasted the Lions 42-30 at Ford Field on Oct. 20 in the first meeting. This will be just the third time they're favored by 10 or more points, and there isn't a ton to glean in that department. They hit the under in a Thursday night game as a 16.5-point favorite vs. the Redskins on Oct. 24, and the over hit in their 27-23 win over the Broncos on Nov. 17. They are 0-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite. The Lions haven't been a double-digit 'dog all season, but the over is 2-0 in their two games as an underdog by seven or more points, so there's that.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): See below

Under the Lights

Seattle at L.A. Rams (8:20 p.m. ET - Sun.): The Seahawks and Rams battle for the second time this season. In the first game in Seattle on Oct. 3, also a primetime game, the Seahawks edged the Rams 30-29 on a Thursday as the 'over' easily connected. The Rams offense gained some confidence last week with 34 points in Arizona, which was just one point less than they have combined in their previous three outings. The 'under' is 6-1 across the past seven for the Rams, as the defense has allowed 10 or fewer points in four of the past six, too. For the Seahawks, they have hit the 'over' in three of the past four outings, scoring 40, 27, 17 and 37, while yielding 34, 24, 9 and 30.

N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (8:15 p.m. ET - Mon.): The Giants and Eagles will square off in a less than attractive MNF game, but the games all bet the same. This will be the first of two meetings over the final four regular-season games. As a double-digit favorite the Eagles have hit the over in two of three situations. The Eagles defense allowed a stunning 37 points last week to the previously impotent Dolphins offense. The G-Men have hit the over in four of the past five games, and the over is 1-0 in their previous game as a double-digit underdog back on Oct. 10 in New England, also a primetime game. The defense has been abysmal for the Giants lately, allowing 27 or more points in seven of the past eight games, and 10 or 12 overall. The over is 2-1 in New York's three previous divisional games this season. Make a note that QB Eli is expected to start this Monday for New York.

 

[Cnotes53]

SNF - Seahawks at Rams
Matt Blunt

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)

It's always great this time of year when a big division game gets flexed into the SNF spot, and that's precisely what we've got this week with Seattle going on the road to face the Rams. A national audience saw Seattle play well enough to get by Minnesota on MNF last week, as that game vaulted the Seahawks into the top spot in the conference at the moment. Whether Seattle stays there is another question entirely, but if they are able to beat a desperate Rams team in LA this week, that will definitely go a long way.

The Rams are still in survival mode right now as their only hope to get back to the playoffs is through a Wild Card spot, and they may have to win out to do so. LA kept that hope alive with a dominating win from start to finish over Arizona last week, and with road dates vs Dallas and San Francisco on deck, the path is far from easy.

Yet, judging from the early market action this week, the Rams do have plenty of support in their corner this week, but will they get the job done?

Total Talk

This total has bounced around quite a bit this week as an opening number of 46.5 initially got bet up as high as 48.5 before 'under' support came back into have it currently sitting right back where it started at 46.5. A difference of opinion from bettors is ideal for the oddsmakers, as they can sweep up the juice on a spot like that no matter where it lands.

Going forward, it's tough to envision any other significant movement for this total the rest of the week, as it could bounce higher again, but chances are it hovers right around this 46.5 number. And with the division flip-flop theory suggesting the 'under' is the way to go after the first game ? 30-29 Seattle win ? easily cashed an 'over' ticket, looking on the low side of things is probably the only way to look.

I'm not that interested in it at the current price, but as more and more recreational action pours in over the weekend, I would not be surprised to see a move upwards again. After all, both sides are coming off efforts where they each put up 30+, and did have 59 points in the first meeting, and those tend to be some of the first things recreational bettors see/remember when handicapping this game. Should this total climb back up to 48 or higher I would be much more interested in going low, but at this current stage, it's an easy pass.

Side Spiel

The point spread on this game has seen significant movement as well, as the Rams have completely flipped to being currently listed as a -1 favorite now after opening up at +2.5/3. Hard not to take notice of a move like that considering the significance of this game in both the standings and television time slot, and it's a move that shouldn't be taken lightly.

It's understandable on multiple levels why the Rams have gotten plenty of support, as Seattle continues to have the statistical profile of a team that's winning more with smoke and mirrors then pure domination ? a +36 point differential thanks in large part to a +10 turnover differential. The turnover differential is likely unsustainable, and being a side that's sitting at 10-2 SU this week with just a +36 point differential is highly unsustainable as well. I mean, the Rams come into this game at +33 and are just 7-5 SU. That's typically where teams like Seattle would be, but they've been on the right side of a lot of bounces this year.

At the same time, Rams support has come in because this is another week where LA's season is essentially on the line. A loss this week really puts them in a bind in terms of any Wild Card chance, especially with the two road games they've got on deck. But a victory over a somewhat fraudulent Seattle team could also work wonders in terms of momentum for Seattle going forward, and you've got to keep that in mind as well.

Final Thoughts

With the last three meetings between these two teams all been decided by five points or less, we can expect a close game in this one regardless. If you do remember back to that first meeting this year, LA probably should have won that game outright ? one of those games where Seattle was on the right side of a few bounces/calls ? and since then, I believe the Rams have had this rematch circled on their calendar.

Obviously, LA did not plan on having to fight for their playoff lives when this return match rolled around, but that situation only adds to the notion that they will aim to be at their best from the outset here.

With the way this line has already moved, it's a Rams ML play or nothing here, and even though it's far from the best of the number now, I do think LA is the right side.

Best Bet: Rams Money-Line (-110)

 

[Cnotes53]

Circa Picks - Week 14
December 7, 2019
By VI News

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 ? Week 2 ? Week 3 ? Week 4 ? Week 5 ? Week 6 ? Week 7 ? Week 8 ? Week 9

Week 10 ? Week 11 ? Week 12 ? Week 13

Week 14

1) L.A. Rams PK (579)

2) San Francisco +2.5 (516)

3) Tennessee -2.5 (439)

4) Buffalo +5.5 (415)

5) Tie - Kansas City +3/New England -3 (406)

CIRCA - WEEK 14 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
Dallas (-3) 96 Chicago (+3) 66
Baltimore (-5.5) 382 Buffalo (+5.5) 415
Washington (+12.5) 183 Green Bay (-12.5) 226
Denver (+8.5) 304 Houston (-8.5) 129
San Francisco (+2.5) 516 New Orleans (-2.5) 377
Cincinnati (+7.5) 380 Cleveland (-7.5) 171
Carolina (+3) 129 Atlanta (-3) 308
Detroit (+13) 216 Minnesota (-13) 122
Miami (+5.5) 268 N.Y. Jets (-5.5) 143
Indianapolis (+3) 280 Tampa Bay (-3) 282
L.A. Chargers (-3) 150 Jacksonville (+3) 172
Kansas City (+3) 406 New England (-3) 406
Pittsburgh (-2.5) 285 Arizona (+2.5) 374
Tenneessee (-2.5) 439 Oakland (+2.5) 288
Seattle (PK) 368 L.A. Rams (PK) 576
N.Y. Giants (+9) 212 Philadelphia (-9) 128

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 2-3 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 1-4 11-9 55%
5 2-3 13-12 52%
6 2-3 15-15 50%
7 2-2-1 17-17-1 50%
8 3-2 20-19-1 51%
9 0-5 20-24-1 45%
10 1-3-1 21-27-2 43%
11 4-1 25-28-2 47%
12 3-2 28-30-2 48%
13 4-1 32-31-2 51%

 

[Udog]

Sunday's Essentials - Week 14
Tony Mejia

Ravens (-6/44) at Bills, 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Buffalo legitimately has one of the NFL?s most impressive defenses, ranking third in the league in yards allowed. They?re up next to step up to try and contain Lamar Jackson and a Ravens? offense that comes off their least-productive offensive performance of the season, beating the 49ers 20-17 at the gun in rainy Baltimore on Sunday. The weather should be a little more cooperative this time around since precipitation is expected to stay away until the evening, but Jackson and counterpart Josh Allen will have to deal with significant 20-plus degree winds that will make temperatures feel like they?re below freezing as a backdrop.

Buffalo has allowed more than 21 points at home only once this season and has seen the ?under? prevail in four of its last five games. They?ll look to execute a defensive game plan likely to copy some of San Francisco?s strategies last week since they held the Ravens to just 125 second-half yards last week. Baltimore was able to pull off the win by milking the clock and moving the chains on their final possession, setting up Justin Tucker?s winning 49-yard kick. The Bills will similarly be looking to keep the ball on the ground in a game like this, so if you find a prop on which of the 1 p.m. starts ends first, this would be a prime candidate given the weather conditions. Big plays in the passing game could come via the element of surprise with speedy guys like Marquise ?Hollywood? Brown and John Brown on opposite sides. With road games at Pittsburgh and New England on deck, the Bills would love to wrap up a playoff berth with an upset here. The number has held steady around at most shops after opening at 6.5. Backup Bills tackle Ty Nsekhe is the only player ruled out due to injury in this matchup, a rarity this time of year given how physical these teams are.

Broncos at Texans (-9/42.5), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Drew Lock picked up a win in his first pro start thanks to a well-thrown ball drawing a last-second pass interference penalty, but he?ll be hitting the road for the first time here. He?s shown off a great connection with second-year WR Courtland Sutton, so Houston will have to be wary of deep balls as they try to build off a strong performance in shutting down Tom Brady and the Patriots despite an ugly season stopping opposing aerial attacks. Meanwhile, the Texans? offense has produced 20 or more points in seven of eight. Deshaun Watson?s receiving corps was fully-stocked and producing but will now again have to deal with Will Fuller IV?s absence due to a hamstring issue. This total could potentially close as the lowest we?ve seen in a Houston game all season if it doesn?t hit 43.

Vic Fangio?s defensive scheming and his propensity for keeping games close are reasons to like the ?under? and take the points since Denver has only been blown out twice this season. Broncos LB Von Miller hopes to return from a sprained left MCL but will be a game-time decision. He was limited on Friday and reported feeling better but it doesn?t make much sense for him to risk a return if he can?t be himself out there. Even running the table would only get them to .500, so there will be no playoff run to be had. That?s not the case for Houston, which is now in great shape to at least host a playoff game as a division-winner and owns tiebreakers over Kansas City and New England. Corners Gareon Conley and Bradley Roby, both listed as questionable, are expected to play to try and keep Lock and Sutton from making inroads on the road. The Texans are 5-1 SU at home but have only covered in two of those games and are saddled with their largest spread of the season.

49ers at Saints (-2/44.5), 1 p.m. ET, FOX: This battle of 10-2 teams will certainly test the visiting Niners since they?re coming off their first road defeat and chose to pick themselves up in Florida at Bradenton?s IMG Academy, practicing there before leaving for New Orleans. They won?t have safety Jaquiski Tartt available but should get back tackle Joe Staley and have tight end George Kittle feeling healthier. DE Dee Ford is also likely due back, so you can count on San Francisco aggressively coming after Drew Brees, who will have to be at his best as he looks to post another solid offensive performance. The Saints have averaged 31.3 points in four wins since his return from a thumb injury but were held to a season-low nine points by an aggressive Falcons defense on Nov. 10. With guard Andrus Peat already out, it?s important that the Saints have tackle Terron Armstead out there to protect against the Nick Bosa-led pass rush.

The Saints will also have to figure out a way to contain San Francisco?s physical run blocking without linebackers Kiko Alonso and A.J. Klein, which has led to the signing of veteran Manti Te?o, who has been out all season after being dumped and going unsigned. Jimmy Garoppolo will have Emanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel available to punish the Saints defense if they shadow too much coverage Kittle?s way or double-team the All-Pro tight end, so this is going to be one terrific chess match. Marcell Harris, who forced a key fumble last week ? one of Jackson?s rare mistakes this season ? is expected to be Tartt?s replacement. Michael Thomas became the fastest to 400 career receptions ever on Thanksgiving night in helping beat the Falcons and finished 37 catches for 415 yards in November, earning him Player of the Month honors. It?s on him and Alvin Kamara to punish the 49ers if they?re too aggressive, but Brees will have to be decisive and quick with his reads. Holding the ball here wouldn?t go well.

Colts at Bucs (-3/47), 1 p.m. ET, CBS: Indianapolis is forced to run the table if it is going to reach the playoffs and will have to do so on the road since three of its final four games will be played in opposing stadiums. Considering how resilient they Colts have already been forced to be given Andrew Luck?s preseason retirement and a myriad of injuries that left Jacoby Brissett with limited options in the passing game, it?s worth wondering just how much they have left given the daunting task ahead. Frank Reich has to keep his group together. RB Marlon Mack will return to the mix and the Sarasota native will be performing in front of family and friends in a stadium he knows well considering he played there throughout his career at USF, but Brissett again won?t be able to count on top WR T.Y. Hilton. Brissett, also a Floridian from West Palm Beach, will square off with a vulnerable Bucs secondary hoping to get M.J. Stewart back from a knee injury. Jamel Dean, who left last week?s win over the Jags with a shoulder injury, should also be expected out there.

Tampa Bay has a chance to put together another big offensive game as Jameis Winston has produced four games where they?ve scored at least 28 points despite his turnover woes. Monitor whether CB Rock Ya-Sin and safety Malik Hooker get the nod to play in this game since CB Kenny Moore has already been ruled out. If you?re up for the shootout angle, Mother Nature won?t get in the way. Temperatures will be in the high 70?s and the sun will be in attendance to see how Winston?s latest rollercoaster ride turns out. Top targets Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are each already atop the 1,000-yard mark.

Chiefs at Patriots (-3/49), 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: Most eyes will be on this game in the late window as the Chiefs look to make one last push to see if they?ll be able to overcome this season?s hiccups and secure a much coveted first-round bye. Let?s face it, they?ll likely be looking at hosting likely No. 5 seed Buffalo on Wild Card weekend if they can?t pull off this upset. If they can? Well, you?ll surely again here that the Patriots are done if they go down here since that would also place an increased importance on its Dec. 22 home date with the Bills if the AFC East is suddenly in play.

After a listless Sunday night effort against Houston, Brady and the offense will look to keep pace with the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs, who may be forced to throw it around more than usual since RBs Damien Williams and Darrel Williams have been ruled out. LeSean McCoy will split carries with rookie Darwin Thompson and newly resigned Spencer Ware, so it will be interesting to see what the workload for the trio ends up being and whether pass protection suffers or if tight end Travis Kelce is forced to be more of a blocker than receiver.

Even all those variables put together don?t equal the uncertainty facing a Pats? offense that has Brady nursing a toe injury and the unit glaringly lacking a No. 1 threat after the offseason retirement of Rob Gronkowski and the failed Antonio Brown experiment. Brady has thrown six picks and 18 touchdowns while Mahomes has 20 TD passes against just two interceptions and is by far leading the more dynamic offense. New England?s defense will only be able to rely on its vocal fan base for a homefield edge here since the nasty weather that is so often a part of its success at home in December won?t be an issue here. Temperatures will be just above freezing but wind won?t be a factor. The Patriots? defense has been tremendous all season but has taken their production up even a few more notches at Gillette Stadium, giving up no more than 14 points in any of their five wins this season. New England tackle Marcus Cannon and Kansas City DE Frank Clark were both listed on the injury report due to illness but will likely play.

Steelers (-2/43.5) at Cardinals, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS: Kyler Murray comes off his team?s lowest-scoring game of his rookie season, a 34-7 rout at the hands of the Rams at home in which his offense was decisively shut down. He certainly hasn?t been the problem despite the 22-year-old top pick currently being mired in a five-game losing streak that represents the most losing he?s ever done in his career, so we?ll see how resilient he can be considering he?ll face a number of motivated, talented defenses to close out the final month of his first pro year. Monitor whether center A.Q. Shipley will play since he?s expected to be a game-time decision and would further complicate matters for Arizona.

Devlin Hodges beat the Chargers in his lone road start and got into a win in Cincinnati, so he?s proven capable on the road. After helping defeat the Browns last season, the task of helping fuel Pittsburgh?s unlikely playoff push. After being cut at the end of training camp and replaced by Mason Rudolph once he was ready to fill back in for an injured Ben Roethlisberger, Hodges, an undrafted rookie from Samford whose nicknamed is tied to being a champion duck caller, is thrust in the spotlight looking to pick up a win over the top QB of his rookie class, doing so on the road no less. The heavy lifting will likely be done by the Steelers? defense since RB James Conner and WR Juju Smith-Schuster remain sidelined, so expect a conservative game plan from Pittsburgh. It will help a ton to get center Maurkice Pouncey back from suspension. Corner Artie Burns should return too. The ?under? is 9-3 in Steelers games this season, prevailing in each of the last four contests.