CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 15
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Dec. 12

N.Y. JETS at BALTIMORE (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Ravens have covered 6 of last 7 this season, though are only 2-4 vs. line at home. Jets have won 4 of last 5 outright but still just 5-8 overall vs. number this term.
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.



Sunday, Dec. 15

TAMPA BAY at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
One-time old NFC Central rivals! Bucs have won last 3 outright in 2019 although they';ve only covered 2 of last 9 against the number. Bucs also now on 11-3 ?over? run since late 2018. Lions on 1-7 spread skid, also ?over? 8-5 this season.
Tech Edge: "Over? and slight to Bucs, based on ?totals? and team trends.


PHILADELPHIA at WASHINGTON (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Birds had covered 4 straight in series before falling short in opener. Philly though has won SU last five meetings.After Monday vs. G-Men, Eagles only 10-21-1 vs. spread in regular season since late in 2017 campaign. Skins have covered 5 of last 7 this season. Philly 11-4 ?over? last 15 on regular-season road.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?over? and Redskins, based on ?totals? and team trends.


CHICAGO at GREEN BAY (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Bears had dropped 7 of 8 vs. number prior to last Thursday?s win over Dallas. Chicago 1-5 vs. spread away from Solider Field this season. Pack 4-3 vs. spread at Lambeau this season and won opener at Soldier Field, as teams have split last 8 meetings vs. spread. Though ?over? last two in 2019, Bears still ?under? 15-5 last 20 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to ?under,? based on ?totals? trends.


NEW ENGLAND at CINCINNATI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Cincy has lost seven games by 8 points or fewer this season, which is why its spread mark (5-7-1) isn?t as bad as its SU mark (1-12). Bengals only 1-4-1 vs. points at home in 2019 but have dropped just one of last four vs. line. Pats only 1-4 vs. spread last five. Cincy ?under? 11-5-2 since late 2018, Belichick ?under? 17-5 last 22 in regular season.
Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.


HOUSTON at TENNESSEE (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Texans 8-3-1 vs. line last 12 away from NRG Stadium. Titans 6-1 SU and vs. line since Ryan Tannehill took over at QB, also ?over? 7-0 in those games. Houston ?over? 7-1 last 8 as true visitor. Note home team has covered last six in series.
Tech Edge: Titans and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


SEATTLE at CAROLINA (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Seahawks have been solid on road, 6-1 SU and 5-2 vs. line this season. Hawks also 3-1 vs. line last 4 overall this year. Panthers 0-5 SU last five TY, on 2-5 spread slide since late October. Carolina ?over? 10-4 since last 2018, Seattle ?over? 15-7 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: Seahawks and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


DENVER at KANSAS CITY (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
KC now on 8-game SU series win streak, with 7-1 spread mark in those games. Chiefs have only covered 2 of last 7 at Arrowhead but the last two have been wins. Broncos have covered 7 of last 9 this season, however, and ?under? 16-6 since mid 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to Broncos and ?under,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.


MIAMI at N.Y. GIANTS (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Back-to-back weeks for Dolphins at MetLife! Miami on uptick with covers in 7 of last 9 this season, including covers 4 of last 5 on road. G-Men 1-5 vs. line at home this season, 1-7 last 8 vs. number at MetLife since late 2018, and 2-6-1 last 9 as chalk. G-Men also on 13-8 ?over? run.
Tech Edge: Dolphins and ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


MINNESOTA at LA CHARGERS (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Bolts 1-6 vs. spread last 7 at Carson since late 2018. Chargers also ?under? 10-5 last 15 in reg season.
Tech Edge: Vikings and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


JACKSONVILLE at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Last Raiders? game in the Coliseum. Jags have been cold, losing and failing to cover last five this season, not closer than 17 in process. Raiders no covers last four this season but had covered 5 of 6 previously.
Tech Edge: Slight to Raiders, based on recent Jags woes.


CLEVELAND at ARIZONA (CBS, 4:05 p.m. ET)
Brownies 0-4 SU and vs. line last four on road this season, also surprising ?under? 5-1 away in 2019. Cards 5-3-1 vs. spread last 9 TY but have lost last six SU.
Tech Edge: Slight to Cards and ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


ATLANTA at SAN FRANCISCO (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Falcons a bit better lately with four covers in last six games. Atlanta ?under? 8-5 this season and 13-8 since mid 2018. Niners 8-4-1 vs. spread in 2019 though just 3-4-1 as chalk.
Tech Edge: Slight to Falcons and ?under,? based on recent and ?totals? trends.


L.A. RAMS at DALLAS (FOX, 4:25 p.m. ET)
Cowboys have lost last 3 SU but still 7-6 vs. line this season. Dallas ?over? 9-5 in regular season since late 2018. Rams actually on 11-4 uptick vs. spread in regular season since late 2018 and 7-1 vs. spread last 8 regular season away from Coliseum. LA also on 12-6 ?under? run in reg season since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Rams and slight to ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.


BUFFALO at PITTSBURGH (NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Now the Sunday night game. Bills on nice uptick with 4-1-1 spread mark last six this season, also 5-0-1 vs. spread away from Orchard Park. Steel however on 8-2-1 spread run this season. Buffalo ?under? 10-3 in 2019, 12-4 ?under? since late 2018, while Pitt ?under? 15-5 last 20 since late 2018.
Tech Edge: Rams and slight to ?under,? based on team and ?totals? trends.



Monday, Dec. 16

INDIANAPOLIS at NEW ORLEANS (ESPN, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Colts have only won and covered 2 of last 7 this season, but are 7-3 last 10 as dog. Indy also 7-1 last 8 away in regular season. Saints only 3-8 vs. spread last 11 at Superdome.
Tech Edge: Colts, based on team trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

Best spot bets for the NFL Week 15 odds: Lookahead could clip Eagles' wings
Jason Logan

The Eagles haven't covered in four straight games and could get caught looking past Washington this Sunday and to a huge showdown in Dallas in Week 16.

Only three games remain for each NFL team and by this point in the schedule, bookies know the league inside out. That?s why you?ve got to fight dirty when it comes to gaining an edge versus their odds, and part of that battle is singling out the best situational spots.

Senior industry analyst Jason Logan picks apart the Week 15 slate and gives you his top spot bets: letdowns, lookaheads, and schedule spots heading into the weekend.

LETDOWN SPOT: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT DETROIT LIONS (-3.5, 47.5)

The Buccaneers are riding high off a victory versus Indianapolis in Week 14, extending their winning streak to three games. Tampa Bay high steps into Motown to take on the lost Lions, who haven?t won since Week 11 and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games, including a 1-1 ATS mark with backup David Blough under center.

Tampa Bay got good news on QB Jameis Winston ? if you want to call it that ? concerning his injured thumb, and he?s cleared to play this Sunday a week removed from his fourth game with three or more interceptions. However, Winston?s top target WR Mike Evans will sit out Week 15 after suffering a hamstring injury last weekend.

The Bucs could not only get caught in a letdown at Detroit but might also face a sandwich spot with a possible lookahead to Houston at home on the short week next Saturday. Tampa Bay is also in a rare spot as a road favorite, having gone 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 games when giving the points as a visitor.

LOOKAHEAD SPOT: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+6, 40.5)

The Eagles finally got one up on the Dallas Cowboys, escaping with a comeback win at New York on Monday Night Football in Week 14. Philadelphia was missing opportunities to catch the Cowboys in the NFC East standings, with both teams unable to pick up wins in recent weeks.

The Eagles now sit tied with Dallas at 6-7 and have a huge matchup in Arlington next Sunday, but first face the Redskins in D.C. in Week 15. Washington has been playing well ? or at least well enough to cover three straight spreads and take victories over Detroit and Carolina before losing a tight game with Green Bay last Sunday.

Philadelphia has come up short for spread bettors in four straight games and is just 2-5 ATS as a favorite. This line opened Eagles -6 and some early action has pushed it to -5.5 at some books. As we?ve seen in outright losses to the Miami Dolphins, this team is not above falling flat on its face.

SCHEDULE SPOT: MIAMI DOLPHINS AT NEW YORK GIANTS (-3, 48)

If you bailed on betting the Dolphins after that dismal September, you missed out on one of the best bets in the NFL over the past two and a half months. With oddsmakers piling on the points and the public pushing those spreads even higher with money fading the Fins, Miami has cruised to a 7-2 ATS mark in its last nine games with big cushions at the sportsbook.

Miami faces a tough schedule spot in Week 15, making the trip to East Rutherford to face the Giants as field-goal pups. This is the second straight road game for the Dolphins ? staying in MetLife Stadium for a second straight week after losing a field-goal fest to the Jets in Week 14. This is also Miami?s third stop in the past four weeks and its sixth road test in the last nine games.

The G-Men showed some teeth against the Eagles Monday night, at least for the first half. Eli Manning will be back under center for what is likely his farewell tour and with a rematch with Philadelphia at home in Week 17, this might be his best chance to win one more in front of the Big Apple faithful.


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NFL's Top ATS Teams:

t1. Steelers 9-4 ATS
t1. Rams 9-4
t3. Bills 8-4-1 ATS
t3. Niners 8-4-1
t5. Chiefs 8-5 ATS
t5. Broncos 8-5
t5. Saints 8-5
t5. Packers 8-5
t9. Titans 7-5-1 ATS
t9. Cardinals 7-5-1


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NFL's Worst ATS Teams:

t31. Bears 4-9 ATS
t31. Eagles 4-9
30. Bucs 4-8-1 ATS
29. Chargers 4-7-2 ATS
t23. Lions 5-8 ATS
t23. Falcons 5-8
t23. Giants 5-8
t23. Bengals 5-8
t23. Jets 5-8
t23. Jaguars 5-8

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Josh Inglis


RECENCY BIAS

Two weeks ago, we missed the Darius Slayton Over by six yards and stayed away with Uncle Eli under center on Monday. Big mistake. Slayton saw a team-high eight targets and accounted for 75.9 percent of his team?s total air yards even with Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard in the lineup.

This week, Eli Manning and the Giants host the Miami Dolphins, who are giving up 292 yards passing a game over the last three weeks - the league?s third-worst mark. Slayton has averaged over six catches for 96.5 yards in his last four outings, which is almost one-third of the Giants? entire season to date.

We don?t mind backing Slayton's quarterback in a match that we think will have a welcoming New York crowd at MetLife Stadium for their former starter. We will back Slayton?s receiving total of 69.5 yards and taking the Over.


DIVISIONAL FIRST-HALF

The Green Bay Packers pace the league in first-half points scored at home at 16.7 per game. Lambeau?s inhabitants have won each of their last three first halves as hosts (3-0 ATS) and are 5-2 ATS versus the first-half spreads at home this year. Green Bay just runs a better offense at home as it has the fifth-best offense (yards per game) at home but rank 31st in yards per game on the road.

The Chicago Bears will stroll into the Cheese Factory on Sunday with their 29th-ranked road offense (yards per game). Mitch Trubisky & Co. are scoring 7.3 first-half points on the road this year and have put up just 10 points over their last three road first halves - zero points in two of those three contests.

We?re backing the Pack and taking Green Bay first-half spread at -3.


RAVENS TO REST LATE?

Coming off a big win in Buffalo last week, the Baltimore Ravens will take on the New York Jets who could be without their best player, safety Jamal Adams. The Ravens have some bumps and bruises they need to tend to in the short week as well. Lamar Jackson is dealing with a quad injury but will start while TE Mark Andrews returned to practice on Tuesday but is still banged up.

There?s a real chance that the Ravens jump out to a big lead and hold out some of their players later in the game versus the Jets. Baltimore leads the league in first-quarter and first-half points scored, so the table could be easy to set.

The Jets aren?t scaring anyone these days as they have played the four-worst DVOA defenses in five of their last seven games and have seen five of the bottom-seven DVOA offenses over that time as well. But the Jets haven?t played the league?s worst offense this year because that would be impossible. That prestigious title belongs to the J-E-T-S themselves.

We are taking the first-half as the highest-scoring half in this Ravens-Jets matchup, as we hope the Ravens will rest players heading into the second half on the short week versus an inferior opponent.


RUNAWAY MAGIC

Do you know which quarterback had the most rushing yards last week? Obviously, it was Ryan Fitzpatrick, who ran for 65 yards on seven carries and led his team in rushing. The Miami QB has rushed for 167 yards and three TDs since Week 7 and topped 22 yards rushing in three of his last five games.

In their last four games, the New York Giants are allowing opposing QBs to take off 4.5 times a game and have given up two rushing TDs. Miami is throwing the ball nearly 40 times a game over its last three as the Dolphins? running game is pretty much nonexistent, giving Fitzpatrick plenty of chances to gain a few yards on the ground.

We?re waiting for the Fitzpatrick rushing total to open and will pounce on the Over on any number below 26 yards and may sprinkle the rushing TD as well.


THE THIN RECEIVING LINE

There?s thin, and then there?s the Philadelphia Eagles? WR depth thin. Alshon Jeffrey has been put on the IR leaving Nelson Agholor, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside and Greg Ward as their only receivers and Agholor isn't guaranteed to dress for Sunday?s game against the Washington Redskins with a foot issue.

Washington is allowing 376 yards at home this year which has translated to 25.7 points per game, but recently Bill Callahan has whittled those numbers down to 328 yards per game and 19 points since Week 12. This game could feature a run-heavy approach from both offenses which cut into each teams? total plays.

With just as many tight ends as receivers, we are going to fade the Eagles? team total and hit the Under on 23.5 - a number Washington hasn?t allowed an opponent to top in three straight games.


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NFL Betting Stats Heading Into Week 15:

Road Teams: 116-87-5 ATS
Home Teams: 87-116-5 ATS

Favorites: 91-112-5 ATS
Underdogs: 112-91-5 ATS

Home Faves: 51-76-5 ATS
Home Dogs: 36-40 ATS

Road Faves: 40-36 ATS
Road Dogs: 76-51-5 ATS

O/U: 100-108

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday?s 6-pack

Too-early 2020 baseball over/under in totals:

? Astros 99.5

? Dodgers 98.5

? Twins 90.5

? Padres 84.5

? Giants 68.5

? Mariners/Royals 66.5

Quote of the Day:
?I like Kiffin a lot. He?s a fun interview and honestly one of the smartest offensive minds out there. He?ll make Ole Miss entertaining again ? and that?s saying something considering its last game was lost due to a dog pissing celebration.?
Ben Kercheval, CBSsports.com

Thursday?s quiz
Where did Lamar Jackson play his college football?

Wednesday?s quiz
Steve Spurrier coached the Washington Redskins for two seasons.

Tuesday?s quiz
Of the 32 NFL stadiums, LA Coliseum and Oakland Coliseum have hosted a World Series.

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Thursday?s List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud??

13) Los Angeles Angels signed 3B Anthony Rendon to a 7-year, $245M contact Wednesday night; Angels have a potent lineup, but they still lack pitching.

12) Want to know why fantasy baseball is increasingly popular? I?ll repeat something that I posted yesterday; it tells a story of why it is difficult to be a fan of a small market team:

2020 Bronx Bombers:
? Gerrit Cole, $36M
? Giancarlo Stanton, $26M
? Masahiro Tanaka, $23M
? Aroldis Chapman $17.2M

That adds up to $101.5M??.for four guys.

Oakland A?s made the playoffs the last two years; their ENTIRE payroll last year?

$92,178,333

11) If you and I play checkers, and you start wth 12 checkers but I start with 24, then I?m going to win most of the time, even if you?re smarter than me.

Gerrit Cole is going to make $1,090,909 per start next year; Oakland?s five starting pitchers LY made a total of roughly $12,500,000 for the whole season.

10) So having your own fantasy team where there are no salaries and you compete against people you know eliminates a lot of that BS and makes the summer more fun. At least if you have a cruddy season, you can blame yourself, instead of a ridiculous system that rewards the teams with the most money to spend.

9) 84 basketball players left college early LY and declared for the NBA Draft; only 44 of them were taken in the draft.

8) College football stuff:
? Colorado State hired former BC coach Steve Addazio as its new football coach.
? UNLV hired Oregon OC Marcus Arroyo as its new football coach.
? Florida Atlantic hired former Florida State coach Willie Taggart.

7) Baseball stuff:
? Mets signed P Michael Wacha to a 1-year deal, $3M deal (with incentives).
? Dodgers signed P Blake Treinen for one year, $10M.
? Blue Jays gave P Tanner Roark $24M for two years.

6) Adam Jones signed an $8M deal to play baseball for the Orix Buffaloes in Japan; Jones has played 14 years in the majors, mostly with the Orioles.

5) I?d track the movement of college football coaches on here, but those guys are nomadic- they constantly change jobs, especially assistants. Coaches? wives must be experts at packing.

4) There have been 12 NBA games this season where a player had 20+ points and 20+ rebounds; Detroit?s Andre Drummond has five of those 12 games.

3) Diamondbacks/Padres will play two regular season games in Mexico City April 18-19; the first regular season MLB games in Mexico City. Games had previously been played in Monterrey.

2) Bad beat of the week: NBA?s Atlanta Hawks (+8.5) led Miami by 6 points with 0:59 left in regulation Tuesday night, but they didn?t cover. Seriously.

Miami scored the next 22 points and won by 14 in OT. It was the NBA?s widest margin of victory in an OT game since October 31, 2009, when Philadelphia beat the Knicks, 141-127.

1) Good trivia; Denver rookie QB Drew Lock plays against the Chiefs this week; Lock?s dad Andy was the starting right guard for the Missouri Tigers in 1989, when KC coach Andy Reid was his offensive line coach. 30 years later, they cross paths again.

 

[Cnotes53]

TNF - Jets at Ravens
December 11, 2019
By Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK
The Jets (5-8 SU, 5-8 ATS) rebounded from an embarrassing loss to the previous winless Bengals to sneak past the rival Dolphins, 22-21. New York won for the fourth time in the last five games, but time will likely run out on a long-shot playoff berth following a 1-7 start. In spite of allowing 21 points, the Jets held the Dolphins out of the end zone as Miami settled for seven field goals.

New York used the newly-instituted pass interference challenge to its advantage after an incomplete pass by Sam Darnold on third down and 18 at the Dolphins? 46 yard-line. After review, Miami cornerback Nik Needham interfered with Jets? receiver Vyncint Smith to give New York a fresh set of downs. Darnold completed a 12-yard pass after the penalty to get the Jets in field goal range as Sam Ficken booted the game-winning kick from 44 yards out. The Dolphins managed the cover as five-point underdogs, making Darnold 0-4 ATS in four career starts against Miami.

The Ravens (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) continue to be a runaway train as they are currently on a path for home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Baltimore picked up its ninth consecutive victory last Sunday in a 24-17 triumph at Buffalo as 6 ?-point favorites. The Ravens limited an opponent to 17 points or fewer for the seventh time during this nine-game hot streak, while allowing only one touchdown to the Bills, which came midway through the fourth quarter.

MVP candidate Lamar Jackson threw three touchdown passes, but was held to less than 170 yards passing for the third consecutive game. In the last six contests, Jackson has tossed 17 touchdowns to go along with no interceptions, while the Ravens? quarterback enters Week 15 as one of nine players in the NFL that has rushed for over 1,000 yards.

GOING STREAKING
The Ravens are headed to the playoffs for the eighth time in 12 seasons since John Harbaugh took over as head coach. Prior to this season, Baltimore never won more than four straight regular season games under Harbaugh, as this nine-game winning streak is the longest since capturing five victories in a row under Brian Billick in 2006. The 2000 Super Bowl championship team finished that season on an 11-game hot streak (including three wins in the playoffs), while covering 10 times in that stretch.

TO BARK OR NOT TO BARK
The Jets have not been a reliable team to back in the role of a favorite this season by failing to cash in four opportunities when laying points. Obviously, they are not favored on Thursday against the Ravens, but New York has brought home the cash in its last three chances when listed as an underdog.

The caveat there is the Jets did this against the likes of the Redskins, Raiders, and Bengals. In the other six instances as a ?dog, Adam Gase?s team has compiled a 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS mark with the lone upset win coming against the Cowboys in Week 6.

THURSDAY NIGHT FINALE
This marks the final Thursday night contest of 2019 as underdogs have posted a solid 10-4 ATS mark. Last week, the Bears became the sixth ?dog to win outright on a Thursday night in their home victory over the Cowboys, but the largest ?dog to pick up a victory in this scenario is Tampa Bay (+6 ?) in Week 2 at Carolina.

Double-digit favorites have put together a 3-0 SU and 1-2 ATS mark on Thursdays, as the Patriots (-17) were the only heavy chalk to cash back in Week 6 over the Giants, 35-14.

The Ravens have won three of the last four Thursday contests, but lost in their previous Thursday affair at Cincinnati last season. The Jets dropped a 21-17 decision at Cleveland in its last Thursday matchup in 2018, snapping a modest two-game winning streak on Thursdays dating back to 2016.

SERIES HISTORY
These AFC squads haven?t met since 2016 when the Jets held off the Ravens at Met Life Stadium, 24-16 as 2 ?-point favorites. Baltimore squandered an early 10-0 lead as Jets? running back Matt Forte scored a pair of touchdowns and racked up 154 all-purpose yards. The Ravens have won the last three matchups at M&T Bank Stadium dating back to 2007 with the most recent victory coming in 2013 by a 19-3 count.

TOTAL TALK
Oddsmakers sent out an opening total of 44 ? and the number is holding steady at most betting shops but a few have pushed their number to 45.

Neither team has shown a strong total lean this season with Baltimore owning a 7-6 ?over? mark and New York holding a 7-6 record to the ?under? through 13 games.

Total bettors looking for a Thursday Night Football angle could be scratching their head as well, with the ?under? going 8-6 this season and the averaged combined score was 41 PPG.

Chris David of VegasInsider.com dug into those numbers further and provided his thoughts on the opener for Week 14.

He said, ?The Jets have played two primetime games this season and the ?under? has produced a 2-0 record and New York was the guilty party in both efforts, scoring a combined three points. Expecting New York to put forth a great offensive effort on a short week versus a quality team on the road is a stretch in my opinion. The Jets have only played three winning teams all season, all coming in the division and the offense mustered up 16 points in Week 1 against the Bills before the unit was blanked twice by the Patriots.?

To David?s point, the Jets scored 34 points at Washington in Week 11 but they only managed 11.8 PPG in five other road contests and that number drops to 9 PPG if you take out the 14 points the defense scored in their 30-14 loss at New England in Week 3. Despite the inept offense, the Jets own a 4-2 ?over? mark on the road and that?s attributed to New York?s poor defensive numbers (25.8 PPG).

Will Baltimore?s top-ranked scoring offense (33.1 PPG) light up New York? David isn?t sold on a power surge from this host this Thursday.

?Baltimore has had a great season but if you want to nitpick its hot run, the team has been stronger on the road and it has gone through the motions at home against inferior teams. In two spots listed as double-digit home favorites, the Ravens only scored 23 in each contest against the Cardinals and Bengals. I believe Baltimore will get four to five scores in this game but knowing the Jets own the second-best rushing defense has me thinking field goals instead of touchdowns. My first lean would be to the Ravens Team Total Under (29 ?) and I believe we?ll see a 23-10, 26-13 win by the Ravens,? added David.

HANDICAPPER?S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson checks in with an analysis on the close calls that have benefited Baltimore this season, ?Five wins this season for the Ravens have come by seven or fewer points as there have been many close calls despite the league-leading +194 scoring differential and last week?s win in Buffalo featured minimal production with only 257 net yards and a few missed officiating calls were in Baltimore?s favor.?

This is the third time this season that the Ravens are listed as a double-digit favorite, but Nelson points out that hasn?t fared well for them, ?This spread is currently priced as the second-largest for the Ravens under Harbaugh who took over in 2008 with the only exception a 2011 game vs. the Colts started by Dan Orlovsky. Despite the great success this season, Baltimore has lost six consecutive games against the spread as a home favorite of six or more points. The Jets have been a double-digit underdog three times this season and lost those games by a combined score of 94-20.?

LINE MOVEMENT
The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas opened the Ravens as 14 ?-point favorites on Monday. That line has remained steady at the Westgate, while the total sits at 45. The weather should not be a factor on Thursday as game time temperatures are expected to be in the mid-30?s with clear skies.

 

[Cnotes53]

301NY JETS -302 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game in the last 3 seasons.


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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 15

Thursday, December 12

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NY JETS (5 - 8) at BALTIMORE (11 - 2) - 12/12/2019, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 34-17 ATS (+15.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


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NFL

Week 15

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Trend Report
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Thursday, December 12

Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games at home
Baltimore is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing NY Jets
Baltimore is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Jets
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

New York Jets
NY Jets is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games on the road
NY Jets is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Baltimore
NY Jets is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing Baltimore
NY Jets is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
NY Jets is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore


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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 15

Jets (5-8) @ Ravens (11-2)? Baltimore won its last nine games, covering six of last seven; Ravens are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite, 1-4 TY. Three of their last four games stayed under the total. Baltimore was held under 300 yards in last two games (vs 49ers/Bills), converting only 6-21 on 3rd down. Jets won four of their last five games, after a 1-7 start; Gang Green gave up only two TD?s on 32 drives their last three games, but Miami tried eight FG?s against them LW. Ravens won 7 of last 8 series games, with favorites 7-1 ATS; Jets won last meeting 24-16 (-2) three years ago, lost last five visits here (1-4 ATS), with last visit in ?13. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 2-9-1 ATS; AFC East road underdogs are 5-4-1 ATS.



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NFL
Dunkel

Week 15


Thursday, December 12

NY Jets @ Baltimore

Game 301-302
December 12, 2019 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
125.103
Baltimore
148.249
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 23
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 14 1/2
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-14 1/2); Over


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Tech Trends - Week 15
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Dec. 12

N.Y. JETS at BALTIMORE (FOX, 8:20 p.m. ET)
Ravens have covered 6 of last 7 this season, though are only 2-4 vs. line at home. Jets have won 4 of last 5 outright but still just 5-8 overall vs. number this term.
Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.


********************************


Jets' Powell, Griffin, Poole out vs. Ravens
December 11, 2019
By The Associated Press

NEW YORK (AP) The New York Jets will take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in Baltimore without some of their key playmakers.

Running back Bilal Powell, tight end Ryan Griffin, cornerback Brian Poole and offensive linemen Chuma Edoga were all ruled out Wednesday for the game Thursday night because of injuries.

Star safety Jamal Adams is doubtful and also unlikely to play because of a sprained ankle that kept him out of New York's win over Miami last Sunday - the first game he missed in his three-year NFL career.

Powell is dealing with an ankle injury, suffered during the Jets' winning drive against the Dolphins, as well as the flu. He ran for 74 yards on 19 carries while starting in place of Le'Veon Bell, who was sidelined with the flu. Bell is healthy and is expected to play against the Ravens.

Griffin also injured an ankle early in the game against Miami. He had developed a good rapport with quarterback Sam Darnold with a team-leading five touchdown catches this season, and recently received a three-year contract extension from New York.

Poole will miss his second straight game after suffering a concussion two weeks ago at Cincinnati.

Edoga has sat out the last two games with a knee injury.

Wide receiver Demaryius Thomas (hamstring/knee), rookie defensive lineman Quinnen Williams (neck) and cornerback Arthur Maulet (calf) are doubtful and unlikely to play.

Defensive end Henry Anderson, left tackle Kelvin Beachum, running back/wide receiver Ty Montgomery, nose tackle Steve McLendon, safety Matthias Farley and defensive lineman Nathan Shepherd are all questionable.

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Josh Inglis


LES COUSINS NONDANGEREUX

If you would have said that Kirk Cousins would be in the Top-10 in MVP odds after Week 4, you would have been laughed out of the room. Fast forward to Week 15 and the Minnesota Vikings quarterback has his team at 9-4, battling for a division title and sits second in QB ratintg. This week, Cousins and the Vikes head to Los Angeles to take on the Chargers.

The Chargers have been playing exceptional pass defense of late as they have the second-best passing yards against oveer their last three games and have held Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr and Patrick Mahomes to just 561 yards combined and three touchdowns in three of their last five games. The numbers look even better when you look at all their games since November: 171.4 yards passing and only one opposing QB to throw for more than one TD.

Cousins is 3-4 SU on the road this year and has a completion percentage 17 points lower on the road than at home. Even with Adam Thielen returning to practice after missing five games, we are taking the Under on Cousins? passing total of 273.5, a number he is 3-4 O/U on the road this year.


JAGUARS PLAYING DEAD

Last week the Jaguars and their 31st-ranked run defense lost their best linebacker and leading tackler in Myles Jack. This week they lost another linebacker in Quincy Williams who is the fourth linebacker that Jacksonville has had to put on the shelf. The Jaguars have just flat-out quit defensively and should be faded for another three weeks.

This week?s running back who gets to pad his stats against a run defense that is allowing 163 yards rushing a game of late and 5.2 yards per carry is Josh Jacobs. The Oakland running back missed Week 14 with a shoulder problem but reports are that ROY contender has a good shot of starting this week. Things could obviously change between now and Sunday, but in a dream matchup versus a soft Jags? D, we are going to monitor the situation closely and may even get a little discount on his total in what will be a higher risk/reward bet.

Jacobs needs just 246 yards rushing to top Saquon Barkley?s rookie-of-the-year mark of 1,307 yards (although Barkley added another 700-plus yards receiving) and he currently sits at -350 to win the Offensive ROY. We like the matchup more than anything and hope Jacobs? recent injury gives us a better number on his rushing total. We are waiting for the Raiders RB to practice Thursday and Friday with no setbacks and will be riding the Over on his' rushing total on any number below 70 yards as we think 12-15 rushes is a realistic workload. If Jacobs does miss Week 15, DeAndre Washington will get the chance to carve up the Jaguars.


BREESIN? PAST THE COLTS

The Indianapolis Colts have lost five of their last six with their only win coming against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Indy has been allowing the second-most passing yards since Week 12 (300 yards) and got torched for 467 yards through the air last week versus Jameis Winston. This week, the Colts will hit the primetime lights of Monday night and face the New Orleans Saints on the road where their defense has let four opposing QBs to surpass 295 yards this year.

Drew Brees is coming off a 349-yard performance where he lobbed five touchdowns in what was the NFL?s game of the year last week versus the 49ers. Since coming back from injury in Week 8, Brees is averaging 287 yards passing and that number jumps up to 330 yards a gamr in his four games in New Orleans.

We like Brees to keep his foot on the throttle as the Saints need to get a playoff game at home, even if it means the No. 2 seed. Jump on Brees? Over 298.5 passing yards, a total he has eclipsed in four of his five home games this year.


THURSDAY NIGHT QUICKIE

Don?t have time to watch all the Thursday night game? The Jets will do that to you, no worries. It?s a good thing that the Baltimore Ravens lead the league in first-quarter scoring at 8.3 points per the opening frame. The Jets will likely be missing a handful of starters on the defensive side of the ball as safety Jamal Adams, DT Quinnen Williams and a pair of starting defensive backs are all doubtful.

This Jets? defense has seen Miami (twice), Cincinnati, Oakland, Washington, the Giants and Jacksonville in consecutive weeks ? that?s five of the six-worst offenses. New York might be down 10 before it knows what hit them. If you're looking for a quick banger, take the Ravens -3.5 first-quarter spread.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 12
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NYJ at BAL 08:20 PM

BAL -17.0

O 44.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Ravens rout Jets to clinch AFC North
December 12, 2019

BALTIMORE (AP) Lamar Jackson threw five touchdown passes, scurried into the NFL record book and guided the Baltimore Ravens to their second straight AFC North title and 10th consecutive victory, 42-21 over the New York Jets on Thursday night.

Baltimore (12-2) took control with touchdowns on its first three possessions and Jackson made it 28-7 in the third quarter with a 24-yard scoring pass to rookie Marquise Brown following a turnover by New York (5-9).

That was enough to assure the Ravens another division title after they clinched a playoff berth four days earlier in Buffalo. With a victory next week in Cleveland, the Ravens will be assured the top seed in the AFC, a distinction that comes with home-field advantage leading up to the Super Bowl.

Jackson ran for 86 yards (on eight carries) to break Michael Vick's single-season record for a quarterback. Jackson has 1,108 yards rushing. Vick had 1,039 for Atlanta in 2006.

On this night, however, Jackson did most of the damage with his right arm. He completed 15 of 23 passes for 212 yards and increased his NFL-leading total of touchdown passes to 33, tying the franchise season record set by Vinny Testaverde in 1996.

After Jackson's pass to Brown, many in the crowd of 70,545 chanted ''MVP! MVP!'' There was a reprise of the mantra late in the third quarter when Jackson hit Seth Roberts for a 33-yard touchdown. The score came after Jackson connected with tight end Mark Andrews for a 36-yard completion on a fourth-and-1 from the Baltimore 29.

Jackson celebrated the first down by dancing downfield with his arm pointing toward the New York goal line. Not once throughout his exceptional performance did Jackson show any sign of being slowed by a quadriceps injury that made headlines in the days leading up to the game.

The Jets, meanwhile, hardly looked like a team that had won four of their previous five games. Sam Darnold threw two touchdown passes to Jamison Crowder but the second-year quarterback also tossed an interception and lost a fumble.

The first turnover ruined a potential scoring drive near the end of the first half and the latter miscue immediately preceded Jackson's TD pass to Brown.

Darnold went 18 for 32 for 218 yards.

The Jets' other touchdown came on a blocked punt in the fourth quarter.

New York's defense came in ranked second in the NFL against the rush, but the unit was no match for the league's top running game. The Ravens amassed 218 yards on the ground, including 76 by Mark Ingram.

Jackson broke Vick's rushing mark on Baltimore's opening possession while guiding the Ravens on an 84-yard march. The dual-threat quarterback ran three times for 27 yards and completed all three of his passes for 41 yards before Ingram ran in from the New York 6.

Jackson supplanted Vick in the record book with a 5-yard run from the Jets 11.

It was more of the same on Baltimore's second drive. A 29-yard run by Ingram and a 25-yard impromptu jaunt out of the pocket by Jackson preceded a 5-yard touchdown pass to rookie Miles Boykin.

Darnold threw a 4-yard touchdown pass to get New York to 13-7 before the Ravens rolled to their third TD in three possessions. A 43-yard pass interference penalty against the Jets set up a 1-yard touchdown pass to Andrews, and Ingram tacked on a 2-point conversion.

INJURIES

Jets: Before the game, New York placed TE Ryan Griffin (ankle) on IR. ... S Jamal Adams (ankle) and CB Brian Poole (concussion) were inactive. .

Ravens: OT Ronnie Stanley (concussion) was inactive.

UP NEXT

Jets: Another game against an AFC North foe looms Sunday for New York, at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Ravens: The last team to beat Baltimore was the Browns, 40-25 on Sept. 29.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday, December 15, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Seattle Seahawks Carolina Panthers
1:00 PM New England Patriots Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Detroit Lions
1:00 PM Chicago Bears Green Bay Packers
1:00 PM Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs
1:00 PM Miami Dolphins New York Giants
1:00 PM Houston Texans Tennessee Titans
1:00 PM Philadelphia Eagles Washington Redskins
4:05 PM Cleveland Browns Arizona Cardinals
4:05 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Oakland Raiders
4:05 PM Minnesota Vikings Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Los Angeles Rams Dallas Cowboys
4:25 PM Atlanta Falcons San Francisco 49ers
8:20 PM Buffalo Bills Pittsburgh Steelers

Monday, December 16, 2019
Time (ET) Away Home
8:15 PM Indianapolis Colts New Orleans Saints


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nfl december opinions and best bets: All based on 5 units

date........................... W-l-t............ %................ Units

12/12/2019...................2-0-0.........100.00%.........+10.00
12/09/2019...................1-1-0..........50.00%...........-0.50
12/08/2019................12-12-2..........50.00%..........-6.00
12/01/2019..................7-10-1..........41.18%..........-20.00

totals.........................22-23-3..........48.88%..........-16.50


best bets:

Date........................ats.............units. ............o/u...............units.............totals

12/12/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.00..............1 - 0.............+5.00..............+10.00
12/09/2019...............1 - 0.............+5.50..............0 - 1..............-5.50...............-0.50
12/08/2019...............6 - 3.............+13.50............4 - 4..............-2.00...............+11.50
12/01/2019...............6 - 6..............-3.00..............1 - 4..............-17.00..............-20.00

totals.......................13 - 9.............+21.00...........6 - 9..............-19.50...............+1.50

 

[Cnotes53]

tout site





OF MOSTERT AND MEN

San Francisco running back Raheem Mostert has separated himself with the 49ers RBBC and has been given the most opportunities of late. Niners coach Kyle Shannahan has said the RB has deserved the extra attention in the offense as Mostert has four touchdowns in his last three games.

Mostert saw 40 of his team?s 63 offensive snaps and had the only two RB red zone carries last week. This also comes on the heels of him seeing 74 percent of the offensive snaps in Week 13. This week the Monster will face a middle-of-the-pack Atlanta rush defense that doesn?t have anything to play for.

We are backing Mostert to score a rushing TD for the fourth straight game.

 

[Cnotes53]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 15
December 13, 2019
By Micah Roberts

There?s a monster three-team parlay brewing in Las Vegas for Week 15 that every recreational bettor seems to have a piece of that is going to hit the sportsbooks hard with 6/1 payouts (Bet $100 to win $600). Of course, there?s also the 13/5 (Bet $100 to win $260) two-teamer that is going to cash along with it, teasers, straight bets and the three teams being the root to other teams in larger parlays.

Station Casinos and the South Point, sportsbooks that deal a large percentage of their handle to parlays, both have the Rams, Seahawks, and Patriots as their top public plays. CG Technology books are also seeing the same betting patterns.

?They?re laying -1 with the Rams and taking +2 with Dallas and +107 with the Cowboys money-line,? said CG Technology sportsbook director Tony DiTommaso. It?s our most heavily bet game of the week and we have about a 3-to-1 ratio in ticket counts taking the Rams. Only the Seahawks at a 7-to-2 ticket count ratio is more on-sided,?

DiTommaso said the risk so far isn?t too bad (about $50,000 long) so far because of taking one large wager on the Cowboys.

It?s easy to understand the bettor's mindset with the Rams as the Cowboys ride a three-game losing streak with none of their six wins being against winning teams. It?s a bet-against situation that makes the wager justified and strengthened furthermore by the Rams laying a short price after convincing wins and covers in their last two games.

It appeared the Rams as we knew them were dead after a 45-6 beat-down at home by the Ravens on Monday Night Football in Week 12 for all to see. But the Rams of the past two weeks look similar to last season's Super Bowl squad. Quarterback Jared Goff looks sharp again, his receivers are healthy and running back Todd Gurley is no longer on the load management program and has been unleashed the past two weeks with wins against the Cardinals and Seahawks.

Caesars Palace sportsbook director Jeff Davis said their top public plays this week is ?Rams, Rams, and Rams.?

One last note about the Rams that further justifies a wager on them by many bettors is going 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight road games.

The Seahawks wager this week has similar reasons as the Rams side. It?s a bet against the Panthers who have lost five straight (1-4 ATS) and a bet for the Seahawks coming off a loss. The Seahawks have won six of seven on the road this season (5-2 ATS) and are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has gone from Seahawks -6 to -6.5.

The public Patriots support is kind of a surprise because they?ve failed to cover the spread in their last three games. Joe Public usually holds a grudge against teams like that. But what we have here is the 1-12 Bengals facing the Patriots who have lost their last two. Tom Brady losing three straight starts? It?s happened only once in his career and that was way back in 2002 when he lost four in a row.

In addition to the public jumping all over the Patriots, sharp money also laid the early number.

?We had sharp action laying the Patriots at -9.5, the Titans at -3 (vs. Texans), the Steelers laying -1.5 (vs. Bills), the Browns -2.5 (at Arizona) and the Falcons +11 (at San Francisco),? DiTommaso said. ?They also laid -9.5 with the Chiefs, but another group immediately bet +10 with the Broncos after we moved it up.?

Station Casinos is the only book showing Falcons +11.

Davis at Caesars Palace said he?s had a couple of games with sharp groups on opposite sides such as the Texans-Titans battle for the AFC South lead and the Bears-Packers (-4.5) game. He?s also seen large action in the Raiders last game at Oakland against the Jaguars (+7 -120) and the over in the Titans game which has run from 49.5 to 51.5.

The Eagles are tied with the Cowboys for the NFC East lead at 6-7 so it?s an important road game at Washington.

?A really sharp guy laid -4.5 with the Eagles and when we got to -6 we found some Redskins money,? DiTommaso said.

Most of Las Vegas is dealing the Eagles at the dead numbers of -5 and -5.5.

Be sure to check the weather report before betting teams at places like Kansas City, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh.

 

[Cnotes53]

Gridiron Angles - Week 15
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
-- The Panthers are 12-0 ATS (14.29 ppg) since Sep 18, 2011 as a dog coming off a road loss where they failed to cover.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
-- The Chargers are 0-12-1 ATS (-7.92 ppg) since Oct 07, 2012 coming off a road win where they scored at least 30 points.

TOP NFL PLAYER ATS TREND:
-- The Eagles are 0-8 ATS (-11.94 ppg) since Dec 17, 2017 coming off a game where Carson Wentz threw at least 40 passes.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
-- The Patriots are 0-11-1 OU (-9.96 ppg) since Oct 09, 2016 off a loss.

TOP NFL PLAYER OU TREND:
-- The Buccaneers are 8-0 OU (8.81 ppg) since Oct 28, 2018 coming off a game where Jameis Winston threw at least 40 passes.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
-- The Lions are 11-0 OU (8.55 ppg) since Dec 24, 2006 as a dog coming off a game as a dog that went under the total by at least 14 points.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
-- The Steelers are 0-20 OU (-7.05 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 when they threw for less than 215 yards last game.

SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:
PLAY AGAINST: Teams which had at least 19 third down attempts last game and made fewer 50% of those teams are 52-72-7 ATS. Active against Philadelphia.

NFL BIBLE ATS ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Chargers are 15-0 ATS (+10.13 ppg) as a dog when they are off a win as a favorite and they are averaging more than 27 points per game over their last three games.

NFL BIBLE O/U ACTIVE TREND:
-- The Seahawks are 0-12 OU (-12.08 ppg) as a road favorite when they allowed at least five third down conversions in each of their last two games.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 15 betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather and Pros vs Joes
Patrick Everson

Dalvin Cook is working through a chest injury, but he's expected to play for Minnesota at the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday. If Cook sits out, that's worth a half-point to the line at The SuperBook.

NFL Week 15 has some banged-up running backs, though that?s not impacting the line in all cases. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.

Injury Impact

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Running back Dalvin Cook (chest) is expected to play Sunday?s road game against the Los Angeles Chargers. ?Cook would be worth a half-point if he was to be out,? Osterman said. Minnesota is already down to -1.5, after opening -3.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS: Wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) will miss his fourth straight game, but Osterman said that was factored into the opening line for Pittsburgh?s home game against Buffalo. Tight end Vance McDonald (concussion) is out, and running back James Conner (shoulder) is questionable after missing the last three games.

?Conner is worth a half-point if he plays. Nothing for McDonald.? The Steelers opened 1-point favorites in the Sunday nighter, got bet up to -2.5 early in the week, then back to -1 Friday.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS: Several defensive players are either out or questionable against Atlanta, including cornerback Richard Sherman and end Dee Ford. ?The 49ers? defense is why we?ve seen that line come down a half-point.? San Francisco is giving 10.5 points.

OAKLAND RAIDERS: Running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder) is again questionable as the Raiders prepare to host Jacksonville. Jacobs sat out last week?s home loss to Tennessee. ?Jacobs would be worth a half-point.? Oakland is a 7-point favorite.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Wideout Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) is questionable at Cincinnati, which The SuperBook pegs worth a half-point if he sits. The Patriots are laying 10 points.


Weather Watch

CHICAGO AT GREEN BAY: It?s gonna be really damn cold Sunday on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field. The high is 18 degrees, with winds of 10-15 mph that will surely make it feel chillier still. ?The total has come down a half-point. But that total was put up on the low side initially, assuming that it would be really cold in Green Bay.? The total opened at 41 and ticked to 40.5.

DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: The forecast calls for a 70 percent chance of snow and a high of just 28 degrees, and a modest 10 mph breeze probably won?t make it feel any warmer. ?The total has come down 1.5 points? from the opener of 46.5. The first move was actually up to 47, but the total dipped to 45 by Thursday night.

MIAMI AT NEW YORK GIANTS: The weather generally looks OK for MetLife Stadium, though the wind could approach 20 mph, prompting The SuperBook to move the total from 47.5 to 46.5.

BUFFALO AT PITTSBURGH: This is the Sunday night game, and it will be a chilly one, with the temperature around 30 along with 10-15 mph winds at Heinz Field. ?The total hasn?t moved off of 37. That was already the lowest total on the board. It?s hard to push it any lower.? However, by lunch hour Friday in Vegas, The SuperBook took the total down another tick to 36.5.


Pros vs. Joes

DENVER AT KANSAS CITY: ?There is some sharp action on the Broncos, and the public has really been all over the Chiefs ever since it was announced that Patrick Mahomes is playing.? Mahomes suffered a hand injury in last week?s win at New England, but he expects to be good to go Sunday.

Kansas City opened -10.5, quickly surged to -11.5, then was bet down to -9 by midweek before hiking to -10 Friday morning. The SuperBook ticked back to 9.5 Friday afternoon.
Reverse Line Moves

PHILADELPHIA AT WASHINGTON: ?A small reverse line move here. We?re down to Eagles -5.5 from -6, but the public money has mostly been on the Eagles.?

ATLANTA AT SAN FRANCISCO: The move here is toward the Falcons, but the host Niners are drawing more cash. ?The line opened 49ers -11.5 and is down to -10.5. However, the public money is on the 49ers.?

MINNESOTA AT LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: This line has been cut in half, from Vikings -3 to -1.5, but Minnesota has the bulk of the action. ?The public money is on the Vikings, especially on parlays.?

 

[Cnotes53]

--tout site--

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Betting Stats heading into Sun Wk 15:

Road Teams: 116-88-5 ATS
Home Teams: 88-116-5 ATS

Favorites: 92-112-5 ATS
Underdogs: 112-92-5 ATS

Home Faves: 52-76-5 ATS
Home Dogs: 36-40 ATS

Road Faves: 40-36 ATS
Road Dogs: 76-52-5 ATS

O/U: 101-108


*********************************


by: Josh Inglis


EDELMAN OF HONOR

We haven?t played a Julian Edelman total all year and that?s a shame because he has been a bankable WR on the Over. The New England receiver has seen double-digit targets in eight straight games and will face a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has allowed slot receivers Cooper Kupp, Cole Beasley, Jarvis Landry and Dede Westbrook to average 6.25 catches for 112 yards.

Edelman is questionable ahead of Sunday?s matchup with the Patriots which usually doesn?t mean much in New England. The Bengals should be a layup for the Pats, but with how poorly the offense has been playing all year, Tom Brady will need the reigning Super Bowl MVP to suit up on Sunday.

Monitor the WR?s status for Sunday and if the receiver is a go, it should be in a non-limited roll. We are willing to take the Over on an Edelman reception total below eight and a yardage total below 86 yards. Edelman has topped 85 yards and 7.5 receptions in four of his last six games.


A LAME DUCK

We hit the Pittsburgh Steelers team total Over 21.5 last week and that?s a ride we don?t want to be on again. Devlin Hodges has attempted 20, 21 and 19 passes over his three starts this year, he won?t have JuJu Smith-Schuster again this week and he faces the Bills? No. 5 DVOA pass defense.

Hodges? yardage total sits at 195.5 yards which seems a bit high considering he is averaging 165 passing yards in his three starts versus the No. 20, No. 13 and No. 29 DVOA passing defenses.

The Steelers are content to pound the ball as their 35 rushes a game over their last three weeks is tied for the most in the league. Take Hodges' Under on his 195.5 passing yardage total on this Sunday night showdown.


EAGLE AID

Even at 6-7, the Philadelphia Eagles have a chance to win the NFC East. It may be a difficult task for this offense to win games down the stretch with an array of injuries to its receiving core, running backs and offensive linemen.

RB Jordan Howard is expected to miss Week 15 against Washington, which leaves Miles Sander and Boston Scott to split carries behind an offensive line that could be without its most important piece. PFF?s No. 2 tackle Lane Johnson has been ruled out for the contest meaning Carson Wentz will likely see more pressure than the team?s 30 percent average on the year (18th most).

Washington?s defense isn?t as bad as other basement-dwelling teams as it sits 19th in total DVOA. On top of playing the Under on the Eagles? team total of 23.5, we are going to fade Eagles QB Carson Wentz and play his Under 262.5 passing yards as we don?t think he has the supporting cast to do it this week.


ONE, TWO, THREE, FOURNETTE

The lifeless Jacksonville Jaguars will not have the services of their leading wideout D.J. Chark this week, leaving a glaring hole in the offenses? ability to stretch the field. With QB Gardner Minshew looking at Dede Westbrook, Keenan Cole and Chris Conley as his top WRs, we imagine the best course for this offense is to run it through Leonard Fournette this week against the Oakland Raiders.

The Raiders have a bad pass defense (31st) and an equally bad rush defense (31st) so Doug Marrone getting Fournette involved in the passing and rushing game should be a priority. The Jags RB has averaged 18 carries and nearly 10 targets a game over the last three weeks.

We like the Over on Fournette?s total yards of 118.5 yards in a game that could see a lot of yardage/points if both defenses lay down as they have in previous weeks.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday Blitz - Week 15
Kevin Rogers

GAMES TO WATCH

Bears at Packers (-4 ?, 40 ?) ? 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS) can move one step closer towards wrapping up the NFC North title with a victory at home. The Packers rebounded from the Week 12 beatdown at the hands of the 49ers to take care of the Giants and Redskins the last two weeks. Green Bay failed to cash as 13-point favorites last Sunday in a 20-15 triumph over Washington, but the Packers are the only team in the NFL that has not suffered consecutive ATS losses this season.

It may be too little, too late for the defending NFC North champion Bears (7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS) to make the playoffs, but Chicago is riding a three-game winning streak heading into Lambeau Field. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is coming off consecutive three-touchdown performances against the Lions and Cowboys, while helping Chicago pick up only its fourth cover of the season in a Week 14 home underdog victory over Dallas, 31-24.

The Packers held off the Bears in the season opener at Soldier Field, 10-3 as 3 ?-point underdogs. Green Bay owns a 6-1 record in its last seven meetings with Chicago dating back to 2016, as the Packers have won three straight home matchups. The Bears are listed as a road underdog for the third time this season, but are 0-2 SU/ATS with losses to the Eagles and Rams.

Best Bet: Packers 27, Bears 21


Texans at Titans (-3, 51) ? 1:00 PM EST

The race for the top spot in the AFC South likely won?t be decided on Sunday, regardless of who wins this important contest at Nissan Stadium. These two division rivals hook up twice in the final three weeks of the season, as Tennessee (8-5 SU, 7-5-1 ATS) has caught fire following a slow start. The Titans made a change at quarterback seven games ago as Ryan Tannehill has led Tennessee to a 6-1 SU/ATS record to pull into first place tie, while averaging 37.5 points per game during this current four-game winning streak.

The Texans (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) fell into the expected letdown spot last week after defeating the Patriots as a home underdog in Week 13. Denver rolled Houston, 38-24 as eight-point underdogs to prevent the Texans from winning three consecutive games for the first time this season. The good news for the Texans this week is they have yet to drop back-to-back contests in 2019, while cashing in five of seven opportunities in the underdog role.

The home team has captured the last six matchups since 2016, as the Texans have been limited to 17 points or fewer in their past three visits to Nashville, all losses. Tennessee is currently on a 7-0 streak to the OVER with Tannehill at quarterback, while Houston is 2-1 to the OVER in three road games with totals closing at 50 or higher.

Best Bet: Houston 28, Tennessee 20


Rams at Cowboys ? 4:25 PM EST

Two teams going in opposite directions heading down the stretch, yet the colder team has a clearer path to the playoffs than the hotter squad. The Rams (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS) captured the NFC title last season, but need to likely win out and receive help to return to the postseason for the third consecutive year. Los Angeles is fresh off its fifth win in the past seven games after routing Seattle last Sunday, 28-12 as short home favorites. The Rams? defense has stepped up in the second half of the season by limiting six of the previous seven opponents to 17 points or less, while riding a 7-1 run to the UNDER the last eight games.

The Cowboys (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) don?t own a winning record with three weeks remaining in the season, but still have the inside track on hosting a first round game and grabbing the NFC East title. Dallas can themselves by beating Philadelphia on the road next week for the season sweep of the Eagles, but the Cowboys need to put an end to a three-game skid immediately. The Cowboys still have not defeated a team that sits above the .500 mark, while possessing a dreadful 0-7 record this season when scoring below 30 points.

Los Angeles bounced Dallas from the playoffs last season with a 30-22 home victory in the divisional round. The Rams covered as 7 ?-point favorites after jumping out to a 23-7 lead before the Cowboys made it interesting late. L.A. has put together an 18-5 road record under head coach Sean McVay, which includes a 35-30 triumph at AT&T Stadium in 2017 as five-point underdogs.

Best Bet: Rams 23, Cowboys 20


BEST TOTAL PLAY

UNDER 49 ? Browns at Cardinals

This total moved up from 47 earlier in the week as a pair of Heisman Trophy winners from Oklahoma square off with Baker Mayfield facing Kyler Murray. The Browns have not cashed consecutive OVERS this season, coming off a 27-19 victory over the Bengals last week on a 43 total. Cleveland is favored on the road for the fourth time this season as the Browns have scored 13, 19, and 23 points in those games, while the lone OVER came in a 24-19 setback at Denver on a 39 total. The Cardinals have tallied only 24 points in the past two losses to the Steelers and Rams as their offense has faltered since November.

BIGGEST LINE MOVE

Tampa Bay is trying to salvage a rough season by winning four of its past five games to improve to 6-7. The Buccaneers travel to Detroit to face the Lions, who are riding a six-game losing streak. Tampa Bay opened as a four-point favorite when the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas released Week 15 lines last week. However, the Bucs have moved up to six-point favorites, which is the biggest number Tampa Bay is laying this season.

TRAP OF THE WEEK

The Seahawks are coming off their first road loss of the season in a 28-12 defeat to the Rams last week. Seattle hits the highway once again on Sunday to face struggling Carolina, as the Seahawks are 3-0 in the Eastern Time Zone this season. However, the Seahawks were no more than a two-point favorite in any of those wins against the Steelers, Browns, and Eagles. Carolina has dropped five consecutive games since a 5-3 start, but the Panthers are six-point home underdogs as they are receiving points at Bank of America Stadium for the first time since a season-opening loss to the Rams.

BETCHA DIDN?T KNOW

The Broncos have been one of the best bets in the NFL since early October by covering seven of their last nine games. Denver is 2-0 SU/ATS with rookie Drew Lock starting at quarterback the last two weeks, as the former University of Missouri standout returns to his home state to face the Chiefs. However, Kansas City has owned Denver through the years by winning eight straight meetings since 2015, including a 30-6 blowout in October. The Chiefs have won nine games this season and covered eight times in those victories as Kansas City is a nine-point favorite.

 

[Cnotes53]

The Circa Sports Million Pro Football Contest joins the SuperContest as one of the largest football handicapping contests in the country.

Derek Stevens, owner of Circa sportsbook, created the high-end contest that has an entry fee of $1,000.

Participants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

Stevens and the Circa are also awarding 'quarter prizes' plus they're paying out nine additional spots after the grand prize winner.

The inaugural event has 1,875 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the Circa Million on Saturday evening and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 ? Week 2 ? Week 3 ? Week 4 ? Week 5 ? Week 6 ? Week 7 ? Week 8 ? Week 9

Week 10 ? Week 11 ? Week 12 ? Week 13 ? Week 14

Week 15

1) L.A. Rams -1.5 (516)

2) Buffalo +1.5 (472)

3) Seattle -6 (458)

4) Miami -3.5 (432)

5) Oakland -6.5 (413)

CIRCA - WEEK 15 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
N.Y. Jets (+16.5) 64 Baltimore (-16.5) 35
Tampa Bay (-3.5) 304 Detroit (+3.5) 129
Philadelphia (-4.5) 293 Washington (+4.5) 386
Chicago (+4.5) 113 Green Bay (-4.5) 258
New England (-9.5) 406 Cincinnati (+9.5) 404
Houston (+3) 130 Tennessee (-3) 281
Seattle (-6) 458 Carolina (+6) 399
Denver (+9.5) 432 Kansas City (-9.5) 135
Miami (+3.5) 432 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) 125
Buffalo (+1.5) 472 Pittsburgh (-1.5) 280
Jacksonville (+6.5) 127 Oakland (-6.5) 413
Cleveland (-2.5) 275 Arizona (+2.5) 167
Atlanta (+10.5) 344 San Francisco (-10.5) 121
L.A. Rams (-1.5) 516 Dallas (+1.5) 288
Minnesota (-2.5) 339 L.A. Chargers (+2.5) 390
Indianapolis (+8.5) 168 New Orleans (-8.5) 171

CIRCA - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 2-3 5-5 50%
3 5-0 10-5 67%
4 1-4 11-9 55%
5 2-3 13-12 52%
6 2-3 15-15 50%
7 2-2-1 17-17-1 50%
8 3-2 20-19-1 51%
9 0-5 20-24-1 45%
10 1-3-1 21-27-2 43%
11 4-1 25-28-2 47%
12 3-2 28-30-2 48%
13 4-1 32-31-2 51%
14 4-1 36-32-2 53%
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -


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[Cnotes53]

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest is the biggest, most prestigious, challenging pro football handicapping contest in the country. The fees are $1,500 per entry.

Contestants must pick 5 pro football games against the spread each week for the entire 17-week season. A win is worth one point while a push earns a half point. The individual that has the best record after the season will be deemed the winner.

The Westgate Las Vegas Resort is a hotel, casino, and convention center, which is located in Las Vegas, Nevada. SuperBook vice-president Jay Kornegay is in charge of the SuperContest.

This year's contest has 3,328 entries.

Each week throughout the season, we'll post the Top 5 Consensus Picks in the SuperContest on Saturday afternoon and list all of the selections for each matchup.

Week 1 ? Week 2 ? Week 3 ? Week 4 ? Week 5 ? Week 6 ? Week 7 ? Week 8 ? Week 9

Week 10 ? Week 11 ? Week 12 ? Week 13 ? Week 14

Week 15

1) L.A. Rams -1 (1139)

2) Buffalo +2.5 (1127)

3) New England -9.5 (773)

4) Seattle -6.5 (757)

5) Minnesota -2.5 (728)


SUEPRCONTEST - WEEK 15 MATCHUPS & ODDS
Away Team Selections Home Team Selections
N.Y. Jets (+15) 145 Baltimore (-15) 131
Tampa Bay (-3) 640 Detroit (+3) 167
Philadelphia (-4.5) 504 Washington (+4.5) 310
Chicago (+4) 571 Green Bay (-4) 634
New England (-9.5) 773 Cincinnati (+9.5) 195
Houston (+3) 681 Tennessee (-3) 621
Seattle (-6.5) 757 Carolina (+6.5) 250
Denver (+9) 662 Kansas City (-9) 311
Miami (+3.5) 691 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) 201
Buffalo (+2.5) 1127 Pittsburgh (-2.5) 432
Jacksonville (+6.5) 209 Oakland (-6.5) 711
Cleveland (-2.5) 428 Arizona (+2.5) 344
Atlanta (+10.5) 662 San Francisco (-10.5) 218
L.A. Rams (-1) 1139 Dallas (+1) 469
Minnesota (-2.5) 728 L.A. Chargers (+2.5) 595
Indianapolis (+8) 288 New Orleans (-8) 346

SUPERCONTEST - WEEKLY AND OVERALL CONSENSUS RECORDS
Week Consensus Record Overall Record Percentage
1 3-2 3-2 60%
2 3-2 6-4 60%
3 3-2 9-6 60%
4 2-3 11-9 55%
5 3-2 14-11 56%
6 2-3 16-14 53%
7 3-2 19-16 54%
8 2-3 21-19 53%
9 0-4-1 21-23-1 47%
10 1-3-1 22-26-2 46%
11 4-1 26-27-2 49%
12 4-1 30-28-2 52%
13 2-3 32-31-2 51%
14 4-1 36-32-2 53%
15 - - -
16 - - -
17 - - -
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[Cnotes53]

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