CNOTES 2019 NFL SEASON'S BEST BETS- OPINIONS-NEWS-TRENDS THRU THE SUPERBOWL !

[Udog]

141BUFFALO -142 HOUSTON
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games in the current season.

143TENNESSEE -144 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 17-5 ATS (11.5 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the last 3 seasons.

145MINNESOTA -146 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) with <=6 days rest in the current season.

147SEATTLE -148 PHILADELPHIA
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the last 3 seasons.




NFL
Long Sheet

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (10 - 6) at HOUSTON (10 - 6) - 1/4/2020, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games this season.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
BUFFALO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (9 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 4) - 1/4/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 123-158 ATS (-50.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-207 ATS (+42.3 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 270-207 ATS (+42.3 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 207-152 ATS (+39.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 199-152 ATS (+31.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 106-73 ATS (+25.7 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-89 ATS (+32.1 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-92 ATS (+27.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 91-59 ATS (+26.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, January 5

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (10 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 3) - 1/5/2020, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 2-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 2-1 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (11 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (9 - 7) - 1/5/2020, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Cnotes53]

Sportsbook Betting Recap - Week 17

All the Patriots had to do was win at home against the Dolphins and they?d get a bye and only have to win two games in the playoffs to make the Super Bowl, again. They were 17-point favorites. No NFL team has lost with that high of a spread in 25 years but it happened in Sunday?s Week 17 action with the Dolphins 27-24 win at Foxboro which forces the Patriots into the Wild Card round next week. The result was positive for most Nevada sportsbooks, but a couple of shops took their lumps with it on the money-line.

?It was a good day driven by the Dolphins winning,? said MGM Resorts sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback. ?We had a bettor play two $100,000 money-line parlays that already had LSU, the Saints, Chiefs, and Packers win and he needed the Patriots to win as the fifth leg to cash. It looked as though the Chiefs and Packers both had a chance to lose, but it was the Patriots, the unlikeliest that helped us the most.?

The last time a favorite as big as the Patriots lost outright was in 1995 when the Redskins (+17.5) beat the Cowboys, 24-17. Last season in Week 3 the Bills (+16.5) surprised the Vikings, 27-6. Tom Brady was 15-0 at home against the Dolphins in meaningful games, but there were signs something this was coming.

?You could see it a mile away,? said William Hill?s head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. ?Miami has been very competitive the last six weeks while the Pats have been very average at best. It?s been smoke and mirrors for them for the last seven weeks.?

After starting 8-0, the Patriots have gone just 4-4 straight up and 2-5-1 against the spread in the second-half of the season Brady threw a pick-six, another sign that things are off for the defending champs.

The Dolphins closed the season with two straight wins to finish 5-11 after losing their first seven games forcing several books to post props if they would go winless. They covered inflated spreads in nine of their last 12 games becoming the most consistent cover team over that stretch. In Week 2, they lost at home to the Patriots, 43-0, as 18-point 'dogs.

Bogdanovich said several Nevada bettors were feeling the Dolphins upset and said smaller wagers accumulating $6,800 across the state had the Dolphins money-line from +850 to 10-to-1 odds. Nice score!

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also saw a few heavy bets on the Dolphins.

?We took a $15,000 money-line bet on the Dolphins Thursday at 8-to-1 (odds),? said Superbook VP Jay Kornegay. ?And then again this morning with $10,000 at 7-to-1.?

While most books did well to the Dolphins, it was one of only three losers on the day at the SuperBook which makes them one of the most fortunate books of Week 17.

?It was a very solid day,? Kornegay said. ?Some of the results won?t make sense but we won on the sides the market moved mostly with players resting,? Kornegay said. ?We had big bets this morning on the Bears -3 and we had support for the Texans, a game we stayed ahead of the market with.?

In other words, Kornegay is basically saying his team baited bettors with numbers not available anywhere else. They closed the Bears -5 at Minnesota and closed the Titans -10 at Houston.

The Vikings rested all their key starters at home against Bears and played tough, but would lose 21-19 while covering the spread. The Texans rested their key starters as well, but the Titans didn?t. All the Titans had to do was win and they would clinch the No. 6 seed in the AFC and they?d pile it on in a 35-14 win, covering a spread that went from Titans -3.5 to -10. The Titans will now face the Patriots this weekend.

A funny note about the total (44) in the Titans game was that it looked like there was no way it would get over when it 28-14 late in the fourth quarter, but there were more stats to be acquired in the 2019 regular season and running back Derrick Henry only needed a few more yards to win the rushing title. So they kept feeding him the ball and then he broke loose for a 53-yard run for his third score of the day, while also sending the over the total in a 35-14 win.

?We were a small winner in the afternoon with the biggest being one of our big bettors laying six-figures taking +3.5 with the Giants,? Stoneback said.

All the Eagles (-3.5) had to do was win at the Giants to clinch the NFC East title regardless of what the Cowboys (-12) did at home against the Redskins. The Cowboys rolled, 47-16, but the Eagles made it not matter with a 34-17 win of a game that was once 17-17 giving Cowboys owner Jerry Jones some hope who was watching the game on TV from his luxury suite.

The Ravens rested key players at home while the Steelers (-2) had to win for a chance at the playoffs, but backup quarterback Robert Griffin III managed a 28-10 win to push them to 14-2 and extend their win streak to 12 games.

The Falcons have won and covered six of their last eight and closed the season out with three straight wins with a 28-22 overtime win at Tampa Bay. Bucs QB Jameis Winston started a club called the 5K-30-30 with 5,000 yards passing, 30 TD passes and 30 interceptions. His last pick was a game-winning interception for the Falcons, which also sent the total over 48.5,

The Sunday night game was the most important game of the day because it decided who the NFC West champion would be along with home-field advantage for the NFC Playoffs. It was the type of risk that could also wipe away all the winnings the books made from the previous 15 games on the day. Can you imagine sweating all week booking Week 17 games properly while waiting for a 'sweet tweet' to tell us more about Josh Allen and DeShaun Watson?s status, babysitting the numbers like no other week? And then the final game posted stabs you in the gut.

?We have a six-figure decision on the 49ers,? said Stoneback, a Seattle fan who usually doesn?t get to root for the Seahawks too hard because the house is usually rooting against them.

The 49ers (-3.5) would win 26-21 at Seattle sending the game over 46 total points which completed an impressive day for overs going 13-3. Favorites would go 7-8-1 ATS with four underdogs winning out, none bigger than Dolphins.

 

[Udog]

NFL

Wild Card Round

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saturday, January 4

Houston Texans
Houston is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Houston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 9 games
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games at home
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo Bills
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 10 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Houston

New England Patriots
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
New England is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games at home
New England is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games at home
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing at home against Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 10 games
Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England
Tennessee is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing New England
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against New England


Sunday, January 5

New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games
New Orleans is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home
New Orleans is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 11 games when playing Minnesota
New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games
Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 11 games when playing New Orleans
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home
Philadelphia is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Seattle is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
Seattle is 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games on the road
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

Total Talk - WC Saturday
Chris David

Wild Card Total Betting History

Playing the ?under? on Wild Card weekend has been a money-making machine for bettors over the years, especially lately. The low side has gone 3-1 each of the last two postseasons and it?s on a 20-7-1 (74%) over the last seven years. If you go back to the 2004-05 playoffs, the ?under? is 38-21-1 (64%).

2018 Wild Card Results
Indianapolis 21 at Houston 7 - UNDER 49
Seattle 22 at Dallas 24 - OVER 43.5
L.A. Chargers 23 at Baltimore 17 - UNDER 42.5
Philadelphia 16 at Chicago 15 - UNDER 42

2017 Wild Card Results
Tennessee 22 at Kansas City 21 - UNDER 44
Atlanta 26 at L.A. Rams 13 - UNDER 48.5
Buffalo 10 at Jacksonville 3 - UNDER 40
Carolina 31 at New Orleans 26 - OVER 47.5

Will we finally see a ?over? barrage in the Wild Card round? That?s a hard question to answer but if there was a sign of change coming, Week 17 did watch the high side go 12-3-1 and that was eye-opening considering the last week of the season has always trended to ?under? tickets.

Best Bet Selections

Eleven games left in the NFL season and I?m happy to write the ?Total Talk? pieces again for the playoffs. For those of you following along to my ?Best Bet? selections on the Bet and Collect Podcast this season, thanks for the support and hope you cashed tickets. The 17-week record finished at 29-22 (57%) and for the postseason, I?m going to provide my selections here plus you can listen to the analysis every weekend as well.

As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end ? Good Luck!

Buffalo at Houston (ESPN, 4:35 p.m. ET)

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this game at 39 ? and it?s been pushed up to 43 as of Tuesday. Houston has been installed as the short home favorite (-2 ?) and based on that number, oddsmakers are expecting a 23-20 win for the Texans. The number getting juiced up does look like a headscratcher on paper, knowing Buffalo has watched the ?under? go 12-4 this season with identical 6-2 marks coming at both home and on the road. Houston has also leaned to the ?under? (9-7) and that could easily be 10-6 if Titans running back Derrick Henry didn?t scamper for the late score last week.

Looking at those numbers, the obvious lean would be to a low-scoring match up on Saturday but I can see why the number was nudged up. Including the meaningless loss to Tennessee in Week 17, the Texans went 3-3 against playoff teams this season and they averaged 27.6 points per game in the wins while only scoring 16.3 PPG in the losses. We can toss out the statistics from last Sunday but it?s hard to forget the 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore on Nov. 17. Including that result, the Texans have allowed 28.3 PPG against playoff teams and while that number drops to 22.3 PPG in the three wins, it?s still not great.

Can Buffalo get anywhere near that average? While the Bills defense (15.6 PPG) has been lights out on the road, the same can?t be said for the offense (21.5 PPG). Overall, the Bills schedule was very weak and they only faced five playoff teams and a 1-4 record certainly doesn?t offer up much confidence. If you want to rationalize to the Bills at all, they did go 1-1 on the road versus playoff teams but the offense only mustered up 15.5 PPG versus the Titans (W 14-7) and Patriots (L 17-24).

Houston defeated Buffalo 20-13 in the 2018 regular season at home and the ?under? (40 ?) was never in doubt. Including that result, the ?under? is on a 4-1 run in this series.

The Bills haven?t had much postseason history, their last trip coming in the 2017 season and that ended with a 10-3 loss at Jacksonville in the Wild Card round. Houston owns a 3-5 all-time record, and that includes a 3-2 mark at NRG Stadium. The ?under? has gone 3-2 in those games. When Houston wins at home in the playoffs, it?s held opponents to 14, 13 and 10 points. When it loses, it?s allowed 21 and 30 while only scoring seven points in those games. Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson wasn?t sharp in last year?s Wild Card 21-7 loss to Indianapolis at home.

Fearless Prediction

I often tell myself not to ?overthink it? and I believe that?s the case here. While I wouldn?t be surprised to see Buffalo go into Houston and win the game, I don?t believe second-year QB Josh Allen will be the reason if that happens. The Bills Team Total Under (20) looks like a solid lean knowing they?ve only cracked that number five times in their last 16 road games and never against a team with a winning record. I think we?re looking at a 21-16, 20-13 outcome with Houston coming out on top.


Tennessee at New England (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The late-night matchup on Saturday also saw upward steam as the total was sent out at 41 ? and the number is up to 44. It?s going to be weird to see New England playing in the Wild Card round, something it hasn?t done since the 2009 playoffs. For those who remember, the Patriots were embarrassed 33-14 at Foxboro by the Ravens as running back Ray Rice dominated for Baltimore.

Fast forward to this matchup and it appears that bettors are expecting another upset in New England, with the early action going to Tennessee (+5 ? to +4 ?). Since that loss to the Ravens, the Patriots have gone 12-2 at Gillette Stadium in the playoffs but plenty of those victories came on the shoulders of QB Tom Brady. If you?ve watched New England play this season, you?re well aware that the offense is nowhere near previous squads. The Patriots are ranked seventh in scoring offense (26.2 PPG) but the production has dropped a bit at home (25.2 PPG).

Defensively the unit only allowed 14.1 PPG albeit against a strength of schedule that was tied for second to last in the NFL. When facing playoff opponents, New England went 3-3 and the defense was great in the wins (12.3 PPG) but humbled in the losses (29.3 PPG). The ?under? was 9-7 on the season. The Titans defense (20.7 PPG) wasn?t on the same level as New England but it was sneaky good this season and it played a tougher scheduled (8th). Also, the unit traveled well and only allowed 17.6 PPG outside of Nashville. Tennessee was a clear-cut ?under? team at the beginning of the season, with the low side cashing in five of their first six games. Then, QB Marcus Mariota was benched for Ryan Tannehill and the Titans averaged 27.6 PPG compared to 16.3 PPG with Mariota. That production led to a 9-1 ?over? mark down the stretch and that includes the aforementioned lucky ticket last week in Houston.

It?s nice to see Tannehill getting some recognition but I still have my reservations on him and the Titans defense too. Tennessee only faced four playoff teams with him under center and they went 2-2, which includes Houston laying down last week. A 35-32 home win over Kansas City in Week 10 was surprising for the Titans, especially since the Chiefs let up the box score with 530 total yards. Including the Week 5 outcome to the Bills (L 7-14) at home, the Titans were 2-3 overall against playoff squads and the ?under? went 3-2 in those games.

These teams have met twice in the last three seasons. Tennessee stomped New England 34-10 in the 2018 regular season at home and the ?under? (46 ?) connected. This was a statement win for Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who helped the Patriots win three Super Bowls playing linebacker for Bill Belichick. The pair also met in the 2017 playoffs and New England blasted Tennessee 35-14 as the ?over? cashed late with a meaningless touchdown by the Titans. Prior to that results, the Titans saw the ?under? cash in their previous five postseason games ? dating back to 2004 though.

Fearless Prediction

The question for me in this game - Can you back Tannehill in his first career playoff spot at Foxboro? During his tenure with Miami, he went 0-5 at Gillette Stadium while the Dolphins only averaged 11.6 PPG in the losses. All the blame can?t be placed on him, but his 4-10 touchdown-interception ratio didn?t help the cause. Fortunately for Tannehill, this Titans team has playmakers and I believe the Tennessee Team Total Over (19 ?) is a strong look. I also believe New England wins this game and that will have me leaning to the Over (44) in the game as well. I?ll call it 26-23 for the home team.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Round

Saturday, January 4

Buffalo @ Houston

Game 141-142
January 4, 2020 @ 4:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
132.066
Houston
131.142
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 1
30
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+3); Under

Tennessee @ New England

Game 143-144
January 4, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tennessee
139.201
New England
134.604
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 4 1/2
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 5 1/2
44
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(+5 1/2); Under


Sunday, January 5

Minnesota @ New Orleans

Game 145-146
January 5, 2020 @ 1:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
131.480
New Orleans
143.309
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 12
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-7 1/2); Over

Seattle @ Philadelphia

Game 147-148
January 5, 2020 @ 4:40 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
134.306
Philadelphia
129.239
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 5
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 1 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-1 1/2); Over

 

[Udog]

posted in wrong thread....

 

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


PLAYOFFS? WORST OFFENSES

The Jets, Giants, Bengals, Titans, Redskins, Dolphins (twice), Cowboys, Broncos and Steeler: that?s the list of teams the Bills have beaten this year. The best team and only playoff team on that list are the 9-7 Titans who were quaterbacked by Marcus Mariota back in Week 5. This week, the Buffalo?s 22nd-ranked offense heads to Houston to take on a Texans team who has the next worst DVOA offense (17th) out of the 12 playoff teams.

The Bills? team total sits at 19.5 (-134) and will likely move up past the key number of 20.5 as the total continues to rise after opening at 39.5. Buffalo finished 4-4 down the stretch and hasn't topped 20 points since Thanksgiving.

The Houston offense hasn?t exactly been turning heads of late as well. Over the last three weeks, Deshaun Watson?s offense is averaging just 301 yards of offense per game which is the 24th-most over that stretch. Having their No. 1 receiver in DeAndre Hopkins shadowed by Buffalo corner Tre?Davious White could also mitigate the offense?s big-play ability.

We are going to wait to see if the Bills? team total moves to 20.5 and will buy on the bigger number. However, we love the way the total is moving and are taking the Under 43.5. We might even buy another share down if Houston receiver WIll Fuller can?t suit up or may be limited.


HENRY TO SEND PATS PACKING

Titans running back Derrick Henry is a 250-pound truck that is capable of taking Tennessee to the divisional round. The big back has been an absolute terror against Top-10 teams this year per TeamRanking.com. Henry is averaging 144 yards per game rushing against the league?s best and faces a New England defense that is allowing 4.2 yards per carry (14th) on the year.

Henry?s rushing total sits at 90.5 yards which he has gone Over in five of his last six games. A big reason for his production is just sheer volume. Henry led the league at 20.5 rushes per game but saw nearly 24 totes a game over the last month. The Patriots have only faced three RBs who carried 20 or more times this year: Joe Mixon 25-136, Ezekiel Elliott 21-86 and Nick Chubb 20-131.

If the Titans have faith in their running game against New England and let Henry wear down the defense with 20-plus rushes, the 90.5 yard total is a reasonable play. Take the Over.


SCOTT OFF THE PRESS

The Seattle Seahawks? rush defense is limping into the playoffs having giving up on average of 172 rushing yards per game over the final three matches of the year which works out 5.7 yards per carry. They ranked 26th in DVOA rush defense and will have to deal with Philadelphia?s impressive offensive line who aided Boston Scott in his three rushing touchdowns and Miles Sanders to 5.8 ypc before exiting with an injury last week.

There is some uncertainty with the Eagles? backfield heading into Sunday?s game, but it is a profitable situation to monitor as Seattle has allowed the second-most road rushing TDs in the league at 1.5 per game. Sanders is dealing with a ?low-grade ankle sprain? and is considered day-to-day. Jordan Howard came back to the lineup last week and logged just one snap and may not be close to 100 percent.

If we had to pick a side, our money would be on Boston Scott especially after a trio of TDs last week. He proved he could get it done in the red zone taking three of his four RZ carries to the house. We are monitoring the situation, but are willing to put some money on Scott to score even if Sanders and Howard are part of the game plan ? but likely limited.


HAND OF GOEDERT

Zach Ertz sounds like he won?t get any practice in this week as he tries to get back on the field while dealing with rib and kidney issues. Even if the star tight end does suit up, it will most likely be in a limited fashion meaning Dallas Goedert will be the man again against the Seahawks.

Goedert has seen 22 targets over the last two weeks and should be the focal point of the passing offense against the Seahawks. Seattle let 49ers TE George Kittle put up 86 yards on seven grabs last week and is averaging 67.7 yards to opposing TEs (3rd-most).

Goedert?s markets aren?t open yet as books are waiting to see what happens with all the injuries the Eagles are dealing with. But knowing what our limit is total-wise before the market is set is a valuable tool we can use. We are taking the Over on Goedert?s receiving total on any number below 72 yards as Carson Wentz is averaging 43 passes a game over the last four games.

 

[Udog]

Today Bill O?Brien said Houston Texans WR Will Fuller (groin) will be a game time decision on Saturday. I?m told by multiple sources that it?s going to be a real long shot for Fuller to play. Obviously they?ll keep working him to see if there?s a chance he can go.


Eagles do-it-all back Miles Sanders (ankle) is hopeful to practice Friday, and a source says his plan is to play vs. SEA barring a setback. It's a low-ankle injury, so the issue has been inflammation. He is improving. 'He wants to play,' the source said.


For the first time since Week 15, Vikings? RB Dalvin Cook was a full participant in practice. On track to return to the lineup Sunday vs. the Saints.


Officially back: the Texans have activated DL J.J. Watt to the 53-man roster and he will play on Saturday, per source. The team placed starting S Tashaun Gispon on IR to make room for Watt


Eagles placed G Brandon Brooks on Reserve/Injured and signed WR Shelton Gibson.

 

[Udog]

Total Talk - WC Sunday
Chris David

Minnesota at New Orleans (FOX, 1:05 p.m. ET)

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened this total at 46 and as of Wednesday morning, the number has been pushed up to 49 ?. This is the highest total of the Wild Card weekend and based on the public perception of shootouts in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, you can understand the uptick.

Even though quarterback Drew Brees and the Saints have the ability to light up the scoreboard, the ?over? was only 9-7 this season. More surprising, Minnesota owned a 9-7 ?over? record and that included a 5-3 mark to the high side on the road. Delving into that number further, the Vikings closed the season a 5-0 run as visitors and as much heat as QB Kirk Cousins takes, they averaged 32.4 points per game over that stretch. Minnesota went 3-2 in those games and the reason it didn?t do better was because the defense allowed 25.4 PPG. On the season, the Vikings were ranked sixth in scoring defense (18.9 PPG) but that number spiked against playoff teams (25.4 PPG). The Vikings went 1-4 in those games and that?s why Cousins gets criticized and why I often label Minnesota as a ?bully? team.

The total results (4-4) at New Orleans for home produced a stalemate despite averaging 28.4 PPG. The attack did have two clunkers during this span, defeating Dallas 12-10 in Week 4 before getting humbled 26-9 by Atlanta in Week 10. New Orleans was ranked 13th in scoring defense (21.6 PPG) and while the unit has improved over the last few seasons, watching the 49ers captured a 48-46 road win over the Saints in Week 14 reminded us of those weaknesses. The loss to San Francisco was the only setback for New Orleans against a playoff team this season, who finished 4-1 overall. Make a note that all five of those games went ?over? the number and they were clear-cut shootouts with an average combined score of 64 PPG. If you take out the combined 94 points versus SF, the average is still strong at 56.5 PPG. These teams have met three times over the last three seasons and all of those encounters took place at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota. The ?over? went 2-1 and that includes Minnesota?s improbable 29-24 win over New Orleans in the 2018 Divisional Playoffs.

Cousins has only started one playoff game in his career when he was with Washington and they were blasted 35-18 at home to Green Bay in the 2016 Wild Card Round. Meanwhile, the experience edge goes to Brees with an 8-6 record in the playoffs with New Orleans and the ?over? has gone 9-5 in those games.
Fearless Predictions
New Orleans saw the ?under? cash in both home playoff affairs last season as it rallied past Philadelphia 20-14 in the Divisional Playoffs before getting stunned 26-23 by the L.A. Rams in the NFC Championship. The totals on those games both closed in the fifties (52, 55) and I believe this one will too by kickoff. Prior to those results, the Saints were on a 5-0 ?over? run at home with Brees in the playoffs and the best production for the future Hall of Famer came in Wild Card game. New Orleans has averaged 40.3 PPG in its last three WC spots at home and I believe they put up another crooked number and cash its Win Total Over (28 ?). I do believe Minnesota will score as well and its Team Total (20) Over is tempting, but let?s keep it simple and drill the Over (49 ?) in the game only. I?ll call it New Orleans 42 Minnesota 27 in the Sunday?s opener.

Seattle at Philadelphia (NBC, 4:40 p.m. ET)

Of the four Wild Card playoff matchups, this is the only total that has seen early ?under? money. The SuperBook sent out an opener of 45 ? and the total sits at 45 as of Wednesday evening. This is also the game that features a rematch from this year?s regular season as Seattle captured a convincing 17-9 road win over Philadelphia in Week 12 as a two-point road favorite and the ?under? (45 ?) was never in doubt. Both clubs had to deal with windy conditions at Lincoln Financial Field and that likely helped make the game very sloppy. The pair combined for seven turnovers, with the Eagles coughing it up five times. Plus, Seattle has 12 penalties and key drops by their wide receivers.

Including that win, Seattle has now won five straight against the Philadelphia and QB Russell Wilson is now 4-0 in his career against the Eagles while the ?under? has cashed in all four of those games. While everybody knows Seattle is one of the toughest venues in the NFL, what we?ve seen from Wilson in his career (38-25-1) on the road is impressive and the 7-1 record this season was tied for the best mark in the league as a visitor.

What?s more eye-opening is that Seattle has been able to score while traveling great distances and that?s been a common theme. In their last seven games played in the Eastern Time Zone, the Seahawks are averaging 27.4 PPG and that includes the 17-spot versus the Birds. The ?over? has gone 4-3 in those games and the numbers would probably be better but Seattle?s defense has been better on the road (21.1 PPG) this season than at home (28.6 PPG), which is crazy when many of us still reminisce about the ?Legion of Boom? unit.

Philadelphia has some crazy home-away numbers as well, especially for totals. The Eagles saw the ?over? go 6-2 on the road but the ?under? was 6-2 at the Linc. The difference has been the Philadelphia defense, which allowed 16.8 PPG compared to an eye-opening 27.5 PPG on the road. Another factor helping the ?under? at home has been the inept Philadelphia offense. The unit posted 21 PPG at home and 27.1 PPG as visitors and all those stats produce identical 6-2 marks.

What head coach Doug Pederson and the Eagles did this season was incredible, especially winning their final four games with a short-handed club. It should?ve been five straight but people forget the embarrassing 37-31 collapse at Miami in Week 13. The one thing those opponents had in common is that none are in the playoffs. Against postseason clubs, Philadelphia went 2-3 and that includes a 0-2 record at home against the Seahawks and Patriots (10-17), both ?under? winners. Seattle went 3-3 against playoff teams this season, two of the victories coming on the road and the total went 1-1 in those games.

Fearless Predictions

Seattle has watched the ?over? go 8-2 in their last 10 road playoff games and they?ve allowed 30.3 PPG in their last three postseason trips. Those trends combined with Seattle?s ability to score on the East Coast lately should have you supporting the ?over? with confidence but the injuries and depth concerns for Philadelphia are hard to overlook. QB Carson Wentz, who?s making his playoff debut, has been playing great lately but I expect the home squad to lean on their defense and the form at home in their last six games (13.3 PPG) has been lights out. I don?t see both teams getting to 20 points and I believe kicking will be a key factor. I?d lean to ?over? bets in total field goals made but my only lean for this contest is on the Under (45). I see a 19-16 outcome here, likely Seattle, but whoever wins this game will get lit up for 30-plus points at Green Bay or San Francisco in the Divisional Playoffs.

 

[Udog]

by: Josh Inglis


THE FIRST 15 OF THE WILD CARD

We are already on the Buffalo/Houston Under 43.5 but there is more meat on the Under bone in a first-quarter play. The Bills (2.7) and Texans (2.9) sit 30th and 29th respectively in first-quarter points scored this year. It has been even worse for Buffalo of late as it has scored just three first-quarter points over its last three games and has just three 1Q points in its last three road games. Looking through their schedule, they haven?t scored a 1Q touchdown on the road since Week 2, back on September 16.

Buffalo is 0-3-2 SU in the first quarter of its last five and 1-4 O/U on 1Q totals of 7.5. The Texans have had much more success in the first 15 as they are 2-1-2 SU in the first quarter in their last five and 4-1 O/U.

With Buffalo?s inability to score early and rely on Josh Allen comebacks too often, we are taking the Texans 1Q Money Line at -130.


SHOW US YOUR TDs

The New Orleans Saints scored the fifth-most TDs per game at 3.2 this year and have averaged five TDs per game over their last three. In the red zone, the Saints have scored a TD on 80 percent of their trips inside the 20 since Week 15 and 60 percent on the year. The Saints? games have averaged 8.25 TDs per game over their last four and are 3-1 O/U TD totals of 5.5.

Minnesota is scoring more than three TDs per game on the road this year thanks to getting six points in the red zone 66 percent of the time. In their last five road games, the Vikes are 3-2 O/U TD totals of 5.5.

With Dalvin Cook expected to suit up for Sunday's matchup, we like both offenses to be able to reach the endzone from anywhere on the field. We are taking the Over 5.5 total touchdowns.


BETTER OFF RED ZONE

Lots of people are talking about the possibility of the Titans knocking off the Pats Saturday night and it is justified. Tennessee is averaging 412 yards of offense a game over their last three games which is the best mark out of every playoff team. Only Baltimore is averaging more rushing yards a game (186) and no playoff team is getting more yards per completion than Ryan Tannehill (13.9).

The real threat to the Pats is the Titans red-zone offense. Tannehill?s crew is scoring a TD on 87.5 percent of their red-zone trips since Week 15 which equals 2.3 red-zone touchdowns per game.

New England has been one of the league?s best at forcing teams to kick field goals inside the 20 (48 percent TD scoring %) but have padded their stats versus Bottom-10 offenses 10 times this year. In the two games against Top-10 offenses (Baltimore and K.C.), New England allowed five TDs in six trips to the red zone.

We like the Titans offense a lot better than New England?s and with the Pats liking to receive the ball in the second half, we could see the Titans with the first chance to put up points on the board. We are taking a Titans touchdown as the first score of the game at +250.


ALL MY WILSON

Yesterday we wrote about the Seahawks offensive-line problems and how much Russell Wilson has been getting sacked on the road. When we are looking at QB rushing totals, allowed pressure rates is a great stat to look at because getting outside the pocket and taking off on non-designed QB rush plays are where we can make the money.

Wilson is 9-7 O/U on rushing totals of 20.5 this year and finished with the 6th most QB rushing yards ? averaging 21.4 yards per rush a game. Sunday's opponent, the Eagles, have allowed two QBs over the last three weeks to rush for 26 yards or more while Wilson has averaged 28.3 rushing yards a game over his 13 playoff appearances ? going 7-6 O/U on totals of 24.5.

We think his rushing total is little high at 24.5, especially one week after being 18.5. We might shop around and hope it opens closer to 20-23 yards but love Wilson?s ability to escape pressure and pick up yards on the ground. We will take the Over 24.5, but will shop around first.

 

[Udog]

Saturday's Best Bets
Matt Blunt

The NFL Playoffs have arrived and that means that bettors get to spend their usual amount of time handicapping NFL during the week, but narrowing down the research to just four games. That's quite critical in itself, but at the same time, just because it's the playoffs should you need to force a bet. Yes, you've got more time to dig into games, but if you don't find anything, you shouldn't be betting full units on plays you aren't fully comfortable with. Remember, if these matchups were held during a regular Sunday slate during the year, you might simply pass and move on to the next game. An important concept to keep in mind this time of year.

Nobody wants to read about how to pass on games in the sports betting market though, so let's see if we can find some significant angles for the games this weekend. The two AFC Wild Card games are up first, so that's where I'll begin.

Buffalo at Houston (4:35 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: Buffalo +2.5

A couple things to note off the top here, and that is, you probably want to buy this up to +3 for the best of the number, and with the juice currently sitting on the Houston side of things, it's not all that expensive. Secondly, thinking about the money-line (ML) with Buffalo is worth a look, but being safe is probably the better option for multiple reasons. Eventually this Bills run of not having won a playoff game since 1995 will be halted, and there is probably no better time then the present to do so.

However, I say taking the points is the better option because of one thing that speaks for backing Buffalo, but somewhat against taking the ML without some points already in your pocket. Opponent 3rd down conversion percentage.

In this 12-team football tournament known as the NFL Playoffs, in the past five years, the team that's got the worst opponent 3rd down conversion percentage entering the playoffs ? ie the defense can't get off the field ? is 0-4-1 against the spread (ATS) during Wild Card Weekend. That's the role the Houston Texans find themselves in this season with an absurd opponent 3rd down conversion percentage of 48.51. Basically every other 3rd down gets converted by Houston opponents, and if you give a Bills offense that prefers to sustain (and capitalize) on long drives, a much better chance to do so, the Bills defense will make sure things look bleak for you the rest of the way.

The problem with that stat suggesting a ML play is the fact that the straight up (SU) record by these teams is actually 4-1 SU in these five games. That's a lot of narrow wins by home favorites in this spot, as their suspect 3rd down defense will always leave the backdoor cover open at worst, or forces said team to be playing uphill for the majority of the game and squeaking by with a late score.

Last year it was the Dallas Cowboys in this spot, and as -2.5 home favorites ? the identical role Houston is currently in ? a 24-22 SU win by Dallas was good enough to advance but not good enough for their backers. The 2017 postseason saw a similar story with the Saints winning SU but losing ATS by the hook in a five-point win over Carolina, while the 2015 Steelers pushed as small road favorites, and the 2014 Cowboys couldn't beat the Lions by enough margin.

This game landing on two points or less in a Houston win isn't the most likeliest of options, so I can understand a ML play on Buffalo only if you like the Bills, but a lot of funky things can happen in the playoffs and you can never have too many points because of it.

Buffalo's defense should be able to contain a Texans offense that runs quite hot and cold, and with the banged up playmaker bodies they have right now, asking them to be on the hotter side of that equation is tough. If Josh Allen wants to continue to take steps forward in his growth and development as a player, winning a playoff game now would be just that.

Buffalo comes into the playoffs as the worst 3rd down team on offense ? convert just 35.85% of their 3rd downs ? but to do that and still be a 10-win team is impressive. It means that the defense keeps Buffalo in games no matter what, and against a Houston defense that gives up what they do on the ?money down? the Bills offense should be able to get things running rather smoothly quite early.

Buffalo might end up being a rather 'popular' dog this weekend, but I'm more then fine with that being the case with these two teams involved.


Tennessee at New England (8:15 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: New England Team Total Over 24.5

Tennessee sounds like they could be another underdog that becomes a popular choice, as the belief in New England continuing to reign over the AFC might be at an all time low. And really, it probably deserves to be given what the Patriots have put out their on the field since about November 1st. The schedule got tougher and better teams ? teams with winning records ? exposed New England.

Yet, while I would side with the overall idea that the Patriots reign atop this conference is over this year, I'm not so sure this is the game that we will see it happen. This year's New England team has the look of an aging champion who knows time is short and they know they'll likely fall but they won't go down without a fight. A home playoff game against a Titans team that's got a QB that Bill Belichick knows really well, is one of those ?last stand? moments for the Patriots as those aging champions.

A glimpse into what was is all this Patriots team can provide their fans this year, and at home against Tennessee I believe that's the Patriots team we see. Because what do we see next from those aging champions? The youthful, upcoming alpha puts a beating on them as the torch doesn't get passed, but taken. Doesn't that sound like what may happen in Kansas City next week if New England wins this one at home?

If the Patriots are the ones who stand up and look like the dominant Pats of old here, getting 25 or more points should be attainable. In games against teams that made the playoffs this season, Tennessee gave up 27 points per game in the four games that mattered (excluding Week 17 vs Houston).

And if I'm wrong, and this is indeed the spot that the Patriots do fall, I doubt they go out with a whimper on their own field. As I touched on earlier, Belichick's got plenty of past game plans for facing Ryan Tannehill, and has got a good idea for what should likely work. Flip that knowledge into an early turnover or two, and the Patriots put up points.

Finally, as I touched on in a piece a few weeks ago when Buffalo was visiting New England in Week 16, you ?don't tiptoe into Foxboro? if you expect to win, and a Titans win is going to have to likely come because Tennessee needs 28+ points to win.

 

[Udog]

Sunday's Best Bets
Matt Blunt

Earlier in the week I touched on what to expect from the Saturday card opening up this year's NFL Playoffs, and hopefully those two games in the AFC play out as expected. Sunday's action is all about the NFC though, and in general, I do believe it's a harder card to break down overall.

The New Orleans Saints are laying over a TD against Minnesota in a rematch of the ?Minneapolis Miracle? from a couple of years ago. And then after that, you've got a Seattle team that's outperformed their stat lines all year long, have got just a +7 point differential on the year ? every other playoff team except for Houston (-7) is at least +31 in that category (Philadelphia) ? as a small road favorite against the Eagles who didn't exactly light the world on fire either.

Home dogs in the playoffs should always at least get some consideration, and in this case, Seattle does fit the profile of a team that deserves to be faded in their current role. But that also means you've got to back Philly, a team that's been ravaged by injuries all year long. It really is a tough card through and through, however, after stepping back for a few days and really thinking about this board, one specific solution into how to wager on these two games did seem to always get circled back around too.

Minnesota at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. ET)
Seattle at Philadelphia (4:40 p.m. ET)

Best Bet: 6-point Teaser: New Orleans -1.5 to Philadelphia +7.5

The fact that there are quite a lot of bettors out there in the market that have already seemingly given this game as a win to New Orleans is a little concerning. The Kirk Cousins futility in big games continually gets brought up as reasoning, and given that the weekend's action is likely going to have the Saints tied up in a lot of teasers and/or ML parlays, oddsmakers would love to see Cousins shed that 'choker' label and win this game outright. That is definitely a bit of concern in making this play, but you can count me among the masses who does believe that New Orleans will win this game outright.

The Saints at home are borderline unstoppable, at least on offense, and I'm not sure the Vikings have what it takes to put up the likely 30+ they'll need to threaten the Saints. New Orleans offense finished the year by putting up 34+ in each of their last four games, and 30 or more in eight of their last 10. Yes, their defense might have some cracks, but those types of cracks usually don't start showing up for division winners until later rounds of the playoffs. At home, with one of the best home field advantages in the league, the Saints should find a way to come out victorious. The point spread of -8 does seem a tad inflated and it's why I'm not interested in screwing around with a game that could easily land a point or two on either side of that spread.

Landing on the Eagles as the second leg of this teaser, as those of you who have read my NFL previews regarding Eagles games this year know I'm not the biggest believer in this team and especially their QB. But Wentz did step up when he needed to in the final month of the season, although let's pump the breaks on talks of him regaining his potential MVP form of 2017; Wentz absolutely needed to play hero against the Giants, Redskins and Cowboys of all teams in that final stretch.

But teasing the Eagles up is much more about fading a Seattle team who is still overvalued despite a recent decline back to Earth. The Seahawks lost their final two games, and three of their final four to slip into this #5 seed and will probably end up getting burned in the playoffs because of it. The only reason Seattle comes into this game laying chalk is based on record discrepancy, as a 7-1 SU record on the road probably doesn't hurt as well.

Yes, it's been a long time since the Eagles faced a quality foe, as their last game against a currently playoff team was actually hosting Seattle in late November, a game that finished 17-9 in Seattle's favor. That lack of competition (and overall healthy talent) the Eagles have recently dealt with is what has me shying away from backing them on the outright point spread, or even outright to win the game in general, but teasing them up through those key numbers of +3 and +7 makes a heck of a lot more sense.

This game could end up coming down to a single score one way or the other ? Seattle played in single-score games (8 points or less) 12 different times this year, and did fairly well in those games. That seems to be their level of comfort late in games, and it's the most likely outcome for this one as well.

Eventually, the winner of this game probably gets their ass handed to them next week against the 49ers or Packers, but for this week, I'll take as many points as I can with the underdog and hope it's a close game throughout.

 

[Udog]

Saturday's AFC Playoff Essentials
Tony Mejia

Buffalo at Houston (-2.5, 44), 4:35 pm ET, ESPN

The Texans just won their fourth AFC South title under Bill O?Brien, but he was being heavily criticized as recently as last month before his team closed out with wins in four of five before tanking their meaningless Week 17 contest against Tennessee. If Houston fails to hold serve here, it would fall to 1-4 in playoff games under O?Brien, having advanced past ?Wild Card? Weekend only once. The Texans handled a Raiders team forced to start current XFL first-rounder Connor Cook at QB in 2016 before suffering a 34-16 loss at the Patriots.

Houston (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) lost to division rival Indianapolis 21-7 last year and fell 30-0 against the Chiefs back in ?15. To say there?s pressure on O?Brien to win this game is an understatement.

The same can be said about Deshaun Watson, once dubbed Michael Jordan by Clemson?s Dabo Swinney, his college coach. He?s a decided improvement on Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer, the other Texans quarterbacks who have started under O?Brien. He?s better than Matt Schaub and T.J. Yates, the other two quarterbacks who won playoff games under Gary Kubiak and have therefore done something Watson has yet to. The third-year quarterback is just 0-1 but accounted for a single touchdown in a duel against Andrew Luck, throwing an interception and completing just 29 of 49 passes in an awful home loss where Houston failed to score until the fourth quarter of a game it trailed 21-0 at the break.

O?Brien and Watson are tied together in the hot seat. They?re in a situation where disappointing the home base again as they managed to last year could lead to early boos and ultimately mitigate the edge the Texans are supposed to have in welcoming the Bills into town. While O?Brien, also the team?s general manager, has improved the talent level, he?s ramped up expectations. Conservative play-calling and questionable in-game decisions have tried fans? patience. Watson remains in their good graces, but he?s turned the ball over more this season and didn?t take a decided step forward. This is a big day for him.

Buffalo (10-6, 9-6-1) isn?t under the same type of burden. Reaching the playoffs for the second time in his three seasons makes Sean McDermott the most successful head coach since Wade Phillips was let go in ?99, and he?s indeed the winningest coach Buffalo has had of the 10 (head and interim) that have served at the helm for the team this century. Buffalo hasn?t won a playoff game since 1995. Josh Allen will be making his first playoff start and is hoping to become the first Bills quarterback to throw a touchdown in the postseason since Doug Flutie did in a game he started against Dan Marino on Jan. 2, 1999. Yes, it?s been that long.

The Bills fell at Jacksonville 10-3 a couple of years ago and have to fear a similar ending considering that points have been hard to come by in their toughest contests. Second-year QB Josh Allen will be making his first career postseason start but went just 1-4 against playoff teams this season. Buffalo averaged 14.2 points in those games. Although veteran Frank Gore is in the mix, the Bills don?t have a lot of veteran leadership on the offensive side of the ball to lean on as they hit the road. Leading rusher Devin Singletary is a rookie. Top receiver John Brown reached an NFC Championship game with Arizona in ?15 and hasn?t been back since.

Although the Texans? defense has been vulnerable most of the season and has been taken advantage of in the red zone, the return of J.J Watt has the unit encouraged that it can perform their best when it matters most. Houston ranked 28th in total defense but gave up only four yards per rush as opposed to 5.34 without Watt, who obviously also makes the team?s pass rush all the more formidable in coming back from a torn pectoral muscle suffered Oct. 27.

Allen has props of 219.5 passing yards and 36.5 rushing yards available at Caesars. My expectation is that we?ll see him surpass the rushing prop because he?s certainly capable of putting up a big gainer or two on a scramble and often calls his own number on designed runs.

Buffalo would be favored at home given the spread in this contest, which is a nod to its superior defense. The Bills ranked third in yards allowed and gave up just 16.2 points per game. The Texans were 1-5-1 ATS as a favorite while Buffalo has yet to not cover a rod game this season (6-0-2 ATS), winning six of their eight outright. Watson threw for 26 touchdowns and 3,852 yards, while DeAndre Hopkins finished with 1,165 receiving yards and seven touchdown passes. A prop on Hopkins going over 72.5 receiving yards is also attractive, as are any TD props involving tight end Jordan Akins.

Houston has won four of the last five meetings against the Bills, falling in Buffalo in 2015 but owning home victories in ?12, ?14 and most recently, last season. The Texans won 20-13 on Oct. 14, 2018, pulling away on a Jonathan Joseph pick-six of embattled former backup Nathan Peterman, who was in for Allen in the final quarter. Buffalo managed just 12 first downs and 229 total yards. Watson threw for just 177 yards and was picked off twice, but did hook up with Hopkins for a score.

The individual matchup between Hopkins and star Bills corner Tre?Davious White, a first-team All-Pro, should be this game?s most important. Houston?s x-factor will likely be RB Carlos Hyde, who will be tasked with keeping Watson and the offense in manageable passing situations as the workhorse. He topped the 100-yard mark in the big win in Tennessee in Week 15 that ultimately helped the Texans claim the division and will be key in keeping the Buffalo defense from being overly aggressive.

Wrapping up the AFC South entering Week 17 and being locked into the No. 4 seed allowed the Texans to rest starters last season, so they?re well-rested. While Watt is certain to play, O?Brien wasn?t as sure he?d have the services of No. 2 wide receiver Will Fuller, who really makes the Texans offense far more dynamic when he?s been able to play. ESPN Stats & Info reports Houston?s QBR with him in the lineup is 75.2 with him and 59.8 without him while the team?s third-down conversion rate is 51.9 percent when he?s out there and way down at 32.9 when he?s been unavailable. Fuller has dealt with hamstring issues and now a groin injury that has him listed as a game-time decision.

Corners Johnathan Joseph and Bradley Roby are questionable but should play. The Bills list DE Shaq Lawson, WR/KR Andre Roberts, RT Ty Nsekhe and CB Levi Wallace as questionable.

The ?under? went 12-4 in Bills games this season and favored the low side (9-7) in Houston games. For all ?Total Talk? on Saturday?s AFC Wild Card games, read Chris David?s piece click here.


Tennessee at New England (-5, 44.5), 8:15 pm ET, CBS

A pair of Bill Belichick?s proteges may ultimately wind up teaming to end the Tom Brady era in New England with a thud few could?ve seen coming.

Titans head coach Mike Vrabel, who was one of Brady?s favorite teammates and won three Super Bowls with the Patriots over an eight-year span as a player before going into coaching upon his retirement a decade ago, will bring a team that has won five of their last seven games into Foxboro for a ?Wild Card Weekend? date Belichick wanted no part of.

The six-time Super Bowl-winning coach just saw his Patriots fall to his most recent defensive coordinator, Brian Flores, who guided Miami to a stunning 27-24 upset at Gillette Stadium as a 17-point underdog. The talent disparity between both rosters dictated that the game should?ve never been close, yet the Dolphins led for most of Sunday afternoon before Tom Brady led a late rally that Ryan Fitzpatrick erased with one final flourish.

Instead of getting to rest up their ailing bodies while watching the Chiefs welcome in the scary-looking Titans, the Patriots fumbled away the AFC?s second seed and the bye that went along with it and will have to suit up against Tennessee to try and avoid elimination. A defense that had barely allowed 13 points per game suddenly looks vulnerable too since Miami receiver DeVante Parker dominated Stephon Gilmore, arguably the NFL?s top corner, to help seal New England?s demise.

The Titans not only have their passing game clicking behind Ryan Tannehill, who has teamed with rookie A.J. Brown to terrorize defenses over the past few weeks, they also can lean on NFL rushing leader Derrick Henry, who came back after taking a week off to rest a hamstring injury and ran for 211 yards and three scores in a dominant Week 17 win in Houston. The Texans didn?t play starters last week, but the Titans still answered the bell and come in looking sound on both sides of the ball in a must-win game. Tennessee ranks fourth in the NFL in 6.1 yards per play (6.1). Tannehill led the league averaging 9.59 yards per pass attempt and led the Titans to a 30.4 scoring average in his starts.

Beyond the fact that Vrabel played 17 playoff games under Belichick?s watch, giving him great insight to what he?s up against here, he?s also won the only meeting against his mentor as a head coach. The Patriots had won seven straight matchups with Tennessee prior to a 34-10 rout in Nashville on Nov. 11, 2018. Brady threw for 254 yards but failed to throw for a touchdown, while Henry ran for two scores and combined with backup Dion Lewis, a former Patriot, to run for 115 yards. Davis, who had a quiet injury-plagued ?19 regular season, caught seven passes for 125 yards. He?s healthy again.

Top receiver Julian Edelman finished with nine catches for 104 yards in that loss but has been limited to just 10 receptions over the past three weeks and has appeared hampered by a sore knee. There are also physical limitations to worry about as far as Brady is concerned. Although he?s ignored questions about what looks to be pretty obvious elbow discomfort, Brady has been noticeably flapping his arm and jogging in place to stay loose on the sideline.

Midseason acquisition Mohamed Sanu hasn?t had the impact the team expected and rookies N?Keal Harry and Jakobi Meyers are about to learn that playoff football ramps up the intensity to another level. New England scored over 30 points only once over its last nine games, though it did average 27.3 over its past three games.

Brady threw for 4,057 yards in his 20th season but threw for just one 300-yard game since mid-October. He threw for one or fewer touchdowns in half his games. Brady?s completion percentage (60.8%) was its lowest since ?13 and his passer rating ranked 27th in the regular season (88.0), its lowest since he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the ?08 opener. I?d back the ?under? on a passing yards (257.5) prop featuring the legend.

Despite the fact most bettors are likely to tie their fortunes to Brady?s right arm for at least one last time in a home playoff game that might his last as a Patriot, oddsmakers didn?t even set the opening line at six or more points in the matchup against the No. 6 seed. The Westgate Superbook installed the Patriots as a 5.5-point favorite, but that figure was bet down to 4.5 points before climbing back up.

Tannehill is 0-6 in his career at Gillette Stadium, playing victim in New England?s dominance over the Dolphins, so it?s ironic that a Miami win made Foxborough the setting for his first career playoff start instead of Kansas City. While Patrick Mahomes is still feeling his way out through this playoff thing, the 42-year-old Brady will be making his 41st postseason start. Opposing Vrabel in his first playoff game as head coach is Belichick, who is 31-11 in his career (22-19-1 ATS).

Tennessee topped 400 yards six times this season for the first time since 1991. They finished with 5,805 yards of net offense, fourth-highest in team history. Most of New England?s injury-related question marks entering this game lie on the defensive end with CB Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, safety Terrance Brooks and linebackers Jamie Collins and Ja?Whuan Bentley all listed as ?questionable.? Edelman will also don that tag but should play. The Titans list WR Adam Humphries as out but will have tackle Adoree Jackson and tackle Jack Conklin in the mix. Backup WRs Kalif Raymond and Cody Hollister, as is safety Dane Cruikshank due to illness.

Road teams are 8-0 against the spread over the past two seasons on ?Wild Card Weekend,? winning outright five times. Be aware that the forecast calls for a wet, windy night. Temperatures should reside in the 40s and scattered showers are expected throughout.

 

[Udog]

NFL Wild Card Weekend betting cheat sheet: Impact injuries, weather, Pros vs Joes and more
Patrick Everson

Dalvin Cook took a breather in Week 17 to rest his shoulder, but he'll be good to go for Minnesota on Sunday at New Orleans. The Vikings opened +8, and sharp play moved the number to +7.5.

NFL Wild Card Weekend has arrived, and with it a little primer on the four games ? two Saturday, two Sunday. Covers checks in on everything from injury updates to weather to Pros vs. Joes clashes and more, with insights from Eric Osterman, manager at The SuperBook at Westgate in Las Vegas.
Injury Impact

MINNESOTA VIKINGS: The biggest news is that running back Dalvin Cook (shoulder), who sat out last week probably as more a precaution than anything, will play Sunday at New Orleans. ?Cook is worth a half-point,? Osterman said. ?He was one of the top backs in the league this year when he was healthy.? The Vikings opened +8 and moved to +7.5 Tuesday.

HOUSTON TEXANS: Wideout Will Fuller (groin) is questionable Saturday against Buffalo, but Osterman said if he sits, it would probably only be reflected in the juice. ?He is a big part of the Texans? offense. It wouldn?t affect the spread too much, most likely a move from Texans -2.5 (-120) to -2.5 (-110).?

Star defensive end J.J. Watt is returning from a torn pectoral muscle suffered Oct. 27. ?I would say Watt has a similar effect to Fuller at this point. If he goes out there and plays well, then it could be more of an adjustment if the Texans move on.?

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: Put on your Macaulay Culkin shocked face: Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) is questionable for the umpteenth week in a row. Osterman said that had no impact, as The SuperBook fully expected him to play Saturday night at home against Tennessee. The Patriots are -5.5.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES: Tight end Zach Ertz (ribs/back) sat out last week against the Giants and is questionable Sunday at home against Seattle. However, Ertz?s status was already factored into the number by The SuperBook?s oddsmaking team, as was wideout Nelson Agholor (knee) being ruled out for the fifth time in six weeks. The Eagles are 1.5-point underdogs.


Weather Watch

TENNESSEE AT NEW ENGLAND: There?s a 70 percent chance of rain Saturday in Foxborough, Mass., along with winds approaching 20 mph and temperatures in the mid- to high-30s. However: ?No effect on the total in this game. It?s actually gone up.? Indeed, The SuperBook opened the total at 41.5 and reached 44.5 Thursday.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: No precipitation is expected, but it could be a little windy, approaching 20 mph. ?The total has come down a half-point? from the opener. After opening at 45.5 and ticking up to 46, it?s now at 45.
Pros vs. Joes

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: ?A lot of public money on the Saints, and we?ve seen some sharp bets come in on the Vikings. That?s why the line has come down from 8 to 7.5.?

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: ?The Seahawks are the most-bet team so far of all four games. Public money on Seahawks spread and moneyline. Sharps on Eagles a little bit so far.? Seattle is laying 1.5 points.
Reverse Line Moves

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: Picking up on the Pros vs. Joes action, the public cash on the Saints outweighs the sharp play on the Vikings, but the number tightened from New Orleans -8 to -7.5.

SEATTLE AT PHILADELPHIA: Same situation. This line quickly flipped Sunday night from Eagles -1 to Seahawks -1 and stretched to Seattle -2.5 Monday morning. But later Monday, it tightened to Seahawks -1.5 after sharp play on Philly +1.5, even though the public cash on Seattle is greater.

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, JANUARY 4
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

BUF at HOU 04:35 PM
BUF +2.5
O 43.5

TEN at NE 08:15 PM
TEN +4.5
U 45.0

 

[Udog]

WC - Vikings at Saints
Kevin Rogers

The NFC Wild Card round kicks off at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans as the Saints (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) finished with the exact same record as last season when they held home-field advantage in the playoffs. However, since San Francisco and Green Bay owned tiebreakers with identical 13-3 marks, New Orleans was relegated to the Wild Card round for the fifth time since 2010.

The Saints cruised to their third consecutive NFC South title as their three division foes all finished below the .500 mark. New Orleans actually concluded the 2019 season with a better road record (7-1) than at home (6-2), as five playoff teams posted a 7-1 away mark (Chiefs, Ravens, 49ers, and Seahawks the others). The road ledger doesn?t mean much here as the Saints have compiled a 21-6 SU and 13-14 ATS mark in the last three seasons at the Superdome.

After losing the NFC Championship rematch with the Rams in Week 2 and quarterback Drew Brees to a thumb injury, the Saints banded together behind backup Teddy Bridgewater to win five consecutive games. During that unexpected hot stretch, New Orleans won at Seattle and knocked off Dallas in the underdog role, while four of the five wins came as a ?dog. Brees returned in Week 8 against Arizona and continued the winning streak with a blowout of the Cardinals, 31-9 as 12 ?-point favorites.

New Orleans was tripped up by Atlanta following the bye week as 14-point home favorites, 26-9, but the Saints won the next three games to wrap up the NFC South championship on Thanksgiving night. The Saints fell short in the most exciting game of the season against the top-seeded 49ers in Week 14 in a 48-46 setback in spite of 349 yards and five touchdown passes from Brees. New Orleans closed out the regular season with three straight wins by double-digits each, but the scenarios didn?t work out for the Saints to grab a first-round bye.

The Vikings (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) were on the doorstep of the Super Bowl two seasons ago after shocking the Saints in the NFC divisional round (more on that in a moment), but were flattened by the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles in the conference title game. Minnesota fell flat in 2018 with a 8-7-1 record and missed the postseason, but the Vikings rebounded to make the playoffs for the third time in the last five seasons.

Following a 2-2 start, the Vikings won four consecutive games, although only one of those victories came against a playoff squad (Philadelphia in Week 6). Minnesota was in the driver?s seat for a Wild Card berth, but couldn?t catch Green Bay for the top spot in the NFC North as the Vikings lost their final two games of the season to settle for an opening weekend contest in the playoffs.

The Vikings split eight games away from U.S. Bank Stadium this season, as Minnesota eclipsed the 28-point mark in five of those contests. In the role of a road underdog, Mike Zimmer?s squad won at Dallas, but lost to a pair of playoff teams on the road in setbacks to Green Bay and Seattle, while also falling on the highway at Kansas City as a favorite. Dating back to last season, the Vikings have lost seven of eight games to playoff clubs, with the lone victory coming at Philadelphia in 2018.

In one of the most famous playoff finishes in recent memory, the Vikings stunned the Saints, 29-24 in the 2017 divisional round. The ?Minneapolis Miracle? began as a Vikings? blowout with them cruising past New Orleans to a 17-0 halftime lead before Brees rallied the Saints to a 24-23 advantage in the final minute. Case Keenum kept Minnesota?s season alive by hooking up with wide receiver Stefon Diggs on a 61-yard touchdown strike as time expired to give the Vikings the dramatic triumph. However, the Vikings failed to cash as 5 ?-point favorites as Keenum kneeled on a pointless two-point conversion, which ultimately led to a rule change eliminating extra point tries on a walk-off touchdown.

New Orleans and Minnesota didn?t meet this season, but the Saints picked up a modicum of revenge in 2018 with a 30-20 victory at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Saints fell behind in the first half again, trailing 13-7 before New Orleans scored 23 unanswered points, which included three Wil Lutz field goals, an Alvin Kamara touchdown run and an interception return for a touchdown. Brees only threw for 120 yards, compared to the 359 yards racked up Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins, but the former Michigan State standout owns a 2-10 record with the Vikings against teams with winning records.

The Saints have failed to cover in their last three home playoff games since 2017, including in the Wild Card round two seasons ago against Carolina. New Orleans jumped out to a 21-6 advantage as 6 ?-point favorites, while leading 31-19 with 5:08 remaining. However, Panthers? star running back Christian McCaffrey broke away on a 56-yard touchdown pass from Cam Newton to help Carolina grab the road cover in spite of a 31-26 defeat.

Last season, the Saints erased a 14-0 deficit to the Eagles by outscoring Philadelphia, 20-0 over the final three quarters for a 20-14 win in the divisional round as 8 ?-point favorites. The NFC Championship at the Superdome wasn?t so super for the Saints, who squandered a 13-0 lead in a 26-23 overtime setback to the Rams, which was capped off by the pass interference not called in the final two minutes, which would have given New Orleans a first down and run the clock down for the game-winning field goal.

The Vikings last won a Wild Card game in 2004 at Green Bay, while dropping Wild Card contests in 2008, 2012, and 2015. The only good news for Minnesota is at least one road underdog has escaped Wild Card weekend in the NFC in three of the past four seasons, including Philadelphia?s 16-15 triumph of Chicago last season.

 

[Udog]

WC - Seahawks at Eagles
Kevin Rogers

The final Wild Card contest of the weekend takes place at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia showcasing the lone home underdog in this round. The Eagles (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) owned the worst record of any of the 12 playoff teams, but by virtue of winning the NFC East crown, they are able to remain at home in the opening round.

Philadelphia didn?t look like it would head to the playoffs after getting shocked at Miami as 10 ?-point road favorites, 37-31 in Week 13. The Eagles slipped to 5-7, but finished December strong by winning their final four games, including a crucial 17-9 home triumph over the Cowboys in Week 16. Philadelphia moved into the driver?s seat of capturing the division title as the Eagles grabbed the crown in the season finale against the Giants in a 34-17 rout to clinch their third straight playoff berth under head coach Doug Pederson.

Quarterback Carson Wentz is making his playoff debut after injuries derailed the past two seasons for the second pick of the 2016 draft. Wentz is coming off a career-high 4,039 yards passing this season, which included not one wide receiver racking up more than 500 yards. Two tight ends posted above 500 yards receiving, including Zach Ertz, who put up 918 yards and six touchdowns as he looks to suit up after missing the Week 17 win at New York with a rib injury.

The Eagles are not only riding a four-game winning streak, but have covered each of their last three contests. Only two of Philadelphia?s nine victories came against playoff squads an each of those wins came on the road at Green Bay and Buffalo. In three opportunities as a home underdog, the Eagles scored a total of 36 points, while owning a 1-2 SU/ATS record with a win over Dallas and losses to New England and Seattle.

The Seahawks (11-5 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) squandered an excellent opportunity to take home the NFC West title for the first time since 2016, but couldn?t take care of its business at CenturyLink Field. Seattle headed into Week 16 tied with San Francisco at 11-3 atop the division with two home games remaining, but lost to Arizona in Week 16 as eight-point favorites, 27-13.

In spite of that unexpected defeat, Pete Carroll?s squad still had a chance to win the NFC West by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker against San Francisco, but the Seahawks didn?t pull off the season sweep of the 49ers. San Francisco jumped out to a 13-0 halftime lead, as Seattle rallied to creep within 26-21, while having an opportunity to win in the final minute. The Seahawks were within one yard of a division title, but were stuffed at the goal line on fourth down as Seattle has to travel cross-country for the playoff opener.

Quarterback Russell Wilson likely won?t win the league MVP due to the breakout season from Baltimore?s Lamar Jackson, but the Seattle signal-caller racked up the second-most passing yards in his career (4,110), while throwing 31 touchdowns and a career-low five interceptions. The battered Seahawks? backfield received some help from a familiar face as Marshawn Lynch came out of retirement to sign with Seattle and scored a one-yard touchdown in the loss to San Francisco.

Seattle excelled away from the Pacific Northwest this season by compiling a 7-1 record on the highway. The Seahawks ventured to the Eastern Time Zone five times and won all five games at Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Carolina. Granted, Seattle faced three backup quarterbacks (Mason Rudolph, Matt Schaub, and Kyle Allen), but the Seahawks topped the 28-point mark in three of those contests. Seattle handed San Francisco its first loss of the season in Week 10 as an underdog, while putting together a 2-1-1 ATS mark as a road favorite.

The Eagles have covered all five playoff games under Pederson the last two seasons, although Nick Foles was the quarterback and not Wentz. Philadelphia knocked off Atlanta and Minnesota as an underdog on its run to the franchise?s first Super Bowl title in 2017, while cashing in the ?dog role against Chicago and New Orleans last season. The last time a home team was listed as an underdog in the Wild Card round came in 2015 when a trio of clubs lost as the Bengals (+2) fell to the Steelers, 18-16, the Texans (+3) were blanked by the Chiefs, 30-0, and the Vikings (+4 ?) dropped a 10-9 decision to the Seahawks.

The Seahawks have won the past five meetings with the Eagles dating back to 2011, capped off by a 17-9 triumph at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 12 as one-point favorites. Seattle put together its best defensive effort of the season as Philadelphia was limited to a field goal until scoring its lone touchdown with 20 seconds remaining trailing, 17-3. The Eagles shot themselves in the foot multiple times by turning the ball over five times, including a pair of interceptions thrown by Wentz. In three career starts against Seattle, Wentz is 0-3, while the Eagles have scored 9, 10, and 15 points in those matchups.

Seattle thrived on the road this season, but that hasn?t been the same story in the playoffs of late. The Seahawks have lost three consecutive away contests in the postseason, including a 24-22 setback at Dallas last January. Seattle owns a 2-4 SU/ATS record as a road favorite in the playoffs with Wilson at quarterback, as the last postseason victory away from CenturyLink Field came in the 2015 Wild Card round at Minnesota.

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, JANUARY 5
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at NO 01:05 PM
NO -7.5
U 49.5

SEA at PHI 04:40 PM
SEA +1.0
U 45.0

 

[Udog]

 

[Udog]

AFC Divisional Notes

Tennessee at Baltimore

Saturday, Jan. 11 (CBS, 8:05 p.m. ET)

Titans Road Record: 6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS, 5-4 O/U
Ravens Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U

Record versus Playoff Teams
Includes Wild Card Results

Tennessee: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 3-3 O/U
Baltimore: 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS, 2-4 O/U

Opening Odds

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Baltimore as a 10-point favorite while the total was sent out at 49. The number on the Ravens has dropped to -9 ? and the ?over/under? has dropped to 48 at the Westgate while a couple other sportsbooks have gone down to 47 ?.

2019 Off the Bye

Baltimore has been one of the best teams when playing with rest under head coach John Harbaugh. Since he started in 2018, the Ravens have gone 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS. This season, they blasted the Patriots 37-20 in Week 8 after their bye week. During Harbaugh?s tenure, Baltimore has only earned a playoff bye once when it was the No. 2 seed during the 2011 campaign. The Ravens defeated the Texans 20-13 but failed to cover as 7 ?-point favorites. Following that win, Baltimore would end up losing 23-20 at New England in the AFC Championship.

Head-to-Head

Prior to 2019, these teams met in each of the previous regular seasons with Tennessee capturing a 23-20 win at home in 2017 before Baltimore avenged that loss with a 21-0 victory at Nashville in 2018. The Ravens had Joe Flacco at quarterback in that road win while the Titans has Marcus Mariota under center.

Baltimore has won four straight (2-2 ATS) games against AFC South foes, which includes a 41-7 rout of Houston in Week 11 of this year?s season. Tennessee blasted Cleveland 43-13 in Week 1 as a 5 ?-point road underdog and that helped the team improve to 5-2 over their last seven encounters against teams from the AFC North.

Playoff Notes

Baltimore has gone 10-6 SU and 11-5 all-time in the playoffs under Harbaugh but only three of those games took place at home where the team went 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS. This is the largest point-spread that Baltimore has been favored by in the playoffs under Harbaugh. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has only played in one playoff game and he?s 0-1 after the Ravens dropped a 23-17 decision to the Chargers as three-point home favorites in the Wild Card round.

Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel won his first career playoff game last Saturday as the Titans defeated the Patriots 20-13 as five-point road underdogs. Tennessee went 1-1 in the 2017 postseason, both games played on the road. The win over New England was also the first for Titans QB Ryan Tannehill.

Total Notes

Tennessee has watched the ?over? go 10-7, which included a 5-4 mark away from home. Since Tannehill took over as starter, the Titans have seen the ?over? go 9-2 and the team has scored 20 or more points in every game. Baltimore averaged 33.2 points per game on offense, which was ranked first in the league but the attack was more explosive (36.5 PPG) on the road than at home (29.9 PPG). The ?over/under? produced 4-4 results at M&T Bank Stadium and that was helped with strong defensive scoring averages (18.6 PPG).

Dating back to 2000, the Ravens have seen the ?under? cash in six straight home playoff games and only two opponents were able to score more than 20 points. Including last Saturday?s result at Foxboro, Tennessee has watched the ?under? cash in six of their last seven playoff games.

Going back to 2014, the Ravens have seen the ?under? go 7-2-1 against AFC South opponents and that includes a 4-0-1 mark at home. The defense only allowed 14.6 PPG. Meanwhile, the Titans have watched the ?over? go 7-3 versus AFC North teams during the same span.


Houston at Kansas City

Sunday, Jan. 12 (CBS, 3:05 p.m. ET)

Texans Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS, 3-5 O/U
Chiefs Home Record: 5-3 SU, 4-3-1 ATS, 5-3 O/U

2019 Record versus Playoff Teams

Includes Wild Card Results

Houston: 4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Kansas City: 3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS, 5-1 O/U

Opening Odds

The SuperBook sent out Kansas City as a 7 ?-point home favorite and that number was quickly pushed up to Chiefs -9. The total opened 50 and has been moved to 49 at the Las Vegas outfit.

Off the Bye

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid owns an eye-opening 18-3 overall record in his career when his teams are playing with rest in the regular season. While most of the success came during his tenure with Philadelphia (13-1), he does own a 5-2 record with the Chiefs. This season, Kansas City diced up Oakland 40-9 in Week 13 after its ?bye? week. When playing with rest in the playoffs, Reid has gone 4-1 in the Divisional Playoff round.

Head-to-Head

The two teams have met twice in the last three regular seasons and the road team has won both matchups. Kansas City captured a 42-34 win at NRG stadium in 2017 while Houston earned a 31-24 at Arrowhead this year in Week 6.

Houston has gone 5-2 in its last seven games against the AFC West and it?s been perfect on the road versus this division, going 3-0 both SU and ATS as underdogs.

Kansas City defeated Jacksonville 40-26 in Week 1 but it closed the season with three consecutive losses to AFC South clubs, two of the setbacks coming at home.

Playoff Notes

Reid owns a 12-14 career record in the playoffs and he hasn?t had much success with Kansas City, going 2-5. At Arrowhead Stadium, the Chiefs have gone 1-3 under Reid in the playoffs and the lone win came in last year?s Divisional Playoff round against Indianapolis (31-13). Prior to the win over the Colts last season, Kansas City had dropped six straight at home in the playoffs with the last win coming in 1994.

Houston?s 22-19 overtime victory against Buffalo in last week?s Wild Card matchup pushed the club to 4-5 all-time in the postseason. Texans head coach Bill O?Brien is 2-3 and that includes a 0-1 mark on the road. Houston is 0-3 in the Divisional Playoff round, losing by an average of 12.6 PPG.

Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Texans signal caller Deshaun Watson both own 1-1 records in the playoffs. The difference is that Kansas City has scored exactly 31 points in their games with him at QB while Watson has managed 7 and 22 points, the latter coming last Saturday at home. The Texans failed to score in the first-half of both those games and this will be the first road playoff start for the former Clemson standout.

Total Notes

The Texans own a 10-7 ?under? record this season and the low side went 5-3 away from home but the defense surrendered 31.6 PPG in three road games versus playoff teams. Kansas City saw the ?over/under? go 8-8 overall in the regular season, but it closed the season on a 5-1 ?under? run. The defense only allowed 11.5 PPG during this final stretch but that number could be misleading with five games against non-playoff squads. The ?over? went 5-3 at Arrowhead this stadium and that includes a 4-0 mark to the high side against postseason teams. The defense gave up 28.3 PPG in those games.

Houston has watched the ?under? go 5-4 in its only nine playoff games. Kansas City has watched the ?under? go 4-3 with Reid on the sidelines in the postseason. In his two coaching playoff wins with the Chiefs, they allowed a combined 13 points scored and the ?under? connected easily in both games.