CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

[Cnotes53]

NFL odds Week 9: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Drew Brees and the Saints barely escaped Chicago with a 26-23 overtime victory against the Bears. Next up for New Orleans is a trip to Tampa Bay, where The SuperBook has the Buccaneers -4.5.

NFL Week 8 is just about in the rearview mirror, with NFL Week 9 odds on the betting board and already getting some action. The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers collide under the Thursday night lights, and the Sunday nighter pits the New Orleans Saints against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 9 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting.

NFL Week 9 odds

These are the current NFL Week 9 odds, as of November 1.

Teams on bye: Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles, Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals

Packers at 49ers odds
Opening line
49ers +2.5, Over/Under 50.5

Why the line moved
"We opened Packers -2.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The public will be all over the Packers here. They?ll fall in love with the cheap road favorite, especially after seeing the 49ers get rolled today." Indeed, San Francisco went to Seattle as a 1-point underdog and trailed 30-7 in the fourth quarter, though the Niners rallied to make it respectable in a 37-27 loss.

Seahawks at Bills odds
Opening line
Bills +3, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
The Seahawks, coming off a nice win over the 49ers, opened -3 (even) and stuck there Sunday night for this cross-country trek to Buffalo next weekend.

"This will be one of our most one-sided games on Sunday," Murray said. "Buffalo is 6-2, but really hasn?t been that impressive. Seattle rolled again today. This will be a huge-need game for us on Sunday."

Broncos at Falcons odds
Opening line
Falcons -4.5, Over/Under 47.5

Why the line moved
The Broncos trailed the Chargers 24-3 midway through the third quarter Sunday, but rallied for a 31-30 victory, capped by a touchdown on the game's last play. Atlanta notched a 25-17 win at Carolina in the Week 8 Thursday nighter, so the Falcons will have a little more rest this week. There was no movement on the line or the total Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Bears at Titans odds
Opening line
Titans -6.5, Over/Under 46.5

Why the line moved
"We opened Titans -6.5 and took some money on the Bears, and moved down to 6," Murray said. "All of a sudden, the Titans are on a losing skid, and we know the Bears are almost always a popular betting option with the public. This may be that rare game where we need the favorite."

Lions at Vikings odds
Opening line
Vikings -3.5, Over/Under 53.5

Why the line moved
Minnesota snagged a nice 28-22 upset win at Green Bay on Sunday, while Detroit got rolled at home 41-21 by Indianapolis. The SuperBook opened the Vikings -3.5 and the total 53.5, and there was no movement Sunday night.

Ravens at Colts odds
Opening line
Colts +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
"We opened the Ravens -2.5 and quickly moved to -3," Murray said. "Interesting game. We?ve really only seen Baltimore beat bad teams. And the Ravens just lost Ronnie Stanley for the year."

Stanley, Baltimore's All-Pro left tackle, suffered a broken left ankle in Sunday's 28-24 home loss to Pittsburgh.

"The Colts are quietly 5-2 and probably should be 6-1," Murray said. "Look for the public to back the Ravens, but they?ll be more hesitant to jump in on this one than they are with the Packers and Seahawks."

Panthers at Chiefs odds
Opening line
Chiefs -11.5, Over/Under 51

Why the line moved
Kansas City went off as a 19.5-point home favorite against the New York Jets on Sunday, the largest spread so far this season, and coasted to a 35-9 win and cover. Carolina lost at home to Atlanta 25-17 as a short fave in the Thursday nighter. So it's no surprise that Murray & Co. opened the Chiefs -11.5. There was no movement Sunday night on the line or the total.

Texans at Jaguars odds
Opening line
Jaguars +7, Over/Under 51.5

Why the line moved

Both these teams are coming off a bye, and both needed it: Houston is 1-6 SU and ATS, and Jacksonville is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. The first move on this game was toward the home 'dog, with the Jaguars moving to +6.5 Sunday night. The total was stable at 51.5.

Giants at Washington odds
Opening line
Washington -3, Over/Under 43

Why the line moved
New York is 1-6 SU, Washington is 2-5 SU?and they're both in the hunt for a division title in the awful NFC East. The SuperBook moved Washington to -3.5 Sunday night, while the total stuck at 43.

Raiders at Chargers odds
Opening line
Chargers -3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas ground out a 16-6 win at Cleveland on Sunday, while Los Angeles blew a 24-3 lead at Denver and lost 31-30. So bettors quickly cut this spread in half Sunday night, with the Chargers dropping to -1.5 at The SuperBook.

"We did take some Raiders money, and that line was put up before yet another epic Chargers collapse," Murray said.

Steelers at Cowboys odds
Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh rallied from a 17-7 halftime deficit to beat Baltimore 28-24 on the road Sunday, while Dallas and third-string QB Ben DiNucci lost at Philadelphia 23-9 in the Sunday nighter. Murray said The SuperBook held off posting the Steelers-Cowboys line, waiting for clarity on whether Andy Dalton (concussion) returns at QB or if the rookie DiNucci is again the starter.

Regardless, the Steelers will likely be laying double digits. Murray said the line will be in the range of Pittsburgh -10 if Dalton starts for Dallas and Pittsburgh -13 if DiNucci starts.

Dolphins at Cardinals odds
Opening line
Cardinals -5.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Arizona had a bye this week, and perhaps that was fortuitous, as there were reports Sunday that two players tested positive for COVID-19 this weekend. That news broke after The SuperBook posted the opening number of Cardinals -5.5, and the book then took the game off the board while awaiting clarity on the situation. Miami, behind rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa, is coming off a solid 28-17 home win over the Los Angeles Rams.

Saints at Bucs odds
Opening line
Buccaneers -4.5, Over/Under 54.5

Why the line moved
New Orleans blew a 20-3 lead but got out of Chicago with a 26-23 overtime victory Sunday, while Tampa Bay still has Week 8 work to do in the Monday nighter at the New York Giants.

"We opened Bucs -4.5 and are still there," Murray said Sunday night. "The Saints seem to barely escape week after week. Drew Brees can?t throw the ball more than 10 yards down the field. I think the public will bet the Bucs pretty hard here, especially if they roll the Giants on Monday night."

The total was also stable Sunday night at 54.5.

Patriots at Jets odds
Opening line
Jets +7.5, Over/Under 41

Why the line moved
Post-Tom Brady, New England is a shell of itself, with a 2-5 SU record (3-4 ATS) after Sunday's 24-21 loss at Buffalo. But New York is the worst team in the league, at 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS. It's not much of a marquee Monday night matchup, but The SuperBook opened the Patriots -7.5 and the total 41, with no movement Sunday night.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL betting tips for Week 9: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Las Vegas Raiders picked up an ugly 16-6 win at Cleveland in Week 8 but it was a serious character victory for Vegas, playing in an early 1 p.m. ET start in wind, rain and snow. Vegas is seeing early action versus the Chargers in Week 9.

By Week 9 of the NFL schedule, books and bettors are supposed to have a solid grasp on the contenders and pretenders. However, in this wonderful and whacky 2020 season, NFL betting has proven even more challenging with teams trying on both of those hats over the past eight weeks.

The best NFL betting strategy in all this madness is to get the best of the number for your wager. With the NFL Week 9 odds fresh out of the oven, here are our NFL betting tips for the spreads and totals to bet now and the ones to bet later.

Las Vegas Raiders (+1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers: Bet Now

This AFC West spread opened as big as Bolts -2.5 and is quickly moving towards pick?em after another classic Chargers? collapse against the Broncos Sunday. Los Angeles is now 0-8 SU and 1-6-1 ATS against divisional foes since 2019.

The Raiders are coming off an ugly 16-6 win on the road in Cleveland, but that victory came in a 1 p.m. ET start (normally kryptonite for this franchise) and in less-than Las Vegas conditions (wind, rain, snow). The Silver and Black have played their best football away from the fancy new Sin City Stadium, going 3-1 SU and ATS on the road this year.

If you believe in the Silver and Black or just can?t bear another bad beat from the Bolts, snatch up Las Vegas and as many points as you can now before this line jumps the fence.

Detroit Lions (+3) at Minnesota Vikings: Bet Later

These NFC North foes were headed in different directions until Week 8, when the Vikings stunned the Packers at Lambeau and the Lions laid a big stinky egg hosting the Colts. This spread opened at the customary field goal for a divisional rivalry, but Minnesota -3 is now heavily juiced and a half-point hook is on the way.

Detroit laid down for a lot of points versus the Colts, however, the game can really be boiled down to a Matt Stafford strip-sack in the fourth quarter, which broke the Lions' back and erased any chance of a comeback. It snapped a two-game winning streak by Detroit, which had also won and covered in three of its last four.

The Vikings picked up just their second victory of the season in Week 8 and are now ripe for a major letdown spot after winning at Lambeau Field for the first time since 2017. Minnesota is the poster child for inconsistency, so if you like the Lions you may want to wait it out and get that oh-so valuable half-point at +3.5.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (Under 45): Bet Now

Something is rotten in Raventown. Baltimore?s once-mighty offense is bringing up the rear in passing yards and reigning MVP Lamar Jackson has looked plain pedestrian over the past four games, struggling with accuracy and boasting a TD-to-INT count of 7-to-4 after tossing 36 touchdowns to only six interceptions in 2019.

On top of Jackson?s woes, the Ravens? rushing attack could be missing a few gears with RB Mark Ingram a big question mark for Week 9 (ankle) and standout left tackle Ronnie Stanley lost for the season (broken ankle). Baltimore visits one of the NFL?s stingiest defenses in the Colts, who regained some clout on that side of the ball with a 41-21 win over Detroit on Sunday?forcing three fumbles (recovering one) and scoring a pick-6 to put the Lions away.

The total opened as high as 46.5 points Sunday night and quickly started ticking down with one-sided action on the Under. This total is at 45 as of late Sunday night but some books have taxed the Under to -115. If you like a low-scoring finish in Indy, bet this Under at the key number now.

Seattle Seahawks at Buffalo Bills (Over 51): Bet Later

Had this game been scheduled four weeks ago, this total may have flirted with 60 points. And while the Seahawks have kept their scoring output redlining through seven games (34.1 points per game?No. 1 in NFL) the Bills have not, suffering a major drop-off in scoring the past four games. Buffalo has averaged only 18.75 points since Week 5.

If there ever was a team to get right against, it?s Seattle. This defense sits dead last in total yards allowed and has given up 29 passing plays of 20 or more yards, and seven of 40-plus. That?s just what Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs and this receiving corps need to get their long-bomb groove back.

The Over/Under for this non-conference clash opened as high as 54.5 at some books but a market correction swiftly trimmed 1.5 off the top and then money on the Under booked it down to 51. If you expect the return of the Bills? big plays and Russell Wilson to be Russell Wilson, wait to see how low this number goes before banging the Over gong.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Week 9
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 9 Betting Angles

Fading NFL teams before a Thursday Night Football game is the gift that just keeps on giving, as both the Packers and 49ers fell rather easily this past week to the Vikings and Seahawks respectively.

Fading these teams pre-TNF on the outright money line is now 12-2 SU (85.7%) thanks to those wins by Minnesota and Seattle, and next up this week it calls for outright plays against the Colts and Titans, who are slated for a TNF game in Week 10.

And one more thing before I forget to comment on the Seahawks, as they benefited from being on the right side of that angle thanks to their defense actually deciding to play some defense for the first three quarters of that win.

Quarterback Russell Wilson continues to be the favorite for the MVP award as he and wide receiver DK Metcalf continue to carry this team, Seattle fans might want to tell Metcalf he might not want to campaign so hard for Wilson to win the league's Most Valuable Player award this season.

The NFL has not seen a league MVP go on to win the Super Bowl in their MVP season this century (20 years), as the last to do it was Kurt Warner with the Rams in 1999. Individual awards are always nice, but the goal every year is to hoist that Lombardi Trophy and working against that type of history is quite the uphill climb.

(Also, if you do believe Wilson will win the MVP this year, Seattle futures tickets may not be the best idea right now).

This week the hot and cold streaks shift to non-conference affairs as there are six of them on tap in Week 9 and there are some interesting runs going on in these AFC/NFC games. Heck, we've even got the Seattle Seahawks involved in one of them as well.

Let's get to it:

Who's Hot

Since the start of Week 4, road teams in non-conference games are 13-4 SU and 13-3-1 ATS

This is something I sat on last week as there were only two non-conference games on the slate, and road teams ended up going 1-1 SU and ATS with the Colts winning in Detroit, and the Rams losing in Miami.

But Week 7 saw all three road teams in non-conference games get the SU and ATS money (Green Bay over Houston, Tampa over Las Vegas, and SF over New England) as it just continued on down the path it had started weeks prior.

It is interesting to note that the LA Chargers have had a unique role in this non-conference run, as they covered the spread in both of their opportunities ? vs Tampa Bay and New Orleans ? and had they not done Chargers things in those games, the SU record could actually be much better for road teams here.

Who Do You Follow?

Broncos
Seahawks
Panthers
Bears
Dolphins
Steelers

Week 9 brings us the following non-conference games: Denver (+4) at Atlanta, Seattle (-2.5) at Buffalo, Carolina (+12) at Kansas City, Chicago (+6) at Tennessee, Miami (+4.5) at Arizona, and Pittsburgh (no line) at Dallas.

Among those contests are some interesting betting opportunities, as once again in these Hot/Not pieces we've found yet another reason to fade the Dallas Cowboys. I got up on Monday morning actually a little baffled at all the negative reaction to that Cowboys/Eagles game on SNF for how bad it was.

It wasn't the fact that the game turned out to be awful that was baffling, it was the fact that everyone complaining about it being a garbage dump of a game couldn't see it coming beforehand. I tried to warn you all about it in my SNF preview, but to each his own.

Who knows how high that line for the Steelers ? the league's last remaining unbeaten ? gets against the Cowboys this week, but if bettors needed yet another reason to fade what's going on in Jerry World, this would be it.

Having Carolina and Atlanta involved in two non-conference games off their TNF game is interesting as well given they do have the extra rest angle in their favor. Following this run would suggest backing the Panthers and going against the Falcons, but in both cases it's always better to do a lot more digging before you settle in on any play.

In terms of favorites/underdogs, there isn't as big of a discrepancy as the road/home splits for these recent non-conference games, as underdogs are 9-7-1 ATS against the closing line in that span.

Just another thing to keep in mind if there is some hesitance to back the Seahawks or Steelers simply because they are the favorites.

Who's Not

Expecting lower point totals in these non-conference games; Since the start of Week 4, non-conference games have averaged 55.29 points per game

Outlining things this way helps differentiate from the overall O/U record which sits at 10-7 O/U for the 17 non-conference games during this time.

Some of those 'unders' did stay low by the hook or a single point though, which makes the fact that the average point total in these games much more actionable.

Furthermore, only two of those 17 games finished with less than 45 total points scored, as they were the Colts/Bears game (30 total points) and Cardinals/Jets game (40 total points) in recent weeks.

The offenses the Jets and Bears possess right now are so bad that taking any 'over' with them is tough to begin with.

Chicago is involved again in this scenario this week, but they do face a Titans team that gives up 61.86% 3rd down conversion rate this year (a league worst this year and one of the worst numbers we've seen in decades), so who knows, maybe Chicago's offense ends up looking competent this week.

But with 15 of the 17 recent AFC/NFC games seeing at least 45 combined points, and 11 of the 17 games finishing with at least 54 points, it's this average of 55.29 points per game that could be critical this week.

Not one total in the five non-conference games with a line posted have a total currently listed higher than 53.5 (Seattle/Buffalo), and prior to the Miami/Arizona game coming off the board here, three of the five games had posted totals still in the 40's.

Now pairing up these two runs (road teams + high scoring games) to look at going 'over' the team totals of these road squads is something I didn't look at specifically, but it goes to reason that going that route would make a lot of sense.

So if you are looking for 'overs' in Week 9, in any form, it would make some sense to start with these non-conference games first to see what else you can find.

Play the Over Where?

Denver-Atlanta (50)
Seattle-Buffalo (54.5)
Carolina-Kansas City (52.5)
Chicago-Tennessee (46.5)
Miami-Arizona (48)
Pittsburgh-Dallas (NA)

 

[Cnotes53]

301GREEN BAY -302 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against teams who force 0.75 or less turnovers/game on the season since 1992.

451SEATTLE -452 BUFFALO
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) in road games versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.

453DENVER -454 ATLANTA
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 2 seasons.

453DENVER -454 ATLANTA
Vic Fangio is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse (Coach of DENVER)

455CHICAGO -456 TENNESSEE
CHICAGO is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1992.

457DETROIT -458 MINNESOTA
DETROIT is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) vs. very bad defensive teams who give up 27 or more points/game since 1992.

459BALTIMORE -460 INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS are 13-2 ATS (10.8 Units) in home games vs. excellent teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season since 1992.

461CAROLINA -462 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) versus good offensive teams - averaging >=350 yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

463HOUSTON -464 JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. over the last 2 seasons.

465NY GIANTS -466 WASHINGTON
NY GIANTS are 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the last 3 seasons.

467LAS VEGAS -468 LA CHARGERS
LA CHARGERS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 2 seasons.

469PITTSBURGH -470 DALLAS
DALLAS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread in the current season.

471MIAMI -472 ARIZONA
MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in weeks 5 - 9 in the last 2 seasons.

473NEW ORLEANS -474 TAMPA BAY
NEW ORLEANS are 6-0 ATS (6 Units) in road games after having won 4 out of their last 5 games in the last 2 seasons.

475NEW ENGLAND -476 NY JETS
NEW ENGLAND is 22-7 ATS (14.3 Units) in road games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9

Thursday, November 5

Green Bay @ San Francisco

Game 301-302
November 5, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Green Bay
137.383
San Francisco
128.451
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Green Bay
by 9
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 2 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Green Bay
(-2 1/2); Under


Sunday, November 8

Detroit @ Minnesota

Game 457-458
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
128.544
Minnesota
130.233
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 1 1/2
55
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 4
53
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+4); Over

Denver @ Atlanta

Game 453-454
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
129.781
Atlanta
131.180
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 4
50
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+4); Under

Houston @ Jacksonville

Game 463-464
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
123.022
Jacksonville
123.748
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 1
58
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 6 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(+6 1/2); Over

Carolina @ Kansas City

Game 461-462
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Carolina
126.562
Kansas City
144.730
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 18
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 10
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas City
(-10); Under

Seattle @ Buffalo

Game 451-452
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
138.242
Buffalo
128.926
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 9 1/2
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 2 1/2
54
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-2 1/2); Under

Chicago @ Tennessee

Game 455-456
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Chicago
124.654
Tennessee
139.399
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tennessee
by 14 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tennessee
by 5 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tennessee
(-5 1/2); Over

Baltimore @ Indianapolis

Game 459-460
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
143.735
Indianapolis
131.356
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
by 12 1/2
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Baltimore
by 4
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(-4); Under

NY Giants @ Washington

Game 465-466
November 8, 2020 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Giants
121.495
Washington
129.973
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 8 1/2
37
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Washington
by 3 1/2
43
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(-3 1/2); Under

Las Vegas @ LA Chargers

Game 467-468
November 8, 2020 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
135.013
LA Chargers
126.119
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Las Vegas
by 9
60
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 2 1/2
52 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Las Vegas
(+2 1/2); Over

Miami @ Arizona

Game 471-472
November 8, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
134.112
Arizona
141.474
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Arizona
by 7 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Arizona
by 4 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Arizona
(-4 1/2); Over

Pittsburgh @ Dallas

Game 469-470
November 8, 2020 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
141.935
Dallas
116.901
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 25
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
N/A

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay

Game 473-474
November 8, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
137.640
Tampa Bay
134.562
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 3
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
by 5 1/2
55
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(+5 1/2); Under


Monday November 9

New England @ NY Jets

Game 475-476
November 9, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New England
127.678
NY Jets
117.877
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 10
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 7
41
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-7); Over

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, November 5

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GREEN BAY (5 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 4) - 11/5/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 202-148 ATS (+39.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 8

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SEATTLE (6 - 1) at BUFFALO (6 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
BUFFALO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (3 - 4) at ATLANTA (2 - 6) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (5 - 3) at TENNESSEE (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 55-32 ATS (+19.8 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 35-57 ATS (-27.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 18-35 ATS (-20.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (3 - 4) at MINNESOTA (2 - 5) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 150-189 ATS (-57.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (5 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CAROLINA (3 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (7 - 1) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
CAROLINA is 125-95 ATS (+20.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (1 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 6) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 5-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (1 - 6) at WASHINGTON (2 - 5) - 11/8/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 40-66 ATS (-32.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 33-55 ATS (-27.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 63-99 ATS (-45.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 95-127 ATS (-44.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 95-127 ATS (-44.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 95-127 ATS (-44.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 27-51 ATS (-29.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 4-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LAS VEGAS (4 - 3) at LA CHARGERS (2 - 5) - 11/8/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 57-86 ATS (-37.6 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 43-85 ATS (-50.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 53-30 ATS (+20.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 2-2 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (7 - 0) at DALLAS (2 - 6) - 11/8/2020, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (4 - 3) at ARIZONA (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (5 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (5 - 2) - 11/8/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 66-43 ATS (+18.7 Units) in November games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 65-44 ATS (+16.6 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 9

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NEW ENGLAND (2 - 5) at NY JETS (0 - 8) - 11/9/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 131-99 ATS (+22.1 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 131-99 ATS (+22.1 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 97-68 ATS (+22.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 210-155 ATS (+39.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 105-78 ATS (+19.2 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 106-75 ATS (+23.5 Units) off a division game since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 133-93 ATS (+30.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 74-50 ATS (+19.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
NY JETS are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
NY JETS are 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
NY JETS are 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL

Week 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 5

Green Bay @ San Francisco
Green Bay
Green Bay is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games
Green Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay


Sunday, November 8

Carolina @ Kansas City
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Carolina is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 16-1 SU in its last 17 games
Kansas City is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home

Detroit @ Minnesota
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Detroit's last 13 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

Chicago @ Tennessee
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Chicago is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games

Seattle @ Buffalo
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Seattle is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Seattle
Buffalo is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

Denver @ Atlanta
Denver
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 10 games when playing Denver

Baltimore @ Indianapolis
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Houston @ Jacksonville
Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Jacksonville's last 16 games at home

NY Giants @ Washington
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Washington
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games at home

Las Vegas @ LA Chargers
Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Las Vegas's last 7 games when playing LA Chargers
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games when playing at home against Las Vegas

Miami @ Arizona
Miami
Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Miami
Arizona is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Pittsburgh @ Dallas
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing New Orleans


Monday, November 9

New England @ NY Jets
New England
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 8 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Jets's last 8 games when playing New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 6 games when playing at home against New England

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Packers (5-2) @ San Francisco (4-4)
? Green Bay lost two of last three games, after a 4-0 start.
? Packers scored 30+ points in their wins; 10-22 points in losses.
? Green Bay converted 42-85 third down plays (49.4%)
? Packers are 7-8 ATS in last 15 games as a road favorite.
? Last four Green Bay games stayed under the total.

? Mullens gets start at QB, replacing injured Garoppolo (ankle).
? 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 24-25-43-37 in their losses.
? 49ers lost three of their four home games SU.
? Three of their four home games stayed under the total.
? 49ers are 8-10 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

? 49ers won six of last eight series games; they beat Green Bay 37-20 in LY?s playoffs.
? Packers lost four of last five visits here; they lost 37-8/37-20 here LY.

Seahawks (6-1) @ Buffalo (6-2)
? Seattle won six of its first seven games, scoring 35.6 ppg.
? Seahawks have scored 32 TD?s on 72 drives this season.
? Seattle is 7-2-4 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite.
? Seahawks allowed 23+ points in every game this year.
? Six of their seven games went over the total.

? Bills scored 30.8 ppg in first four games, 18.8 ppg in last four.
? In its last four games, Buffalo was outscored 50-33 in first half.
? Bills scored 24+ points in five of their six wins; 16-17 in their losses.
? Buffalo is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog.
? Six of their eight games went over the total.

? Seattle is 8-5 against the Bills.
? Seahawks lost two of three trips to Buffalo; last one was in ?08.

Broncos (3-4) @ Atlanta (2-6)
? Denver won three of last four games, after an 0-3 start.
? Broncos gave up 26+ points in five of their last six games.
? Denver covered all three of its road games this year.
? Broncos are 7-3 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
? Denver rallied from a 24-3 deficit to beat the Chargers 31-30 LW.

? Falcons won two of last three games, after an 0-5 start.
? Atlanta led five of its eight games at halftime.
? Falcon opponents converted only 8 of last 30 third down plays.
? Atlanta is 5-10 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, 0-3 TY.
? Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

? Falcons won three of last four series games.
? Broncos are 4-3 in seven visits to Atlanta.

Bears (5-3) @ Tennessee (5-2)
? Bears lost their last two games, after a 5-1 start.
? Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
? Bears are 5-4 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog, 3-1 TY.
? Chicago won three of its four road games, losing 24-10 in LA.
? Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

? Five of seven Tennessee games were decided by 3 or fewer points, or in OT
? Titans lost two of last three games, after a 4-0 start.
? Tennessee won three of four home games, winning by 3-26-6(ot) points.
? Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.
? Titans are 4-7-1 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.

? Home side lost last five series games.
? Teams split their 12 meetings.
? Bears won last three visits here, by 3-2-31 points.

Detroit (3-4) @ Minnesota (2-5)
? Lions allowed 27+ points in their four losses; 23-16-22 in their wins.
? Detroit is +5 in turnovers in its wins, minus-4 in its losses.
? Lions are 11-9 ATS in last 20 games as a road underdog.
? Detroit was outrushed 119-29 in its 41-21 home loss to Indy LW.
? Three of their four road games stayed under the total.

? Minnesota covered four of its last five games.
? Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22 in wins.
? Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, zero in its wins (+2).
? Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
? Vikings are 18-10-2 ATS in last 30 games as a home favorite, 0-2 TY.

? Vikings won last five series games, all by 7+ points.
? Lions lost 24-9/20-7 in last two visits to Minnesota.

Ravens (5-2) @ Indianapolis (5-2)
? Ravens scored 27+ points in all five wins; their loss was 34-20 to KC.
? Last five games, Baltimore has run ball for 175 yards/game.
? Four of six Raven games stayed under the total.
? Baltimore is 10-16 ATS in last 26 games as a home favorite, 2-1 this year.
? Ravens covered 14 of last 18 post-bye games.

? Colts won four of their last five games.
? Indy lost two of its three home games
? In their last two games, Colts ran ball 33 times for only 127 yards.
? Indy is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 post-bye games.
? Colt opponents converted 18 of last 34 third down plays.

? Home side won last five series games.
? Ravens won three of last four series games, but they?ve lost last six visits here- their last visit to Indy was in 2014.

Panthers (3-5) @ Kansas City (7-1)
? Carolina lost its last three games, giving up 25 ppg.
? Panthers converted only 11 of last 32 third down plays.
? Carolina split its four road games this year, covering three of them.
? Panthers are 15-10 ATS in last 25 games as a road underdog, 3-1 TY.
? Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

? Chiefs allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 40 points in their loss.
? Kansas City won/covered its last three games, giving up 14 ppg.
? Chiefs are 20-11 ATS in last 31 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY.
? Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.
? AFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-1-1 ATS.

? Chiefs won four of six series games.
? Panthers lost two of three visits here; last one was in 2012.

Houston (1-6) @ Jacksonville (1-6)
? Texans allowed 42-35 points in losing their last two games.
? Houston allowed 28+ points in all their losses- their only win was 30-14 over the Jaguars, four weeks ago.
? Texans are 0-3 on the road, giving up 34.7 ppg.
? Three of their last four games stayed under the total.
? Last five years, Houston is 1-2-2 ATS as a road favorite.

? Jaguars lost last six games, are 0-5 ATS in last five.
? Jacksonville gave up 33.2 ppg in their last six games.
? Jaguars are 6-8-2 ATS in last 16 games as a home underdog.
? Jacksonville lost two of three home games this year, upsetting Colts in Week 1.
? AFC South teams are 6-14 ATS outside the division.

? Jaguars (+5) lost 30-14 in Houston four weeks ago; Texans outgained them 486-364, averaged 9.9 yards/pass attempt.
? Houston won last five series games, by average score of 22-8.
? Texans won four of last five visits to Jacksonville.

NJ Giants (1-7) @ Washington (2-5)
? Short week for Giants after their Monday night loss to Tampa Bay.
? Giants? last four games were decided by total of seven points.
? Big Blue lost all four of their road games, but covered all four.
? Giants are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog.
? NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-15 ATS.

? Washington won two of its three divisional games (3-0 ATS).
? Last five games, Washington was outscored 46-19 in second half.
? Washington outgained Giants 337-240 in their 20-19 loss three weeks ago.
? Last three years, Washington is 1-3 ATS as a home favorite.
? Last three Washington games stayed under the total.

? Giants (-2.5) beat Washington 20-19 at home, three weeks ago; Giants scored a defensive TD. Giants? one TD drive was only 27 yards.
? This season series has been split the last five years.
? Giants won 40-16/41-35OT in last two visits here.

Raiders (4-3) @ LA Chargers (2-4)
? Raiders scored 34+ points in three of four wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
? Las Vegas allowed 400+ TY in four of its last six games.
? Raiders won three of their four road games this year.
? Six of seven Raider games went over the total.
? Raiders are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.

? Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-14 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
? Bolts lost five of last six games, with two losses in OT.
? Last four Charger games went over the total.
? Chargers are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
? In last three games, LA scored 12 TD?s on 37 drives; the rookie QB is good.

? Chargers are 10-7 in last 17 series games, but lost 26-24/24-17 in last two.
? Raiders were 3-5 in last eight visits to San Diego/Carson.

Steelers (7-0) @ Dallas (2-6)
? Steelers won first seven games (6-1 ATS), scoring 30.1 ppg.
? They won 26-16/27-24/28-24 in first three road games.
? Steelers are 2-5-2 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite, 1-0 TY.
? Over is 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh?s last six games.
? Steelers won field position in last three games, by 14-12-9 yards.

? Cowboys were outscored 86-22 in last three games; 3rd-stringer DiNucci makes his second pro start here.
? Last seven games, Dallas is minus-12 in turnovers.
? Cowboys are 0-8 ATS this year; their two wins by total of 4 points- Dallas is only third team since 1998 to start a season 0-8 ATS.
? Last three Dallas games stayed under the total.
? Cowboys are 4-3 ATS in last seven games as a home underdog.

? Dallas won six of last eight series games, winning 27-24/35-30 in last two.
? Steelers lost three of last four visits to Dallas; their last win here was in ?04.

Miami (4-3) @ Arizona (5-2)
? Dolphins won last three games, by combined score of 95-34.
? Miami is first team since 2004 to lead by 18+ points at halftime in three consecutive games.
? Dolphins allowed 17 or fewer points in their wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
? Miami won field position by 7+ yards in five of its last six games.
? Dolphins are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.

? Arizona scored 30+ points in four of its five wins- they scored 23-21 in their losses.
? Cardinals are running ball for 160.7 yards/game this season.
? Redbirds are 5-10 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
? Five of their seven games stayed under the total.
? NFL teams coming off their bye week are 6-5 ATS this year.

? Miami won nine of 12 series games; four of last five meetings were decided by 3 or fewer points.
? Dolphins lost two of three visits here, losing last one 24-21 in OT in 2012.

New Orleans (5-2) @ Tampa Bay (6-2)
? New Orleans won its last four games, by 6-3-3-3 points.
? Saints allowed 23-29-27-24-23 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
? New Orleans won?t two of its last three games in overtime.
? Saints are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as a road favorite.
? All seven of their games went over the total.

? Tampa Bay won six of its last seven games, scoring 33.4 ppg.
? Bucs are allowing only 66.0 rushing yards/game.
? Last five years, Tampa Bay is 5-12-3 ATS as a home favorite.
? Three of their last five games stayed under.
? Last five games, Bucs outscored opponents 83-29 in second half.

? Saints (-3.5) beat Tampa Bay 34-23 in Week 1, with +3 turnover ratio.- they had a 24-yard edge in field position and also scored a defensive TD.
? New Orleans won last four series games, all by 7+ points.
? Saints won 28-14/34-17 in last two visits to Tampa Bay.

New England (2-5) @ Jets (0-8)
? New England lost its last three games; they were outscored 42-12 in first half.
? Patriots allowed 197-190 rushing yards in their last two games.
? Last four games, New England scored 4 TD?s on 39 drives, with 12 turnovers.
? Last 4+ years, Patriots are 21-12-1 ATS as a road favorite (0-0 TY).
? Three of their last four games stayed under the total.

? Winless Jets are 1-7 ATS, losing home games by 18-9-20-8 points.
? Jets have been outscored 29-0 in 2nd half of their last three games.
? Jets are 11-8-2 ATS in last 21 games as a road underdog, 1-2 TY.
? Last three games, Jets averaged 3.1/3.1/4.1 yards per pass attempt.
? Five of their last six games stayed under the total.

? New England won last eight series games, last three by a combined score of 101-17.
? Patriots won last four series games here, by 5-7-14-33 points.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 9 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

For the second time this season, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will be sidelined by a high ankle sprain, missing Thursday's home game against the Packers and perhaps several more.

NFL Week 8 is in the books, NFL Week 9 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the typical injury news, which is actually becoming far too typical for the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers.

This week?s NFL Cheat Sheet serves as one-stop shopping for that information and more.

Week 9 Injuries

San Francisco 49ers: Quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo aggravated a high ankle sprain in Sunday?s loss at Seattle and could be out several weeks. And tight end George Kittle broke a bone in his foot and is also out several weeks. That?s on top of running backs Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. both on IR with ankle injuries, among other key banged-up players.

The SuperBook at Westgate opened San Fran +2.5 at home against Green Bay in the Thursday night game. But the matchup was taken off the board Monday morning and will go back up once there?s more clarity with both teams, as Green Bay has issues, too.

Green Bay Packers: Backup running back AJ Dillon, who played in Sunday?s home loss to Minnesota, tested positive for COVID-19 and is under the league?s COVID protocol. The Dillon news is what first prompted The SuperBook to take the Packers-Niners game off the board, and then came the aforementioned San Francisco injury news. The game opened Packers -2.5, with a total of 50.5 that moved to 51 Monday morning, before the game was taken down.

Baltimore Ravens: Speaking of COVID, cornerback Marlon Humphrey tested positive Monday after playing in Sunday?s home loss to Pittsburgh. The SuperBook opened the Ravens -2.5 and quickly moved to -3 Sunday evening, while the total went from 45 to 44.5. But this game also came off the board Monday, while the book awaited clarity on Baltimore?s situation.

Arizona Cardinals: The Cards had a bye in Week 8, and over the weekend, linebacker Devon Kennard and cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. tested positive for COVID. So yet another game came off the board Monday at The SuperBook, Arizona?s Sunday matchup against visiting Miami. Prior to that decision, the game opened Cardinals -5.5 and moved to -4.5, while the total was stable at 48.

Los Angeles Chargers: Defensive end Joey Bosa is in concussion protocol after getting injured in Sunday?s loss at Denver, so his status is uncertain for this week?s home game against the Raiders. The Chargers opened -3 and quickly dropped to -1.5, though SuperBook executive director John Murray said that had much more to do with Los Angeles? fourth-quarter collapse in the loss to Denver.

Detroit Lions: Wideout Kenny Golladay (hip) is expected to miss Sunday?s game at Minnesota. The Lions opened +3.5 and moved to +4 Monday at The SuperBook.


Week 9 Weather

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: The early forecast calls for a 60 percent chance of thunderstorms Sunday in Jacksonville, with winds of 10-20 mph. For the moment, The SuperBook?s total is stable at 51.5.

Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs: Five days out, the Kansas City forecast calls for a slight chance of rain, but more noteworthy, winds of 15-25 mph. The total, however, is already up to 52.5 from the opener of 51, so keep an eye on this game as the forecast develops.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: There?s a 50/50 shot for rain Sunday in Tampa, Fla., along with winds of 10-20 mph, according to the early-week forecast.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 9
Bruce Marshall

Week 9 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 29 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 14 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Nov. 5

GREEN BAY at SAN FRANCISCO
Niners destroyed Pack in both meetings at Levi?s last season (total score 74-28).
Pack 5-2 vs. line TY, Niners only 1-3 vs. line at home.

Tech Edge: Slight to 49ers, based on recent series trends.


Sunday, Nov. 8

SEATTLE at BUFFALO
Bills no covers last four in 2020.
Hawks 8-4-1 vs. spread away since LY.

Tech Edge: Seahawks, based on recent trends.

DENVER at ATLANTA
Falcs 0-4 vs. line at home TY, 3-8 last 11 as host.
Fangio 3-0 vs. line away TY, 7-2 vs. spread last nine as visitor.
Broncos 10-3 last 13 as dog.

Tech Edge: Broncos, based on team trends.

CHICAGO at TENNESSEE
Bears 3-1 vs. line away TY, also ?under? 12-6 last 18 on board.
Titans, however, are ?over? 6 in a row and ?over? 16-4 with Tannehill at QB.
Tenn 2-4 vs. spread its last six at Nissan Stadium.

Tech Edge: Bears and slight to ?over,? based on recent and extended Titans ?totals? trends.

DETROIT at MINNESOTA
Vikes just 3-5 vs. spread last eight as host, but have won and covered last five in series.
Vikes ?over? 13-5 last 18 reg season games.

Tech Edge: Vikings and ?over,? based on series and ?totals? trends.

BALTIMORE at INDIANAPOLIS
Ravens have only dropped 5 of last 18 vs. spread (12-5-1), though they?re 0-3-1 last four vs. spread in 2020.
Also 6-1-1 vs. spread last eight away.
Balt 8-6 ?under? since late 2019.
Colts 0-1 as dog TY but were 5-3 in role LY.

Tech Edge: Ravens, based on team trends.

CAROLINA at KANSAS CITY
Rhule has covered last four as dog in 2020, and last three on road.
Chiefs however have covered 15 of their last 17 on board.

Tech Edge: Slight to Chiefs, based on extended trends.

HOUSTON at JACKSONVILLE
Texans have won last 5 meetings SU (4-1 vs. line in those), but Houston 1-6 vs. line TY, 1-7 last 8 on board.
Though lone win and cover that span at expense of Jags on Oct. 11.
Jags no covers last five TY. Last five and six of last seven meetings ?under? as well.

Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

N.Y. GIANTS at WASHINGTON
After Bucs game last Monday, G-Men 4-0-1 vs, line last four and 5-1-1 vs. points last seven in 2010.
NY has won last four meetings (3-0-1 vs. line) including close 20-19 win at MetLife on Oct. 18.

Tech Edge: Slight to Giants, based on recent and series trends.

LAS VEGAS at L.A. CHARGERS
Bolts had won and covered four straight in series prior to Raiders sweep LY.
Raiders ?over? 5-1-1 in 2020, Chargers ?over? last four.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.

PITTSBURGH at DALLAS
After Philly last Sunday night, Cowboys now 0-8 vs. line in 2020, 2-11 last 13 on board.
Steel 8-0 SU, 7-1 vs. spread in 2020.
Pitt "over" 4-1-1 last six in 2020.

Tech Edge: Steelers and slight to ?over,? based on team and ?totals? trends.

MIAMI at ARIZONA
Dolphins on 14-5 spread run since early 2019, and 12-3 last 15 as dog.
Kingsbury, however, 5-2 vs. line TY and 15-7-1 since taking over Cards in 2019.
Cards also on 8-3-1 ?under? run, Dolphins ?under? 5-2 thus year.

Tech Edge: ?Under,? based on ?totals? trends.

NEW ORLEANS at TAMPA BAY
Saints on 8-2 spread run as visitor (though only 2-6 last eight overall vs. number), also ?over? 7-0 in 2020.
NO ?over? 5-1 last six vs. Bucs.
Saints 4-1 SU and vs. line last five at Raymond James Stadium.
After Monday at Giants, Bucs 4-2-1 vs. spread last seven TY.
Arians also now ?over? 17-7 with Bucs and 32-15 since mid-2016 with Cards.

Tech Edge: ?Over,? based on ?totals? trends.


Monday, Nov. 9

NEW ENGLAND at N.Y. JETS
Teams are a combined 4-11 vs. line TY.
Pats have dropped last 4 SU and 1-3 vs. spread in those.
Jets 1-7 vs. line TY, 3-10 last 13 on board.
Jets ?under? 10-4 last 14, Belichick ?under? 5-3 last eight since late 2019, and ?unders? 7-1 last 8 meetings.
Patriots have won last 8 SU in series, and have covered 5 of last 7.

Tech Edge: ?Under? and slight to Patriots, based on ?totals? and series trends.

 

[Udog]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 9
Micah Roberts

Public starts Week 9 with a "W"

The sportsbooks got off to a horrible start in Week 9 of the NFL season with the Green Bay Packers capturing a 34-17 road win at the injury-plagued San Francisco 49ers, a game that was no sweat for Packer backers who laid up to -7.5.

?We got beaten up good last night on the Packers,? said BetMGM Vice President of trading Jason Scott. ?Our customers couldn?t find the 49ers button.?

What kind of effect did the 49ers last-second TD have on the total that dropped from 51.5 down to 48?

?It was the cherry on top to completely ruin my night,? Scott said.

Onto Sunday's Action

Now the bookmakers look to get some of the Thursday losses back by balancing out Sunday?s 12 games where there?s an undefeated team playing a team that is 0-8 against the spread, the Football Team is favored, sharp money is finally turning on the Bears, and an old school AFC West rivalry with Las Vegas invading Los Angeles.

Top vs. Bottom

First up is the 7-0 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-1 ATS) visiting the 2-6 Dallas Cowboys, who have failed to cover a spread this season.

The public is jumping all over the Steelers at all books in Nevada and they don?t seem to mind laying -14 which is why Station Casinos sportsbook director Jason McCormick tested the waters to see if any Cowboys money was to be had at +14.5. The hook didn?t attract anyone over the counter or the phones, so maybe the proper number is +15 or +16 to help balance the tilted one-way betting.

You can?t blame the public for betting against something that has cashed every week.

Betting against the Cowboys pays out better than the ATM, and now the Cowboys have their fourth and fifth string quarterbacks scheduled to play with head coach Mike McCarthey keeping who will start, either Cooper Rush or Garrett Gilbert, tight under his sweat jacket. Sure, the Steelers will really be thrown off defensively by practicing for Gilbert when Rush starts.

Cooper Rush, from Central Michigan, should get the start just because he knows offensive coordinator Kellen Moore?s offense better since being on the team the last two seasons. The Steelers average score this season is 30-20.

Headed East -- Again

Another popular public team, and the top public team at Station Casinos which is the capital of public bettors in Nevada, is the 6-1 Seattle Seahawks laying -3 (Even) at the 6-2 Buffalo Bills.

Despite owning the worst defense in the NFL, 460 yards-per-game, QB Russell Wilson can?t be stopped these days and the offense is averaging a league-best 34.3 points per game. The public hates the Bills this week because they?re on an 0-4 ATS run.

Plus, Seattle has won and covered its two games in the Eastern Time Zone this season with wins at Atlanta (38-25) and MIami (31-23) in Week 1 and 4 respectively.

The public also loves their 7-1 Chiefs who have covered six of eight games, the last one covering -19.5 against the Jets. Surely they can cover -12.5 at home against the 3-5 Panthers, right? Sharp bettors disagree and have been taking the points all week from +12 down to +10.5. Star running-back Christian McCaffrey is expected to return to action this week for the Panthers and carry his normal load after practicing the last two weeks.

Public vs. Sharps

The public and the sharps are both on the same sides of the Bears-Titans game and have pushed the number from Tennessee being a six-point home favorite to -6.5.

The 5-3 Bears (5-3 ATS) have been a popular sharp money bet in recent weeks, but they?ve jumped ship and are laying the points with the 5-2 Titans, who find new ways not to cover weekly going just 2-5 ATS.

Both teams come off two straight losses.

Two 5-2 teams match-up as Baltimore (3-4 ATS) plays at Indianapolis (4-3 ATS) and the public and sharp money are divided on this one as well.

The public has the Ravens as the fourth-most bet team in parlays this week while sharp money took +2.5 at +2 on the home dog at a few books. However, the Ravens are Circa Sports biggest risk of the week thus far. The SuperBook has the Ravens -1.5 with a total set at 48. The Colts rolled to a 41-21 win at Detroit while the Ravens come off a 28-24 home loss to the Steelers.

South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews says they?ve taken sharp action on the 3-4 Broncos (+4) at 2-6 Atlanta, but he didn?t move the number. The total has stayed at 50 all week as well. Both of the Falcons (3-5 ATS) wins this season have come in the last three weeks and both were on the road.

The Broncos (5-2 ATS) will be playing their fourth road game in the Eastern Time Zone and have covered the previous three, and won the last two outright.

Practices in Denver have been limited this week due to a COVID-19 outbreak which included VP John Elway getting infected.

The 2-5 Washington Football Team (4-3 ATS) opened as 3.5-point home favorite against the 1-7 New York Giants (5-3 ATS) and sharp money pushed it past the most key number of ?3? down to -2.5.

QB Daniel Jones has never lost to the Washington?s going 3-0, including their only 2020 win in Week 6 against them. The 20-19 win was ugly and magnified more by Washington head coach Ron Rivera going for a 2-point conversion in the final seconds instead of the kick to tie. Washington moved the ball well that day and deserved to win.

BetMGM's Scott says though action has been light so far, their biggest risk has been on the 4-3 Las Vegas Raiders at +1.5 and +1 at the 2-5 Los Angeles Chargers with a total that has surprisingly dropped from 54 down to 51.5, although six of the past seven meetings have stayed under between the pair.

The Chargers have covered five of seven games, but come off a heartbreaking loss at Denver. The Raiders (4-3 ATS) come off a gritty 16-6 win at Cleveland.

Las Vegas vs. Los Angeles, wow, in the NFL. I still get a smirk every time I see it in lights or hear announcers say "Las Vegas Raiders." I hope NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell does too, the guy who just a few years ago wouldn't let Las Vegas buy ads for the Super Bowl.

Up north at the Atlantis Reno, book director Marc Nelson has taken the same public action as down south in Las Vegas, but his respected money was a bit different getting plays on the Dolphins +4.5 at Arizona, and Jaguars +7 at home against Texans.

Circa Sports director Matt Metcalf says their most handled game of the week already is the Sunday night game with the 5-2 New Orleans Saints (2-5 ATS) looking to sweep the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4 ATS) in a huge NFC South battle from Raymond James Stadium.

Metcalf says action has been steady on both sides with a slight lean towards taking the +4.5 with the saints who beat the Bucs, 34-23, in Week 1 with Saints being four-point home favorites.

It?s unusual for the Sunday night game to have the most action before the early games start on Sunday.

It?s especially rare for a Friday afternoon to have it already be the top played game.

Week 9 - Public vs. Sharp Leans

Sharp

Saints
Giants
Panthers
Colts
Jets
Dolphins
Jaguars
Titans
Broncos

Public

Seahawks
Chiefs
Steelers
Ravens
Titans

 

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 9
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: New Orleans at Tampa Bay
-- The Saints are 11-0-1 ATS (6.46 ppg) since Jan 11, 2014 as a dog of more than three points against a team above .500 on the season.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Las Vegas at L.A. Chargers
-- The Raiders are 0-14 ATS (-12.36 ppg) since Dec 26, 2010 wen the total is at least five points higher than last game which they won.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Houston at Jacksonville
-- The Texans are 0-7-2 OU (-7.67 ppg) since Oct 07, 2018 coming off a game where Deshaun Watson threw for at least 300 passing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Carolina at Kansas City
-- The Panthers are 10-0 OU (11.10 ppg) since Sep 30, 2012 on the road coming off a loss when facing a team over .650 on the season.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Dallas
-- The Steelers are 0-20-2 OU (-6.86 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 when they threw for less than 205 yards last game.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Dallas
-- The Cowboys are 0-10-1 ATS (-11.59 ppg) since Dec 16, 2018 coming off a game where they committed at least two turnovers.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

 

[Udog]

 

[Udog]

Saints vs. Buccaneers Week 9 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

It's nice to see that SNF is slated to be a matchup between two teams that play some quality football when they are on, and not whatever the NFC East calls it whenever one of their teams steps onto the field.

It's a first place battle between the Saints and Buccaneers, and I'm sure the fawning over the two future HOF QB's involved in this game will see no bounds.

Most of it is deserved though, as Drew Brees and Tom Brady have been trading the All-time TD passes record back and forth this year, and the competitive nature of both of them will likely have each side wanting to out-duel the other in their last scheduled meeting this season.

It's still got to be about winning the game first though, as Tampa holds a half-game lead on New Orleans in the NFC South race, and should the Saints win this contest they'll have swept the season series and hold that always critical tiebreaker should it come to that.

So who wins the rematch?

Week 9 Matchup: NFC South
Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Location: Tampa, Florida
Date: Sunday, Nov. 8, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC

Future Hall of Famers Drew Brees (L) and Tom Brady square off on Sunday night in Tampa. (AP)

Saints-Buccaneers Betting Odds

Spread: Tampa Bay -4.5
Money-Line: Tampa Bay -220, New Orleans +190
Total: 51.5

2020 Betting Stats

New Orleans

Overall: 5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS, 7-0 O/U
Road: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS, 3-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.4 (Rank 7)
Defense PPG: 28.1 (Rank 23)
Offense YPG: 385.9 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 328.4 (Rank 8)

Tampa Bay

Overall: 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U
Home: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 30.9 (Rank 4)
Defense PPG: 20.6 (Rank 7)
Offense YPG: 368.4 (Rank 14)
Defense YPG: 299.5 (Rank 3)

Handicapping the Total

Hard to put substantial weight into what we saw from these two in their first meeting, as it was Week 1 after a year with no preseason etc, and Brady was playing his first game in a different uniform.

The 34-23 win by the Saints can't completely be ignored though as it was the Saints defense who won the turnover battle 3-0 that day, including housing one of the two INT's they snatched off Brady.

Since then, it's been all about Tampa's play on the defensive end that has helped the Bucs get to where they currently stand, even if that defensive unit has probably gotten a little overhyped in recent weeks.

All the great numbers Tampa's defense has put up since then were at the forefront of complaints for Tampa backers on MNF last week, as they gave up too many first downs to an awful Giants squad, including a 4th and very long late to help the Giants push that game 'over' the total as well.

Those that used Tampa's great DVOA numbers (and other defensive metrics) as support for a Bucs ATS or 'under' play last week are going to likely be a little hesitant to go to that well again this week with Drew Brees and not Daniel Jones sharing the field with Tampa this week and you can understand why.

Brees and company have a long, proven track record of putting up points ? even if it's largely from dink-and-dunk mode now with Alvin Kamara doing it all ? and the Saints are 7-0 O/U on the season as it is.

I'm sure that perfect 'over' mark for New Orleans will be brought up quite a bit for those bettors looking to take the high side of this total this week, but if you've read any of my pieces over this season (or previous years) here at VegasInsider.com, you'll know I'm not the biggest believer in continually riding long streaks of any kind to begin with.

Which brings me to the play on this total this week, as it is an 'under' that I will be backing here.

All streaks eventually come to an end, and when you've got a unit that ranks out as good as the Bucs defense does in a variety of ways, them coming off a disinterested performance vs the Giants and seeing a division rival for the 2nd time here clearly puts the advantage in their hands in my view.

They've got a much better idea about this dink-and-dunk game the Saints prefer to employ ? Kamara has 556 receiving yards this year and leads the NFL by a wide margin with 533 YAC (yards after catch) ? and the Bucs will definitely have a beat on that.

Tampa's defense still leads the league in opponent rushing yards per attempt too at just 3.2 per try on the ground, so Brees and the Saints may not find much offensive success at all in this one if Kamara can't get going.

This run of 'overs' has come against some very suspect teams of late with Detroit, L.A. Chargers, Carolina, and Chicago being the last four opponents for the Saints, and none of those defenses can really hold a candle to what Tampa brings to the table. The notion that Tampa's D was a little lackadaisical in their effort against the Giants knowing this game was on deck is also a possibility to consider as well.

At the same time, the Saints own defense is pretty strong against the run (opponents rush for just 3.6 yards per attempt, 3rd best in the NFL) and the Bucs are always looking to be as balanced as possible on offense. New Orleans defense forced three turnovers in that first meeting, and while the Bucs attack is much improved since then, forcing turnovers is what this Saints defense has thrived on for years.

But take away the pick-six Brady threw in that first meeting and that 34-23 final we saw in the first meeting stays 'under' this total, as making sure to get the key number of 51 to go 'under' makes a whole lot of sense here as well. Since I generally subscribe to flipping the side and total results in division rematch games to begin with (if they make sense), looking low here and having the Saints cash their first 'under' ticket of the year is something I've got no problem getting behind.

Even after missing the best of the number from earlier in the week, the 'under' still looks to be the correct play. And one that could potentially be waited on with Sunday action pushing the number higher again as the Saints perfect 'over' run gets thrown around a lot.

Head-to-Head History

Sep. 13, 2020 - New Orleans 34 vs. Tampa Bay 23, Saints -4, Over 48.5
Nov. 17, 2019 - New Orleans 34 at Tampa Bay 17, Saints -5, Over 50.5
Oct. 6, 2019 - New Orleans 31 vs. Tampa Bay 24, Saints -3, Over 46

Handicapping the Side

Flipping the side result would suggest backing the home side in this game, and that too is the only way I could look at this game. The spread of -4.5 is a little tricky in that this could easily finish as a three-point win for Tampa, but with New Orleans on a 1-5 ATS run as it is right now, there are just too many holes in their game to confidently do anything but take the Bucs ATS here.

I do actually prefer the 'under' look though as a close battle with first place on the line tends to lend itself to lower scoring contests, and one where every point matters. Considering Tampa is 2-1 ATS at home this year and that lone loss came by the hook against LAC, it would have to be Bucs or nothing for me.

But passing on the side here is what I'm ultimately doing, as I've got much more faith in both defenses stepping up in a game that means so much to both sides here. Neither side particularly wants to get involved in a shootout-type affair because it will put far too much pressure on each offense to produce on each drive, and holding a point spread ticket on either side is going to bring plenty of uncomfortable moments in that case.

A Tampa Bay ML play is an option I'd much rather get behind if you are willing to lay that chalk to begin with.

Key Injuries

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees: Shoulder - Probable
DB Justin Hardee: Groin - Questionable
WR Michael Thomas: Hamstring - Questionable
RB Ty Montgomery: Hamstring - Questionable
LB Kwon Alexander: Acquired - Doubtful
DT Sheldon Rankins: Knee - Out
C Nick Easton: Concussion - Probable
WR Marquez Callaway: Ankle - Probable
WR Emmanuel Sanders: COVID-19 - Probable
RB Alvin Kamara: Foot - Probable

Tampa Bay

DE William Gholston: COVID-19 - Questionable
G Ali Marpet: Concussion - Out
WR Chris Godwin: Finger - Probable
WR Antonio Brown: Suspension Served - Probable
RB Kenjon Barner: Suspension Served - Probable

 

[bvinnieb]

Go against trend

Go against trend

Gridiron Angles - Week 9
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: New Orleans at Tampa Bay
-- The Saints are 11-0-1 ATS (6.46 ppg) since Jan 11, 2014 as a dog of more than three points against a team above .500 on the season.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Las Vegas at L.A. Chargers
-- The Raiders are 0-14 ATS (-12.36 ppg) since Dec 26, 2010 wen the total is at least five points higher than last game which they won. -

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Houston at Jacksonville
-- The Texans are 0-7-2 OU (-7.67 ppg) since Oct 07, 2018 coming off a game where Deshaun Watson threw for at least 300 passing yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Carolina at Kansas City
-- The Panthers are 10-0 OU (11.10 ppg) since Sep 30, 2012 on the road coming off a loss when facing a team over .650 on the season.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Dallas
-- The Steelers are 0-20-2 OU (-6.86 ppg) since Oct 01, 2015 when they threw for less than 205 yards last game.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Dallas
-- The Cowboys are 0-10-1 ATS (-11.59 ppg) since Dec 16, 2018 coming off a game where they committed at least two turnovers.

Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

IS THE SUGGESTION TO TAKE THE RAIDERS or CHARGERS? THANKS IN ADVANCE.

 

[Cnotes53]

Am pretty sure its saying take LAC

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 8

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SEA at BUF 01:00 PM
SEA -3.0
U 55.0
+500 +500

DEN at ATL 01:00 PM
DEN +4.0
O 49.5
+500 +500

DET at MIN 01:00 PM
MIN -3.5
U 51.0
+500 +500

HOU at JAC 01:00 PM
HOU -6.5
O 49.0
+500 +500

BAL at IND 01:00 PM
IND -1.0
U 48.0
+500 +500

CHI at TEN 01:00 PM
CHI +6.0
O 46.5
+500 +500

NYG at WAS 01:00 PM
WAS -3.0
O 43.0
+500 +500

CAR at KC 01:00 PM
CAR +10.5
U 51.0
+500 +500

LV at LAC 04:05 PM
LV -1.0
O 52.5
+500 +500

PIT at DAL 04:25 PM
PIT -14.5
O 44.0
+500 +500

MIA at ARI 04:25 PM
ARI -6.0
O 49.0
+500 +500

NO at TB 08:20 PM
NO +3.5
O 50.0
+500 +500

 

[bvinnieb]

Thank you

Thank you

Am pretty sure its saying take LAC

THank you and appreciate you posting all the valuable info!

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday?s 6-pack
Six interesting spreads in college football this week:
? TCU @ West Virginia (-3)
? Florida State @ NC State (-7)
? Wake Forest @ North Carolina (-14)
? Miami @ Virginia Tech (-2.5)
? Wisconsin (-4) @ Michigan
? Indiana (-7.5) @ Michigan State

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 239,374
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?The reality is, and it?s well noted and I?ve said this several times, Jay?s (Cutler) a gunslinger. I don?t think he had all the tools and skills he needed to really lead a team, and when you?re in the NFL that quarterback, you gotta be like a CEO. I think he tried to develop that over time and it just could never come around, and it got to a point in Chicago where those first couple of years he was hit so bad it just seemed like it wore on him mentally and physically and we just didn?t have enough to get it done.?
Former NFL WR Brandon Marshall

Wednesday?s quiz
The movies The Hangover and Hangover Part III take place mainly in Las Vegas; where did the second Hangover movie take place?

Tuesday?s quiz
Ben Roethlisberger played his college football at Miami OH

Monday?s quiz
Mike Leach is the football coach at Mississippi State; he also coached Texas Tech, Washington State.

***********************************

Wednesday?s Den: Movies that just missed my all-time favorites? lists??

Thirteen movies that I really like, but none of these made my favorite 13 lists, either sports or non-sports movies??.if you find them on TV somewhere, they?re worth your time.

13) Autumn in New York? Richard Gere plays an aging playboy who falls for a much younger, but terminally ill woman (Winona Ryder). Excellent supporting cast: JK Simmons, Jill Hennessy, Vera Farmiga, Anthony LaPaglia.

12) Ides of March? An idealistic staffer (Ryan Gosling) for a new presidential candidate (George Clooney) gets a crash course on dirty politics during his stint on the campaign trail. Supporting cast includes Marisa Tomei, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Paul Giamatti.

11) Little Big League? A 12-year old kid inherits the Minnesota Twins from his grandfather (Jason Robards). Ashley Crow plays the kid?s mom; in real life, her son was a first round draft pick of the Mets last June.

10) Wall Street? A young and impatient stockbroker (Charlie Sheen) is willing to do anything to get to the top, including trading on illegal inside information taken through a ruthless and greedy corporate raider (Michael Douglas) who takes the young man under his wing.

Martin Sheen, Hal Holbrook, Daryl Hannah, James Spader are just part of a tremendous cast.

9) Shopgirl? A bored salesgirl (Claire Danes) has to choose between a wealthy but much older businessman (Steve Martin) and an aimless young man.

I?m a big Steve Martin fan; not only a great comedian, but a terrific actor.

8) Lucky You? A hotshot poker player does well playing in tournaments in Las Vegas, but is fighting a losing battle with his personal problems. Robert Duvall plays the guy?s poker legend father, Drew Barrymore plays his girlfriend, and lot of real-life poker pros are co-stars.

7) Lincoln Lawyer? A lawyer (Matthew McConaughey) defending a wealthy man begins to believe his client is guilty of more than just one crime. Supporting cast includes Marisa Tomei, William Macy, Josh Lucas, Bryan Cranston.

6) Heaven Can Wait? An NFL quarterback (Warren Beatty), accidentally taken away from his body by an overanxious angel before he was meant to die, returns to life in the body of a recently murdered millionaire. Jack Warden, Julie Christie, James Mason, Charles Grodin, Dyan Cannon are part of an impressive cast.

This movie came out in 1978, when the Rams were in midst of making the playoffs every year, but then failing in the playoffs. Seeing the Rams win the Super Bowl, even in a movie, made an 18-year old me a lot happier? I had the theater poster from Heaven Can Wait hanging in my bedroom. Actually, it may still be up there, have to look.

5) Dave? The US President goes into a coma while having an affair; to avoid a huge scandal in the press, an affable temp agency owner with an uncanny resemblance to the president is put in his place. Kevin Kline, Kevin Dunn, Frank Langella, Sigourney Weaver, Ving Rhames, Charles Grodin and Ben Kingsley make up an impressive cast.

4) Random Hearts? A police sergeant (Harrison Ford) and US Representative (Kristin Scott Thomas) lose their spouses in a plane crash, and soon discover that their spouses were having an affair with each other. Supporting cast includes Paul Guilfoyle, Dennis Haysbert, Bonnie Hunt and Charles Dutton.

3) Prince of Tides? A high school football coach from the south talks to his suicidal sister?s psychiatrist in New York City about their family history and falls in love with her in the process. Nick Nolte/Barbra Streisand are the stars; Blythe Danner, George Carlin are supporting actors.

2) Let It Ride? A cab driver/compulsive gambler gets a hot tip on a racehorse and has a very big day at the track. If you?ve ever spent time at the racetrack, this movie will make you laugh. Cast includes Richard Dreyfuss, Teri Garr, Jennifer Tilly, David Johansen.

1) The Natural? Robert Redford plays a middle-aged ballplayer who comes out of nowhere to lead the New York Knights to the playoffs. Wilford Brimley, Robert Duvall are terrific in their supporting roles.

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 9
Joe Williams

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Dolphins (+6, ML +220) at Cardinals, 34-31
Saints (+3.5, ML +160) at Buccaneers, 38-3
Bills (+3, ML +145) vs. Seahawks, 44-34
Giants (+3, ML +140) at Washington, 23-20

The largest favorites to cover

Packers (-6) at 49ers, 34-17 (TNF)
Titans (-6) vs. Bears, 24-17
Falcons (-4.5) vs. Broncos, 34-27
Vikings (-3) vs. Lions, 34-20

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars AFC South battle was a high-scoring affair in the first half, with the Texans leading 20-16 at halftime. Then, someone twisted the offensive spigot down to a slow drip in the third quarter, and then it was nearly off completely for most of the fourth quarter.

The score was 27-19 thanks to a PK Josh Lambo 30-yard field goal with 1:11 to go in the third quarter, as 'under' (49) bettors were hanging on by a thread. But as the fourth quarter went along, under bettors were starting to feel very good. And those laying the seven with Houston were also feeling increasingly well.

QB Jake Luton was making his first NFL start, and he did a decent enough job. In fact, the Jaguars actually had 22 first downs to 19 for the Texans, and they also edged Houston in rushing yards (115 to 107) and passing yards (297 to 267). Statistically, it was a very, very even game, and the turnover battle was 1-1, too.

The game probably should have finished the way it did, with the Jaguars falling 27-25. However, bettors on the line, as well as the total, saw a late change to the result. Luton had a 13-yard scoring scamper with 90 seconds remaining in regulation, changing the line late from a Texas cover, to a Jaguars cover, and that late score also flipped the total from an under to an over.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The New York Giants-Washington Football Team (43) game, the second installment of this rivalry in 2020, went to the visitors by a 23-20 score. The game was on pace for an 'over' result with 23 total points on the board at halftime. After a so-so third quarter, giving us 33 points after 45 minutes, 'over' bettors were still on pace.

Things got crazy in the fourth quarter, as PK Dustin Hopkins opened the scoring just four seconds into the final stanza to slice the lead of the G-Men to 23-13. About four and a half minutes later Washington got the ball back, and backup QB Alex Smith, who entered for the injured QB Kyle Allen, struck for a 68-yard touchdown to WR Terry McLaurin. Not only were Washington moneyline bettors feeling much better about their prospects with just over 10 minutes to go, 'over' bettors were feeling very good, too. Unfortunately for everyone, that's where the scoring ended, and most total bettors had to settle for an unsatisfying push. At least that's how the game closed, so that's what we'll call it. If you bet the 'over' earlier in the week when the total was 41.5, 42 or 42.5, congrats.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board for the Sunday slate were the Baltimore Ravens-Indianapolis Colts (43) game, and the 'over' was never threatened

Well, we did get off to a quick start with a 7-7 score on the board after 15 minutes, but the nerves of 'under' bettors were quelled with just a field goal by PK Rodrigo Blankenship in the second quarter, and a lone RB Gus Edwards touchdown in the third. After 45 minutes we had just 24 total points on the board, and we didn't get our final score, 24-10, until PK Justin Tucker booted a 48-yard field goal with 2:08 to go. If only all wagers could go that easily.

The highest number on the board was the Seattle Seahawks-Buffalo Bills (55) battle, and that game certainly thrilled 'over' bettors and those who indulge in fantasy football, too. It was a end-to-end action with at least 13 total points in every single quarter. The home 'dog Bills fired out to a 14-0 lead, and they seemed to be able to keep the Seahawks at arm's length all day. After exchanging 10's in the second quarter, we had a 24-10 score at halftime, more than halfway to the 'over'. The lowest scoring quarter was the third, with 'just' 13 points, but a flurry of late activity gave us the highest scoring game of the weekend with 78 total points.

In the first two primetime games of Week 9, the over/under went 1-1. A late flurry by the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth quarter helped them push the total (48.5) over the finish line, falling 34-17 to the Green Bay Packers. The Sunday night battle between future Hall of Famers Tom Brady and Drew Brees saw 31 points on the board by halftime, all on the ledger of the Saints. A scoreless third quarter killed 'over' bettors, and we saw just 10 total points in the fourth. The Monday night battle with the New England Patriots-New York Jets (41) is pending, and featured the lowest line of Week 9.

So far this season the under is 19-9 (67.9%) across 28 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 10

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Colts will be itching to get back onto the field after a disappointing 24-10 loss at home to Baltimore in Week 9. After two straight weeks with three touchdown throws, QB Philip Rivers was blanked and the Colts posted their lowest scoring total of the season. They have had a great time of it over the years against the Titans, especially against the number. Indy is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings in Nashville, and 13-4 ATS in the past 17 in this series overall. The road team has covered four of the past five overall. The Titans ended up posting a 24-17 win over the Bears at home in Week 9, just covering a 6.5-point number as the 'under' connected. It was the first under for Tennessee since Week 1, as the 'over' was 5-0-1 in the previous six.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Buccaneers will be an angry bunch after getting manhandled by the rival New Orleans Saints on Sunday Night Football, in their home building no less, 38-3. The team's previous offensive low was 19 points, a one-point loss in Chicago. They'll look to bounce back against Carolina just like the last time they were dropped by the Saints. In Week 1, Tampa lost 34-23 at NOLA, before rebounding against the Panthers 31-17 at home as 7.5-point favorites. The Panthers lost its fourth straight game in Kansas City on Sunday, 33-31, but they covered a 10-point number. They also welcomed back RB Christian McCaffrey (ankle) for the first time since he was injured in Week 2 against, yep, Tampa. While Carolina is on an 0-4 SU run, they are 2-2 ATS during the span, and all four losses are one-score games. In fact, seven of Carolina's nine results are one-score games, with the Panthers going 2-5 SU.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
The Broncos were bounced in Atlanta, falling 34-27 to the Falcons. A late 21-point flurry for the Broncos helped push the total 'over', and they nearly came all the way back to cover. Denver hasn't lost consecutive games since opening 0-3 SU. The 'over' has cashed in three in a row for QB Drew Lock and the Broncos, and they're averaging 29.0 PPG across the past two. The Raiders won 31-26 on the road against the Chargers, and they have won and covered in back-to-back games for the first time since Week 1-2. They also posted an 'over' result after their first 'under' of 2020, and the over is now 6-1-1 overall. The Raiders will hope they brought the dominance over the Broncos with them to Vegas. The silver and black are 4-0 ATS in the past four home games against the Broncos, and 5-0 ATS In the previous five meetings overall. The home team is also 6-2 ATS in the past eight in this series, with the 'under' hitting in each of the past seven meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook ran roughshod over the Lions in Week 9, rolling up his first 200-yard game in the NFL. It helped Minnesota win in back-to-back game for the first time this season, and they improved to 5-1 ATS across the past six. The 'over' is also 3-0 in a season high three in a row, while going 5-1 in the past six overall. The Bears offense was flat again, falling 24-17 in Nashville against the Titans. After opening the season 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS, the Bears have dropped three in a row while going just 1-2 ATS. They're averaging a dismal 16.7 PPG in the three games, too, while allowing 24.7 PPG. The 'under' is on a 5-1 run for Chicago, too. We'll see if QB Kirk Cousins can finally get over the hump on Monday Night Football. He enters this one with an 0-9 record on Mondays posting 11 touchdowns and six interceptions in those games.