CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

[Cnotes53]

NFL odds Week 10: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Kyler Murray and the Cardinals beat Seattle in Week 7, had a Week 8 bye, then got upset at home by Miami. The SuperBook opened Arizona -1.5 against Buffalo and quickly moved to -1 Sunday evening.

NFL Week 9 is all but wrapped up, with NFL Week 10 odds on the betting board and already getting some action. Among the noteworthy games, the Buffalo Bills visit the Arizona Cardinals, and the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams meet in an NFC West clash.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 10 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

Teams on bye: Kansas City Chiefs, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, New York Jets

Colts at Titans Odds
Opening line
Titans -2, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tennessee looks to put a little daylight between itself and Indianapolis in this AFC South clash Thursday night. The SuperBook opened the Titans -2 and got to -2.5 in short order.

"Philip Rivers was awful today, but we don't want to overreact too much," Murray said Sunday night, alluding to the Colts QB's lousy performance in a 24-10 home loss to Baltimore. "The Colts really should've been up by more at halftime in that game, and we still trust their defense. I'll never understand what the officials saw on that Marcus Peters interception. That was a real turning point in the game."

Bengals at Steelers Odds
Opening line
Steelers -9.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Pittsburgh overcame a couple of scares Sunday, one from Dallas and one from star QB Ben Roethlisberger's knee, to get a 24-19 victory over the upstart and undermanned Cowboys. So the Steelers remain the league's only unbeaten team, at 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS). The SuperBook opened Pittsburgh -9.5 and stuck there through Sunday night. Cincinnati is coming off its bye week.

Washington at Lions Odds
Opening line

OFF, Over/Under OFF
Why the line moved
Detroit QB Matthew Stafford was in concussion protocol after Sunday's 34-20 loss at Minnesota, prompting The SuperBook to keep this game off the board until there's more clarity on the situation. Washington has its own QB issues after Kyle Allen suffered a dislocated ankle in Sunday's 23-20 loss to the New York Giants, putting Alex Smith back under center.

Texans at Browns Odds
Opening line
Browns -1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Houston eked out a win at Jacksonville in Week 9, while Cleveland had a bye. The SuperBook opened the Browns -1.5 and moved to -2.5 within an hour.

"The Browns have to win games like this if they want to make the playoffs," Murray said. "Baker Mayfield went into COVID protocol today. That's something to monitor, but we expect him to play Sunday. We think Houston is much better than their 2-6 record, and this line shows it."

Jaguars at Packers Odds
Opening line
Packers -13.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Green Bay is on a mini-bye, having played and rolled in the Week 9 Thursday nighter, a 34-17 victory at San Francisco. Jacksonville, meanwhile, fell just short at home to Houston, 27-25. The Packers opened -13.5 at The SuperBook, and the line was stable Sunday night.

Eagles at Giants Odds
Opening line
Giants +3, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New York held on for a 23-20 win at Washington on Sunday, while Philadelphia had a Week 9 bye in the dreadful NFC East. The Eagles opened as 3-point road favorites at The SuperBook, and there was no line movement Sunday.

Buccaneers at Panthers Odds
Opening line
Panthers +4.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tampa Bay got smacked by New Orleans 38-3 in the Sunday nighter. Meanwhile, Carolina gave defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City all it could handle, though the Panthers fell just short 33-31. The SuperBook opened the Bucs -4.5, and per standard operating procedure, pulled this game off the board during the Saints-Bucs contest. The game will go back up Monday morning, perhaps at a slightly lower number after Tampa's dismal performance.

Broncos at Raiders Odds
Opening line
Raiders -4, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Las Vegas held on for a 31-26 win at the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, while Denver lost to Atlanta 34-27. This line stuck at Raiders -4 through Sunday night at The SuperBook.

Bills at Cardinals Odds
Opening line
Cardinals -1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Buffalo got a statement win over Seattle on Sunday, 44-34 at home. Arizona was dealt a surprising 34-31 home loss by Tua Tagovailoa and Miami. So it was no surprise that the first move on this line was toward the Bills.

"We moved quickly to -1," Murray said. "This is a very interesting game. The Cardinals are off a loss, and the Bills are coming off their best win of the season and the best game of Josh Allen's career. It's very much a toss-up game, and the line shows it. There should be good two-way write."

Seahawks at Rams Odds
Opening line
Rams -1.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
While Seattle suffered the aforementioned loss at Buffalo, Los Angeles was on a bye week. The Rams are short home favorites in this NFC West clash.

"We opened Rams -1.5 and are now -2," Murray said. "The Seahawks' defense stinks, and today, Russell Wilson finally into a game (in which) he couldn't bail out the defense. I don't trust that Seattle D at all, but I also don't trust Jared Goff. I do think the public will trust Russ to bounce back here."

49ers at Saints Odds
Opening line
Saints -6.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
New Orleans boatraced Tampa Bay 38-3 under the prime-time lights Sunday night. San Francisco had no such luck in the Thursday nighter, with its depleted squad falling to Green Bay 34-17. The defending NFC champion Niners will still be minus QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) and tight end George Kittle (foot) for a few weeks, and they've got a host of other injuries. The SuperBook opened the Saints -6.5, and the game came off the board once New Orleans kicked off at Tampa.

"That line will go up after tonight," Murray assured. "The 49ers have a ton of guys out, and the Saints will be a hot team after what they did to Brady and the Bucs. The Saints will be in just about every moneyline parlay and teaser next week. We will be 49ers fans again next weekend."

Ravens at Pats Odds
Opening line
Patriots +7, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
This would normally be a matchup of top-shelf teams working their way into playoff form, under the Sunday night lights. However, New England is just 2-5 SU heading into the Week 9 Monday nighter at the New York Jets. Baltimore, meanwhile, is 6-2 SU and coming off a solid win at Indianapolis.

"The Ravens opened -7, and we moved quickly to -6.5. This is a funny line to see when the Ravens are at New England," Murray said. "I'm very curious to watch Lamar Jackson go against Bill Belichick. It seems like a lot of defensive coaches have learned and made adjustments against Jackson. And nobody is better at game-planning than Belichick. I wouldn't count him out just yet.

"I'm sure we will need New England huge, given the top slot on Sunday night, so you'll probably see this line at 7 again."

Vikings at Bears Odds
Opening line
Bears +2.5, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Three weeks ago, Chicago was 5-1 SU and seemingly in good form. Now the Bears are 5-4 SU and on a three-game skid, while Minnesota won its last two, a road upset of Green Bay and Sunday's 34-20 home win over Detroit. So even though Minnesota is just 3-5 SU and Chicago is at home, the Bears are catching 2.5 points at The SuperBook for the Week 10 Monday night tilt.

"We just looked at who we think people will be looking to bet, after what they've seen the last two weeks," Murray said. There was no disagreement with the line Sunday night, as it did not move.

Chargers at Dolphins Odds
Opening line
Dolphins -1, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Tua Tagovailoa and Miami got a surprising 34-31 victory at Arizona on Sunday, while Los Angeles took another kick in the gut in a one-score game, losing to Las Vegas 31-26. The SuperBook opened the Dolphins -1 and moved to -2.5 within an hour Sunday night, with Murray saying that was more a move with the market.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL betting tips for Week 10: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Titans opened as 2.5-point home favorites versus the Colts on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 and won't be under the key number of a field goal long.

You know you?re into the nitty gritty of the NFL betting schedule when you hit double figures. And here we are, at Week 10.

This is the time of the year when teams start scoreboard watching, with a close eye fixed on the standings and their potential playoff hopes. But for NFL bettors, we?re always focused on the spreads and totals and how they shift from Sunday night to Sunday afternoon.

The most lucrative NFL betting strategy remains getting the best of the number, and we share our NFL betting tips on the lines to bet now and ones to bet later. Good luck.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-2.5): Bet Now

Don?t get caught on your back like a turtle ? or Philip Rivers ? when it comes to the spread for Thursday Night Football. Tennessee opened -2.5 for this mid-week primetime contest and will likely move to -3 quite quickly.

The Titans out-muscled Chicago in Week 9, winning 24-17 and just holding off the Bears enough to cover the 6.5-points at home (Chicago scored 17 points in the fourth quarter). It wasn?t a pretty win, but it snapped a two-game slide for Tennessee and the Titans get to stay home for this short week.

The Colts, on the other hand, couldn?t keep pace with Baltimore for four quarters. After battling the Ravens to a 10-7 lead at the half, Indianapolis caved like the rotting Jack-o-Lantern on your neighbor?s porch, getting outscored 17-0 in the final 30 minutes. It marked the third time in the past four games that the Colts failed to cover the spread.

If you?re all about that Honky Tonk in Nashville Thursday night, take the Titans -2.5 now.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5): Bet Later

This line is actually moving away from the undefeated Steelers after opening as high as -10 for this AFC North rivalry. A near loss to the Cowboys (and whoever their QB was) as 14-point chalk will do that.

Pittsburgh didn?t look great in that 24-19 squeaker, but it was the team?s third straight road game and a textbook letdown spot after the win over Baltimore in Week 8. The Steelers are back in Heinz Field for the first time in almost a month, but Ben Roethlisberger?s tender knee could make him a no-show for practice and keep this spread under the key number of -10 (although he told the media he was fine).

The Bengals also bring a lot of heat into this match. Cincinnati enjoyed a bye in Week 9 and was last seen upsetting the Titans in Week 8. Joe Burrow is blossoming under center and taking Bengals backers along for the ride, with Cincy sitting 6-2 against the spread.

Given all that, shops have jumped from Steelers -10 to -9.5 and are dealing extra vig on the underdog Bengals +9.5 (-115). That could mean a drop to Pittsburgh -9. For those who always carry an extra Terrible Towel in the glovebox, wait it out and see how low the Steelers will go.

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins (Over 50): Bet Now

It?s a showdown between rookie quarterbacks, with Justin Herbert and the Bolts visiting Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. The Over/Under opened as low as 49.5 and has crept to 50 points with early money siding with a shootout in South Beach.

Herbert and the Chargers were oh-so-close to a Week 9 win but this total is more about the L.A. defense ? or lack thereof ? which has allowed each of its last five opponents to break the 30-point plateau on the scoreboard, topping the total in all five of those contests since Week 4.

Miami?s offensive attack hasn?t slowed much since Tua usurped the starting gig from Ryan Fitzpatrick, including getting 27 points in the 34-31 win over Arizona on Sunday (the Dolphins opened the game with a scoop-and-score). The Miami defense is a dangerous crew and very disruptive but has given up big scores against quality opponents.

The bad weather in Florida is supposed to pass by the weekend, so if you?re lining up for these Young Guns like Emilio Estevez, Kiefer Sutherland, Lou Diamond Phillips, Charlie Sheen, and Dermot Mulroney (I mean, what a cast!), get down on the Over 50 now.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (Over 50.5): Bet Later

This AFC West showdown in Sin City opened with a total as high as 51 points but is trickling down with action on the Under out of the gate. And who could blame them? The Broncos and Raiders have played Under in seven straight head-to-head matchups, going back to 2017. Contrarian bettors: ACTIVATE!

The Raiders are an Over bettors wet dream, with an offense putting up 27 points per game and a defense giving up one point more. The Silver and Black have kept Over backers in the black, with a 6-1-1 O/U mark heading into Week 10.

The Broncos have started to show some teeth on offense in recent games. Denver has posted scores of 27 and 31 points in the past two weeks and it looks like Drew Lock is settling in since returning from injury. The Broncos defense, however, is slipping with a total of 107 points allowed in the past three games.

If you?re bucking this divisional totals trend, crack a Coors and wait to see how low the number will go before buying up the Over.

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Monday?s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Buffalo 44, Seahawks 34:
? Seattle allowed 23+ points in every game this year.
? Seahawks have scored 36 TD?s on 83 drives this season.
? Seattle turned ball over four times; they scored on 6 of other 7 drives.
? Seven of their eight games went over the total.

? Buffalo won field position by 21 yards, a huge margin.
? Bills dropped back to pass on 21 of their first 23 plays.
? Allen threw for 415 yards, three TD?s.
? Seven of their nine games went over the total.

Atlanta 34, Broncos 27
? First 3 quarters: Denver ran 41 plays for 184 yards, 6 points.
? 4th quarter: Denver ran 32 plays for 260 yards, 21 points, but that garbage time.
? Broncos gave up 26+ points in five of their last six games.
? Atlanta won field position by 12 yards.

? Falcons won three of last four games, after an 0-5 start.
? Falcons in first half: 4 drives, 42 plays, 268 yards, 20 points.
? Atlanta led six of its nine games at halftime.
? WR Zaccheaus caught four passes for 103 yards.

Tennessee 24, Bears 17:
? Bears had ball 6 times in 1st half: 26 plays, 92 yards, zero points.
? Foles threw 52 passes; Chicago ran ball only 20 times.
? Bears lost their last three games, after a 5-1 start.
? Chicago converted only 2-15 third down plays.

? Titans led 10-0 at half, scored a defensive TD late in 3rd quarter to go up 17-0.
? Tennessee was outgained 375-228, but they had the lead, and they sat on it.
? Titans were +2 in turnovers, are +9 for the season.
? Tennessee won four of five home games, winning by 3-26-6(ot)-7 points.

Ravens 24, Indianapolis 10:
? Indy led 10-7 at half; Ravens? only TD was scored by their defense.
? Ravens in first half: 25 plays, 61 yards, five punts.
? Ravens in second half: 39 plays, 211 yards, 17 points.
? Five of seven Raven games stayed under the total.
? Ravens covered 15 of their last 19 post-bye games.

? Colts in second half: 30 plays, 128 yards, no points.
? Indy lost three of its four home games.
? In their last three games, Colts ran ball 54 times for only 229 yards.
? Colts lost four of last five games with Baltimore.
? Teams combined to convert only 7-25 third down plays.

Kansas City 33, Panthers 31
? Carolina lost its last four games, giving up 27 ppg.
? Panthers covered four of their five road games.
? Carolina scored TDs on their first two drives, led 17-13 at the half.
? Panthers outgained KC 435-397.
? Panthers are 16-10 ATS in last 26 games as a road underdog, 4-1 TY.

? Mahomes threw for 372 yards, four TD?s.
? Chiefs won their last four games, covering three of them.
? Kansas City?s last four drives: 21 plays, 164 yards, 20 points.
? Chiefs didn?t punt until their last drive of the game.

Minnesota 34, Detroit 20:
? Lions allowed 27+ points in their five losses; 23-16-22 in their wins.
? Detroit is +5 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in its losses.
? Lions were outrushed 394-158 in their last two games.
? Vikings won last six series games, all by 7+ points.
? Minnesota in first half: 4 drives, 22 plays, 238 yards, 20 points.

? Cook carried ball 22 times for 206 yards, two TD?s.
? Minnesota covered five of its last six games.
? Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20 in wins.
? Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, zero in its wins (+5).
? Vikings are 19-10-2 ATS in last 31 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY.

NJ Giants 23, Washington 20
? Giants beat Redskins twice, by 1-3 points; they?re 0-7 vs everyone else.
? Giants? last five games were decided by total of ten points.
? Big Blue covered all five of their road games this year.
? Giants are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog.
? Not often a team is +5 in turnovers and only wins by 3 points.

? Kyle Allen dislocated his ankle; Alex Smith subbed in, threw for 325 yards.
? Washington scored only 10 points in three trips to red zone.
? Washington outgained Giants in both games this year, by 97-52 yards, but lost both games.
? Last three years, Washington is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.
? Under is 3-0-1 in last four Washington games.

Houston 27, Jacksonville 25
? Texans gained 300 yards in first half, 128 in second half.
? Watson threw for 280 yards, ran for 50 more.
? Houston allowed 28+ points in all their losses- they gave up 25-14 points in wins.
? Texans won their first road game in four tries.
? Houston won last five series games, by average score of 22-8.

? Jaguars scored TD with 1:30 left, but failed on tying 2-point try.
? Jacksonville missed PAT in 2nd quarter which proved costly later.
? 6th-round rookie Jake Luton (Oregon State) threw for 304 yards in his first NFL start.
? Jaguars lost last seven games, are 1-5 ATS in last six.
? Texans won five of last six visits to Jacksonville.

Raiders 31, LA Chargers 26
? Raiders scored 31+ points in four of five wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
? Raiders won four of their five road games this year.
? Seven of eight Raider games went over the total.
? Only one of the Raiders? four TD drives was longer than 62 yards.
? Raiders won their last three games with the Chargers.

? Chargers appeared to score game-winning TD on last play, but call was reversed by instant replay.
? Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-15 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
? Bolts lost six of last seven games, with two losses in OT.
? Last five Charger games went over the total.
? Chargers outgained Las Vegas 440-320; Herbert threw for 326 yards.
? In last four games, LA scored 15 TD?s on 47 drives; the rookie QB is good.

Steelers 24, Dallas 19
? Steelers outscored Dallas 15-0 in fourth quarter.
? Roethlisberger hurt his knee in 2nd quarter, but led game-winning drive.
? Steelers won first eight games (6-2 ATS), scoring 29.4 ppg.
? They won first four road games, by 10-3-4-5 points.
? Steelers are 2-6-2 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite, 1-1 TY.

? Dallas started their 4th QB in nine games; Gilbert was 21-38 for 243 yards.
? Cowboys covered spread for first time this season.
? Last eight games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
? Last four Dallas games stayed under the total.
? Cowboys are 5-3 ATS in last eight games as a home underdog.

Miami 34, Arizona 31
? Dolphins won last four games, scoring 32.3 ppg.
? Miami scored a defensive TD 4:23 into the game
? Dolphins ran 56 plays, only 8 of them were on third down.
? Miami outscored Cardinals 10-0 in fourth quarter.
? Dolphins are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a road underdog.

? Arizona took 31-24 lead with 2:28 left in 3rd quarter, didn?t score again.
? Cardinals outgained Miami 442-312, running ball for 178 yards.
? Murray threw ball for 283 yards, ran for 106 more.
? Redbirds are 5-11 ATS in last 15 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY.
? Miami won 10 of 13 series games; five of last six meetings were decided by 3 or fewer points.

New Orleans 38, Tampa Bay 3
? New Orleans won its last five games, sits atop NFC South.
? Saints allowed 23-29-27-24-23-3 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
? New Orleans outgained the Bucs 420-194.
? Saints scored TD for of first five times they had ball, fumbled in red zone on 5th drive.
? Buccaneers lost their last five games with New Orleans.

? Only second loss in last eight games for Tampa Bay.
? For entire game, Buccaneers ran ball five times for eight yards.
? Last five years, Tampa Bay is 5-13-3 ATS as a home favorite.
? Four of Bucs? last six games stayed under.
? Tampa Bay went 3/out on their first four drives.

 

[Cnotes53]

This report will update....


121INDIANAPOLIS -122 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.

251CINCINNATI -252 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 73-39 ATS (30.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.

253WASHINGTON -254 DETROIT
WASHINGTON is 19-4 ATS (14.6 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992.

255HOUSTON -256 CLEVELAND
HOUSTON is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) after playing their last game on the road in the last 2 seasons.

257JACKSONVILLE -258 GREEN BAY
JACKSONVILLE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games after the first month of the season in the last 3 seasons.

259PHILADELPHIA -260 NY GIANTS
NY GIANTS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) as a home dog of <=7 in the last 2 seasons.

261TAMPA BAY -262 CAROLINA
TAMPA BAY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game in the last 3 seasons.

265DENVER -266 LAS VEGAS
LAS VEGAS are 15-45 ATS (-34.5 Units) in home games vs. losing teams since 1992.

267BUFFALO -268 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 2 seasons.

269SEATTLE -270 LA RAMS
Sean McVay is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs (Coach of LA RAMS)

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, November 12

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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) at TENNESSEE (6 - 2) - 11/12/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 127-163 ATS (-52.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 15

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CINCINNATI (2 - 5 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (8 - 0) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 112-81 ATS (+22.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 99-72 ATS (+19.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 2-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (2 - 6) at DETROIT (3 - 5) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 31-54 ATS (-28.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 150-190 ATS (-59.0 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
DETROIT is 46-69 ATS (-29.9 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (2 - 6) at CLEVELAND (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 7) at GREEN BAY (6 - 2) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 203-148 ATS (+40.2 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 4 - 1) at NY GIANTS (2 - 7) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 42-66 ATS (-30.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 39-61 ATS (-28.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-2 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 5-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (6 - 3) at CAROLINA (3 - 6) - 11/15/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 126-95 ATS (+21.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
CAROLINA is 72-49 ATS (+18.1 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 66-45 ATS (+16.5 Units) in November games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (3 - 5) at LAS VEGAS (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LAS VEGAS is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 84-114 ATS (-41.4 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 44-85 ATS (-49.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
LAS VEGAS is 26-47 ATS (-25.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LAS VEGAS is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
LAS VEGAS is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (7 - 2) at ARIZONA (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
ARIZONA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
BUFFALO is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (6 - 2) at LA RAMS (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
LA RAMS are 74-105 ATS (-41.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA RAMS is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LA RAMS is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 2) - 11/15/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (6 - 2) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 5) - 11/15/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 273-212 ATS (+39.8 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 89-51 ATS (+32.9 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 97-68 ATS (+22.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 210-155 ATS (+39.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 133-93 ATS (+30.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 130-94 ATS (+26.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LA CHARGERS (2 - 6) at MIAMI (5 - 3) - 11/15/2020, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 43-19 ATS (+22.1 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 131-97 ATS (+24.3 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 131-97 ATS (+24.3 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 104-76 ATS (+20.4 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
LA CHARGERS is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 16

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (3 - 5) at CHICAGO (5 - 4) - 11/16/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
CHICAGO is 57-85 ATS (-36.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Colts (5-3) @ Tennessee (6-2)
? Colts split their last four games, after a 3-1 start.
? Indy split its four road games this year.
? Colts are 4-0 when they score 28+ points, 1-3 if they score 23 or fewer points.
? Indy is 10-12-1 ATS in last 23 games as a road underdog, 0-1 TY.
? Colt opponents converted 23 of last 47 third down plays.

? Five of eight Tennessee games were decided by 3 or fewer points, or in OT
? Titans split their last four games, after a 4-0 start.
? Tennessee won four of five home games, winning by 3-26-6(ot)-7 points.
? Over is 3-1-1 in Titans? home games this season.
? Titans are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.

? Teams split last six series games, after Colts had won 16 of previous 17 meetings.
? Indy won 33-17/19-17 in its last two visits to Nashville.

Bengals (2-5-1) @ Pittsburgh (8-0)
? Bengals lost three of last four games, but covered last three.
? Cincinnati is 6-1-1 ATS overall this season.
? Bengals are 0-3-1 SU on the road, losing by 5-24-4 points.
? Cincy is 13-6 ATS in last 19 games as a road underdog.
? Bengals are 1-5 ATS in last six post-bye games.

? Roethlisberger (COVID list) won?t practice this week, may not play.
? Rudolph (5-3 as a starter) would likely get the nod if Big Ben sits out.
? Steelers won first eight games (6-2 ATS), scoring 29.4 ppg.
? Steelers are 3-1 ATS as a home favorite this year, winning by 5-7-9-31 points.
? Pittsburgh won its last three games, by 3-4-5 points.

? Pittsburgh won last ten series games, four of last five by 7 or fewer points.
? Bengals lost last four visits to Steel City, by 8-15-3-24 points.

Washington (2-6) @ Detroit (3-5)
? Washington is starting its third QB (Alex Smith) in nine games this year.
? Smith is 94-66-1 as an NFL starter; he threw for 325 yards in LW?s 23-20 loss.
? Washington lost six of its last seven games, losing twice to the Giants by total of 4 points.
? Washington is 0-3 SU on road, losing by 1-14-15 points.
? Last 4+ years, Washington is 16-12-1 ATS as a road underdog, 1-2 TY.
? Under is 3-0-1 in last four Washington games.

? Detroit lost its last two games, giving up 41-34 points.
? Lions allowed 27+ points in their five losses; 23-16-22 in their wins.
? Detroit is +5 in turnovers in its wins, minus-7 in its losses.
? Lions are 2-4 ATS in last six games as a home favorite.
? Detroit was outrushed 394-158 in its last two games.
? All three Lion home games went over the total.

? Lions lost 16-14 at Washington LY, their first loss in last five series games.

Texans (2-6) @ Cleveland (5-3)
? Texans split their last two games; both wins were vs Jacksonville.
? Houston allowed 28+ points in all their losses- they allowed 14-25 points in wins.
? Texans are 1-3 SU on the road, giving up 32.3 ppg.
? Over is 3-0-1 in Houston?s road games this season.
? Texans are 0-3 ATS as a road underdog this year.

? Browns scored 6-7-6 points in their losses, averaged 37.2 ppg in wins
? Browns were outscored in second half in six of their eight games.
? Cleveland is 5-4-1 ATS in its last ten games as a home favorite.
? Five of their last seven games went over the total.
? Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven post-bye games.

? Houston won last five series games, all by 10+ points.
? Texans won 16-6/23-7 in their last two visits to Cleveland.

Jaguars (1-7) @ Green Bay (5-2)
? 6th-round rookie QB Jake Luton (Oregon State) gets his 2nd start; he threw for 304 yards in last week?s 27-25 loss.
? Jaguars lost last seven games, are 1-5 ATS in last six.
? Jacksonville gave up 32.3 ppg in their last six games.
? Jaguars are 5-11-1 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.
? AFC South underdogs are 2-7 ATS outside the division.

? Green Bay split its last four games, after a 4-0 start.
? Packers scored 30+ points in their wins; 10-22 points in losses.
? Green Bay converted 48-97 third down plays (49.5%)
? Packers are 8-4 ATS in last 12 games as a home favorite.
? Four of last five Green Bay games stayed under the total.

? Green Bay won four of six series games.
? Jaguars split two visits here, with last one in 2012.

Philadelphia (3-4-1) @ NJ Giants (2-7)
? This is Philly?s first road game since October 11.
? Eagles are 3-0 if they allow 21 or fewer points, 0-4-1 if they allow more than 21.
? Underdogs covered six of their eight games this season.
? Eagles are 7-9 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
? Last four games, Philly allowed 152.8 rushing yards/game.
? Eagles are 2-6 ATS in last eight post-bye games.
? Four of last six Philly games stayed under the total.

? Giants are 2-0 SU vs Washington, 0-7 vs everyone else.
? Giants covered five of their last six games.
? Giants? last five games were decided by total of 10 points.
? Big Blue lost three of four home games, losing by 10-27-2 points.
? Giants are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games as a home underdog.
? NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 12-2 ATS.

? Giants (+5) lost 22-21 in Philly three weeks ago, despite running ball for 160 yards.
? Eagles won last seven series games.
? Eagles won last three visits here, by 5-21-17 points.
? Philly scored 34+ points in six of last seven visits here.

Tampa Bay (6-3) @ Carolina (3-6)
? Tampa Bay won six of its last eight games, but lost 38-3 LW
? Bucs are 3-2 SU on road, winning by 18-25-2 points.
? Last 4+ years, Tampa Bay is 5-3 ATS as a road favorite, 2-2 TY.
? Last two games, Bucs were outscored 45-6 in first half.
? Last week, Tampa ran ball five times the whole game, for 8 yards.

? Carolina lost its last four games, giving up 27 ppg.
? Panthers lost three of their four home games SU this year.
? Carolina covered five of its last seven games overall.
? Panthers are 1-3-1 ATS in last five games as a home underdog.
? Carolina is 0-6 when they allow 23+ points, 3-0 when they allow 21 or fewer.

? Panthers (+8.5) lost 31-17 at Tampa in Week 2; they turned ball over four times.
? Carolina won 10 of last 15 series games; teams split last four meetings here.

Broncos (3-5) @ Las Vegas (5-3)
? Denver won three of last five games, after an 0-3 start.
? Broncos gave up 26+ points in six of their last seven games.
? Denver covered three of its four road games this year.
? Broncos are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
? Four of their last five games went over the total.

? Raiders scored 31+ points in four of five wins; 20-23-20 in their losses.
? Las Vegas allowed 400+ TY in five of its last seven games.
? Raiders converted 13 of last 24 third down plays.
? Seven of eight Raider games went over the total.
? Raiders are 4-5 ATS in last nine games as a home favorite.
? Las Vegas is 2-0 ATS as a favorite TY; both those games were on road.

? Home side won last eight series games.
? Broncos lost their last four visits to Oakland, by 10-6-13-8 points.

Buffalo (7-2) @ Arizona (5-3)
? Buffalo won its last three games, scoring 28.7 ppg.
? Bills won three of four road games, scoring 23.8 ppg (29.4 ppg at home)
? Bills scored 24+ points in six of their seven wins; 16-17 in their losses.
? Buffalo is 4-2-1 ATS in last seven games as a road underdog, 0-0 TY.
? Seven of their nine games went over the total.

? Arizona scored 30+ points in last four games, winning three of them.
? Cardinals split four home games TY; their last three home games were all decided by 3 points.
? Redbirds are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite, 1-2 TY.
? Cardinals are running ball for 162.9 yards/game this season.
? Arizona trailed at halftime in five of its eight games.

? Buffalo won five of last six series games.
? Bills won two of three visits here, winning 19-16 in OT in last visit, in ?12.

Seahawks (6-2) @ Rams (5-3)
? Seattle lost two of last three games, after a 5-0 start.
? Seahawks have scored 36 TD?s on 85 drives this season.
? Seattle is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games as a road underdog.
? Seahawks scored 31+ points in seven of eight games; they scored 34 in both their losses.
? Seven of their eight games went over the total.
? Seahawks allowed 415 TY in seven of their eight games.

? Rams lost two of last three games, after a 4-1 start.
? LA has outscored opponents 100-32 in second half of games.
? Rams won all three home games, giving up 17-9-10 points.
? LA?s last five games stayed under the total.
? Under McVay, Rams are 12-10-1 ATS as a home favorite, 1-1 TY.
? LA is 9-2-1 ATS in its last dozen post-bye games.

? Rams won four of last five series games.
? Seattle lost 36-31/28-12 in their last two games in the Coliseum.

49ers (4-5) @ New Orleans (6-2)
? Mullens gets another start at QB, replacing injured Garoppolo (ankle).
? 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 24-25-43-37-34 in their losses.
? 49ers won three of their four road games SU.
? Over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
? 49ers are 13-9 ATS in last 22 games as a road underdog.

? New Orleans won its last five games, by 6-3-3-3-35 points.
? Saints allowed 23-29-27-24-23-3 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
? New Orleans won three of four home games, winning by 11-3-3 points.
? Saints are 7-14 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite.
? Seven of their eight games went over the total.

? 49ers won four of last six series games; average total in last three was 69.7.
? 49ers won three of last four visits to Bourbon Street; they won 48-46 here LY.

LA Chargers (2-6) @ Miami (5-3)
? Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-15 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
? Bolts lost six of last seven games, with five losses by 5 or fewer points.
? Last five Charger games went over the total.
? Chargers are 9-7-2 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog, 1-0-1 TY.
? In last four games, LA scored 15 TD?s on 47 drives; the rookie QB is good.
? Last two games, LA was outscored 45-25 in the second half.

? Dolphins won/covered their last four games, scoring 32.3 ppg.
? Dolphins scored 20+ points in first half of all four of those games.
? Miami was outgained 913-457 in its last two games.
? Dolphins allowed 17 or fewer points in four of five wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
? Miami split its four home games, winning last two, by 24-11 points.
? Dolphins are 6-1-1 ATS in last eight games as a home favorite.

? Dolphins won four of last six series games.
? Chargers won 30-10 in Miami LY, ending an 8-game skid in south Florida- their last win before than was in the 1981 playoffs.

Ravens (6-2) @ New England (3-5)
? Ravens allowed 17 or fewer points in five of six wins, 34-28 in losses.
? Baltimore is 4-0 SU on the road, winning by 17-14-2-14 points.
? Under is 5-3 in Baltimore games this season.
? Baltimore opponents converted only 11 of last 49 third down plays.
? Ravens are 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.

? New England lost three of its last four games; they were outscored 62-22 in first half.
? Patriots allowed 28 ppg in their last three games.
? New England trailed at halftime in its last five games.
? Last 12+ years, Patriots are 4-0 ATS as a home underdog.
? Three of their last four home games stayed under the total.

? Patriots are 6-4 in last ten series games.
? Average total in last four series games: 54.3.
? Ravens lost four of last five visits here, but haven?t been in Foxboro since 2016.

Vikings (3-5) @ Chicago (5-4)
? Vikings are 2-0 since their bye, running ball for 173-275 yards.
? Minnesota covered five of its last six games.
? Vikings allowed 27+ points in all five of their losses; they allowed 23-22-20 in wins.
? Minnesota has 12 turnovers (-8) in its losses, zero in its wins (+5).
? Vikings are 5-2 ATS in last seven games as a road favorite (0-0 TY).
? Minnesota split its four road games SU this season.

? Bears lost their last three games, after a 5-1 start.
? Chicago has three wins by 4 points each, another win by one point.
? Bears are 13-3-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home underdog, 2-1 TY.
? Chicago split its four home games SU this season.
? Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

? Bears won last four series games.
? Vikings lost 25-20/16-6 in their last two visits to Chicago.
? Minnesota scored 11.7 ppg in last three series games.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL

Week 10

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, November 12

Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis


Sunday, November 15

Jacksonville @ Green Bay
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games
Green Bay
Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Green Bay is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games

Washington @ Detroit
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 10 games at home
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington

Houston @ Cleveland
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 9 games when playing Houston
Cleveland is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home

Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Carolina
Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

LA Chargers @ Miami
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Miami's last 16 games when playing LA Chargers

Denver @ Las Vegas
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Las Vegas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing Denver

Buffalo @ Arizona
Buffalo
Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Arizona is 5-14-1 SU in its last 20 games at home

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Seattle @ LA Rams
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

San Francisco @ New Orleans
San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing New Orleans
San Francisco is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games on the road
New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New Orleans's last 8 games

Baltimore @ New England
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games
New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games at home


Monday, November 16

Minnesota @ Chicago
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago
Chicago is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Week 10
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 10 Betting Angles

The weeks just keep rolling by in this NFL season and it was a break even week for that pre-TNF (Thursday Night Football) run that remains at the status quo.

Baltimore was the side to cash against the Colts, but Tennessee nearly let the Chicago Bears through the back door when all was said and done.

With Arizona and Seattle on deck for next week's TNF game, keeping the fade alive is an interesting proposition.

Both of them are lined on either side of tight pick'em-like games, and for one to cash it would mean that the Buffalo Bills beat both of them in consecutive weeks.

A 13-4 straight up run for road teams in non-conference tilts didn't perform well with Denver, Seattle, Chicago, and Pittsburgh the four losses in a 2-4 week for that previous run.

Going back to that in Week 10 would lead you to Buffalo yet again - at Arizona ? as well as the Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay, and you know the oddsmakers will be hoping the Jags show up.

The high scoring in those non-conference games did continue though, as a 4-2 O/U record against the closing number could have been 5-1 O/U if you got the 'over' in Pittsburgh/Dallas mid-week.

The average points in those six games clocked in at 58.66 bumping that average up yet still. Seeing points in any Arizona or Seattle game is the norm, so who wants to pull the trigger on a Buffalo-Over parlay?

It's not all good news for the Bills on a larger scale though.

Who's Hot and Not

Only 8 of the 32 NFL teams have a losing ATS record when coming off a loss

Only 11 of the 32 NFL teams have a winning ATS record when coming off a win

The specifics of which teams land in either category always have a place, but in the general sense, this suggests that starting with games where you are looking to back a team off a loss versus a team off a win isn't the worst option in the world.

Week 10 starts with one of those games as the Colts (off a loss) visit Tennessee (off a win) in a divisional game that will go a long way in deciding that division.

But it was the curiosity about the Bills/Cardinals game that brought me here to begin with, as Buffalo was starting to look too good to be true.

It will be interesting to see just how interested the market ends up in that game as it's one that has the potential to generate plenty of action or really not much at all. But with the Cardinals needing to rebound off that home loss as chalk before a return match with Seattle next Thursday, do the Bills get burnt by reading too many headlines before their bye week?

This line of thought is also good news for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, who you know will be needed to at least put an outright scare in the Packers for teasers at least. They lost to Houston in a failed comeback, while Green Bay got to beat a San Francisco team that had half their unit still wearing name tags on their helmets.

Who Could You Follow in Week 10?

Colts
Cardinals
Jaguars
Browns
Broncos
Chargers
49ers
Bears

Other plays that would fit this off loss vs off win scenario include Cleveland (-3) vs Houston, Denver (+5) @ Las Vegas, the LA Chargers (+2.5) @ Miami, San Francisco (+10) vs New Orleans, and the Chicago Bears (+2.5) vs Minnesota.

You've really got to spend time doing your homework on some of those games to want to confidently get behind some of those teams, but there is also time to wait as well because it's not likely many of those spreads are going to move too far in the favor of those suggested options.

There are a couple of specific notes to make as well with a few of those games.

For example, Minnesota is one of those 11 teams to have a winning ATS mark off a victory, as they are now 2-0 ATS in that role and covering the number by 8.2 points in those games.

The Miami Dolphins are another one of those 11 teams at 3-1 ATS off a win, with a margin that's actually better than the Vikings at +8.5.

With the Chargers ability to continually find new ways to come up short, taking as many points as you can with them is always going to be the best way to go, and with how the Dolphins grade out in traditional methods on defense especially, Miami's support is always going to be just fine there.

And then there is the 49ers, who've had a few extra days to get those initial greetings out of the way, catching the Saints between division games.

New Orleans couldn't have played much better in that high profile game against Tampa, and a home date against the rallying Falcons next week isn't the best spot to be in by any means.

Flat spot or not, how comfortable can you be holding any 49ers ticket?

 

[Cnotes53]

Colts vs. Titans Week 10 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

The winner of Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 10 will be in the driver's seat for the AFC South crown this year, with a rematch coming against this rival again in two weeks. Both teams are coming off low-scoring affairs last week, but only the Titans were on the right side of their result.

There is far too much ground to realistically think the other two teams in this division will make any sort of threat, so the season could really come down to the next month for both teams.

Oddly enough, the fact that they both come in off the same total result is something we can hopefully use to our advantage this week, as this should be an entertaining game for in-game betting on the side.

Betting Resources

Week 10 Matchup: AFC South
Venue: Nissan Stadium
Location: Nashville, Tennessee
Date: Thursday, Nov. 12, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: FOX/NFL Network

Colts-Titans Betting Odds

Spread: Tennessee -2
Money-Line: Tennessee -135, Indianapolis +115
Total: 48.5

2020 Betting Stats

Indianapolis

Overall: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS, 4-4 O/U
Road: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.0 (Rank 15)
Defense PPG: 20.0 (Rank 3)
Offense YPG: 360.5 (Rank 19)
Defense YPG: 290.0 (Rank 1)

Tennessee

Overall: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS, 5-2-1 O/U
Home: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 29.0 (Rank 7)
Defense PPG: 25.1 (Rank 16)
Offense YPG: 384.6 (Rank 10)
Defense YPG: 394.1 (Rank 25)

Derrick Henry and the Titans are listed as short favorites against the Colts on Thursday night. (AP)

Handicapping the Total

The fact that San Francisco scored that late TD with under 10 seconds left last Thursday to cash 'over' tickets that day was also a first this season. It was the first time in five tries that two TNF teams that were coming off the same total result (both went 'over' or 'under') and that they were able to duplicate the result.

Every other time the result was to flip it, and we've had the likes of Denver/NYJ and Cincinnati/Cleveland put on offensive shows after a rough offensive week, and a rescheduled KC/Buffalo game cash an 'under' ticket after both teams had allowed 40+ the week prior. Prevailing wisdom isn't always the best course of action, and expecting an 'over' between these two teams does make a lot of sense.

Tennessee's defense has still been awful for the better part of this season, and don't let a strong 3+ quarter performance against the Bears lull you to sleep too much. Most defenses seem to get right against the Bears.

The Colts can have a Bears-like performance from time to time, but I'd still like to see the Titans do it two weeks in a row on defense. The Titans three best performances defensively, in that they allowed less than 20 points, came in Week 1 after extensive prep time, against the Bills after extended rest and a very disjointed schedule for the Bills, and then against the Bears.

Then you've got the Colts, who confirmed that the only consistent thing about how the league determines what is and isn't a catch is the fact that they'll likely change their stance on those variables if Dez Bryant is in the building.

Defensively the Colts aren't bad, but Tennessee's still 6-2 SU with that rough defense on one end. Holding them down is far from an easy task, and every Colts road game this year against everyone but the Chicago Bears has gone 'over' the number (3-0 O/U).

The first meeting of the two in a rivalry because it can bring more of a gambling feel to it from a play-calling perspective. Coaches know they'll still have another chance at these guys, and they'll have a full game tape on where to make adjustments and where not to.

A short week without travel is a strong spot for the Titans defense to prove me wrong and show up for two weeks straight, but I'm not sure this early move down with the total isn't just another ?prevailing wisdom? look trying to stay ahead of the market, and one that hasn't really worked for TNF.

I'm willing to go to the high side of this total to see if that 5-1 run on flipping the results gets back to form. I still believe I've got a very suspect Titans defense to help me along (or bail me out late) as well.

Head-to-Head History

Dec. 1, 2019 - Tennessee 31 at Indianapolis 17, Titans -1, Over 41.5
Sep. 15, 2019 - Indianapolis 19 at Tennessee 17, Colts +3, Under 43.5
Dec. 30, 2018 - Indianapolis 33 at Tennessee 17, Colts -5.5, Over 42.5
Nov. 18, 2018 - Indianapolis 38 vs. Tennessee 0, Colts 1, Under 50

Handicapping the Side

Figuring out who is the play on this side is something I'm not all that interested in doing. It is important to keep in mind though as you may be able to take more information from this game and apply it to the spread in the rematch in two weeks much better then trying to get it right now.

Cases can be made for both sides in this spot, and if you can find some spots in-game where plus-money on either side exists on the ML, going that route and calling it a night may be best for your brain as well.

There is the whole idea of having a team off a loss (Indy) against a team off a win (Tennessee) that I discussed here, favoring a pregame lean on taking the points with Indy, but you could just start with their plus-money ML line there and hope they get a lead at some point to where taking back something on the Titans makes sense.

But I'm not going to spend more time than that on this side really. Too close to call, and having a better idea of what's at stake for both sides in that return match is maybe where the brainpower should go.

Key Injuries

Indianapolis

TE Mo Alie-Cox: Knee - Questionable
WR T.Y. Hilton: Groin - Questionable
WR Marcus Johnson: Knee - Questionable
TE Jack Doyle: Concussion - Doubtful
LB Matthew Adams: Personal - Doubtful

Tennessee

WR A.J. Brown: Knee - Probable
G Rodger Saffold III: Shoulder - Probable
DE Jadeveon Clowney: Knee - Questionable
CB Dane Cruikshank: Groin - Doubtful
WR Adam Humphries: Concussion - Out
P Brett Kern: Wrist - Out
CB Tye Smith: Shoulder - Out

2020 Thursday Night Football (TNF) Betting Results

Home-Away: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS
Favorites-Underdogs: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS
Over-Under: 4-4

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/08/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........21-28-1.....42.85%.....-49.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday?s 6-pack
Six interesting spreads in college football this week:
? Colorado @ Stanford (-6.5)
? Baylor @ Texas Tech (-1)
? Penn State (-3) @ Nebraska
? SMU @ Tulsa (-2.5)
? Louisville @ Virginia (-3.5)
? Utah (-3.5) @ UCLA

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 240,839
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?I actually thought that they (Eagles) should have kept Nick Foles rather than Carson Wentz just based off production and where they got to. They won a Super Bowl with Foles. And that was a little bit surprising. But they?re obviously banking on his upside. How many more years do you let it linger before you stick with him or you cut bait? That?s a question only they can answer.?
Brett Favre

Thursday?s quiz
Where did Russell Westbrook play his college basketball?

Wednesday?s quiz
The movies The Hangover and Hangover Part III take place mainly in Las Vegas; the second Hangover movie took place mostly in Thailand.

Tuesday?s quiz
Ben Roethlisberger played his college football at Miami OH

****************************

Thursday?s Den: Doing some thinking out loud??.

13) Russell Westbrook wants out of Houston, after only one year there; he averaged 27.2 ppg for the Rockets LY, but with GM Daryl Morey/coach Mike D?Antoni moving on, Westbrook wants to go elsewhere too. There?s a problem, though.

Westbrook turns 32 today; his salary the next three seasons:
$41 million, $43.8M, $46.6 million. Thats million, with an M.

Trading a contract like that ain?t easy, especially for a guy who?ll be 35 when the contract ends; chances are he would have to go to a bad team if he were to get traded. Would Westbrook be happy playing for a non-contender? Is he ever happy?

12) Pitchers Marcus Stroman (Mets), Kevin Gausman (Giants) accepted $18.9M qualifying offers from their teams Wednesday. Good day for those guys.

Four players rejected their offers: DJ LeMahieu, JT Realmuto, George Springer, Trevor Bauer. Those guys become free agents? and are assuming they?ll make more than $18.9M a year.

11) My Blue Ribbon Basketball Yearbook came in the mail this week, an early Christmas gift. No schedules in the book obviously, since schedules are still being drawn up, but now I can get down to work and start studying rosters.

If you like college basketball, this is a great book to have; all 357 D-I teams are written up. Tons of information, whether you?re a fan or a handicapper.

10) This is very 2020:
Michigan/Florida State?s football teams are a combined 3-7.
Indiana/Northwestern?s teams are a combined 6-0.

9) Maryland?s football team won the last two weeks? they were underdogs of 18-27 points. Not often a team pulls huge upsets like that in consecutive games. Terrapins? game with Ohio State this week was cancelled, after a COVID outbreak in the Maryland community.

8) Ball State 38, Eastern Michigan 31? Wish the LA Rams could pluck EMU?s kicker off their roster right now; kid missed a 53-yard field goal in this game, but ball hit the upright halfway up? very strong leg. He?ll be kicking on Sundays very soon.

Ball State converted a 3rd-and-19 on the game-winning drive; this was a fun game to watch; two good teams.

Eastern Michigan, by the way, has now covered 18 of last 21 times as a road underdog.

7) Louisville Cardinals already lost two starters off their basketball team.

Big guy Malik Williams, co-captain and most experienced returnee for the Cardinals, will miss at least 12 weeks due to an injury to his right foot.

Charles Minlend, a grad transfer from San Francisco, will miss six weeks with a sprained MCL in his left knee.

6) Of the last 20 Masters champs, 12 of them didn?t play on Tour the previous week.

I saw that clip of Jon Rahm getting a hole-in-one Tuesday at Augusta, when he skipped the ball off the water on the 16th hole, and ball wound up in the hole. These guys are insanely talented, and I?m reminded of why I quit playing a long time ago. They get hole-in-ones when they intentionally hit the ball in the water. I was life and death to break 100.

It takes a tremendous effort to become good, then stay good at golf. Putting is fun, chipping is kind of fun, watching the ball you just hit go in the woods is no fun at all. Best part of golf, by the way, is driving the cart. Driving a golf cart is tremendous.

5) When CBS announces the field for the NCAA basketball tournament in March, they should recruit CNN?s John King to reveal the field on his touch-screen. The guy was masterful running between screens on Election Night; he?d be good showing us the brackets.

4) College football games postponed/cancelled this weekend:
LSU-Alabama, Auburn-Miss State, Georgia-Missouri, Ohio State-Maryland.

3) Actress Jennifer Garner has an excellent agent; no idea who it is, but she is always on TV in commercials for Capital One and Neutragena. She does more commercials than Baker Mayfield.

2) Get well soon to Michigan State hoop coach Tom Izzo, Arkansas football coach Sam Pittman, both of whom tested positive for COVID recently.

1) Guy named Dan LeBatard has been on ESPN radio/TV for long time; I?ve never been a big fan of his show, but he did something pretty cool this week.

A long-time producer on LeBatard?s show was recently laid off, one of 300 people laid off by ESPN. No one saw this coming, and LeBatard was annoyed? he re-hired the guy, and is paying him out of his own pocket. That is loyalty; remains to be seen if the show will be staying on ESPN for much longer.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 12

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

IND at TEN 08:20 PM

IND -1.0

U 48.5

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/08/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........22-29-1.....43.13%.....-49.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s 6-pack
Six interesting spreads in the NFL this week:
? Buffalo @ Arizona (-2.5)
? Seattle @ LA Rams (-1.5)
? San Francisco @ New Orleans (-9.5)
? LA Chargers @ Miami (-1.5)
? Baltimore (-7) @ New England
? Minnesota (-2.5) @ Chicago

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 242,073
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Prediction of the Day
?Saturday is the 50th anniversary of the 1970 Marshall football team, and emotions run high when that team is mentioned in and around Huntington. The Thundering Herd haven?t lost on this weekend since 2011. Expect big things for Doc Holliday?s team as their quest for an undefeated season continues.?
ESPN?s Stanford Steve, who picks Marshall (-23.5) to win, 54-18

Friday?s quiz
Which former NFL head coach was Ryan Tannehill?s college coach at Texas A&M, and is the guy who switched Tannehill from WR to quarterback?

Thursday?s quiz
Russell Westbrook played his college basketball at UCLA.

Wednesday?s quiz
The movies The Hangover and Hangover Part III take place mainly in Las Vegas; the second Hangover movie took place mostly in Thailand.

***************************

Friday?s Den: Random stuff with weekend here??

If you watched the Odd Couple TV show back in the day, this should ring a bell: today is November 13, the day Felix Unger was asked to leave his place of residence.

One of my all-time favorite TV shows, it revolved around two divorced guys who shared a New York City apartment. Tony Randall/Jack Klugman made it a memorable show.

13) Colts 34, Tennessee 17:
? Colts outscored Tennessee 21-0 in the second half- they blocked a punt for a TD.
? Indy won three of its five road games this year.
? Colts are 5-0 when they score 28+ points, 1-3 if they score 23 or fewer points.
? Both teams are 6-3; they play again in two weeks.

? Titans are 2-3 in their last five games, after a 4-0 start.
? Over is 4-1-1 in Titans? home games this season.
? Titans are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
? In last three visits to Nashville, Colts won 33-17/19-17/34-17.

12) Trevor Daniel was the Titans? punter in this game, Tennessee?s third punter in three weeks. When Daniel came in to Titans? facility to take his COVID test, he was wearing the uniform he wore while driving a FedEx truck, which was his job before the Titans signed him.

Daniel had a 17-yard punt in this game, then his next punt was blocked for a TD. He?ll probably be needing that FedEx uniform pretty soon, though the blocked punt wasn?t his fault. Maybe the special teams coach will be working at FedEx.

11) Thru nine weeks, here is how penalties compare, from year-to-year:
offensive holding: 2019- 565, this year- 280
offensive pass interference: 2019- 81, this year- 42

This is a positive development; no one pays to watch officials throw flags. The league always say they want more scoring, this is a good way to get more scoring.

11) AFC North teams are 7-0-1 SU against NFC East teams this year; Eagles-Bengals tie back in Week 2 is the only blemish on that record so far.

10) Through two weeks of MAC-tion, road teams are 7-4-1 ATS.

9) Indiana is favored over Michigan State this week, first time since 2002 that the Hoosiers are favored over Michigan State in football.

8) Boise State 52, Colorado State 21:
? Boise blocked a punt for a TD for their first score of the game.
? Boise also blocked a FG for a TD, blocked another punt for another TD, and scored a TD on defense. Colorado State?s defense didn?t play that badly.

7) When CBS unveils the field of 68 for the NCAA basketball tournament in March, they should recruit CNN?s John King to show the brackets on his touchscreen. Election Night had to be a long night for the TV pundits, but King and MSNBC?s Steve Kornacki did their best to keep us informed as to what was going on, from a numerical standpoint.

No way is it as easy to do as they make it look.

6) Brett Favre holds an NFL record, starting 321 consecutive games; Colts? Philip Rivers is #2 on that list, starting his 244th consecutive game at QB last night.

5) Ivy League has cancelled winter sports for this year, so no Friday night basketball games on TV from that league, and one more at-large spot in the NCAA tournament.

4) ESPN2 had a high school basketball tripleheader on last night; first game was from Oak Hill Academy in Virginia, the famous prep school that has seen 35 of its players drafted by the NBA. They have those players? college jerseys hanging on the wall in the Oak Hill gym.

Lebron James? son played in the late game, not even sure if he was playing for his high school team or an AAU team, but it was high level basketball. The recruiting competition for his services should be pretty interesting.

3) This from ESPN?s Chris Fallica:

This is the first November week of college football since Week 12 of 2009 (Saturday, November 21, 2009) in which there is not a single matchup of AP ranked teams. That week, four ranked teams lost to unranked teams (three on the road).

2) Christmas commercials have started on TV; in one, a woman gives her husband this watch, looks like a FitBit, something small like that- she buys herself one too. He gives her a $40,000 pickup truck, and also buys himself one. Seems fair.

1) Daytime TV is horrendous, lot of contrived arguments to try and create interesting TV; this week, they were discussing whether Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence should go back to college next year, to avoid playing for the New Jersey Jets, who are currently 0-9. Oy.

First of all, the Jets have four first round picks in the next two drafts, nine picks in the first three rounds of those drafts- they?ll be improving fairly soon. If they drafted Lawrence and traded Sam Darnold, they?d acquire even more draft capital. Jets are going to improve a lot over the next couple of years.

Playing well in the New York/New Jersey area can be very lucrative. Jets used to have a QB who had a 60-61-4 record starting for them, throwing 170 TD?s, 215 INT?s. Those numbers don?t jump off the page, do they, but that guy is 77 years old now and he still does TV commercials.

You?ve probably heard of Joe Namath, who had two really good years before injuries took their toll on him. He won one Super Bowl title in New York and was set for life, which is why it would be a big mistake for Trevor Lawrence to pass up playing for the Jets.

 

[Cnotes53]

6) Dolphins won their last four games, scoring 32.3 ppg, despite changing QB?s in the middle of this streak; their defense/special teams have scored three TD?s the last two games. Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-15 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.

Interesting matchup of rookie QB?s; Chargers have scored 30.6 ppg in their last five games, so hard to blame Herbert for their 1-6 skid. Tagevailoa is 2-0 starting for Miami, but hasn?t had to do too much, their defense has been that good.

5) Tampa Bay lost 38-3 to the Saints last week; in their last three games, Bucs have thrown 123 passes, run the ball only 54 times- they need more balance, but they?re also still 6-3.

Carolina threw for 340 yards in a 31-17 loss in Tampa back in Week 2; Panthers have lost four games in a row, losing a tough 33-31 game in Kansas City last week.

Teams split last ten series games.

4) Two of the better young QB?s in the game hook up in Arizona, when Bills-Cardinals face off.

Josh Allen has the 7-2 Bills atop the AFC East; he threw for 415 yards in their 44-34 win over Seattle last week. Kyler Murray has the 5-3 Cardinals in playoff contention; they?ve won three of last four games overall, but they?ve split their four home games.

3) Big game in NFC West, with Seattle visiting the Rams. Both teams lost two of last three games; Seahawks scored 34 points in both their losses- their defense has been a problem.

Rams have already played four games in the eastern time zone; they?re 3-0 at home.

2) Ravens as a 7-point road favorite in Foxboro? Wow.

New England lost four of its last five games; they beat the winless Jets 30-27 last week. Patriots scored a total of 18 points in losing their last two home games. Interesting Sunday nite game.

1) Vikings won their last two games, scoring 28-34 points after a 1-5 start; Chicago lost its last three games, after a 5-1 start. Pivotal divisional matchup on Monday night; Bears won last four series games, but they?ve been held under 100 rushing yards in their last six games overall.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sharps on the Rookie

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-2 ATS) at the undefeated 8-0 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2 ATS) have been a popular play this week.

At the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as a few bettors took the opener of +9.5, +8, +8.5, and +8 (some quick air moves), and that was all in one day on Monday with Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger?s status for Sunday uncertain.

The Steelers have been off the board much of the week and sit at -7.5. It?s their first meeting against rookie QB Joe Burrow.

Chris Andrews at the South Point said they got immediate sharp action on the Bengals before taking it off the board.

The lean could be viewed as a bit surprising, considering the Steelers average score this season is 32-19.

Uncertainty Abound

Washington (4-4 ATS) will visit Detroit (3-5 ATS), who hasfailed to cover all three home games at Ford Field this season. However, Washington has lost its last five road games outside of D.C.

Lions QB Matt Stafford is still in concussion protocol and a line hasn?t been offered at most bet shops, but no one is banging on the counter demanding a number, either.

Weather will be a key story with the Texans (1-7 ATS) at Browns (3-5 ATS), although Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield hasn?t broken COVID-19 protocol yet after coming in contact with someone who had it. He?s expected to play.

The Texans are 0-4 ATS on the road and their only wins this season have come against the Jaguars, twice (1-1 ATS). It?s part of the reason why the Browns went from -1.5 all the way up to -3.5 at the SuperBook.

Rain is expected early on Sunday but the winds at 31 mph will pose a problem with both QBs.

Jaguars (3-5 ATS) money showed up at +14 early in the week for their game at the Packers (6-2 ATS), and after a brief stint at -13, Green Bay is a solid -13.5.

Jacksonville has lost its last seven games since upsetting the Colts in Week 1. William Hill?s Nick Bogdanovich says the Packers are their top public play of the week.

The South Point?s Chris Andrews said they had respected money played on the Jaguars.

Divisional Games to Watch

The Eagles (3-5 ATS) opened -3 at the Giants (6-3 ATS) and have been bet up to -3 -120, and -3.5 as of Friday at the SuperBook. The Giants have covered their last three games, one of which was a 22-21 loss at Philly three weeks ago. The road team has covered the last five meetings in this NFC East series.

The Buccaneers (4-5 ATS) hope to regroup at Carolina (5-4 ATS). The Panthers have lost four straight while the Buccaneers got a rude NFC South awakening last week in a 38-3 home loss to the Saints on Sunday Night Football.

The number has been all over the place crisscrossing through the dead numbers of 5, and 5.5. The Buccaneers opened -4.5 and were at -5.5 for most of the week until being bumped up to -6 on Thursday. The Bucs are a public play, but not among the leaders. Joe Public thinks the Bucs stink after last week?s performance.

The Broncos (5-3 ATS) have become a popular sharp play at the South Point and William Hill in their first visit to Las Vegas (5-3 ATS).

The number opened Raiders -4, went up to -5, and has come back down to -4. The Raiders have won and covered their last two games and they?ve gone over the total in seven of eight games.

However, the last seven meetings have stayed under and the Raiders have covered the last five hook-ups with Denver. In the Broncos last six losses, they?ve covered the spread in the next game five times. The public has been betting the Raiders heavy in parlays at the South Point.

Key Late Game Action

Bills at Cardinals

There should be no shortage of points when Buffalo (4-5 ATS) plays at Arizona (5-3 ATS). The Cardinals No. 1 offense (422 YPG) averages a 30-27 score this season.

The Bills have gone 'over' the total in their last seven games following a win while the Cardinals have stayed 'under' in six of eight games giving you lots to think about with the highest total of the week set at 56.5.

The Cards opened -1.5 and have been bet up -2.5. William Hill?s Nick Bogdanovich says the Cardinals have been one of their more popular sharp plays this week.

Seahawks at L.A. Rams

The Seattle (5-3 ATS) at L.A. Rams (4-4 ATS) number has stayed at Rams -1.5 most of the week. Meanwhile the total is hovering between 54 and 55 points despite knowing that the Rams have stayed 'under' the total in their last five games.

The Seahawks average 2020 score is 34-32 and has the worst defense in the NFL.

The underdog is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings. Seattle QB Russell Wilson had four turnovers last week at Buffalo and three weeks ago he had three interceptions at Arizona, both losses for the 'Hawks.

Suddenly the talk of getting an MVP vote has quieted.

49ers at Saints

This is one of the top public sides of the week: San Francisco (4-5 ATS) at New Orleans (3-5 ATS).

The point-spread has gone from Saints -8.5 to -9.5 and the public doesn?t seem to care what the spread is, they love the Saints at William Hill and the South Point.

It?s the ?what we saw last test.?

The Saints have won their last five games and have gone 'over' the total in seven of their eight games with the one 'under' being last week at Tampa Bay in a 38-3 win.

The Saints do enter this game with the third-ranked defense allowing only 311 yards per game.

Ravens at Patriots

Bettors are having no problem laying points on the road with Baltimore (4-4) -7 at New England (3-5 ATS).

?The Ravens, one-way traffic that big and small punters have both been backing consistently,? said BetMGM VP Jason Scott.

The Ravens are their biggest public risk of the week at just about every book, but the spread hasn?t moved which shows you have little the bookmakers respect the public?s opinion.

Ravens average a 28-17 score this season and the team owns the No. 1 scoring defense, allowing 17.8 points per game.

Chargers at Dolphins

The L.A. Chargers (5-3 ATS) have captured the interest of sharp money at William Hill books for their game at Miami (6-2 ATS). The Dolphins have won and covered four straight games but opened only -1 at the SuperBook and by Monday morning they were up to -2.5.

The Chargers buy move came on Wednesday dropping the number to -2 and then continued on Thursday to drop it to -1.5 where it sat as of Friday.

Week 10 - Public vs. Sharp Leans

Sharp

Broncos
Cardinals
Chargers
Jaguars
Bengals
Ravens

Public

Packers
Saints
Ravens
Raider

 

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 10
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: San Francisco at New Orleans

-- The Saints are 14-0 ATS (10.61 ppg) since Oct 16, 2016 off a game as a dog where they covered.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Washington at Detroit

-- Washington is 0-10-1 ATS (-9.50 ppg) since Jan 01, 2012 as a dog of more than three points coming off a game where they did not force a turnover.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Seattle at L.A. Rams

-- The Seahawks are 8-0 ATS (8.31 ppg) since Sep 23, 2018 coming off a loss where Russell Wilson threw at least two touchdowns.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Denver at Las Vegas

-- The Raiders are 13-0-1 OU (10.68 ppg) since Nov 27, 2011 at home coming off a road win where they covered.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: Jacksonville at Green Bay

-- The Packers are 0-10-1 OU (-6.68 ppg) since Oct 11, 2015 coming off a road win where they held their opponent to fewer points than their team total.

NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants

-- The Giants are 11-0 ATS (3.45 ppg) since Oct 22, 2018 as a dog facing a team allowing at least 22.5 points per game.


Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

 

[Udog]

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 15

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

JAC at GB 01:00 PM
GB -13.5
O 47.0

HOU at CLE 01:00 PM
HOU +4.5
U 46.0

PHI at NYG 01:00 PM
PHI -4.5
U 45.0

WAS at DET 01:00 PM
WAS +2.5
O 46.0

TB at CAR 01:00 PM
CAR +6.0
O 49.5

DEN at LV 04:05 PM
LV -3.0
O 50.5

BUF at ARI 04:05 PM
ARI -3.0
O 55.5

LAC at MIA 04:05 PM
O 49.0

SEA at LAR 04:25 PM
LAR -2.5
U 55.0

SF at NO 04:25 PM
SF +10.0
O 49.5

CIN at PIT 04:25 PM
CIN +6.5
U 45.5

BAL at NE 08:20 PM
NE +7.0
U 43.5

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/15/2020 12-11-0 52.17% -50 Detail
11/12/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/08/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........34-40-1.....45.84%.....-50.00