CNOTES 2020-2021 NFL SEASON - NEWS - NOTES - PICKS !

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 8 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson

Odell Beckham Jr. tore his left ACL early in Sunday's game at Cincinnati and is out for the season. The SuperBook factored that in when making the Browns 3-point home favorites against the Raiders.

NFL Week 7 is in the books, NFL Week 8 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes the injury news, which this week features a big loss for a rising Cleveland Browns team: Odell Beckham Jr. is done for the season.

Week 8 Injuries

Cleveland Browns: Beckham suffered a torn left ACL on the first possession against Cincinnati on Sunday, so he now sets hits sights on next year, while the Browns move on without him. Late Sunday afternoon, The SuperBook at Westgate opened Cleveland a 3-point home favorite against the Raiders.

?We knew he was out for the year when we originally set the number,? SuperBook executive director John Murray said. ?He?s worth maybe a half-point to the spread. He?s a good player.?

On Monday morning, the Browns ticked to -2.5. The total opened at 55.5 and was down to 54 by Monday afternoon.

Seattle Seahawks: Running back Chris Carson has a sprained foot, and his status is uncertain for a key Week 8 home game against San Francisco. And Carlos Hyde, Carson?s backup, has a hamstring issue. The Seahawks opened -3.5 at The SuperBook and ticked to -3 Monday morning, while the total was stable at 54.

San Francisco 49ers: Running back Jeff Wilson had a monster game at New England, with 17 carries for 112 yards and three touchdowns, but fell victim to a high ankle sprain. That?s on the heels of Raheem Mostert going on injured reserve with the same injury, so the Niners are thin in the backfield for Sunday?s game at Seattle. Still, this line moved from San Francisco +3.5 to +3 Monday at The SuperBook.

Dallas Cowboys: Quarterback Andy Dalton suffered a concussion on a wicked hit at Washington, so he?s uncertain for a key matchup at Philadelphia on Sunday night, in what?s become an awful NFC East. By late Monday night, The SuperBook still had the Cowboys-Eagles game off the board, awaiting clarity on whom Dallas will have under center.

Denver Broncos: Running back Phillip Lindsay is in concussion protocol, so his status is uncertain for this week?s home game against the Chargers. The SuperBook opened the game at a pick, and by Monday afternoon, Denver was already a 3-point underdog, though that?s mostly due to bettors? impressions of each team.


Week 8 Weather

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: The early forecast is not good for Thursday night in Charlotte. There could be a half-inch of rain during the day, more in the evening, and winds of 10-20 mph. By Monday night at The SuperBook, the total was down 2 points to 49.

Los Angeles Rams at Miami Dolphins: On Monday, the forecast called for a 40 percent chance of rain and wind from 10-15 mph. That?s done nothing so far to the spread of Rams -3.5 nor the total of 49.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills: The forecast calls for rain earlier in the day, but the bigger issue could be wind hanging around, from 15-25 mph. On Monday, the total moved from 44.5 to 44 at The SuperBook.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hot & Not Report - Week 8
Matt Blunt

NFL Week 8 Betting Angles

Last week's piece had another solid showing as divisional home teams went 4-3 straight up to push that run to 16-7 SU since the start of Week 2.

Even in those three outright losses, the Bengals and Jets managed to get against the spread wins, for those bettors interested in taking the points instead with those home underdogs, as 'dogs in general in those division games in Week 7 finished with a 5-2 ATS record with Washington closing as the favorite.

There are a bunch more divisional matchups in Week 8, and some of them could be considered ?Game of the Week? type candidates with the likes of Pittsburgh-Baltimore, and San Francisco-Seattle likely to get plenty of attention.

Those runs in division games that I outlined last week are definitely something to keep in the back of your mind as the Week 8 board gets broken down, but this week's piece shifts slightly away from that for one, and rehashes an even older run I mentioned a few weeks ago that continues to pay off.

Who's Hot

Since the start of Week 5, NFL underdogs in non-division Conference games are 11-4 ATS overall, including 8-2 ATS the last two weeks.

This run may have hit its peak in Week 6 with 'dogs going 6-0 ATS when the following underdogs connected:

Denver (at New England)
Chicago (at Carolina)
Atlanta (at Minnesota)
Cincinnati (at Indianapolis)
Tampa Bay (vs. Green Bay)
Arizona (at Dallas)

Things were brought back down to earth in Week 7 with a 2-2 ATS mark for the underdogs in that scenario (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Jacksonville and Chicago), but considering the games that are on the docket in Week 8 that fit into this situation, there are some interesting handicapping questions for every bettor to work through.

Who Do You Follow?

Bengals
Raiders
Jets
Bears
Giants

The Week 8 non-division Conference underdogs that would be in this 'play on' spot are Cincinnati +5.5 (vs. Tennessee), Las Vegas +2.5 (at Cleveland), the New York Jets +19.5 (at Kansas City), Chicago +2.5 (vs. New Orleans), and the New York Giants (+10.5) vs Tampa Bay.

Now, it's understandable for most to want to have nothing to do with either of the New York squads right off the bat and I don't think anyone can blame you for not wanting to back the Jets or the Giants right now.

But those are still a lot of points to pass up in both of those games, as I do think the most likely result in the big picture is seeing at least one of those New York teams cover the number.

Who that ends up being is part of the fun of breaking down games each week, but with early support already showing on the Jets ? that line opened up at +21 ? and against the Giants ? that line opened up at +9.5 ? it appears as the early bettors in the marketplace prefer the much bigger cushion with the Jets against a KC team that's got a great chance to potentially be disinterested in being expected to win by 20+.

The other three teams are much more interesting though, with the Bears and Bengals coming in as home 'dogs.

After Chicago's rough offensive showing on MNF, I would expect that number to move against Chicago as the week goes on because that offense shouldn't be able to keep up with New Orleans, at least on paper. With the Saints having covered the last five head-to-head meetings with Chicago ? including a 36-25 win in Chicago last year ? any Bears support is probably best to sit on until later in the week and the line reveals it's nature of movement.

Cincinnati and its defense is going to have to find an answer for stopping this Titans offense that just continues to put up points each week ? they've averaged 34.4 points per game in their last five. But the Bengals have grown used to having a defense that has trouble stopping basically everyone ? Cincinnati has allowed at least 23 points in all of their games since Week 2 ? but they are still 5-1 ATS in that span.

The Bengals have made a conscious effort to make this year about developing the offense in Year 1 for rookie quarterback Joe Burrow and they'll figure out the defense later.

Even without this situational trend suggesting a play on the Bengals, it's teams like the Bengals that put the majority of their effort in on offense that can be a great bet when catching points.


Who's Not

NFL teams before a TNF (or scheduled TNF appearance) are now 2-10 SU on the year and 3-8-1 ATS

This is a run that's just continued on since I brought it up at the start of Week 5.

And after getting burned yet again by the Atlanta Falcons this past weekend (I've personally been on Atlanta vs Dallas, Chicago and now Detroit), and then seeing that the Falcons are up on TNF this week, I thought it best to put out this friendly reminder (for myself and others) to really think long and hard about backing these teams in this spot.

The Carolina Panthers are the Falcons opponent this week, and while Carolina did account for one of those three ATS wins when they covered vs New Orleans, they still found a way to lose outright.

I put in the ?scheduled TNF appearance? because of what happened with the Chiefs/Bills game that was originally scheduled for a TNF appearance before virus issues pushed that game back to Monday.

Even still, the week before the Chiefs and Bills met, the Raiders upset the Chiefs as huge underdogs, and Buffalo got their doors blown off by the Titans. Those two results are included in that 2-10 SU run.

Who do you Fade?

Packers
49ers

And bringing up the reminder for this scenario this week is important because with Week 9's TNF game slated for Green Bay at San Francisco, we've got two high profile Week 8 games (Minnesota at Green Bay, SF at Seattle) where it's applicable.

Minnesota has not had this year go as planned, but they are coming off a bye week (extra prep time) and are a team that the majority of the marketplace has already written off. With Green Bay being one of the most popular selections across the board in Week 7 and cashing easily vs Houston, support for the Packers will likely be through the roof again this week.

But any team off a bye should always be considered at least a little dangerous from an ATS perspective, especially when it's a divisional opponent they know rather well.

It's also one of the ultimate ?buy low, sell high? scenarios as buying low on the Vikings with the market perception being so negative on them, and selling high on a Packers team that just got the masses paid after a small setback in Tampa Bay. It really is tough to ignore getting that TD with a post-bye week Vikings squad.

Fading the 49ers as a small road 'dog should make many happy that they get to back QB Russell Wilson in that case, but as I talked about in this piece before the Arizona game, Seattle's still a bad team on 3rd down (AKA ?the money down?) on both sides of the ball (5-for-13 on offense vs Arizona).

The 519 total yards Seattle's defense gave up put them in the NFL record books for the most yards allowed through six games in the history of the league (2,875), and if that's not the profile of a bad football team, I'm not sure what is.

The situation may favor a play on Seattle in this spot, but the blind spot in the market right now with many believing Seattle is actually a good football TEAM is something that's probably better to look to exploit rather than back.

Meaning as funny as this may sound, it's actually the 1-5 SU Minnesota Vikings that appear to be the much better bet than the 5-1 Seattle Seahawks.

Many won't agree with that and that's fine, I've got no problem letting the ?One Man Army? that the Seahawks are with Russell Wilson continue to be overvalued.

I'm sure the band Our Lady Peace and their 90's hit ?One Man Army" from my formative years would be proud of what they see in the Seahawks this year.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday?s 6-pack
Odds for the PGA event in Bermuda this week:
11-1? Zalatoris
14? Todd
20-1? Varner
25-1? Grillo
28-1? Redman
35-1? Hoffman, McCarthy, Norlander, Stenson, Suh, Tringale, Ventura, Wise

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 227,421
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?The only motive was that the lineup the Dodgers feature is as potent as any team in the league. I felt Blake had done his job and then some. Mookie [Betts] coming around the third time through, I value that. I totally respect and understand the questions that come with [the decision]. Blake gave us every opportunity to win. He was outstanding.?
Kevin Cash, trying to explain why he took Blake Snell out Tuesday

Thursday?s quiz
Who was the Carolina Panthers? QB the first time they played in a Super Bowl?

Wednesday?s quiz
Bills? QB Josh Allen played his college football at Wyoming

Tuesday?s quiz
Oakland/LA/Las Vegas Raiders haven?t won a road playoff game since 1980; they got their last road playoff win against the Chargers in San Diego.


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Thursday?s Den: Doing some thinking out loud??.

13) First of all, thanks to all the MLB/NBA players (NHL too, but I don?t want watch much hockey) for entertaining us for the last several months. 2020 has been a cruddy year, and while I know pro athletes make a boatload of money, they put up with unusual circumstances and put on a good show for us this season. Their efforts are appreciated.

12) NBA?s revenue dropped 10% to $8.3B for the 2019-20 season amid losses because of the coronavirus pandemic. Losses included $800M loss in gate receipts and a $400M loss in sponsorships and merchandise.

Losses also included $200M in deemed ?net negative impact? from a months-long splintering of a partnership with China, after then-Rockets GM Daryl Morey tweeted something about Hong Kong that ticked off the Chinese government.

11) Speaking of Morey, he lands on his feet in Philadelphia, where he will be named president of basketball operations, with Elton Brand staying on as GM of the 76ers.

An educated person told me that he thinks the Sixers will play Ben Simmons inside at the 5 (center), where he will be a superior passer.

10) Utah Jazz are being sold for $1.6B, so while NBA revenues are down, owning an NBA team is still a good thing.

9) If travel between US and Canada still isn?t allowed by the time the NBA season starts, then Kansas City is pushing to be the temporary home of the Toronto Raptors.

There was a time when Kansas City had an NBA team; the Kings later moved to Sacramento.

8) Sunday night?s Seattle-Arizona game was the 14th NFL game since 1988 where both teams gained 500+ total yards.

7) Wisconsin Badgers have 12 COVID positives, their game with Nebraska this week has been cancelled. Badgers? head coach and two of their QB?s tested positive over the weekend.

6) National League has now won seven of the last 11 World Series.

5 LA Rams changed kickers Tuesday; Sam Sloman was told to take a hike, and Kai Forbath is the new kicker.

4) There are rumors floating around that Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence may stay in college for his senior season, instead of going to the NFL, if the Jets wind up with the #1 pick.

Thing is, Jets have a bunch of high draft picks coming up, and figure to get more if they deal Sam Darnold; they may not be terrible for much longer.

3) I stumbled upon the movie Brian?s Song the other night, the 1971 original with James Caan and Billy Dee Williams. Great movie, sad movie, the true story of the friendship between two running backs on the Bears, Gale Sayers and Brian Piccolo.

I was 10 years old when it first aired on ABC?s Tuesday Night Movie; first movie that made me cry. If you see it on your TV listings, it is well worth watching.

2) Tuesday night, top of the 4th inning, and FOX does an interview with Kevin Cash while the game is going on; WHY?!?!?!? It is the bleeping World Series and you?re bothering a manager to do a nonsensical interview. Maybe if they asked him if he was going to stupidly remove his pitcher after 73 pitches, then maybe the interview would?ve made sense.

Speaking of Blake Snell, last time he finished the 6th inning was 20 starts ago, back in July 2019. But he was rolling Tuesday night; it was almost like they wanted to take him out.

1) Case Keenum is the backup QB in Cleveland this year; I?m hoping he writes a book someday, because he?s had an interesting career:

2007-11? Keenum was a 4-year starter for the Houston Cougars; he threw for 19,217 yards and 155 touchdowns. They retired his number.
2012? Keenum wasn?t drafted, but made the Houston Texans? practice squad.
2013? Went 0-8 as the Texans? starter.

2014? Bounced between St Louis/Houston, going 2-0 as the Texans? starter.
2015-16? Went 7-7 as starter for the Rams, as they moved from St Louis to Los Angeles; he was 4-5 as Rams? starter in 2016, before he got benched in favor of rookie Jared Goff.
2017? Went 11-3 as the starter in Minnesota; they pulled off a late-game miracle and beat the Saints 29-24, then lost 38-7 to the Eagles.

2018? Went 6-10 as the starter in Denver- they lost their last four games.
2019? Went 1-7 as the starter in Washington; was benched for rookie Dwayne Haskins.
2020? Is now Baker Mayfield?s backup in Cleveland.

 

[Cnotes53]

Falcons vs. Panthers Week 8 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

We are already at Week 8 of this very unusual 2020 NFL season, and with the expanded playoffs in place this year, talk about playoff seeding and who's got a chance to get in etc is getting ready to dominate the airwaves.

It's also a point in the season where many of the teams in the bottom half of the standings right now are likely a loss or two away from punting on the campaign, so keep that in mind as well in the coming weeks.

The Atlanta Falcons are one of those organizations that are basically already in that punt mode for 2020 and they really have nobody but themselves to blame. They've given away wins vs Dallas, Chicago, and Detroit already this year, so the 1-6 SU record that they enter this Thursday Night Football (TNF) game with really should be much closer to .500.

I'm not entirely sure if that's an indictment on just how many self-inflicted mistakes this organization has made since losing the Super Bowl a few years ago, but I do know that the majority in the market would believe it to be so.

So the question is, can that be exploited in this divisional rematch game (Carolina won 23-16 in Atlanta a few weeks back) or is this just going to be another case of the Falcons finding new and creative ways to get in the way of their own success?

Betting Resources

Week 8 Matchup: NFC South
Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina
Date: Thursday, Oct. 29, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

The Panthers seek the season sweep of the Falcons after winning in Atlanta earlier this month. (AP)

Falcons-Panthers Betting Odds

Spread: Carolina -3
Money-Line: Carolina -140, Atlanta +130
Total: 50.5

2020 Betting Stats

Atlanta

Overall: 1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Road: 1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 26.3 (Rank 13)
Defense PPG: 29.6 (Rank 26)
Offense YPG: 401.0 (Rank 6)
Defense YPG: 425.9 (Rank 31)

Carolina

Overall: 3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
Home: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 23.1 (Rank 25)
Defense PPG: 24.0 (Rank 13)
Offense YPG: 369.1 (Rank 15)
Defense YPG: 351.1 (Rank 13)

Handicapping the Total

Carolina's 23-16 win over the Falcons a few weeks back was a dead nuts to the 'under', but it was also a game that was dominated by drives from both teams stalling.

Six total FG's were kicked in that game, and four of those six came from inside 40 yards as it was the Panthers who accounted for three of those four sub-40 yard tries.

Oddly enough, that's actually a positive for this Falcons defense, and for 'under' thoughts, but I'm not sure they'll be able to duplicate that performance and get off the field on 3rd down as much as they did in that game.

Carolina still converted 50% of their 3rd downs in that game (6-for-12), and on the road this year, Atlanta has allowed opponents to convert 47% of their 3rd downs. That number puts them in the bottom third of the league overall and puts them right in line with what happened in the first game.

However, at the same time, Carolina's 2nd last in the league in overall opponent 3rd down conversion percentage at 56.32%, as they are a team that has only really gotten worse in that regard.

The better than projected start that this new coaching regime (Matt Rhule) had in Carolina has cooled off a bit now, and even with all of the blunders Atlanta has committed this year (and previous years) in blowing games, they are still a team loaded with talent on offense if quarterback Matt Ryan can consistently protect the ball and get it to all those weapons he does have.

Put it all together, and even with it being a short week and those games tending to lean towards lower scoring affairs, the only way I can look at this total is to go 'over' the number. Carolina might have running back Christian McCaffrey back this week and I don't need to go on to explain how big of a weapon he is for this team.

Finally, in each of the last two seasons, these two teams have always managed to cash the opposite result on the total in their 2nd meeting of the year ? ie if the first game went 'over' the second went 'under' ? and after some initial action bumped this total down, it's started to climb back up and over the 50-point threshold.

Hard not to agree with that latter move in this instance.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 11, 2020 - Carolina 23 at Atlanta 16, Panthers +2.5, Under 53.5
Dec. 8, 2019 - Atlanta 40 vs. Carolina 20, Falcons -3.5, Over 48
Nov. 17, 2019 - Atlanta 29 at Carolina 3, Falcons +3.5, Under 49
Dec. 23, 2018 - Atlanta 24 at Carolina 10, Falcons -3, Under 46

Handicapping the Side

The Falcons may not have a lot going for them in terms of how they are viewed by the outside world, but they are 2-1 ATS this season as an underdog, and since the start of last season, traditional TNF games (not counting Thanksgiving) between division rivals has seen the underdog go on to cash a spread wager in eight of their 10 opportunities.

That includes a 2-0 ATS mark this season with the New York Giants covering at Philadelphia last Thursday and Cincinnati earning the late cover at Cleveland in Week 2.

But understandably so, trusting the Falcons to get the job done is going to be next to impossible for many in the betting market with them getting less than a FG here.

There really is very little defense for some of the gaffs this team has had in blowing games this year, but there are plenty of other teams in this league that are just as average overall as the Falcons are, but they get a pass because they tend to win all the close games they are in. The Seattle Seahawks (up until losing to Arizona last week) come to mind.

The Falcons are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Panthers, and that includes games that were played in the years that Carolina and Atlanta ultimately made a Super Bowl appearance.

It's far from the best number to be confident in backing this 2020 Atlanta team, but as tough as it may be to submit a wager on the Falcons, they are the only way I can look at the side. That being said, +2.5 is not something I'm excited at all about taking.

Therefore, I do believe that the best way to go overall in this game is to actually go the teaser route with both the side and total. Remember, you can't blow as many games as the Falcons have of late without first having a lead, and with a team like Atlanta that you know always finds a way to play tight games, taking all the points you can with them is a plus.

So teasing the Falcons up to +8.5 with the total down to 44.5 on a 6-point teaser is where my money has landed this week.

Key Injuries

Atlanta

DE Takkarist McKinley: Groin - Questionable
OT Kaleb McGary: Elbow - Questionable
C Alex Mack: Knee - Questionable
WR Julio Jones: Hip - Questionable
WR Russell Gage: Knee - Questionable

Carolina

RB Christian McCaffrey: Ankle - Doubtful
DE Zach Kerr: Toe - Questionable
DE Efe Obada: Back - Questionable
DE Marquis Haynes: Knee - Questionable
CB Eli Apple: Hamstring - Questionable
OT Russell Okung: Calf - Questionable
G John Miller: Ankle - Questionable

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 29

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ATL at CAR 08:20 PM
ATL +1.5
O 52.0
+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

10/29/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
10/26/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/25/2020 9-12-1 43.18% -2100 Detail
10/22/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/19/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/18/2020 9-14-1 39.58% -3200 Detail
10/13/2020........NO PLAYS...........Detail
10/12/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail
10/11/2020 3-5-0 37.50% -1250 Detail
10/08/2020 0-2-0 0.00% -1100 Detail
10/05/2020 1-3-0 25.00% -1150 Detai
10/04/2020 12-11-1 52.08% -50 Detail
09/28/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/27/2020 11-17-0 39.29% -3850 Detail
09/24/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/21/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/20/2020 15-11-0 57.69% +1450 Detail
09/17/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/14/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
09/13/2020 11-14-1 44.00% -2100 Detail
09/10/2020 2-0-0 100.00% +1000 Detail

Totals........86-97-4.......46.99%.....107.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack
? AJ Hinch will be next manager of the Detroit Tigers.
? Milwaukee Brewers won?t pick up the 2021 option of 14-year veteran Ryan Braun.
? Tampa Bay won?t pick up the options of Charlie Morton, Mike Zunino.
? Hedge fund guy Steve Cohen was confirmed as the new owner of the Mets.
? Maryland 45, Minnesota 44 OT? Gophers missed a PAT in overtime.
? Tulsa 34, East Carolina 30? Tulsa scored winning TD with 0:29 left.

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 228,808
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?When we got to the lobby, she stopped the wheelchair and walked around to face me. With a look of seriousness in her eyes, she told me, ?I can?t tell you how happy I am to take you out of this hospital in a wheelchair instead of a body bag?.?
This is what a nurse said to a COVID patient leaving a Texas hospital this week

Saturday?s quiz
Which college basketball conference has three teams whose mascot is a Ram?

Friday?s quiz
John Fox was the Carolina Panthers? coach the first time they played in a Super Bowl.

Thursday?s quiz
Jake Delhomme was the Carolina Panthers? QB the first time they played in a Super Bowl.


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SaturdaysDen: NFL trends with Week 8 upon us

Before we start with today?s list of NFL trends, here are just some of the many reasons why I voted for Joe Biden this week. I don?t belong to a political party; I?m posting these because I think it is important that Biden wins, for the sake of our democracy and the rule of law.

? Joe Biden was Vice-President for 8 years; he knows how the government is supposed to run.

Trump went broke running a casino. He still has $1B in outstanding debt.

? Joe Biden wears a mask when he is out in public.

Trump?s negligence has helped kill 228,000 Americans.

? Trump paid someone to take the SAT?s for him.
? Trump is a racist; the American President shouldn?t be a racist.

? Joe Biden?s four granddaughters did a video telling stories about everyday things like how he calls them all the time, how he likes ice cream, normal family stuff. He?s a good person.

Trump?s niece wrote a book saying what a cruddy person her uncle is.

? Did I mention that Trump went broke running a casino, or that the NFL wouldn?t let him buy the Buffalo Bills, or that in the mid-80?s, he ruined the USFL?

We all have to do what we think is best, but I like living in a democracy, and the best way to preserve this democracy is if Joe Biden gets elected next week.

On to random NFL trends??.
13) Five of Chicago?s last six games stayed under the total.

12) Detroit?s three wins stayed under the total; their three losses losses all went over.

11) Over is 4-0-1 in Tennessee?s last five games.

10) In their last four games, Jacksonville allowed 20.8 ppg, just in the 2nd half!!!

9) Tampa Bay outscored its last four foes 64-23 in the second half.

8) Giants covered four of their last six games; their last three games were decided by a total of five points.

7) Colts won four of their last five games; they converted 19 of last 41 third down plays.

6) 49ers outscored their last two opponents 44-9 in the first half.

5) Green Bay won/covered five of its six games; their last three games stayed under.

4) Buffalo?s first four games: they scored 30.8 ppg
Buffalo?s last three games: they scored 17 ppg

3) Over is 6-0 in Raider games; they gave up 30+points in five of those games.

2) Dallas is 0-7 against the spread this season.

1) Cleveland scored 32+ points in its five wins, 6-7 points in their losses.

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: SaturdaysDen: NFL trends with Week 8 upon us

Before we start with today?s list of NFL trends, here are just some of the many reasons why I voted for Joe Biden this week. I don?t belong to a political party; I?m posting these because I think it is important that Biden wins, for the sake of our democracy and the rule of law.

? Joe Biden was Vice-President for 8 years; he knows how the government is supposed to run.

Trump went broke running a casino. He still has $1B in outstanding debt.

? Joe Biden wears a mask when he is out in public.

Trump?s negligence has helped kill 228,000 Americans.

? Trump paid someone to take the SAT?s for him.
? Trump is a racist; the American President shouldn?t be a racist.

? Joe Biden?s four granddaughters did a video telling stories about everyday things like how he calls them all the time, how he likes ice cream, normal family stuff. He?s a good person.

Trump?s niece wrote a book saying what a cruddy person her uncle is.

? Did I mention that Trump went broke running a casino, or that the NFL wouldn?t let him buy the Buffalo Bills, or that in the mid-80?s, he ruined the USFL?

We all have to do what we think is best, but I like living in a democracy, and the best way to preserve this democracy is if Joe Biden gets elected next week.

On to random NFL trends??.
13) Five of Chicago?s last six games stayed under the total.

12) Detroit?s three wins stayed under the total; their three losses losses all went over.

11) Over is 4-0-1 in Tennessee?s last five games.

10) In their last four games, Jacksonville allowed 20.8 ppg, just in the 2nd half!!!

9) Tampa Bay outscored its last four foes 64-23 in the second half.

8) Giants covered four of their last six games; their last three games were decided by a total of five points.

7) Colts won four of their last five games; they converted 19 of last 41 third down plays.

6) 49ers outscored their last two opponents 44-9 in the first half.

5) Green Bay won/covered five of its six games; their last three games stayed under.

4) Buffalo?s first four games: they scored 30.8 ppg
Buffalo?s last three games: they scored 17 ppg

3) Over is 6-0 in Raider games; they gave up 30+points in five of those games.

2) Dallas is 0-7 against the spread this season.

1) Cleveland scored 32+ points in its five wins, 6-7 points in their losses.

 

[Cnotes53]

This report will update....

 

[Udog]

Gridiron Angles - Week 8
Vince Akins

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:
Matchup: Minnesota at Green Bay
-- The Vikings are 12-0 ATS (9.00 ppg) since Nov 01, 2009 coming off a loss where they had a player with over 110 receiving yards.


NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
-- The Ravens are 0-11-2 ATS (-5.92 ppg) since Dec 24, 2011 as a favorite coming off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 24 points.


TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Baltimore
-- The Steelers are 8-0 ATS (7.19 ppg) since Oct 14, 2018 coming off a game where James Conner ran for at least 75 yards.


NFL O/U OVER TREND:
Matchup: Tennessee at Cincinnati
-- The Titans are 13-0-1 OU (12.00 ppg) since Dec 30, 2012 and as a favorite coming off a game where they had less than 28 minutes time of possession and allowed at least 14 points.


NFL O/U UNDER TREND:
Matchup: New Orleans at Chicago
-- The Bears are 0-14-1 OU (-8.53 ppg) since Oct 04, 2015 at home coming off a game as a dog where they failed to cover.


NFL CHOICE TREND:
Matchup: L.A. Chargers at Denver
-- The Chargers are 0-11 OU (-8.64 ppg) since Dec 24, 2015 when they are coming off a win and a playing a team below .500 on the season.


Trends are verified using Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

 

[Udog]

Armadillo: NFL leaders in net punting this year:

48.0? Jack Fox, Det
46.8? Jake Bailey, NE
45.3? Cameron Johnston, Phil
44.6? Michael Dickson, Sea
44.2? Tress Way, Wash
43.3? Rigoberto Sanchez, Ind

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 1

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MIN at GB 01:00 PM
MIN +5.5
U 48.0
+500 +500

LAR at MIA 01:00 PM
MIA +3.5
O 46.5
+500 +500

LV at CLE 01:00 PM
LV +1.0
U 47.0
+500 +500

PIT at BAL 01:00 PM
BAL -4.0
O 44.0
+500 +500

NYJ at KC 01:00 PM
NYJ +20.0
O 49.0
+500 +500

TEN at CIN 01:00 PM
TEN -7.5
O 49.5
+500 +500

NE at BUF 01:00 PM
NE +4.0
U 41.0
+500 +500

IND at DET 01:00 PM
IND -3.5
U 49.0
+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

LATE GAMES:

LAC at DEN 04:05 PM
LAC -3.0
U 44.5
+500 +500

SF at SEA 04:25 PM
SF +1.0
O 54.0
+500 +500

NO at CHI 04:25 PM
NO -5.5
U 41.0
+500 +500

DAL at PHI 08:20 PM
PHI -10.5
U 42.5
+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday?s 6-pack
Home favorites/underdogs in college football conferences:

AAC? 5-9-1 home favorites, 4-4 home underdogs
ACC? 11-10-1 HF, 10-5 HU
Big 14? 3-3 HF, 3-3 HU
Big X? 9-5-1 HF, 4-7 HU
C-USA? 2-12 HF, 3-3 HU
Mountain West? 4-1 HF, 3-3 HU
SEC? 9-8 HF, 10-8 HU
Sun Belt? 7-4 HF, 5-2 HU

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 230,626
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?This is what we have, this is our staff, these are our players. So right now, what we gotta do as a group is figure this out ? why we?re blowing these leads that we?re getting, and why we?re not finishing games, like we need to, in the fourth quarter. We did it last week, and we didn?t do it this week. It?s too soon for changes right now.?
Chargers? coach Anthony Lynn

Monday?s quiz
When the Bears won their only Super Bowl, who did they beat?

Sunday?s quiz
When the Chicago Bears won their only Super Bowl title, Jim McMahon was their QB.

Saturday?s quiz
Atlantic 10 basketball conference has three teams whose mascot is a Ram; Rhode Island, Fordham and Virginia Commonwealth.

***************************

Monday?s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Buffalo 24, Patriots 21
? Newton fumbled on the Buffalo 13-yard line in last minute.
? Patriots lost last four games, scoring four TD?s on 39 drives, with 12 turnovers.
? New England is 0-3 on the road losing 35-30/26-10/24-21.
? In his career as a head coach, Belichick is now 58-71 without Brady.

? Bills beat New England for only 6th tine in last 41 tries.
? Buffalo scored 24 points in four red zone drives; NE scored 10 points on three drives.
? Bills ran for 190 yards; Singletary had 86, Moss 81
? Six of Buffalo?s eight games went over the total.

Steelers 28, Baltimore 24
? Steelers won their first seven games (6-1 ATS), scoring 30.1 ppg.
? Steelers are 9-2 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
? Over is 4-1-1 in Pittsburgh?s last six games.
? Steelers won two of last three visits to Baltimore.

? Ravens outgained Pittsburgh 457-221, but turned ball over four times (-3).
? Jackson threw pick-6 in first minute of game; he completed only 13-28 passes.
? Baltimore is 10-17 ATS in last 27 games as a home favorite, 2-2 this year.
? Penalties: Steelers 3-30 yards, Ravens 9-110

Colts 41, Detroit 21
? Colts won five of their last six games.
? Indy scored two TD?s 0:08 apart early in fourth quarter.
? Colts outrushed Detroit 119-29.
? Indy is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 post-bye games.

? Colts? first three drives: 22 plays, 62 yards, no points.
? Indy?s last seven drives: 46 plays, 324 yards, 34 points.
? Lions allowed 27+ points in their four losses; 23-16-22 in their wins.
? Lions are 7-11 ATS in last 18 games as a home underdog.

Vikings 28, Green Bay 22
? Dalvin Cook: 30 carries 163 yards; 2 catches 63 yards, four TD?s.
? Cousins threw only 14 passes the whole game (10.1 yards/attempt).
? Minnesota covered four of its last five games overall.
? Vikings? first four drives: 36 plays, 288 yards, 28 points.

? Green Bay?s first two drives: 28 plays, 147 yards, 14 points.
? Green Bay rest of the game: 38 plays, 214 yards, 8 points.
? Last four Green Bay games stayed under the total.
? Vikings are 3-2-1 SU in last six visits to Lambeau.

Cincinnati 31, Titans 20
? Titans are 4-0 when they score 31+ points, 1-2 when they don?t.
? Unusual thing; neither team went 3/out the whole game.
? Titans are 6-10 ATS in last 16 games as a road favorite.
? While in college at Texas A&M, Titans? QB Tannehill was moved from WR to QB by Mike Sherman, who is father-in-law of Bengals? coach Taylor.

? Bengals converted 10-15 third down plays.
? Cincinnati is 6-1-1 ATS this season.
? Bengals? last six drives: 54 plays, 331 yards, 28 points.
? Cincinnati won five of last seven series games.

Raiders 16, Cleveland 6
? Raiders outgained Cleveland 309-223 on a windy day by Lake Erie.
? First Raider game this season that stayed under total.
? Raiders are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
? AFC West non-divisional road teams are 7-1-2 ATS.

? Browns scored 37.2 ppg in their wins, 6-7-6 points in their losses.
? Cleveland gained only 223 yards, had 14 first downs.
? Browns, Jets, Dallas were only teams that didn?t score a TD Sunday.
? Browns were outscored in second half in six of their eight games.

Kansas City 35, Jets 9
? Winless Jets are 1-7 ATS, losing road games by 10-29-24-26 points.
? Jets have been outscored 81-25 in 2nd half of their last six games.
? Jets are 8-20-2 ATS in last 29 games as a road underdog, 0-3 TY.
? First four times Jets had ball, they tried a FG, making three of them.

? Mahomes threw for 419 yards; Chiefs scored TD?s on 3 of first 4 drives.
? KC allowed 20 or fewer points in their wins, 40 points in their loss.
? Chiefs are 20-11 ATS in last 31 games as a home favorite, 3-2 TY.
? Five of their last seven games stayed under the total.

Miami 28, Rams 17
? Miami had four takeaways, ran punt back for a TD in first half.
? Dolphins allowed 17 or fewer points in their wins; 21-31-31 in losses.
? Miami is 13-9-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home underdog.
? Dolphins are first team since ?04 Colts to lead three games in a row at halftime, all by 18+ points.

? Tell your statistics to shut up: Rams outgained Miami 471-145 (not a misprint)
? Kupp caught 11 passes for 110 yards; he was targeted 21 times.
? Rams lost last five visits to Miami; their last win there was in 1976.
? LA has outscored opponents 103-32 in second half of games.

Saints 26, Chicago 23 OT
? New Orleans won its last four games, by 6-3-3-3 points.
? Saints allowed 23-29-27-24-23 points in their wins, 34-37 in losses.
? Saints won despite converting only 2-13 third down plays.
? All seven of their games this year went over the total.

? Bears led 13-3 in 2nd quarter, but Saints scored TD with 0:03 left in half.
? Chicago?s first four drives in 2nd half: 15 plays, 14 yards, zero points.
? Foles was sacked five times; Saints won field position by 9 yards.
? Bears lost their last six games with New Orleans.

Seattle 37, 49ers 27
? 49ers allowed 16 or fewer points in their wins, 24-25-43-37 in their losses.
? Niners ran ball 22 times for only 52 yards.
? 49ers trailed 30-7 before scoring three TD?s in garbage time.
? Garoppolo, Kittle left this game early with injuries.

? Seattle won six of its first seven games, scoring 35.7 ppg.
? Seahawks have scored 32 TD?s on 72 drives this season.
? Seattle converted 9-15 third down plays in this game.
? Seahawks five 2nd half drives: 38 plays, 203 yards, 24 points.
? Six of their seven games went over the total.

Denver 31, LA Chargers 30:
? Broncos drove 81 yards, scored winning TD as time expired.
? Denver?s last three drives: 25 plays, 236 yards, 21 points.
? Broncos are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games as a home underdog.
? Denver won 11 of last 14 series games.
? Chargers lost seven of last eight visits to Denver.

? LA led this game 24-3 with 7:00 left in third quarter.
? Since Week 2 of last year, Chargers are 2-14 in games decided by 8 or fewer points.
? Chargers lost five of last six games, with two losses in OT.
? Chargers outgained Denver 485-351, but blew that big lead.
? Last four Charger games went over the total.

Philadelphia 23, Dallas 9
? Cowboys were outscored 86-22 in last three games.
? Last six games, Dallas is minus-14 in turnovers.
? Dallas lost its first four road games, 20-18/38-31/25-3/23-9.
? Cowboys are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
? Cowboys are 0-8 ATS this year, joining ?98 Bengals, ?03 Raiders as last teams to start a season 0-8 ATS.

? Eagles won despite turning ball over four times (-2).
? Teams averaged 3.0/3.2 yards/pass attempt. Not good.
? Teams combined to convert 7-24 third down plays.
? At halfway mark of season, 3-4-1 Eagles lead NFC East.

 

[Cnotes53]

Buccaneers vs. Giants Week 8 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

It's been a week filled with nothing but praise for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as you've got mainstream media outlets putting out pieces like ?Why the Buccaneers are the NFL's best team by a mile? and looking over at the situation Tom Brady left in New England and counting on this guy to play forever.

Statistically, the Bucs have been great so far this year and there is no denying that. But we are also just seven games into the year and there is plenty of football left to play. Let's pump the breaks a bit on this prisoner of the moment type mentality.

I mean, Tampa's 5-2 SU, but they were gifted a win against the Chargers when L.A. just completely botched their big lead starting in the final minutes of the 1st half. They beat a Carolina team in their new head coach's first ever career NFL road game (always a great fade spot) and in the infancy stages of a rebuilding program. There was a 28-10 win against a Denver team that ranked 27th in the league at the time in yards per play of offense, and currently ranks 28th in the league in points per game (19.3).

Add in a blowout win over a Raiders team that was dealt a brutal hand late in the week with their positive virus results. There is a case to be made that Tampa's been dealt the best of it more often than not and to their credit have taken full advantage. Not really all that different than what Brady did in New England when he got to beat up on three awful teams twice a year in the AFC East for the bulk of the past decade.

So seven games in, sure, call Tampa Bay the best team in the league by a mile. What does that really matter? Is there some sort of award for that title in this league each week? Who cares who is the best right now other than headline writers and click bait operators.

Yet, here we go again with Tampa getting dealt the best of it. Not only are the 1-6 New York Giants sharing the field with them on Monday night, but just like the Raiders last week, New York got hit with COVID issues late in the week and have had to adjust/pause their preparation accordingly.

Even without that disruption, Tampa Bay was still expected to win this game comfortably, but as I've mentioned numerous times in the past, there comes a point where point spreads simply become too inflated based on the overall perception/belief of a team, and how can a team's spread not get inflated after being called the best team in the league by a mile?

Covering inflated numbers was Brady's specialty in New England though as he consistently found a way to reward Patriots backers or never had any issue with paying that ?Patriots tax?. Brady's shifted that tax down to the Sunshine State this year, but the will the results stay the same with bettors comfortably stepping up and paying that ?Bucs tax? and still getting rewarded?

Betting Resources

Week 7 Matchup: NFC vs. NFC
Venue: MetLife Stadium
Location: East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Monday, Nov. 2, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Daniel Jones and the Giants are coming off a one-point loss as New York hosts Tampa Bay on Monday. (AP)

Line Movements

Spread: Tampa Bay -12.5
Money-Line: Tampa Bay -800, New York +550
Total: 45

2020 Betting Stats

Tampa Bay

Overall: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 4-3 O/U
Road: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 2-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 31.7 (Rank 3)
Defense PPG: 20.3 (Rank 8)
Offense YPG: 371.9 (Rank 15)
Defense YPG: 291.3 (Rank 3)

New York

Overall: 1-6 SU, 4-3 ATS, 2-5 O/U
Home: 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS, 1-2 O/U
Offense PPG: 17.4 (Rank 31)
Defense PPG: 24.9 (Rank 14)
Offense YPG: 282.4 (Rank 31)
Defense YPG: 356.3 (Rank 13)

Handicapping the Total

Statistically there is plenty to like about Tampa through seven weeks, and I would argue that it's the defense that has been the far better unit overall for this team. They are T-1 in the league in opponent yards per play (4.8), 1st in opponent yards per rush attempt (3.0), and #1 in DVOA as has been heard a lot this week.

Numbers like that from this unit and facing this Giants team that's done next to nothing offensively all year does give this game a huge mismatch feel, but it's not like these stats are a secret and they are already part of the process in oddsmakers putting out the side and total numbers that they do.

At the beginning of the week there was some strong disagreement with the opener on the total as came out at 48 and has only really received 'under' support in large part because of Tampa's defensive metrics.

Change for change sake is needed though as the alternative isn't really any better (in either the football game or political metaphor), but banking on this awful Giants offense to pull more than their own weight in pursuit of potentially cashing an 'over' ticket against ?the best team in the league by a mile? is akin to believing the incumbent will all of a sudden stop being as divisive as he is.

Sure, Tampa could do most of the heavy lifting on the scoreboard to help 'over' bettors have hope or even get to the cashier's window ultimately, but if that's the side of the spectrum you land on, isn't backing the Bucs ATS the much better betting option than the total? I would argue that's the case if you do indeed believe this will be a Tampa blowout win.

So passing on having your voice heard in the political realm isn't something anyone should do these days, but passing on this total from both sides is an easy betting decision to make this week.

Head-to-Head History

Sep. 22, 2019 - N.Y. Giants 32 at Tampa Bay 31, Giants +5, Over 48
Nov. 18, 2018 - N.Y. Giants 38 vs. Tampa Bay 35, Push -3, Over 53.5
Oct. 1, 2017 - Tampa Bay 25 vs. N.Y. Giants 23, Giants +2.5, Over 45.5

Handicapping the Side

Passing on the side isn't something I'll be doing here though, as I do believe this spread is one that does look rather inflated. The perception of Tampa Bay is back through the roof as it was when they announced they signed Brady, and while trusting the Giants offense to do enough to help get an 'over' ticket to cash may be tough, trusting this Giants defense to hold on long enough to keep this game within this point spread is far more reasonable.

New York's defense is 12th in opponent yards per play (5.4 ? or 0.6 yards worse than Tampa's), and the level of competition may not be there for recent Giants games either, but they have held three of their last four opponents to 22 points or less, and already have three sub-20 point efforts against Washington, LAR, and Chicago this year.

If they are able to hold Tampa's attack to 21 points or so, asking the Giants offense to put up 10-14 points themselves is a far easier proposition to stomach.

Furthermore, this game might not have anything to do with New England, but Giants HC Joe Judge is intimately familiar with Brady and his tendencies. Brady's never liked sharing the field with the Giants in the past, and I would think that Judge has spent some extra time in those defensive meetings this week to help in any way he can. That's an already situation to have on your side when you are catching nearly two full TD's.

Finally, it might not mean a whole lot to some, but Tampa's also in a potential look ahead spot with a SNF showdown with Drew Brees and the Saints on deck.

New Orleans grabbed that first meeting in Week 1 as Brady worked through the kinks in his first game in a different uniform, and with the NFC South a division that's going to be decided between Tampa Bay and New Orleans, it's easy to figure the Bucs might already have one eye on next week. Survive and advance is the mentality there, not necessarily winning by a big margin.

When it comes down to it, I actually believe all this mainstream praise as ?being the best? is something that could really come back to bite the Bucs in the ass going forward; at least in the point spread marketplace.

It starts this week with the Giants, but with the rest of Tampa's schedule consisting of games vs New Orleans, at Carolina, vs LAR, vs KC, vs Minnesota, at Atlanta, at Detroit, and at Atlanta after this week, Tampa having a losing ATS record the rest of the way is an interesting proposition I'd only look towards the ?yes? on.

The ?Buccaneers tax? is only going to get greater with each passing win and news story of praise, and as long as that is the case, and if you want to ?crown their ass? now, then go ahead, I'll be patiently waiting to take as many points as I can with Tampa's opponents in the weeks ahead.

Key Injuries

Tampa Bay

none to report

New York

none to report

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2

GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TB at NYG 08:15 PM

TB -13.0

O 46.5

 

[Cnotes53]

COMPLETED PICKS

Past Completed Picks

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/02/2020 1-1-0 50.00% -50 Detail
11/01/2020 11-13-0 45.83% -1650 Detail

Total...........12-14-0.....46.15%.....-1700

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s 6-pack
Interesting NFL spreads for Week 9:
? Green Bay (-2.5) @ San Francisco
? Seattle (-3) @ Buffalo
? Denver @ Atlanta (-4)
? Chicago @ Tennessee (-5.5)
? Detroit @ Minnesota (-4)
? Baltimore (-3) @ Indianapolis

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 231,320
PLEASE wear a mask when you go out.

Injury Report of the Day
49ers? quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be sidelined a minimum of six weeks after he sprained his ankle Sunday. Nick Mullens is expected to replace Garoppolo under center for Thursday?s game with Green Bay.

Tuesday?s quiz
In the movie Heaven Can Wait, Warren Beatty played a quarterback for the Rams who dies unexpectedly; what number did Beatty?s character wear for the Rams?

Monday?s quiz
When the Bears won their only Super Bowl, they beat New England 46-10.

Sunday?s quiz
When the Chicago Bears won their only Super Bowl title, Jim McMahon was their QB.

******************************

Tuesday?s Den: Nobody asked me, but??.

13) Didn?t have any Trick or Treaters Saturday night, so I?m stuck with two bags of candy (Three Musketeers, KitKats) that I?ll have to eat? can?t be wasting good candy.

I was reminded Saturday night that the last time Halloween was on a Saturday, I was in Las Vegas, at the SouthPoint Casino, a terrific place.

That Saturday night, I go downstairs to watch some college football in the sportsbook, but I see them rolling out a red carpet by the front door, complete with TV cameras and everything. I ask the security guard what?s up and he smiles: ?Tonight is the Fetish and Fantasy Ball?. Alrighty then.

There are moments when you?re reminded that Las Vegas is different than most anywhere else, and that night was one of those times. They take Halloween very seriously in Las Vegas, and some of the costumes were, how can I say this??.revealing.

Later that night, I?m riding upstairs in an elevator and a couple (in costume) gets on the elevator; he is a prison warden, she is his prisoner, complete with neck and ankle shackles and a prisoner?s uniform ripped in strategic places. The elevator stops at my floor; I wish them well: as I leave the elevator ?I know this won?t be a problem, but have a fun night.? They laugh and the elevator door closes.

Halloween is on a Sunday next year? Hmmmm??

12) Every so often watching NFL games, I?m reminded of something I saw on HBO?s Hard Knocks a few years ago, when they had the Houston Texans on.

This was the last episode of the summer, always the best episode of the series; they?ve chosen the Opening Day roster, and now the team has gathered in the lecture center where they have their meetings. Coach Bill O?Brien addresses the team and I?ll never forget his first words:

?Welcome to the most competitive business in the world.?

It is true, there is such a fine line between being really good and regressing into mediocrity, a couple breaks here and there can make all the difference.

11) I?m thinking about current events and all the legal hassles that are likely to ensue over the next few weeks, then I think of the great author John Grisham, sitting in his home, taking notes and getting 2-3 new books ready to roll, based on stuff that is happening now. I love reading his books; he is such a great story teller.

10) Was looking thru the 2020 Baseball Prospect Handbook that Baseball America puts out every winter, and they had Randy Arozarena ranked as the Cardinals? #10 prospect- this was before he got traded to Tampa Bay.

To say that this guy came out of nowhere to be one of October?s stars this year isn?t an exaggeration; they had him as the #10 prospect out of only one roster, when he turned out to be one of the 2-3 best players in the whole playoffs.

9) Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash is the only guy who has:
? Played in the Little League World Series
? Played in the College World Series
? Managed in the World Series

8) Weirdest part of the White Sox re-hiring 76-year old Tony LaRussa as manager is that I had forgotten that Hawk Harrelson was once the White Sox? GM. Oy.

Harrelson was a slugger who quit baseball to try his hand on the pro golf tour- that didn?t last long, but he was popular in Boston because he helped the Red Sox win the pennant in 1967- he hit a combined 65 homers in 1968-69, but didn?t last much longer after that? he was out of baseball at age 29.

But Harrelson can talk, and he got a gig on Red Sox? TV and then he moved on to the White Sox when he somehow convinced Jerry Reinsdorf to put him on TV in Chicago, where he remained for 30+ years.

In between there, Reinsdorf actually hired him to be the White Sox? GM, where he fired both LaRussa, a future Hall of Fame manager and 29-year old Dave Dombrowski, who went on to be an excellent executive. Lets just say the GM thing didn?t go too well and back to TV he went.

Just reminds you that just because Reinsdorf owned the Chicago Bulls when Michael Jordan played there doesn?t mean he was this brilliant executive. His ownership of the White Sox has been checkered at best.

7) Pittsburgh Pirates turned down an $11M option on P Chris Archer, so he is now a free agent- on July 31, 2018, they traded Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to get Archer from the Rays, then they cut him loose two years later. No bueno.

6) Since Week 2 of last season, Los Angeles Chargers are 2-14 in games decided by 8 or fewer points. They have a rookie QB now, but the kid has been playing well anyway, and they had Philip Rivers last year, so you tell me where the problem lies.

5) Texas Longhorns might be the most interesting team in college football this season; three of their last five games went to OT and one of the other two games ended 33-31.

4) In their last two games, Baltimore Ravens have 242 penalty yards; might be time to bring a retired referee into practice to help the guys straighten out a little. Ravens have also been outscored 49-20 in second half of their last two games.

3) Troy Aikman was saying last Thursday how the Carolina Panthers practice in pads most Wednesdays, and how they hit in practice more than any other NFL team. Will be curious how that effects them as the season goes on. Do they tackle better because of that? Will they get worn down?

2) TV guys were telling a story the other night about LSU offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger, who played QB at LSU in the late 70?s. Ensminger was telling stories about how when he got to LSU, they had ten quarterbacks on the roster? no scholarship limits back then. Took a little longer to climb the QB ladder back then,

These days, no one has experienced backups, because if they ain?t starting, then they?ll be departing, to a school where that they can start. Both of LSU?s backup QB?s this year are freshmen. LSU?s star last year, Joe Burrow, was a transfer from Ohio State.

1) RIP to the great basketball coach Billy Tubbs, who passed away this week at age 85; Tubbs was ahead of his time- his teams played fast break basketball back when coaches often strangled the game, before the shot clock/3-point shot. His teams were great fun to watch.

Tubbs? coaching record:
1971-73: Southwestern: 31-24
1976-80: Lamar: 75-46
1980-94: Oklahoma: 333-132
1994-2002: TCU 156-95
2003-06: Lamar 121-89

Tubbs gave his players the freedom to shoot; he WANTED them to shoot quickly, and that helped his recruiting, since not many coaches did that then. He was definitely ahead of his time. Always enjoyed watching his teams play, RIP, coach.

 

[Cnotes53]

Betting Recap - Week 8
Joe Williams

Overall Notes

The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bengals (+7, ML +260) vs. Titans, 31-20
Vikings (+6, ML +220) at Packers, 28-22
Steelers (+4, ML +175) at Ravens, 28-24
Dolphins (+3.5, ML +155) vs. Rams, 28-17
Broncos (+3, ML +130) vs. Chargers, 31-30

The largest favorites to cover

Chiefs (-19.5) vs. Jets, 35-9
Eagles (-10) vs. Cowboys, 23-9
Colts (-3.5) at Lions, 41-21

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week

The Los Angeles Chargers-Denver Broncos AFC West rivalry has had some amazing finishes over the years. The first installment of this season's series surely didn't disappoint...unless you were holding a Chargers (-3) ticket or a moneyline wager.

QB Justin Herbert and the Chargers fired out to a 24-3 lead midway through the third quarter before Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay galloped for a 55-yard touchdown run to slice the lead to 24-10. Still, anyone backing the Bolts, was feeling pretty good. That Lindsay TD certainly changed the day almost immediately for 'under' (44.5) bettors. It got much worse for the latter - quick.

In the fourth quarter, the Broncos sliced the lead to 24-17 with a nine-yard touchdown pass from QB Drew Lock to TE Albert Okwuegbunam. The Chargers answered back with a field goal with 7:57 to go, making it 27-17. Under bettors couldn't allow another point, but that was quickly dashed just 27 seconds later when Lock hit WR DaeSean Hamilton for a 40-yard scoring strike. Suddenly, Bolts side bettors were feeling the pinch, too. PK Michael Badgley booted a 33-yard field with 2:30 left in regulation to give Chargers side bettors hope. However, rookie WR KJ Hamler reeled in a 1-yard scoring strike from Lock with zeroes on the clock, and the extra point won it for Denver, 31-30. The only time Denver had been ahead was 3-0. Moneyline bettors and side bettors are feeling awfully sick after this one.

The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II

The San Francisco 49ers-Seattle Seahawks game was well decided by the end of the third quarter. The Seahawks (-1) were leading 27-7 after 45 minutes, and it appeared side bettors were going to cruise to a winning ticket. The Seahawks added a field goal to go up 30-7 with 14:07 to go in the fourth quarter. However, a pair of touchdowns cut the lead to 30-20 with 4:16 left in regulation. RB DeeJay Dallas punched in a 1-yard touchdown to make it 37-20, putting side bettors minds at ease. However, that touchdown ended up pushing the total 'over' (54.5). The game ended up with a total of 64 points, but there was 30 total points in the final 14:07.

Total Recall

The lowest totals on the board on the Sunday slate were the New England Patriots-Buffalo Bills (41) and the New Orleans Saints-Chicago Bears (41) contests.

The Patriots-Bills game had a total of just 13 points on the board at halftime, and the 'under' was easily trending after 30 minutes. There were a total of just 20 points on the board until a touchdown and two-point conversion by the Pats with 3:03 to go in the third quarter to make it 14-14. A pair of two-yard touchdown runs by each of the quarterbacks made it a 21-21 game, and barring overtime, and a scoreless one at that, the 'over' was in the bag. And a PK Tyler Bass 28-yard field goal with 4:06 left in regulation gave the home side the 24-21 win. No overtime needed.

The Saints-Bears matchup was a field goal fest through 45 minutes. We had just two total touchdowns on the board with five field goals through 45 minutes, as the Saints clinged to a 16-13 lead. 'Under' bettors were hanging on, with New Orleans leading 23-13 with just under four minutes to go. But QB Nick Foles hit WR Darnell Mooney on a 3-yard scoring strike to make it 23-20. That was all total bettors needed to see.

The highest number on the board was the 49ers-Seahawks game (54.5), and we touched on how that one ended up above. We also had three games with a total of 49. The Indianapolis Colts-Detroit Lions, New York Jets-Kansas City Chiefs and Tennessee Titans-Cincinnati Bengals saw the 'over' cash in two of those three outings. The Chiefs did their part to hit the 'over', scoring 35 points, but the Jets could muster just nine total points in the loss.

In the first two primetime games of Week 8, the under went 2-0, with the Monday night game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants pending. The Atlanta Falcons-Carolina Panthers (52) gave was on pace for an 'over' result, with 30 points on the board at half time. But we saw two field goals and a touchdown with a failed two-point conversion in the final 30 minutes, and that was all. The Dallas Cowboys-Philadelphia Eagles (43) Sunday night affair looked more like a preseason game. It was ugly. Third-string QB Ben DiNucci made his first NFL start in place of the injured QBs Dak Prescott and Andy Dalton, and the visitors actually held a 9-7 lead at halftime. It was all Philly in the final 30, scoring a touchdown, two-point conversion, a touchdown and missed two-point conversion and a safety, while the Cowboys were blanked. Philadelphia won it 23-9, and the 'over' was never threatened at any point.

So far this season the under is 16-9 (64.0%) across 25 primetime games. In 2019, the 'under' went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.

Looking Ahead to Week 9

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)

The Packers are licking their wounds after a 28-22 at home against the Vikings, head coach Matt LaFleur's first loss in the NFC North Division since taking over before the 2019 season (8-1). Now, it's a quick turnaround for QB Aaron Rodgers and the boys, and they might be catching a break. While the 49ers had a spirited comeback in Seattle, it might have come with a cost. QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) limped to the locker room early in the fourth quarter, replaced by QB Nick Mullens, while the team also saw RB Tevin Coleman, WR Dante Pettis and TE George Kittle leave the game for good. It's uncertain how much the lopsided score at the time played in their leaving, whether it was a precaution with a lopsided score and quick turnaround, or if the injuries are serious. The Niners are a difficult bunch to figure, as they won as home 'dogs against the Rams in Week 7, but lost as home favorites against the Eagles and Dolphins in Weeks 4-5.They're 1-3 SU/ATS in four games at Levi's Stadium, including 0-3 ATS as a home favorite. The Packers are 3-1 SU/ATS in four games on the road this season.

New York Giants at Washington Football Team (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Giants picked up their only victory of the season in a 20-19 win over the Washington Football Team in Week 6 as two-point favorites, failing to cover. The 'under' hit in that one, and is 5-2 in seven games overall for Big Blue. For Washington, they had their most complete game of the season before the bye, roughing up the Dallas Cowboys by a 25-3 score in Week 7 as a one-point underdog. The 'under' hit in that one, too, and is a perfect 3-0 for Washington over the past three.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)

The Raiders won 16-6 in the wind and occasional snow on the shores of Lake Erie in Cleveland, hitting a rare 'under' result. The Raiders were the only team in the AFC yet to see an under, going 5-0-1 prior to Sunday. It's uncertain what happened to the Chargers defense, but it's not good. After a 3-0 'under' run to start the season, with the offense averaging 17.3 PPG and the defense allowing 19.0 PPG, we have seen the offense score 31, 27, 39 and 30 across the past four, while allowing 38, 30, 29 and 31. It's like a tale of two seasons for the Chargers. Herbert and the offense is growing into a formidable force, but the defense suddenly doesn't feel it has to be perfect and has been way more giving.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

The Patriots head into this Monday night affair with a 2-5 SU record. That's shocking, as they are now 3 1/2 games back of the first-place Bills, who just edged them 24-21 in Week 8 in windy Buffalo. QB Cam Newton was a little better, but still not good enough, and now the heat will get turned up even more on his seat. Some fans are calling for QB Jarrett Stidham to get the starting nod for the MNF game, and what better place than facing the lowly Jets. On a positive note, the Patriots did cover for the first time since Sept. 28, snapping an 0-3 ATS skid. And the 'over' result against the Bills also pumped the brakes on a 3-0 'under' run. The winless Jets were 19.5-point underdogs on the road against the Chiefs, but they hung in there, down just 21-9 at halftime, and 28-9 after three quarters. But they were unable to hang on for the cover. The 'under' did connect for the fourth straight game for Gang Green, as they have scored 10, 0, 10 and 9 across the past four games, or an average of 7.3 PPG.