CNOTES 2025-2026 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE + NEWS, NOTES BEST BETS !

[Cnotes53]

CNOTES NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/12/2025......................6 - 7 - 0.........................46.15%....................- 8.50
10/09/2025...............,......0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/06/2025......................0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50

TOTALS........................16 - 15 -- 0.........................51.61%................... - 2.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday’s 6-pack:
Week 7 NFL spreads
— Steelers (-4.5) @ Cincinnati
— Raiders @ Kansas City (-10.5)
— Dolphins @ Cleveland (-1.5)
— Patriots (-6.5) @ Tennessee
— Saints @ Chicago (-6)
— Eagles (-2.5) @ Minnesota

Quote of the Day
“It’s not who you play, it’s when you play them.”
Hall of Fame NFL coach Bud Grant

Monday’s quiz
Who was the football coach at Penn State before James Franklin?
(Hint: He is still a head coach)

Sunday’s quiz
When Jets won their only Super Bowl, they beat the Baltimore Colts, 16-7.

Saturday’s quiz
2008-09 Phillies were the last defending World Series champ that got back to the World Series the next year.

********************************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Sunday…….​

Happy Thanksgiving Day to all our Canadian friends………

Chiefs 30, Lions 17
Chiefs led 13-10 at halftime.
Chiefs in second half: 33 plays, 212 yards, 17 points.
Chiefs are 8-4 ATS last 12 games coming off a loss.
Chiefs are 14-8 ATS last 22 regular season games vs NFC teams.
Lions scored 40.3 points/game in their wins, 13-17 in losses.
Detroit in second half: 22 plays, 112 yards, 7 points.
Chiefs outgained Detroit, 355-297.
Kansas City didn’t have a penalty the whole game.

Buccaneers 30, 49ers 19
Mayfield passed for 256 yards, two TD’s.
Bucs’ first four drives: 14 plays, 44 yards, 7 points.
Bucs rest of game: 37 plays, 290 yards, 23 points.
Only 8 of Tampa Bay’s 50 plays were on 3rd down.
Buccaneers led 20-16 at halftime.
49ers in second half: 29 plays, 97 yards, 3 points, 2 turnovers.
Last five games, SF ran ball for 77-73-83-74-67 yards.
49ers lost star LB Warner for the season (ankle).

Panthers 30, Cowboys 27
Rico Dowdle had 34 touches for 239 yards and a TD.
Carolina is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on the road.
Carolina ran ball for 239/216 yards in last two games.
Panthers allowed 24+ points in five of six games.
Carolina outgained the Cowboys, 410-292.
Dallas allowed 30+ points in four of last five points.
Last four weeks, Dallas allowed 433.6 yards/game.
Cowboys ran the ball 19 times for only 31 yards.

Chargers 29, Dolphins 27
Chargers drove 44 yards, kicked game-winning FG with 0:05 left.
Dolphins had taken 27-26 lead on a TD with 0:46 left.
Miami led 13-9 at halftime.
Chargers in 2nd half: 39 plays, 230 yards, 20 points.
Miami has allowed 29 ppg in its 1-5 start.
Tagovailoa threw for 205 yards, but three INTs.
Miami is 0-5 when it allows more than 21 points.
RB Achane ran ball for 128 yards, two TD’s.

Rams 17, Ravens 3
Rams’ first two drive of 3rd quarter: 11 plays, 97 yards, 14 points.
Rams allowed 9-19-20-3 points in wins, 33-26 in losses.
Rams are 8-1 ATS in last nine games as a road favorite.
Star WR Nucua (ankle) only played six snaps in second half.
Ravens drove 53 yards, kicked FG on their first drive.
Rest of game: 64 plays, 179 yards, no points, 3 turnovers.
Ravens lost their last four games (minus-8 in turnovers)
AFC North teams are 5-12 ATS in non-divisional games.

Colts 31, Cardinals 27
Arizona led 24-17 after the third quarter.
Colts in 4th quarter: 19 plays, 149 yards, 14 points,
Colts are 4-0 at home, scoring 33-29-40-31 points.
Indy scored 29+ points in all five of its wins.
Cardinals lost last four games by total of nine points.
Backup QB Brissett threw for 320 yards, two TD’s.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 11-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Gannon, Arizona is 9-3 ATS vs AFC teams.

— Famous birthdays, October 13th:
Paul Simon, 84
Rich Kotite, 83
Reggie Theus, 68
Doc Rivers, 64
Derek Harper, 64
Jerry Rice, 63
Trevor Hoffman, 58
Quincy Carter, 48
De’Von Achane, 24

Mariners 3, Blue Jays 1
Cal Raleigh homered for the Mariners.
Jorge Polanco knocked in Seattle’s other two runs.
Bryce Miller held Toronto to two hits in 6 IP.
Seattle leads series, 1-0; Game 2 is Monday.

Broncos 13, Jets 11
Jets are 0-6, with four losses by 6 or fewer points.
Jets ran 57 plays in this game, for a TOTAL of 82 yards.
Justin Fields is 14-35 as an NFL starting QB.
Denver drove 65 yards, kicked game-winning FG with 5:06 left.
Jets kicked FG’s on first two drives, both started in Denver territory
Jets rest of game: 51 plays, 85 yards, 3 points,
Denver won its last three games, giving up 3-17-11 points.
Under is 5-1 in Broncos’ games.

Steelers 23, Browns 9
Rodgers threw for 235 yards, two TD’s.
Last 9 years, Pittsburgh is 9-0 SU/7-2 ATS coming off a bye.
Pittsburgh is 15-4 ATS last 19 AFC North home games.
Steelers held Cleveland to 3.3 yards per play.
Browns’ first three drives: 15 plays, 29 yards, three punts.
Cleveland didn’t score a TD; they trailed 9-3 at halftime.
Browns scored 16-17-13-10-17-9 points in their 1-5 start.
Browns are 0-5 SU/ATS last five visits to Pittsburgh.

Patriots 25, Saints 19
NE’s first four drives: 24 plays, 219 yards, 22 points,
Kayshon Boutte caught five passes for 93 yards, two TD’s.
Patriots scored 33-42-23-25 points in wins, 13-14 in losses.
Patriots are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 games as a road favorite.
Saints were 3-9 on third down, Patriots 6-13.
New England held Alvin Kamara to 31 yards on 10 carries.
Saints are 7-14 ATS last 21 games as a home underdog.
Rattler is 1-11 as an NFL starting QB.

Seahawks 20, Jaguars 12
WR Smith-Njigba caught 8 passes for 162 yards and a TD.
Seahawks won four of last five games, scoring 30.4 ppg.
Seattle is 3-0 on road (31-17 Pitt/23-20 Arizona/20-12 Jaguars)
Seahawks have won their last nine road games.
Jaguars were 4-16 on 3rd down, had 10 penalties for 76 yards.
Seahawks are 22-6 in last 28 1:00 kickoffs on East Coast.
Seattle sacked Trevor Lawrence seven times for 44 yards.
Seattle held last five foes to 73 rushing yards/game.

Raiders 20, Titans 10
Raiders led 10-0 at half, snapped a four-game skid.
Titans in first half: 30 plays, 76 yards, four punts, no points.
Last 3+ years, Raiders are 11-4 ATS as a home favorite.
RB Jeanty carried ball 23 times for 75 yards and a TD.
Not much offense: total yards, 226-225 Raiders.
Las Vegas won despite running ball 32 times for only 68 yards.
Titans had three turnovers, were only 3-13 on third down.
Tennessee is 1-5 SU/ATS, losing by 8-14-21-26-10 points.

Packers 27, Bengals 18
Packers ran ball 33 times for 153 yards, outgained Cincy 409-268.
Green Bay won their three home games, 27-13/27-18/27-18.
Green Bay led 10-0 at halftime.
Bengals in first half: 21 yards, 102 yards, no points.
Bengals lost last four games, by 38-25-13-9 points.
Flacco was 29-45/219 passing; he threw 2 TD’s, beat the spread.
Green Bay outgained the Bengals, 409-268.
Green Bay scored 27+ points in four of its five games.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Monday, October 13

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 6

Monday’s games
Bills (–4.5) @ Falcons
Bills (4-1)
Buffalo scored 41-30-31-31 points in its four wins.
Last week, Bills lost 23-20 at home to New England.
Buffalo is 11-7 ATS last 18 games coming off a loss.
QB Allen is 87-41 as an NFL starter.
McDermott is 96-53 as an NFL head coach.


Bills won their only road game, 30-10 at the Jets.
Buffalo is 14-11 ATS last 25 games as a road favorite.
Bills converted 14 of last 30 third down plays.
Buffalo is 10-10-1 ATS in last 21 games vs NFC teams.
AFC East teams are 4-6 ATS in non-divisional games.


Falcons (2-2)
Atlanta is 2-2 despite outgaining foes by 98-128-108-141 yards.
Falcons held first three foes to 260-198-224-294 total yards.
Atlanta scored 22-34 points in its wins, 20-0 in losses.
QB Penix is 3-4 as an NFL starter.
Morris is 31-49 as a head coach.


Under Morris, Atlanta is 2-3 ATS as a home underdog.
Last 15 years, Falcons are 11-4 SU/ATS in post-bye games.
Atlanta is 3-10-2 ATS in last 15 games vs AFC teams.
Last 16 years, Falcons are 11-5 SU/ATS in post-bye games.
NFC South teams are 8-7 ATS in non-divisional games.


Bills won 23-15/23-17 in last two series games.
Underdogs covered four of last five meetings.
Under is 3-1 in last four series games.


Bears @ Commanders (-4.5)
Bears (2-2)
Bears won their last two games, scoring 31-25 points.
In their two wins, Chicago was +7 in turnovers.
Ben Johnson is 2-2 as an NFL head coach.
QB Williams is 7-14 as an NFL starter.


Chicago is 12-21-2 ATS last 35 games as a road underdog.
Last 11 years, Chicago is 1-10 SU/3-8 ATS in games coming off a bye.
Bears gave up 240 yards rushing in their 25-24 win at Las Vegas.
Three of their four games went over the total.
NFC North teams are 7-5 ATS in divisional games.


Commanders (3-2)
Washington is 2-0 at home: 21-6 Giants/41-24 Raiders.
Washington averaged 8.4 yards/pass attempt in LW’s 27-10 win at the Chargers.
Last three games, Commanders scored 41-27-27 points.
QB Daniels is 16-7 as an NFL starter.
Quinn is 63-52 as an NFL coach.


In its wins, Commanders ran ball for 220-201-163 yards.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Opponents converted 15 of last 28 third down plays.
Under Quinn, Commanders are 7-6 ATS in games coming off a win.
NFC East teams are 8-6 ATS in non-divisional games.


Washington won nine of last 11 series games (2-2 last four)
Teams split last four meetings played here.
Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.


Washington interviewed Ben Johnson for their coaching opening in spring of 2024, but he pulled out of the running and stayed as OC of the Lions last year.

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday, October 13​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
BUF at ATL	07:15 PM	ATL +3.5***** U 49.5*****	+500 +500
CHI at WAS	08:15 PM	CHI +5.5***** U 49.5*****	+500 +500

***** BEST BETS

 

[Cnotes53]

CNOTES NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/13/2025......................4 - 0 - 0.......................100.00%....................+ 20.00
10/12/2025......................6 - 7 - 0.........................46.15%....................- 8.50
10/09/2025...............,......0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/06/2025......................0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50

TOTALS........................20 - 15 -- 0.........................57.14%................... + 17.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Week 7 NFL spreads
— Giants @ Denver (-6.5)
— Packers (-6.5) @ Arizona
— Commanders (-2.5) @ Dallas
— Falcons @ San Francisco (-2.5)
— Buccaneers @ Detroit (-5.5)
— Texans @ Seattle (-3.5)

Quote of the Day
“To be honest, it was shocking to me. Andrew Berry must be a lot smarter than me or us because it doesn’t make sense to me to trade a quarterback that you think enough of to make your opening-day starter to a division opponent that’s hurting in that area, but that’s just my personal feelings.”

Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, talking about the Joe Flacco/Browns-Bengals trade

Thursday’s quiz
In the history of the Cincinnati Bengals, who has the most passing yards?

Monday’s quiz
Bill O’Brien was the football coach at Penn State before James Franklin.

Sunday’s quiz
When the Jets won their only Super Bowl, they beat the Baltimore Colts, 16-7.

**************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

Falcons 24, Bills 14
Bijan Robinson ran ball 19 times for 170 yards, with an 81-yard TD.
Atlanta led 21-7 at halftime.
Falcons in first half: 36 plays, 340 yards, 21 points.
Falcons in second half: 31 plays, 118 yards, 3 points.
Bills drove 73 yards for a TD on their first drive.
Bills’ next six drives: 19 plays, 48 yards, no points.
Falcons outgained Buffalo, 443-291.
Buffalo scored 41-30-31-31 points in wins, 20-14 in losses.

Bears 25, Commanders 24
Bears drove 36 yards, kicked game-winning 38-yard FG at the gun.
Chicago was +3 in turnovers, outgained Washington. 381-329.
Bears won their last three games, scoring 31-25-25 points.
In their three wins, Chicago is +10 in turnovers.
Washington turned the ball over twice on their first nine plays.
Chicago led 13-7 at halftime.
Bears outgained Washington, 381-329.
4th quarter of this game was played in the rain.

— Dodgers 2, Brewers 1
Treinen struck out Turang with bases loaded to end the game.
Blake Snell allowed one hit in eight shutout IP.
Freddie Freeman homered, doubled for LA.
Game 2 is Tuesday in Milwaukee.

— Mariners 10, Blue Jays 3
Rodriguez/Polanco both hit 3-run homers.
Josh Naylor went 3-for-4 with two RBI
First two games in this series, Toronto is 1-for-42 from the 3rd inning on.
Game 3 is in Seattle Wednesday.

— Famous birthdays, October 14th:
Art Shamsky, 84
Al Oliver, 79
Charlie Joiner, 78
Ron Wolfley, 63
Keith Byars, 62
Lori Petty, 62
Joe Girardi, 61
Jim Jackson, 55
Frank Wycheck, 54
Merrill Kelly, 37
Jared Goff, 31
Emeka Egbuka, 23

— Penn State fired football coach James Franklin after the Nittany Lions lost three games in a row, the last two as 20-point favorites, but jeez……Franklin was 104-45 at Penn State and was in the College Football Playoff last year.
Franklin gets paid $49.5M to take a hike. Someone really, really wanted him fired.

— Mike Shildt is out as manager of the San Diego Padres; it is unclear whether he jumped or got pushed, though he said the decision was his.
“While it has always been about serving others, it’s time I take care of myself and exit on my terms…….I gave every fiber of my being to help achieve Peter Seidler’s vision of bringing a World Series Championship to San Diego.
We fell short of the ultimate goal, but I am proud of what the players, staff and organization were able to accomplish the last two seasons.”
Shildt had six winning seasons in his six years as a manager; he was 435-340, making it to the playoffs his last five years.

— Tennessee Titans fired coach Brian Callahan Monday; he was 4-19 in 1+ years coaching the Titans. His father Bill was the Titans OL coach; he has also left the team.
Senior offensive assistant Mike McCoy will take over as interim coach. McCoy previously was the head coach of the San Diego Chargers from 2013 to 2016. He had a 27-37 record, making the playoffs in his first season.

— College football conference trends:

American
Favorites 14-5 ATS

ACC
Road teams 14-10 ATS

Big 18
Underdogs 17-11 ATS

Big X
Favorites 17-8 ATS

Conference USA
Home teams 8-3 ATS

Mid-American
Home teams 11-4 ATS

Mountain West
Home teams 6-7 ATS

SEC
Home teams 14-8 ATS

Sun Belt
Home teams 12-4 ATS

— NFL divisional trends:

AFC East
Home teams 1-4 ATS divisional games
7-7 ATS non-divisional games

AFC North
5-12 ATS non-divisional games

AFC South
9-8 ATS non-divisional games

AFC West
5-2 ATS non-divisional home games
3-8 ATS non-divisional road games

NFC East
8-8 ATS non-divisional games

NFC North
8-7 ATS non-divisional games

NFC South
Non-divisional road underdogs 5-3 ATS

NFC West
Home teams 0-4 ATS divisional games
10-6 ATS non-divisional games

— Movie of the Day: The Rewrite (2014)- An Oscar-winning script writer in a slump leaves Hollywood to teach screenwriting at SUNY-Binghamton, where he falls for a single mom taking classes there.
Hugh Grant, Marisa Tomei, JK Simmons, Allison Janney, excellent cast.
This is a nice movie; the world needs more nice.

— Oregon-Rutgers play this week; because college/minor league sports are run now by over-educated morons, these teams are in the same league.
These two schools are 2,909 miles apart; they’re not the only ones. Cal/Stanford in the ACC, Washington in the Big 18, it all makes zero sense.

— Last week in college/minor league, 8 of the top 25 teams lost.

— Rams played in Baltimore Sunday, are playing in London this week; they’re spending this week in Baltimore, and are practicing at the Orioles ballpark, Camden Yards.

— The last four QB’s taken #1 in the NFL Draft had their coaches fired during their rookie year:
2021- Jaguars, Trevor Lawrence/Urban Meyer
2023- Panthers, Bryce Young/Frank Reich
2024- Bears, Caleb Williams/Matt Eberflus
2025- Titans, Cam Ward/Brian Callahan

 

[Udog]

WEEK 7

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 7

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 7

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 16
8:15 PM ET
Pittsburgh VS Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games against Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games against Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road.
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games.
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 9 games at home.

Sunday, October 19
9:30 AM ET
Los Angeles VS Jacksonville
LA Rams is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games.
LA Rams is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games.
LA Rams is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games against Jacksonville.
LA Rams is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games.
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games against LA Rams.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games at home.

1:00 PM ET
Las Vegas VS Kansas City
Las Vegas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Las Vegas' last 12 games.
Las Vegas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
Las Vegas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games against Kansas City.
Kansas City is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games.
Kansas City is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 10 games against Las Vegas.
Kansas City is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games at home.

1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia VS Minnesota
Philadelphia is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games.
Philadelphia is 17-3 SU in its last 20 games.
Philadelphia is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 games against Minnesota.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
Minnesota is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games.
Minnesota is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia.

1:00 PM ET
New England VS Tennessee
New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games.
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
New England is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games against Tennessee.
Tennessee is 3-16 ATS in its last 19 games.
Tennessee is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games.
Tennessee is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against New England.

1:00 PM ET
Miami VS Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games.
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games.
Miami is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against Cleveland.
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games against Cleveland.
Cleveland is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cleveland's last 11 games.
Cleveland is 1-11 SU in its last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home.

1:00 PM ET
Carolina VS New York
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 10 games.
Carolina is 7-13 SU in its last 20 games.
Carolina is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games against NY Jets.
NY Jets is 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of NY Jets' last 13 games.
NY Jets is 0-6 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets' last 6 games against Carolina.

4:05 PM ET
Indianapolis VS Los Angeles
Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis' last 9 games.
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
Indianapolis is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games against LA Chargers.
LA Chargers is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers' last 5 games.
LA Chargers is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers' last 7 games against Indianapolis.

4:05 PM ET
New York VS Denver
NY Giants is 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants' last 7 games.
NY Giants is 3-15 SU in its last 18 games.
NY Giants is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against Denver.
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games.
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games.
Denver is 7-0 SU in its last 7 games at home.

4:25 PM ET
Green Bay VS Arizona
Green Bay is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games.
Green Bay is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games against Arizona.
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road.
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games against Green Bay.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games when playing at home against Green Bay.

Monday, October 20
7:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay VS Detroit
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games.
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
Tampa Bay is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games against Detroit.
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 12 games.
Detroit is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games against Tampa Bay.

10:00 PM ET
Houston VS Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games.
Houston is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games.
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games against Seattle.
Houston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference conference.
Seattle is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
Seattle is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games against Houston.
Seattle is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games at home.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Longest active home win streaks in college football:
15— Alabama, Boise State
12— Indiana
10— Memphis, Miami, Ohio U
9— Arizona State, Georgia Tech
8— Jacksonville State, Ole Miss
6— LSU, Oklahoma. TCU

Quote of the Day
“I don’t mind kids transferring. You just can’t transfer four times, because it’s not good for you. Four schools in four years, you’ll never have a college degree. But that last place you’ll be at, they’ll really be loyal to you? No, you’re a mercenary.”
John Calipari

Wednesday’s quiz
Since 1988, what two pitchers have thrown the most pitches in a playoff game (147)?

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Cincinnati Bengals, Ken Anderson has the most passing yards.

Monday’s quiz
Bill O’Brien was the football coach at Penn State before James Franklin.

***********************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….​

— Dodgers 5, Brewers 1
Yoshinobu Yamamoto threw a complete game (111 PT)
Muncy/Hernandez homered for Los Angeles.
Dodgers’ bullpen got total of three outs in the first two games.
Dodgers lead series 2-0; Game 3 is in Los Angeles Thursday.

— Dodger P Blake Snell has very interesting career numbers:
March/April 7-12, 3.89 in 32 starts
May 6-12, 4.57 in 32 starts
June 11-12, 4.44 in 29 starts
July 13-6, 2.43 in 36 starts
August 23-10, 2.45 in 48 starts
September/October 21-10, 2.15 in 45 starts
Much, much better in second half of the season.

— In the 30 years before Indiana hired Curt Cignetti as its football coach, they averaged 4.1 wins per year. Cignetti is 16-2 at Indiana; he makes $9M a year.
Worth it.

— The world is going nuts, or maybe just daytime TV sucks; I walk into a bar for lunch Tuesday and there is a discussion on TV as whether the Baltimore Ravens should fire John Harbaugh.
Huh????
Harbaugh is 186-120 coaching the Ravens, won a Super Bowl. They’re off to a bad start this year; fire the defensive coordinator and move on. Discussing firing Harbaugh is nonsensical.

— I’m a believer that QB’s/WR’s should get stat credit for yardage they gain on pass interference penalties. Would have to be a separate category, but it would be interesting to see the numbers at the end of a season.

— I’m watching Miami-Atlanta NBA exhibition game the other night; they show the Hawks’ owner Anthony Ressler sitting with his wife and it dawns on me that he is married to actress Jami Gertz, who has 102 acting credits on IMDB.com
She was in the movie Less than Zero with Andrew McCarthy/Robert Downey Jr, a very good but very sad movie. She represented the Hawks at the NBA Draft Lottery twice. The Resslers have been married since 1989.

— Famous birthdays, October 15th:
Jim Palmer, 80
Joe Klecko, 72
Mark Wade, 60
Vanessa Marcil, 57
Fred Hoiberg, 53
Connor Barwin, 39
Blaine Gabbert, 36
Teoscar Hernandez, 33
Jack Flaherty, 30
Brandon Pfaadt, 27

— Liberty 30, New Mexico State 27
Liberty led 20-6 at halftime, held on for dear life.
New Mexico State missed a 47-yard FG on the last play.
Aggies outgained Liberty, 388-293, but had three turnovers.

— Florida International 25, Western Kentucky 6
Panthers kicked four field goals, led 19-6 at halftime.
FIU ran ball 39 times for 249 yards.
FIU had lost its previous five games vs Western Kentucky.

— Arkansas State 15, South Alabama 14
Red Wolves kicked a 38-yard FG at the gun for a walk-off win.
1-6 South Alabama led 14-3 after three quarters.
Arkansas State outgained the Jaguars, 367-293

— Last five baseball players to play for five teams in one season:
2018- Oliver Drake- Indians, Angels, Brewers, Twins, Blue Jays
2024- Mike Baumann- Orioles, Angels, Marlins, Mariners, Giants
2025- Jose Urena- Angels, Dodgers, Twins, Mets, Blue Jays

— Steve Weinman, who spent 13 years in the Chicago Bulls’ front office, has been hired by Wake Forest to be the general manager for the Deacons’ men’s/women’s basketball teams.
He’ll work closely with the head coaches on “roster construction, recruiting strategy, transfer portal evaluation, resource allocation and planning”.

— Air Force Falcons are only college football team that has gone over the total in every game they’ve played (6-0) this season.

— RIP to Sandy Alomar Sr, who passed away at age 81; he played 15 years in the big leagues for six different teams, mostly the Angels. He has two sons who played in the minor leagues, Sandy Alomar Jr and Roberto Alomar.
Sandy Alomar Jr had 1,168 career hits; he made the All-Star Game in 1970.
RIP, sir.

 

[Cnotes53]

Upset alert in NFL Week 7? Why these five favorites could fall, including Jared Goff and the Lions​

These favorites could end up as outright losers if they are not careful​

Hard to believe, but we're already in the middle of October and on the doorstep of Week 7 in the NFL. This is the period where teams start to separate from one another and either prove that they are a playoff threat or are building toward 2026 if they fall by the wayside.

Through the first chunk of the year, upsets have been a common theme, including in Week 6. There, we accurately predicted that the Seahawks would upset the Jaguars on the road. Meanwhile, Monday night saw a pair of upsets with the Falcons taking down the Bills and the Bears outlasting the Commanders.

Where will the upsets come in Week 7? Let's try and sift through all the madness and identify a handful of favorites that could be ripe for an upset.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-5.5)​

• When: Monday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: Ford Field (Detroit)
• TV: ESPN | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Buccaneers ML odds: +198

When healthy, both of these teams are among the biggest threats in the NFC. The problem is that they continue to be battling injuries at key areas of the roster. For the Lions, their depleted secondary was exposed against Kansas City in Week 6, and will not have star defensive back Brian Branch for this game after he was suspended for starting a fight at the end of that contest. That only further pushes them behind the eight-ball at stopping the pass. Meanwhile, the Bucs wide receiver group is also dinged up, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Emeka Egbuka all questionable. However, even if one of them suits up in Week 7, that could be enough for Baker Mayfield to have similar results that Patrick Mahomes had a week ago. Speaking of Mayfield, his 12 upset wins since joining the Buccaneers are the most in the NFL (since 2023).

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings​

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minnesota)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Vikings ML odds: +114

The Eagles look lost at the moment. While a lot of the attention is being paid to the offensive side of the ball, let's not ignore the defense either. Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo of the New York Giants lit them up for 34 points in Week 6. Now, they are expected to fend off a Vikings offense headlined by Justin Jefferson after resting up on the bye the week prior? Okay, let's talk about the Eagles offense. As a team, they are being outscored 52-17 over the last five quarters, and rank 30th in the NFL in yards per game (274.5) on the season. This is hardly a get-right spot for the unit as they will face a Vikings defense that ranks fifth in the NFL in points per game (19.4), sixth in yards per game (289.8), and second on third down (30% conversion rate). Minnesota is also 4-1 as an underdog since the start of last season, which includes a 2-0 record as a home dog.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5)​

• When: 8:20 p.m. ET | Where: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara)
• TV: NBC | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Falcons ML odds: +110

The hits keep coming to the 49ers on the defensive side of the ball. The latest devastating injury comes with Fred Warner, who is out for the season due to an ankle injury he suffered last week. Warner is a first-team All-Pro talent, so this is a monumental loss for a Niners team that can't afford to lose many bodies on that side of the ball. That ailing unit now faces a Falcons offense that has explosive playmakers like Drake London and Bijan Robinson at their disposal to help exploit their deficiencies. Atlanta is fresh off an upset win over Buffalo, and has done well in this spot. The Falcons have won four of their last five prime-time games, including a 2-0 record this season. Meanwhile, the Niners are 3-6 in their last nine games at home.

Carolina Panthers (-1.5) at New York Jets​

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Jets ML odds: +108

The Jets actually opened as the favorite in this matchup, but the odds have swung entirely in the opposite direction. It's hard to blame bettors after seeing New York's offense founder in London in Week 6, but let's not entirely rule out the possibility of the Jets notching their first win here. While it was masked due to poor play from the offense, the Jets defense and special teams units were solid against the Broncos and had them in range of an upset. That defense now faces a Panthers offense that is a wildly different team on the road than they are at home. This season, Carolina is 0-3 on the road and is averaging 15 points per game on offense while the defense is surrendering 31.7 points per game. If those trends continue, the Jets may not need Justin Fields to throw it around the yard in order to win.

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns (-3)​

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Dolphins ML odds: +134

The Dolphins feel like they are teetering. They are 1-5, and Tua Tagovailoa just called out the leadership on his team after last week's defeat against the Los Angeles Chargers. Their defense has also struggled mightily, allowing 29.0 points per game this season. So, why are we identifying them as a possible upset candidate? The Browns offense continues to be middling even after the switch to Dillon Gabriel at quarterback. Over the last two weeks, Gabriel's completion percentage (57%) and yards per attempt (4.8) are last in the NFL. If that continues, this will be a tight enough game where one or two throws from Tagovailoa could be enough to pull away. This is the first game Cleveland is favored this season, after going 0-4 as a favorite in 2024.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL Week 7 picks and score predictions: Bengals shock Steelers, Rams top Jaguars in London​

Here's your weekly dose of John Breech's NFL picks​

It took 105 years, but the NFL has finally done it: It has reached total parity. No one is good this year. No one is bad, and except for the Jets, any team can beat any other team. The league is completely unpredictable.

I spent five hours last night trying to figure out who's actually good and I came to the conclusion that the Colts might be the only good team in the NFL. The Packers lost to the Browns, so they're out. The Bills have no receiving weapons, so they're out. I'd include the Buccaneers, but they always seem to be playing from behind and although they're 5-1 right now, playing from behind every week doesn't seem like a long-term strategy for winning. I'd also give you the Lions, but any team that has already lost two of their first six games by double digits can't be on my "good" list.

I think I could throw in two of the three teams at the top of the NFC West, but not all three. I want to leave out the 49ers due to their injuries, but i can't because they beat the other two 4-2 teams (Rams and Seahawks). In conclusion, the Colts are good and then you can toss in whichever two NFC West teams you want to throw in there with them.

You know who's not good? The AFC North. The Browns, Ravens and Bengals have combined to go 0-10 since Sept. 22. That's zero wins over three weeks. The Steelers might be able to clinch the division this week.

In the NFC, the Eagles haven't won a single game in the month of October and they still somehow have a one-game lead for first place in their division. Like I said, everyone is average.

Speaking of average, let's get to my picks.

NFL Week 7 picks​

Pittsburgh (4-1) at Cincinnati (2-4)​

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

It has now been one week since the Bengals traded for Joe Flacco, and I have to say, there is no one more upset about the trade than Mike Tomlin. The Steelers coach was asked about the deal on Monday and he gave a very interesting answer.

"It was shocking to me," Tomlin said. "[Browns general manager] Andrew Berry must be a lot smarter than me, because it doesn't make sense to me to trade a quarterback -- that you think enough of to make your opening starter -- to a division opponent that's hurting in that area."

To me, there are two key components to this comment:

1. Tomlin is making sure the Browns know that they made a dumb trade. There was no reason to help a division rival, but the Browns did it anyway because they're the Browns. Nothing they do makes sense.
2. Tomlin would much rather be facing Jake Browning. That doesn't mean he's worried about Joe Flacco, it just means that he knows his team probably would have won by five touchdowns if Browning was the starting QB for the Bengals.

Instead, the Steelers are getting Flacco, who gives the Bengals a puncher's chance of pulling off an upset. As a matter of fact, Flacco is probably the last quarterback that Tomlin wanted to see this week. For one, Flacco has beaten Tomlin's Steelers 11 times in his career, including a game that came last season while he was playing for the Colts, so I have to think that there aren't many quarterbacks in the NFL who know Tomlin's defense better than Flacco.

The 40-year-old had exactly four days to prepare for the Packers in Week 6 and he still managed to throw for 219 yards with two touchdowns. Now, he gets a few more days to prepare and he gets to face a Steelers defense that's surrendered the sixth-most passing yards per game this year (245.0).

And let's not forget, this is a Thursday game, which is the one spot in Tomlin's career where his team always seems to struggle. Since the start of the 2019 season, the Steelers are 1-5 on Thursday night and the only win came by four points. In that same span, AFC North teams are 13-3 when hosting another AFC North team in a primetime game. Advantage: Bengals.

This game is giving us the two oldest quarterbacks in the NFL starting against each other on short rest. It's hard enough for a 40-year-old man to get out of bed three days after mowing the lawn, but Aaron Rodgers (41) and Joe Flacco (40) will have to play an actual football game and I'm not sure if they're going to survive. (By they way, if you're wondering whether two 40 year olds have ever faced each other before, the answer is yes: Tom Brady faced Drew Brees three times, but that's it).

The Bengals will be going with their white tiger helmet and I can never pick against the white tiger helmet, so I'll say the Bengals pull off the upset.

PICK: Bengals 23-20 over Steelers | Bengals +5.5 |

L.A. Rams (4-2) vs. Jacksonville (4-2) in London​

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, Fubo, try for free)

I'd like to start things here by apologizing to the people of London on behalf of the NFL: We are sorry for sending you so many bad teams (I'm not sure if I'm allowed to speak on behalf of the NFL, but I'm going to do it anyway).

During the 18-year history of the International Series, the NFL has sent so many bad teams over to London that I was 65% sure that England was going to declare war on us at some point. Since 2007, there have been a total of 41 NFL games played in London and this game will mark just the SECOND TIME that both teams had a winning record going into the game.

This year alone, fans in London had to sit through the Browns in Week 5 and then the Jets in Week 6. The only upside is that they didn't have to watch the Browns face the Jets. Now, they're getting a possible Super Bowl preview. OK, that might be an exaggeration, but I just want to make sure everyone in London appreciates this game since, at the rate thing are going, they might get another game between two teams with a winning record until 2043.

The Jaguars have been one of the biggest surprises this year and one reason they've been winning games is because they've forced more turnovers than any other team in the league. Although the defense has thrived in the turnover department, one thing they haven't fixed is their secondary. Last season, the Jags gave up the most passing yards in the NFL, and this year, things aren't much better. Heading into Week 7, the Jags are surrendering 256.3 passing yards per game, which is the third-most in the NFL.

If your defense can't stop the pass, the last person you want to be facing is Matthew Stafford. The Rams' quarterback leads the NFL in passing yards, but that might not mean as much in this game since his favorite target (Puka Nacua) likely won't be playing. If Nacua was healthy, I'd probably take the Rams by double digits, but he's not, so I see this game going down to the wire.

London games are unpredictable, especially when they involve the Jaguars, but I think the Rams are just the better team. And to be honest, the Rams kind of need to win this game as a thank you to every fan in Los Angeles who will be waking up at 6:30 a.m. PT to watch.

PICK: Rams 27-24 over Jaguars | Rams -3

Carolina (3-3) at N.Y. Jets (0-6)​

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo, try for free)

I don't think the oddsmakers have watched a single minute of Jets' football this year because New York somehow opened as the favorite in this game. However, that quickly changed on Tuesday morning and I'm guessing that happened because everyone in America with access to a legalized gambling account probably logged on and bet everything they own on the Panthers.

If you want a quick update on the Jets' season, let me give it to you: They have zero wins and the last time we saw them on the field, they finished with negative passing yards. It's almost impossible to finish an NFL game with negative passing yards, but the Jets somehow managed to do it with -10 against the Broncos on Sunday. If you're wondering how that happened, you take the quarterback's passing yards and subtract any yards the team lost to sacks and that's the team passing total. Justin Fields threw for 45 yards, but lost 55 yards to sacks, and that's how you get -10.

Over the past 45 years, there have only been six quarterbacks involved in a game where a team finished with -10 passing yards or less. Let's check out the list:

1980: Cardinals QB Rusty Lisch (-12)
1981: Bears QB Vince Evans (-20)
1985: Falcons QB David Archer (-22)
1987: Bengals QB Dave Walter (-13)
1998: Charger QB Ryan Leaf (-19)
2025: Jets QB Justin Fields (-10)

If you want to stump everyone you know with some football trivia this weekend, ask them to give you just TWO names off this list besides Fields. I'll admit, there's a 50% chance they might guess Ryan Leaf, but there's a zero percent chance they will name anyone else. Rusty Lisch isn't even a real name, I just made that up to see if you were paying attention. Just kidding, he's real. And I only know that because Notre Dame benched him for Joe Montana in 1977, which ended up working out well for Notre Dame.

The point here is that if you finish with negative passing yards, that's usually a sign that it might be time to blow things up and start over on offense, but the Jets don't have time to do that this week, so they're going to be rolling out the same offense against Carolina.

The Jets will also be rolling out the same defense, which actually might be the bigger problem. The Jets have surrendered 130 yards per game on the ground this year, and this week, they have to face the hottest running back in the NFL: Rico Dowdle. There are only two games in the ENTIRE NFL this year where a player has rushed for more than 175 yards and Dowdle has BOTH of them, and they both came in the past two weeks.

I don't know how it happened, but Rico Dowdle suddenly morphed into the best running back in the NFL. There is one thing that's kind of scaring me away from picking the Panthers and that's the fact that they're 0-3 on the road this year and they've been outscored by an average of 16.7 points in those games. On the flip side, the Jets are 0-3 at MetLife and they've been outscored 101-64 in those games. I'm starting to think that there's a 50% chance this game ends in a tie.

PICK: Panthers 20-16 over Jets | Panthers -1.5

New England (4-2) at Tennessee (1-5)​

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

This might be my favorite game of Week 7: We have the Titans old coach (Mike Vrabel) going up against the Titans' interim coach (Mike McCoy) because the guy who was hired to replace Vrabel (Brian Callahan) only lasted 23 games before being fired on Monday. Maybe the Titans should have just kept Vrabel.

I'm not sure what the biggest loss is in Titans' history, but I have to think that Vrabel is going to want to top it when he makes his return to Tennessee in this game. Vrabel spent six years as the coach of the Titans and although he never had a franchise quarterback, he still managed to lead them to the playoffs four times and that includes a 2021 season when the Titans finished with the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC.

I'm not sure if the entire AFC had a post-COVID hangover or what, but Vrabel's Titans got the top seed over the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, the Ravens with Lamar Jackson, the Bills with Josh Allen and the Bengals with Joe Burrow. With Ryan Tannehill as his quarterback, Vrabel coached the Titans to the TOP SEED IN THE AFC (I can't emphasize this enough). Honestly, the NFL should have invented a coach of the millennium award on the spot in 2021 and given it him that year.

Two years later, the Titans decided to fire him and the organization has been falling apart ever since. Last year, they went 4-13 in their first season without Vrabel, and this year, things aren't going much better. They have the worst offense in the NFL: The Titans rank dead last in yards per game (232.3) and second-to-last in points per game (13.8).

The defense has been hanging on by a thread, but when you're stuck on the field for nearly 33 minutes ever game, it's hard to be good. On the other hand, Vrabel is building a powerhouse in New England and the foundation of that house is Drake Maye. He's been one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the NFL this year and he's only getting better every week.

Remember that list that Justin Fields was on in my Panthers-Jets pick? Well this is the opposite of that. These are names that everyone has heard of. Being on this list is impressive.

I think Maye is going t have a big game and the Patriots are going to roll. And just for the record, I went ahead and looked up and the worst loss in Titans' history, and fittingly, it actually against the Patriots: New England beat them 59-0 back in 2009.

I do like the Patriots in this game, but not by 59 points.

PICK: Patriots 34-13 over Titans | Patriots -7

Indianapolis (5-1) at L.A. Chargers (4-2)​

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

For the second time in three weeks, the Colts are headed out to southern California. If you're scoring at home, the Colts are 0-1 when playing in Los Angeles this year and 5-0 when playing anywhere else. The Colts lost to the Rams back in Week 4, but that only happened because Adonai Mitchell forgot the rules of football.

If the Colts are going to win this game, they need to do three things:

1. Don't fumble the ball out of the back of the end zone
2. Make sure everyone makes it safely through pregame warm-ups (For most teams, this isn't an issue, but for the Colts, it apparently is).
3. Don't let Justin Herbert throw for 600 yards.

The Colts have been the most surprising team in the NFL this year, but if they have one weakness, it's their ability to stop the pass. In Week 6, Jacoby Brissett, who had not started a game in over a year, went out and threw for 320 yards on the Colts. It was Brissett's first 300-yard passing game since November 2022. If Brissett can top 300 passing yards on the Colts, then anyone can.

Of course, even if Justin Herbert does go off, the Colts have an offense that can keep up in a shootout and I'm fully expecting a shootout. I'm 6-0 picking Colts games this year and I'm putting it all on the line by taking Indiana Jones in his return to L.A.

If the Colts lose, I will be taking them off my "good" list and replacing them with the Chargers.

PICK: Colts 34-27 over Chargers | Colts +1.5 |

NFL Week 7 picks: All the rest​

Bears 24-16 over Saints
Browns 20-17 over Dolphins
Chiefs 31-20 over Raiders
Eagles 23-16 over Vikings
Broncos 19-16 over Giants
Commanders 38-31 over Cowboys
Packers 27-17 over Cardinals
Falcons 24-20 over 49ers
Lions 30-23 over Buccaneers
Seahawks 27-23 over Texans

BYES: Ravens, Bills

Last Week ​

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Steelers would score exactly 23 points and beat the Browns and guess what happened? The Steelers scored exactly 23 points and beat the Browns. If I've learned anything from watching the NFL for all these years, it's that if the Browns are playing in Pittsburgh, they are guaranteed to lose. As a matter of fact, the Browns have now lost 22 straight regular-season games in Pittsburgh: They haven't gone on the road to beat the Steelers since 2003. That's right, the last time the Browns won in Pittsburgh, the iPhone didn't exist, YouTube hadn't been invented yet and people were still printing out directions on MapQuest. I miss MapQuest.

Worst pick: If there's one rule you should always follow when making NFL picks, it's this: Never pick the against the Chiefs in a home primetime game if they're coming off a loss. I broke that rule in Week 6 and I paid dearly for it. After the Chiefs lost to the Jaguars in Week 5, I assumed it was all over for the them. I thought the Lions would go into Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night and drive a stake through the heart of Kansas City's dynasty with a win. I thought Patrick Mahomes would retire and that we would never hear from him again, but I was wrong. Instead, the Chiefs won so handily that I might have now convinced myself that they're the best team in the AFC. I'm going to go ahead and add them to my "Good" list.

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we've got six full weeks of information. Here's a quick look at my best teams when it comes to picks this year.

Teams I'm 6-0 picking this year (Straight up): Colts
Teams I'm 5-1 picking this year (Straight up): Jets, Bengals, Titans, Raiders, Broncos, Saints, Cardinals, Steelers (4-1), Texans (4-1)

Picks Record​

Straight up in Week 6: 9-6
SU overall: 58-34-1

Against the spread in Week 6: 6-9
ATS overall: 41-52

 

[Cnotes53]

2025 NFL
Week 7
Thursday’s game
Steelers (–5.5) @ Bengals
Steelers (4-1)
Steelers scored 34-21-24-23 points in wins, 17 in their loss.
Last week (248) was first game they allowed less than 369 TY.
Pittsburgh is +6 in turnovers in its last three games.
QB Rodgers is 168-98-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 195-119-2 as an NFL head coach.

Steelers are 9-6 ATS last 15 AFC North road games.
Pittsburgh is 5-4 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
Pittsburgh is 17-10-1 ATS last 28 games coming off a win.
Steelers allowed 32-31 points first two games, 14-21-9 in last three.
Pittsburgh’s last two opponents were 10-31 on third down

Bengals (2-4)
Bengals lost last three games, by 38-25-13-9 points.
Bengals acquired QB Flacco Tuesday; he is starting.
Bengals have run ball for only 56.7 yards/game.
Flacco is 116-96 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 53-58-1 as a head coach.

Cincinnati is minus-4 in turnovers this season.
Cincinnati converted 15 of last 48 third down plays.
Bengals are 9-6-1 ATS last 15 games as road underdogs (1-2 TY).
Bengals are 23-15-1 ATS last 39 coming off a loss.
Cincinnati is 10-8 ATS in last 18 AFC North home games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
College football spreads this week:
— Baylor @ TCU (-4)
— Ole Miss @ Georgia (-6)
— Texas A&M (-8) @ Arkansas
— Utah (-2) @ BYU
— USC @ Notre Dame (-9)
— Tennessee @ Alabama (-8)

Quote of the Day
“I’ve got to look at myself as the leader protecting the team. I don’t feel like I did that to the best of my abilities. I felt like I let the emotions of the game get to me after the game. And that’s something that I can learn from as a leader on this team and what happens in-house should be protected and none of that should have gotten out.”
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa

Thursday’s quiz
Where did Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert play his college football?

Wednesday’s quiz
Since 1988, David Cone/Curt Schilling have thrown the most pitches in a playoff game (147).

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the Cincinnati Bengals, Ken Anderson has the most passing yards.

*****************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….​

— Blue Jays 13, Mariners 4
Vladimir Guerrero was 4-for-4 with a home run.
Toronto hit five homers; they had 18 hits overall.
Road team has won all three series games; Seattle leads, 2-1
Game 4 is Thursday in Seattle.

— Jacksonville State 38, Delaware 25
Cam Cook ran ball for 117 yards, three TD’s.
Gamecocks led 20-6 at halftime.
Delaware threw ball for 422 yards, but was minus-2 in turnovers.

— Texas-El Paso 35, Sam Houston State 17
Skyler Locklear threw for 236 yards, 2 TDs; ran ball for 48 yards, 2 more TD’s
Miners led 14-10 at halftime.
UTEP ran ball 34 times for 175 yards (5.1 yards/carry)

— NHL’s New York Rangers are first NHL team ever to get shut out in their first three home games of a season.

— Famous birthdays, October 16th:
Mel Counts, 84
Timothy Robbins, 67
Kevin McReynolds, 66
Adrian Murrell, 55
Kordell Stewart, 53
Bryce Harper, 33
John Wolford, 30
Steve Avila, 26
Noelvi Marte, 24

— When Gonzaga visits San Francisco this year, the game will be at the Chase Center, home of the Golden State Warriors, for the third year in a row. Gonzaga draws fans, and bigger arena makes USF a lot more money than playing in their campus gym would.

— In the history of the baseball playoffs, there have been 25 teams who hit two 3-run homers in the same game (or a 3-run and grand slam); all 25 of those teams won.

— Russell Westbrook signed on with the Sacramento Kings; this will be his 18th year in the NBA, the Kings are his 7th NBA team:
2008-19- Oklahoma City
2019-20- Houston
2020-21- Washington
2021-23- Lakers
2023-24- Clippers
2024-25- Nuggets
2025-26- Kings
In his career, Westbrook has earned $348,234,946 in salary.

— Some NBA over/under win totals for the coming season:
Thunder 62.5
Cavaliers 56.5
Nuggets 53.5
Rockets 52.5
Celtics 40.5
Bulls 32.5
Wizards 21.5
Jazz 18.5

— Angels/Orioles seem to be competing to hire Albert Pujols as their next manager; Orioles went 60-59 this season under interim manager Tony Mansolino, after they fired Brandon Hyde.
Last year, Pujols won a championship with Leones del Escogido of the Dominican Winter League; it was the first time he had managed. He is supposed to manage the Dominican Republic in next spring’s World Baseball Classic.

— Sacramento Kings signed Keegan Murray to a five-year, $140M rookie contract extension that will keep him in Sacramento through the 2030-31 season.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Thursday, October 16

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 7

Thursday’s game
Steelers (–5.5) @ Bengals
Steelers (4-1)
Steelers scored 34-21-24-23 points in wins, 17 in their loss.
Last week (248) was first game they allowed less than 369 TY.
Pittsburgh is +6 in turnovers in its last three games.
QB Rodgers is 168-98-1 as an NFL QB
Tomlin is 195-119-2 as an NFL head coach.


Steelers are 9-6 ATS last 15 AFC North road games.
Pittsburgh is 5-4 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
Pittsburgh is 17-10-1 ATS last 28 games coming off a win.
Steelers allowed 32-31 points first two games, 14-21-9 in last three.
Pittsburgh’s last two opponents were 10-31 on third down


Bengals (2-4)
Bengals lost last three games, by 38-25-13-9 points.
Bengals acquired QB Flacco Tuesday; he is starting.
Bengals have run ball for only 56.7 yards/game.
Flacco is 116-96 as an NFL starter.
Taylor is 53-58-1 as a head coach.


Cincinnati is minus-4 in turnovers this season.
Cincinnati converted 15 of last 48 third down plays.
Bengals are 9-6-1 ATS last 15 games as road underdogs (1-2 TY).
Bengals are 23-15-1 ATS last 39 coming off a loss.
Cincinnati is 10-8 ATS in last 18 AFC North home games.


Pittsburgh won four of last five series games.
Underdogs covered five of last six meetings.
Steelers won/covered their last three visits to Cincinnati.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday, October 16​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
PIT at CIN	08:15 PM	CIN +5.5 U 45.0	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

CNOTES NFL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/16/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50
10/12/2025......................6 - 7 - 0.........................46.15%....................- 8.50
10/09/2025...............,......0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/06/2025......................0 - 2 - 0.........................00.00%....................- 11.00
10/05/2025......................9 - 3 - 0.........................75.00%....................+ 28.50
10/02/2025......................1 - 1 - 0.........................50.00%....................- 0.50

TOTALS........................17 - 16 -- 0.........................51.51%................... - 3.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
— Bengals 33, Steelers 31- Bengals kicked a 36-yard FG with 0:07 left.
— Dodgers 3, Brewers 1- Milwaukee has scored 3 runs in series; they trail, 3-0.
— Blue Jays 8, Mariners 2- SS Gimenez had 4 RBI; series is 2-2.
— East Carolina 41, Tulsa 27- Houser passed for 300 yards, 2 TD’s.
— Milwaukee Bucks signed AJ Green to a 4-year, $45M deal.
— Indiana football coach Curt Cignetti signed an 8-year, $93M deal to stay with the Hoosiers.

Quote of the Day
“I want to help 25 to 30 more families. The only way you do that is you’re transformational as a coach. You’re not transactional. If I become transactional — I’m going to pay you this to do this and that — then I won’t do this anymore. I don’t need to.”
Arkansas hoop coach John Calipari

Friday’s quiz
Toronto Blue Jays won consecutive World Series in 1992-93; who was their manager?

Thursday’s quiz
Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert played his college football at Oregon.

Wednesday’s quiz
Since 1988, David Cone/Curt Schilling have thrown the most pitches in a playoff game (147).

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Friday’s Den: Getting ready for college basketball…….​

Things to think about, with college/minor league basketball around the corner…….
— This will sound weird, but Sacramento State is going to be fascinating to follow this year; the Hornets haven’t had a winning season in Big Sky games since 2015, they’re on their fifth head coach in six years, but they’re going to be fun to watch this season.
The new coach is Mike Bibby, who played 14 years in the NBA, scoring 14.7 ppg; one of his new players is 6-8 F Shaqir O’Neal, whose father is Shaquille O’Neal.
Shaquille O’Neal is the new general manager for Sacramento State, which means we’re going to be seeing some Big Sky games on TV this season. Shaq is good at generating publicity.
Mikey Williams is a Hornet now; he was a big prospect a couple years ago, ran into some issues off the court, but he’s in Sacramento now, and is a key to Sacramento State’s season.

— Next year will be a dizzying year, with more teams changing leagues. There are a few teams changing leagues this year, but not that many.
Grand Canyon moves from the WAC to the Mountain West; Antelopes won 103 games the last four years, have been in four of last five NCAA Tournaments. Last year, Grand Canyon had the #29 eFG% in the country; they got 24% of their points on the foul line (#9 in country). Will they still get as many calls in their new, tougher league?
WAC was the #15 league last year; Mountain West was #6.

— Seattle is also bolting the WAC, which only has seven teams left; Redhawks are moving to the WCC, which won’t look the same at this time next year, with Gonzaga bolting to the Mountain West.
Seattle was 23-14 two years ago, but 14-18 last year; they were a terrible shooting team last year (#334 eFG%). Last four years, Redhawks were 44-28 in the WAC and they’ve got three starters back, but they need to make more shots.
WAC was the #15 league last year; WCC was #7 league.

— UMass bolted from the Atlantic 15 to the MAC, a huge help to their basketball program; MAC was the #23 league LY, A-15 was the #8 league— the move was football-based, but it should make life simpler on the hardwood.
UMass is 47-47 in three years under Frank Martin, was 24-30 in A-15 games. Minutemen have not been in the NCAA’s since 2014- they’ve brought in 10 new players after last year’s 12-20 season, when they shot 28% on the arc, 2nd-worst in the country.

— Two teams bolted to Conference USA, for football reasons…….
Delaware was in the NCAA’s in 2022, going 22-13, but they went 23-31 in CAA games since then.
Blue Hens were 16-20 LY, 5-13 in CAA, but they won four games in the CAA tourney and lost in the final, 76-72 to NC-Wilmington, playing for the fifth night in a row.
Delaware was #324 in defensive efficiency LY; CAA was #20 league last year, C-USA was #9, so this is a step up for the Blue Hens.

— Missouri State bolts to C-USA from the Missouri Valley, the #10 league; Bears were 9-23/2-19 last year, a dismal team that turned the ball over 20.7% of the time (#346).
Missouri State has had some good teams recently, but they haven’t been to the NCAA’s since Steve Alford led them there, in 1999. They’ve had seven 20-win seasons since then, but haven’t made it back to March Madness.

— Famous birthdays, October 17
Michael McKean, 78
Mike Bratz, 70
Dan Pasqua, 64
Jay Humphries, 63
Danny Ferry, 59
John Mabry, 55
Myles Straw, 31

— SEC had 14 of its 16 teams in the NCAA’s last year, which seems excessive; Florida was the first SEC team to win a national title since Kentucky in 2012.
Texas/Oklahoma both went 6-12 in SEC games, tied for 13th; if you finish tied for 13th in your league, you shouldn’t make the NCAA’s.

— Kentucky’s NIL budget/payroll is $22M this season; consensus is that nationally, top 10 teams have an average payroll of $10M or so. High expectations for coach Mark Pope.
Wildcats were 24-12 LY, making their first Sweet 16 since 2019; teams shot 53.9% inside the arc vs Kentucky (#295). Hopefully they spent some of that $22M on big guys who can defend.

— Auburn was 32-6, 15-3 in SEC, made the Final Four for the second time in seven years under Bruce Pearl, but last month, Pearl abruptly quit, so his son Steven could take his place. Bruce Pearl is going into the TV studio this season.
Auburn will play six top 40 teams before Christmas, as they prepare for the rigors on of SEC play, which worked for them LY, when they played the #19 non-conference schedule.

— Last five years, the ACC ranked #5-5-7-5-5 nationally, a downturn from 2014-19, when the ACC was a top 3 league every year. Only four ACC teams made the NCAA’s LY, but couple of new coaches figure to re-vitalize their programs.
Will Wade went 58-11 at McNeese State, made the NCAA’s five of six years before that at LSU, VCU. In the NIL era, Wade seems like a good man for the job.
Ryan Odom is the new coach at Virginia; his teams at VCU/Utah State were 78-30 the last three years. In 2018, he coached #16-seed UMBC to the first #16-seed over #1-seed upset in, when his Retrievers upset………Virginia.

— Four of the top 11 teams in the preseason top 25 are from the Big 18, a league that hasn’t won a national title since Michigan State in 2000.

— BYU signed AJ Dybantsa, the best recruit in the country; Cougars also bring back last year’s leading scorer, Richie Saunders- they’ve added four guards in the transfer portal.
Last year, BYU had the #7 eFG% in the country; 47.6% of their shots were 3’s- they made 36.8% of those. Cougars went 26-10, winning their first NCAA Tournament game since 2011.

— Last five years, Cal-Irvine went 68-23 in Big West games, but was 4-5 in their conference tournament- they surprisingly haven’t been to the NCAA’s since 2019.
Last year, Anteaters were 32-7; they lost the NIT final in overtime. This year, they get G Derin Saran back; he went to Stanford LY, but it didn’t work out well, so he is back in Irvine, where hopefully the Anteaters will fare better in the conference tournament.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Six highest-paid major leaguers in 1985, 40 years ago:
$2,130,000— Mike Schmidt, Phil
$2,090,000— Jim Rice, Bos
$1,950,000— George Foster, Mets
$1,745,000— Dave Winfield, NYY
$1,728,000— Gary Carter, Mets
$1,600,000— Dale Murphy, Atl

Quote of the Day
“We still have home-field advantage. All we can do is enjoy the flight back to Toronto, enjoy our beds at our homes and our families, and we’re going to get after it on Sunday. … We’ll get after it on Sunday. We’ll be ready to play.”
Blue Jays manager John Schneider

Saturday’s quiz
Which bowl game is played in El Paso, TX every December?

Friday’s quiz
Toronto Blue Jays won consecutive World Series in 1992-93; Cito Gaston was their manager.

Thursday’s quiz
Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert played his college football at Oregon.

**********************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a fall Friday…….​

— Mariners 6, Blue Jays 2
Eugenio Suarez hit a grand slam in the bottom of the 8th
Cal Raleigh also homered in 8th to tie game, 2-2.
Mariners took their starting P out after only 56 PT
Seattle leads series, 3-2; Game 6 is in Toronto Sunday.

— Dodgers 5, Brewers 1
Ohtani threw six shutout IP, also hit three home runs.
Milwaukee had five hits, was 0-8 with RISP.
Dodgers sweep Milwaukee 4-0; Brewers scored one run in every game.

— Bengals 33, Steelers 31
Bengals drove 52 yards, kicked 36-yard FG with 0:07 left for the win.
Flacco threw for 342 yards, three TD’s
WR Chase had 23 targets; he caught 16 passes for 161 yards.
Bengals were 7-14 on third down, Pittsburgh 7-10.
Bengals’ first two drives: 13 plays, 53 yards, two punts.
Bengals rest of game: 63 plays, 416 yards, 33 points.
Steelers led 10-0 early in second quarter.
Pittsburgh has allowed 369+ yards in five of six games.

— Louisville 24, Miami 21
Louisville had four INT’s, was +3 in turnovers.
Louisville led 14-10 at halftime.
Miami ran the ball 24 times for only 63 yards.
Cardinals were a 10.5-point underdog.

— Minnesota 24, Nebraska 6
Minnesota outscored Nebraska 17-0 in second half.
Gophers sacked Nebraska’s QB nine times.
Gophers outgained the Cornhuskers, 339-213.
Both teams are 5-2.

— Utah State 30, San Jose State 25
Utah State kicked 44-yard FG with 1:58 left for the win.
Aggies threw a 74-yard TD pass in 3rd quarter; they led 17-9.
San Jose State outgained the Agues, 534-461.
Spartans were 9-17 on third down, Utah State 5-15

— Famous birthdays, October 18th:
Mike Ditka, 86
George Hendrick, 76
Pam Dawber, 74
Alex Cora, 50
Yoenis Cespedes, 40
Zac Efron, 38
Osvaldo Bido, 30
Terance Mann, 29

— Most starting pitchers used, last two years:
31- White Sox, Marlins
27- Dodgers, Brewers
24- Angels, Mets, Giants
23- Braves, Red Sox

— Fewest starting pitchers used, last two years:
10- Mariners
12- Cardinals
14- Bronx, Nationals
16- Rockies, Royals, Phillies

— Dodgers-Brewers, Blue Jays-Mariners. This year’s Final Four
Only one player ever has played for all four of those teams: Henry Blanco, who played 16 years in the big leagues, for 11 different teams.

— Dolphins-Browns Sunday will have two lefty QB’s starting, first time that has happened in the NFL since 2006, an Atlanta-Tampa Bay game (Vick-Chris Simms)
By the way, this game could have winds as high as 60 MPH, with a 94% chance of rain.

— Since 2016, there have been 16 college football teams that started a season 0-6 ATS; those teams went 5-10-1 ATS in their 7th game. Penn State fits that bill this week.
Since 2020, there have been eight teams that started a season 6-0 ATS; those teams went 2-6 ATS in their 7th game. Memphis, Texas Tech fit the bill this week.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday’s 9-pack:
Highest-paid players in the NBA this year:
$59,606,817— Steph Curry, GSt
$55,224,526— Joel Embiid, Phil
$55,224,526— Nikola Jokic, Den
$54,708,609— Kevin Durant, Hst
$54,126,450— Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milw
$54,126,450— Luka Doncic, LAL
$54,126,450— Jimmy Butler, GSt
$54,126,450— Anthony Davis, Dal
$54,126,450— Jayson Tatum, Bos

Quote of the Day
“We wanted to play with fanatical effort, and the second thing was poise. The third thing was we talked about staying together, no matter what.”
UAB interim football coach Alex Mortensen, who led the Blazers to an upset win over Memphis Saturday. Alex is the son of the late Chris Mortensen, the great reporter on ESPN.

Sunday’s quiz
Who was QB for the Vikings, the first time they played in a Super Bowl?

Saturday’s quiz
The Sun Bowl is played in El Paso, TX every December.

Friday’s quiz
Toronto Blue Jays won consecutive World Series in 1992-93; Cito Gaston was their manager.

*******************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday……​

— Vanderbilt 31, LSU 24
Commodores are 6-1 for the first time since 1950.
Vandy ran ball 45 times for 239 yards (5.3 yards/carry)
Commodores snapped a 10-game losing skid vs LSU.

— Georgia 43, Ole Miss 35
QB Stockton threw for 289 yards, four TD’s.
Georgia outscored the Rebels 17-0 in fourth quarter.
Dawgs ran 80 plays for 510 yards, had 34 first downs.

— Arizona State 26, Texas Tech 22
Sun Devils drove 75 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:34 left.
First loss of year for Tech, who played without starting QB Morton.
WR Tyson caught 10 passes for 105 yards and a TD for ASU.

— UCLA 20, Maryland 17
Bruins kicked a 23-yard FG with 0:02 left for the comeback win.
Maryland had tied the game on a TD with 0:40 left.
UCLA is 3-0 since they fired their coach after an 0-4 start.

— Missouri 23, Auburn 17 OT
Mizzou led 10-7 at halftime.
Auburn RB Cobb ran ball 19 times for 111 yards.
Auburn is 0-4 in SEC, scoring 17-10-10-17 points.

— Upsets of the Week:
UAB (+20.5) 31, Memphis 24
Coastal Carolina (+10.5) 45, Appalachian State 37
Louisville (+10.5) 24, Miami 21
Arizona State (+9.5) 26, Texas Tech 22
Florida International (+9.5) 25, Western Kentucky 6
Minnesota (+8.5) 24, Nebraska 6
Arkansas State (+8.5) 15, South Alabama 14
SMU (+5.5) 35, Clemson 24
— Indiana 38, Michigan State 13

Five highest-paid coaches in college football:
$13M/year- Kirby Smart, Georgia
$12.5M- Ryan Day, Ohio State
$11.6M- Curt Cignetti, Indiana
$11.5M- Lincoln Riley, USC
$11.3M- Dabo Swinney, Clemson

— UAB 31, Memphis 24
Blazers fired their coach this week, then pulled biggest upset of the day.
UAB had good balance; ran ball for 219 yards, threw it for 251.
Blazers covered 9-13 third down plays, 6-1 Memphis 5-11.

— Georgia Tech 27, Duke 18
Tech had a 95-yard fumble return for TD in first quarter.
Game was tied 10-10 after the third quarter.
Tech was outgained 441-376; they’re quietest 7-0 team in country.

— California 21, North Carolina 18
TE on North Carolina fumbled on 1-yard line with 3:48 left.
Tar Heels are 1-4 vs I-A teams; the win was over 1-6 Charlotte.
Cal barely won, despite being +3 in turnovers.

— Famous birthdays, October 19th:
John Lithgow, 80
Lynn Dickey, 76
Lionel Hollins, 72
David Palmer, 68
Brad Daugherty, 60
Keith Foulke, 53
Leonard Little, 51
Michael Young, 49
Rajai Davis, 45
JA Happ, 43
Anthony Santander, 31
Zack Gelof, 26

— Houston 31, Arizona 28
Houston kicked a 41-yard FG at the gun, improved to 6-1.
Cougars ran ball 45 times for 232 yards.
Arizona was first team to score TD Saturday; they were 50-1 to do that at the South Point Casino in Las Vegas.

— Marshall 40, Texas State 37 OT
Bobcats lost in overtime for the second week in a row.
Texas State QB Jackson threw for 44 yards, 2 TD’s in a losing cause.
Bobcats turned ball over three times, had 12 penalties for 80 yards.

— Tulane 24, Army 17
6-1 Green Wave scored two TD’s in last 1:54 for the comeback win.
Total yardage: Tulane 402, Army 358
Army ran ball 63 times for 233 yards.

— Alabama 37, Tennessee 20
Vols QB Aguilar threw a 99-yard pick-6 on last play of first half.
If Tennessee had kicked FG there, they would’ve trailed 16-10 at the half.
Vols outgained Alabama 409-373, but had 10 penalties for 67 yards.

— Texas 16, Kentucky 13 OT
Longhorns led 7-0 at halftime.
Kentucky kicked a 45-yard FG with 0:09 left to force OT.
In OT, Wildcats went for it on 4th-and-goal from the 1-yard line, but failed.