First Post - thru Dec. 18
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
December 17
Bahamas Bowl
Middle Tennessee (6-6) vs Toledo (7-5)
? MTSU won four of last six games to get to .500.
? MTSU is 5-0 if they allow 17 or less points, 1-6 if they allow 24+
? They?re +11 in turnovers, despite being minus-7 vs WKU.
? Blue Raiders are 2-4-1 ATS this year as an underdog.
? MTSU has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Blue Raiders have 49 returning starts on offensive line.
? MTSU have played pair of junior QB?s.
? Under is 7-4 in Blue Raider games this season.
? MTSU is 2-6 SU in bowls; their last bowl was 2018.
? Blue Raiders covered once in last five bowls.
? MTSU (+4.5) lost this bowl 45-31 to Western Michigan in ?15.
? Toledo won its last three games, scoring 44.3 ppg.
? Rockets have four losses by 2 or 3 points.
? Rockets have three losses this year, when favored by 9+ points.
? All seven Toledo wins are by 10+ points.
? Toledo is 8-6 ATS last 14 games as a favorite.
? Rockets have a +11 turnover ratio this year.
? Rockets have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
? Toledo has 101 returning starts on offensive line.
? Last four Toledo games went over the total.
? Rockets lost their last three bowls, are 10-8 overall.
? Toledo (-7) lost this bowl 35-32 to FIU in 2018.
? Rockets? last bowl win: 2015.
? C-USA/split the six Bahamas Bowls.
? Favorites are 3-3 ATS in this bowl.
? MAC teams are 2-0 vs C-USA this year, after going 1-9 in 2018-19.
? Favorites are 15-7 ATS in last 22 games between the two leagues.
Cure Bowl (Orlando)
Northern Illinois (9-4) vs Coastal Carolina (10-2)
? NIU won eight of its last ten games (7-3 ATS).
? Huskies were 0-6 last year, so this is a big deal for them,
? Huskies have four wins by 1 or 2 points.
? Huskies gave up 50-63-52-42 points in their four losses.
? NIU is 5-3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
? Huskies have nine starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? NIU has 59 returning starts on offensive line.
? NIU?s junior QB has 23 career starts (9 @ Michigan St).
? Huskies won the MAC title game December 4.
? Five of last seven NIU games went over the total.
? Huskies lost last five bowls, giving up 40.2 ppg.
? Their last bowl win was nine years ago.
? Chanticleers went 4-2 in last six games, after 6-0 start.
? Coastal is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
? Coastal?s two losses were by total of five points.
? Coastal ran for 200+ yards in 10 of their 12 games.
? Chanticleers have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Coastal has 137 returning starts on offensive line.
? Coastal?s QB has 24 career starts.
? Chanticleers are 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
? Four of Coastal?s five I-A wins are by 27+ points.
? Under is 7-3 in Chanticleers? last ten games.
? Coastal (-7) lost 37-34 in OT in this game LY, their first-ever bowl.
? Underdogs won this bowl SU four of last five years.
? Sun Belt teams are 2-4 SU in this bowl.
? Sun Belt teams are 17-11 SU in last 29 games vs MAC teams.
? MAC teams are 10-4 ATS as an underdog against Sun Belt squads.
December 18
Boca Raton Bowl
Western Kentucky (8-5) vs Appalachian State (10-3)
? WKU is 7-1 in last eight games, losing C-USA title tilt to UTSA.
? WKU started season 1-4, before going on this 7-1 run.
? Hilltoppers scored 31+ points in all five of their losses.
? WKU scored 41+ points in eight of last nine games.
? Hilltoppers threw for 495+ yards in three of last four games.
? WKU has 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
? Hilltoppers have 75 returning starts on offensive line.
? WKU?s QB played four years at I-AA Houston Baptist (48 starts)
? WKU is 3-2 ATS this season in games with single digit spread.
? Over is 8-4 in Hilltopper games this year.
? WKU is 3-2 SU in last five bowls (were favored in all five)
? Hilltoppers won this bowl 51-31 over Memphis in 2016.
? Four of WKU?s last five games went over the total.
? App State is 6-1 last seven games, losing Sun Belt title tilt to ULL.
? ASU is 10-0 when they score 27+ points, 0-3 when they don?t.
? App State covered five of its last seven games.
? App State has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? ASU has 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
? App State has a QB with 24 starts- he transferred from Duke.
? ASU is 6-0 all-time in bowl games.
? Mountaineers scored 39.4 ppg in last five bowls.
? Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
? App State is 3-3 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
? Favorites are 5-2 ATS in this bowl.
? Conference USA teams are 5-1 ATS in this game.
? Sun Belt teams are 20-15 ATS last 35 games vs C-USA teams.
? Sun Belt teams are 4-2 ATS vs C-USA teams this year.
New Mexico Bowl
Texas-El Paso (7-5) vs Fresno State (9-3)
? UTEP was 5-39 the last four years; they?ve had a great year.
? That said, Miners lost four of last five games, after a 6-1 start.
? UTEP allowed 32.4 ppg in last five games.
? Miners have 11 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? UTEP has 101 returning starts on offensive line.
? UTEP?s soph QB has 19 starts.
? UTEP is 7-5 ATS in last dozen games as an underdog.
? This is UTEP?s first bowl since 2014.
? Miners are 0-5 in bowls this century; their last bowl win? 1967.
? UTEP this bowl game 52-24/21-6 in 2010/2014.
? Four of last five UTEP games overall went over the total.
? Fresno?s coach, OC and QB have all bolted team.
? Fresno may play two QB?s here- they threw combined 21 passes TY.
? Bulldogs re-hired former HC Jeff Tedford as head coach.
? Fresno won five of its last six games.
? Bulldogs are 8-0 if they score 30+ points, 1-3 if they don?t.
? Bulldogs were held to 24 or fewer points in their losses.
? Fresno is 3-2 SU on road, winning by 3-17-10 points.
? Fresno has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Bulldogs have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Bulldogs are 8-6 ATS last 14 games as favorites.
? Fresno won last two bowls, 33-27/31-20.
? Under is 5-2 in last seven Fresno games.
? Last ten years, favorites are 5-5 ATS in this bowl.
? Since 2013, Mountain West teams are 6-2 SU/4-4 ATS in this bowl.
? C-USA underdogs are 8-5 ATS in last 13 games vs MW teams.
? Mountain West teams are 9-7 SU last 16 games vs C-USA squads.
Independence Bowl (Shreveport, LA)
UAB (8-4) vs BYU (10-2)
? UAB is 5-2 in last seven games, losing by 6-3 points.
? Blazers ran ball for 220+ yards in three of last four games.
? UAB covered three of four games as an underdog this year.
? Blazers scored 31+ points in five of last seven games.
? UAB is 7-0 giving up 25 or less points, 1-4 giving up 30+.
? UAB has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? UAB has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
? Blazers? soph QB has started 17 games.
? UAB is 4-1 ATS this year in games with single digit spread.
? UAB is 1-3 in bowls, beat Northern Illinois 37-13 in 2018.
? Four of Blazers? last five games went over the total.
? BYU won its last five games, scoring 43 ppg.
? Eight of ten Cougar wins are by 8+ points.
? BYU beat Virginia, is 4-0 vs Pac-12 teams this year.
? BYU covered once in last six lined games.
? Cougars are 10-16 ATS last 26 games as a favorite.
? Cougars have 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
? BYU has 86 returning starts on the offensive line.
? BYU has soph QB with eight starts.
? Under Sitake, BYU is 11-13 ATS as home favorites.
? BYU won three of last four bowls, scoring 39 ppg.
? Favorites are 3-2 ATS in their last five bowls.
? Under is 7-4 in BYU games this season.
? Underdogs covered this bowl four of last six years.
? Last ten years, C-USA teams are 2-1 ATS in this bowl.
? Last five years, total in Independence Bowl was 55+ four times.
LendingTree Bowl (Mobile, AL)
Eastern Michigan (7-5) @ Liberty (7-5)
? EMU is 5-0 when it scores 35+ points, 2-5 when it doesn?t.
? EMU is 5-0 when it allows 27 or less, 2-5 when it allows 28+ points.
? Eagles scored 19.3 ppg in their last three games.
? Eastern allowed 200+ YR in seven of 11 I-A games.
? Eagles have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
? EMU has 92 returning starts on offensive line.
? EMU?s soph QB has 14 starts (2 at Cincinnati).
? Eagles are 27-11-1 ATS last 39 games as an underdog.
? EMU lost last three bowls, by 4-2-4 points.
? Eagles are 1-3 all-time in bowls; win was in 1987.
? EMU?s last three games stayed under the total.
? Liberty lost last three games, after a 7-2 start.
? Liberty is 6-0 when it scores 35+, 1-5 when it doesn?t.
? Flames scored 14-14-16 points in last three games.
? Liberty is 6-0 when it allows 17 or less, 1-5 when it allows more.
? Flames allowed 33.3 ppg in their last three games.
? Under Freeze, Liberty is 11-7 ATS as a favorite.
? Liberty has 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Liberty has 127 returning starts on offensive line.
? Flames? junior QB has 22 career starts.
? Under Freeze, Liberty is 9-4 ATS as home favorites.
? Liberty is 2-0 in bowls, winning 23-16/37-34 last two years.
? Last three Liberty games stayed under the total.
? Underdogs are 6-4 ATS in this bowl the last decade.
? Last nine years, MAC teams are 2-6 ATS in this bowl.
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl (Los Angeles)
Oregon State (7-5) vs Utah State (10-3)
? This is Oregon State?s first bowl since 2013.
? Oregon State is 3-4 in last seven games, after a 4-1 start.
? OSU is 1-5 on road this year; only win was at USC, here in LA.
? Beavers are 6-0 giving up 27 or less points, 1-5 giving up 30+.
? Beavers ran ball for 200+ yards in nine of 12 games.
? Oregon State is 14-6-1 ATS last 21 games as an underdog.
? Beavers have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Oregon State has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
? OSU?s soph QB has 15 career starts
? Oregon State is 3-2 in last five bowls (favored in all five).
? Over is 4-2 in last six Oregon State games.
? Utah State won seven of its last eight games.
? Aggies crushed San Diego State 46-13 in MW title game Dec 4th.
? Aggies are 10-0 scoring 26+ points, 0-3 when they don?t.
? Utah is 4-0 in games decided by four or less points.
? Aggies have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Utah State has 69 returning starts on offensive line.
? USU?s QB has 28 career starts- he played at Ark State for coach Anderson.
? Aggies are 6-4 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
? Utah State is 18-7-1 ATS last 26 games as a favorite.
? Over is 4-2 in last six Utah State games.
? Utah State lost three of last four bowl games (favored in all four)
? Mountain West teams are 17-12 ATS last 29 games vs Pac-12.
? Mountain West teams are 6-3 ATS this year vs Pac-12.
New Orleans Bowl
Louisiana (12-1) vs Marshall (7-5)
? Coach Napier is off to Florida; the OC is the new coach.
? Louisiana won 12 games in row since 38-18 loss at Texas.
? Cajuns beat App State 24-16 in Sun Belt title game Dec 4th.
? Last six games, ULL is +13 in turnovers.
? Cajuns are 5-0 SU at home (three wins by 5 or less points)
? ULL held five of last six opponents to 17 or less points.
? Cajuns have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Louisiana has 140 returning starts on offensive line.
? Cajuns? senior QB has started 40 games.
? Last two years, Louisiana is 6-10 ATS as favorites.
? Louisiana is 6-2 in bowls, winning last two, 27-17/31-24.
? Eight of Louisiana?s last ten games stayed under total.
? Louisiana figures to have home crowd edge in New Orleans.
? Marshall lost two of its last three games.
? Thundering Herd gave up 36.2 ppg in losses, 13.5 in I-A wins.
? Marshall is minus-5 in turnovers this year.
? Thundering Herd is 1-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
? Marshall gained 447+ TY in four of last six games.
? Thundering Herd has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Marshall has 137 returning starts on offensive line.
? Thundering Herd has a QB with 22 starts.
? Last two years, Marshall is 3-0 ATS as an underdog.
? Marshall is 12-4 in bowls; they lost last two, 48-25/17-10.
? Under is 6-2 in last eight Marshall games.
? Favorites covered this bowl five of last six years.
? Last six years, C-USA teams are 2-4 ATS in this bowl.
? Sun Belt teams are 20-15 ATS last 35 games vs C-USA teams.
? Sun Belt teams are 4-2 ATS vs C-USA teams this year.
