ArmadilloSports
Wednesday?s 6-pack:
College football ATS trends:
? Home teams are 14-4 ATS in AAC games.
? Underdogs are 17-10 ATS in ACC games.
? Big 14 road favorites of 4 or less points are 5-1 ATS.
? Big X favorites are 12-8 ATS.
? Pac-12 favorites of less than 8 points: 3-6 ATS. Favorites of 10+: 4-6
? SEC home favorites of more than 8 points: 8-3
NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 9
Thursday?s games
Troy (4-3) @ Coastal Carolina (6-1)
? Trojans won last two games; they split four road tilts.
? Troy scored 21+ in their wins, 13-16-14 in losses.
? Troy is 0-3 when it allows 100+ rushing yards.
? Trojans have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Troy has 94 returning starts on offensive line.
? Troy?s QB has 8 career starts- he used to play at Missouri.
? Under Lindsey, Trojans are 1-6 ATS as a road underdog.
? Chanticleers lost for first time LW, 30-27 at App State.
? Coastal ran ball for 261.6 yards/game in I-A wins.
? Chanticleers have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Coastal has 137 returning starts on offensive line.
? Coastal?s QB has 18 career starts.
? Chanticleers are 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
? Four of Coastal?s five I-A wins are by 27+ points.
? Teams split four meetings; Coastal won last two, 42-38/36-35
? Chanticleers scored winning TD with 0:35 left in LY?s 42-38 win.
? Teams split two meetings here.
? Sun Belt double digit favorites are 5-5 ATS.
South Florida (2-5) @ East Carolina (3-4)
? South Florida ran for 421 yards LW, ending a 3-game skid.
? Bulls are 0-3 SU on road, giving up 41.3 ppg.
? USF gave up 443+ TY in five of six I-A games.
? USF has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Bulls have 108 returning starts on the offensive line.
? USF has a true freshman QB with seven starts.
? Bulls are 4-6-1 ATS last 11 games as road underdogs.
? East Carolina scored 31+ in its wins, 24 or less in its losses.
? ECU lost an overtime game to Houston Saturday.
? Five of their last six games were decided by 7 or less points.
? East Carolina has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Pirates have 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
? East Carolina has a junior QB has started 32 games.
? Pirates are 3-9 ATS in last dozen games as a home favorite.
? South Florida won nine of last 11 series games.
? East Carolina (+6) won LY?s meeting 44-24.
? USF covered four of last five visits to East Carolina.
? AAC home favorites are 8-3 ATS.
Friday?s games
Navy (1-6) @ Tulsa (3-4)
? Navy hung tough with Cincinnati LW, losing 27-20.
? Middies outgained Cincinnati, 308-271.
? Navy is 0-2 on road (28-20 @ Houston, 35-17 @ Memphis).
? Navy has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Middies have 19 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Navy play three different QB?s, none of whom throw much.
? Last three years, Navy is 2-6 ATS as a road underdog.
? Last three Navy games stayed under the total.
? Tulsa won its last two games by total of seven points.
? Tulsa scored 32+ points in its wins, 23 or less in losses.
? Golden Hurricane ran for 274 yards/game in its wins.
? Golden Hurricane has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Tulsa has 120 returning starts on offensive line.
? Tulsa?s soph QB has started 7 games.
? Tulsa is 2-5-1 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
? All six of Tulsa?s I-A games went over the total.
? Navy won six of last eight series games.
? Middies won/covered last four visits to Tulsa.
? AAC home favorites are 8-3 ATS.
UNLV (0-7) @ Nevada (5-2)
? UNLV?s last four losses were all by 8 or fewer points.
? Rebels gave up 39.5 ppg in first four games, 26.3 in last three.
? Rebels gave up 429+ TY in six of seven games.
? UNLV has 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Rebels have 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
? UNLV is shuffling QB?s.
? Since 2012, Rebels are 31-16 ATS as a road dog, 3-0 TY.
? Nevada lost 34-32 in Fresno LW, ending 3-game win streak.
? Last three games, Wolf Pack threw for 463-395-476 yards.
? Nevada gave up 38-34 points in their two losses.
? Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Wolf Pack has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Nevada?s soph QB has 26 career starts.
? Under Norvell, Wolf Pack is 9-6 ATS as a home favorite.
? Teams split last eight meetings in this rivalry.
? Rebels are 3-1 ATS in last four visits to Reno.
? Underdogs are 6-3 ATS in last nine series games.
? Mountain West double digit home favorites are 3-2 ATS.
Saturday?s games
Iowa (6-1) @ Wisconsin (4-3)
? Iowa got upset 24-7 in last game, giving up 378 PY.
? Hawkeyes are 2-0 on road (27-17 @ Iowa St, 51-14 @ Maryland).
? Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Iowa has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Hawkeyes have a soph QB this year, with 14 starts.
? Last seven years, Iowa is 5-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.
? Under is 5-2 in Iowa games this season.
? Wisconsin won last three games, after a 1-3 start.
? Wisconsin is 4-0 when it scores 20+ points, 0-3 when it doesn?t.
? Wisconsin is 0-3 when it allows more than 14 points.
? Badgers are minus-8 in turnovers.
? Badgers threw only 8 passes in their win at Purdue LW.
? Badgers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Wisconsin has 59 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Wisconsin has a freshman QB, with 13 starts- he is struggling.
? Last four years, Badgers are 6-15 ATS as home favorites.
? Wisconsin won seven of last nine series games.
? Iowa is 6-1 ATS in last seven visits to Madison.
? Big 14 single digit home favorites are 3-4-1 ATS.
Michigan (7-0) @ Michigan State (7-0)
? Michigan scored 37.7 ppg in its 7-0 start.
? Michigan is 2-0 on road; 38-17 win at Wisconsin, 32-29 at Nebraska.
? Nebraska is only team to score more than 17 vs Michigan.
? Michigan ran ball for 200+ yards in five of seven games.
? Michigan has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Wolverines have 30 returning starts on offensive line.
? Michigan?s QB has started nine games.
? Under Harbaugh, Wolverines are 10-12 ATS as road favorites.
? Michigan State is 7-0, has five wins by 17+ points.
? MSU was outgained 322-241 at Indiana LW, but won 20-15.
? State gained 454+ TY in five of seven I-A games.
? Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? MSU has 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Michigan State has senior QB who started 26 games for Temple.
? Last four years, MSU is 2-11 ATS as home favorite.
? Under is 4-1 in Michigan State?s last five games.
? Michigan is 9-4 in last 13 series games, 2-3 in last five.
? Wolverines are 1-5 ATS in last six visits to East Lansing.
? Favorites are 9-5-1 ATS in last fifteen series games.
? Big 14 road favorites of 5 or less points are 4-2 ATS.
Iowa State (5-2) @ West Virginia (3-4)
? Iowa State won last three games, after a 2-2 start.
? ISU ran ball for 210+ yards in three of last four games.
? Cyclones gave up 27-31 points in their two losses.
? Cyclones have 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? ISU has 93 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Cyclones have a junior QB this year, with 39 starts.
? Under Campbell, ISU is 8-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
? West Virginia upset TCU LW, snapping a 3-game skid.
? WVU was held under 100 YR in all four of their losses.
? Five of WVU?s six I-A games stayed under the total.
? Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Mountaineers have junior QB with 38 career starts.
? Under Brown, West Virginia is 2-4 ATS as home underdogs.
? Iowa State won last three series games, scoring 36.7 ppg.
? West Virginia averaged only 201.7 ypg in last three meetings.
? Favorites covered last three meetings played here.
? Big X single digit road favorites are 4-1-1 ATS.
Virginia Tech (3-4) @ Georgia Tech (3-4)
? Tech lost last four of its last five games.
? Hokies gave up 14 points in last 2:28 in LW?s 41-36 loss.
? Hokies allowed 10-14-10 points in wins, 27+ in losses.
? Hokies lost its only road game, 27-21 at West Virginia.
? Tech has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Tech has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Hokies? junior QB has started 11 games.
? Under Fuente, Tech is 5-4 ATS as road underdogs.
? Georgia Tech is 3-1 when it scores 31+ points, 0-3 when it doesn?t.
? Jackets gave up 489+ TY in its last three games.
? Jackets gained 432+ TY in its last three games.
? Tech gained 570 TY in its 48-40 loss to Virginia LW.
? Georgia Tech has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Jackets have 117 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Georgia Tech has been using two QB?s this season.
? Under Collins, Jackets are 0-3-1 ATS as home favorites.
? Underdogs won six of last seven series games SU.
? Ga Tech won 3 of last 4 meetings, but lost last one 45-0, in 2019.
? Hokies covered six of last seven visits to Georgia Tech.
? ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 3-6 ATS.
UCLA (5-3) @ Utah (4-3)
? UCLA ran ball for 200+ yards in wins, 139 ypg in losses.
? UCLA is 3-0 on road; their losses are all at home.
? Bruins gave up 40-42-34 points in their losses.
? UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Bruins have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
? UCLA?s junior QB is making his 31st career start.
? Under Kelly, Bruins are 9-5 ATS as road underdogs.
? Under Kelly, Bruins are 11-9 ATS coming off a loss.
? Utah won three of last four games, scoring 33.8 ppg.
? Utes are 2-0 in Pac-12 home games, winning by 11-14 points.
? Utes gave up 219-204-260 YR in their three losses.
? Utah is giving up 31.8 ppg on road, 17 ppg at home.
? Utah has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Utes have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Utah has soph quarterback with 6 starts.
? Utah is 15-7 ATS in last 22 games as home favorites.
? Utah won last four series games, last three by combined 138-30
? Utes averaged 47.5 ppg in last four meetings.
? UCLA is 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Utah.
? Pac-12 home favorites of 8 or less points are 3-6 ATC.
TCU (3-4) @ Kansas State (4-3)
? TCU lost four of its last five games.
? Horned Frogs gave up 36.3 ppg in their six I-A games.
? TCU allowed 214+ rushing yards in their last five games.
? Over is 4-2 in TCU?s six I-A games.
? TCU has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
? TCU has a soph QB this year, with 26 starts.
? Last five years, TCU is 3-6 ATS as a road underdog.
? K-State lost three of last four games, winning 25-24 @ Texas Tech LW.
? Wildcats allowed 24 or less points in wins, 31-37-33 in losses.
? Under Klieman, K-State is 5-3 ATS as home favorites.
? Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
? K-State has 53 returning starts on offensive line.
? Wildcats have senior QB with 32 career starts.
? Under Klieman, K-State is 10-5 ATS coming off a win.
? Four of last five K-State games went over.
? K-State won last two series games, 21-14/24-17
? Underdogs covered three of last four games played here.
? Average total in last five meetings, 34.2
? Underdogs are 5-3 ATS in last eight series games.
? Big X favorites of 5 or less points are 5-2-1 ATS.
Kentucky (6-1) @ Mississippi State (4-3)
? Four of Kentucky?s six wins were by 7 or less points.
? Wildcats are 6-1 despite being minus-8 in turnovers.
? Kentucky was held under 300 TY in two of last three games.
? Kentucky has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
? Wildcats have 62 returning starts on offensive line.
? Kentucky?s QB has 9 career starts; he transferred from Penn State.
? Last ten years, Wildcats are 3-3 ATS as road favorites.
? Last ten years, Wildcats are 19-31-3 ATS coming off a loss.
? Miss State lost its last two home games, giving up 77 points.
? Under Leach, Miss State is 1-7 ATS at home.
? Bulldogs are 1-3 when they give up more than 22 points.
? Miss State threw for 371+ yards in four of last five games.
? Bulldogs have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? MSU has 37 returning starts on offensive line.
? Bulldogs have a freshman QB this year, with 14 starts.
? Last ten years, Wildcats are 30-24 ATS coming off a win.
? Miss State won nine of last 12 series games.
? Wildcats covered once in last five visits to Starkville.
? Favorites are 7-3 ATS in last ten series games.
? Road team is 4-1 ATS in SEC games with spread of 5 or less.
Penn State (5-2) @ Ohio State (1-0)
? Penn State lost its last two games, by total of five points.
? Nittany Lions were held to 287-227 TY in last two games.
? PSU gave up 357 YR in its OT loss to Illinois LW.
? Penn State has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Penn State has 47 returning starts on offensive line.
? Penn State has a junior QB, with 27 starts.
? Last 4+ years, Nittany Lions are 4-2 ATS as road underdogs.
? Under is 5-2 in Penn State games.
? Ohio State won its last five games, covered last four.
? Average score of Buckeyes? last four games; 58-11.
? Last four games, OSU average 375.5 passing yards/game.
? Buckeyes have 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
? OSU has 37 returning starts on offensive line.
? Ohio State?s QB has seven career starts.
? Coach Day is 17-5 ATS as a favorite, 9-4 at home.
? Over is 5-2 in Ohio State games this season.
? Ohio State won four in row, eight of last nine series games.
? Buckeyes ran for 200+ yards in 10 of last 12 series games.
? Penn State is 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to Columbus.
? Big 14 double digit favorites are 8-5-1 ATS.
SMU (7-0) @ Houston (6-1)
? Mustangs are averaging 40.5 ppg against I-A opponents.
? Last three games, SMU threw ball for 354.3 yards/game.
? SMU has scored 31+ points in every game this season.
? Mustangs are 3-0 SU on road, despite giving up 31.7 ppg.
? SMU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Mustangs have 141 returning starts on offensive line.
? SMU has a soph QB this year; he was a backup at Oklahoma.
? SMU is 9-17-1 ATS in its last 27 road games.
? Houston won its last five I-A games, scoring 37.6 ppg.
? Cougars allowed 291.4 yards/game in last five I-A games.
? Cougars have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Houston has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
? Houston?s junior QB has started 24 games.
? LW, Houston was outgained 360-256, but beat ECU in OT.
? Under Holgorsen, Houston is 3-9 ATS at home.
? Four of last five Houston games went over.
? SMU won three of last four series games.
? Mustangs are 1-5 ATS in last six visits to SMU.
? Underdogs covered four of last five meetings.
? AAC home favorites are 8-3 ATS.
Texas (4-3) @ Baylor (6-1)
? Texas lost its last two games, giving up 55-32 points.
? Longhorns allowed 40.7 ppg in three games away from Austin.
? Texas has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Longhorns have 82 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Texas starts a sophomore QB.
? In his career, Sarkisian is 9-15 ATS as a road underdog.
? Longhorns are 4-2 ATS last six games as road underdogs.
? Four of last six Texas games went over the total.
? Baylor won last two games, scoring 45-38 points.
? Baylor had LW off after a 38-24 win over BYU (303 YR).
? Bears? only loss was 24-14 at Oklahoma State.
? Bears have 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Baylor has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Bears have a soph QB this year, with 7 starts.
? Under Aranda, Baylor is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? Texas won five of last six series games.
? Longhorns are 7-4 ATS in last 11 visits to Waco.
? Big X favorites of 5 or less points are 5-2-1 ATS.
Ole Miss (6-1) @ Auburn (5-2)
? Ole Miss won its last three games, scoring 38 ppg.
? Rebels ran ball for 289.7 ypg in those three games.
? Ole Miss is 1-1 on road: L42-21 @Alabama, W31-26 @ Tennessee.
? Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Ole Miss has 64 returning starts on offensive line.
? Rebels? soph QB has started 22 games.
? Last three years, Ole Miss is 5-2 ATS as road underdog.
? In his career, Kiffin is 13-6-1 ATS as a road underdog.
? Auburn gave up 201/232 YR in its last two games.
? Tigers are 5-0 if they score 24+ points; they scored 10-20 in losses.
? Tigers are 5-0 if they gain 400+ yards; they had 367-318 in losses.
? Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Auburn has 89 returning starts on offensive line.
? Tigers have a soph QB with 31 career starts.
? Last three years, Auburn is 7-3 ATS as home favorites.
? Auburn won last five series games, scoring 36 ppg.
? Ole Miss covered last three visits to Auburn.
? Rebels gained 429+ TY in 8 of last 9 meetings.
? Road team covered last seven series games.
Florida (4-3) vs Georgia (7-0)
? Florida?s wins this year are all by 21+ points.
? Florida?s losses this year are all by 7 or less points.
? Gators gained 430+ TY in six of seven games.
? Florida has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
? Gators have 54 returning starts on offensive line.
? Florida has been playing two QB?s recently.
? Under Mullen, Florida is 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
? Four of Gators? last five games stayed under the total.
? Georgia is #1 in country, with one win by less than 17.
? Georgia won last six games by a combined 259-43.
? Dawgs are 5-0 in SEC, winning by average of 40-7.
? Dawgs held five of seven opponents under 250 TY.
? Dawgs have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
? Georgia has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Dawgs may play two QB?s this week.
? Georgia is 8-5 ATS in last 13 games as a favorite.
? Georgia won three of last four series games.
? Favorites covered five of last six series games.
? Under is 6-3-1 in last ten meetings.
North Carolina (4-3) @ Notre Dame (6-1)
? UNC allowed 32+ points in four of last five games.
? Tar Heels are 0-2 on road (17-10 @ Va Tech, 45-22 @ Ga Tech).
? Carolina is 4-0 when it scores 38+ points.
? UNC scored 10-22-25 points in its losses.
? Tar Heels have 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Tech has 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
? UNC has a soph QB with 32 career starts.
? Last six years, Tar Heels are 9-6 ATS as road underdogs.
? Notre Dame scored 31+ points in five of seven games.
? Notre Dame?s only loss was 24-13 at home to unbeaten Cincinnati.
? ND covered four of its last five games.
? Notre Dame has 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
? Notre Dame has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Notre Dame has been using two QB?s.
? Last six years, Notre Dame is 15-17 ATS as home favorites.
? Notre Dame won four of five series games.
? Notre Dame outgained Tar Heels 478-298 in LY?s 31-17 win.
