NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 7
Thursday?s games
Georgia Southern (2-4) @ South Alabama (3-2)
? Georgia Southern is 1-4 vs I-A teams, giving up 34.2 ppg.
? In their I-A win, Eagles ran for 503 yards, completed 3-13 passes.
? GSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
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? Eagles have 104 returning starts on offensive line.
? Georgia Southern?s soph QB has 10 starts.
? Last four years, Eagles are 5-4 ATS as road underdogs.
? South Alabama lost last two games, both by 2 points.
? Jaguars gave up 437 rushing yards in those games.
? USA has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
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? Jaguars have 69 returning starts on offensive line.
? USA?s QB has also played at South Carolina/Utah.
? Last four years, Jaguars are 4-1 ATS as home favorites.
? Georgia Southern won last seven series games (6-1 ATS)
? Last two years, games were 24-17/20-17.
? Eagles covered two of last three visits to Mobile.
Navy (1-4) @ Memphis (3-3)
? Navy scored 26 ppg in last three games (7-3 in first two).
? Navy lost only road game 28-20 at Houston (+20).
? Navy has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Middies have 19 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Navy play three different QB?s, none of whom throw much.
? Last 2+ years, Navy is 2-5 ATS as a road underdog.
? Memphis lost last three games, giving up 33.3 ppg.
? Tigers? losses are by 3-3-6 points.
? Memphis gave up 200+ RY in two of last three games.
? All five of their I-A games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
? Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Memphis has 104 returning starts on offensive line.
? Memphis has a freshman QB with six starts.
? Under Silverfield, Memphis is 1-4 ATS as a home favorite.
? Memphis won three of last four series games.
? LY, Memphis (-13.5) won 10-7 in Annapolis.
? Navy ran for 264+ yards in five of last six series games.
Friday?s games
Clemson (3-2) @ Syracuse (3-2)
? Clemson lost only road game, 27-21 at NC State.
? Tigers are 2-2 in I-A games; both wins were by 6 points.
? Tigers gained less than 300 TY in three of four I-A games.
? Clemson has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Tigers have 37 returning starts on offensive line.
? Clemson?s freshman QB has made 7 starts.
? Clemson is 12-7-1 ATS in last 20 games as a road favorite.
? Average total in Clemson?s I-A games: 28.8.
? Syracuse?s I-A wins: 29-9 at Ohio U, 24-21 over Liberty.
? Syracuse ran ball for 228-239 yards in its last two games.
? Last two Syracuse games were both decided by a FG.
? Syracuse has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Syracuse has 120 returning starts on offensive line.
? Orange junior QB has 20 career starts.
? Under Babers, Syracuse is 9-11 ATS as home underdogs.
? Clemson is 7-1 last eight series games (41-6/47-21 last two).
? Tigers are 2-2 ATS last four trips to the Carrier Dome.
? This is lowest spread in this series since 2014.
Marshall (3-3) @ North Texas (1-4)
? Marshall lost three of its last four games.
? Thundering Herd gave up 35.7 ppg in losses, 7-13 in I-A wins.
? Marshall gave up 233.3 rushing yards/game last three games.
? Thundering Herd has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Marshall has 137 returning starts on offensive line.
? Thundering Herd has a QB with 16 starts.
? Last 2+ years, Marshall is 4-3 ATS as a road favorite.
? North Texas is 0-4 vs I-A teams, giving up 36.8 ppg.
? Mean Green gave up 225+ YR in three of five games.
? North Texas has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? North Texas has 78 returning starts on offensive line.
? Mean Green has played two QBs.
? Last 3 years, North Texas is 0-3 ATS as home underdogs.
? UNT threw for 305 yards in 48-35 loss at Missouri LW.
? These teams haven?t met since 2016.
San Diego State (5-0) @ San Jose State (3-2)
? San Diego State scored 36.3 ppg in its four I-A wins.
? Aztecs ran ball for 231.5 yards/game in those wins.
? San Diego State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Aztecs have 65 returning starts on offensive line.
? San Diego State has a junior QB with 7 starts.
? Last 4+ years, Aztecs are 8-4 ATS as road favorites.
? San Jose split four I-A games, scoring 7-3 points in losses.
? Spartans are minus-7 in turnovers this season.
? Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? San Jose has 112 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Spartans have senior QB with 13 career starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
? San Jose is 9-5 ATS last 14 games as a road dog (0-2 TY).
? San Jose (+10) upset the Aztecs 28-17 LY.
? San Diego State won 7 of last 8 series games.
? Aztecs covered their last four visits to San Jose.
California (1-4) @ Oregon (4-1)
? Only one of Cal?s four losses was by more than 7 points.
? Cal lost road games 34-32 at TCU, 31-24 @ Washington.
? Bears? only win was 42-30 over a I-AA team.
? Bears have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Cal has 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Bears have junior QB with 27 starts.
? Last four years, Cal is 10-1 ATS as a road underdog.
? Oregon lost its last game, 31-24 at Stanford.
? Ducks were +12 in turnovers first 4 games, minus-1 last game.
? Oregon allowed 25.5 ppg in its four I-A games.
? Ducks have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Oregon has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
? Oregon?s QB has 33 career starts, 28 at Boston College.
? Under Cristobal, Ducks are 6-10 ATS as home favorites.
? Cal (+9) upset Oregon 21-17 LY.
? Ducks won 10 of last 12 series games.
? Cal is 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Eugene.
Saturday?s games
Pitt (4-1) @ Virginia Tech (3-2)
? Panthers scored 46.3 ppg in its I-A games.
? Pitt is 2-0 on road; 41-34 at Tennessee, 52-21 at Ga Tech.
? Pitt is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 road games.
? Panthers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
? Pitt has 74 returning starts on offensive line.
? Pit?s senior QB has started 41 games.
? Last six years, Panthers are 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
? Tech lost last two I-A games, 27-21 at WVU, 32-29 to Notre Dame.
? Hokies are 10-12 ATS in last 22 home games.
? Tech has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Tech has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Hokies? junior QB has started nine games.
? Under Fuente, Tech is 4-5 ATS as home underdogs.
? Teams split last eight series games.
? Pitt is 4-2 ATS last six visits to Blacksburg.
? Underdogs are 8-4 ATS in last dozen series games.
Michigan State (6-0) @ Indiana (2-3)
? Michigan State is 6-0, has road wins by 17-21-18 points.
? MSU gave up 440+ TY in three of last four games.
? State gained 454+ TY in four of five I-A games.
? Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? MSU has 120 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Michigan State has senior QB who started 26 games for Temple.
? Last four years, MSU is 5-2 ATS as road favorite.
? Hoosiers? only I-A win is 33-31 over Western Kentucky.
? Indiana had last week off after losing 24-0 at Penn State.
? Hoosiers have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Indiana has 67 returning starts on offensive line.
? Indiana has a soph QB with 20 career starts.
? Indiana is 5-9 ATS last 14 games as a home underdog.
? Indiana (-7.5) blanked the Spartans 24-0 LY.
? MSU is 5-4 SU in last nine series games.
? Spartans are 6-3 ATS in last nine trips to Indiana.
Arizona (0-5) @ Colorado (1-4)
? Arizona has now lost 17 games in a row.
? Wildcats? I-A losses this year are by 8-24-22-18 points.
? Arizona gave up 329 RY in LW?s 34-16 loss to UCLA.
? Arizona has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Arizona has 81 returning starts on offensive line.
? Arizona?s soph QB started 16 games at South Florida.
? Wildcats are 6-11 ATS last 17 games as an underdog.
? Colorado lost last four games, outscored 102-34.
? Buffs threw for only 100 yards/game in those losses.
? Their only win was against a I-AA team.
? Buffs have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Colorado has 58 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Buffs are playing a true frosh QB with five career starts.
? Colorado is 4-8 ATS last 12 games as a home favorite.
? Arizona won seven of last nine series games.
? Wildcats covered three of last four visits to Boulder.
? Buffs ran for 407 yards in LY?s 24-13 win @ Arizona.
Arizona State (5-1) @ Utah (3-2)
? Arizona State won last three games, giving up 11.5 ppg.
? ASU lost 27-17 at BYU, beat UCLA 42-23 in its road games.
? ASU gained 426+ yards in all five of its I-A games.
? Sun Devils have 9 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
? ASU has 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Sun Devils have a soph QB with 22 career starts.
? Under Edwards, ASU is 9-7 ATS on the road.
? Utah won last two games, upsetting USC in Coliseum LW.
? Utes gave up 219-204 YR in their two losses.
? Utah has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Utes have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Utah has soph quarterback with 4 starts.
? Last five years, Utah is 14-9 ATS at home.
? Teams split last six series games.
? Sun Devils are 3-2 ATS last five visits to the Beehive State.
UCLA (4-2) @ Washington (1-2)
? UCLA gave up 40-42 points in losses, 27 or less in wins.
? UCLA was held under 200 YR in both its losses.
? Bruins is 2-0 on road; 35-24 at Stanford, 24-16 at Arizona.
? UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Bruins have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
? UCLA?s junior QB is making his 29th career start.
? Under Kelly, Bruins are 8-5 ATS as road underdogs.
? Washington lost 13-7 to I-AA Montana, 31-10 at Michigan.
? Huskies beat up on Arkansas State 52-3 LW.
? Washington has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Huskies have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Washington?s QB has 7 career starts.
? Last 2+ years, Huskies are 6-4 ATS as home favorites.
? Washington won last two series games, are 5-13 in last 18.
? Bruins are 5-3-1 ATS last nine visits to Seattle.
? Teams haven?t met since 2018.
Oklahoma State (5-0) @ Texas (4-1)
? Oklahoma State won its only road game, 21-20 in Boise (+3.5).
? OSU had LW off; Texas had emotional loss to Oklahoma.
? Cowboys have 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? OSU has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
? Cowboys? soph QB has started 24 games.
? OSU is 8-4 ATS in last 12 road games.
? Texas ran for 1,035 yards last three weeks, after 40-21 loss at Arkansas.
? Longhorns allowed 67 points in two games away from Austin.
? Texas has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Longhorns have 82 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Texas starts a sophomore QB; they scored 53.3 ppg last three games.
? Sarkisian is 26-17 ATS as a favorite, 6-6 on road.
? Longhorns are 4-7 ATS last 11 games as road favorite.
? Texas won last two series games, 41-34/36-30
? OSU outgained Texas 530-287 LY, but were -4 in turnovers.
? Cowboys are 5-1-1 ATS last seven visits to Austin.
TCU (3-2) @ Oklahoma (6-0)
? TCU gave up 836 RY, 105 points in losing 2 of last 3 games.
? Horned Frogs gave up 34.3 ppg in their four I-A games.
? TCU won its first road game of season LW, 52-31 in Lubbock.
? Frogs ran for 394 yards LW, threw only 10 passes.
? TCU has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
? TCU has a soph QB this year, with 24 starts.
? Last four years, TCU is 3-5 ATS as a road underdog.
? Sooners have a QB controversy; they haven?t named a starter.
? Oklahoma?s I-A wins are by 5-7-3-6-7 points.
? LW (331 YR) was first time TY they ran for 200+ yards.
? Sooners have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Oklahoma has 126 returning starts on offensive line.
? Sooners have two QB?s; they threw for 323 yards LW.
? Oklahoma is 10-12 ATS in last 22 games as home favorites.
? Oklahoma won last 7 series games (5-1 ATS last six).
? TCU covered four of last five visits to Norman.
Alabama (5-0) @ Mississippi State (3-2)
? Alabama is 1-1 on road: W31-29 @ Florida, L38-41 at Texas A&M
? Alabama outgained Aggies 522-379 LW
? Crimson Tide has 3 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Alabama has 89 returning starts on offensive line.
? Bama?s new QB has started six games.
? Last 5+ years, Alabama is 3-0 ATS coming off a loss.
? Last 5+ years, Alabama is 8-7 ATS as a road favorite.
? Miss State had LW off after winning 26-22 at Texas A&M.
? Bulldogs? two losses are by combined five points.
? Only one of their five games was decided by more than 4 points.
? Miss State gained 435+ TY in four of its five games.
? Bulldogs have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? MSU has 37 returning starts on offensive line.
? Bulldogs have a freshman QB this year, with 11 starts.
? In his career, Leach is 14-16 ATS as a home underdog.
? Alabama has beaten Bulldogs 13 times in a row (9-4 ATS).
? Alabama won last three meetings by combined 103-7.
? Crimson Tide is 5-4 ATS last nine visits to Starkville.
Kentucky (6-0) @ Georgia (5-0)
? Kentucky ran for 330 yards in LW?s 42-21 win over LSU.
? Wildcats are 6-0 despite being minus-8 in turnovers.
? Kentucky won only road game 16-10 at South Carolina (-4.5)
? Kentucky has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
? Wildcats have 62 returning starts on offensive line.
? Kentucky?s QB has 8 career starts; he transferred from Penn State.
? Last four years, Wildcats were 6-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
? Georgia is #1 in country this week for first time this year.
? Georgia won last five games by a combined 229-30.
? Dawgs are 4-0 in SEC, winning by average of 43-6.
? Dawgs ran football for 715 yards in last three games.
? Dawgs have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
? Georgia has 38 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Dawgs are playing with backup QB Bennett (8 TD, 2 Int TY)
? Georgia is 4-2 ATS in last six games as a home favorite.
? Georgia won last 11 series games (6-2 ATS last eight)
? Kentucky is 3-6 ATS last nine visits to Athens.
Florida (4-2) @ LSU (3-3)
? Florida?s wins this year are all by 21+ points.
? Gators are 1-1 on road; won 42-20 at USF, lost 20-13 at Kentucky.
? Florida has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
? Gators have 54 returning starts on offensive line.
? Florida?s new QB has six career starts.
? Under Mullen, Florida is 6-6 ATS as a road favorite.
? LSU lost last 2 games, 24-19 to Auburn, 42-21 at Kentucky.
? Last three games, Tigers gave up 471.3 yards/game.
? LW was first time in five I-A games they ran for 100+ yards (147)
? LSU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Tigers have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
? LSU?s junior QB has made nine starts.
? Last 11 years, Tigers are 5-4 ATS as home underdogs.
? LSU is 8-3 in last eleven series games.
? Florida is 1-3-1 ATS last five visits to Baton Rouge.
? Underdogs are 4-1-1 ATS in last six series games.
Ole Miss (4-1) @ Tennessee (4-2)
? Ole Miss gave up 1,127 TY, 93 points in splitting last 2 games.
? Rebels were outgained 676-611 in LW?s 52-51 win over Arkansas.
? Ole Miss scored 43+ points in all four of its wins.
? Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Ole Miss has 64 returning starts on offensive line.
? Rebels? soph QB has started 19 games.
? Last six years, Ole Miss is 1-6 ATS as road favorite.
? In his career, Kiffin is 11-15 ATS as a road favorite.
? Tennessee gave up 41-38 points in losses to Pitt, Florida.
? Tennessee ran for 705 yards last 2 weeks, vs Missouri/So Carolina.
? Tennessee has 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Vols have 70 returning starts on offensive line.
? Vols have QB with 20 starts who transferred from Va Tech.
? Last six years, Tennessee is 4-10 ATS as home underdogs.
? Four of their last five games went over the total.
? These teams haven?t met since 2014.
? Kiffin was Tennessee?s coach for one year (2009), going 7-6; he bolted for USC after that. Kiffin is not very popular in Knoxville.
Iowa State (3-2) @ Kansas State (3-2)
? Iowa State lost 27-17 to Iowa, 31-29 at Baylor, beat three stiffs.
? ISU ran ball for 506 yards in last two games.
? Cyclones have 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? ISU has 93 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Cyclones have a junior QB this year, with 37 starts.
? Under Campbell, ISU is 7-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
? K-State lost last two games, giving up 31-37 points.
? Last six years, Wildcats are 16-9 ATS coming off a loss.
? K-State outgained Oklahoma 420-392 in 37-31 loss 2 weeks ago.
? Wildcats have 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
? K-State has 53 returning starts on offensive line.
? Wildcats have senior QB with 31 career starts.
? Under Klieman, K-State is 5-3 ATS as a favorite.
? Cyclones won 2 of last 3 meetings, after losing previous ten.
? Iowa State is 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Manhattan.
? ISU ran for 240 yards in LY?s 45-0 win over K-State.
Auburn (4-2) @ Arkansas (4-2)
? Auburn played LSU/Georgia last two weeks; tough stretch.
? Tigers are 1-1 on road: lost 28-20 at Penn State, beat LSU 24-19.
? Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Auburn has 89 returning starts on offensive line.
? Tigers have a soph QB with 30 career starts.
? Last 7+ years, Auburn is 5-11 ATS as road underdog.
? Arkansas lost last 2 games, 37-0 at Georgia, 52-51 at Ole Miss.
? Hogs gave up 597 rushing yards in those games.
? Arkansas has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Razorbacks have 110 returning starts on offensive line.
? Arkansas has a freshman QB with 7 starts.
? Last 4 years, Razorbacks are 5-4 ATS as home favorites.
? Last seven years, Arkansas is 30-16-2 ATS coming off a loss.
? Auburn won last five series games, scoring 44.6 ppg.
? LY?s win was 30-28; total yardage was 446-437.
? Favorite covered last five series games played here.
