NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 8
Wednesday?s game
Coastal Carolina (6-0) @ Appalachian State (4-2)
? Chanticleers won last three games by a combined 161-29.
? Coastal ran ball for 261.6 yards/game in I-A games.
? Chanticleers have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Coastal has 137 returning starts on offensive line.
? Coastal?s QB has 17 career starts.
? Chanticleers are 5-2-1 ATS in last 7 games as a road favorite.
? This is Coastal?s first game this year with a single digit spread.
? App State scored 31+ points in wins, 23-13 in losses.
? ASU beat Marshall 31-30 in its only I-A home game.
? Last seven years, App State is 10-5 ATS coming off a loss.
? App State has 7 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? ASU has 69 returning starts on the offensive line.
? App State has a QB with 17 starts- he transferred from Duke.
? Over last decade, ASU is 1-2 ATS as a home underdog.
? Coastal (-4.5) beat App State 34-23 at home LY.
? App State won three of last four series games.
? Chanticleers lost 56-37/37-29 in last two visits here.
? Single digit home dogs are 3-0 ATS in Sun Belt this year.
Thursday?s games
Tulane (1-5) @ SMU (6-0)
? Tulane is 0-5 vs I-A teams, giving up average of 44.2 ppg.
? Green Wave scored 21+ points in all five games (1-4 ATS).
? Green Wave has 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
? Tulane has 114 returning starts on offensive line.
? Green Wave are playing a freshman QB with 18 starts.
? Last four years, Tulane is 4-8-1 ATS as a home underdog.
? In his career, Fritz is 9-14-1 ATS as a road underdog.
? Mustangs are averaging 37.6 ppg against I-A opponents.
? SMU ran for 350 yards in 42-34 win at TCU.
? SMU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Mustangs have 141 returning starts on offensive line.
? SMU has a soph QB this year; he was a backup at Oklahoma.
? Last three years, SMU is 8-3 ATS as a home favorite.
? SMU won last six series games (4-2 ATS).
? Green Wave is 7-2 ATS in last nine visits to SMU.
? SMU threw for 439 yards in LY?s 37-34 (-6.5) series win.
? Double digit home favorites are 4-2 ATS in AAC this season
Louisiana (5-1) @ Arkansas State (1-5)
? Louisiana won five games in row since a 38-18 loss at Texas.
? Last four games, ULL ran ball for 227.5 yards/game.
? Cajuns road wins; 20-18 win at South Alabama, 28-20 at Ga Southern.
? Cajuns have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Louisiana has 140 returning starts on offensive line.
? Cajuns? senior QB has started 34 games.
? Under Napier, Louisiana is 6-5 ATS as road favorite (0-2 TY).
? Arkansas St is 0-5 vs I-A teams, giving up 51.4 ppg.
? Red Wolves allowed 540+ TY in all five of those games.
? Last three games, ASU allowed 368.3 rushing yards/game.
? Arkansas has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Red Wolves have 149 returning starts on offensive line.
? Arkansas State?s QB started 25 games at Florida State.
? Last five years, Red Wolves are 1-3 ATS as home underdogs.
? ASU scored 33+ points in four of their six games.
? Louisiana won last three series games, by 4-17-4 points.
? Favorites covered last four series games played here.
? Double digit favorites are 4-3 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Florida Atlantic (3-3) @ Charlotte (3-2)
? FAU is 3-0 at home, 0-3 on road, losing by 21-24-17 points.
? Owls ran ball for 200+ yards in wins, 92-141-52 in losses.
? FAU has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Owls have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
? FAU has a junior QB with 15 starts- he used to play at Miami.
? Last 4+ years, Owls are 6-5 ATS as a road favorite.
? In his career, Taggart is 11-7 ATS as a road favorite.
? Charlotte lost 20-9 at Georgia State, 24-14 at Illinois.
? 49ers beat Duke 31-28, MTSU 42-39, both at home.
? 49ers allowed 298+ rushing yards in three of four I-A games.
? Charlotte has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
? 49ers have 29 returning starts on offensive line.
? Charlotte has a junior QB with 29 starts.
? Under Healy, 49ers are 2-1 ATS as a road favorite.
? Underdogs covered last five series games.
? FAU won three of last four series games.
? Owls won last three visits to Charlotte, by 10-19-18 points.
? C-USA road favorites are 6-2 ATS.
San Jose State (3-4) @ UNLV (0-6)
? San Jose lost three of last four games, scoring 3-14-13 in losses.
? Spartans are minus-10 in turnovers this season.
? San Jose outgained San Diego St 345-240 LW, but lost 19-13.
? Spartans have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? San Jose has 112 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Spartans have senior QB with 15 starts- he used to play at Arkansas.
? Last six years, San Jose is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.
? UNLV?s last three losses were all by 8 or fewer points.
? Rebels are giving up 35 ppg against I-A opponents.
? Rebels gave up 440+ TY in five of six games.
? UNLV has 8 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Rebels have 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
? UNLV is shuffling QB?s.
? Under Arroyo, Rebels are 1-4 ATS as a home underdog.
? Teams split last four series games.
? San Jose lost last two trips to Las Vegas, 38-35/41-13
? Favorites are 6-2 ATS last eight series games.
? Mountain West road favorites are 3-4 ATS.
Friday?s games
Middle Tennessee (2-4) @ Connecticut (1-7)
? MTSU is 0-4 on road, giving up 36.3 ppg.
? Blue Raiders ran for 209 yards in 34-28 upset of Marshall.
? They ran for total of 232 yards in their four I-A losses.
? MTSU has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Blue Raiders have 49 returning starts on offensive line.
? MTSU have played pair of junior QB?s.
? Last 6 years, MTSU is 8-6 ATS as a road favorite.
? UConn got its first win LW, 21-15 (+3) over Yale.
? Huskies were underdog to an Ivy League team.
? UConn lost 38-28 to I-AA Holy Cross.
? UConn has 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Huskies have 47 returning starts on offensive line.
? UConn has been playing three QB?s.
? UConn is 7-9 ATS last 16 games as a home underdog.
? These teams haven?t met since 2001.
Memphis (4-3) @ Central Florida (2-2)
? Memphis lost three of last four games, giving up 29.3 ppg.
? Tigers? losses are by 3-3-6 points.
? Memphis gave up 198+ RY in three of last four games.
? Tigers passed for 300+ yards in three of last four games.
? Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Memphis has 104 returning starts on offensive line.
? Memphis has a freshman QB with seven starts.
? Under Silverfield, Memphis is 0-6 ATS on the road.
? UCF lost three of last four games, giving up 37 ppg.
? Knights are 2-0 in I-A home tilts, beating Boise State/East Carolina.
? Knights gave up 330+ rushing yards in two of last three games.
? UCF has 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Knights have a soph QB with 27 career starts.
? Last 2+ years, UCF is 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
? Malzahn is 22-28-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? Memphis (+3) beat UCF 50-49 last year.
? Total yardage was 798-703, UCF.
? UCF won 13 of last 14 series games.
? Last two meetings were both decided by a point.
? Underdogs are 5-3-1 ATS last nine series games.
Colorado State (3-3) @ Utah State (4-2)
? Colorado State won last two games, scoring 32-36 points.
? Rams were outgained only 278-250 in 24-14 loss at Iowa.
? Colorado State held last four opponents under 300 TY.
? Rams have 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? CSU has 91 returning starts on offensive line.
? Rams have a senior QB with seven career starts.
? Colorado State is 11-6 ATS last 17 games as road favorites.
? Under is 4-1 in Colorado State games TY.
? Utah State?s three I-A wins are by 3-4-4 points.
? LW, Aggies scored with 0:35 left to escape winless UNLV 28-24.
? Utah State allowed 219+ rushing yards in 3 of last 4 games.
? Aggies have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Utah State has 69 returning starts on offensive line.
? USU?s QB has 21 career starts- he played at Ark State for coach Anderson.
? Aggies are 2-10 ATS last 12 games as home underdogs.
? These teams didn?t meet last season.
? Utah State won last two series games, 34-24/29-24
? Rams lost three of last four visits to Logan.
? Underdogs are 6-4 ATS in last ten series games.
? Mountain West road favorites are 3-4 ATS.
Washington (2-4) @ Arizona (0-6)
? Washington lost last two weeks, 27-24/24-17.
? Huskies are 0-2 on road; 31-10 at Michigan, 24-17 at Oregon St.
? Washington has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Huskies have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Washington?s QB has 10 career starts.
? Last four years, Huskies are 6-8 ATS as road favorites.
? Under is 4-1 in Washington games.
? Arizona has now lost 18 games in a row.
? Four of Wildcats? I-A losses this year are by 18+ points.
? Last three games, Arizona is minus-7 in turnovers.
? Arizona has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Arizona has 81 returning starts on offensive line.
? Arizona?s freshman QB is 61-93/536 passing (2 TD?s/3 INTs).
? Wildcats are 6-12 ATS last 18 games as an underdog.
? Washington won last four series games, scoring 45 ppg.
? Arizona is 0-5 ATS in last five visits to Seattle.
? Huskies gained 450+ TY in last five series games.
Saturday?s games
Syracuse (3-4) @ Virginia Tech (3-3)
? Syracuse lost last three games, all by three points.
? Syracuse ran ball for 228+ yards in four of last five games.
? Last four Syracuse games were all decided by a FG.
? Orange are 1-1 SU on road (29-9 at Ohio/30-33 at Florida St.)
? Syracuse has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Syracuse has 120 returning starts on offensive line.
? Orange soph QB is a transfer from Mississippi State.
? Under Babers, Syracuse is 15-9 ATS as road underdogs.
? Tech lost last three of its last four games.
? Hokies allowed 10-14-10 points in wins, 27-32-28 in losses.
? Hokies are 10-13 ATS in last 23 home games.
? Tech has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Tech has 106 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Hokies? junior QB has started ten games.
? Under Fuente, Tech is 4-6 ATS as home underdogs.
? These teams haven?t met since 2016.
? ACC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-6 ATS.
Clemson (4-2) @ Pitt (4-1)
? Clemson is 1-1 on road; 21-27 at NC State, 17-14 at Syracuse.
? Tigers are 3-2 in I-A games; wins were by 6-6-3 points.
? Tigers gained 314 or less TY in four of five I-A games.
? Clemson has 5 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Tigers have 37 returning starts on offensive line.
? Clemson?s freshman QB has made 8 starts.
? Clemson is 12-7-1 ATS in last 20 games as a road favorite.
? Average total in Clemson?s I-A games: 29.2.
? Last time Tigers were a regular season underdog: 2016
? Panthers scored 46.3 ppg in its I-A games.
? Pitt is 2-0 on road; 41-34 at Tennessee, 52-21 at Ga Tech.
? Pitt is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 road games.
? Panthers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
? Pitt has 74 returning starts on offensive line.
? Pit?s senior QB has started 41 games.
? Last six years, Panthers are 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
? Clemson won last two series games, 52-17/42-10.
? This is Tigers? first ACC visit to Pittsburgh.
? ACC home favorites of 7 or less points are 1-6 ATS.
Maryland (4-2) @ Minnesota (4-2)
? Maryland lost last two games, giving up 51-66 points.
? Terps threw ball for 330+ yards in its three I-A wins.
? Maryland allowed 428+ TY in its last three games.
? Maryland has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Maryland has 36 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Terrapins have sophomore QB who started 15 games.
? Under Locksley, Maryland is 2-5 ATS as road underdogs.
? Minnesota won 4 of last 5 games; loss was as 30-point favorites.
? Last three years, Gophers are 13-5-1 ATS in conference games.
? Minnesota scored 30+ points in four of six games.
? Minnesota has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Gophers have 182 (yes, 182) returning starts on offensive line.
? Gophers have a junior QB with 32 starts.
? Since 2015, Minnesota is 9-16 ATS as home favorite.
? Maryland gained 675 TY in LY?s 45-44 series win (+20.5)
? Terps won three of five Big 14 meetings with Minnesota.
? Big 14 single digit home favorites are 2-4-1 ATS.
NC State (5-1) @ Miami (2-4)
? State won last three I-A games, beating ACC rivals Clemson, BC.
? Wolfpack was -3 in turnovers in its loss, +6 in its wins.
? Wolfpack has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? NC State has 73 returning starts on offensive line.
? Wolfpack has a soph QB this year, with 15 starts.
? Last 2+ years, NC State is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite (0-2 TY).
? Miami lost its last two games by total of five points.
? ?canes only I-A win was 25-23 over Appalachian State.
? Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Miami has 190 returning starts on offensive line.
? Hurricanes have been playing a freshman backup QB.
? Four of their five games stayed under the total.
? Miami is home underdog for first time in four years.
? Miami won last three series games.
? Miami (-10) gained 620 TY in LY?s 44-41 win over NC State.
? Teams split two series games played here.
Utah (4-2) @ Oregon State (4-2)
? Utah won last three games, scoring 33.7 ppg.
? Utes gave up 219-204 YR in their two losses.
? Utah is giving up 28.3 ppg on road, 17 ppg at home.
? Utah has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Utes have 99 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Utah has soph quarterback with 5 starts.
? Utah is 25-11-1 ATS in last 37 road games.
? Oregon State won four of its last five games.
? Beavers ran ball for 242+ yards in each of last five games.
? Oregon State is 4-0 if it allows less than 30 points.
? Beavers have 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? OSU has 86 returning starts on offensive line.
? OSU?s sophomore QB has 9 career starts.
? Under Smith, Beavers are 3-9-1 ATS as home underdogs.
? Utah won last five series games (1-3 ATS last four)
? Favorites are 4-1 ATS in last five series games played here.
? Pac-12 road favorites are 4-2 ATS.
Oregon (5-1) @ UCLA (5-2)
? Oregon split two road games, 35-28 Ohio State/24-31 Stanford.
? Ducks were +12 in turnovers first four games, minus-3 last two.
? Oregon ran ball for 228/210 yards.
? Three of Oregon?s four I-A wins were by 7 points.
? Ducks have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
? Oregon has 36 returning starts on offensive line.
? Oregon?s QB has 34 career starts, 28 at Boston College.
? Last six years, Ducks are 3-7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
? Under is 4-1 in Oregon games this season.
? UCLA gave up 40-42 points in losses, 27 or less in wins.
? UCLA was held under 200 YR in both its losses.
? Last two weeks, Bruins ran for 329/237 yards.
? Bruins lost last two home games, to Fresno St/Arizona St.
? UCLA has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Bruins have 73 returning starts on the offensive line.
? UCLA?s junior QB is making his 30th career start.
? Under Kelly, Bruins are 3-8 ATS as home favorites.
? Chip Kelly Bowl; Kelly coached Oregon (46-7) from 2009-12.
? Oregon won eight of last nine series games.
? Ducks won five of last seven visits to Pasadena.
? UCLA outgained Oregon 462-422 LY, but lost 38-35 in Eugene.
West Virginia (2-4) @ TCU (3-3)
? West Virginia is 1-4 vs I-A teams, losing by 6-3-3-25 points.
? WVU gave up 354 PY in LW?s 45-20 loss at Baylor.
? Four of WVU?s five I-A games stayed under the total.
? Mountaineers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? WVU has 54 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Mountaineers have junior QB with 37 career starts.
? West Virginia is 8-6 ATS last 14 games as road dogs.
? TCU gave up 1,066 RY, 49.3 ppg in losing 3 of last 4 games.
? Horned Frogs gave up 37.8 ppg in their five I-A games.
? TCU lost last two home games, 42-34 to SMU, 32-27 to Texas.
? Frogs gained 431+ yards in four of five I-A games.
? TCU has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
? TCU has a soph QB this year, with 25 starts.
? Last six years, TCU is 6-18-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? West Virginia won last three series games, giving up 11 ppg.
? Mountaineers won/covered three of four visits to TCU.
Oklahoma State (6-0) @ Iowa State (3-2)
? OSU is 2-0 on road, 21-20 in Boise (+3.5), 32-24 at Texas (+3.5).
? Cowboys outgained first three Big X foes by 142.7 yards/game.
? Last two games, OSU ran ball for 218-220 yards.
? Cowboys have 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? OSU has 103 returning starts on offensive line.
? Cowboys? soph QB has started 25 games.
? OSU is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 road games.
? Iowa State lost 27-17 to Iowa, 31-29 at Baylor, beat three stiffs.
? ISU ran ball for 506 yards in last two games.
? Cyclones have 11 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? ISU has 93 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Cyclones have a junior QB this year, with 37 starts.
? Under Campbell, ISU is 7-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
? Oklahoma State won 8 of last 9 series games.
? Cowboys won last four visits to Ames.
? Iowa State gained 448+ TY in four of last five meetings.
Wisconsin (3-3) @ Purdue (4-2)
? Wisconsin is 0-3 when it allows more than 14 points.
? Badgers are already minus-11 in turnovers.
? Badgers won last two games, but against lesser foes.
? Wisconsin won only true road game, 24-0 at Illinois.
? Badgers have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Wisconsin has 59 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Wisconsin has a freshman QB, with 12 starts- he is struggling.
? Last 6+ years, Badgers are 17-6 ATS as road favorites.
? Boilers scored exactly 13 points in three of last four games.
? Last two weeks, Purdue threw ball for 371/378 yards.
? Purdue held first three Big 14 opponents under 300 TY.
? Boilers have 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Purdue has 96 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Junior QB O?Connell threw for 375 yards LW.
? Under Brohm, Boilers are 7-4 ATS as home underdogs.
? Wisconsin won last 14 series games (13-3 ATS last 16)
? Underdogs covered four of last five series games.
? These teams didn?t meet last season.
LSU (4-3) @ Ole Miss (5-1)
? LSU coach Orgeron got fired Sunday, will finish season.
? Last four games, Tigers gave up 475.5 yards/game.
? LSU ran for 321 yards in last week?s 49-42 win over Florida.
? Tigers are 4-0 if they score 28+ points, 0-3 if they don?t.
? LSU has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Tigers have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
? LSU?s junior QB has made ten starts.
? Under Orgeron, Tigers are 7-1 ATS as road underdogs.
? Ole Miss QB Corral is banged up (check status).
? Rebels gave up 39.7 ppg in last three games.
? Ole Miss scored 61-52 points in its two I-A home games.
? Rebels have 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Ole Miss has 64 returning starts on offensive line.
? Rebels? soph QB has started 20 games.
? Last four years, Ole Miss is 7-5 ATS as home favorite.
? In his career, Kiffin is 26-21-2 ATS as a home favorite.
? LSU won last five series games, scoring 58-53 in last two.
? Teams split last six meetings played here.
? Ole Miss ran for 307-402 yards last two meetings, but lost both.
San Diego State (6-0) @ Air Force (6-1)
? San Diego State scored 29.9 ppg in its five I-A wins.
? Aztecs were outgained 345-240 in LW?s 19-13 win in San Jose.
? Aztecs ran ball for 200+ yards in four of five I-A games.
? San Diego State has 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? Aztecs have 65 returning starts on offensive line.
? San Diego State has a junior QB with 8 starts.
? Aztecs are 6-2-1 ATS last nine games as road underdogs.
? Air Force ran for 340.8 ypg in its four MW games.
? Falcons? one loss was 49-45 (-9) at home to Utah State.
? Last four games, Air Force has a +6 turnover margin.
? Falcons have 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
? Air Force has only 3 returning starts on offensive line.
? Falcons have junior QB this year, with 13 starts.
? Air Force is 7-3 ATS last ten games as home favorites.
? San Diego State won last eight series games.
? Last three series games were all decided by 4 or less points.
? Aztecs won/covered last three visits to Air Force.
USC (3-3) @ Notre Dame (5-1)
? USC gave up 42-45-42 points in its losses, all at home.
? Trojans gained 431+ TY in their last four games.
? USC is 2-0 on road (45-14 at Wazzu/37-14 at Colorado).
? USC has an interim coach right now.
? Trojans have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
? USC has 75 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Trojans have a soph QB with 22 career starts.
? USC is 4-13 ATS last 17 games as a road underdog.
? Notre Dame has three wins this year by exactly 3 points.
? First four games, ND was +6 in turnovers; they?re minus-1 in last two.
? Notre Dame has 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
? Notre Dame has 62 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Notre Dame has been using two QB?s; they?ve been sacked 24 times.
? Last 3+ years, Notre Dame is 9-5-1 ATS on the road.
? Notre Dame won last three meetings, by 35-3-7 points.
? USC covered once in last four visits to South Bend.
? These teams didn?t play last season.
Nevada (5-1) @ Fresno State (5-2)
? Nevada won last three games, scoring 43.3 ppg.
? Last two games, Wolf Pack threw ball for 463-395 yards.
? Nevada?s only loss was 38-17 at Kansas State.
? Nevada has 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Wolf Pack has 63 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Nevada?s soph QB has 25 career starts.
? Wolf Pack is 10-12 ATS in last 20 games as road dog (2-0 TY).
? Fresno is 2-0 SU at home vs I-A teams, but two terrible teams.
? Bulldogs threw for 378+ yards in four of last five games.
? Fresno was +5 in turnovers LW; they were minus-5 week before.
? Fresno has 9 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
? Bulldogs have 51 returning starts on the offensive line.
? Fresno?s QB has 17 career starts.
? Bulldogs are 3-6 ATS last nine games as home faves.
? Nevada won last two meetings, 37-26/35-28.
? Wolf Pack covered five of last seven visits to Fresno.
? Bulldogs gained 599 yards in LY?s 37-26 loss in Reno.
