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[Cnotes53]

I don't know how to fix UCLA​

The news that UCLA fired DeShaun Foster shouldn't have been much of a surprise when it came down on Sunday. The Bruins were not only off to an 0-3 start, but lost at home to New Mexico 35-10 in a buy game. It was also their second loss to a Mountain West team in as many weeks, with both losses coming off an embarrassing performance against Utah in the season-opener.

Foster never had a chance to succeed. He took over in mid-February 2024 after a series of unexpected dominoes led to an opening. Then, Boston College coach Jeff Hafley left to become the defensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers, which opened the door for Ohio State offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien to take the Boston College job. That gave Chip Kelly the chance to abandon what he felt was a sinking ship, making the unprecedented move of leaving his position as a P4 head coach to become the offensive coordinator of a school in the same conference.

It's a choice that looks wise in retrospect. Kelly won a natty at Ohio State and parlayed that into a return to the NFL, where he's now running the Las Vegas Raiders offense.

So there was Foster taking over a program late in the process after a hiring cycle that didn't seem very appealing. The former UCLA running back had spent time as a grad assistant and running backs coach with the Bruins (as well as one season in the same role at Texas Tech in 2016) before being elevated to head coach out of necessity.

He took over a program with serious financial problems (problems that helped lead UCLA to the Big Ten in the first place, and hampered the school's ability to attract a more proven option), and while those financials have likely improved somewhat thanks to some of that Big Ten revenue, they certainly aren't solved completely.

So now UCLA is in the same position it found itself when it hired Foster. An open job that's likely not as attractive as those in charge think. I have no clue how UCLA digs itself out of this mess, or how long it'll take to do so.

 

[Cnotes53]

Big Red breakthrough: Nebraska looks to end a near decade of misery with a Week 4 win over Michigan​

Could the stars finally be aligned for Nebraska to snap a 27-game losing streak vs. ranked opponents?​

Nebraska's last win over a ranked opponent came against No. 22 Oregon in 2016, amid a 7-0 start that saw the Cornhuskers rise all the way to No. 7 in the AP poll. Not even the boldest of Nebraska's haters would have predicted what was coming.

Following that momentous start to the 2016 campaign, the Cornhuskers are 37-62 and have dropped 27 in a row against ranked foes. It marks one of the most stunning falls from a traditional power in college football history.

But the light at the end of tunnel has never been closer than it is now. The 3-0 Cornhuskers host No. 21 Michigan Saturday afternoon on CBS in a breakthrough opportunity for a success-starved program.

As just a 2.5-point underdog, Nebraska wouldn't be shocking the world by taking down the Wolverines, which is exactly why it's such a big opportunity. The Cornhuskers are on a clear upward trajectory under third-year coach Matt Rhule after reaching a bowl game for the first time since 2016 last season. They just need a marquee victory to validate it.

Taking down a massive national brand in front of a sold-out crowd in a prime TV slot would check the box. A win over the Wolverines would send Nebraska stock skyrocketing entering what appears to be a manageable Big Ten slate.

The Cornhuskers do not play No. 1 Ohio State, No. 6 Oregon, No. 9 Illinois or No. 19 Indiana. After Michigan, there are no ranked opponents on the schedule until November, when the Cornhuskers host No. 25 USC and travel to No. 2 Penn State.

A win on Saturday would catapult the Cornhuskers into the College Football Playoff conversation, much in the same way that a Week 4 victory over Illinois might have raised Nebraska's national profile last season.

The circumstances were eerily similar as the 3-0 Cornhuskers hosted the No. 24 Illini. But an all-too-familiar heartache ensued as Nebraska relinquished a fourth-quarter lead and fell 31-24 in overtime to an Illinois team led by veteran quarterback Luke Altmyer.

Nebraska, in Year 2 under Rhule, wasn't quite ready yet, with freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola still learning on the job in high-leverage situations.

The tables have turned this time around. Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood will be making his Big Ten debut, and Raiola is no longer a newbie. The former five-star prospect has completed 76.6% of his passes with eight touchdowns and no interceptions through three games.

While the last two opponents — Akron and Houston Baptist — were patsies, Nebraska showed some grit in a Week 1 win over Cincinnati as Raiola completed 33 of 42 passes for 243 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Raiola's command of the Nebraska offense under coordinator Dana Holgorsen gives the Cornhuskers a chance against a talented but imperfect Michigan defense. Oklahoma offered a blueprint in Week 2 for how a playmaking quarterback can keep the Wolverines off balance.

Michigan will also be dealing with the absence of head coach Sherrone Moore, who will be serving the second game of a three-game suspension stemming from a violation of NCAA rules tied to the program's 2023 sign-stealing scandal.

The Wolverines were fine without Moore in a win over Central Michigan last week and should be able to handle business in the third game of his suspension next season against Western Michigan. Moore's absence for the Nebraska showdown is the true pain point for the Wolverines, who will be led by interim coach Biff Poggi.

The stars have perhaps never been more aligned than they are now for Nebraska.

Even with a loss, the 2025 season can still be one of progress for the program. But Saturday's opportunity is unique.

The long-suffering Cornhuskers can shed nearly a decade of misery against ranked teams while announcing their legitimacy to the Big Ten and the rest of college football.

Nebraska's 1995 national championship team will be honored on the field during the game. But the most fitting tribute would be a victory over Michigan that illustrates how the glory days are finally on the way back.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
NFL spreads for Week 3:
— Broncos @ LA Chargers (-2.5)
— Saints @ Seattle (-7.5)
— Cardinals @ San Francisco (-1.5)
— Cowboys @ Chicago (-1.5)
— Chiefs (-6.5) @ NJ Giants
— Lions @ Baltimore (-4.5)

Quote of the Day
“I have no regrets, because I’ve done everything I could to the best of my ability.”
Robert Redford

Wednesday’s quiz
Robert Redford played Roy Hobbs in The Natural; what number did Roy Hobbs wear for the New York Knights?

Tuesday’s quiz
LA/San Diego Chargers have played in one Super Bowl; Stan Humphries was their quarterback in that game.

Monday’s quiz
Rangers’ manager Bruce Bochy was catcher for three different teams; he played the most for San Diego, playing for the Padres in the 1984 World Series.

*********************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Trends for every major league team…….​

Trends for every major league team
(thru Tuesday’s games)

— Arizona (77-75)
Arizona won five of its last seven games.
Diamondbacks are 19-27 in one-run games.
Arizona is 25-20 vs NL West foes, 52-55 vs everyone else.
Over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

— Braves (69-83)
Braves won their last four games.
Atlanta is 36-39 at home, 33-44 on the road.
Braves are 27-21 vs NL East rivals, 42-62 vs everyone else.
Under is 12-5-1 in their last 18 games.

— Cubs (87-64)
Chicago is 6-1 in its last seven games.
Cubs are holding #1 Wild Card slot in NL
Under is 7-1-1 in their last nine road games.
Cubs are 68-44 vs righty starters, 19-20 vs lefties.

— Reds (75-76)
Cincinnati lost four of its last five games.
Reds are 56-53 vs righty starters, 19-23 vs lefties.
Under is 7-3-1 in their last 10 road games.
Reds are three games out of the NL’s last Wild Card slot.

— Rockies (41-110)
Colorado lost 13 of its last 15 games.
Over is 5-2 in Rockies’ last seven games.
Rockies are 7-33 vs lefty starters, 34-77 vs righties.
Colorado scored first inning run in only one of last 37 road games.

— Dodgers (84-67)
Dodgers won six of their last nine games.
LA leads San Diego by two games in NL West.
Dodgers are 62-44 vs righty starters, 22-23 vs lefties.
Over is 6-1 in their last seven games.

— Marlins (71-80)
Marlins are 5-1 in their last six games.
Miami is 36-42 at home, 35-38 on the road.
Over is 6-2 in Marlins’ last eight games.
Marlins are 52-55 vs righty starters, 19-25 vs lefties.

— Brewers (92-59)
Brewers are 13-14 in their last 27 games.
Milwaukee is 49-27 at home, 43-32 on the road.
Over is 20-8-2 in their last 30 home games.
Milwaukee has clinched a playoff spot; they lead NL Central. By 5 games

— Mets (78-73)
Mets are 2-8 in their last ten games.
Mets are 47-29 at home, 31-44 on the road.
Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.
Mets lead Arizona by 1.5 games for last NL Wild Card slot.

— Phillies (91-61)
Phillies are 15-4 in their last 19 games.
Phillies are 68-38 vs righty starters, 23-23 vs lefties.
Over is 8-0 in their last eight games.
Phillies have clinched the NL East.

— Pirates (65-87)
Pirates lost 10 of their last 11 games.
Pittsburgh is 42-35 at home, 23-52 on the road.
Under is 9-2 in their last 11 games.
Pirates are 51-68 vs righty starters, 14-19 vs lefties.

— St Louis (74-78)
St Louis is 2-6 in its last eight games.
Cardinals scored in first inning in only two of last 27 home games.
St Louis is 42-35 at home, 32-43 on the road.
Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

— Padres (82-69)
San Diego is 6-8 in its last 14 games.
Padres are 47-28 at home, 35-41 on the road.
Padres are 59-46 vs righty starters, 23-23 vs lefties.
San Diego have a 4-game for the #2 Wild Card slot in NL.

— Giants (75-76)
Giants lost five of their last six games.
Giants are 59-49 vs righty pitchers, 16-27 vs lefties.
Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
SF is three games out of the NL’s last Wild Card slot.

— Washington (62-90)
Nationals are 2-6 in their last eight games.
Washington is 46-62 vs righty starters, 16-28 vs lefties.
Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.
Nationals are 21-16 in one-run games.

— Famous birthdays, September 17th:
Phil Jackson, 80
Junior Bridgeman, 72
John Franco, 65
Anthony Carter, 65
Kyle Chandler, 60
Rasheed Wallace, 52
Dan Haren, 45
Marcus Semien, 35
José Ramírez, 33
Patrick Mahomes, 30
Brandon Sproat, 25
James Wood, 23

— Orioles (71-80)
Baltimore won 10 of its last 14 games.
Orioles are 51-57 vs vs righty starters, 20-23 vs lefties.
Under is 11-0 in their last eleven home games.
Orioles are 19-23 vs AL East rivals, 52-57 vs everyone else.

— Red Sox (82-69)
Red Sox are 1-4 in their last five games.
Boston is 45-31 at home, 37-38 on road.
Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Red Sox have 2.5-game lead for last AL Wild Card slot.

— White Sox (57-95)
Chicago lost five of its last seven games.
White Sox are 32-45 at home, 25-50 on the road.
Under is 5-1 in their last six games.
Chicago is 42-74 vs righty starters, 15-21 vs lefties.

— Cleveland (79-71)
Cleveland is 10-1 in its last 11 games.
Guardians are 2.5 games out of the AL’s last Wild Card slot.
Guardians are 61-47 vs righty starters, 18-24 vs lefties.
Under is 11-2 in their last thirteen games.

— Detroit (85-66)
Detroit is 7-13 in its last 20 games.
Tigers are 29-18 vs its AL Central rivals, lead division by 5.5 games.
Over is 10-3 in their last thirteen games.
Detroit is 20-9 in one-run games.

— Houston (83-69)
Astros are 5-2 in their last seven games.
Astros are 12-19 in their last 31 home games.
Astros trail Seattle by half a game in AL West.
Over is 6-0 in their last six home games.

— Royals (75-76)
Royals are 11-15 in their last 26 games.
Kansas City is 58-64 vs righty starters, 17-12 vs lefties.
Over is 4-0 in Royals’ last four games.
Royals scored in first inning in 14 of last 24 home games.

— Angels (69-82)
Angels lost 20 of their last 30 games.
Over is 8-3 in their last eleven games.
Angels are 58-67 vs righty starters, 11-15 vs lefties.
Angels are in last place in AL West ($206M payroll)

— Twins (66-85)
Twins lost 22 of their last 33 games.
Minnesota is 37-39 at home, 29-46 on the road.
Over is 13-4 in their last 17 home games.
Twins are 2-9 in last 11 games where winning run scored from 7th inning on.

— New York (84-67)
New York is 8-7 in its last 15 games.
Over is 11-5 in their last 16 road games.
New York is 68-51 vs righty starters, 16-16 vs lefties.
Right now, New York has the #1 Wild Card slot in AL.

— A’s (71-80)
A’s have won their last five games.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
A’s are 53-65 vs righty starters, 18-15 vs lefties.
A’s are 9-4 in extra innings this season.

— Seattle (83-68)
Mariners won their last 10 games, scoring 78 runs.
Seattle is 33-10 in its last 43 home games.
Over is 10-4 in their last fourteen games.
Seattle leads Houston by half a game in AL West.

— Tampa Bay (73-78)
Tampa Bay lost five of its last six games.
Rays are 38-38 at home, 35-40 on the road.
Over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games.
Rays are 7-13 in last 20 games where winning run scored from 7th inning on.

— Texas (79-73)
Rangers lost their last three games.
Texas is 3.5 games out of the AL’s last Wild Card slot.
Texas is 62-51 vs righty starters, 17-22 vs lefties
Rangers are 47-28 at home, 32-45 on road.

— Toronto (89-62)
Blue Jays are 11-4 in their last 15 games.
Blue Jays won 25 of their last 34 home games.
Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
Toronto leads New York/Boston by three games in AL East.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
College football spreads for Week 3:
% of teams’ running plays that didn’t gain any yards:
37.1%— Raiders
32%— Seahawks
31.3%— Giants
31.3%— Chargers
28.6%— Dolphins
24%— 49ers

Quote of the Day
“Be yourself; everyone else is already taken.”
Oscar Wilde

Thursday’s quiz
Who was the first player in major league history to hit 40 home runs and steal 30 bases in the same season?

Wednesday’s quiz
Robert Redford played Roy Hobbs in The Natural; Roy Hobbs wore number 9 for the New York Knights.

Tuesday’s quiz
LA/San Diego Chargers have played in one Super Bowl; Stan Humphries was their quarterback in that game.

*********************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud….​

— The great actor Robert Redford passed away earlier this week at age 89; what a tremendous career he had, both as an actor and behind the scenes, as a producer/director.
I’m not 100% sure of this, but I think Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid was the first movie I ever saw in a movie theater. Long time ago.
Redford later created the Sundance Institute, a non-profit that supports independent film and theater and is known for its annual Sundance Film Festival.
What an epic career; he will be missed.
RIP, sir.

— My favorite Robert Redford movies:
Up Close and Personal
The Natural
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid
The Candidate
Three Days of the Condor
All the President’s Men

— Well-known actors who were also in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid, along with Redford and Paul Newman:
Cloris Leachman, Ted Cassidy (Lurch in the Addams Family) and Sam Elliott.

— Former big league pitcher Ron Darling is one of the best, if not the best, color analysts on major league games. He works mainly on Mets’ games.
He was talking the other night about playing in the minor leagues, why they’re important.
“You learn how to win, but you also learn how to lose, and that is important.”

— Salvador Perez had a pretty good night recently; his 300th career home run gave him his 1,000th career RBI. Perez is a future Hall of Famer.

— Arkansas Razorbacks unveiled their non-conference basketball schedule for the coming season; they’re playing all eight teams who were in last spring’s Elite 8. Playing such a tough schedule is an indication that John Calipari thinks he has a really good team.

— Over the last 55 years, only one NFL team has started a season 2-0, with both wins coming on last-minute touchdowns; the 2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

— Jets’ QB Justin Fields (concussion) is out for this week’s game in Tampa; Tyrod Taylor will get the start. Taylor is 28-29-1 as an NFL starter, playing for seven different teams in 15 years.

— Famous birthdays, September 18th:
Billy Gambrell, 84
Jeff Bostic, 67
Toni Kukoč, 57
Aisha Tyler, 55
Jason Sudekis, 50
Serge Ibaka, 36
Kevin Dotson, 29
Ceddanne Rafaela, 25
The great actor Jack Warden was born on this day in 1920.

— Pretty cool scene before the Mets’ game the other night; Francisco Lindor’s wife Katia played the national anthem on her violin, with their three kids standing nearby on the field.

— Cubs 8, Pirates 4
Cubs clinch their first playoff berth since 2020.
Ian Happ homered, drove in three runs.
Cubs have won seven of their last eight games.

— Giants 5, Diamondbacks 1 (11)
Brandon Pfaadt allowed one hit in nine shutout IP for Arizona.
Giants end a 4-game skid; they’re 2 games out of the last playoff spot.
Justin Verlander allowed three hits in his 7 IP.

— Padres 7, Mets 4
Manny Machado broke a 2-2 tie with a fifth inning grand slam.
Mets lead Arizona by 1.5 games for the last playoff spot.
Juan Soto hit his 41st home run for the Mets.

— Guardians 4, Tigers 0
Cleveland creeps to within 4.5 games of the first-place Tigers.
Guardians have won 11 of their last 12 games.
Gavin Williams allowed three hits in 5 IP.

— Royals 7, Mariners 5
Royals scored four runs in the 8th, broke Seattle’s 10-game win streak.
Adam Frazier’s two-run home run was the game-winning hit.
Mariners fall a half-game behind Houston in the AL West race.

— Astros 5, Rangers 2
Jeremy Pena homered, doubled for Houston.
Jose Altuve hit a two-run homer.
Cristian Javier allowed five hits in six IP, got the win.

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start week after next):
NL: Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards: Cubs, Padres, Mets
AL: Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros. Wild Cards: New York, Red Sox, Mariners

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Thursday, September 18

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Thursday’s game
Rice (-1.5) @ Charlotte
Rice (2-1)
Rice won 14-12 (+10) at Louisiana, lost 35-9 to Houston.
Owls ran ball for 206-177 yards in their two I-A games.
Rice has 3 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Owls have 56 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jenkins has run for 152 yards, thrown for 182 in three games.


Last five years, Rice is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Owls’ new coach was 47-28 at I-AA Davidson.
Rice is 10-6 ATS in last 16 conference games.
Owls are 13-10 ATS last 23 games coming off a win.


Charlotte (1-2)
Charlotte lost 34-11/20-3 in its I-A games.
49ers were held to 76-21 rushing yards in those games.
Charlotte has 2 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
49ers have 100 returning starts on OL, mostly transfers.
Junior QB Harrell started three games at North Carolina


Charlotte beat a I-AA team 42-35 last week.
Since 2021, 49ers are 4-12 ATS as a home underdog.
Charlotte is 3-14-1 ATS in its last 18 home games.
Charlotte is 12-11-1 ATS in last 24 conference games.
49ers are 5-10 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.


Charlotte won three of last four series games.
Road team won four of last six meetings SU.
Under is 4-2 in last six series games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday, September 18​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
RICE at CHAR	07:30 PM	CHAR +2.5 O 42.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

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09/11/2025.........1 - 1 - 0................50.00%...........- 0.50
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**********************************

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TOTALS................................5 - 1 - 1 ........................83.33%.........................+ 19.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
QB’s with most passing yards, thru Week 2:
618— Russell Wilson, NJG
588— Daniel Jones, Minn
560— Justin Herbert, LAC
559— Jared Goff, Det
549— Dak Prescott, Dal
543— Matthew Stafford, Rams

Thought of the Day
If you want people to speak kindly about you after you’re gone, then you should speak kindly while you’re alive.

Friday’s quiz
Who was the QB for the Buffalo Bills, the year before they drafted Josh Allen?

Thursday’s quiz
Henry Aaron was the first player in major league history to hit 40+ home runs and steal 30+ bases in the same season.

Wednesday’s quiz
Robert Redford played Roy Hobbs in The Natural; Roy Hobbs wore number 9 for the New York Knights.

*****************************************

Friday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….​

— Bills 31, Dolphins 21
Buffalo won its first three games,. scoring 41-30-31 points.
Bills ran ball 27 times for 157 yards (5.8 yards/carry)
Buffalo outgained the Dolphins, 360-277.
Bills won five in row, 13 of last 14 series games.
Game was 14-14 at halftime.
Miami converted 10 of 15 third down plays; it wasn’t enough.
Dolphins lost their first three games, giving up 33-33-31 points.
Miami is minus-5 in turnovers in its three games.

— Rice 28, Charlotte 17
Rice is 3-1 for the first time since 2001.
Owls led 14-9 at halftime.
Rice ran the ball 46 times for 255 yards (5.5 yards/carry).
Charlotte threw for 259 yards, converted 8-18 on third down.

— Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw is going to retire after this season, his 18th season in the major leagues. Kershaw is 222-96, 2.54 in his career; he’s led the league in ERA five times, also won three Cy Young awards.

— Seattle 3B Eugenio Suarez went 4-for-4 for the Mariners in Kansas City Tuesday, snapping an 0-for-32 skid. This year, he is hitting .096 in 23 games in T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Kind of hard to visualize him signing with the Mariners as a free agent this winter.

— June 11-15th, Reds’ SS Elly De La Cruz homered in four straight games; since June 24th, he has hit one home run, in 297 at-bats. Is he playing hurt?

— Minnesota Twins eliminated their four-person pro scouting department this week; teams are trending towards video-based scouting.

— Tennessee Titans are the only NFL team that doesn’t have a play of 30+ yards in their first two games.

— Famous birthdays, September 19th:
David Ray, 81
Randolph Mantooth, 80
Larry Brown, 78 (Redskins’ RB)
Nat Moore, 74
Dan Hampton, 68
Phil Stephenson, 65
Jim Abbott, 58
Jimmy Fallon, 51
Nick Johnson, 47
Gio Gonzalez, 40
Ryan Succop, 39
George Springer, 36
CJ McCollum, 34
Dejounte Murray, 29

— Guardians 3, Tigers 1
Jose Ramirez hit a 2-run homer in the 7th inning.
Cleveland has won 12 of its last 13 games.
Detroit has lost six of its last seven games.
Tigers’ lead in AL Central is down to 3.5 games.

— Reds 1, Cubs 0
Hunter Greene threw a complete game one-hitter.
Reds are within two games of the Mets for the last Wild Card slot.

— Mets 6, Padres 1
Pete Alonso homered for the fourth game in a row.
Juan Soto got his 100th RBI of the season.

— Mariners 2, Royals 0
Luis Castillo allowed three hits in his six IP.
Seattle/Houston are tied for first in the AL West.

— Rays 4, Blue Jays 0
Shane Baz pitched five scoreless IP for Tampa Bay.
Chandler Simpson had three hits, for second game in a row.
Toronto’s magic number to clinch the AL East is 3.

— A’s 5, Red Sox 3
Brent Rooker hit his 30th home run for the A’s.
Red Sox have lost five of their last seven games.
Red Sox lead Cleveland by 1.5 games for the last Wild Card slot.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Friday, September 19

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Friday’s games
Tulsa @ Oklahoma State (-13.5)
Tulsa (1-2)
Tulsa lost its I-A games, 21-14/42-23.
Tulsa beat a I-AA team, 35-7.
Navy ran for 367 yards in LW’s 42-23 Navy win.
Tulsa has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Hurricane has 25 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Hayes is 36-54/324 passing this year.

Tulsa is 4-5-2 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
New coach Lamb was 27-25 as a FCS head coach.
Since 2017, Tulsa is 15-15-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Tulsa is 7-16 ATS in last 23 games coming off a loss.
AAC road dogs are 5-3 ATS in non-conference games.

Oklahoma State (1-1)
OSU was outgained 631-211 in a 69-3 loss at Oregon LW.
Ducks ran ball for 312 yards, threw it for 319 yards.
Cowboys beat a I-AA team 27-7
Cowboys have 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Cowboys have 56 returning starts on OL, mostly transfers.
OSU center Carpenter played for Tulsa last year.
Soph QB Flores is 20-39/203 passing this year.

Since start of last year, Cowboys are 4-10 SU.
Last 2 years, Oklahoma State is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Last year, Cowboys were 1-7 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Since 2016, Oklahoma State is 24-10 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Big X home favorites are 5-5 ATS in non-league games.

Oklahoma State won last ten series games (5-2 ATS last seven)
Tulsa is 0-6 SU/3-3 ATS in last six visits to Stillwater.
Under is 3-0-1 in last four meetings.

Iowa (-1.5) @ Rutgers
Iowa (2-1)
Iowa beat two cruddy teams, 34-7/47-7.
Hawkeyes lost only road game 16-13 at Iowa State.
Hawkeyes have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Hawkeyes have 85 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Gronowski started 55 games at I-AA South Dakota State.

Iowa hasn’t had a losing season since 2012.
Since 2015, Hawkeyes are 19-8-1 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Ferentz is 33-24-1 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2018, Iowa is 14-11-2 ATS in conference games.
Iowa is 22-17-1 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.

Rutgers (3-0)
Rutgers won its I-A games, 34-31/45-17, both vs MAC teams.
Ohio U ran ball for 201 yards in the season opener.
Rutgers spanked a I-AA team 60-10 last week.
Scarlet Knights have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
Rutgers has 106 starts back on offensive line.
Soph QB Kaliakmanis has 25 career starts.

Since 2019, Scarlet Knights are 5-15-1 ATS as a home dog.
In his college career, Schiano is 21-24-1 ATS as a home dog.
Since 2021, Rutgers is 14-19-3 ATS in Big 18 games.
Rutgers is 10-1-3 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.

Iowa is 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS against Rutgers, with two shutouts.
Three of the four games stayed under the total.
Hawkeyes won 27-10/14-7 in two visits to the Garden State

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 4

Saturday’s best games
Texas Tech @ Utah (-3.5)
Texas Tech (3-0)
Texas Tech won its I-A games, 62-14/45-14, both at home.
Tech threw for 815 yards in those two games.
Red Raiders have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
Red Raiders have 138 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Morton has started 20 games


Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 5-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under McGuire, Tech is 15-11-1 ATS in conference games.
Under McGuire, Tech is 8-12-1 in games coming off a win.


Utah (3-0)
Utah won 43-10 at UCLA, 31-6 at Wyoming.
Utes ran for 597 yards in those two games.
Utes have 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Utah has 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Dampier started 12 games at New Mexico.


Since 2017, Utah is 26-14 ATS as a home favorite.
Overall, Whittingham is 53-44-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2016, Utes are 50-31 ATS in conference games.


This is teams’ first meeting since 1973.

SMU @ TCU (-6.5)
SMU (2-1)
SMU lost 48-45 at home to Baylor, won 28-10 at Missouri State
Baylor threw for 440 yards against SMU.
Mustangs have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mustangs have 117 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Jennings started 13 times the last two years.


Mustangs were 11-3/11-3 the last two years.
Under Lashlee, Mustangs are 2-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Lashlee, Mustangs are 16-10 ATS in conference games.
ACC non-conference underdogs are 3-5 ATS this year.


TCU (2-0)
Horned Frogs won 48-14 at North Carolina, beat I-AA team 42-21.
TCU has 6 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 93 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Hoover started 19 games the last two years.


Under Dykes, TCU is 9-8 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Dykes is 30-25 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Dykes, Frogs are 7-6 ATS in non-league games.
Big X non-league favorites are 9-8 ATS, 5-5 at home.


Local rivals split their last six meetings.
SMU is 2-4 SU/3-2-1 ATS in last six visits to TCU.
Over is 12-4 in last 16 series games.


Auburn @ Oklahoma (-7.5)
Auburn (3-0)
Auburn scored 38-42-31 points in its three wins.
Auburn has 9 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 140 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB started 10 games for Oklahoma.


Tigers have run the ball for 242 yards/game.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 3-4 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Freeze is 19-10 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 8-8 ATS in conference games.
Under Freeze, Auburn is 3-10 ATS in games coming off a win.


Oklahoma (3-0)
Oklahoma won its I-A games 24-13 (Michigan), 42-3 (Temple)
Sooners gained 408-515 yards in the two games.
Oklahoma has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Matter started 12 games for Wazzu last year.


Under Venables, Oklahoma is 12-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Overall under Venables, Sooners are 16-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 10-15-1 ATS in conference games.
Under Venables, Oklahoma is 10-13-1 ATS in games coming off a win..


Oklahoma (+1.5) won 27-21 at Auburn LY.
Sooners won despite being outgained, 482-291.
That was teams first meeting since 2016.


Michigan (-1.5) @ Nebraska
Michigan (2-1)
Michigan lost its only road game, 24-13 at Oklahoma.
Michigan beat New Mexico 34-17, Central Michigan 63-3.
Wolverines have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Michigan has 77 returning starts on offensive line.
Frosh QB Underwood threw for 628 yards in his three games.


Former Charlotte coach Poggi is Michigan’s coach today.
Since 2021, Michigan is 8-4-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2021, Michigan is 20-12-1 ATS in conference games.
Wolverines ran ball for 201/381 games in their wins.


Nebraska (3-0)
Nebraska beat Cincinnati 20-17, Akron 68-0
Last year was their first winning season since 2016.
Cornhuskers have 10 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Nebraska has 131 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Raiola started 13 games LY (2,819 yards (13 TDs, 11 INTs)


In his career, Rhule is 31-25-1 ATS in home games.
Since 2017, Nebraska is 6-10-1 ATS as a home underdog.
As a college coach, Rhule is 13-7 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Rhule, Nebraska is 6-10-2 ATS in conference games.


Michigan is 4-0 SU/2-0-2 ATS in last four series games.
Wolverines won 45-7/32-39 in last two visits to Lincoln.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.


North Carolina @ Central Florida (-7.5)
North Carolina (2-1)
North Carolina lost 48-14 to TCU, won 20-3 at Charlotte.
TCU ran for 258 yards in that game.
Tar Heels have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tar Heels have 155 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Lopez started 11 games at South Alabama last year.


North Carolina was 6-7 last year (4-9 ATS)
Since 2022, Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Tar Heels are 9-12-1 ATS in last 22 non-conference games.
ACC underdogs are 3-5 ATS in non-conference games.


Central Florida (2-0)
UCF beat Jacksonville State 17-10, a I-AA team 68-7
Knights have their Big X opener at K-State next week.
Knights have 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
UCF has 59 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Jackson started one game at Indiana last year.


Since 2021, UCF is 11-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Frost is 12-16-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Frost is 26-24-2 ATS in conference games.
UCF is 14-19 ATS in last 33 games coming off a win.
Big X non-conference favorites are 9-8 ATS, 5-5 at home.


These teams haven’t met in the last 25 years.


NC State @ Duke (-2.5)
NC State (3-0)
NC State won its first two games, scoring 24-35-34 points.
Last two games, Wolfpack ran ball for 216-205 yards.
NC State has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Wolfpack has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Bailey started 9 games LY.


Under Doeren, Wolfpack is 13-19-2 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Doreen is 14-19-2 ATS as a road dog.
Last 5+ years, Wolfpack is 26-18 ATS in conference games.
Wolfpack is 14-19 ATS in last 33 games coming off a win.


Duke (1-2)
Duke lost its two I-A games, giving up 45-34 points.
Blue Devils are minus-6 in turnovers this season.
Blue Devils have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Duke has 37 returning starts on the offensive line.


Duke is 10-5 ATS last 15 games as a home favorite.
In his career, Manny Diaz is 8-13 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2022, Duke is 15-9 ATS in ACC games.
Duke is 8-5 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.


Duke won/covered four of last five series games.
Wolfpack lost 24-3/38-20 in last two visits to Durham.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.


South Carolina @ Missouri (-9.5)
South Carolina (2-1)
Gamecocks beat Virginia Tech 24-11, lost 31-7 to Vanderbilt.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Gamecocks have 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Sellers started 12 games last year.


Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 8-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 18-15 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Carolina is 13-7 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Under Beamer, Carolina is 11-6 ATS in road games.


Missouri (3-0)
Mizzou scored 42-52 points in its two I-A wins.
Tigers ran for 688 yards in those two wins.
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Tigers have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Last 2 years, Junior QB Pribula was a backup QB at Penn State.


Mizzou is 6-2 ATS last eight games as a favorite.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 15-14-1 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Drinkwitz is 21-18-1 ATS as a favorite.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 24-18 ATS in SEC games.


Mizzou is 5-1 SU/6-0 ATS in last six series games.
Gamecocks are 0-3 SU/ATS in last three visits to Missouri.
Under is 10-3 in last 13 meetings.


Florida @ Miami (-9.5)
Florida (1-2)
Gators got upset 18-16 by USF, lost 20-10 at LSU.
Florida was minus-5 in turnovers in those losses.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Gators have 98 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Lagway started eight games last year.


Under Napier, Florida is 12-8 ATS as an underdog
In his career, Napier is 23-11-1 ATS as an underdog
Under Napier, Florida is 6-4 ATS as a road underdog
In his career, Napier is 14-7-1 ATS as an underdog
Under Napier, Florida is 14-11 ATS in SEC games.
SEC non-conference underdogs are 4-1 ATS


Miami FL (3-0)
Miami edged Notre Dame 27-24, beat South Florida 49-12
Hurricanes gained 576 yards vs USF last week.
Miami has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Hurricanes have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Beck started 13 games for Georgia last year.


Under Cristobal, Miami is 7-9 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Cristobal is 19-32-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Cristobal, Miami is 9-12 ATS at home.
Under Cristobal, Miami is 9-7 ATS in non-league games.
ACC non-conference home favorites are 4-8 ATS


Miami is 6-2 SU/ATS in last eight series games.
Teams have met only once since 2019.
Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.


Illinois @ Indiana (-6.5)
Illinois (3-0)
Illinois won its I-A games, 45-19/38-0.
Illini is +6 in turnovers this season.
Illinois has 10 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Illini has 193 returning starts on OL.
Senior QB Altmyer has 23 career starts.


Under Bielema, Illinois is 12-4 ATS as road underdogs.
In his career, Bielema is 27-17-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Bielema, Illinois is 21-15 ATS in Big 18 games.
In his career, Bielema is 73-59-2 ATS in conference games.
Illinois is 9-1-1 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.


Indiana (3-0)
Hoosiers won their I-A games, 27-14/56-9.
Indiana ran for 309-313 yards vs Old Dominion/Kennesaw State
Hoosiers have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Hoosiers have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Mendoza started 19 games at California.


Under Cignetti, Indiana is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 15-7 ATS as a home favorite.
Last nine games, Indiana is +16 in turnovers.
In his career, Cignetti is 18-7 ATS in Big 18 games.
Under Cignetti, Indiana is 9-3 ATS in games coming off a win.


Indiana is 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS in last five meetings.
Illinois lost 23-20/52-35 in last two visits to Indiana.


Arizona State @ Baylor (-2.5)
Arizona State (2-1)
ASU lost 24-20 at Miss State, beat Texas State 34-15.
Sun Devils ran ball for 251-245 yards in those games.
ASU has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Sun Devils have 76 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Leavitt had 2,885 PY LY, with 24 TD’s, 6 INTs.


Under Dillingham, Sun Devils are 14-5 ATS in Big X games.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 5-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Dillingham, ASU is 9-7 ATS as an underdog.
Under Dillingham, ASU 11-5 ATS in games coming off a win.


Baylor (2-1)
Baylor lost 38-24 at home to Auburn, won 48-45 at SMU.
Baylor gained 483-601 total yards in those games.
Bears have 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Bears have 97 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Robertson had 3,071 PY (28 TD’s, 8 INTs) LY.


Bears were 8-5 LY, after 6-7/3-9 seasons.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 11-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Aranda, Baylor is 23-22-1 ATS in Big X games.
Baylor is 16-11-1 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.


These teams haven’t met since 1990.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday, September 19​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
TLSA at OKST	07:30 PM	OKST -10.0 U 54.5	+500 +500
IOWA at RUTG	08:00 PM	RUTG +1.5 U 46.5	+500 +500