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[Udog]

WEEK SIX

 

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NCAAF

Week 6

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Trend Report
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[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 6

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Most receiving yards in NFL, Week 4:
170— Puka Nucua, Rams
134— George Pickens,
126— Justin Jefferson, Vikings
126— DK Metcalf, Steelers
114— Jordan Addison, Vikings
110—Drake London, Falcons

Quote of the Day
“It’s a challenge that it doesn’t matter how difficult it is, no one [outside the building] really cares. You have to find a way to get yourself to continue to get better, like all teams, for you to stay in the win column.”
Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel

Wednesday’s quiz
When was the last time the World Series went to seven games?

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Jets, Joe Namath has thrown for the most yards.

Monday’s quiz
Matthew Stafford played his college football at Georgia.

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Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….​

— Tigers 2, Guardians 1
Cleveland had tying run on third, no one out in 9th inning, but didn’t score.
Tarik Skubal struck out 14 guys in 7 IP, throwing 107 pitches.
Zach McKinstry knocked the game-winning run in with a sac bunt in 7th inning.

— Cubs 3, Padres 1
Chicago’s bullpen got 14 outs, didn’t allow a baserunner.
Suzuki/Kelly hit back/back home runs in fifth inning.
Top three hitters in San Diego’s lineup were a combined 0-11.

— Red Sox 3, Bronx 1
Yoshida’s 7th inning pinch-hit single was a game-winner.
Max Fried got 19 outs, didn’t allow a run.
New York’s bullpen gave up three runs in 2.2 IP.
Bronx had bases loaded, none out in 9th inning, but didn’t score.

— Dodgers 10, Reds 5
Hernandez, Ohtani both homered twice for the Dodgers.
Pitching in his hometown, Reds P Greene gave up 5 runs in three IP
Blake Snell allowed four hits in seven IP.

— Since the current best-of-three Wild Card series began in 2022, road teams have won 8 of 12 series including three of four last year.
How big is Game 1? The winner of Game 1 has won all 12 series, 10 of those in a 2-game sweep.

— Toronto Blue Jays have a bye this week; they’re hosting intrasquad games at Rogers Centre this week, to keep their players sharp. Fans can attend for $10.
First pitch is 4:00, with gates opening at 3:15. Games “will be four to five innings and structured as informal scrimmages, featuring players from the Blue Jays and AAA Buffalo Bisons”

— Angels parted ways Tuesday with manager Ron Washington, interim manager Ray Montgomery. 73-year old Washington was 99-137 managing the Angels; he had health issues this year and missed most of the season.

— Giants’ SS Willie Adames hit 30 home runs this year, the first player to hit 30 homers in one season for San Francisco since Barry Bonds, in 2004.

— Famous birthdays, October 1st
Julie Andrews, 90
Rod Carew, 80
Mark McGwire, 62
Zach Galifianakis, 56
Matt Cain, 41
Brie Larson, 36
Dustin Hopkins, 35
Robbie Ray, 34
Xander Bogaerts, 33
Cedric Mullins, 31
Otto Lopez, 27
Jordan Whittington, 25

— College football conference ATS trends:
American- Home teams 1-7 ATS in conference play.
ACC- Non-conference home favorites are 6-11 ATS
Big 18- Underdogs are 9-4 ATS in conference games.
Big X- Home favorites are 6-3 ATS in conference games.
C-USA- Home teams are 6-3 ATS in non-conference games.
MAC- Home teams are 5-0 ATS in conference games.
Mountain West- Teams are 21-10 ATS in non-conference games.
SEC- Underdogs are 8-4 ATS in conference games.
Sun Belt- Home teams are 4-1 ATS in conference games.

— NFL divisional ATS trends:
AFC East- home teams 1-3 ATS in divisional games.
AFC North- teams are 4-8 ATS in non-divisional games.
AFC South- teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
AFC West- teams are 5-5 ATS in non-divisional games.
NFC East- teams are 6-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
NFC North- home teams are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
NFC South- home teams are 1-4 ATS in non-divisional games.
NFC West- teams are 7-3 ATS in non-divisional games.

— Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill dislocated his left knee Monday night, is out for the rest of this year and maybe longer- he’ll need multiple surgeries.

— There is a survivor pool at the Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas that has over 12,000 entries; this past week, 784 people got knocked out when the Chargers lost to the Giants.

— Sunday was Davante Adams’ 64th career game with 50+ receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.
That is 5th-most in the last 25 years, behind:
73- Larry Fitzgerald
69- Antonio Gates
68- Terrell Owens
66- Mike Evans

— Tampa Bay kicker Chase McLaughlin kicked a 65-yard field goal, the longest outdoor field goal in NFL history.

— Random trivia: Jesse Owens won four gold medals at the 1936 Olympics in Germany, one of which was in the 200-meter sprint, where he set a new Olympic record.
The person who won the silver medal in the 200-meter sprint was Matthew Robinson, who also broke the Olympic record in that race. He had a younger brother who was became a lot more famous, baseball player Jackie Robinson.

 

[Cnotes53]

College football odds, picks, predictions: Miami-Florida State, Alabama-Vanderbilt highlight Week 6 schedule​

CBS Sports experts Brad Crawford and Chris Hummer reveal their predictions for the weekend's 10 best games​

Coming off a college football weekend featuring losses by three teams in the AP poll's top 5, things should settle down a bit in Week 6. Keyword there? Should. Changes across the board within our latest College Football Playoff projection signals conference title races within the Big Ten and SEC leading off what to watch moving forward this fall.

There's not many matchups this weekend pitting nationally ranked teams, but we found 10 games worthy of mention where prediction value is there for the taking.

Last week's results: Brad Crawford (7-3 straight, 6-4 ATS); Chris Hummer (4-6, 2-8 ATS). After losing the first two picks of the weekend with Virginia and Arizona State upsets, my wagers settled down for a winning mark at 6-4 overall. Notre Dame hammering Arkansas, Auburn keeping it within the number in College Station and Oregon's outright victory at Penn State helped.

Season totals: Crawford (36-14 straight, 30-20 ATS); Hummer (36-14; 20-30).

Clemson at North Carolina​

Hummer (Clemson -13.5): These are two of the most disappointing teams in the FBS for different reasons. North Carolina just isn't living up to the Bill Belichick hype at 2-2 and having been outscored 82-23 against Power Four competition. Clemson, for its part, went from preseason national title contender to a disastrous 1-3. Still, Clemson isn't a bad team. North Carolina might be. The Tigers win the lines of scrimmage and finally look more like themselves coming out of a bye week. -- Clemson 38, North Carolina 20.


Crawford (Clemson -13.5): Is Clemson capable of covering any spread the remainder of the season as a favorite? I have questions. Which one of these teams will be be better prepared coming off a bye week? And for the Tigers, how much do they still care with end-of-season goals essentially over? These are all factors to consider when making this play. There's the obvious talent discrepancy as well, but that hasn't helped Dabo Swinney's much through four games. -- Clemson 27, North Carolina 10.

Boise State at No. 21 Notre Dame​

Hummer (Notre Dame -17.5): This line is climbing the wrong direction for Boise State midway through this week. But it should be noted that Brad and I pick the lines as of Sunday. Thus, the value is with Notre Dame. Boise State is good. The Broncos are strong defensively, particularly in the secondary, and they're going to be a tough test. But Notre Dame's scored on everyone this year, and I'm hesitant to bet on a Boise State offense that's a middling 61st in offensive success rate. If there's an area of vulnerability for Notre Dame it's in the secondary, but Maddux Madsen has just been OK (69th in QBR) and I haven't seen enough from the Broncos to think they'll light it up through the air. Give me the Irish to cover. -- Notre Dame 35, Boise State 17.


Crawford (Boise State +17.5): The Irish might be overvalued a bit here after just hanging 50-plus at Arkansas, but they're certainly a team that looks to be hitting their stride since opening with losses to Miami and Texas A&M. And while improved, there are still areas of weakness to sort out defensively at Notre Dame before mentioning "playoff" and "Irish" in the same sentence moving forward. I'll take the underdogs to cover here. -- Notre Dame 38, Boise State 23.

Michigan State at Nebraska​

Hummer (Michigan State +11.5): This could be a big day for Dylan Raiola and the Huskers passing attack, because the Spartans have been horrendous this year defending the pass at 116th in success rate and 117th nationally in passing yards allowed per game. The question becomes can Michigan State's offense score enough against what is an excellent Nebraska secondary to keep up? I think Michigan State does enough coming out of a bye to keep this close. -- Nebraska 34, Michigan State 24.

Crawford (Michigan State +11.5): Any believers in Nebraska yet? The home loss to Michigan was a missed opportunity for Matt Rhule, who still hasn't beaten a nationally-ranked opponent with Huskers. The Spartans aren't ranked, but they did cover at USC this month and have an offense capable of keeping it within the number. If Nebraska leaves the back door open, Aidan Chiles will deliver with a touchdown pass to cash. -- Nebraska 31, Michigan State 24.

No. 14 Iowa State at Cincinnati​

Hummer (Cincinnati -1.5): The Bearcats are much better this year, but I'm still a little surprised to see them favored over a ranked Iowa State team. But Vegas doesn't care about records or rankings, and the Bearcats have been playing great. To me this game comes down to one area: How does Cincinnati's pass defense holds up? I have full confidence the Bearcats can score. That unit's been awesome at third nationally in yards per play. But the Cincinnati secondary has been a disaster at 132nd nationally in defensive success rate against the pass. Can Rocco Becht take advantage? I'm not sure. High-scoring, high-volume games aren't how Iowa State usually wins. Give me the Bearcats. -- Cincinnati 27, Iowa State 24.

Crawford (Cincinnati -1.5): If you're keeping tabs on games featuring an unranked team being favored at home against a ranked opponent, it hits more often than not. We saw it happen last week when then-unbeaten TCU was an underdog at Arizona State. Another scenario could be unfolding here in the unpredictable Big 12. Iowa State's unbeaten, but this will be its first road game against a conference opponent this fall. -- Cincinnati 23, Iowa State 20.

Mississippi State at No. 6 Texas A&M​

Hummer (Mississippi State +13.5): Unlike Auburn over the weekend, Mississippi State is capable enough on offense to stress a Texas A&M defense that's had some shaky moments early this year. It also helps that quietly the Bulldogs' defense has been excellent at 32nd nationally in yards allowed per play. Blake Shapen needs to recapture some of his early-season form, but I think this sets up well for a Mississippi State cover. I wouldn't even rule out an upset if the Bulldogs can force a few turnovers. -- Texas A&M 34, Mississippi State 21.


Crawford (Mississippi State +13.5): Mississippi State is 5-0 ATS this season and could've beaten Tennessee outright last week as a 7.5-point underdog at home before the Vols forced overtime. Texas A&M failed to cover at home against Auburn and needed its top defensive performance of the season to down the Tigers. The Aggies should stay unbeaten, but take the points here. And if you can get 14 points or more by kickoff, even better. -- Texas A&M 34, Mississippi State 24.

No. 9 Texas at Florida ​

Hummer (Texas -7.5): This is a tough game for Florida. Unless we see a very different offensive product from DJ Lagway and the Gators passing attack, Florida will really struggle against one of the elite defenses in college football. And while the Gators defense has held up admirably for much of the year, the injuries are starting to pile up for that unit, especially along the defensive line. Maybe Florida comes out of the bye week and looks totally different. It's possible. But based on what we've seen so far, I'll take Texas to cover. -- Texas 27, Florida 17.

Crawford (Texas -7.5): Statement coming from Arch Manning? His first SEC start of the season is the most important on this Texas schedule. It's difficult to imagine the Longhorns being a factor in the league title race or playoff conversation if they fall to a team amid a significant decline. Billy Napier's offense has no rhythm and going up against a defense littered with stars, that's a bad omen. -- Texas 24, Florida 10.

No. 11 Texas Tech at Houston​

Hummer (Texas Tech -10.5): I enter this game wondering if Houston can score enough to keep up with Texas Tech. The Cougars are better on that side of the ball but still rank just 86th nationally in yards per play and 116th in offensive success rate. That could be a problem against what's been an elite Texas Tech defense and an offensive unit capable of putting up points in bunches. Houston's defense keeps this game close for a while, but Texas Tech is going to be tough to beat coming out of a bye week. -- Texas Tech 28, Houston 17.

Crawford (Houston +10.5): We're keeping the Red Raiders as the projected Big 12 champion this week, but Joey McGuire's team is marked and is no more upset proof than many other remaining unbeatens. Unlike most Texas Tech wins, this one could take more of the methodical approach against an opponent whose front seven defensively may struggle getting push. But if you're giving me 10.5 points with an unranked team at home coached by Willie Fritz, I'm taking it. -- Texas Tech 31, Houston 23.

Wisconsin at No. 20 Michigan​

Hummer (Wisconsin +16.5): Does Wisconsin look any better coming out of the bye week? That's the big question entering this one. It helps the Badgers' case that Billy Edwards is back under center as QB1. But the Badgers still must figure out a way to consistently run the football. Michigan, outside of big runs by Justice Haynes, isn't usually particularly explosive offensively, so that works in Wisconsin's favor in terms of keeping this close. Michigan is better, but the Badgers manage to cover in an important game for Luke Fickell. -- Michigan 31, Wisconsin 20.

Crawford (Michigan -16.5): It's show me time for Fickell and the Badgers. Too often Wisconsin has come out flat under this current regime in big games, so here's a chance at reversing those fortunes in Ann Arbor. The best play here would be taking the under, but if you must pick a side, Michigan with a late cover in a potentially ugly game feels like the right spot to put your money. -- Michigan 30, Wisconsin 13.

No. 16 Vanderbilt at No. 10 Alabama​

Hummer (Vanderbilt +13.5): Vanderbilt is a product with which I know exactly what to expect. The Commodores are going to control the clock, efficiently move the football and avoid defensive mistakes that lead to explosive plays. Alabama? The Crimson Tide are more talented, but we've seen some very uneven performances from them this year. This game comes down to two areas to me: 1. How does a just OK Vanderbilt offensive line hold up? 2. Can Alabama establish any sort of run game and avoid making Ty Simpson carry the offense? I do think Alabama gets revenge at home. But Vanderbilt is going to make it difficult. -- Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 27.

Crawford (Vanderbilt +13.5): Vanderbilt's not going to beat Alabama for a second straight year, but this line feels disrespectful to the Commodores. Knowing what Diego Pavia was able to do against this defense last season should worry Alabama fans, especially since he's red-hot again through five games. Vanderbilt's been beating the opposition by more than four touchdowns per game this fall, but that changes this weekend. -- Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 27.

No. 3 Miami at No. 18 Florida State​

Hummer (Miami -5.5): This is going to be a fun test for Miami's revamped defense. It takes so much discipline to play Florida State's offense led by Gus Malzahn and Tommy Castellanos, and the Hurricanes have historically (and at times this year) had issues with busts and tackling. At the same time, I'm not particularly optimistic about Florida State's defense generating much pressure against what is the best O-line in college football. Both these teams are good. But Miami has the better roster and has the advantage of coming off a bye. Give me the Hurricanes. -- Miami 35, Florida State 28.

Crawford (Miami -5.5): I was admittedly surprised Virginia had as much success offensively as it did against the Seminoles, which resulted in an inexcusable road loss for Mike Norvell despite a sizable talent advantage. Here, it is Miami's turn to flex its roster after an open date. Can Florida State block this Hurricanes' front? That's where the game will be won. Pressuring Castellanos is key for the unbeaten Hurricanes. -- Miami 27, Florida State 20.

 

[Cnotes53]

Transfer WR Report Card from September: Texas A&M a big winner, other newcomers in SEC off to slow starts​

The transfer portal's big winners and bigger letdowns at wide receiver after one month​

One of the biggest winners from this past transfer portal cycle was Texas A&M. The Aggies managed to land two of the top wide receivers in the portal (Mario Craver from Mississippi State and KC Concepcion from NC State) and finished with the No. 11 overall transfer class according to 247Sports.

Through the first month of the 2025 season, the returns have been great. Craver ranks No. 7 in the FBS with 477 receiving yards, while Concepcion is No. 46 in the country with 340. The No. 6 Aggies are off to a 4-0 start after recent wins over Notre Dame and Auburn, and appear primed to compete for their first College Football Playoff berth in program history.

While Concepcion and Craver are thriving, a former Texas A&M standout hasn't clicked yet at his new stop. Noah Thomas, who led Texas A&M in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns a season ago, has gotten off to a slow start at Georgia and has just three catches for 24 yards on the season.

CBS Sports has already looked at some of the biggest hits and misses this transfer portal cycle at quarterback and running back. Here are three transfer wide receivers who have found immediate success at their new stop and three others who need to improve throughout the remainder of the season. Rankings via 247Sports.

Transfer RB Report Card from September: Ahmad Hardy is a star; what's going on with Jaydn Ott, Makhi Hughes?
Cameron Salerno

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Transfers WR hits​

Mario Craver, Texas A&M​

Transfer ranking from 247Sports: 58

Craver is in the midst of a breakout season at Texas A&M. The former Mississippi State receiver has already set a new career high in receptions (24), yards (477) and touchdowns (four) in just four games.

During the 2024 campaign, Craver finished with 17 receptions for 368 yards and three touchdowns. He recorded over 75 yards once last season, which is a mark he's hit three times already this year. In the 41-40 win over Notre Dame, he finished with seven catches for 207 yards and a touchdown.

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Duce Robinson, Florida State​

Transfer ranking from 247Sports: 8

The former highly-touted recruit was part of a loaded receiver room at USC. Robinson is on track to set new career highs in all statistical categories this season and has 17 catches for 346 yards and three touchdowns already.


After catching just two passes for 18 yards in a win over Alabama, he followed it up with five receptions for 173 yards and two touchdowns against East Texas A&M. In FSU's loss to Virginia, he caught nine passes for 147 yards and a touchdown. He has 10 more receptions than any other FSU pass catcher on the roster.

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Harrison Wallace lll, Ole Miss​

Transfer ranking from 247Sports: 83

Wallace is off to a strong start at his new school after having a breakout season with Penn State in 2024. Wallace leads all Ole Miss pass catchers in receptions (17), yards (361), and is tied for first with two touchdowns.

Wallace recorded just a single catch during his team's last two games, but he started the year with three straight games with over 90 receiving yards. With Ole Miss turning to Trinidad Chambliss, look for Wallace to get more involved down the stretch.

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Disappointments​

Horatio Fields, Auburn​

Transfer ranking from 247Sports: 29

The No. 6-ranked transfer wide receiver in the 247Sports rankings has been held to just 12 catches for 106 yards during his team's first four games. He has recorded two catches in three of those four outings, including a two-catch performance for 18 yards in the 24-17 loss to Oklahoma.

Fields, who transferred from Wake Forest, is part of a loaded receiving corps at Auburn, which includes Eric Singleton Jr. and Cam Coleman. Fields ranks third in catches, yards and touchdowns behind those two players.

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Chase Sowell, Iowa State​

Transfer ranking from 247Sports: 30

Sowell is coming off a breakout performance against Arizona. He caught four passes for 146 yards after logging just four catches for 32 yards during his team's first four games.


The former East Carolina standout was coming off back-to-back seasons with over 600 receiving yards. If Sowell can get more involved in the second half of the season, it would help raise Iowa State's ceiling as a CFP contender.

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Noah Thomas, Georgia​

Transfer ranking from 247Sports: 31

In Georgia's 24-21 loss to Alabama last weekend, Thomas logged just 14 snaps. On the season, Thomas has just three catches for 24 yards -- all of which came during Georgia's win over Austin Peay.

Thomas was the No. 8-ranked wide receiver available in the transfer portal, and his production thus far hasn't matched the expectations. Thomas has shown he's capable of being a No. 1 wide receiver in an offense (look at what he did last year at Texas A&M). Georgia would be wise to get him more involved going forward.

 

[Cnotes53]

College football's biggest September surprises: Arch Manning underwhelms, Vanderbilt looks legit​

With college football's first full month in the books, we look back at the season's most shocking developments so far​

Parity was promised after summer changes across college football. After the first month, we've seen plenty of it in the top 25. From transfer portal busts to unexpected national championship contenders, surprises and disappointments have come in rapid succession with the midseason point two weeks away.

Here's a look at some of the primary storylines to emerge in September across the rankings as conference play kicks into full swing.

Firings aplenty with more coming​

Deshaun Foster, Brent Pry, Mike Gundy and Sam Pittman all lost their jobs this month -- an unusually early start for the coaching carousel. UCLA cut ties with Foster after an 0-3 start for a team that drew considerable attention entering the season after signing former Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava from the transfer portal. Pry was fired at Virginia Tech following an embarrassing home loss to Old Dominion, while Oklahoma State parted ways with Gundy for similar reasons. Pittman watched his Arkansas defense give up 42 first-half points to Notre Dame over the weekend before he was handed his walking papers.

Lane Kiffin uncovers Division II gem​

Ferris State quarterback transfer Trinidad Chambliss was expected to be the emergency option behind Austin Simmons for the Rebels after his post-spring signing, but the 6-foot dual-threat now holds the title of leader for fourth-ranked Ole Miss. Thrust into action in Week 3 with Simmons slowed by injury, Chambliss has stacked three consecutive 300-yard outings with 245 yards rushing across those starts. He fueled a win over nationally ranked Tulane with 419 total yards before helping the Rebels topple LSU over the weekend to stay perfect. With only Oklahoma and Georgia left as elite competition, Ole Miss is staring down its first playoff appearance in school history.

Chambliss by the numbers​

Opponent	Result	Passing	TDs	Rushing	TDs
Georgia State	W, 63-7	4-of-6; 59	1	8	0
at Kentucky	W, 30-23	0-of-0; 0	0	13	0
Arkansas	W, 41-35	21-of-29; 353	1	62	2
Tulane	W, 45-10	17-of-17; 307	2	112	0
No. 4 LSU	W, 24-19	23-of-39; 314	1	71	0

Underwhelming Clemson unranked​

Dabo Swinney's preseason prediction has aged poorly, almost as badly as Cade Klubnik's play at quarterback and the team's defensive struggles, despite three starters projected as future first-rounders. A nearly unanimous pick to win the ACC and a top-four seed in the College Football Playoff, Clemson fell from No. 4 in the AP Poll after just a couple of games following losses to Florida State and Georgia Tech. Klubnik ranks 94th nationally in QBR (45.1) after throwing 36 touchdown passes as a junior last season and earning preseason first-team All-American honors in August.

South Florida spikes Group of Five conversation​

You know why Alex Golesh's name is mentioned in every Power Four coaching vacancy this season? Look at what he's doing for the Bulls. After opening with a win over nationally ranked Boise State, USF followed with a road victory and handled Florida inside a raucous Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The Bulls host Charlotte as heavy favorites Friday night with a chance to start 4-1 and potentially crack top 25. Three other unbeatens — Memphis, Navy and North Texas — along with Tulane, will challenge USF the rest of the way for the Group of Five playoff bid from the American Conference.

Air Manning grounded at Texas​

Justified or not, Arch Manning entered the season as the preseason Heisman favorite, only to see his odds plummet to 36-1 after his second start following underwhelming performances against Ohio State and San Jose State. The lackluster showing against UTEP, which included 10 straight incompletions, fueled post-game frustrations. Steve Sarkisian said he expects his quarterback to benefit from early adversity and believes Manning will bounce back during SEC play. That begins this weekend at Florida, a team desperate for a season-changing win.

Bill Belichick's already back-page news​

Clemson-North Carolina was supposed to carry national significance in the ACC, but the Tar Heels have joined the Tigers below the fold with anemic offensive showings against Power Four competition. Belichick transition to college football began with an embarrassing performance on Labor Day against TCU and includes a recent loss at UCF that left him without answers for North Carolina's struggles. Reaching bowl eligibility should have been a given for a team with a roster largely built through the transfer portal, but that is no longer a guarantee after five weeks.

Vanderbilt humming again to oddsmakers' dismay​

Veteran quarterback Diego Pavia expressed confidence over the summer that those inside the Commodores' locker room believed they could win the SEC this season. That's not so far-fetched after a 5-0 start that has included a rout of then-ranked South Carolina on the road and a win at Virginia Tech that drew national attention. Returning 70% of last season's production, Vanderbilt has picked up where it left off inside the top 25 and could ascend to league frontrunner status with a win at Alabama this weekend. It's only October, and the Commodores are already one victory away from surpassing their projected win total. Surprise!

Georgia Tech's real playoff aspirations​

From unranked to top 20, Brent Key's Yellow Jackets have a couple of comeback road wins under their belts and have already taken down the ACC team expected to pose the most trouble on the path to the league title game. Georgia remains the last ranked opponent on Georgia Tech's schedule, and if quarterback Haynes King stays healthy, he's on pace to set a career-best rushing mark this fall.

South Carolina's offense stinks​

Despite preseason first-team All-SEC quarterback LaNorris Sellers and a starting lineup littered with returning starters, South Carolina's offense has been stuck in quicksand under first-year coordinator Mike Shula. The Gamecocks haven't eclipsed 400 yards of total offense in any game this fall -- a mark that 64 other FBS teams have already hit. After nearly reaching the playoff for the first time last season, many assumed a preseason top-15 South Carolina would build on that success. Instead, struggles at the line of scrimmage and in the backfield led to a stumbling 3-2 record out of the gate.

No Makhi Hughes, no problem for Oregon​

One of the transfer portal's top running back acquisitions this offseason, the former Tulane star has been MIA for the second-ranked Ducks -- and they haven't missed a beat. Hughes rushed for 1,401 yards and 15 touchdowns for the Green Wave last fall but has just 70 yards on 17 attempts at Oregon. Meanwhile, Dierre Hill Jr. and Jayden Limar have emerged as top-tier threats alongside Noah Whittington in the backfield, and quarterback Dante Moore is playing at a Heisman level. It's a surprise Hughes has been a non-factor on a team ranked inside the top 15 in both total offense and scoring this season.

 

[Cnotes53]

Arkansas coaching search: SMU's Rhett Lashlee dismisses 'speculation' regarding Razorbacks ties​

The former Arkansas QB made his stance clear​

https://www.cbssports.com/writers/cody-nagel/

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Arkansas' decision to fire Sam Pittman immediately sparked speculation about who might be next to lead the Razorbacks. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee saw his name quickly surface. A former Arkansas quarterback, Lashlee guided SMU through one of the most successful stretches in school history. That success, coupled with his Fayetteville ties, makes him a natural target in early conversations about Arkansas' vacancy.
Lashlee is not playing along.

"I don't stand anywhere on speculation and hypotheticals," Lashlee said during his weekly press conference. "I'm happy, I've got a great job. I think when your name gets linked to jobs it means your team has done well, the program has done well. So it's a compliment to what our staff and administration and players have built over the last three-plus years. Then a lot of times there's obvious connections. If it's your alma mater, it's easy to link names. But I haven't given it any thought because there hasn't been anything to give thought to. It's a great, fair question. But I'm really excited with what we're building here."

The Razorbacks' move comes after a rough start to 2025. Pittman, who delivered three winning seasons during his tenure, dropped to 13-16 over his last 29 games after Saturday's 56-13 blowout loss to Notre Dame at home. Arkansas has not reached double-digit wins in a season since 2011 under Bobby Petrino and now faces the challenge of stabilizing the program in an SEC that only continues to get deeper and stronger.
Lashlee, meanwhile, positioned SMU as a rising power in its new ACC home. Since taking over in 2022, he led the Mustangs to a pair of 11-win seasons, an American Conference championship and an appearance in last year's expanded College Football Playoff as the ACC runner-up.

Even with a 2-2 start in 2025, Lashlee built sustained success at SMU, going 22-6 over his last 28 games. That stretch allowed the Mustangs to strengthen their program, including increased investment in facilities and recruiting. Lashlee emphasized that the combination of experienced players and top-ranked recruiting classes has SMU positioned for continued growth and competitiveness in the ACC.


"Until there's things to talk about, you don't talk about them," Lashlee said. "Internally, we haven't said a word about it because, in my world, nothing's going on. Outside, there's a lot of that speculation, and that's part of our business, and it's probably not going anywhere."

 

[Cnotes53]

These 6 underdog QBs are lighting up college football, but do they have any shot at the NFL?​

From transfers to late bloomers, these six sleeper quarterbacks are turning heads in college football -- but do they project as NFL prospects?​

https://www.cbssports.com/writers/cooper-petagna/

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Evaluating quarterbacks has never been harder. College numbers lie, and the NFL game chews up prospects faster than ever. For every Burrow or Stroud who makes the jump clean, there are dozens who light up Saturdays but can't survive Sundays. Size, scheme, toughness, decision-making -- it all matters, but plenty of times it comes down to instincts you can't measure. The gap between a Day 3 pick and a camp body is razor thin.
This year, a handful of guys who don't exactly scream "prototype NFL QB" are giving scouts something to think about. Transfers, journeymen, system kids -- are they just the classic "awesome college QB who won't play in the NFL?" or do we need to rethink that logic on the heels of Dillon Gabriel being a Day 2 NFL pick (and newly minted QB1 in Cleveland) and a more general acceptance from the NFL level in the type of college QB who years ago probably weren't legit draft prospects.

College Football QB Power Rankings: Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss, Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia on the rise
David Cobb

Here's where this year's group of "awesome college QBs who don't look like NFL guys" realistically stand as next-level prospects.

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Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss: The D-II transfer who won't blink​

Draft Projection: Day 3​

Chambliss came over from Ferris State without much fanfare. He wasn't supposed to play, but Austin Simmons' injury shoved him into the spotlight. All he's done since: keep Ole Miss afloat. He's undersized (6-feet, 200), but the kid competes. Completing 64% with a 5-to-1 TD/INT ratio, plus 260 rushing yards. His LSU tape was the eye-opener -- calm, decisive, didn't blink. He's never going to be a prototype, but in the right system he can hang. Think Tyrod Taylor-lite: tough, resourceful, a guy who sticks around.

---

Haynes King, Georgia Tech: Athlete in search of a position​

Draft Projection: Day 3/UDFA​

King's been a rollercoaster since his days at Texas A&M. Now he's running around for Georgia Tech, putting together an undefeated start. He's completing 68%, tossed a few scores, and racked up 380 yards and seven TDs on the ground. At 6-3, 215, the frame and athleticism jump out. The arm? Not as much. Feels like one of those "what else can he play?" prospects -- maybe a slash role, maybe a project tight end. Scouts will argue about it. Best guess: UDFA who gets a camp look because somebody falls in love with the tools.

---

Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt: Grit and grind, but short runway​

Draft Projection: Day 3/UDFA​

If you like grinders, Pavia's your guy. The second-year New Mexico State transfer is now at Vanderbilt, suddenly throwing darts at a 74% clip. He processes fast, plays fearless, and makes things happen when the play breaks down. Problem is, he'll be 25 years old by draft time, and the frame isn't ideal. Trace McSorley (one NFL start), John Wolford (four) are realistic comparisons. Gritty, smart, can help a team, but not built for a long runway. He'll get a shot, but late Day 3 or UDFA is his reality.

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Joey Aguilar, Tennessee: Product of system? ​

Draft Projection: Day 3/UDFA​

Aguilar screams Josh Heupel QB: tempo, vertical shots, and stat sheets that pop. The App State transfer has 13 TDs on 65% passing, pushing nine yards per attempt. At 6-3, 225, he's got the frame, though he's not much of a runner. The big question: is it him, or is it the system? Scouts have been burned on the veer-and-shoot archetype before, most recently in Hendon Hooker. Right now, Aguilar looks like a backup who's worth a late pick. Maybe you stash and see if he can function outside the scheme on the practice squad.

---

Athan Kaliakmanis, Rutgers: Reliable but limited​

Draft Projection: Day 3/UDFA​

Kaliakmanis won't wow you, but he won't lose you games either. Since leaving Minnesota for Rutgers, he's completed 67% for nearly 1,400 yards with a clean 9-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Average arm, average athleticism, but he knows who he is. Gets the ball out on time, makes smart reads, doesn't overextend.
The "Greek Rifle" is in the Nick Mullens bucket as steady backup material. Not flashy, but teams like guys they can trust in a pinch.

---

Kevin Jennings, SMU: Twitchy wild card with juice​

Draft Projection: Day 3/UDFA​

Jennings is the gambler's pick. Just 6-feet and 192 pounds, but he's completing 68%, throwing for over 1,100 and nine scores with a twitchy release and juice all over his tape. He's raw: accuracy wavers, decisions get risky (as we saw in the College Football Playoff vs. Penn State), and the run game production hasn't matched his elusiveness yet. But the flashes pop. Stick around another year, and he could climb into the middle rounds. For now? He's a late Day 3 flyer with a chance to surprise.

 

[Cnotes53]

College Football QB Power Rankings: Ole Miss' Trinidad Chambliss, Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia on the rise​

SEC quarterbacks are making waves entering Week 6 of the season​

https://www.cbssports.com/writers/david-cobb/

CBS Sports graphic
Few quarterbacks have clearly separated themselves as college football's elite, and the shifting landscape continues to shake up the leaderboard. There's a new No. 1 in this week's quarterback power rankings, as former Division II transfer-turned-Ole Miss star Trinidad Chambliss climbs into the top spot. He's one of three SEC quarterbacks in the top five entering Week 6.
Still, the Big Ten leads all Power Four conferences with 11 quarterbacks in the top 50, followed closely by the Big 12 and its QB Club. Oregon's Dante Moore announced his arrival with a poised, three-touchdown performance in Penn State's raucous "White Out" in Week 5. But in two weeks, he'll face another big test in a head-to-head showdown with Indiana's Fernando Mendoza on CBS.
Before then, Week 6 delivers one of the most intriguing quarterback duels in the SEC as Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia heads to Tuscaloosa to square off with Alabama's Ty Simpson. Pavia has become one of the league's most productive playmakers, while Simpson has surged into the Heisman conversation behind his mistake-free efficiency.
Iowa State's Rocco Becht and Cincinnati's Brendan Sorsby square off in a sneaky Big 12 matchup that doubles as a showcase for two talented quarterbacks. Sorsby has carved up opposing defenses since Week 2.

These rankings are not a Heisman forecast, draft projection or season-long outlook. They are a real-time reaction to performance, weighing competition, game pressure and production. With that, here are this week's power rankings of college football's top 50 quarterbacks.

2025 Heisman Trophy roundtable: Dante Moore, John Mateer among standout candidates through September
Chris Hummer

1. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss​

It's clear now that Lane Kiffin may have had the wrong QB1 to start the season. Since stepping in for an injured Austin Simmons, the Division II transfer has dazzled, leading Ole Miss to a Week 5 win over LSU with 314 passing yards, a touchdown and 71 yards rushing. Chambliss continues to prove he can handle the Rebels offense. Last week: 5

2. Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt​

Who knows where the Commodores would be without Pavia taking advantage of an extra year of eligibility. With six total touchdowns in a Week 5 win over Utah State, he now tops the SEC in total scores and ranks among the national leaders in completion percentage (74.6%) and passer rating (184.62). Vanderbilt will need that and more as they face a brutal slate of SEC opponents in the weeks ahead. Last week: 6

3. Haynes King, Georgia Tech​

Nobody grinds out wins quite like King and Georgia Tech. In Week 5 at Wake Forest, he notched his 13th career game with both a passing and rushing touchdown, breaking the Yellow Jackets' all-time record. After turnovers on each of Georgia Tech's first three possessions this season, King has committed just one lost fumble and no interceptions over the last 256 snaps with 10 total touchdowns. Last week: 3

4. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana​

A slight dip in the rankings this week for Mendoza after a close win at Iowa. The Indiana quarterback threw his first interception of the season but added two more touchdowns, still giving him the best touchdown-to-interception ratio in the FBS. The Hoosiers are in the driver's seat for a return trip to the College Football Playoff with Mendoza set to face a tough test at Oregon in Week 7. Last week: 1

5. Ty Simpson, Alabama​

Suddenly, Simpson is the one rising up the Heisman Trophy odds after leading the Crimson Tide to another win against Georgia. The first-year starter is one of just three Power Four quarterbacks with at least 120 pass attempts without an interception so far this season. Under coach Kalen DeBoer, the offensive system is starting to click, and coordinator Ryan Grubb has tailored the scheme perfectly to Simpson's strengths. Last week: 5

6. Dante Moore, Oregon
Going into Happy Valley and upsetting Penn State during a "White Out" is no small feat, but that's exactly what Moore delivered for Oregon, completing 74.4% of his passes for three touchdowns. The poise he displayed under such hostile conditions underscores why he's quickly emerging as one of college football's most reliable and confident signal-callers this season. Moore is the betting favorite for the Heisman Trophy at +600 according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Last week: 12


7. CJ Carr, Notre Dame
Carr has thrived against two of the weakest passing defenses in the Power Four over the past two weeks, tossing for a combined 577 yards and six touchdowns for Notre Dame. What stands out is his aggressiveness downfield, averaging 11.5 air yards per attempt -- tied for ninth among FBS quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts per game. Last week: 29

8. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor​

Anytime the opposing defensive coordinator is shown the door the next day, it's a clear indicator of a dominant performance. Unsurprisingly, Robertson carved up Oklahoma State's secondary for 393 yards and four touchdowns, setting season highs in both yards per attempt (11.2) and completion rate (68.6%). The Baylor quarterback now leads the FBS with 17 passing touchdowns and 342.6 passing yards per game. Last week: 16

9. Josh Hoover, TCU​

Hoover is one of the biggest fallers in this week's updated rankings. For just the fourth time in 23 starts at TCU, he failed to throw a touchdown pass in a 27-24 loss to Arizona State, a game in which the Horned Frogs squandered a 17-0 lead. A key reason for the setback was top target and wide receiver Eric McCalister being limited to just 12 snaps. Last week: 2

10. Jayden Maiava, USC​

Maiava had, without question, his roughest outing of the season in USC's loss at Illinois, even though he still threw for 364 yards and two touchdowns. Both scores came to Makai Lemon in the fourth quarter, erasing a 14-point deficit and giving the Trojans a late lead after a successful 2-point conversion. Despite tossing his first interception of the season, the defeat wasn't on Maiava alone. Last week: 7

11. Byrum Brown, South Florida​

Byrum has been the driving force behind the Bulls' start. His skillset fits perfectly in Alex Golesh's veer-and-shoot offense, and if USF hopes to contend for an American Conference title and a spot in the College Football Playoff Byrum will need to continue pushing the tempo and stretching defenses over the next couple months. Last week: 10

12. Luke Altmyer, Illinois​

Altmyer bounced back from Illinois' blowout loss at Indiana to engineer a win over USC, passing for more than 300 yards for just the third time since joining the Fighting Illini. He threw three touchdowns and helped set up the game-winning field goal in the two-minute drill. Remarkably, Altmyer has yet to turn the ball over -- or even put it on the ground -- this season, maintaining perfect ball security. Last week: 21

13. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee​

Aguilar showed grit, overcoming a pair of interceptions to lead Tennessee to an overtime win that quieted the Mississippi State cowbells. On a 13-play, 75-yard game-tying drive in the fourth quarter, he completed all six passes for 54 yards before capping it with a decisive 6-yard touchdown run. Last week: 14

14. Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati​

The Sorsby show is rolling. After Nebraska's secondary rattled him early, he's been unstoppable, throwing 10 touchdowns with zero interceptions in his last three games. His 11.9 yards per attempt since Week 2 leads all FBS quarterbacks with at least 20 attempts per game, putting defenses on notice. Suddenly Cincinnati looks like a potential contender in the Big 12. Last week: 48

15. Julian Sayin, Ohio State​

Making his first road start since high school (!!), Sayin ended Washington's 22-game home winning streak with a poised, methodical performance. After missing on three of his first seven passes, he completed 10 straight before finishing 22-of-28 for 208 yards and two touchdowns for top-ranked Ohio State. Last week: 28

16. Devon Dampier, Utah​

It's obvious now that a fully healthy Dampier is wayyy more effective than the one hobbled in the Texas Tech loss. The Utah quarterback looked sharp and decisive at West Virginia, piling up five total touchdowns while completing 80.8% of his passes at a season-best 9.1 yards per attempt to power the Week 5 win. Last week: 20

17. Sam Leavitt, Arizona State​

Out-dueling Josh Hoover was a massive boost for Leavitt's stock. The Arizona State quarterback spearheaded a furious rally from 17 points down, tossing two touchdown passes and adding a rushing score. From the middle of the second quarter into the early fourth, Leavitt was nearly flawless, completing 16 of 18 throws to keep the Sun Devils offense humming. Last week: 42

18. Rocco Becht, Iowa State​

Becht had a streak of 22 consecutive games with at least one passing touchdown that was snapped in a win against Arizona, but made up for it with a career-best three rushing scores to propel Iowa State. Back-to-back road games coming up for the Cyclones will test whether Becht can keep finding ways to carry the offense. Last week: 26

19. Carson Beck, Miami​

Beck hasn't needed eye-popping stats to keep Miami unbeaten, but that could change this week. The Hurricanes head to Tallahassee for a marquee showdown with Florida State, whose secondary has limited explosive plays while also piling up takeaways. Last week: 17

20. Dylan Raiola, Nebraska​

Statistically, Raiola has played like a top-10 quarterback in the FBS this season, but a few flaws still keep him outside the elite tier. Better protection up front would smooth out those rough edges, giving him more chances to push the ball downfield. Still, without Raiola, Nebraska's offense looks rather ordinary -- he's the difference between respectability and irrelevance. Last week: 18

21. Darian Mensah, Duke


Last week: 22
22. Jalon Daniels, Kansas
Last week: 24
23. Beau Pribula, Missouri
Last week: 15
24. Chandler Morris, Virginia
Last week: 30
25. Aidan Chiles, Michigan State
Last week: 19
26. Tommy Castellanos, Florida State
Last week: 9
27. Demond Williams Jr., Washington
Last week: 11
28. Taylen Green, Arkansas
Last week: 8
29. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M
Last week: 4
30. CJ Bailey, NC State
Last week: 27
31. Bear Bachmeier, BYU
Last week: 44
32. Anthony Colandrea, UNLV
Last week: 31
33. Bryce Underwood, Michigan
Last week: 32

34. Gunner Stockton, Georgia
Last week: 13
35. Maddux Madsen, Boise State
Last week: unranked
36. Malik Washington, Maryland
Last week: 36
37. Behren Morton, Texas Tech
Last week: 35
38. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Last week: 45
39. Bryson Barnes, Utah State
Last week: 38
40. Blake Horvath, Navy
Last week: 40
41. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, California
Last week: unranked
42. Drake Lindsey, Minnesota
Last week: unranked
43. Jake Retzlaff, Tulane
Last week: 37
44. Athan Kaliakmanis, Rutgers
Last week: 43
45. Drew Mestemaker, North Texas
Last week: 46
46. Miller Moss, Louisville
Last week: unranked
47. Jackson Arnold, Auburn
Last week: 25
48. Katin Houser, East Carolina
Last week: unranked
49. Kevin Jennings, SMU
Last week: 41
50. Conner Weigman, Houston
Last week: 49

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Thursday, October 2

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday, October 2​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
SHSU at NMSU	09:00 PM	NMSU +2.0 O 53.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Best college football teams against the spread this year:
5-0— Louisiana Tech
5-0— Memphis
5-0— Mississippi State
5-0— Utah State
4-0— James Madison
3-0-1— Ohio State

Quote of the Day
“From the second he’s (Dillon Gabriel) been here, he’s been working very hard. He’s a very intelligent young man. He’s done a nice job throughout practice, and this whole season he’s been learning how to get yourself ready and understand the rhythm of an NFL week and what that looks like as a backup. Obviously, now feel like he’s ready to go as a starter.”
Browns coach Kevin Stefanski

Thursday’s quiz
Which major league team has gone the longest since the last time they won a playoff series?

Wednesday’s quiz
2019 was last time the World Series went to seven games, when Washington beat Houston.

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the New York Jets, Joe Namath has thrown for the most yards.

************************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud…….​

— ESPN had a good day Wednesday; three of the four Wild Card series are tied 1-1, so we have three winner-take-all games Thursday. Winner-take-all games get good ratings.
Here is the schedule:
3:00 Tigers @ Cleveland
5:00 Padres @ Chicago
8:00 Red Sox @ New York
This is the first time since 1981 there are three winner-take-all games on the same day.

— Guardians 6, Tigers 1
Cleveland scored five runs in the bottom of the 8th.
Rocchio, Naylor homered in that 8th inning.
Flaherty vs Cecconi is Thursday’s matchup.

— Padres 3, Cubs 0
San Diego bullpen got 16 outs, allowed one baserunner.
Machado hit a 2-run homer in the fifth inning.
Darvish vs Taillon is Thursday’s matchup.

— New York 4, Red Sox 3
Austin Wells had game-winning hit, in the 8th inning.
Trevor Story knocked in all three Boston runs.
Early vs Schlittler is Thursday’s matchup.

— Dodgers 8, Reds 4
Mookie Betts went 4-for-5, with three RBI
Spots 7-9 in Dodger batting order went 7-12 with five runs scored.
Dodgers move on to play the Phillies in the next round.

— Monday in New York City, Mets’ president of baseball operations David Stearns hosted a press conference the day after the Mets’ season ended without the Mets making the playoffs, even though their payroll was $340,085,003.
What went wrong? Mets were 45-25 on June 13th, then went 38-54 the rest of the season.
Lot of tough questions at the news conference, Stearns kept his cool, it is all part of the job, but it had to be a rough couple of hours for him.
Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso earned a combined $125,975,000 this year, that’s $126M for three guys, but three really good guys, money well spent. Some of the other high-paid players didn’t do so well.
$22,009,731- Sean Manaea
$20,250,000- Brandon Nimmo
$19,500,000- Starling Marte
$17,000,000- Frankie Montas
$7,500,000- Jesse Winker
These are the guys that Stearns has to answer for; the Marlins had a payroll of $69,510,827 and they went 79-83, only four games behind the Mets.
By way of comparison, Stearns’ old team, the Milwaukee Brewers had the #23 payroll this year, $115,136,217, and they got a first round bye in the playoffs.

— Famous birthdays, October 2nd:
Lorraine Bracco, 71
Dave Beard, 66
Mark Rypien, 63
Kelly Ripa, 55
Aaron McKie, 53
Tyson Chandler, 43
Joe Ingels, 38
Lance McCullers Jr, 32

— Brian Snitker won’t be back as manager of the Atlanta Braves next year; he went 835-691 in 10 years managing the Braves, winning the 2021 World Series, but Snitker is going to be 70 in a couple weeks, and the Braves went 76-86 this year, their first losing season since 2017.

— Colorado Rockies went 43-119 this year; they fired GM Bill Schmidt this week, largely because their team really sucks- the last three years, they’ve lost 323 games. Colorado had winning years as recently as 2017-2018, but that seems like a long time ago.

— Red Sox P Garrett Crochet threw 100+ pitches in 16 games this season, the most of any major league pitcher this year.

— Movie of the Day: Hustle (2022)- A basketball scout discovers a great ballplayer in Spain, and sees the prospect as his chance to move up from scouting to being an assistant coach.
Adam Sandler is the scout, Queen Latifah is his wife, Robert Duvall has a cameo as the owner of the 76ers, and a lot of NBA players appear in the movie.
If you like basketball, you’ll like this movie. It is really good.

— Cleveland Browns will start rookie QB Dillon Gabriel Sunday when they play the Vikings in London; Browns scored only 14 ppg in their 1-3 start.
Gabriel will become the 41st different quarterback the Browns have started since returning to the NFL in 1999, the most in the league during that time.

— Last 25 years, 2018 Houston Texans are the only team that started a season 0-3 and made the playoffs that year.

— Pitches thrown by the starting pitchers the last couple days:
Tigers- Skubal 107, Mize 62
Guardians- Williams 88, Bibee 87
Red Sox- Crochet 117, Bello 28
Bronx- Fried 102, Rodon 91
Padres- Pivetta 85, Cease 69
Cubs- Boyd 58, Imanaga 67 (opener Kittredge threw 20)
Reds- Greene 65, Littell 52
Dodgers- Snell 91, Yamamoto 113

 

[Cnotes53]

CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/02/2025.....................1 - 1 - 0......................50.00%..................- 0.50

TOTALS..........................1 - 1 - 0......................50.00%..................- 0.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
Thru four weeks, most pass plays of 20+ yards:
17— Rams
16— 49ers
15— Raiders
14— Bills, Bears, Seahawks
13— Cowboys, Chargers, Buccaneers
12— Packers, Texans, Colts, Giants, Patriots

Quote of the Day
“I’d love to manage again. Obviously, Atlanta would be amazing, but there’s nothing to really elaborate on.”
Former major league catcher/manager David Ross

Friday’s quiz
In the history of the Houston Oilers/Tennessee Titans, who has thrown for the most yards?

Thursday’s quiz
1995 was the last time the Cincinnati Reds won a playoff series, the longest current drought in the major leagues.

Wednesday’s quiz
2019 was last time the World Series went to seven games, when Washington beat Houston.

*************************************************

Friday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Thursday……​

— Tigers 6, Guardians 3
Dillon Dingler hit the go-ahead homer in the 6th inning.
Tigers broke game open, scoring four runs in 7th inning.
Detroit-Seattle will meet in the ALDS.

— Cubs 3, Padres 1
Taillon allowed two baserunners in four scoreless IP (60 PT)
San Diego was 0-8 with runners in scoring position.
Cubs play Milwaukee in the NLDS.

— Bronx 4, Red Sox 0
Rookie Schlittler struck out 12 in eight scoreless IP.
Bronx scored all four of its runs in the fourth inning.
New York-Toronto will meet in the ALDS.

— 49ers 26, Rams 23 OT
SF stopped the Rams on 4th-and-1 to end the game.
Rams forced OT, kicking a 48-yard FG with 0:02 left
Rams also fumbled on the 49ers’ 1-yard line with 1:02 left.
49ers’ five games have all been decided by 5 or fewer points.
SF WR Bourne caught 10 passes for 142 yards.
49ers’ first two drives: 25 plays, 163 yards, 14 points.
49ers won six of last eight visits to Los Angeles.
Underdogs are 5-0-1 ATS in last six series games.

— New Mexico State 37, Sam Houston State 10
New Mexico State led 13-10 after the third quarter.
Aggies threw ball for 255 yards (9.4 yards/attempt)
Aggies were 9-13 on third down, Sam Houston 3-11

— Knicks 99, 76ers 84
Exhibition game was played in Abu Dhabi.
Knicks outscored Philly 28-18 in second quarter.
Knicks played 19 different players, 76ers played 13 guys.

— Movie of the Day: All the President’s Men (1976)- Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein uncover details of the Watergate scandal that leads to President Richard Nixon’s resignation.
Tremendous cast: Robert Redford, Dustin Hoffman, Jack Warden, Hal Holbrook, Jason Robards, Martin Balsam, Ned Beatty, Meredith Baxter.

—Famous birthdays, October 3rd:
Dave Winfield, 74
Greg Foster, 57
Janel Moloney, 56
Anquan Boldin, 45
Courtney Lee, 40
Mike Gesicki, 30
CJ Abrams, 25
CJ Stroud, 24
Abdul Carter, 22

Seven baseball players who could be free agents this winter:

— Pete Alonso 1B- Has $24M option with the Mets for next year, but can probably make way more than that, even though he is 31. Last five years, he’s hit 195 homers, played in 158 games a year. Durable and productive; Mets will probably re-sign him.

— Luis Arraez 1B/2B- Won three of last four batting titles, slumped to .292 this year. Does not have a lot of power, not real fast, average fielder, but he gets a lot of hits.

— Bo Bichette SS- Hit .311 this year with an .840 OPS. Led the league in hits in 2021/2022; he had an injury-plagued season last year. Had 94 RBI this season.

— Alex Bregman 3B- Can opt out of the last two years of his contract, which would pay $80M; had an .821 OPS this year, his best since 2019. It is assumed that he will opt out.

— Kyle Schwarber OF/DH- Is 33 years old, but he hit 56 homers, had 132 RBI this year, has 187 homers the last four seasons. Philly is an excellent hitters’ park; should he stay there?

— Kyle Tucker OF- Hit 134 homers the last five years, has career OPS of .865. Hurt his hand in July and struggled in second half of season.

— Framber Valdez, P- Is 32 years old; over last four years, is 57-35 in 121 starts. He’s pitched in the playoffs five of the last six years.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Friday, October 3

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Friday’s games
West Virginia @ BYU (-19.5)
West Virginia (2-3, 0-2)
WVU is 0-2 on road (17-10 @ Ohio U/41-10 @ Kansas)
Last two weeks, WVU gave up 41-48 points, 242-242 YR.
Mountaineers have 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Mountaineers have 57 returning starts on OL, mostly from transfers.
Junior QB Marchiol got benched, is going to transfer portal.
Former Texas A&M Henderson has 146 YR, is 7-18/50 passing.

Last 4+ years, WVU is 9-9 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Rodriguez is 40-48 ATS as an underdog.
In his career, Rodriguez is 20-32 ATS as a road underdog.
Rodriguez was HC here from 2001-07; this is his first year back.
Under is 3-1 in WVU’s I-A games this year.

BYU (4-0, 1-0)
BYU beat Stanford 27-3, ECU 34-13, Colorado 24-21.
BYU was +6 in turnovers in those games.
Cougars have 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Broncos have 61 starts returning on the offensive line.
QB Bachmeier is 61-90/687 passing (6 TD’s, no INTs)

BYU is 4-2 ATS last six games as a home favorite.
In his career, coach Sitake is 18-22 ATS as a home favorite.
BYU is 10-10 ATS in its two years on conference play.
BYU is 9-4 ATS in its last 12 games coming off a win.
Under is 3-0 in BYU’s I-A games this year.

Two years ago, WVU (-12) beat BYU 37-7, running for 336 yards.
That was teams’ only meeting since 2016.
Home favorites are 6-3 ATS in Big X conference games.

 

[Udog]

Saturday’s games
Air Force @ Navy (-12.5)
Air Force (1-3)
Air Force is 0-3 vs I-A teams, giving up 49-49-44 points.
Falcons allowed 533.3 yards/game in their losses.
Air Force has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Air Force has 30 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB started one game last year

Since 2015, Air Force is 14-7-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Flyboys are 4-6 ATS in last 10 non-conference games.
Air Force is 3-10 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
Over is 3-0 in their I-A games.
Mountain West non-conference road dogs are 9-5 ATS

Navy (4-0)
Navy won its I-A games, by 14-19-8 points.
Middies ran ball for 315 yards/game in its I-A games.
Navy has 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Middies have 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Horvath has 13 career starts.

Under Newberry, Navy is 3-6 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2020, Middies are 3-8 ATS as a home favorite.
Navy is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 non-conference games.
Navy is 17-6 ATS in last 23 games coming off a win.
AAC home favorites are 4-2 ATS in non-conference games.

Air Force won four of last five series games.
Falcons won 17-6/23-3 in last two visits to Annapolis.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.

Iowa State @ Cincinnati (-1.5)
Iowa State (5-0, 2-0)
Iowa State won its two Big X games, scoring 24-39 points.
Cyclones have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Cyclones have 105 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Becht started 13 games last season.

In his career, Campbell is 37-19-2 ATS as an underdog.
Under Campbell, ISU is 14-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Campbell is 25-11-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Cyclones are 13-8 ATS in last 21 Big X games.
Under is 3-1 in Iowa State’s I-A games.

Cincinnati (3-1, 1-0)
Cincinnati scored 34-37 points in I-A wins, 17 in their loss.
Bearcats have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Bearcats have 81 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Sorsby has 19 career starts.

Under Satterfield, Cincinnati is 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Satterfield is 43-37-1 ATS as a favorite.
In his career, Satterfield is 26-28-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Bearcats won their Big X opener, 37-34 at Kansas.
Cincinnati is 7-18-2 ATS in lat 27 conference games.

Iowa State beat Cincinnati 30-10/34-17 last two years.
Big X home favorites are 6-3 ATS in conference games.

Clemson (-13.5) @ North Carolina
Clemson (1-3, 0-2)
Clemson is 1-3 for the first time since 2004.
Clemson has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Tigers have 136 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Klubnik has 28 career starts.

Tigers lost only road game, 24-21 at Georgia Tech.
In his career, Swinney is 33-32-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2020, Clemson is 10-12 ATS as a road favorite.
Clemson is 8-11 ATS in last 19 ACC games.
Under is 3-1 in Clemson games this year.

North Carolina (2-2)
North Carolina allowed 48-34 points in losses to TCU/UCF.
TCU’s only I-A win was 20-3 at Charlotte.
Tar Heels have 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tar Heels have 155 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Lopez started 11 games at South Alabama last year.

Since 2020, Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS as a home underdog.
Tar Heels are 13-20 ATS in last 33 conference games.
North Carolina has gained only 247.3 yards/game in I-A games.
UNC has allowed 252.3 passing yards/game in I-A tilts.

Clemson is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in last six series games.
Tigers are 2-3 ATS in last five visits to Chapel Hill.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.

Boston College @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Boston College (1-3, 0-2)
BC is 0-3 vs I-A teams, losing by 2-10-4 points.
Eagles gave up 42-30-28 points in those losses.
Eagles have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Eagles have 66 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Lonergan was a backup at Alabama LY.

Boston College is 7-4 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
In his college career, O’Brien is 8-5 ATS as a road dog.
Since 2017, Eagles are 36-21-1 ATS as an underdog.
Under O’Brien, Eagles are 7-4 ATS in ACC games.
BC is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games coming off a loss.

Pittsburgh (2-2, 0-1)
Pitt lost its last two games, 31-24/34-27.
Panthers ran ball for only 46-80 yards in those games.
Panthers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Panthers have 78 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Holstein started 10 games last year.

Pitt is 5-3-1 ATS last nine games as a home favorite
Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 34-30-3 ATS as a favorite
Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 19-25-3 ATS as a home favorite
Under Narduzzi, Panthers are 45-39-1 ATS in ACC games.
Pitt is 4-10 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.

Boston College won three of last four series games.
Eagles are 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Pittsburgh.
ACC home favorites are 3-3 ATS in conference games.

Virginia @ Louisville (-7.5)
Virginia (4-1, 2-1)
Virginia scored 43.3 ppg in its I-A games.
Virginia lost its only road game, 35-31 at NC State.
Cavaliers have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Cavaliers have 182 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Morris started 21 games at North Texas, TCU.

Under Elliott, Virginia is 16-9 ATS as an underdog.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 9-5 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Elliott, Cavaliers are 17-9 ATS in ACC games.
Under Elliott, Virginia is 10-3 ATS in games coming off a win.
Virginia’s I-A games this year all went over the total.

Louisville (4-0, 1-0)
Louisville scored 28-40-34 points vs -A opponents.
Cardinals won ACC opener, 34-27 at Pitt.
Cardinals have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Louisville has 203 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Moss started 10 games at USC

Louisville is 20-10 ATS last 30 games as a home favorite.
Under Brohm, Cardinals are 8-5 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Brohm is 27-25 as a home favorite.
Under Brohm, Cardinals are 8-10 ATS in ACC games.
Under Brohm, Louisville is 11-10 ATS in games coming off a win.

Louisville won last three series games.
Virginia is 1-4 SU/3-2 ATS in last five visits to Louisville.
Under is 7-2 in last nine meetings.

Texas (-5.5) @ Florida
Texas (3-1)
Texas lost its only road game, 14-7 at Ohio State.
Since then, Longhorns beat three stiffs, by 31-17-55 points.
Longhorns have 4 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Longhorns have 47 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Manning has 2 career starts (939 PY last year, 9 TD, 2 INT)

Under Sarkisian, Texas is 7-7 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Sarkisian is 12-12 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 17-20 ATS in conference games..
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 8-11 ATS in road games.
Under is 3-1 in Texas games this season.

Florida (1-3, 0-1)
Gators are 0-3 vs I-A teams, scoring 11 ppg.
Florida’s losses were by 2-10-19 points.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Gators have 98 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Lagway started eight games last year.

Under Napier, Florida is 12-9 ATS as an underdog
In his career, Napier is 23-12-1 ATS as an underdog
Under Napier, Florida is 6-4 ATS as a home underdog
In his career, Napier is 9-4 ATS as a home underdog
Under Napier, Florida is 14-12 ATS in SEC games.
Under is 3-0 in Florida’s I-A games.

Last year, Texas (-22) pounded Florida 49-17, gaining 562 yards.
SEC home teams are 7-5 ATS in conference games.

Vanderbilt @ Alabama (-10.5)
Vanderbilt (5-0, 1-0)
Vandy is 2-0 on road (44-20 at Va Tech/31-7 at South Carolina).
Commodores’ four I-A wins were all by 20+ points.
Commodores have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Commodores have 139 returning starts on OL; lot of transfers.
Senior QB Pavia has started 36 college games

Vandy is 9-2 ATS in last 11 games as an underdog.
Under Lea, Vandy is 14-7 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Lea, Vandy is 17-16 ATS in SEC games (7-2 last nine)
Vandy is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
Over is 3-1 in Vandy’s I-A games.

Alabama (3-1, 1-0)
Alabama beat Georgia 24-21 LW; they lost 31-17 at Florida State
Alabama was held under 120 yards rushing in 3 of its 4 games.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 95 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Simpson threw 25 passes last year.

Alabama is 24-9-1 ATS last 34 games as a home favorite.
In his career, DeBoer is 17-12-1 as a home favorite.
Crimson Tide is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 SEC games.
Alabama is +7 in turnovers this season.
Over is 3-1 in Alabama’s games this season.

Vandy (+23) upset Alabama 40-35 last year.
Alabama had won previous 11 series games (6-4-1 ATS)
Under is 4-2 in last six meetings.

Texas Tech (-11.5) @ Houston
Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0)
Texas Tech won its Big X opener, 34-10 at Utah.
Tech scored 47 ppg in its I-A games.
Red Raiders have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
Red Raiders have 138 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Morton has started 20 games

Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 8-9 ATS in road games.
Under McGuire, Red Raiders are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under McGuire, Tech is 16-11-1 ATS in conference games.
Under McGuire, Tech is 9-12-1 in games coming off a win.

Houston (4-0, 1-0)
Houston scored 32.7 ppg in its three I-A wins.
Cougars beat Colorado 36-20 in its Big X opener.
Houston has 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Cougars have 92 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Weigman started five games at Texas A&M last year.

Since 2021, Houston is 5-4 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Fritz is 11-7 ATS as a home underdog.
Last 3+ years, Houston is 10-16-1 ATS in conference games.
Cougars are 6-11 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
Over is 3-0 in Houston’s I-A games.

Texas Tech is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in last six series games.
Red Raiders are visiting Houston for first time since 2017.
Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.

Miami (-4.5) @ Florida State
Miami FL (4-0)
Miami edged Notre Dame 27-24, beat Florida 26-7.
Hurricanes allowed 71 rushing yards/game in its I-A games.
Miami has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Hurricanes have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Beck started 13 games for Georgia last year.

Under Cristobal, Miami is 7-9 ATS in road games.
Under Cristobal, Miami is 5-6 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Cristobal is 17-14 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Cristobal, Miami is 7-17 ATS in ACC games.
Miami is 9-19 ATS last 28 games coming off a win.

Florida State (3-1, 0-1)
Florida State lost its ACC opener, 46-38 at Virginia.
Seminoles ran for 230-256 yards vs Alabama/Virginia.
FSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Seminoles have 129 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Castellanos started 20 games at Boston College.

Since 2016, Florida State is 7-9 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 5-5 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Norvell is 8-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Norvell, Seminoles are 19-23 ATS in conference games.
In his career, Norvell is 39-37-1 ATS in conference games.
Over is 3-0 in Florida State’s I-A games.

Florida State won three of last four meetings.
Miami is 2-5 SU/5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Tallahassee.
Under is 11-3 in last 14 series games.

Mississippi State @ Texas A&M (-14.5)
Mississippi State (4-1, 0-1)
Miss State lost its SEC opener LW, 41-34 to Tennessee.
Bulldogs won only road game, 34-17 at Southern Miss.
Bulldogs have 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Bulldogs have 91 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Shapen has 27 career starts.

Bulldogs scored 32.5 ppg in its I-A games.
MSU is 12-7 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog.
MSU is 7-11-1 ATS last 19 games coming off a loss.
Bulldogs are 6-3 ATS in last nine SEC games.
SEC home favorites are 4-5 ATS in conference games.

Texas A&M (3-0, 1-0)
Aggies won SEC opener 16-10 over Auburn.
Road underdogs covered all four of their games.
Aggies have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
A&M has 156 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Reed started eight games last year.

Under Elko, A&M is 2-7 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Elko is 9-9 ATS as a home favorite.
Aggies are 7-12-3 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win
A&M is 8-14-3 ATS in last 25 SEC games.
In his career, Elko is 13-12 ATS in conference games.
Over is 3-1 in A&M’s games this year.

A&M won four of last six series games.
Teams split last four meetings in College Station.
Last four meetings went over the total.

UNLV (-3.5) @ Wyoming
UNLV (4-0)
UNLV scored 38-30-41 points in its I-A wins.
UNLV has 3 starters back on offense, 2 on defense.
New coach Mullen is 107-61 in his college career.
Rebels have 37 starts returning on offensive line; lot of transfers.
Junior QB Colandrea started 11 games at Virginia LY.

Rebels are 7-2 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
In his career, Mullen is 19-17 ATS as a road favorite.
UNLV is 16-6 ATS last 22 games coming off a win.
In his career, Mullen is 57-48-2 ATS in conference games.
Rebels allowed 27.3 ppg in its three I-A games.

Wyoming (2-2)
Wyoming lost its last two games, giving up 31-37 points.
Cowboys’ only I-A win was 10-0 at Akron.
Cowboys have 9 starters back on offense, 3 on defense.
Wyoming has 87 starts returning on offensive line.
Soph QB Anderson started three games last year.

Last two games, Cowboys allowed 541-497 total yards.
Wyoming is 18-14 ATS last 32 games as an underdog.
Wyoming is 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a home underdog.
Cowboys are 10-5 ATS in last 15 Mountain West games.
Wyoming is 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.

Wyoming won five of last seven series games.
UNLV is 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS in last six visits to Laramie.
Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.

Kansas (-5.5) @ Central Florida
Kansas (3-2, 1-1)
Kansas scored 34.3 ppg in splitting four I-A games.
Jayhawks allowed 42-37 points in their losses.
Jayhawks have 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Kansas has 82 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Daniels started 12 games last year.

Kansas lost 42-31 at Missouri in its only road game.
In his career, Leipold is 18-11 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Kansas is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 Big X games.
Kansas is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.

Central Florida (3-1, 0-1)
UCF lost its Big X opener, 34-20 at K-State.
K-State ran ball for 266 yards in that game.
Knights have 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
UCF has 59 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Jackson started one game at Indiana last year.

Since 2017, UCF is 3-0 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Frost is 5-4-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Frost is 26-25-2 ATS in conference games.
UCF is 3-9-1 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.

Kansas (+2) ran for 399 yards, beat UCF 51-22 in only meeting, in 2023.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 6

FCS - Friday

DUNKEL INDEX PREDICTION FOR RHODE ISLAND AT BROWN​

Date: Friday, October 3
Time: 6 ;30 PM ET
Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 58.699; Brown 49.914
Dunkel Line & Total: Rhode Island by 9; 53
Vegas Line & Total: Rhode Island by 14 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+14 1/2); Over


DUNKEL INDEX PREDICTION FOR COLUMBIA AT PRINCETON
Date: Friday, October 3
Time: 12:00 PM ET
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 48.664; Princeton 52.643
Dunkel Line & Total: Princeton by 4; 52
Vegas Line & Total: Princeton by 7 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbia (+7 1/2); Over

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday, October 3​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
CHAR at USF	07:00 PM	CHAR +27.5	+500
WKU at DEL	07:00 PM	O 62.0	+500
UNM at SJSU	10:00 PM	UNM +2.5	+500
WVU at BYU	10:30 PM	WVU +20.0 U 46.5	+500 +500
CSU at SDSU	10:30 PM	U 41.5	+500

 

[Cnotes53]

CNOTES COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR OCTOBER !

10/03/2025.....................1 - 5 - 0......................16.66%.................- 22.50
10/02/2025.....................1 - 1 - 0......................50.00%..................- 0.50

TOTALS..........................1 - 6 - 0......................14.38%..................- 23.00