The Dozen: Avoiding Disaster
November 18, 2017
It's the calm before the final storm as far as the college football schedule goes. What we'll see beginning on Thanksgiving may as well be the gridiron version of feast week, but there are still some strong offerings this week and obstacles must be overcome by the heavy favorites. Who won't handle business? We begin with the only matchup between ranked teams, which rates just ahead of the QB showdown everyone is talking about. Here's everything you need to know to handicap Saturday's top matchups:
1. Michigan at Wisconsin, 12 p.m. ET: Expect this game to be one up front. Both teams are ranked among the nation's top three defensive units, so the element of surprise is likely to matter greatly. Who is going to be less conservative? The Wolverines rank No. 3 while the Badgers are first in total defense, and while the level of competition may not be considered all that great, these units have gotten it done consistently and must be respected. Will Jim Harbaugh show off a bit of a gambler's heart on the road and trust talented freshman Brandon Peters, whose numbers are great in his two starts (329 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs), but will be playing in the most hostile environment he's seen to date? Will the Badgers have faith in their QB Alex Hornibrook after he threw a pair of pick-sixes last week, giving him a disconcerting 11 in Big Ten play? How long the leash is on these guys is likely going to decide this one.
After a night filled with rain and some snow, conditions are actually expected to be above freezing amid sunny skies if my AccuWeather app lives up to billing. The Wolverines won last year's game 14-7 in Ann Arbor and Wisconsin only has LB T.J. Edwards back with T.J Watt and Vince Biegel now in the NFL, so is this the game where their exit finally makes its mark. The crowd at Camp Randall should be a factor as the Badgers attempt to close out their seventh perfect season at home since 2003 to try and clear the first major hurdle of a three-step process to try and land in the national playoffs with a perfect record. The Badgers will definitely miss WR Quintez Cephus, but have worked without him already. Behind a tremendous offensive line, freshman RB Jonathan Taylor has been the most prolific back this season but starting center Tyler Biadasz has been limited in practices. Michigan is hoping top rusher Karan Higdon can play through an ankle injury since they'll need his toughness badly here. Top corner Lavert Hill is in concussion protocol and a major question mark. Stud DE Rashaan Gary is likely to play through a shoulder issue, which makes NT Maurice Hurst even more of a force.
2. UCLA at USC, 8 p.m. ET: It's Josh Rosen at Sam Darnold here, or at least it seems that way. They'll be just two of 22 on the field at the same time, but you're unlikely to hear about anyone else. While Darnold entered the season as the presumed No. 1 pick, there's plenty of sentiment Darnold has passed him since he has fewer interceptions and throws a better deep ball. Rosen has answered some concerns over his attitude by being there for teammates all season, playing hurt and bloodied up. He helped take down Arizona State last week and can still get the Bruins to a bowl game if he pulls off an upset here or a Rose Bowl win over Cal next week.
The Trojans are playing for far more. Despite the Darnold dismay, haveey've lost once in league play, having already clinched the Pac-12 South and a berth in the championship game against whatever team wins the North. USC has the more talented group, but that's been the case before and Jim Mora had won the first three meetings as Bruins head coach before Clay Helton stepped in at USC to take the last two. The Trojans have been down a few key offensive linemen and hope future pro Rasheem Green can play, but will have Uchenna Nwosu and top corner Iman Marshall available to try and slow down UCLA. The Bruins look to have key safety Jaleel Wadood back after he sat out last week with a neck injury. The Bruins' No. 1 receiver Darren Andrews, who scored nine TDs this season, tore his ACL earlier this month, making Rosen's task of getting on the board with a win against USC even tougher.
3. Virginia at Miami, 12 p.m. ET: This one is all about the U. It's been a great second season for Bronco Mendenhall in Charlottesville since the Cavaliers are bowl eligible for the first time since '11 and playing with house money entering this one and next Friday's date with Virginia Tech. Mendenhall lost to Mark Richt's Hurricanes 34-14 in last season's home finale, so there's some payback involved in this one, since Miami is playing to remain unbeaten and continue momentum on their Senior Day, having turned Hard Rock Stadium into a genuine homefield advantage again.
Losing is no dealbreaker since inclusion in the college football playoff is likely to come down to beating Clemson in the ACC Championship game anyway, which is why you have to be wary here laying the points. After such an impressive performance against Notre Dame, it's easy to throw on that turnover chain, but the atmosphere is going to be different. There won't be that same sense of putting on a show and sending a message in a night game, but rather, staving off an upset in 80 degree weather. The Cavs have a physical defense and that happens to be Mendenhall's specialty, so this is a strong test for QB Malik Rosier to continue proving doubters wrong. Miami has won three of four in this series and last lost at home in 2011.
4. Arizona at Oregon, 7 p.m. ET: Rich Rodriguez has bounced back from his first losing season and now looks to pay back the Ducks for a 51-13 Pac-12 title game loss suffered in his most successful season back in '14. The opportunity is there, should QB Khalil Tate finish strong on the road here and next week at Arizona State, for him to get an invite to Manhattan for the Heisman ceremony. In last week's 49-28 win over Oregon State, Tate broke out for his fifth 70-plus yard TD run of the season, and has done it in all but one of the last six games. He finished with 206 rushing yards, but only threw the ball seven times and was picked off once. He'll face a rejuvenated Ducks defense that gets back top LB Troy Dye, who had been in a walking boot. They rank 30th in the nation against the run.
Oregon really benefited from its bye week and is expected to get back talented sophomore QB Justin Herbert, who broke his collarbone on Sept. 30. The Ducks have gone 1-4 without him but can still reach a bowl in Willie Taggart's first season if they win here or against Oregon State next week. With Herbert back, that seems likely, and could set this up as a shootout since he can really sling it and Oregon would likely be in a far better place, record-wise, had he not been injured. Despite being just 5-5 and Tate's electric presence, the Ducks are a 3-point favorite at home and this total has been set at 76.
5. Kentucky at Georgia, 3:30 p.m. ET: Fun fact, there's only one SEC game on this list, and it wouldn't be this high if it weren't for the curiosity over how the Dawgs are going to bounce back from tasting their first loss. Even after being crushed by Auburn, they'll get their shot at a national title in the conference championship game provided they handle business as a heavy favorite the next two weeks. Most of the league's big boys are resting up with overmatched foes, although Nick Saban will be scouting out Mercer's screen game. Georgia dropped consecutive games twice in Kirby Smart's first season, only following up a loss with a win after lengthy preparation prior to a Liberty Bowl win over TCU. He's looking to prove he can get a team refocused to rebound with a conventional bounce-back win for the first time as a head coach, coming in 0-for-2. Freshman QB Jake Fromm was harrassed after leading UGA to a touchdown on its opening drive, so this is a chance to demonstrate some resiliency for him and his offensive line.
Kentucky has won seven games in consecutive seasons for the first time since Rich Brooks departed in '08 and is now looking to shock everyone by running the table and posting a 10-win season if it claims a bowl victory. The Wildcats are 3-1 on the road, but got trounced 45-7 in their most challenging game at Mississippi State. Sophomore RB Benny Snell became UK's all-time leader in rushing touchdowns last week and will look to again spark a rushing attack that did enough damage to put a scare in Georgia last season, losing just 27-24. Most of the key cogs from last year's defense are back for Kentucky, so if there's any hangover from last week's loss, this could certainly get interesting. The 'Dawgs have covered four straight in this series.
6. Cal at Stanford, 8 p.m. ET: These next two games are lumped together given the crowded state of the Pac-12 North, as a champion and foe for USC won't be decided until next week. This year's "Big Game" also sees Justin Wilcox looking to get bowl eligible in his first season, something predecessor Sonny Dykes only managed once. Getting it in this rivarly game, on the road at the "Farm" would be all the sweeter, especially since they haven't managed a win in this series since a 34-28 upset back in '09. The Bears opened the season winning at North Carolina but have gone 0-3 since SU and ATS, getting blown out at Oregon, Washington and Colorado. Maybe staying in-state will help, since they'll have one last crack at a bowl berth next week at UCLA should they fail here. Cal's last three games have all gone over the posted total.
Stanford needs help from Washington next week since the Cougs, but beat the Huskies 30-22 last Friday night to create an opportunity to salvage a down season. Bryce Love ran for three TDs to revitalize his Heisman chances, while redshirt freshman QB K.J. Costello threw for a career-high 211 yards. That type of versatility is going to be key against a Cal defense that figures to be well-disguised but gave up 45 points to Arizona and then 44 at Colorado in its first two weeks without top LB Devante Downs, who was lost for the season in mid-October. Last year's game finished 45-31, and the Cardinal has been perfect under David Shaw, scoring at least 35 points in each of the past four games, a streak that began with a 63-13 home win in '13.
7. Utah at Washington, 10:30 p.m ET: If Cal manages to upset Stanford, the Huskies can win the North by taking care of business here and at home in next week's Apple Cup. They'll know the result by the time this kicks off, so there could be a buzzkill effect if the results come in as expected. Then again, Chris Petersen's teams are typically far too disciplined for that and have followed up their two previous in-season losses over the last two years by scoring 44 points in wins. The Huskies will be without suspended middle linebacker Azeem Victor, who was arrested last weekend, so the defense likely won't be up to its usual standards. Coming off their worst performance of the season, it will be interesting to see how they respond.
The Utes are in the midst of a down season after following up a 4-0 start with a four-game losing streak, but they typically make a habit of hanging around. Kyle Whittingham won in his last trip to Seattle in Petersen's second season, but Washington returned the favor last year, 31-24. Quarterback Tyler Huntley can make plays with his feet and his arm, but missed top target Darren Carrington last week and could against be without him due to a leg injury. Defensive lineman Kyle Fitts and guard Jordan Agasiva may not play, which would seriously impact Utah's chances to pull an upset. A loss here would require the Utes to beat Colorado at home next week to four, which would make 12 in 14 years.
8. Navy at Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. ET: The Fighting Irish close out their home schedule with this game and play at Stanford next week, but even though they landed at No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings, they need a significant amount of help and some style points to overcome last week's massive disappointment in South Florida. Both teams are looking to run and then strike vial the element of surprise via the passing game, but their styles on the ground are drastically different. It's likely that rain is going to affect the Midshipmen more since they pitch so much more often, but this is certainly a game where fumbles and missed tackles are likely to swing matters.
Irish QB Brandon Wimbush was benched after tossing three picks against the Canes, but he'll be back out there looking to bounce back against a vulnerable Navy secondary if the weather cooperates. There figures to be a heavy dose of Josh Adams whether there's rain or shine. Meanwhile, Navy has major issues with Zack Abey nursing a bum shoulder and Malcolm Perry, who took over last week after typically lining up at slotback, doubtful to play due to an ankle injury. He ran for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns in last week's win over SMU, snapping a three-game losing streak in a 43-40 thriller. Navy doesn't disclose injuries, so unless work leaks out, it's hard to like its chances to pull an upset with its top playmakers potentially sidelined. Navy beat Brian Kelly in his first season back in 2010 and won last year's game 28-27. The Irish are 76-13-1 all-time in the series.
9. Fresno State at Wyoming, 2 p.m. ET: The big question here revolves around prized QB prospect Josh Allen, who may miss his first collegiate start for Wyoming due to a shoulder injury. The Cowboys suffered their only Mountain West to unbeaten Mountain Division leaders Boise State, so they have no room for error. Fresno State has a cushion in the West and may reach the league title game regardless of what happens here, but since it faces Boise next week, it can then save all its tricks for some hardware if it takes care of business here.
The Bulldogs do their damage on defense, but Wyoming actually comes in ranking first in the conference in points allowed. While Allen's availability won't be known until closer to kickoff, it's likely that Fresno would contain what has been an inconsistent Cowboys offense if he's unable to go. Since Allen hadn't practiced at all through Wednesday, backup Nick Smith would be prepared to play, but saddled with a major challenge. Head coach Craig Bohl won his only meeting with the Bulldogs at Fresno 45-17 back in '14, but now has to face esteemed counterpart Jeff Tedford, who has executed a swift, impressive turnaround.
10. Nebraska at Penn State, 4 p.m. ET: Although a lot of the shine is off this season for the Nittany Lions after grueling back-to-back losses to the Buckeyes and Spartans, they can still pull off the first back-to-back 11-win seasons since Joe Paterno had one last run nearly a decade ago. Nebraska has actually won the last four meetings between the schools, but that was prior to James Franklin's watch, so when you combine that with it being Senior Day in Happyy Valley, they're unlikely to suffer a letdown. Nebraska, on the other hand, appears to have quit on Mike Riley and his staff, which could make next week's home date against rival Iowa quite the scene. After being obliterated 54-21 at Minnesota last week, losing here guarantees the 'Huskers won't have a winning record for the first time since '07.
The Nittany Lions have had major offensive line issues and are hoping to get lineman Ryan Bates back in there for a boost. LB Manny Bowen was suspended for a violation of team rules. Nebraska is expected to start Tanner Lee after he cleared concussion protocol, which moved the massive line a little further under four touchdowns since backup Patrick O'Brien is so inexperienced. Nebraska's only prayer here is to hit a few big passing plays, avoid turnovers and keep Saquon Barkley from getting going, which would mean that Penn State's problems up front in surrendering tackles for loss would spring up again. Rain will be a factor here, which combined with an early sunset, will make for ugly conditions that could affect both teams given their likely interference with both the read-option and downfield passing game.
11. Texas Tech vs. TCU, 12 p.m. ET: The final two games that command the most attention both come out of the Big 12 and don't feature Oklahoma, which has a road date against winless Kansas that would sew up their berth in the league championship game. The Sooners are rightfully favored by 37.5 points. TCU remains the favorite to play Oklahoma again since it owns head-to-head wins over the teams its locked in a second-place tie with, Oklahoma State and West Virginia. Both will be rooting for the Red Raiders here, hoping Kliff Kingsbury can avoid a Friday must-win at Texas by taking care of business here to earn their fourth bowl berth in six years. It's expected to be extremely windy here, which is likely to affect both fast-paced offenses.
Gary Patterson will be relying on true freshman backup QB Shawn Robinson, who will replace veteran senior Kenny Hill, who did not make the trip to Lubbock for what appear to be disciplinary reasons. Strong safety Niko Small and kicker Jonathan Song also didn't travel, while LBs Travin Howard and Montrel Wilson did but will be game-time decisions. Leading rusher Darius Anderson is out with a foot injury. The Red Raiders also have some concerns regarding WR Derrick Willies. The Horned Frogs have had issues with Texas Tech in the past, losing at home last year in double overtime. Patterson has been around long enough to that Kingsbury was starting in Lubbock when he got this gig, but never schemed against him since TCU wasn't a Big 12 member in 2001-02. To avoid falling behind 3-2 in head-to-head meetings, he'll need his short-handed team to bounce back in the face of attrition to avoid a third straight road defeat that would derail their season.
12. Kansas State at Oklahoma State, 3:30 p.m. ET: The Cowboys just have to keep winning and see where that leaves them when the dust settles. Luckily, they have slumping K-State and Kansas coming through town this week and next, making it likely they'll be sitting pretty if the Horned Frogs stumble. Wind is going to be a factor in Stillwater as well, but shouldn't be a detriment to Oklahoma State given how well it has run the ball this season. QB Mason Rudolph is the nation's leading passer and faces the worst-ranked pass defense among all Power-5 schools that needs all the help it can get from Mother Nature here. With a 310-yard outing, Rudolph would reach 4,000 for the season.
If wind gusts are indeed a concern, K-State is equipped to win a grind-it-out game given its ability to control possession and slow down the tempo, but it remains to be seen if QB Alex Delton returns to the lineup after missing time. Senior Jesse Ertz hasn't played in over a month due to a knee issue, so redshirt freshman Skylar Thompson is likely to get another start. Bill Snyder hasn't missed making a bowl since returning to the sideline in 2009, but needs a win here or home next Saturday against upstart Iowa State to keep that streak intact. In that span, Oklahoma State has won five of seven meetings, but never by more than 10 points, making this 20-point spread a potential wake-up call to his team, according to Snyder.
Others: Texas at West Virginia, Boise State at Air Force, NC State at Wake Forest, UCF at Temple, Syracuse at Louisville, Texas A&M at Ole Miss, Minnesota at Northwestern, Georgia Tech at Duke, Mississippi State at Arkansas, SMU at Memphis, Purdue at Iowa, Pitt at Virginia Tech, Maryland at Michigan State, FIU at FAU, Army at North Texas, LSU at Tennessee.
