Cnotes53 2017 NFL Trends/Stats/News/Picks Thru The Super Bowl

[Cnotes53]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Thursday's game
Titans (6-3) @ Steelers (7-2)? Steelers are quiet 7-2; they won last four games (3-1 vs spread), are 2-1 as a home favorite, with wins by 17-15 points and a loss to Jaguars. Tennessee won its last four games, last three by 3-3-4 points; Mariota is banged up (shoulder/ankle)- check status. Titans are 2-2 on road, losing at Houston, Miami, beating Jaguars/Browns- they were favored in 3 of those 4 games. Steelers won four of last six series games; Titans are 2-3 in last five visits to Steel City, losing by 27-3-21 points. AFC North favorites are 4-7 vs spread outside the division, 3-4 at home; AFC South underdogs are 7-4, 4-3 on road. Over is 6-2 in Titans? last eight games; under is 8-1 in Steeler games this season.

Sunday's games
Lions (5-4) @ Bears (3-6)? Detroit won seven of last eight series games; last four were all decided by 4 or less points. Lions won three of last four visits to Chicago, winning by 2-6-4 points. Detroit won its last two games, scoring 30-38 points; they?re 3-1 on road, with only loss 52-38 in New Orleans- their offense gave up three TD?s that day. Detroit is 2-3 if they score less than 30 points. Bears lost last two games, scoring two TD?s on last 22 drives; Chicago is 2-3 at home, 4-0 as a home underdog- dogs covered all five of their home games. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-12-2 vs spread. Four of last five Detroit games went over total; under is 6-3 in Chicago games. Bears stayed under their team total in seven of nine games.

Chiefs (6-3) @ Giants (1-8)? Chiefs lost three of last four games after a 5-0 start; they won/covered their last three post-bye games. KC is 3-2 on road, but lost last two away games, at Oakland/Dallas. Chiefs are 2-1 as a road favorite this season. Giants lost last three games, allowing 82 points in last two games; they?re 0-4 at home, scoring 14 ppg- they?re 3-4 vs spread as an underdog this year- their last three losses were by 17-34-10 points. Giants are 10-3 in this series, winning all six matchups played here- KC won last meeting 31-7 in ?13. AFC West favorites are 4-7-1 vs spread outside the division; NC East home teams are 5-8, 1-3 as home dogs. Over is 5-2-2 in Chief games this season, 5-2 in last seven Giant games.

Buccaneers (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-5)? Short week for Miami, after its dismal loss in Charlotte Monday night. Dolphins lost last three games, are 2-1 at home, with three games decided by total of 12 points. Bucs snapped 5-game skid with 15-10 win over Jets; they scored total of 28 points in last three games. Tampa Bay won four of last five meetings, with three of less four decided by 3 or less points. Bucs lost three of their four visits to Miami. NFC South underdogs are 3-4-1 vs spread outside the division, 2-2-1 on road. AFC East favorites are 6-4-1, 3-3-1 at home. This game was supposed to be in Week 1, but was moved here because of the hurricanes. Last three Tampa Bay games stayed under total; last four Miami games went over.

Ravens (4-5) @ Packers (5-4)? Baltimore lost three of last four games, with two losses by 3 points; they?re 2-2 SU in true road games. Ravens are 3-8-1 vs spread in last 12 games as a road favorite. Baltimore is 12-3 SU/ATS in last 15 post-bye games. Green Bay lost three of last four games; Hundley got his first NFL win Sunday. 7 of last 10 Baltimore TD?s were either scored by the defense, or on drives of 42 or less yards. Ravens are 1-4 vs Green Bay, with only win 48-3 in ?05; they?re 0-3 in Lambeau, losing by 18-8-13 points. AFC North non-divisional faves are 4-7 vs spread, 1-3 on road; NFC North home favorites are 4-2 vs spread. Last five Baltimore games went over total; six of last eight Packer games went over- lot of that was with Rodgers playing.

Rams (7-2) @ Vikings (7-2)? Case Keenum was 7-7 as Rams? starting QB in 2015-16; he was replaced by Goff in Week 10 LY, with Rams 4-5. Minnesota won its last five games, covered last four; they?re 4-1 at home, 2-1 as a home favorite. Vikings were held to 9-7 points in their two losses. Rams won six of last seven games; they?re 4-0 in true road games, scoring 38.5 ppg (14 TD?s on 44 drives). LA is 2-0 vs spread as an underdog this year. Vikings won last four series games, three by 14+ points; Rams lost 21-18 in OT in last meeting here, in ?15. Rams? last win in Minnesota was in ?06. NFC West non-divisional road underdogs are 3-5 vs spread; NFC North favorites are 5-2, 4-2 at home. Over is 6-3 in Ram games, 3-0 in last three Minnesota games.

Cardinals (4-5) @ Texans (3-6)? Stanton got hurt last week, Savage was awful, so this looms as Gabbert vs Yates in battle of 3rd-string QB?s. Cardinals are 3-0 when they allow 15 or less points, 1-5 when they allow more; Redbirds are 2-2 in true road games, winning at Indy/SF, losing at Detroit/Philly. Houston lost its last three games; they were outscored 34-7 in 2nd half of last two games. Texans allowed 8+ yards/pass attempt in each of their last three games. Home side won all three series games; Cardinals lost 30-19 in only visit here, in ?05. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 5-5 vs spread, 2-2 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-4 vs spread, 3-1 at home. Under is 7-1 in last eight Arizona games, 3-0 in Texan games not started by Watson.

Jaguars (6-3) @ Browns (0-9)? Jacksonville won its last three games, allowing 8 ppg; they?re 3-1 on road, 1-1 as road favorite, with wins by 22-21-27 points, with lone loss to Jets in Swamp Stadium. Five of Jaguars? six wins were by 16+ points; in their last five games, they outscored opponents 57-16 in second half. Cleveland is 2-7 vs spread this year, 2-2 at home; three of their four home losses were by exactly 3 points. Jaguars won last two meetings, 32-28/24-6; teams split last 10 meetings. Jaguars 6-2 in visits to Lake Erie. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 4-6-1, 0-2 on road; AFC North underdogs are 6-4-1 vs spread, 1-0 at home. Under is 4-1 in last five Jaguar games, 1-3 in Cleveland?s last four games.

Redskins (4-5) @ Saints (7-2)? New Orleans won its last seven games (6-1 vs spread); they allowed 10+ yards/pass attempt in first two games, then held last seven opponents to less than 5.0 ypa? they?re 2-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 14-8-20 points, and a loss to the Patriots. Saints ran ball for 150+ yards in four of last five games; that takes heat off their offense and aging QB Brees. Redskins are 2-2 as a road underdog. Washington won four of last five meetings, scoring 40-47 points in last two; they?re 7-0 in last seven visits to Bourbon Street- their last loss in New Orleans was in 1973. NFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 7-3 vs spread; NFC South home favorites are 4-7. Under is 5-2 in Saints? last seven games, over is 4-1 in Redskins? last five.

Bills (5-4) @ Chargers (3-6)? Peterman makes first NFL start here; Bills were unhappy with Taylor going thru his progressions too slowly. Buffalo lost its last two games, allowing 492 rushing yards, 81 points; they?re 1-3 on road, 2-1 as a road underdog, losing by 6-4-13 points, with the lone win 23-17 in Atlanta. Bills are -1 in turnovers in their losses, +12 in their wins. Chargers lost their last two games; four of their six losses were by 3 or less points. LA is 0-1 as a favorite this season. Chargers won four of last five series games; Bills lost their last five visits to San Diego- last time they beat Bolts in California was 1981. AFC East non-divisional road underdogs are 5-3 vs spread; AFC West favorites are 4-7-1 against the spread, 3-5 at home. Last four Buffalo games went over the total, last four Charger games stayed under.

Bengals (3-6) @ Broncos (3-6)? Denver lost its last five games (0-5 vs spread), thanks to a -12 turnover ratio in those games; they lost last two home games, to Giants/Patriots. Broncos desperately need a QB. Bengals lost three of last four games; they?re 1-4 on road, with losses by 3-15-16-4 points. Cincy ran total of 87 plays in its last two games; their opponents ran 162 plays. Denver won six of last seven series games, winning 20-17/29-17 the last two years; Bengals lost their last 10 visits to Denver- their last win here was in 1975. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 6-4-1 vs spread, 4-4-1 on road; AFC West favorites are 4-7-1 vs spread, 3-5 at home. Last three Bronco games, three of last four Cincinnati games went over the total.

Patriots (7-2) vs Raiders (4-5) (Mexico City)? New England won its last five games (4-1 vs spread); they outscored last three opponents 59-16 in first half. Patriots won field position in last three games, by 7-10-14 yards. Oakland won three of last four post-bye games; they covered their last five; Raiders lost five of their last seven games; 2-2 vs spread as an underdog. Oakland has only two takeaways (-9) in their last six games- they allowed 88 points n their last three games. Patriots won last four series games; Oakland?s last series win was in 2002. AFC East favorites are 6-4-1 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-5. Four of last five Patriot games stayed under total; over is 4-1 in last five Oakland games.

Eagles (7-2) @ Cowboys (5-4)? Dallas allowed 8 sacks in Atlanta LW, with LT Smith injured; his replacement allowed 6 of the 8 sacks. They ran ball for only 107 yards with Elliott suspended. Cowboys are 2-2 at home, losing to Rams by 5, Packers by 4- under Garrett, they?re 7-5-2 as a home underdog. Eagles are 1-4 vs spread in last five post-bye games. Philly won its last seven games, covered its last six; they?re 3-1 on road, winning by 13-2-5 points, with only loss 27-20 at Kansas City. Teams split their last eight meetings; Eagles won three of last four visits here, with last two games here going to OT. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 9-8-1 vs spread. Four of last six Dallas games, five of last seven Eagle games went over the total.

Monday's game
Falcons (5-4) @ Seahawks (6-3)? In its last five games, Atlanta lost field position by 9-7-11-16-3 yards; they?re 3-2 on road, losing 23-7 in Foxboro, 20-17 at Carolina. Seattle won five of its last six games; they?re 1-3 as a home favorite, winning home games by 3-28-3 points, with a 17-14 loss to Washington. Falcons won five of last seven series games; they whacked Seattle 36-20 in playoffs last year, after losing 36-20 here during regular season. Teams split last six series games played here. Atlanta lost four of last six games; NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-4-1 vs spread, 2-2-1 on road. NFC West favorites are 5-5, 3-3 at home. Last six Atlanta games stayed under the total, as have four of Seahawks? last five games.

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL

Thursday, November 16

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Thursday Night Football Betting Preview and Odds: Titans at Steelers
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Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 44)

The Pittsburgh Steelers have not looked the part of a dominant team but they keep finding ways to win and are tied with the New England Patriots for the best record in the AFC. The Steelers will go for their fifth consecutive victory when they host the visiting Tennessee Titans on Thursday night in a matchup of division leaders.

Pittsburgh extended its winning streak in dramatic fashion, rallying from a 14-point deficit in the second half to beat Indianapolis 20-17 on a last-second field goal by Chris Boswell. "There was a lot of negativity that we will talk about," Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said after his team improved to 5-1 on the road. "But we'll talk about negativity with a win. That's my preference." The Titans also have won four in a row to join Jacksonville atop the AFC South, rallying for a last-minute 24-20 win over Cincinnati -- its third straight victory over an AFC North rival of Pittsburgh. "I use the word resilient a lot, but I think that's the makeup of this team," Tennessee coach Mike Mularkey said. "It's amazing that they believe in themselves, they just know we always have a chance to win."

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NBC, NFL Network.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 6.5-point home favorites and as of Wednesday night that number has been bet up slightly to -7. The total hit betting boards at 43.5 and has been bumped up slightly to 44.

POWER RANKINGS: Titans (-1.5) - Steelers (-3.5) + home field (-3) = Steelers -5.

INJURY REPORT:

Titans - G Quinton Spain (Probable, Toe), TE Delanie Walker (Probable, Forearm), QB Marcus Mariota (Probable, Ankle), LB Nate Palmer (Questionable, Ankle), LB Aaron Wallace (Questionable, Back), WR Harry Douglas (I-R, Knee), QB Alex Tanney (I-R, Foot), WR Tajae' Sharpe (I-R, Foot), LB Victor Ochi (I-R, Knee).

Steelers - WR Martavis Bryant (Probable, Illness), LB James Harrison (Questionable, Back), TE Vance McDonald (Questionable, Ankle), S Mike Mitchell (Doubful, Ankle), CB Joe Haden (Out, Leg), CB Cameron Sutton (Questionable, Hamstring), LB Keion Adams (I-R, Shoulder).

ABOUT THE TITANS (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS, 6-3 O/U): Tennessee must find a way to get its offense on track on the road after scoring a combined 36 points in its last three away from home, especially with four of the next five games away from Nashville. Quarterback Marcus Mariota has thrown seven touchdown passes against six interceptions, but he has led three-game winning drives during the winning streak and is coming off a 51-yard rushing day versus Cincinnati. Running back DeMarco Murray scored three TDs in last week's win while backup Derrick Henry added 52 yards on 11 carries. Tennessee has tightened up its rushing defense over the past four games, allowing a combined 277 yards in that span.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS, 1-8 O/U): Ben Roethlisberger owns a completion percentage of 61.1 and passer rating of 83.8 - his lowest marks since the 2008 season - but he rallied Pittsburgh with a pair of scoring passes in the second half last week. Le'Veon Bell, who is averaging 29.5 carries the past four games, leads the league with 840 rushing yards while wideout Antonio Brown has an NFL-best 882 yards, although he has only 12 receptions over the past four games. Rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster continues to thrive with a touchdown catch in each of the past three games. Pittsburgh is second in the league, allowing an average of 16.4, and has held its last four opponents to 17 or fewer.

TRENDS:

* Titans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
* Steelers are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 6-2 in Titans' last 8 games overall.
* Under is 7-0 in Steelers' last 7 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is siding with the road underdog Titans at a rate of 54 percent and the Over is getting 60 of the totals action

 

[Cnotes53]

TNF - Titans at Steelers
November 16, 2017

Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7, 44), 8:30 pm ET, NBC/NFLN

Marcus Mariota picked up the Titans with his third game-winning drive of the season to defeat Cincinnati last week, taking his team 73 yards in 12 plays. Ben Roethlisberger completed his 40th fourth-quarter comeback after a brutal start against the Colts where the Steelers flirted with disaster by going down 17-3 and entering the fourth quarter down by 8.

Neither team is playing particularly well, yet lead their division and have a chance to solidify a run at homefield advantage alongside the Patriots. For the Titans, a team that has a negative point differential despite their winning record and four-game winning streak, this is an opportunity to take a huge step forward.

The Titans' victims on this current run, the Colts, Browns, Ravens and Bengals, all have losing records, yet they've covered only once in the last six games. While they've defeated Seattle at home, beating the Steelers on the road could really provide a psychological boost that would ultimately make the difference in finishing ahead of Jacksonville.

Mariota has played hurt most of the season -- Tennessee's last loss came in Miami with Matt Cassel at the helm -- and his style is risky since he consistently takes hits, but this is an opportunity to excel with a full compliment of weapons against an excellent defense.

Receivers Corey Davis and Eric Decker are just now healthy enough to start producing results alongside tight ends Delanie Walker and Jonnu Smith. With Derrick Henry and DeMarco Murray running the ball behind an offensive line that's back intact, they've got a fighting chance to continue improving despite beginning a stretch of four of five on the road.

Pittsburgh has seen the 'under' prevail in eight of their nine contests. The defense that has helped key this season's success by surrendering 18 or fewer points in seven of nine is fast and really gets after teams. They attack and have shined in the red zone against the likes of Alex Smith and Matthew Stafford, holding Detroit to five field goals. Tennessee has an opportunity to frustrate a Steelers offense that ranks 31st in the red zone, as 80-year-old Dick LeBeau returns to face his long-time former employer.

Protege Keith Butler has done a great job with the Steelers this season, helping pick up offensive coordinator Todd Haley for his conservative, often crippling approach. Roethlisberger has been off at times this season, but with weapons Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell both healthy, Pittsburgh has a chance to produce more points.

Bell ran for over 200 yards the last time these teams got together. Brown has seen rookie Juju Smith-Schuster and Martavis Bryant step up of late, so Roethlisberger has plenty of options as he looks to continue a run that has seen him win five straight night games, improving a 10-1 mark in primetime. The Steelers will be wearing all black "Color Rush" uniforms and be the sharper-looking group on the field unless you're a big fan of that smurf-looking Titans Blue. A clear crisp night with temperatures in the high 30s is expected.

Tennessee Titans
Season win total: 9 (Over -110, Under -110)
Odds to win AFC South: 10/11 to 5/4
Odds to win AFC: 15/1 to 15/1
Odds to win Super Bowl: 30/1 to 30/1

Pittsburgh Steelers
Season win total: 10.5 (Over -150, Under +130)
Odds to win AFC North: 1/60 to Off board
Odds to win AFC: 3/2 to 9/5
Odds to win Super Bowl: 4/1 to 4/1

LINE MOVEMENT

The Titans (6/5) climbed over the Texans and Colts as the favorites in the AFC South following Week 1 and remain locked in with Jacksonville as near-even money favorites since both enter Week 11 with identical 6-3 records. Pittsburgh opened the regular season as a heavy 2/5 favorite to capture the AFC South, was 1-to-60 entering last week and have seen that number currently come off the board since only a total collapse would prevent them from claiming the division given their three-game edge over Baltimore and a 4-game edge over Cincinnati.

The Steelers opened the season as a 5/1 choice to win the AFC and were 10/1 to win the Super Bowl, numbers that trailed only the Patriots and Raiders at the time. Their odds have only improved throughout the year as the wins have piled up leaving them as the second choice behind the Patriots. Tennessee opened at 20/1 to win it all and 10/1 to capture the AFC and have seen its odds decrease only slightly.

As far as this matchup is concerned, the Steelers opened the week as a 7-point favorite and have seen it barely budge. The total opened at 44 and has similarly not moved much. Pittsburgh is a -300 money line favorite, though Westgate has moved it to -350. A Titans outright win pays out in the +250 to +275 range.


ODDSMAKER'S TAKE

Scott Cooley of Bookmaker.eu provides info on what his shop is seeing as far as betting trends.

"Very ho-hum as far as action for TNF thus far. We?ve taken a scant amount of smart money on each side," Cooley said Wednesday. "We briefly dropped to -6.5 but are now back at the open. The public likes Pittsburgh to the tune of 65 percent. The money handle is fairly split at 55-45 in favor of the home squad."

Bookmaker also has a prop available that has the Steelers +200 to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs. The field, which the Titans are obviously a part of, are +2000. New England is the current favorite at -400.

INJURY CONCERNS

The Titans are the healthier group here since Marcus Mariota has overcome shoulder and ankle injuries enough to come into this one good to go despite the short week. He'll have guard Quinton Spain back on the starting offensive line after missing time with turf toe. Tight end Delanie Walker (wrist) has also been playing hurt but is also going to be in the mix to help attack the Steelers.

Pittsburgh's primary area of concern is in its defensive backfield, where CB Joe Haden has been ruled out and safety Mike Mitchell is questionable due to an ankle injury. LB James Harrison may also potentially be sidelined, so the defense might be short-handed.

RECENT MEETINGS (Pittsburgh 4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS last six; UNDER 3-3)

11/17/14 Pittsburgh 27-24 at Tennessee (TEN +5.5, 45.5)
9/8/13 Tennessee 16-9 at Pittsburgh (TEN +6, 42)
10/11/12 Tennessee 26-23 vs. Pittsburgh (TEN +6.5, 43)
10/9/11 Pittsburgh 38-17 vs. Tennessee (PIT -3, 40)
9/19/10 Pittsburgh 19-11 at Tennessee (PIT +6, 37)
9/10/09 Pittsburgh 13-10 OT vs. Tennessee (TEN +6.5, 35)

TITANS AS A ROAD UNDERDOG

Tennessee has only been in this situation once, losing to Miami 16-10 as a one-point underdog. They've actually been favored on three other road ventures, winning outright twice while going 1-2 ATS. They were 3-3 SU/ATS as an away 'dog in 2016, beating the Lions, Dolphins and Chiefs.

STEELERS AS A HOME FAVORITE

Pittsburgh is 2-1 at home thus far and is beginning a stretch where it will play five of its last seven at Heinz Field as it looks to ensure that the AFC playoffs go through its house as opposed to Foxboro. Including last season's wild card win over the Dolphins, the Steelers were 7-1 straight up at home in this role in 2016, going 4-2-1 ATS.

NEXT WEEK'S NUMBERS POSTED

The Westgate opens its advance lines for the following week on Tuesdays and Week 12 has the Steelers back in prime time on Sunday night as a 12.5-point favorite at home against the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers. The Titans will be home and are a 6.5-point favorite against the New York Jets.

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday's Best Bet
November 15, 2017

NFL Week 11 TNF Betting Preview (NFL, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Tennessee Titans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 11 kicks off with two potential playoff teams in the AFC doing battle as the Tennessee Titans head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. Both teams are on a roll right now having each won four straight games entering Week 11, but those victories have only really translated into point spread success for the Steelers.

Pittsburgh is 3-1 ATS in their four victories having just failed to come close to covering (-10.5) against Indianapolis last week, while the Titans are 1-2-1 ATS during their four-game win streak as they've won their last three by a combined 10 points.

Pittsburgh (-6.5); Total set at 44

If the NFL playoffs were to start this weekend, both of these teams would be in as division winners, with Pittsburgh actually claiming the top seed in the AFC at the moment. Furthermore, it's tough not to agree with the oddsmakers in this game on the notion that the Steelers are clearly a level above Tennessee in terms of talent and skill as nearly a TD favorite, but is it too many points?

Some will look at this line and see it as too high given both teams are squarely in the playoffs right now, but there is an argument to be made that it may not be high enough. Yet, this is a TNF game on a short week and Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has laready come out and stated how much he hates TNF games, so expecting the best from the Steelers this week may be out of the question.

But at the same time, Titans QB Marcus Mariota is dealing with some nagging injuries to his non-throwing shoulder and ankle right now, so as enticing as this game may be on paper with two potential playoff combatants, we could end up seeing one of those sloppy, ugly TNF games many fans have come to expect over the years.

If that's the case it likely would lend itself to a play on the 'under' here, especially with Pittsburgh being 1-8 O/U on the year. Pittsburgh's defense is a big part of that run, but the fact that the Steelers offense and all their weapons have failed to score 30+ points this year is a little surprising. Tennessee's defense is no slouch either since fixing a few things after giving up 57 to Houston at the beginning of October, but with the way primetime games have been cashing 'over' tickets this year (7-3 O/U on TNF), and Pittsburgh's offense more then due for an explosion, I'm going to pass on my lean of the 'under' here.

Instead, I'm looking at this side and am firmly in the camp of believing this spread is a touch short on the Steelers. Pittsburgh's offense is definitely due to break out soon and put up 30+, and for a long time now they've been a much more productive unit at home compared to the road. This is only the fourth home game for Pittsburgh this season, and while they are 2-1 SU and ATS in the previous three, their two wins came by an average margin of victory of 16 points.

Defensively, Pittsburgh at home has held all three of those opponents to 17 points or less on offense ? their 30-9 home loss to Jacksonville had the Jags score two Pick-6's ? and if you eliminate a 90-yard run by Jacksonville's Leonard Fournette during garbage time of Pittsburgh's lone home loss, the average points allowed vs opposing offenses would come in at 11 points per game.

When you see a Tennessee team that has scored 14 points or less in each of their last three on the road, and now playing in a hostile environment on a short week, it's tough to imagine the Titans getting 13+ points here on offense unless Roethlisberger and the Steelers commit 3+ turnovers again. Scoring that few points against Pittsburgh is going to make it awfully hard for Tennessee to cover this number and that's really not a position I want to put myself in.

Furthermore, this will be the best offense this Titans defense has faced on the road since getting shelled by the Deshaun Watson-led Houston Texans, as they've only had to deal with Miami and Cleveland since then. Tennessee went 0-2 ATS (1-1 SU) in those games and while the Steelers putting up 50+ on Tennessee this week is unlikely, another double-digit road loss for the Titans should occur again.

Tennessee is just 7-20 ATS in thier last 27 on the road as an organization, and that includes a 3-9 ATS run against a winning home team. Mariota is banged up and his limited mobility in the pocket eliminates the bulk of him being a threat, and having a stationary, sometimes inaccurate passer in the pocket is a recipe for disaster against this Steelers defense.

So don't let last week's struggles against Indianapolis persuade you into writing off a very good Steelers team that appears to be getting too much respect from the oddsmakers. If this game wasn't on a short week the line would be closer to -9 in my opinion, and at under a TD, I'm laying the points with a Steelers team that routinely plays up (and down) to the level of their competition.

Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Week 11's biggest injury questions for all 32 NFL teams
NFC East


Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys hope that left tackle Tyron Smith can play Sunday against the Eagles despite not practicing Wednesday. He didn't play against the Falcons last week because of a groin strain, and the Cowboys were lost without him, giving up eight sacks. If Smith can't play, then Byron Bell would likely take over for Chaz Green in the starting lineup. Green gave up four of the eight sacks, but Bell still gave up two sacks. Linebacker Sean Lee didn't practice and could miss the next three games with a hamstring strain. Anthony Hitchens would take over at weakside linebacker, but look for Justin Durant to take more snaps at middle linebacker over Jaylon Smith. -- Todd Archer


New York Giants

Defensive tackle Damon Harrison could miss his first game since joining the Giants last season. He's dealing with an ankle injury and didn't practice Wednesday. Not having Harrison would change the Giants' defense. He has been the one constant this season. You don't run at him when he's on the field. His replacements -- Jay Bromley and Robert Thomas -- aren't known as run-stuffers. Not having Harrison will make life difficult for the Giants against Kareem Hunt and the Chiefs. -- Jordan Raanan

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are expected to get cornerback Ronald Darby back for Sunday's matchup against the Cowboys. Sidelined since the season opener with a dislocated ankle, the team's projected No. 1 corner has been a full participant at practice early in the week and has worked with the first team. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz indicated Darby will likely play on the left side when he returns, bumping Jalen Mills to the right. -- Tim McManus



Washington Redskins

Left tackle Trent Williams (knee) and tight end Jordan Reed (hamstring) remain the biggest injury concerns. Neither practiced Wednesday, but that's not unusual for Williams. It has been his routine since he hurt his knee against the Chiefs in Week 4. Taking three weeks off didn't help him that much, so for Williams, it'll always come down to how much pain can he tolerate -- the bone bruise and ligament damage impacts his lateral movement, too. The challenge is being ready for the next three games considering the Redskins play on Thanksgiving. Reed was able to practice early last week, then stopped because of the hamstring and sat out a second straight game. He went through agility work on a side field. It's too early to know his status, and, as of now, the best guess is it'll be another game-time decision. -- John Keim


NFC North



Chicago Bears

The biggest question mark is right guard Kyle Long, who was officially listed as limited Wednesday. But while Long dressed for last week's game against Green Bay, the three-time Pro Bowler only played one snap on special teams. He admitted Wednesday that he's dealing with multiple injuries -- dislocated fingers, a torn labrum and ankle problems. Long's status for Sunday against the Lions is unknown. It also appears the Bears will be without inside linebacker Danny Trevathan for another week. Trevathan did not practice Wednesday as he continues to recover from a serious calf injury. -- Jeff Dickerson



Detroit Lions

Defensive end Ezekiel Ansah (back) missed his fourth practice in a row Wednesday. He missed last week against Cleveland, and if he doesn't practice Thursday, that doesn't bode well for his availability against Chicago. Right guard T.J. Lang is still working his way through concussion protocol. If he's cleared by Sunday, he'll play. It would be the first time all year the starting offensive line built by general manager Bob Quinn would be in a game. Dwayne Washington is also battling injury -- a somewhat common theme for him -- and if he's out, it could mean Zach Zenner's return to the active roster. -- Michael Rothstein



Green Bay Packers

Coach Mike McCarthy said he was hopeful that Ty Montgomery would be able to play Sunday against the Ravens, but that looks like a long shot. The running back didn't practice Wednesday after he reinjured the ribs he broke earlier in the season. And considering fellow running back Aaron Jones is out multiple weeks with a knee injury, it looks like it could be rookies Jamaal Williams and Devante Mays in the backfield. Williams was effective in relief of Jones and Montgomery against the Bears last Sunday, but Mays has yet to carry in a regular-season game. -- Rob Demovsky



Minnesota Vikings

Right tackle Mike Remmers was back in practice in a limited capacity since exiting the Week 8 win over the Browns with a concussion. The Rams' defensive line is among the best the Vikings will see this year, so getting Remmers back for Sunday is a top priority. Everson Griffen's (foot) absence was felt last week against Washington. The Vikings didn't generate much pressure off the edge and had a combined six pressures on 86 pass-rushing snaps between Danielle Hunter and Brian Robison. Coach Mike Zimmer said that he expects Griffen, who was a late scratch in Week 10, to be ready to go Sunday. Safety Andrew Sendejo was the only player to miss practice Wednesday. He sustained a groin/hamstring injury late against the Redskins and exited the game. -- Courtney Cronin


NFC South



Atlanta Falcons

Two-time Pro Bowl running back Devonta Freeman is the biggest concern right now as he sustained his second concussion since August, the third of his Falcons career. Although coach Dan Quinn stopped short of declaring Freeman out for Monday night's showdown at Seattle, the Falcons surely will be cautious not to rush Freeman back before he's ready. Tevin Coleman will have to shoulder more of the load at running back until Freeman returns. -- Vaughn McClure



Carolina Panthers

Tight end Greg Olsen is on pace to come off injured reserve after the bye and play in the Week 12 matchup with the Jets. Olsen has been out since breaking his foot in a Week 2 win over Buffalo. His return should be a spark for the team, particularly after losing wide receiver Curtis Samuel (ankle) for the season last week. But Monday is the big day for Olsen to test to see if the foot can handle the pressure of facing live competition. -- David Newton



New Orleans Saints

Linebacker A.J. Klein didn't practice Wednesday because of the ankle injury that knocked him out of last week's game at Buffalo. Klein will absolutely be missed if he can't play this week, since he has been a great addition as the "quarterback" and signal-caller in the middle of the defense. But the Saints do have solid depth behind him with veterans Manti Te'o and Craig Robertson -- as they showed by not missing a beat in the 47-10 rout at Buffalo. The rest of the injury report was promising. Everyone was either full or limited, including safety Kenny Vaccaro, who returned after missing last week with a groin injury. -- Mike Triplett



Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Quarterback Jameis Winston will be out for at least another week and possibly longer, depending on how his shoulder responds to the two weeks prescribed rest by multiple doctors, including Dr. James Andrews. Coach Dirk Koetter said he expects to see Winston back sometime this season, while general manager Jason Licht said that while they are sticking with two weeks, there is "no real timeline" and he could be out for "an extended period." Koetter also said that there had been no discussion between him and Licht on shutting Winston down for the season, and surgery is currently not being considered. -- Jenna Laine


NFC West



Arizona Cardinals

All eyes are on quarterback Drew Stanton. He has a knee injury that has been reported as a sprain, but he talked about having a bone bruise Wednesday. He's progressing every day, faster than coach Bruce Arians anticipated, but his status for Sunday in Houston is still up in the air. Arians will make a decision after Friday's practice, but one issue that will factor into his decision will be how mobile Stanton can be in order to protect himself on the field. If Stanton can't play, Blaine Gabbert will get the start. -- Josh Weinfuss



Los Angeles Rams

There was a longer injury report than usual Wednesday, but it included a morsel of good news: Outside linebacker Robert Quinn, who missed last week's game with an undisclosed illness, was a limited participant. It's early, but Quinn, the only starter to not play in Week 10, appears on track to play Sunday in Minnesota. Outside linebacker Connor Barwin (knee), safety Lamarcus Joyner (hip) and left guard Rodger Saffold (ankle) did not practice, but coach Sean McVay said the Rams were mainly being cautious with their players. -- Alden Gonzalez



San Francisco 49ers

For the third week in a row, San Francisco's starting free safety is dealing with an injury. But unlike the season-ending fractured forearms suffered by Jimmie Ward and Jaquiski Tartt, rookie Adrian Colbert has a fractured thumb. Colbert had surgery on the thumb on Tuesday, and with the Niners on bye, he'll have additional time to recover. Coach Kyle Shanahan said Colbert is likely to be questionable for the first game after the bye, set for Nov. 26 against Seattle. It's possible Colbert could play with a cast, and the Niners could use him given how injury-prone they've been at such an important position in their defense. -- Nick Wagoner



Seattle Seahawks

In addition to cornerback Richard Sherman and running back C.J. Prosise -- who both went on IR this week -- the Seahawks had five other players unable to finish last week's game against Arizona because of injuries. Coach Pete Carroll said safety Kam Chancellor's status wouldn't be known until doctors evaluate the neck stinger he suffered Thursday night. Carroll was mum on how Duane Brown is progressing from a sprained ankle, so his availability for Monday night's game against Atlanta is also uncertain. One thing is for sure: Seattle could really use Brown after Adrian Clayborn's six-sack field day against Dallas' backup left tackles Sunday. -- Brady Henderson


AFC East



Buffalo Bills

Defensive end Jerry Hughes left last week's loss to the Saints with a shin/calf injury that kept him out of practice Wednesday. If Hughes cannot return to practice and make the trip this weekend to L.A. to play the Chargers, the Bills will be left with Shaq Lawson, Ryan Davis and Eddie Yarbrough at defensive end. The Bills rank 30th in sacks per opposing pass attempt (4.3 percent) and Hughes leads the team with 3.0 sacks. -- Mike Rodak



Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are relatively heathy this week after suffering no new injuries in Monday's loss to the Panthers. However, starting guard Ted Larsen is one game in after returning from injured reserve from a bicep tear. His performance is something to watch down the stretch as Miami needs him healthy for the rest of the season. -- James Walker



New England Patriots

The Patriots will likely be without wide receiver Chris Hogan(shoulder), defensive tackle Malcom Brown (ankle) and right tackle Marcus Cannon (ankle) once again, as those players didn't make the trip to Colorado Springs, where the team is spending the week before playing Sunday against the Raiders in Mexico City. Phillip Dorsett, Alan Branch and LaAdrian Waddlefilled in for them against the Broncos, with Waddle especially getting high marks. Said offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels: "He's done a good job of staying patient, working hard, waiting his turn, and now he's trying to make the most of his opportunities, and he's done well so far." -- Mike Reiss



New York Jets

When the Jets return from their bye, the injury spotlight will focus on two players: running back Matt Forte (knee) and cornerback Morris Claiborne(foot). Forte sat out the last game with his chronic issue, so he will have had a 24-day rest before the next game. The offense missed his pass-catching ability against the Bucs last week. Claiborne aggravated a sprain in the last game and pulled himself out in the first quarter. They need him for the stretch run because they face some tough receivers, and Claiborne often covers the opponents' No. 1. -- Rich Cimini


AFC North



Baltimore Ravens

The expectation had been for running back Danny Woodhead to come off injured reserve this week, but Woodhead and team officials have been surprisingly noncommittal about his availability for Sunday's game in Green Bay. "I don't know the odds [of playing]," Woodhead said after Wednesday's practice. "I'm staying in my lane. We'll see where it takes us." Woodhead, who has been out since the season opener with a hamstring injury, would provide a much-needed boost to a struggling offense that ranks last in the NFL in passing. He represents the Ravens' biggest mismatch for defenses. -- Jamison Hensley



Cincinnati Bengals

Cornerback Adam Jones didn't practice Wednesday and is presumably under the league's concussion protocol after exiting last week's loss to the Titans. He'll likely need to log a full practice Thursday or Friday in order to play Sunday against the Broncos, but with his history of concussions, the Bengals could be without their most veteran defensive back. He suffered from back issues earlier this season, and Darqueze Dennard and Josh Shaw picked up his duties. Will Jackson III also missed practice Wednesday while still nursing the toe injury that took him out of Sunday's game at Tennessee. -- Laurel Pfahler



Cleveland Browns

Two starting offensive linemen didn't practice Wednesday. Right tackle Shon Coleman has a concussion, and center JC Tretter has shoulder, knee and quad issues. The Jaguars lead the league in fewest points allowed per game (14.9) and sacks (35), so it would not be a good game Sunday if the Browns are without two offensive linemen. -- Pat McManamon



Pittsburgh Steelers

Safety Mike Mitchell (ankle), tight end Vance McDonald (ankle) and outside linebacker James Harrison (back) are all questionable for Thursday's game against the Titans. All three practiced in limited capacity this week, but the short turnaround affects their probability. The Steelers aren't rushing Harrison back, knowing they'll need him for the playoffs. "[Mitchell] has a chance, and we'll leave the light on for him," coach Mike Tomlin said. "Same with Vance McDonald." -- Jeremy Fowler


AFC South



Houston Texans

The Texans expect to be without wide receiver Will Fuller on Sunday against the Cardinals after he injured his ribs in Week 10 against the Rams. Fuller got injured while attempting to catch a short pass in the middle of the field. After the game, Fuller said he felt OK despite being sore, but didn't practice Wednesday. -- Sarah Barshop



Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback Jacoby Brissett will spend the bye in the concussion protocol after suffering the injury late in the third quarter of Sunday's loss to the Steelers. Brissett didn't miss any snaps during the game because he was evaluated and cleared to return. It wasn't until after the game that he started having concussion symptoms. The Colts, who defended their medical staff on its decision to clear Brissett to return to the game, are hopeful that having two weeks in between games will be enough time for the quarterback to get healthy. Scott Tolzien, who was benched after throwing two interceptions in Week 1 against the Rams, will start against the Titans in Week 12 if Brissett isn't cleared to return by then. -- Mike Wells



Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars went from relatively healthy to having six players miss practice Wednesday, including two offensive linemen -- right tackle Jermey Parnell and left guard Patrick Omameh. They're critical to the Jags' run game, which ranks first in the league. They were out last week and the offensive line played its worst game of the season. The Jaguars do not want to have quarterback Blake Bortles throw it 50 times against the Browns in bad weather, so getting those two back ASAP is the No. 1 priority. -- Mike DiRocco



Tennessee Titans

The Titans don't have any players with injury designations ahead of Thursday night's showdown with the Steelers. Quarterback Marcus Mariotasuffered a sore left shoulder and sprained ankle Sunday, so that could be something to watch if he gets hit or twisted in a way that affects those areas, but I expect him to be mobile and effective. Tight end Delanie Walker (wrist) is also good to go. -- Cameron Wolfe


AFC West



Denver Broncos

Two of the three tight ends on the Broncos' roster miss practice Wednesday with injuries, which could limit what they can do as far as personnel groupings in Sunday's game against the Bengals. A.J. Derby (shoulder) and Jeff Heuerman (knee) were held out of Wednesday's practice as Virgil Green was the only healthy tight end on the active roster to participate. Derby has been the main receiving option at the position to this point with 19 catches and two touchdowns. Green and Heuerman have combined for just 15 catches this season. Derby and Heuerman will be question marks as the week progresses. It could force the Broncos to play out of a three-wide receiver set even more than they have, and they've struggled to protect the passer out of that grouping so far this season. -- Jeff Legwold



Kansas City Chiefs

Starter Dee Ford and veteran Tamba Hali didn't practice Wednesday, raising the issue of whether the Chiefs will have enough depth at outside linebacker Sunday against the Giants. Ford has a back injury that has plagued him most of the season, so it wouldn't be much of a surprise if he couldn't play this week. Hali has sore knees that prevented him from practicing most of last season, but he was able to play in all 16 games. If neither plays Sunday, the Chiefs are left with Justin Houston, Frank Zombo and rookie Tanoh Kpassagnon, who is still learning his new position after playing defensive line in college. -- Adam Teicher



Los Angeles Chargers

Quarterback Philip Riverswas a limited participant in a nonpadded practice Wednesday as he works his way through the concussion protocol with hopes of playing Sunday against the Bills. The 35-year-old self-reported concussion-like symptoms Monday. He has made 194 consecutive starts, including postseason games, dating back to when he took over as the team's starter in the 2006 season. Coach Anthony Lynn said Rivers is doing well, and as his health improves, his workload will increase. Reserve quarterback Kellen Clemens was asked about the possibility of starting Sunday in place of Rivers and had this to say: "In the backup position you prepare the same way every week. You enjoy playing, but I understand my role. I'm here to help Philip and help this team in any capacity possible." -- Eric D. Williams



Oakland Raiders


Sure, David Amerson was only the No. 115-ranked cornerback out of 115 cornerbacks to have played at least 100 pass snaps in passer rating allowed entering last weekend, but Amerson is still considered an upgrade for the Raiders from what they've been trotting out. And last week's bye seemingly did little to help him heal up from the foot injury that has cost him the previous two games. Amerson didn't participate in practice Wednesday -- he ran with trainers off to the side during the open-media window -- and the Raiders' secondary is already shorthanded with rookie Gareon Conley being placed on injured reserve Monday. Oh, and Oakland faces the Patriots and their top-ranked overall and passing offense in the thin-air of Mexico City come Sunday. Paging Sean Smith, Dexter McDonald and TJ Carrie again, then. -- Paul Gutierrez

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 16
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TEN at PIT 08:25 PM

PIT -7.0 *****

O 44.5 *****

 

[Cnotes53]

A Parlay Tonight Just For Fun...................

PARLAY (7 TEAMS)

Risk: 20.00 - Win: 1911.36

[312] Pittsburgh Steelers -7 2.00

Game start 11/16/2017 05:25 PM
[311] TOTAL o44 1.90 (Tennessee Titans vrs Pittsburgh Steelers)

Game start 11/16/2017 05:25 PM
[315] Tulsa +23 1.90

Game start 11/16/2017 04:30 PM
[315] TOTAL o64.5 1.90 (Tulsa vrs South Florida)

Game start 11/16/2017 04:30 PM
[502] Boston Celtics +7.5 1.90

Game start 11/16/2017 05:05 PM
[502] TOTAL u217 1.90 (Golden State Warriors vrs Boston Celtics)
Game start 11/16/2017 05:05 PM

Extra Game
[555] CS Bakersfield +25 1.95
Game start 11/16/2017 07:00 PM

 

[Cnotes53]

Steelers drill Titans 40-17; Big Ben 4 TDs
November 16, 2017

PITTSBURGH (AP) Ben Roethlisberger threw for 299 yards and four touchdowns, three to Antonio Brown, and the Pittsburgh Steelers pulled away from the Tennessee Titans in a 40-17 victory on Thursday night.

Running the no-huddle offense extensively for the first time all season, Roethlisberger completed 30 of 45 passes to help the Steelers (8-2) win their fifth straight.

Brown caught 10 passes for 144 yards and the three scores, including an acrobatic grab in the back of the end zone in which he pinned the ball to his helmet before bringing it in to put Pittsburgh up 20 in the fourth quarter.

Marcus Mariota ran for a touchdown and threw for another but also was picked off four times as the Titans (6-4) saw their four-game winning streak come to a crashing halt. Mariota finished 22 of 33 for 306 yards but was under pressure much of the night, absorbing five sacks and rarely finding room to move outside the pocket.

Still, Tennessee appeared to be in it when Mariota hit Rishard Matthews with a 75-yard touchdown pass on the first play of the second half to get to 16-14 but Pittsburgh's long-sputtering offense finally came to life.

Roethlisberger dropped some very not subtle hints that he wanted the freedom provided by the no-huddle after the Steelers used it to pick the Colts apart during the winning drive last Sunday in Indianapolis.

Offensive coordinator Todd Haley appeared to be listening.

Pittsburgh opened in the no huddle and needed just six plays to take the lead as Roethlisberger took advantage of a free play and hit Brown with a 41-yard rainbow. Mike Hilton then returned Mariota's interception to set up the first of Chris Boswell's four field goals and the Steelers appeared on the verge of another prime-time blowout at home.

The blowout did eventually arrive, just not quickly.

The offense ground to a halt for the rest of the half, held in check by former defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau. The Hall of Famer spent 12 years building a defense that helped Pittsburgh to a pair of Super Bowl victories before being ushered out in favor of protege Keith Butler in January, 2015. The 80-year-old is in the middle of his latest project with the steadily improving Titans.

Yet the gap between Tennessee and Pittsburgh remains significant. The proof came after Mathews' long catch-and-run appeared to give the Titans momentum.

It didn't last.

The Steelers, with Roethlisberger deftly at the controls, finally showcased the firepower they've only flirted with this season. The 35-year-old who has struggled with his accuracy at times was near perfect over the final 30 minutes. He finished 20 of 23 for 185 yards in the second half as Pittsburgh's $92-million offense sprang to life but scoring on four straight possessions.

Roethlisberger found a leaping Brown for a 5-yard score to put Pittsburgh up 23-14, executed a perfect play-action fake that the goal line before flipping it to a wide-open Jesse James for a 1-yard touchdown and put the Titans away with a lob to the back corner of the end zone that Brown somehow hauled in from 10 yards out that made it 37-17.

Pittsburgh rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster knelt down and bowed to Brown during the giddy celebration. Hard to blame the 20-year-old. For the first time all season, the Steelers put it all together and looked every bit like a team with a legitimate threat to play deep into January and beyond.

UP NEXT

Titans: Visit Indianapolis on Nov. 26. Tennessee beat the Colts 36-22 on Oct. 16.

Steelers: Welcome the Green Bay Packers on Nov. 26, the second of four straight prime-time games for Pittsburgh.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday, November 19, 2017
Time (ET) Away Home
1:00 PM Detroit Lions Chicago Bears
1:00 PM Jacksonville Jaguars Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM Baltimore Ravens Green Bay Packers
1:00 PM Arizona Cardinals Houston Texans
1:00 PM Los Angeles Rams Minnesota Vikings
1:00 PM Washington Redskins New Orleans Saints
1:00 PM Kansas City Chiefs New York Giants
1:00 PM Tampa Bay Buccaneers Miami Dolphins
4:05 PM Buffalo Bills Los Angeles Chargers
4:25 PM Cincinnati Bengals Denver Broncos
4:25 PM New England Patriots Oakland Raiders
8:30 PM Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Cowboys

************************

NFL Record For November......Based on 5 units ( Best Bets and Opinons )

11/16/2017 2-0-0 100.00% +10.00
11/13/2017 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
11/12/2017 10-14-0 41.67% -27.00
11/09/2017 1-0-1 100.00% +5.00
11/06/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
11/05/2017 5-8-1 38.46% -19.00
11/02/2017 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50


Totals.........20 - 26 - 2.......43.47%.......-43.00


Best Bets:...................ATS...................Unit s........... ..O/U.............Units...............Total

11/16/2017................1- 0..................+5.00...............1 - 0............+5.00..............+10.00
11/13/2017................0 - 1..................-5.50...............0 - 1.............-5.50...............-11.00
11/12/2017................1 - 2..................-4.50...............1 - 8............-39.00...............-43.50
11/09/2017..............0 - 0 - 1...............+0.00..............1 - 0............+5.00................+5.00
11/06/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 1.............-5.50................-0.50
11/05/2017................0 - 2..................-11.00..............3 - 1............+9.50................-1.50
11/02/2017................1 - 0..................+5.00..............0 - 0............+0.00...............+5.00


Totals........................4 - 6..................-6.00................6 - 11...........-35.50..............-41.50

*******************

11 /02 / 17 -Thursday Night POM........New York Jets + 3....34 - 21............Winner

 

[Cnotes53]

NFL notebook: Owners rebuke Jones for detrimental conduct
November 16, 2017

Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has been informed by other NFL owners via letter that he is engaging in "conduct detrimental to the league's best interests," the New York Times reported Thursday.

The letter was sent to Jones through his attorney, David Boies, on Wednesday, one day after Jones expressed publicly that he had no intention of halting his efforts to prevent NFL commissioner Roger Goodell from receiving a contract extension.

Jones has threatened to sue the NFL if the extension is approved by the six-owner compensation committee, headed by Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank.

The letter accuses Jones of sabotaging the negotiations in the latest round of the escalating feud between Jones and Goodell. Jones is suspected of sharing outdated documents about negotiations with Goodell to other owners.

It was revealed last weekend that Goodell requested a salary of approximately $49.5 million, a private jet and lifetime health insurance for his family last August. Goodell's contract expires in 2018.

--Cleveland Browns wide receiver Corey Coleman will return from injured reserve for Sunday's game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, coach Hue Jackson said.

Coleman has been sidelined since breaking a bone in his hand in a 24-10 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sept. 17. The former first-round pick was placed on injured reserve but later was designated to return by the Browns (0-9).

Coleman has encountered obstacles since being selected with the 15th overall pick in the 2016 draft. He suffered a different broken bone in his hand during his rookie season and finished with 33 receptions and three touchdowns.

--Dallas Cowboys Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith sat out Thursday's practice with groin and back issues.

After missing practice on consecutive days, Smith's availability is in question for the Cowboys (5-4) in Sunday's home game against the NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles (8-1).

Smith's absence was felt during last Sunday's 27-7 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, as Dak Prescott was sacked eight times -- including on six occasions by defensive end Adrian Clayborn.

--Jacksonville Jaguars rookie wide receiver Dede Westbrook has great expectations heading into his potential NFL debut on Sunday against the winless Cleveland Browns.

Westbrook, who could be activated off injured reserve this week following core muscle surgery, offered the following to "Teal & Black Blitz" on SportsRadio 930 Wednesday:

"My expectations are high," Westbrook said. "I always set the standard high for myself. For me, and this has nothing to do with the Cleveland Browns at all, but my expectation is a 200-yard receiving game. Of course that's going to come with me and Blake (Bortles) being on the same page most of the game, but at the end of the day, that's the expectations that I have for myself this weekend."

--The New Orleans Saints have secured the services of Mike Westhoff to oversee the club's special teams units, coach Sean Payton said.

Coaches Bradford Banta and Kevin O'Dea will remain on staff to work with Westhoff, who retired from the NFL after the 2012 season with the New York Jets. The 69-year-old is expected to remain with the Saints until the end of this season.

The Saints (7-2) are riding high on a seven-game winning streak, but the club has endured stumbles from its special teams. New Orleans resides 30th in the league in punt return average and 28th in kickoff return average.

--The Arizona Cardinals promoted tackle/guard Vinston Painter from the practice squad to the active roster, the team announced.

Painter, who was on the active roster and played in Week 4, re-signed with the team's practice squad on Oct. 3. The 6-foot-4, 322-pound Painter has appeared in nine NFL regular-season games -- five with the Washington Redskins last season and three with the Cleveland Browns in 2014.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s six-pack

More NFL trends with Week 11 upon us??

? New Orleans covered nine of its last 12 games.

? Bengals are 1-6-1 in last eight games as a road underdog.

? Atlanta is 8-2 vs spread in last ten games as a road underdog.

? Seahawks are 3-7-1 vs spread in their last 11 games.

? Falcons covered eight of last ten games as a road underdog.

? Ravens covered seven of their last nine post-bye games.

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here??..

13) UCLA is on the hook for a lot of money, regarding the housing/feeding for a week of the three nitwits who stole stuff in China- they also have to check with the NCAA to make sure that paying for all of that won?t be a violation of NCAA rules, as far as the special benefits rules are concerned.

Next year?s China game is Yale vs Cal; you think those kids will get sick of hearing lectures about how they represent their families, school and country while overseas?

12) If it was my choice, I?d cap Roger Goodell?s salary at $32M a year, $1M from each team. If he can?t live on that and buy health insurance for his family, then go find another bleeping job.

11) Joel Embiid went off Wednesday night? 46 points, 14 rebounds, 7 assists, 7 blocked shots. Quite a performance; 76ers are fun to watch on the NBA League Pass.

10) Speaking of the 76ers, Robert Covington got a 4-year, $62M extension this week; not bad for a guy who playing in the D-League four years ago.

9) Mets said they may restrict most of their starting pitchers to two trips thru the lineup next year, the exceptions being deGrom/Syndegaard.

Two times thru the order is obviously 18 hitters; average pitches per at bat is around 3.9, we?ll round up to 4.0, so that is only 72 pitches per start for starting pitchers 3-5, which is going to put a huge amount of stress on bullpens. Will be an interesting experiment, if they try it.

8) Roy Williams is the first college basketball coach to win 400+ games at two different schools, Kansas and North Carolina.

7) Charleston junior F Jarrell Brantley is out 4-6 weeks wth a knee injury, bad mews for a Cougar squad that was picked to win the CAA this year. Brantley was a first-team CAA pick, so this is a big deal for them???.Rhode Island loses EC Matthews for 4-6 weeks with a broken wrist. This poor guy missed the whole season two years ago with an injury, too.

6) Arkansas fired AD Jeff Long, meaning that football coach Bret Bielema is just about out the door. Boosters want to go after Auburn coach Gus Malzahn, but why would Malzahn leave a better job in the same league?

5) Titans? tackle Taylor Lewan, on Tennessee?s powder blue uniforms for Thursday?s game:

?When you look at us, it?s pretty self-explanatory ? we look like Smurfs. But the Smurf look is solid. I don?t mind it. I think it is a pretty rad deal. Hey, it?s fun to switch it up every once in a while and have those funky uniforms. I think it?s pretty cool, I really do. I think you?ll find some guys love them, and other guys hate them. Personally, I don?t really care too much about what I am wearing during the game, but I do think it?s fun.?

4) Every time I see Grayson Allen play for Duke, I think he is somehow related to Ted Cruz, the guy who ran for President last year. They could easily be father/son, they look that much alike.

3) Celtics 92, Warriors 88- Boston is 14-0 since an 0-2 start, despite Gordon Hayward blowing his ankle out 5:00 into the season. NBA season is a marathon, but this is a remarkable streak Celtics are on, seeing how Kyrie Irving was also hurt during part of the streak.

2) Steelers 40, Titans 17? Mariota threw four INT?s, Steelers had five sacks, outscoring Titans 17-0 in 4th quarter. 19 of Pittsburgh?s 25 first downs came thru the air.

1) So Kevin Durant is upset because the Oklahoma City Thunder gave his old #35 jersey to undrafted rookie P.J. Dozier last month. Let him explain:

?I didn?t have that perspective at first. I didn?t have it when I went back to OKC. I was like, ?F? all of them. I didn?t have it when they gave my number away. I was, ?F? all of them.? My best friend works for the team, I told him, ?F? all y?all. That?s f?ed up.? Then I had to get out of my head, tell myself, ?It?s not that serious, it is what it is.?

?I understand it?s not my number anymore, they can do whatever they want with it, but you hand that number to a two-way player, you?ve got to be, like, ?Nah, we?ve got too many good memories with this number, man.? But at some point, that thing?s going to be in the rafters anyway; it?s all good. I did something they didn?t like. They did something I didn?t like. S? happens.?

 

[Cnotes53]

Injuries hit Seattle secondary
November 17, 2017

RENTON, Wash. -- For the time in 100 games, the Seattle Seahawks will have to play a game without Richard Sherman as their starting left cornerback.

And with strong safety Kam Chancellor also potentially sidelined and free safety Earl Thomas nursing a hamstring strain, Seattle's "Legion of Boom" secondary comes into Monday night's game against the Atlanta Falcons as banged up as they've ever been as a unit.

Sherman is on injured reserve and had surgery to repair his Achilles on Wednesday. Chancellor's status is uncertain as he's still undergoing tests to determine the severity of a stinger sustained last Thursday against Arizona.

"It's definitely going to be weird," linebacker Bobby Wagner said of potentially missing Sherman and Chancellor. "I've never played a game without Richard. He's definitely going to be missed. But to have both of those guys missing in action is not something that we've ever had to deal with, but I think it's something that we're prepared for. I think we can hold it down until at least one of them gets back. The other one (Sherman) might take a while."

Bradley McDougald would start at strong safety in place of Chancellor after playing the last two weeks in Thomas' free safety spot. Jeremy Lane will assume Sherman's starting job at cornerback.

Thomas is expected to return to the lineup after missing the last two games with a hamstring strain, but it will be alongside a depleted group.

"We're very fortunate to have Bradley. He's played great," head coach Pete Carroll said of McDougald. "It's no big deal for him to play strong safety versus free safety so he'll jump right in there."

Additionally, Seattle brought back cornerback Byron Maxwell this week, who played four seasons for Seattle before spending the last two years in Philadelphia and Miami, respectively. Maxwell feels he has something to prove in his return with Seattle after two relatively disappointing seasons elsewhere.

"Definitely. Always, man," Maxwell said. "It's another opportunity to get out here and show what I can do so I'm looking forward to it. You've always got to prove yourself in this league no matter what. No matter if you're Dwight Freeney, he's out here trying to prove himself that he can still do it so no matter who you are, you're still trying to prove that you can do it."

Super Bowl XLIX is the closest Seattle's come to being as banged up in their back end. Sherman placed the game with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, Chancellor sprained a medical collateral ligament in his knee the Friday before the game and nearly missed the game. Meanwhile, Thomas played with a labrum tear in his shoulder that required offseason surgery.

But they all played. That won't be the case on Monday night.

--Running back C.J. Prosise was placed on injured reserve Tuesday with Mike Davis being promoted to the active roster to take his place.

Prosise played in parts of just five games this season due to a pair of high-ankle sprains that limited his availability and ultimately moved him to the injured list. It continued a string of serious injuries for Prosise dating back to his rookie year. A broken wrist bone and fractured scapula limited him to just six games as a rookie.

"C.J. is a marvelous player, but he has just not been able to stay healthy," head coach Pete Carroll said. "So we are going to give him the time to get well and heal it up."

Davis has spent the entire season on Seattle's practice squad after a solid preseason. He carried 24 times for 106 yards in four preseason games for the Seahawks. He also caught five passes for 41 yards with a touchdown.

"Mike has been, really, one of our favorites going all the way back to camp," Carroll said. "He had a really good offseason and a really good camp with us and a good preseason. ... We see a little bit of a well-roundedness in him. He's real competitive and he's really hungry to go. He's been with us all year, so the transition is seamless and looking forward to seeing what he brings."

Davis appeared in 14 career games with the San Francisco 49ers after being a fourth-round pick in 2015. He managed just 108 yards and a touchdown on 54 total carries, good for just a 2.0 yards-per-carry average. He also caught 10 passes for 63 yards.

"More confident, more angry since I got cut anyway," Davis said. "I play with an edge, a chip on my shoulder. That's something that really killed me is when I got cut (by the 49ers). It changed everything I do.

"It was a major shock to me because I feel like I didn't get a chance there, especially with the new coaching staff, but it's something I can't be angry about. It happens. It's a business."

While Seattle ranks 22nd in the league in rushing, quarterback Russell Wilson is their leading rusher. Their second leading rusher is Chris Carson, who has been out since Week 4 due to a severe high-ankle sprain and fractured leg. Eddie Lacy is the team's leading rusher currently on the roster with 128 yards on 48 carries. He ranks 77th in the league in rushing.

"It is frustrating somewhat," Carroll said of Seattle's rushing game struggles. "We've got to keep moving and we've got to do what we can with our guys and it hasn't been quite the same, but we're still moving the football and we're making a lot of first downs and we can do a lot of damage. We just have to do it the way we can do it. And I never give up on the fact of trying to balance out your attack. I think it's the best way to play football, so we'll find a way to do that, but it is a little bit different. It hasn't been obvious as it has been in the past."

--Cornerback Jeremy Lane finds himself back in a starting role with Seattle just weeks after he was traded to the Houston Texans.

If not for a failed physical, Lane would still be in Houston. Instead, he's now starting in the spot vacated by the loss of Richard Sherman to a torn Achilles.

"It's crazy how things worked out with me being traded, coming back and I've got an opportunity to start now so I'm excited," Lane said.

Lane sustained a thigh bruise in Seattle's game against Houston in October. The very next day, he was dealt to the Texans as part of a package that enabled the Seahawks to acquire left tackle Duane Brown. When the thigh bruise scuttled his physical with the Texans, Lane jumped back on a flight to Seattle uncertain of the reception he would receive coming back to the team that had just traded him away.

"It wasn't even 24 hours," said Lane, who called the experience an emotional roller coaster. "When I came in the locker room and walked in, I thought it would be awkward at first. But as soon as I came in it was kind of like 'fool!' and everybody started clapping their hands and giving me hugs. It was crazy."

The trade was amended with additional draft compensation being exchanged to complete the deal. With Sherman going down last Thursday night, the circumstances turned into an unexpected benefit for the Seahawks.

"We are very fortunate to have Jeremy Lane with us and ready to play," head coach Pete Carroll said. "And now, Shaq (Griffin) has become a starter, Jeremy has legitimately been a starter, so we couldn't be much more fortunate than that to have a guy step up and a guy that has been around the program and all that."

Lane said he finally feels like he's back to full health. He's played just three full games this season due to a groin strain, thigh bruise and first-quarter ejection in Seattle's season opener against Green Bay.

"I'm ready now," he said. "Finally, I'm ready to rock and roll."

 

[Cnotes53]

Seahawks' vaunted secondary possibly down 2 vs. Falcons
November 16, 2017

RENTON, Wash. (AP) Bobby Wagner knows he won't have Richard Sherman chirping in his ear from the Seattle Seahawks secondary the rest of the season.

Wagner may not have Kam Chancellor to rely on as protection for at least this week either.

''I've never played a game without Richard, he's definitely going to be missed, but to have both of those guys missing in action is not something that we have ever had to deal with,'' Wagner said Thursday. ''I think it's something that we're prepared for if we can hold it down until at least one of them gets back. The other one might take a while.''

Seattle's standout secondary could possibly be without another of its founding members Monday night when the Seahawks host the Atlanta Falcons. Sherman is done for the season following an Achilles tendon injury for which he underwent surgery this week. Seattle is being coy about the status of Chancellor, who suffered a stinger late in the victory over Arizona on Nov. 9. While Chancellor has not been ruled out of the Atlanta game, he was still undergoing tests Thursday.

''He's still getting some work done, tests done,'' coach Pete Carroll said. ''Don't have anything updated yet.''

The one bright spot for Seattle is optimism that safety Earl Thomas will return this week after missing the past two games with a hamstring injury. Thomas' return would be key for the continuity of the secondary. Much of what Seattle does in its coverages is predicated on Thomas being at free safety and his ability to cover so much ground.

If Chancellor can't go, the drop off may not be as severe as in the past. Bradley McDougald, who started the past two games at free safety with Thomas out, would slide over to strong safety if Chancellor is unavailable. The Seahawks have raved about McDougald's versatility since he was signed in the offseason as a free agent.

''He has been a fantastic addition and ... a little bit of an unsung hero at this time for this season, that he has been able to be so versatile and be so successful at what he is doing,'' Carroll said.

McDougald has split time between both safety positions in his career, but said Thursday he likes strong safety in Seattle's system because of the ability to play closer to the line of scrimmage.

''I like being down in the box a little bit more at the strong safety position,'' McDougald said. ''I think there's a lot more action than sitting in the middle of the field and being a blanket over the defense. You get to be in the run fits, play more man-to-man, just be a lot more in the mix.''

Seattle is also uncertain whether run-stuffing defensive tackle Jarran Reed will be able to play after he suffered a hamstring injury against the Cardinals.

The injuries aren't limited to the defensive side. The Seahawks are unsure if left tackle Duane Brown will be able to play following an ankle injury against Arizona. Brown said Thursday that the ankle is getting better but offensive line coach Tom Cable said the team is preparing for Matt Tobin to start at left tackle should Brown be unable to go.

''It's progressing every day so far. That's the main thing,'' Brown said.

NOTES: Carroll did not provide an update on discussions with the NFL regarding its review of whether Seattle followed concussion protocols with QB Russell Wilson in the win over Arizona. ''The medical staff and the training staff is working on that stuff and as we progress we will let you know when we can. We don't have any other information for you,'' he said. ... RB Eddie Lacy (groin) returned to practice. ... G Luke Joeckel is close to returning after minor knee surgery last month, but it's unlikely he'll be back this week.

 

[Cnotes53]

Total Talk - Week 11
November 18, 2017

The ?over? went 8-6 last week and most of the results were clear-cut. It wasn?t surprising to see New Orleans put up 30 points in the second-half but doing so with a ground-and-pound attack was eye-opening. At the same time, I didn?t believe Dallas could be held scoreless for three consecutive quarters but that?s why the NFL remains the toughest sport to handicap. Through 10 weeks, the ?over? holds a 75-70-1 record.

Line Moves

Listed below are the largest line moves as of Saturday afternoon based off the Week 11 openers posted last Sunday at BookMaker.eu.

Detroit at Chicago: 44 to 41
Kansas City at N.Y. Giants: 44 to 45 ?
Tampa Bay at Miami: 43 ? to 42
Arizona at Houston: 39 to 37 ?
Washington at New Orleans: 49 to 51 ?
Buffalo at L.A. Chargers: 44 to 41 (QB Change)
New England vs. Oakland: 50 to 54 ?
Philadelphia at Dallas: 47 to 48 ?

The totals market has had a lot of movement this week and the largest move is focused on this week?s game between the Patriots and Raiders from Mexico City. This will be the fifth NFL game played outside of the United States this season and the first four totals from London saw the results end in a stalemate (2-2).

Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu offered his comments on the rise, which appears to have been hit early in the week by the professional bettors. He said, ?Yes, mostly sharp money moving this one, and of course the public is piling on. We came back down a point in the last 24 hours, but currently we have more than 80 percent of the handle on the over. Hopefully we?ll see some more under money before kickoff.?

Other ?over? bets piling in this week were on the Redskins-Saints and Chiefs-Giants.

?I can certainly see how they?re pushing the Saints-Redskins total up. It probably should have started at 51 out of the gate. Efficient offenses, quick turf?this has all the makings of a shootout,? Cooley said. ?Not sure I agree with the Chiefs-Giants movement, but could see the argument for the smart money on the over there. If the Chiefs get up big early, they aren?t really one to keep taking shots.?

Along with those games, Cooley told VegasInsider.com that BookMaker.eu has received extra attention on the ?under? in the Detroit-Chicago game but the New England-Oakland ?over? could be their largest total liability this season.

Game of the Week

I?m guessing not many pundits expected the Rams-Vikings clash in Week 11 to be a must-see matchup but that?s the case as these divisional leaders square off. A win for Minnesota would go a long way in the playoff race knowing it already notched a win over NFC South leader New Orleans.

Most shops are holding 45 ? on this game and that?s the second highest total Minnesota has seen this season since their Week 1 matchup (47 ?) versus the aforementioned Saints. The Vikings won that game 29-19 but New Orleans moved the ball up and wound up settling for four field goals.

The Rams enter this game with the top-ranked scoring offense with 32.9 points per game and they?ve been better outside of Los Angeles (37.4 PPG). They?re averaging 388.9 yards per game and more importantly, they lead the NFL in big plays with 24 pass completions of 25-plus yards and 37 rushes of 10-plus yards. The Rams have seen the ?over? go 6-3 this season and that includes a 4-0 mark in true road games.

Minnesota enters this game on a 3-0 ?over? run and Case Keenum is starting to look like a legit quarterback but he also has some great skilled position players around him. He could have his hands full on Sunday when he faces a Rams defense that hasn?t allowed an opponent to score more than 17 points in their last five games.

Thirty Something

There have been 19 totals close in the thirties this season and the ?over? has gone 10-9 in those games. While some of these totals look like clear-cut ?under? tickets, the error for margin is so small. Perfect example was last week when the Packers defeated the Bears 23-16 and the total (37 ?) cashed the ?over? late with 20 combined points scored in the final 15 minutes.

As of Saturday, it appears we?ll have at least four totals close in this neighborhood on Sunday.

Baltimore at Green Bay: The Ravens enter this game on a 5-0 ?over? run and they?ve had five totals close in the thirties this season and they?ve produced a 4-1 lean to the high side in those contests. Baltimore has gone 7-2 off the ?bye? under head coach John Harbaugh and the ?under? is also 7-2 in those games.

Arizona at Houston: This number continues to drop (37 ?) and could end up being the lowest total posted this season. Unless you?re buying Cardinals QB Blaine Gabbert, I don?t know how you could make an argument for the ?over? in this game. Texans QB Tom Savage has started three games this season and Houston has scored a combined 28 points, which helped the ?under? easily go 3-0.

Jacksonville at Cleveland: The Browns have only played four true home games and they?ve all gone ?under? with the highest combined points coming in Week 1 as Pittsburgh defeated Cleveland 21-18. The Jaguars lead the league in scoring defense (14.9 PPG) and what they?ve done outside of Jacksonville (9.2 PPG) is really impressive.

Cincinnati at Denver: Of the four low totals this week, this matchup gets the best argument for an ?over? lean based on what the Broncos (40.3 PPG) have allowed on the scoreboard the last three weeks. Also, Cincy has allowed 25.8 PPG on the road which excludes their 31-7 win over Cleveland. Also, this game fits a solid total system (see below) as well.

Road System

A popular total angle we?ve been following on ?Total Talk? is in play this Sunday as Cincinnati visits Denver. What?s the system?

Play the ?over? in any game when the visitor is playing their third consecutive road game

The Bengals played at Jacksonville in Week 9 and last Sunday they visited Tennessee.

I know what you?re thinking and while it?s hard to back either Cincinnati or Denver?s offense these days, this angle has done a great job ignoring current form. So far this season, the results are 2-1 to the ?over? and that pushes the number up to 43-21 (67%) the last 12 seasons.

Divisional Contests

Through 10 weeks of the season, the ?under? has gone 28-13 in divisional contests and that includes a 1-1 mark last week. Similar to Week 10, we only have two divisional matchups on tap in Week 11.

Detroit at Chicago: The ?under? has cashed in three straight and four of the last five meetings between the pair. Since QB Mitch Trubisky has been given control of the Bears offense, the team has been held to 20 or less in four of five games and the defense helped with a pick-six in the one outlier. Detroit has watched the ?over? cash in two straight and four of the last five and the offense (30, 38) has looked sharp the last two weeks. These teams haven?t had a total this low since 2006 when QBs Rex Grossman and John Kitna were running the shows for the Bears and Lions respectively.

Philadelphia at Dallas: (See Below)

AFC vs. NFC

The ?over? went 3-2 in non-conference games last season and through 10 weeks, the ?over? holds a 22-17-1 edge. Side bettors should note that the NFC went 5-0 in these games last week but depending where you shop, the AFC is favored in all four matchups this week.

Kansas City at N.Y. Giants: I?m a little surprised this total got pushed up but after watching the Giants defense the last two weeks, it certainly looks like they quit on head coach Ben McAdoo. The other coach in this game, Andy Reid, owns a 16-2 record in regular season games following a bye and that includes a 3-1 mark with KC. The Chiefs have seen the ?under? go 3-0-1 with rest under Reid.

Tampa Bay at Miami: Another defense waving the white flag last week was Miami, who allowed 548 total yards in its 45-21 loss at Carolina. The Dolphins have seen the ?over? cash in four straight and they?ve allowed 35 PPG during this span. Tampa Bay has watched the ?under? connect in its last three and the offense (28 total points) has been a mess. This total screams ?pass? to me unless you believe a bad offense trumps a bad defense.

Baltimore at Green Bay: (See Thirty Something)

Arizona at Houston: (See Thirty Something)

Under the Lights

Last week we saw a rare TNF matchup go ?under? but the SNF and MNF totals easily went to the high side. Heading into this weekend, the ?over? sits at 22-11 and that includes this past Thursday?s outcome between the Steelers and Titans.

Philadelphia at Dallas: The total went 1-1 between the pair last season but the ?under? result occurred in Week 17 and the Cowboys played a ton of backups, including Tony Romo. Missing RB Ezekiel Elliot to suspension showed in last week?s 27-7 loss at Atlanta, but the bigger absences for the Cowboys appear to be left tackle Tyron Smith and linebacker Sean Lee. Both are still banged up and expected to miss this key divisional test, which puts more pressure on second-year QB Dak Prescott. The Dallas offense is averaging 27 PPG at home this season but can the unit maintain those numbers without the aforementioned duo? Philadelphia enters this game with the second best scoring offense (31.4 PPG) and its road numbers (26 PPG) have been decent too. The defense (22.8 PPG) has been more suspect outside of Philadelphia, yet entering this matchup with a week of rest could help. However, the Birds dropped a 24-23 decision last season at Detroit with rest and they were also road favorites in that game as well.

Seattle at Atlanta: We?ve seen the ?over? cash in in five straight MNF games and this total (45) could be argued either way. Both teams have capable offensive units that can move the football but they also boast solid defensive units although Seattle is playing with a patched up secondary. Last season, they met twice and both games went to the high side. The Seahawks rallied for a 26-24 win at home before the Falcons earned revenge with a 36-20 victory in the playoffs. Both clubs enter this game with 6-3 ?under? records.

Fearless Predictions

It?s been a rough run lately and the through 10 weeks of the season, the bankroll has plummeted to a deficit of 10 units ($1,000). Hopefully things balance out and I can get right before the postseason. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end ? Good Luck!

Best Over: Washington-New Orleans 51 ?

Best Under: Buffalo-L.A. Chargers 41

Best Team Total: Over Dallas Cowboys 21 ?

Three-Team Total Teaser (8.5-Point, +100)
Over 43 Washington-New Orleans
Under 54 Kansas City-N.Y. Giants
Over 31 ? Cincinnati-Denver

 

[Cnotes53]

Gridiron Angles - Week 11
November 18, 2017

NFL PLAY ON ATS TREND:

-- The Patriots are 10-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since October 16, 2016 coming off a game where they allowed no more than 18 first downs.

NFL PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- The Dolphins are 0-16 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since November 16, 2003 as a home favorite coming off a game where they failed to covered by at least seven points.

TOP NFL PLAYER TREND:

-- The Dolphins are 0-11-1 ATS (-9.12 ppg) since December 2014 as a favorite coming off a game as a road game where Jarvis Landry had at least five receptions.

NFL O/U UNDER TREND:

-- The Ravens are 0-11 OU (-9.5 ppg) since September 18, 2005 as a road favorite where they threw at least 250 yards.

NFL O/U OVER TREND:

-- The Patriots are 10-0 OU (8.8 ppg) since October 2004 coming off a game as a road favorite of more than a TD where they covered.

NFL BIBLE ACTIVE TREND:

-- The Eagles are 0-13 OU (-8.5 ppg) as a favorite off a win as a favorite in which they scored 10+ points more than their season-to-date average.

 

[Cnotes53]

Vegas Money Moves - Week 11
November 17, 2017

It's Week 11 in the NFL, one week before Thanksgiving and Black Friday which means bettors are planning for ways to make more money so everyone is happy during Christmas. Some people ask work for more hours, some ask friends to repay a debt and others go the easy route: winning on NFL Sunday. Of course winning is always the goal, but this week they're really serious and they've come strong collectively on two teams as if the pair are the easiest exacta ever offered.

"We've basically got two games that are likely to define how we do on Sunday,' said CG Technology VP of risk management Jason Simbal. "The public are betting like crazy, dialed in on two teams like I've seen before. They absolutely love the Eagles and the next most one-sided has been the Patriots. That's going to be a risky two-teamer for us with parlays, money-line parlays and teasers.

The Eagles are laying up to -5 at Dallas at a few books around town after opening -3.5. Dallas is playing without RB Ezekiel Elliott and OT Tryon Smith with LB Sean Lee doubtful. The Eagles have won seven straight, covering the spread in the last six.

"It's the only two games that stand out," said Simbal, "maybe the Jags would be third because we took a big bet on them and the majority of bettors are simply betting against the Browns no matter who they play.

Simbal noted the Browns have failed to cover in seven of their nine games.

But back to the Patriots and Eagles sides where Simbal started giving examples of just how one-sided those two games are.

"We've had a 7-to-1 ratio on tickets written with the Patriots and for every $230 bet on the Patriots were getting a dollar on the Raiders. It's a larger disparity in the other game where the Eagles have a 19-to-1 ratio in tickets written, $35,000 bet on the Eagles and just $410 on the Cowboys."

And that's with no large bets through Friday afternoon. They'll take six times more action over the weekend, and although it's a small sample size of action through five days, it's very accurate with what kind of betting patterns are about to happen. Nothing is going to change the opinion of the masses in the next three days of wagering.

William Hill sports books reported Thursday night that 57 percent of all their NFL Sunday side action was on the Eagles-Cowboys game with 99 percent of the cash siding with the Eagles. William Hill's top bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich said the majority of that action came from one regular bettor who gets extended limits. This particular bettor has bet large money on the Eagles at several different books, including John Avello's Wynn. He's not affiliated with any sharp group, but has been betting most of the football season at several books. So the books are getting his big money on the same side the public is piling on with. this game sticks out like a sore thumb.

Avello's Wynn sports book has a different clientele than most books with their weekend results mostly being about how well three of four of their house players (Whales) fare. The public sides rarely harm them like other books on and off the strip. It's all about the big cash and Avello is staring at eight big decisions already.

"We have a player who has made one play in a bunch of games that make those decisions our biggest," said Avello. "He took the Bears (+3 vs Lions), Chiefs (-10.5 at Giants), Packers (+2 vs Ravens), Rams (+2.5 at Vikings), Browns (+8 vs Jaguars), Redskins (+8 at Saints), Chargers (-5 vs Bills) and Eagles."

Avello liked one of the plays his VIP made and made a good case with the Redskins getting +8 at New Orleans.

"The Saints lost their first two to playoff teams and have now won seven straight (7-0 ATS), and while their offense and defense both look vastly improved, I'm skeptical a bit on them just because the list of teams they beat on that seven-game streak were teams like Tampa, Chicago and Miami. Maybe Carolina is a playoff team, and the Saints beat them, but the thing the Redskins can do most of those teams can't do consistently is score. They went on the road and beat the Seahawks and Rams." Avello labeled two teams as being difficult weekly to post a number on.

"The Chargers are tough to get a proper rating on because they're involved in so many close games," he said. "The Redskins are similar in that way. I think the Chargers will be a popular public team this week just because of how poorly Buffalo has looked in their last two and benching Tyrod Taylor for a rookie QB."

Taylor isn't hurt, but apparently he's getting credit for a defense that allowed 34 points to the Jets and 47 at home to the Saints in their last two losses. Nathan Peterman, the rookie from Pitt, will make his first career start on the road, which rarely turns out well for the rookie. The Chargers have been bet up from -4 to as high as -5.5.

When summing up what his 107 sports books needed for a profitable day, Bogdanovich made it seem like the same risk sheet with the same teams on it is happening every week.

"We know now who they're betting every week, we just need some help from the other teams," he said. "It's getting to be a regular thing the past few weeks where we need the Browns and Giants to cover and also who ever is playing the Eagles and Patriots. The Rams are quickly joining that company, but not as much this week because the Vikings are respected and at home."

The Vikings have been steady 2.5 or 2-point home favorites all week against the Rams. The Rams have won all four road games with the Over also hitting in all of them. Minnesota has gone 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games. Something's got to give in this match-up.

Good luck this week, everyone. Go make some Black Friday cash.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday's Top 5 Wagers
November 17, 2017

Sometimes you have to sprinkle the most logical plays in with the most illogical wagers you could possible imagine. This week, we?re advocating for plays against the second best team in the NFC, the worst rookie quarterback so far?and Andy Dalton. Yup, it?s becoming that kind of season. Dare to dance with the devil?

Don?t worry, we have some low hanging fruit for you to chew on as well to pad your parlays or generate some solid standalone potential for you wallet in Week 11 NFL betting.

Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over Los Angeles Rams

By every stretch of the imagination, the Rams look like the better team to back. That?s fine if you think that, but their season deserves a deeper look. And this is coming from a team that?s touting Todd Gurley as the MVP of the season, so when we say that this is hard to write, we mean it.

The Rams have beaten Indianapolis, San Francisco, Arizona, NYG and Houston this year in that order. They?ve also been fortunate enough to face Dallas without linebacker Sean Lee. Their toughest games have come against teams running with healthy starters, holding a bit of momentum.

Cue losses to Seattle and Washington by the Rams. At this point, both of those teams are really hard done by and that?s all fair. The season is rough and the game is cruel. But Minnesota has a staggeringly good offensive attack and one of the top rated defences in the league. This is as tough a test as the Rams have faced all season, and there?s simply no proof that they?re genuinely up for it.

As for the Vikings, they?ve been living a healthy diet of wins by war of attrition. They ram rodded the Redskins last weekend and have found a way to make Case Keenum an effective starter. But all of this rides on the backs of their defence, which is the 3rd best in rush defence and 5th in points against with just 18.3 allowed on average.

If this is a war of attrition, I don?t know what Goff is capable of and I?m willing to bet that the Rams will be shell shocked by the uptick in competitive play that the Vikings provide compared to the recent canon fodder that he?s faced.

Chicago Bears +3 over Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions are a team that we want to succeed whether we admit it or not. Every time they win a game, we get excited and launch our support behind them and it?s simply not justified. Detroit looked great while whipping the Browns and Packers, but who hasn?t lately?

Chicago suffered a defeat to Green Bay just last week so this pick doesn?t seem like it makes a ton of sense. But you?re betting on Chicago?s defence here. Akiem Hicks is a monster who has recorded 7.0 sacks on the year, and this team is simply great at collapsing the pocket. Without a solid, north-south running game to offset the pass rush, Stafford is going to get crumpled up like a junk food receipt.

I also genuinely like what I?ve seen from the Bears offensively as well. Trubisky has his head back on his shoulders after running for his life, and Dontrelle Inman looks like a serviceable, top receiver considering who he?s competing against on the Bears. Darius Slay is a problem, but Detroit?s lacking run defence can also get floored by Jordan Howard and this very underrated offensive line. Love the Bears here as a pick against the grain.

Los Angeles Chargers -4.5 over Buffalo Bills

After allowing six touchdowns on the ground to New Orleans, the Bills visit the Chargers and ex-coach Anthony Lynn. One of the best known qualities about Lynn is his penchant for creating exciting running games. He led the Bills to the top-ranked rushing attacks for two straight seasons, and did the same with the Jets in 2014. In other words, if there?s a guy who knows how to splice up the Bills, it?s Anthony Lynn.

The Chargers have a lot to make up for after giving a game away to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they?ll find some reprieve by only having to deal with Nathan Peterman. As we saw last week, the turnover-happy Chargers? secondary is not to be messed with. Los Angeles is still 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games and worth banging on in a matchup with a fifth round quarterback making his first start for no apparent reason.

Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 over Denver Broncos

The Bengals are by and large the most unpredictable team in the entire league. Gamblers have long known that they?re a laughing stock because of some awful coaching, but there?s still world class talent on this team. At the oddest of times, the Bengals can put together really strong efforts. When we say ?odd?, it?s worth pointing out that they?re 1-3 ATS at home and 3-2 ATS when travelling.

Denver is as big of a bet-off team as they come. At just 2-6-1 ATS on the year, they?re one of the worst bets there is, and this is a bad matchup no matter which was you slice it. The Bengals have a good secondary, and the unimaginative play calling of Denver is going to get them in to an unexpected dogfight that they can?t win.

Any positive inklings that we had about the Broncos in terms of defence has vanished in to thin air. Despite being ranked 4th in total yards against, they allow an astronomical amount of points by comparison. They rank 29th with 26.6 points against on average, which more than explains their brutal 0-5 SU and ATS streak.

If you want to know how bad they are in a nutshell, the Bengals are more trustworthy than the Broncos. That?s how disdainful things have gotten in the Rocky Mountains.

Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 over Dallas Cowboys

This is a reminder that there?s no reason to get cute with the Dallas Cowboys. Without Ezekiel Elliot, they?re a bad football team. What?s becoming a known quantity about head coach Jason Garrett is that he can?t adjust to injuries. At full strength, the Cowboys are as good as anyone. Without their star running back, they?re as pedestrian as you or me. It?s seriously awful to watch.

We don?t normally write about the Eagles in this space because there?s no need to. You should be betting on them hand over fist with their 7-2 ATS record. This line is criminally low simply because the oddsmakers expect a huge public backing for the Dallas Cowboys. There?s also the old adage of ?NFC East games are nightmares?.

No matter what, bet the Eagles. It?s suicide to throw a prayer up and hope that the Dallas Cowboys can play competent football after getting eviscerated by the Atlanta Falcons. America?s Team is depleted, banged up and ready for slaughter.

 

[Cnotes53]

Offensive ROY Odds
November 17, 2017

Gauging Value in NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Futures

After Week 1, it looked like the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds were a done deal. But in the last month, consensus favorite Kareem Hunt has tailored off a bit and allowed the rest of his explosive class to catch up to him. Here?s an update on the Rookie of the Year odds at BetOnline.ag and where some strong stash investments lie.

Kareem Hunt (-200) ? Kansas City Chiefs

Let?s start at the top, where Hunt retains his title as the favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year despite some recent struggles. Overshadowing the downturn in his production is what he?s managed to accomplish in steady production. Hunt is currently second to Le?Veon Ball in rushing yards this season.

Almost all of that production came in the first five weeks of the season, where he went over 100 yards in four games while scoring all six of his touchdowns. In the past four games, he?s averaged just 47.8 yards per game and has been held scoreless for six straight weeks.

It?s not that Hunt is a bad player, but teams have figured him out to a certain extent. The Cowboys bottled him up and the rest of the Chiefs offence, and Hunt failed to elude the Denver front-seven as well. In short, he?s had some bad matchups over the last four games which might excuse his production.

But it?s also worth pointing out that Hunt has never ever been on a stage this big for this long. That?s a byproduct of playing for a school like Toledo. Hunt deserves to be the frontrunner in this market, but his production needs a big jump if he?s to fend off some of his fellow draftees.

Next Game: Kansas City -10 at NYG

Leonard Fournette (+450) ? Jacksonville Jaguars

It?s hard to say that Fournette is the most talented rookie to come out of the 2017 draft class, but he?s pretty damn close. What?s killing his value overall is that he?s missed two games due to injury and team misconduct (he missed the team photo and that?s apparently a sin). Fournette is averaging 89.6 yards per game, which is slightly better than Hunt?s 88.9 yards per game. Had he played a full slate, Fournette would be an amazing value play but the missed games is going to hamper him. He?s also a risky play given that his ankle is shaky. Wouldn?t regret laying down money behind him, but he?s certainly not a lock.

Next Game: Jacksonville -7.5 at Cleveland

Christian McAffery (+3300) ? Carolina Panthers

You want to know how insulting these odds are? Chicago Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has the same odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. That?s totally unfair.

McAffery gets dinged because his numbers don?t jump off the page, but his recent uptick in production is vital here. The Panthers jettisoned Kelvin Benjamin (for no apparent reason other than not wanting to pay him) and we all saw what the likes of Curtis Samuel can do to help move the chains. In the end, McAffery is a running-back but he?s also leading all rookies with 57 receptions this year for 433 yards. To put those catches in perspective, he ranks 6th in all of football.

The stats for McAffery are concerning given that he?s only totaled 639 yards on offence, and has yet to break off one of those dazzling kick return highlights that he submitted weekly at Stanford.

However, he?s a stat nerds dream bet. McAffery?s usage is peculiar because Ron Rivera is a weird play caller, and that?s really going to be what makes McAffery a runner-up here. The Panthers have toned down the ?big play? part of their offence and gone to a dink-and-dunk variation that unfortunately limits McAffery?s ability to break out in to open space. His longest carry this year has been for just 17 yards, and his longest reception went for 37.

Where McAffery?s value spikes, however, is in touchdowns. He?s scored three of his five total scores in the past two weeks, and if he rips off a season-ending barrage of scores that leads all rookies then he?s undeniably in the mix. At 33-to-1 there?s probably no better value play from a payout standpoint. You?re right to ignore him for a lot of reasons, but those who are in love with his ability wouldn?t be crucified for lobbing a flier at a potentially massive payout.

Next Game: BYE WEEK

Alvin Kamara (+250) ? New Orleans Saints

Nobody will openly say it, but Kamara is everything we expected McAffery to be. He has 42 receptions on the year for 373 yards and has added 417 on the ground. Kamara is simply a huge producer in all the right places, and his team is one of the best in the league right now. What makes Kamara?s production even more amazing is that he?s accomplishing all of this as a backup running back behind a resurgent Mark Ingram. Kamara is by and large the deserving second-favorite, but it?s impossible to gauge his production unless you consider that he?s been devilishly consistent all year long. I just don?t know if he stands out on his own team enough to warrant a play.

Next Game: Washington at New Orleans -7.5

Evan Engram (+2000) ? New York Giants
If there has been one bright spot on the Giants this year, it?s Evan Engram. He has quickly become one of the best tight ends in football and has notched 40 catches on 72 targets with 443 yards receiving and 5 touchdowns. And while this is all grand, Engram is on the worst team in the entire league meaning that nobody?s going to care what he does. Engram will save your fantasy football season, but he?s not going to save the Giants so venturing on a 200-to-1 play like this is basically idiotic.

Next Game: Kansas City -10 at NYG

 

[Cnotes53]

SNF - Eagles at Cowboys
November 17, 2017

Just who is America's real team?

If walking into a Las Vegas sports book or two this weekend, do a random survey with some of the ticket writers and ask them who who has been America's most popular NFL team this season with the bettors. "America's Team" based on betting popularity. Yes, that's how it should always be surveyed. It may have been the Cowboys (5-4 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) last season, but there's no doubt that this season it's all about the Eagles.

What's crazy about the Eagles (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS), as they head into Dallas Sunday night for Week 11 action, is that MVP candidate Carson Wentz (23 TD, 5 picks) and the Eagles seem to be getting better every week. They have the best record in the NFL, ride a seven game won streak and have covered inflated spreads in their last six. The bandwagon gets crowded awfully quick when bettors keep cashing weekly on the same team.

There's a Super Bowl feel to them and Wentz has a likable quality that every common man seems to like. He's a lunch-pail QB, tough and rugged. They're a fun team and they are the NFC's favorite to win the Super Bowl at 5-to-1 odds.

But let's look deeper at who they really are and who they played. Their only loss was 27-20 at Kansas City (-4). After that, they beat the Giants (+5) by 3, won 26-24 at the Chargers (-2), 34-7 against Arizona (+6), 28-23 at Carolina (-3) and then three straight home wins against Washington (+5), San Francisco (+13) and Denver (+7). The seven-game winning streak was basically against a bunch of teams going nowhere. Maybe Carolina is a playoff team, but all the others were exposed as poor teams before the Eagles put their stamp on it.

So maybe this is a spot for Dallas to step up at home and pull off the upset win. Even without star RB Ezekiel Elliott (suspended), the Cowboys still figure to be a stiffer test than those teams in the seven-game win streak. Their rating this week is only a half-point lower than Carolina and several points higher than the other six.

The Cowboys will need an inspired defensive performance and will likely be without LB Sean Lee, who takes the defense to a different level. QB Dak Prescott is having a stellar year with 16 TD passes and only 4 interceptions. He also using his legs often averaging 7.4 yards per run and 5 TDs. It's going to be squarely on Prescott to get this win. The Falcons defense showed last week they didn't respect Elliott's back-up Alfred Morris and didn't feel need to stack the line like teams try to do to Elliott. That's why this is all on Prescott, and it would be nice if WR Dez Bryant showed up with some sizzle and grab his first 100 yard game of the season.

LINE MOVEMENT

We have quite a shift on this one. In May, CG Technology sports books in Las Vegas posted spreads on every NFL game, Weeks 1-16. This game was supposed to Cowboys -7. When they re-opened the game on Sunday night they posted Eagles -3 -120 and it was quickly bet up to -3 -125. On Tuesday, they had enough risk to force a move to -3.5 and on Wednesday evening they moved to -4. The total at 48 hasn't moved and the money-line has Philly -185 with the Cowboys getting +165 as a home dog.

ROBERTS' RATING

The Cowboys' rating took a major blow following their 27-7 loss at Atlanta last week. They took the hit for poor play as well as not having Elliott, who has a player rating that is open to much debate. It's rare to see a non-QB player be worth 2 points, but the dynamic Elliott is certainly worth it. So in one week, I dropped the Cowboys just over 2.5 points. The Eagles rating is 1-point higher than it was for the Week 9 game against Denver because of great play, but more about public perception. So coming into this game, I have the Eagles 3.5-points better than Dallas on a neutral field and I give the Cowboys just under 2.5-points for home field. My number says Eagles -1 and a popularity tax has to be added just to stay ahead of the betting curve. Maybe -2.5 or -3 is the better number consider bettors believe what they saw last, and the Falcons sure did a number on Dallas.

RECENT MEETINGS

The road team has gone 8-3 ATS in the past 11 meetings, however, the home team held serve in both meetings last season to end a 6-0 road team run. The Eagles 27-13 win in Week 17 last season is a little misleading because Mark Sanchez took the most snaps as Dallas rested starters having clinched everything already. In the Cowboys' home game on October 30, they went to overtime to win 29-23 and cover the 5-point spread.

SUNDAY NIGHT PROPS (WESTGATE)

Total Passing yards by Carson Wentz: 260.5
Total TD passes by Carson Wentz: 2
Total receiving yards by Alshon Jeffery: 63.5
Total completions by Dak Prescott: 21.5
Total TD passes by Dak Prescott: 1.5 OV -130
Total sacks both teams combined: 5

NEXT WEEK

The Westgate SuperBook posted Week 12 spreads on Tuesday and listed the Cowboys as 4-point home favorites against the Chargers on Thanksgiving Day. The Eagles get another hefty number, this one being 11.5-point home favorites against the Bears.

DIVSION ODDS

With Philadelphia's three-game lead in the NFC East, the Westgate has taken down odds to win the division just because it seems certain the Eagles will win. When the odds first opened in May, the Cowboys were 5/4 favorites, followed by the Giants (11/4), Eagles (7/2) and Redskins (9/2).

SUPER BOWL ODDS

When the odds first opened in January, you could have had the Eagles at 60-to-1 to win their first Super Bowl. Now with the best record in the NFL, they're down to 5/1 and considered the favorite among NFC team. The Saints are next at 6/1. On the AFC side, the Patriots are the 7/2 favorites followed by the Steelers (4/1). The Cowboys opened at 10/1 as one of the NFC favorites, but at 5-4 they're not even in line for a playoff spot in the competitive NFC. If thinking they can shake things up and make a run with Elliott down the stretch, they're currently 40/1.