Cnotes53 College Basketball Best Bets/Trends/ News Thru The Madness !

[Cnotes53]

South Regional Final
March 23, 2018

Ramble On
And now?s the time, the time is now
To sing my song
I?m goin? ?round the world, I got to find my girl
On my way
I?ve been this way ten years to the day
I gotta ramble on
I gotta find the queen of all my dreams

-- Led Zeppelin

The great rock tune, ?Ramble On,? from Led Zeppelin seems to apply to these Ramblers, who are seeking victory No. 32 and an invite to the 2018 Final Four in San Antonio when they take on Kansas State at Philips Arena in Atlanta on Saturday.

These are the most unlikely of participants in the South Region finals. Loyola-Chicago needed a buzzer beater to edge Miami and a go-ahead bucket with 3.6 seconds left to clip Tennessee in the first weekend. Then high-powered Nevada raced out to a double-digit lead early in the first half of Thursday?s region-semifinal showdown.

But Porter Moser?s team has yet to flinch. And at this point, why would anyone doubt this team, one that?s been a model of consistency all season?

I watched this squad go into Gainesville and put on a defensive clinic at the O-Dome on Dec. 6. The Ramblers led nearly the entire game in a 65-59 win at Florida as 16-point road underdogs.

But here?s the rub: The Gators were the only foe Loyola-Chicago faced that made the field coming into the Tournament. The Missouri Valley, a conference without Wichita State and Creighton any longer, clearly isn?t what it once was.

However, with wins over UF, UM, UT and now Nevada in its pocket, Loyola-Chicago need not fret about playing any ?respect card? moving forward. This team can play and that?s been clear as day to all observers in its run to the Elite Eight for the first time since the school won the national championship in 1963.

Most books opened this game as a pick ?em with a total of 126.5 points. As of Friday afternoon, most spots had Kansas St. (25-11 straight up, 16-17 against the spread) installed as a 1.5-point ?chalk.?

KSU has an underdog story of its own, wearing that label in two of its three wins to get here. The other victory came over the ultimate ?dog, the first No. 16 seed to beat a top seed in UMBC.

Bruce Weber?s squad started its run by ousting one that used to be its own. Marcus Foster began his career at KSU, leading the Wildcats in scoring (15.5 points per game) as a true freshman in 2014. However, the relationship between Foster and Weber soured to the point that Foster transferred to Creighton following his sophomore campaign.

After sitting out the 2015-16 season via transfer rules, Foster shined for the Bluejays over the last two years. After averaging 18.2 PPG as a junior, Foster averaged 19.8 PPG this year while shooting at career-best clips from the field (46.1%), 3-point land (41.3%) and the free-throw line (74.4%).

Foster had scored at least 12 points in 31 of Creighton?s first 32 games. His lowest scoring output was nine points coming into the first-round matchup with his former team. Kansas State held Foster to a season-low five points on 2-of-11 field-goal attempts.

Creighton had scored at least 70 points in 29 of its first 32 games and had produced 68 or more in 31 of its first 32 outings. The Bluejays were ranked 12th in the country in scoring with an 83.5 PPG average.

Nevertheless, KSU captured a 69-59 win over Creighton as a 2.5-point underdog, holding it to a season-low scoring output. The 128 combined points fell ?under? the 144-point tally. With star center Dean Wade sidelined with a foot injury the first weekend, Barry Brown stepped up with 18 points, six rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocked shots. Mike McGuirl drained 3-of-5 attempts form 3-point range in a 17-point effort. The Wildcats hit 3-balls at a 9-for-19 rate (47.4%) to help overcome woeful FT shooting (14-of-25, 56.0%).

Kansas State failed to cover the number in last Sunday?s 50-43 win over UMBC as a 10.5-point ?chalk.? Brown led the way again with 18 points to help his club overcome 1-of-12 shooting from downtown (8.3%). Makol Mawien added 11 points, six rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.

This sent Weber?s team to ?Catlanta to face what was a virtually a road game against Kentucky in Thursday?s region semifinal. For decades, the UK fan base has been notorious for taking over the city of Atlanta for SEC Tournaments, which used to be played at the Georgia Dome nearly every year.

But Big Blue Nation was of no help to the ?Cats on Thursday, nor was the abysmal FT shooting of freshman P.J. Washington, who had 18 points, 15 rebounds and three steals but went 8-of-20 at the charity stripe.

Kansas State won a 61-58 decision as a 5.5-point underdog, hooking up money-line supporters with a payout in the +210 range. The 119 combined points dropped ?under? the 136.5-point total.

Xavier Sneed was the catalyst, scoring 22 points to go with nine rebounds, two steals and one assist without a turnover. He wasn?t available at crunch time after fouling out, though. In fact, overtime would?ve been real scary for KSU with three players fouling out with time to spare in regulation.

But as it has throughout the Tournament to date, KSU got the stops when it needed them most. Brown added 13 points, three boards and three assists. Wade finally played but the foot injury slowed him down and limited him to only eight minutes of playing time. He had four points, one rebound and one steal.

Wade is listed as ?questionable? against the Ramblers. He averages 16.2 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals and 0.8 blocked shots per game. Brown (16.0 PPG) averages team-highs in assists (3.3 APG) and steals (1.8 SPG), while Sneed averages 11.0 points and 5.1 RPG. Mawien (6.9 PPG, 3.4 RPG) is the team?s rim protector with 1.2 blocked shots per contest.

Loyola-Chicago (31-5 SU, 22-9 ATS) has tasted defeat just once since Jan. 5, winning 20 of its past 21 games with the lone defeat coming by a 69-67 count at Bradley on Jan. 31. Since then, the Ramblers have won 13 games in a row while producing a 10-3 spread record. If the line holds and leaves them as underdogs, they?ll feel perfectly comfortable in that role that?s resulted in a 6-1-1 spread record with six outright victories.

Moses?s team beat Miami 64-62 as a 1.5-point ?dog thanks to Deonte Ingram?s 3-ball from well beyond the top of the key to beat the horn. Clayton Custer scored 14 points and handed out four helpers without committing a turnover. Ingram had 13 points and seven rebounds, while Aundre Jackson had 12 points. Cameron Krutwig chipped in 11 points and four boards on 4-of-6 FGAs.

Loyola-Chicago needed Custer?s go-ahead basket with 3.6 ticks left to nip third-seeded Tennessee by a 63-62 count as a five-point underdog in the Round of 32. The Ramblers had balanced scoring with seven players producing six points or more. Jackson had a game-high 16 points on 5-of-7 FGAs, while Custer tallied 10 points on 4-of-5 FGAs and 2-of-2 shooting from long distance.

In a Loyola-Chicago section at Philips Arena on Thursday, there was a sign reading, ?Mission From God.? This was obviously referencing the Chicago-centric movie, ?The Blues Brothers,? featuring star actors John Belushi and Dan Aykroyd. It also had to somewhat elude to one of this Tournament?s beloved characters, 98-year-old Sister Jean Dolores-Schmidt, the nun and team chaplain whose popularity continues to rise.

Sister Jean had Loyola making the Sweet 16 in her bracket, but she didn?t pick her school to advance further. Well, her pre-tourney prediction was off the mark as the Ramblers beat Nevada 68-68 thanks to Marques Townes?s 3-pointer from the right wing off a shot fake and a dribble just before the shot-clock buzzer to put his team up four with 6.1 seconds remaining.

Townes stole the show in the ATL, scoring 18 points on 6-of-10 FGAs. He had five assists, four rebounds and one steal while also hitting both of his attempts form downtown and all four of his FTs. Custer added 15 points, four assists, three rebounds and three steals, while Jackson also finished with 15 points.

Custer paces the Ramblers in scoring (13.4 PPG), assists (4.2 APG) and steals (1.5 SPG). All five starters average in double figures, with Ingram, Jackson and Townes averaging 11.2 PPG apiece. Krutwig (10.4 PPG) paces Loyola in rebounding (6.3 RPG) and FG percentage (60.0%).

The Ramblers are extremely efficient at both ends of the floor, ranking fifth in the nation in scoring defense (62.4 PPG) and third in field-goal percentage (50.7%). They are 19th in the country in 3-point accuracy (39.7%).

After cashing in their eighth straight game in Thursday?s win over UNR, the ?under? improved to 20-12 overall for the Ramblers.

The ?under? has been a winner in all three of K-State?s Tournament games and is now 21-11-1 overall.

TBS will have the telecast with the tip scheduled for 6:05 p.m. Eastern.

 

[Cnotes53]

West Regional Final
March 23, 2018

When I was on the ?Out of Bounds Show? with Qualk and Kelly on a 105.5 The Roar in Clemson on Wednesday afternoon, they asked me how I felt about Michigan, the team I picked to win it all. I said, ?Michigan played terrible last weekend and yet still advanced. It got through the first weekend without playing well and still has a pulse. That?s a great thing and I expect them to play lights out moving forward.?

Of course, John Beilein?s team will need to play lights out three more times to cut the nets down in San Antonio. But if Thursday?s run-away-and-hide beatdown of Texas A&M was any indicator, Michigan?s chances to get to San Antonio and thrive are looking good.

The Aggies were fresh off dealing out a pimpslap of their own the previous Sunday, when they destroyed North Carolina 86-65 as seven-point underdogs in the Round of 32. But Billy Kennedy?s bunch was on the receiving end Thursday at Staples Center in Los Angeles, where the Wolverines rolled out to a 52-28 halftime lead and coasted to a 99-72 triumph.

Michigan (31-7 straight-up, 24-12-1 against the spread)easily covered the way-too-short 2.5-point number. The 171 combined points dropped ?under? the 136-point total.

Muhammad-Ali-Abdur-Rahkman led the way with 24 points, five rebounds, one steal and seven assists compared to just one turnover. Mo Wagner added 21 points, three boards and two steals while shooting making 8-of-12 FGAs, all three of his launches from downtown and both of his FTAs. Charles Matthews had 18 points and five boards, draining 8-of-11 FGAs. Zavier Simpson contributed 11 points, six steals, five assists and four rebounds. Duncan Robinson was also in double figures with 10 points, as he buried 2-of-3 launches from 3-point land.

Before blasting Texas A&M, Michigan had to overcome an early 10-0 deficit to Montana, the winner of the Big Sky?s regular-season title and Tournament championship. The Wolverines would shake that poor start off and lead by three at halftime. Then they outscored the Grizzlies 30-19 in the final 20 minutes to pull away for a 61-47 victory as 10-point favorites. The 108 combined points dipped ?under? the 134-point total.

Matthews stole the show with 20 points and 11 rebounds, while Abdur-Rahkman added 11 points, five boards, two assists and two steals.

Waiting for Beilein?s bunch in the Round of 32 was Houston, which closed last Saturday night as a 3.5-point underdog. Neither team would build a lead of more than six points in this back-and-forth affair. The Cougars seemed to be in control late in the final minute but Devin Davis, who had made his first eight free throws of the game, missed three of his last four. The final miss came with UH holding a two-point lead and gave Michigan one last chance.

The Wolverines advanced the ball into the front court and passed to freshman Jordan Poole, who only had time to catch, elevate and shoot a deep 3-ball from the right wing. The buzzer sounded with the ball in mid-air just before it caught nothing but nylon. Final Score: Michigan 64, Houston 63.

Kelvin Sampson?s club took the cash however as 3.5-point underdogs. Abdur-Rahkman and Wagner shared team-best scoring honors with 12 points apiece. Matthews and Robinson chipped in with 11 points apiece.

Wagner paces the Wolverines in scoring (14.4 points per game), rebounding (6.9 RPG) and FG percentage (53.1%). Matthews is averaging 12.9 points and 5.5 RPG, but he?s a liability from the FT line (57.0%). Abdur-Rahkman (12.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG) has a remarkable 128/28 assist-to-turnover ratio and makes 38.5 percent of his 3-pointers. Simpson (7.4 PPG) is the team leader in assists (3.7 APG) and steals (1.3 SPG).

As of Friday afternoon, most books had Michigan listed as a 4.5-point ?chalk? with a total of 143.5. The Seminoles are +170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170).

Michigan is ranked ninth in the nation in scoring defense, limiting foes to 63.3 PPG. The Wolverines are 10-6 ATS in 16 games as single-digit favorites.

FSU (23-11 SU, 18-13 ATS) was in a 1-7 ATS slump entering the Tournament, but it has taken the cash in all three of its Tourney victories. Leonard Hamilton?s team caught a break when Missouri?s second-leading scorer Jordan Barnett was suspended for its opener after being arrested on DUI charges.

Barnett might not have made any difference because FSU took control early and darted out to a 42-20 halftime lead. The Seminoles cruised to a 67-54 win as 1.5-point favorites. Trent Forrest scored eight points, grabbed six rebounds, had three steals, blocked two shots and dished out eight assists compared to only one turnover. Mfiondu Kabengele finished with 14 points, 12 rebounds and two blocked shots.

FSU took on top-seeded Xavier in Nashville last Sunday night and found itself trailing by 12 points midway through the second half. The Seminoles? defense was dominant at crunch time, however, forcing six turnovers in the Musketeers? final nine possessions. An 18-4 run to end the game lifted the ?Noles to a 75-70 victory as 5.5-point underdogs.

Braian Angola scored 16 points to go with six rebounds, three assists, two steals and one blocked shot. Forrest added 13 points, five boards, four steals and three assists.

After playing late Sunday night in Music City, FSU had to travel back to Tallahassee. Then after spending less than 36 hours at home, the ?Noles had to make the cross-country flight to L.A. to meet Gonzaga, which has played in Boise on Thursday and Saturday of the previous weekend.

These travel factors that seemed advantageous to Mark Few?s team didn?t matter. FSU took a comfortable lead early and had a counter for every run Gonzaga tried to make. Hamilton?s bunch won a 75-60 decision as a six-point underdog to advance to the program?s first Elite Eight appearance since it lost to Kentucky in 1993 with a Pat Kennedy team that featured players like Charlie Ward, Sam Cassell, Doug Edwards, Rodney Dobard and Bobby Sura.

Terance Mann led the way past the ?Zags with 18 points and five rebounds. Angola and C.J. Walker contributed nine points apiece, but this win was mostly about defense. The Bulldogs made only 33.9 percent of their FGAs and just 5-of-20 (25.0%) launches from long distance.

FSU owns a 6-5 spread record with five outright victories in 11 games as an underdog this season.

Mann averages team-bests in scoring (12.9 PPG), rebounding (5.5 RPG) and FG percentage (56.5%). Phil Cofer averages 12.8 PPG and buries 37.9 percent of his 3-pointers.

The ?under? is 18-16-2 overall for Michigan, going 2-0 in its first two games of the Tournament.

The ?over? is 17-15 overall for FSU despite three straight ?unders? in this Tournament.

These schools met in the first round of the 2007 NCAA Tournament, with FSU winning 87-66 as a 7.5-point favorite. They haven?t squared off since Nov. 22 of 2013 when Michigan won 82-80 in overtime as a two-point ?chalk.? Nik Stauskas scored 26 points to help the Wolverines overcome a 10-point intermission deficit.

Tip-off at Staples Center in L.A. is scheduled for 8:45 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

 

[Cnotes53]

Hamilton fosters Florida State's spirit
March 23, 2018

LOS ANGELES (AP) Florida State takes its win-by-committee philosophy seriously.

The Seminoles crowded six players on the dais with coach Leonard Hamilton for Friday's news conference at Staples Center. They were only required to bring five, but nobody gets left out on this team, including the walk-ons.

Most coaches shorten their bench the closer they get to the Final Four, but Hamilton won't consider going away from his 11-man rotation. As a result, every player believes they are equally as important as their teammates.

''The coaches preach all the time it's going to be a different guy every night,'' forward Phil Cofer said. ''Everybody is definitely locked into helping each other.''

Ninth-seeded Florida State (23-11) plays No. 3 seed Michigan (31-7) on Saturday in the West Region final. A victory would move the Seminoles into the Final Four for the second time in school history. They lost to UCLA in the 1972 national championship game.

''We always envisioned this and we always talked about it,'' guard Terance Mann said, ''so to finally be here definitely means a lot.''

The Seminoles have knocked off three higher-seeded teams in the NCAA Tournament, including No. 1 Xavier in the second round.

Each opponent experienced Florida State's so-called junkyard defense, a scrappy mindset embodied by pressuring the ball and going after little things like steals and deflections.

''Playing hard to exhaustion,'' Cofer adds. ''That's one of the key things of our junkyard defense.''

At one time, the Seminoles kept a picture of a dog with a collar in the locker room and each player touched it on their way to the court.

''We want to be like junkyard dogs that really want to protect their yard,'' Hamilton said, adding with a laugh, ''It doesn't always work now. Sometimes we run into some junkyard lions, elephants.''

''Coach Ham,'' as he's known to his players, has fostered an unselfish spirit among his players despite initial skepticism.

''Everybody at first was like, `Uh, I don't know about this,''' Cofer said, ''but when we started winning games it kind of changes everything.''

And when they're trailing and the outcome is in doubt, Hamilton is in his players' ears with positivity.

''He's always encouraging us,'' Cofer said. ''We even get down on ourselves and he just keeps telling us to keep pushing through. It gives us confidence. It feels like a second father.''

Hamilton credits his upbringing in the church for his nurturing manner. Growing up in the South, he would attend a different church every Sunday with his grandmother. Living close enough to hear the church organ in his bedroom, he developed a passion for gospel music and owns a record label.

''It's kind of my way of giving back,'' he said.

Hamilton, who at 69 could pass for someone much younger, is known to dance and joke with his players. He doesn't drink or smoke, although he admits to cursing ''every once in a while.''

In his three years at Florida State, Mann has seen a number of former players who come back and visit Hamilton, and also reach out to the current team.

That sense of community, more than his 1978 national championship ring as a Kentucky assistant or his other coaching honors, is what Hamilton enjoys.

''I'm more excited about when they graduate and get their degrees, when I get a chance to go to their weddings and be the godfather to their kids,'' the coach said.

With Michigan and its 12-game winning streak looming, Hamilton is eager to see his players create more memories they can cherish the rest of their lives.

''I hope that my reward would be to see the smiles on their face and hear their tone of voice and the excitement in it if we can win this game tomorrow,'' he said. ''This is a bunch of guys that are connected together. They cheer for one another.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Michigan shoots for Final Four berth
March 23, 2018

LOS ANGELES (AP) No. 9 seed Florida State (23-11) vs. No. 3 seed Michigan (31-7)

Final, West Region, Los Angeles, Saturday, approximately 8:49 p.m.

BOTTOM LINE: Michigan could earn a trip to its first Final Four since 2013 by setting a school record with its 32nd victory, but the Big Ten tournament champions must avoid becoming the fourth consecutive upset victim of Florida State. The Seminoles are surprisingly on the brink of the second Final Four in school history after extending the momentum from their upset of top-seeded Xavier last week by knocking out Gonzaga.

BIGGER NUMBERS: After mostly muddling through last week's opening NCAA Tournament games, the Wolverines hit their offensive stride with a 99-point thrashing of Texas A&M in the Sweet Sixteen. Coach John Beilein credits his players' embrace of their up-tempo, aggressive approach while hitting nearly 62 percent of their shots. Michigan had five double-digit scorers in the Sweet Sixteen game, while Florida State had just one while beating Gonzaga.

RARE AIR: Florida State is in the Elite Eight for just the third time in school history, while Michigan has made it three times in the last six years alone. These Seminoles probably aren't coach Leonard Hamilton's most talented team, but they embrace his motto of ''18 Strong'' by playing tremendous team ball on both ends, focused on game-changing defense. Florida State's only other Final Four trip came in 1972.

ON A ROLL: Michigan's 12-game winning streak is the second-longest in the nation thanks to the Seminoles, who ended the Zags' 16-game winning streak.

QUOTABLE: ''We realize they have a unique system. They have a 7-footer that shoots 40 percent (on 3-pointers), which is unusual in itself. We have a couple of 7-footers that are more low post-type guys that don't guard people on the perimeter as well as probably you would need to. So we have adjustments we're going to have to make.'' - Hamilton on Moritz Wagner, Michigan's sharpshooting German big man

 

[Cnotes53]

Loyola to test Kansas State's strong D in regional final
March 23, 2018

ATLANTA (AP) Kansas State has been an afterthought through the NCAA Tournament - until now.

Even in the South Region, where the top four seeds were bounced out on the first weekend - a first for the NCAA Tournament - no one was really talking about these Wildcats.

There were those other Wildcats from Kentucky, which Kansas State sent home; the comeback kids from Nevada and of course the feel-good story of the tournament, Loyola-Chicago.

''We played with a chip on our shoulder throughout the whole season, just trying to prove people wrong,'' said Kansas State guard Kamau Stokes. ''And I feel like we're showing them.''

The ninth-seeded Wildcats are indeed making a point. And so is their opponent Saturday night, No. 11 Loyola.

It is an unlikely pairing to play for a Final Four berth.

No. 9 vs. No. 11 in the Elite Eight, another NCAA Tournament first.

But then again, perhaps Kansas State's path to the regional final should not be seen as a surprise. The Wildcats have brought back-alley toughness to the Elite Eight. They don't back down.

They are winning with consistently strong defense that is proving to be the equalizer against higher seeds.

''I don't feel like anyone should pay attention to seeds because they are just opinions, you know? Opinions,'' Stokes said. ''The Top 25 is all opinions and then of course you have to win to get to this tournament. So, once you get here, it's like seeds don't matter at this point.''

Kansas State's opponents can't win if they can't score, and the Wildcats (25-11) have held seven straight teams below 59 points. The latest demonstration of Kansas State's defensive prowess came in Thursday night's 61-58 win over Kentucky, which was held to a season scoring low.

Asked on Friday to define Kansas State basketball, junior Barry Brown said ''First off, it's defending. We take a lot of pride on defense.''

Coach Bruce Weber said ''there's no doubt'' Brown is the team's defensive catalyst.

''When he was a freshman, I said, who's going to be our defensive stopper, and he's very stubborn,'' said Weber of Brown. ''He's a little bit confident, overconfident, but he said `I am going to be, coach.' ... He's been the leader. Xavier (Sneed) has really taken some pride as the season has gone on in being a stopper. We've convinced him of that. And then the other guys just have kind of bought into it.''

Loyola (31-5) has won its three NCAA Tournament games by a combined four points.

In each NCAA win the Ramblers found a different player to deliver the big shot in the closing seconds. In Thursday night's 69-68 win over Nevada, only 6.3 seconds remained in the game when Marques Townes barely beat the shot clock with his crucial 3-pointer.

Loyola's 13-game winning streak, the longest active streak in the nation, has left the Ramblers one win away from only the second Final Four appearance in school history. The 1963 team won the national championship.

Kansas State will play for its first Final Four berth since 1964.

---

Here are some more things to know about the Loyola-Kansas State regional final.

LONG-AWAITED REVENGE: Former Kansas State player Ernie Barrett, who played on the team that lost to Kentucky in the 1951 national championship game, hugged players in the locker room following Thursday night's game.

Kansas State had been 0-9 against Kentucky before the regional semifinal. Barrett, 88, had to wait a long time to see his Wildcats finally beat Kentucky.

''It means a lot to us and this program, to the K-State history,'' Brown said Friday. ''He's been to a lot of our practices just to be there and see the hard work that we put in. ... We just wanted to go out there and just do it for him. And once we got it done, I knew he was so proud, was so happy ... just hugging everyone.''

MVC, TAKE A BOW: Loyola coach Porter Moser said his team's success in the tournament should bring more respect to the Missouri Valley Conference.

''I think there's a lot of parity in the game, and I love it for our league,'' Moser said. ''There was a lot of talk that we weren't going to get in if we didn't win the tournament, and we know in the Missouri Valley how good a league it is from top to bottom.''

RESPECT FOR LOYOLA: Weber has tried to make sure his players respect Loyola, even if they may not know much about the team or its history.

''I told the guys, you can't look at the name, you can't look at the league,'' Weber said. ''You've got to look at the team. They're a good team, and I mentioned they beat Florida at Florida earlier in the year, they beat Tennessee who won the SEC; they beat Miami out of the ACC. So they've got to be pretty good, and whatever they've done here as of late, they're hot.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Florida State Seminoles vs. Michigan Wolverines - (TBS, 8:40 p.m. ET)[/B]

The first wave of Elite Eight games is upon us and I can't imagine many expected the four teams involved in Saturday's contests to all still be standing at this juncture. Three of the four teams were seeded #9 or worse, but make no mistake about it, all four of the teams playing on Saturday deserve to be in the position they are in.

The latter of the two games on Saturday is the one I'm choosing to focus on here, but for those of you that may be action junkies, I would suggest leaning towards Kansas State ML/ATS to win the first contest and get to the Final Four.

Loyola's run has been spectacular, but their luck may be on short supply (they've won their three games by a combined 4 points) against this K-State team that is just brimming with confidence after each impressive win of their own.

Michigan (-4.5); Total set at 143.5

There may not be enough superlatives in the English language to describe how dominant Michigan's shooting performance was in the Sweet 16 against Texas A&M, as the Wolverines came out firing from the outset and basically couldn't miss. That game was over within the first 10 minutes of the contest, and the 99 points Michigan put up was by far their biggest point total of the year against a Division I school.

Michigan hit nearly 60% of their three-pointers taken, and the 61.9% field goal percentage they finished the game with was impressive. Moritz Wagner had by far his best game of the tournament and he and the other Wolverines will be looking for a duplicate performance on Saturday. But will they get it?

It is almost with certainty that I can say there is no chance Michigan's offense replicates the performance we saw on Thursday night and that's actually bad news for Wolverines fans. Obviously it's a different opponent and a different attack strategy is likely needed, but we've seen it time and time again in this sport that teams that shoot the lights out of a building one night often have a tough time getting anything to drop the next time out.

Thankfully that game was more anomaly then common occurrence for the Wolverines, as they are a defensive-minded group that prefers to win games 70-65, but I wouldn't be surprised if Michigan struggles to get more than 65 points here. Florida State has only allowed an average of 61.3 points per game in this tournament and that's against three teams that were all ranked higher than the Seminoles.

Sleeping on that number and who it has come against would be a big mistake if you are considering laying the chalk with Michigan here, and when you combine that with the strong likelihood of the Wolverines coming back down to earth with their shooting numbers, there are two best bets that come to light for this game.

The first would be on the total and taking it to finish well below this number. Florida State's season averages (80 points for, 73 points against) and Michigan's scoring bonanza on Thursday have played a big role in putting this number in the 140's, but anything in that range is still too high in my opinion.

The Seminoles have found a tremendous amount of success this tournament by locking things up defensively, using a rotation that is 10 or 11 deep, and frustrating the opposition with countless different looks to break up any sort of rhythm they might have.

Michigan prefers to play a slower pace and keep games in the low 60's when they can and that's likely what they'll look to do here. Statistically the Seminoles can put points up in a hurry and Michigan knows that, so slowing the game down and letting their own defense try to take control will be a big part of the gameplan.

Furthermore, of all the times Michigan scored 80+ in a game and cashed an 'over' ticket in the process, the next time out saw the Wolverines go 0-6-1 O/U this year and the lone push came because OT was needed. This game will end up being a race to 65 and that gives us plenty of wiggle room to cash this 'under.'

The second play I'm looking at for this game is grabbing the points with FSU. If it does indeed turn out to be a race to 65, I prefer Florida State's chances in that regard as they are the ones that are coming off back-to-back 75 point performances against the likes of Xavier and Gonzaga, and when push comes to shove late and either of these teams absolutely need a bucket to close it out, siding with the better offensive team getting points is never a bad option.

Also, I've already touched on the idea that Michigan's offense will come back down to earth here, and depending on how far that fall ends up being, Florida State could be a very live dog to win this game outright and by a big number.

The Seminoles have had the much tougher path to get to this point and unlike Michigan, they didn't need a miracle three-pointer at the buzzer to simply survive. This Seminoles team has too much depth and offensive talent not to be in this game until the final shot (if they even need it) and giving me multiple possession points here is just too good to pass up.
Florida State +4.5

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, March 24


Loyola-Chicago @ Kansas State

Game 513-514
March 24, 2018 @ 6:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Loyola-Chicago
67.229
Kansas State
70.428
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas State
by 3
120
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas State
by 1 1/2
127
Dunkel Pick:
Kansas State
(-1 1/2); Under

Florida State @ Michigan

Game 515-516
March 24, 2018 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Florida State
71.055
Michigan
79.675
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Michigan
by 8 1/2
136
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Michigan
by 4
143 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Michigan
(-4); Under

Central Michigan @ Liberty

Game 517-518
March 24, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Central Michigan
56.274
Liberty
52.246
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Michigan
by 4
132
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Liberty
by 2 1/2
141 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Central Michigan
(+2 1/2); Under




NCAAB
Long Sheet

Saturday, March 24

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOYOLA-IL (31 - 5) vs. KANSAS ST (25 - 11) - 3/24/2018, 6:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOYOLA-IL is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all neutral court games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) when playing on a neutral court this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all tournament games this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LOYOLA-IL is 16-3 ATS (+12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FLORIDA ST (23 - 11) vs. MICHIGAN (31 - 7) - 3/24/2018, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games this season.
MICHIGAN is 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
MICHIGAN is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season.
FLORIDA ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
FLORIDA ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C MICHIGAN (21 - 14) at LIBERTY (21 - 14) - 3/24/2018, 2:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
C MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
C MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 24

Loyola, Chi won its first three tourney games by total of 4 points; they?ve won their last 13 games- since Jan 4th, they?re 20-1. Ramblers are #142 experience team that plays pace #319- they make 39.9% of their 3?s (#15). Loyola is 3-1 vs top 100 teams, with loss at Boise State. Kansas State allowed only 53.3 ppg in winning its first three tourney games; Wildcats are #242 experience team that plays pace #307. K-State is 13-2 outside Big X (NC sked #324); their opponents shoot 32.6% on arc (#40). #11 or lower seeds are 4-3 vs spread in this round, 2-5 SU.

Michigan won its last 12 games; they made 14-24 on arc in rout of Texas A&M Thursday. Wolverines lost by 15 at North Carolina in their only ACC game this year; Michigan is 14-2 outside Big 14, albeit vs #300 NC sked. Florida State played 12 guys in first half Thursday; they?re very deep and very athletic. Seminoles are 14-1 outside ACC, with only loss by point to Oklahoma State (#330 NC sked). FSU won by 5 at Rutgers in their only Big 14 game this year. Over last 20 years, underdogs are 16-4 vs spread in West Region final.

Other tournaments
Liberty hasn?t played in 12 days; they?re #306 experience team that is 6-4 outside Big South- they also had four non-D-I wins. Flames are #306 experience team that plays pace #343- they lost Big South title game at buzzer at Radford, are 6-8 vs top 200 teams, with win at Wake Forest. Central Michigan scored 94-98 points in winning first two games of this tournament; they haven?t played in eight days. Chippewas are 10-2 outside MAC with three non-D-I wins, vs NC schedule #340. CMU won four of its last seven true road games.




NCAAB

Saturday, March 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ LIBERTY
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Central Michigan's last 5 games on the road

LOYOLA-CHICAGO @ KANSAS STATE
Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas State's last 5 games

FLORIDA STATE @ MICHIGAN
Florida State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Florida State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAA Tournament Elite Eight betting preview and odds: Florida State vs. Michigan

The West Region wraps up Saturday night with Michigan taking on Florida State with a trip to the Final Four on the line. The Wolverines haven't lost a game in more than a month, winning 12 straight and covering in 10 of those wins.

(9) Florida State Seminoles vs (3) Michigan Wolverines (-4.5, 143.5)

Third-seeded Michigan looks to stay on course for its second Final Four appearance in six years when it faces No. 9 seed Florida State in the West Regional Final on Saturday in Los Angeles. The Wolverines set a new NCAA Tournament single-game record as eight players made at least one 3-pointer in the impressive 99-72 win against seventh-seeded Texas A&M on Thursday to advance to the Elite 8 for the third time in their last five tournament appearances.

Michigan, which is coming off its most points scored in an NCAA Tournament game since 1992, has won 12 straight games, including nine in a row away from home, and can set a single-season program record with their 32nd victory at the Staples Center. Florida State overpowered No. 4 seed Gonzaga 75-60 to reach the Elite 8 for the first time since 1993. The Seminoles, who had one player finish in double figures against the Bulldogs, blocked nine shots while holding Gonzaga to 33.9 percent shooting from the floor en route to the upset and hope to put the defensive clamps on the hot-shooting Wolverines to reach their first Final Four in 46 years. "We're a team that operates with the philosophy that we have to win games by committee," Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton told reporters. "They're all able to contribute offensively and defensively because of that philosophy."

TV: 8:49 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Michigan opened as 4.5-point favorites and heading into game day the line remains at the opening number. The total hit betting boards at 143 and has been bet up slightly to 143.5.

BETTING STATS:

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE: Terance Mann led the way with 18 points to go along with five rebounds despite being hampered by a groin injury while Braian Angola and C.J. Walker each added nine points in the win against Gonzaga. Trent Forrest provided a big spark off the bench with seven points, six rebounds and six assists while fellow reserve Mfiondu Kabengele was an intimidating force in the paint as he registered a game-high four blocks against the Bulldogs. "It feels great," Forrest told reporters. "We're a team that from the beginning of the season knew that we could make it as far as we wanted to."

ABOUT MICHIGAN: Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman scored 16 of his team-leading 24 points in the second half and dished out seven assists against Texas A&M after shooting a combined 7-of-26 from the floor in his previous two NCAA Tournament games. Moritz Wagner bounced back from two pedestrian performances as he tallied 14 of his 21 points in the first half to set the offensive tone as the Wolverines finished 14-of-24 from 3-point range against the Aggies. Charles Matthews continued his stellar play in the tournament by adding 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting while Zavier Simpson contributed 11 points, six steals and five assists.

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Florida State is 4-0 ATS in its last four non-conference games.
* Michigan is 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a SU win.
* Under is 7-1 in Florid State's last eight non-conference games.
* Under is 4-0-1 in Michigan's last five games after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.

CONSENSUS: Consensus data is showing 68 percent of bettors taking the chalk from Michigan, while 70 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAA Tournament Elite Eight betting preview and odds: Loyola-Chicago vs. Kansas State

The bracket busting South Region wraps up Saturday with Loyola-Chicago taking on Kansas State with a ticket to the Final Four on the line. Neither team was projected to make it out of the first weekend and the Ramblers have won three NCAA tournament games by a combined four points.

(11) Loyola-Chicago Ramblers vs (9) Kansas State Wildcats (-1.5, 126.5)

An unlikely trip to the Final Four wouldn?t mark uncharted territory for Loyola Chicago or Kansas State, but neither team has advanced that far in more than five decades. The teams that busted up the NCAA Tournament?s South Regional bracket - the ninth-seeded Wildcats and the 11th-seeded Ramblers - square off Saturday in Atlanta with a long-awaited return to the Final Four on the line.

Kansas State is in the Elite Eight for the first time since 2010, but the Wildcats lost the last six times they had a chance to advance to the Final Four. Their last trip came in 1964 - one year after Loyola claimed the national title in their only Final Four trip. The Ramblers were a power in the 1960s but hadn?t been in the NCAA Tournament since 1985 before this year?s Cinderella run in which the Ramblers have won three games by a total of four points, including a 69-68 win over No. 7 seed Nevada on Thursday. Kansas State, which overcame foul trouble to escape with a 61-58 win over No. 5 seed Kentucky on Thursday, will be the lowest-seeded team Loyola has faced thus far after beating the Nos. 6, 3, and 7 seeds.

TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS

LINE HISTORY: Oddsmakers opened Kansas State as 1-point chalk and heading into game day they have been bet up to -1.5 at most books. The total hit betting boards at 127 and has dropped slightly to 126.5.

BETTING STATS:

ABOUT LOYOLA CHICAGO: The Ramblers have won 13 straight - the longest streak in the nation - and 20 of their last 21. They closed out the win over Nevada by shooting 75 percent in the second half, as Marques Townes (11.2 points) and Aundre Jackson (11.2 points) made key 3-pointers down the stretch. Five players averaged double-digit scoring with Clayton Custer (13.4) - the hero of the Tennessee win - leading the way.

ABOUT KANSAS STATE: Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the Wildcats? run through the tournament - which was aided by No. 16 seed Maryland-Baltimore County knocking off overall No. 1 seed Virginia - is the fact they?ve done it with very little contribution from leading scorer and rebounder Dean Wade (16.2 points, 6.2 rebounds). The 6-10 center missed the first two games with a foot injury and was limited to eight minutes against Kentucky. Point guard Barry Brown (16 points, 3.3 assists) and swingman Xavier Sneed (11 points, 5.1 rebounds) have stepped up to carry the load in his absence.

MATCHUP CHART:

TRENDS:

* Loyola-Chicago is 5-0 ATS in its last five neutral site games.
* Under is 8-0 in Loyola-Chicago's last eight games following a straight up win.
* Under is 7-0 in Loyola-Chicago's last seven neutral site games.
* Under is 6-1 in Kansas State's last seven neutral site games.

CONSENSUS: Consensus data is showing 54 percent of bettors taking the favorites from Kansas State, while 53 percent of totals wagers are on the Over.

 

[Cnotes53]

Chalk time: Blue bloods Kansas, 'Nova, Duke interrupt upsets
March 24, 2018

We interrupt this March for underdogs with a reality check from some of college basketball's blue bloods.

Kansas, Villanova and Duke are still alive in the NCAA Tournament, ready to tilt the bracket back toward the favorites.

Call Friday the exception to what has been an extraordinarily-maddening, upset-laden March. One that showcased three powerhouse teams, each good enough to be deemed the favorite if they reach the national title game.

In the East, top-seeded Villanova held up to fifth-seeded West Virginia's pressure. In the Midwest, top-seeded Kansas staved off fifth-seeded Clemson's late comeback attempt.

No. 2 seed Duke solved 11th-seeded Syracuse's zone to advance, too, and set up a star-powered regional final on Sunday against the Jayhawks.

Order restored in the tourney - at least for one night.

''But they say this time of year is survive and advance, and we were able to do that,'' Kansas coach Bill Self said after his team held on for a four-point win in the Midwest Region.

Villanova will face Texas Tech in the East final after the third-seeded Red Raiders beat a second-seeded Purdue team without injured starting center Isaac Haas.

The East and Midwest are on the right half of the NCAA tourney bracket, the half that hasn't had as many upsets. That foursome of teams alone would have made for an intriguing Final Four. Even Syracuse doesn't really count as a Cinderella team given its title-winning history.

Underdogs rule the left side.

No. 3 Michigan is the highest seed remaining in that half of the bracket and will face No. 9 seed Florida State in the West Region final on Saturday. In the South final, ninth-seeded Kansas State will face 11th-seeded Loyola-Chicago and its 98-year-old scouting chaplain and social media star, Sister Jean. It's the type of foursome that might meet in some early-season nonconference tournament held in Hawaii.

No favorite feels safe anymore in the NCAAs after 16th-seeded UMBC's history-making win over No. 1 overall seed Virginia last week in the first round.

''I'm not surprised there's low seeds in here. I mean, things happen,'' Ramblers coach Porter Moser said about the Elite Eight. ''They're finding ways to win, and things happen this time of year, especially when you get a group that just believes and has made some really clutch shots down the stretch.''

Kansas guard Devonte' Graham said all the upsets have helped his team to avoid overlooking opponents.

''But also we just know we've got to be focused,'' Graham added. ''If we slip up and don't come prepared, it's going to be the end of the season.''

Under pressure, Kansas passed its test, just like Villanova.

The Wildcats followed a familiar formula, shooting over Press Virginia from the 3-point arc to overcome 16 turnovers.

Villanova didn't wilt in the face of the pressure. Coach Jay Wright decided to attack it head-on.

''So when I started watching film, I just thought, man, this is a tough matchup,'' Wright said, ''and if we survive this, we're a pretty mentally tough team, and this is going to be like an old-school, grind-out game.''

Duke also did what is expected of a tourney favorite, outlasting Syracuse thanks in part to its decided talent advantage. No easy feat, by the way, after the Orange's 2-3 zone took down Michigan State in Detroit in the second round.

Perhaps feeling the heat, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski tore off his jacket and threw it to the floor in frustration after calling a timeout early in the second half to slow a Syracuse run. In time, the best player on the court, Duke's Marvin Bagley III, took over on the floor. He had 13 of his 22 points and eight of his nine rebounds in the second half.

''That was a tough game to be a part of. It came down the wire,'' Bagley said.

But for at least one more game, the higher seed prevailed, sanity ruling on a relatively ho-hum Friday.

 

[Cnotes53]

TIPPING OFF: Fittingly, low seed to get 1st Final Four spot
March 24, 2018

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) In a wild NCAA Tournament full of upsets, it's somehow appropriate that the first ticket to the Final Four will go to a No. 9 or No. 11 seed.

And the second could go to another 9-seed.

Welcome to the madder half of the March Madness bracket. The Elite Eight games Saturday in the South and West lack the Selection Sunday favorites and instead feature a surging 3-seed (Big Ten champion Michigan), two teams who were power-conference also-rans (No. 9 seeds Florida State and Kansas State) and the upstart (11-seed Loyola-Chicago).

The Wildcats and the Ramblers meet in the first regional final to wrap up the South bracket in Atlanta, then the Wolverines and Seminoles meet in Los Angeles.

Further down the line, one of those teams will end up playing for the national championship in San Antonio.

It's quite a feat considering three of those teams faced at least some bubble uncertainty in the final month of the regular season. And that was particularly true of the Ramblers (31-5) , who went 15-3 in their Missouri Valley Conference but could have easily been left out of the field of 68 had they not won the league tournament.

Yet, the Ramblers beat 6-seed Miami 64-62 in the first round on 3-pointer by Donte Ingram with 0.3 seconds left. Then came a 63-62 second-round win against third-seeded Tennessee on another late shot, this one a jumper from Clayton Custer with 3.6 seconds left. And finally, they held off No. 7 seed Nevada 69-68 in the Sweet 16, putting them a win away from the national semifinals for the first time since winning the 1963 national title .

Whew.

''I think there's a lot of parity in the game, and I love it for our league,'' Ramblers coach Porter Moser said. ''There was a lot of talk that we weren't going to get in if we didn't win the tournament, and we know in the Missouri Valley how good a league it is from top to bottom. And for us to get in here, I think it's going to spark conversation about this, and I know the committees have such a hard job.''

Now they're meeting the Wildcats in the first 9-vs-11 game in NCAA Tournament history.

Kansas State (25-11) caught a break when UMBC pulled the first 16-vs-1 upset of top overall seed Virginia, allowing the Wildcats to avoid the Cavaliers in the second round. Kansas State beat UMBC then took out Kentucky's latest crop of touted freshmen to reach its first regional final since 2010 and second since 1988.

''We know that every team right now is trying to make history,'' Kansas State guard Barry Brown Jr. said.

Here are things to know about the NCAA Tournament's second week:

ROLLING AGAIN: For the second straight season, the Wolverines (31-7) got hot late in the year to win the Big Ten Tournament title and reach the NCAA regional rounds. Now they're the closest thing to a favorite in their half of the draw.

Last year's team lost by one to Oregon in the Sweet 16, but Michigan blew out Texas A&M on Thursday to reach its third regional final in six seasons.

''I'd prefer more games like that,'' coach John Beilein said afterward. ''I don't think we'll see any more, but I'd prefer it.''

For the record, Michigan has won 12 straight and hasn't lost since falling at Northwestern on Feb. 6 .

LONG WAIT: The last time Florida State was in a regional final, two-sport point guard Charlie Ward was months away from claiming the Heisman Trophy as the Seminoles' quarterback, the Fab Five ruled at Michigan - and the Seminoles were blown out by a Rick Pitino-coached Kentucky team featuring Jamal Mashburn.

That was 1993.

The balanced Seminoles (23-11) got here by upending 1-seed Xavier then beating a 32-win Gonzaga team in the Sweet 16.

''We just don't care who plays or who scores the basket, as long as everybody's happy,'' FSU's Braian Angola said. ''We buy into the system, and that's what we're doing right now.''

SEMBLANCE OF ORDER: The other half of the bracket looks much closer to form.

In the East, Jalen Brunson was fantastic in leading top-seeded Villanova past Press, umm, West Virginia in Friday's Sweet 16. That pushed the Wildcats - the highest overall seed left - into Sunday's regional final in Boston to face third-seeded Texas Tech, which beat 2-seed Purdue.

And in the Midwest, bluebloods Kansas and Duke advanced to a chalk regional final in Omaha, Nebraska. Neither had an easy time of it, with the top-seeded Jayhawks holding off fifth-seeded Clemson while the second-seeded Blue Devils beat No. 11 seed Syracuse in an Atlantic Coast Conference-heavy doubleheader.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN: The Big 12 and ACC are leading the way entering the Elite Eight.

The Big 12 earned seven bids and has three teams (Kansas, Texas Tech and Kansas State) still alive to go with an 11-4 tournament record (.733). The ACC tied its own record with nine bids and has two left (Duke and FSU) to go with a 12-7 record (.632).

The Big East (Villanova), Big Ten (Michigan) and Missouri Valley Conference (Loyola-Chicago) have the other spots.

FAIL: ESPN says there were 17.3 million entrees into its bracket contest. And zero -as in nary a one- got the Elite Eight teams correct. So maybe you don't have to feel so badly about your up-in-smoke picks?

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, MARCH 24
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

L-IL at KSU 06:09 PM
L-IL +1.0
O 126.0

FSU at MICH 08:49 PM
MICH -4.0
U 143.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Final Four bound: No. 11 Loyola beats Kansas State 78-62
March 24, 2018

ATLANTA (AP) Porter Moser stood in front of the scarf-clad Loyola cheering section, a bit dazed but beaming from ear to ear.

''Are you kidding me! Are you kidding me,'' the Ramblers coach screamed over and over.

No kidding.

Loyola is headed to the Final Four .

An improbable NCAA Tournament took its craziest turn yet Saturday night, when Ben Richardson scored a career-high 23 points and the 11th-seeded Ramblers romped to a 78-62 victory over Kansas State to cap off a stunning run through the bracket-busting South Regional.

The Ramblers (32-5) matched the lowest-seeded team ever to reach the Final Four, joining LSU (1986), George Mason (2006) and VCU (2011). Those other three all lost in the national semifinals.

Don't bet against Loyola, which emerged from a regional that produced a staggering array of upsets. The South became the first regional in tournament history to have the top four seeds - including overall No. 1 Virginia - knocked out on the opening weekend.

In the end, it was the Ramblers cutting down the nets.

After three close calls, this one was downright easy.

''We believed that we could do something like this - do something really special- because we knew we had such good chemistry and we've got such a good group,'' said Richardson, who was named MVP of the regional. ''Everyone would say we were crazy. If we said this was going to happen, people would call us crazy, but you've just got to believe.''

No one believes more than their 98-year-old team chaplain, Sister Jean Dolores Schmidt , who led a prayer in the locker room before the game. Later, she was pushed onto the court in her wheelchair to join the celebration when it was done.

Sister Jean donned a Final Four cap - she even turned it around backward, just to show she's hip to the kids - and gave a gleeful thumbs-up.

She's already looking forward to a bigger game next weekend.

''I'm going to San Antonio,'' she said. ''That's going to be great.''

Also joining the celebration were several players from the Ramblers' 1963 national championship team , which played one of the most socially significant games in college basketball history on its way to the title. It was known as the ''Game of Change,'' matching the Ramblers and their mostly black roster against an all-white Mississippi State team at the height of the civil rights movement, setting up an even more noteworthy contest three years later. Texas Western, with five African-American starters, defeated Kentucky in the national championship game.

Les Hunter, a member of that '63 team, said these Ramblers are capable of bringing home another title.

''I think they're the best right now,'' Hunter said. ''They work so well together. They can play with anybody - anybody - right now.''

Even with a title on its resume, this Loyola performance came out of nowhere. The Ramblers had not made the tournament since 1985 until they broke the drought by winning the Missouri Valley Conference.

Then, as if benefiting from some sort of divine intervention, the Ramblers won their first three tournament games by a total of four points .

Finally, with the Final Four on the line, they turned in a thoroughly dominating performance against the ninth-seeded Wildcats (25-12), the other half of the first 9-vs.-11 matchup in tournament history.

Not the least bit intimidated, Loyola came out in attack mode right from the start against a Kansas State team that rode a stifling defense to the regional final. Moving the ball just as you'd expect from a veteran squad with two seniors and two fourth-year juniors in the starting lineup, the Ramblers kept getting open looks and bolted to a 36-24 lead.

''They jumped out to that big lead and it was tough for us to come back,'' said Xavier Sneed, who led Kansas State with 16 points. ''They kept their foot on the gas.''

The Ramblers shot 57 percent against a team that is used to shutting opponents down, including 9 of 18 from 3-point range.

Kansas State hit just 35 percent from the field - 6 of 26 from beyond the arc.

Early on the second half, Richardson swished a 3-pointer as he was fouled by Kamau Stokes , winding up flat on his back, flashing a huge smile with his arms raised above his head. He knocked down the free throw to complete the four-point play, stretching the lead to 44-29.

Loyola led by as many as 23.

''We're just a bunch of guys that everybody laughed at ... when we thought we were going to play Division I basketball,'' Clayton Custer said. ''Nobody thought we could do any of this.''

They do now.

BIG PICTURE

Loyola: While Richardson was the top scorer, the Ramblers got contributions from everyone. Marques Townes (13 points) and Donte Ingram (12) were also in double figures, while burly freshman center Cameron Krutwig came up big on the inside (nine points, seven rebounds).

Kansas State: The Wildcats were surrendering an average of 53.3 points per game in the NCAA Tournament and had not allowed more than 59 in their first three games. Loyola went by that with more than 9 minutes to go, which was more than enough to hold off the Wildcats even when things got a little sloppy in the closing minutes.

UP NEXT

Loyola: The Ramblers will meet the winner of the West Regional final between Florida State and Michigan next Saturday in San Antonio. They will try to become the lowest-seeded team to win a national championship, a distinction held by No. 8 seed Villanova in 1985.

Kansas State: After their impressive run in the tournament, the Wildcats will face heightened expectations next season. All five starters, plus ailing forward Dean Wade, can return next season.

 

[Cnotes53]

Oh Blue!: Michigan nips Florida St 58-54 to reach Final Four
March 24, 2018

LOS ANGELES (AP) Moe Wagner climbed the ladder, snipped the final strand and whipped the net around his head while thousands of Michigan's West Coast fans roared.

The Wolverines hadn't caused much disturbance to those nets at Staples Center during the West Region final. They also knew it didn't matter, because Florida State troubled the twine even less.

When shots aren't falling, Michigan knows it can rely on defense, discipline and tenacity. And by doing all the hard things, the Wolverines muscled their way to the Final Four.

Charles Matthews scored 17 points and Michigan earned its first Final Four berth since 2013 with a 58-54 victory over the Seminoles on Saturday night.

''I've never seen a team work so hard and be so connected on both ends of the floor,'' Michigan coach John Beilein said. ''Even when things do not go right on the offensive end, they were exceptional on defense.''

Wagner added 12 points as the Wolverines (32-7) earned their 13th consecutive victory by persevering through a defense-dominated second half despite shooting 4-for-22 from 3-point range.

After taking a 10-point lead on Duncan Robinson's 3-pointer with 2:26 to play, Michigan's lead dwindled to three before P.J. Savoy missed a potential tying 3-pointer for Florida State with 58 seconds left. The Wolverines held off a late charge from the Seminoles (23-12), who had already knocked off three higher-seeded opponents on their school's longest NCAA Tournament run since 1993.

''We take pride in our defense, so we believe in ourselves,'' said Michigan guard Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rakhman, who scored nine points on 3-of-9 shooting. ''We knew we had to get stops. We weren't making free throws. That comes with the game sometimes. We just had to continue to get stops.''

With tenacious defense and just enough made free throws down the stretch, Michigan hung on and advanced to San Antonio, Texas, next weekend to face the underdog heroes of Loyola-Chicago (32-5), who stunned the sport by winning the South Region.

The third-seeded Wolverines are much less of a surprise, but the achievement is no less impressive for Beilein's squad, which wore its ''Do More, Say Less'' shirts throughout the week.

Michigan let its fans do the talking: The Wolverines had a distinct home-court advantage from thousands of vocal fans packed into the lower bowl of the Lakers' and Clippers' home arena, and they seemed to need all of those cheers to survive an off shooting night.

''I felt like we were in Ann Arbor,'' Beilein said.

Phil Cofer scored 16 points for the ninth-seeded Seminoles (23-13), who couldn't match their late rally past top-seeded Xavier last week because they simply couldn't score consistently, going 7 for 30 from the field in the second half.

''Even though we were getting good stops, we couldn't get into our offensive flow because they were doing a good job defensively,'' Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton said. ''When we did get into the lane, we didn't finish our plays. The thing about Michigan's team, they are not totally defined by one particular player. They're a complete basketball team.''

Savoy trimmed the Wolverines' lead to 55-52 on a 3-pointer with 1:17 to play. With Michigan fans holding their breath, Savoy then missed a potential game-tying 3-pointer and two more 3-pointers in the final minute, including a final shot under pressure with 12 seconds left.

''They call themselves the junkyard dogs,'' Beilein said, referring to Florida State's nickname for its defense. ''Well, we're pit bulls.''

Michigan's Zavier Simpson and Robinson combined to hit three free throws in the final minute to keep Florida State at bay.

And with Michigan up by four, Florida State allowed the Wolverines to dribble out the clock without fouling again.

BIG PICTURE

Florida State: The loss ended a remarkable March for Hamilton's Seminoles, who hit their stride at the perfect time. Florida State went 9-9 in ACC play and lost in the first round of the conference tournament, but still made the NCAA field and made an impressive run.

Michigan: The Wolverines are carving their own names in their school's rich basketball history with an impressive late-season roll. After winning the Big Ten tournament, Michigan survived a rough opening weekend in Wichita before earning back-to-back wins in Los Angeles. This victory might not contribute many big plays to the highlight videos of this March run, but it's special: Michigan set its school's single-season record for wins, surpassing the 1993 and 2013 squads.

BACKING BLUE

Staples Center was largely packed with maize-and-blue fans of the Wolverines, who have a vast alumni base in California. Beilein predicted a major advantage for his team, and he was proven correct. The crowd included Rudy Tomjanovich, the Michigan alumnus and former Lakers coach, who watched in Wolverines gear near courtside.

CHARLES IN CHARGE

Matthews usually was a complementary scorer during the Big Ten season, but he has stepped into a starring role in the Tournament with three double-digit performances. He added a team-leading eight rebounds.

ROUGH START

The first half wasn't pretty, and Michigan took a 27-26 lead into the break despite failing to get a field goal in the final 5:45. Florida State managed only two points in a 10 1/2-minute stretch spanning halftime, and Michigan took a 10-point lead before Cofer led the Seminoles back into it.

UP NEXT

Florida State: The Seminoles' impressive March should turn plenty of recruits' heads as they continue to bury the myth that Florida State is a football school.

Michigan: Sister Jean awaits in San Antonio.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday?s 6-pack

Over/under totals for pitching wins this year:

16.5 Max Scherzer

15.5 Justin Verlander

14.5 David Price

13.5 Kyle Hendricks

13.5 Noah Syndergaard

12.5 Johnny Cueto

Quote of the Day
?I really think it could be a record-type thing, this could be another 10 years. Coach (Saban) is extremely healthy, he takes care of himself and you know, people are supposed to lose things as they get up there in age but he doesn?t at all. He doesn?t slow down. He drives himself ? he works harder than anyone in the building, regardless of whether it?s a 25-year-old or not. I think him stopping would only be because? by choice he wanted, not for any other reason. He ain?t going to slow down.?
Lane Kiffin, talking about Nick Saban

Sunday?s quiz
Who was the last offensive player the Jets drafted in the first round?

Saturday?s quiz
Lance Alworth, the great WR from the Chargers, was the first player from the AFL inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

Friday?s quiz
Kevin Bacon played the losing lawyer in the climactic scene of A Few Good Men.

*********************

Sunday?s List of 13: Random weekend stuff?..

13) Loyola, Chi 79, Kansas State 62? Much like #11-seeds George Mason in 2006 and VCU in 2011, who both came from the CAA, Ramblers come from the relative obscurity of the MVC to make the Final Four. No one saw this coming.

Not only has Loyola won four NCAA tourney games, they had to win the MVC tournament or they would?ve been playing in the NIT.

Ramblers didn?t have to play #2-seed Cincinnati after the Bearcats blew a 22-point lead to Nevada. #1-seed Virginia lost to a damn #16-seed, and Loyola took advantage of all that.

Loyola?s first three NCAA tournament wins were by total of four points:
? Ramblers were down 60-55 with 2:46 left in first round vs Miami.
? Loyola needed a lucky bounce on a jumper with 0:03.6 left to nip Tennessee, 63-62
? Loyola was down 20-8 early against Nevada, hung on at the end of its 69-68 win.

12) By way of comparison, two of George Mason?s four NCAA tourney wins in 2011 were by double figures- they were an underdog in three of the four games.

VCU had to win an additional play-in game, but four of their five NCAA tourney wins were by double figure margins- they were an underdog in all five of those wins.

11) A final question on the George Mason/VCU thing; does Porter Moser jump for bigger money? He?ll be in demand. Neither coach at Mason/VCU bolted right away.

In 2006, Jim Larranaga was coach at George Mason; he went 107-59 at Mason the next five years, then jumped to Miami, the ACC and a lot more money.

In 2011, Shaka Smart was VCU?s coach; he went 109-35 the next four years before going to Texas and the big $$$ of the Big X.

10) Michigan 58, Florida State 54? Seminoles went 8:00 without a basket down stretch, then made some questionable decisions on who to foul in last 1:30.

Unusual stat; in the West Region final the last 21 years, underdogs are 17-4 vs spread.

9) I love a good coincidence; USC just hired an assistant basketball coach who has two sons, both of whom are 6-10 or taller and are both in high school. Go figure.

Trojans hired Eric Mobley, an AAU coach for the last 11 years. From ESPN.com:

?His oldest son, Isaiah, is a 6-foot-10 high school junior and the No. 44-ranked prospect in the Class of 2019, while his youngest son, Evan, is 6-foot-10 and considered one of the top players in the country in the Class of 2020.?

I wonder where they?ll go to college?

8) Steph Curry is out with Grade 2 MCL sprain; he might be back for the start of the playoffs.

7) Ferris State 71, Northern State 69? Fun game to watch, for the D2 national title.

Ferris State?s president played the clarinet in the school band during this game. I?m guessing the university president at Kentucky or Duke doesn?t still play in the school band.

Ferris State?s mascot is a bulldog; I?m disappointed they?re not the Ferris Wheels.

6) Dustin Johnson hit a golf ball 489 yards Friday; seriously, he was on a 573-yard par-5 and was 84 yards from the hole for his second shot.

5) It bothers me when baseball teams shift and leave third base totally uncovered; they?re just giving up a base hit to anyone with the basic ability to bunt.

I can see doing it against powerful lefties like Bryce Harper or Freddie Freeman, but against guys who aren?t so great, to me it is just overthinking something that is fairly simple. Maybe the analytics people are trying to justify their position by micromanaging too much.

4) Apparently it costs $30 to park at A?s games this season; for their four home games with the Giants, it?ll cost $50 to park unless you say ?Go A?s!!!? at the gate. Trolling Giants? fans seems a little immature. Paying $30 to park seems a bit excessive.

3) There are rumors around that Gonzaga will be jumping from the WCC to the Mountain West as early as next season, which would give the MW an even dozen teams. Gonzaga is supposed to announce their decision in the next two weeks.

2) #1-seed Kansas is an underdog to Duke today; the previous nine #1-seeds who got points in the regional final went 2-7 SU, 3-6 against the spread.

1) Few years ago, I was at an AAU basketball tournament at Bishop Gorman HS in Las Vegas; I?m sitting in bleachers watching this game when one of the coaches takes his cellphone out while play was going on, looks at a text message, then glares at the couple sitting in front of me and says:

?If you text me again, he?ll never get in!!!!?

Can?t make stuff like that up.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday's Elite 8 Tip Sheet
March 24, 2018

Game played at TD Garden from Boston, Massachusetts

East Regional - No. 1 Villanova vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (CBS, 2:20 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Wildcats -6 ?, Total 144 ?

Tournament favorite Villanova had a very tough battle with West Virginia Friday night as the Mountaineers led early in the second half but a six-point deficit turned into a seven-point lead in a span of about four minutes to completely flip the game around. The Wildcats overcame rebounding and turnover disadvantages to win by 12 with great shooting numbers hitting 23 of 27 free throws for a big edge at the line and hitting 54 percent from 3-point range, an outrageous mark even by Villanova standards.

Villanova was the only Big East team to advance out of the opening weekend of the tournament and Gonzaga was the only Sweet 16 team that the Wildcats beat in the regular season as some scrutiny can be placed on the schedule of the Wildcats. If they can outlast another Big XII team Sunday they will be back in the Final Four for the second time in three years following the 2016 Tournament championship.

This line might be slightly inflated with a higher price than Villanova faced than versus West Virginia with Texas Tech finishing ahead of the Mountaineers in the Big XII standings. The Red Raiders haven?t posted dominant scoring numbers like Villanova and they are in the Elite 8 for the first time in program history led by a defense that ranks third nationally in defensive efficiency.

Texas Tech trailed early in the first two tournament games but after a slow start Friday night the Red Raiders pulled away from Purdue led by a great defensive showing. Unlike West Virginia, Texas Tech has strong numbers defending the 3-point shot which will be critical in this matchup. In the win over Purdue the Boilermakers made just seven 3-point shots and Texas Tech only sent Purdue to the line six times while forcing 17 turnovers against a team that like Villanova possessed a very low turnover rate.

Villanova had 16 turnovers against West Virginia, an incongruent number with the season rate for the Wildcats who have one of the lowest turnover rates in the nation. Texas Tech has good length and athleticism at every spot on the court to fit Chris Beard?s defensive scheme and the Red Raiders will need to play great defense to stay in this game as they won?t win a shooting contest with Villanova.

Texas Tech has benefitted from playing the first two tournament games in Texas in a favorable venue while drawing Purdue without Isaac Haas who was injured in the Round of 64 as the path has featured some good fortune and Texas Tech still trailed at halftime against Stephen F. Austin and Florida. The non-conference schedule for Texas Tech doesn?t grade well overall but the Red Raiders won five times against Sweet 16 teams this season with the Big XII living up to its billing with strong tournament results.

Villanova will likely continue to get heavy support even with the elevated line as the Wildcats are 25-12 ATS on the season while scoring 80 or more points in every tournament game. In the past 11 games vs. top 80 caliber competition however Villanova has three losses and two overtime wins as a lot of the dominance in the statistics was produced early in the season with a 22-1 start.

Battling some late season injuries Texas Tech entered the NCAA Tournament losing five of the final seven games as this tournament run wasn?t expected but it is worth noting that three of those losses came by three or fewer points as this isn?t going to be an easy team to pull away from. Texas Tech has the defensive profile to give Villanova problems but the nation?s top offense has certainly proven capable of shooting its way out of trouble in any matchup.

Game played at CenturyLink Center from Omaha, Nebraska

Midwest Regional - No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 2 Duke (CBS, 5:05 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Blue Devils -3 ?, Total 155 ?

In a tournament filled with upsets the Midwest Region has the top two seeds remaining for a heavyweight clash of blue blood programs Sunday to decide the final team into the Final Four. Duke and Kansas have played three times in the last decade in November but haven?t met in the tournament since 2003 with Kansas winning 69-65 in the Sweet 16 in the final season for Roy Williams with the Jayhawks.

Kansas hasn?t looked like an elite national contender this season, stunningly losing three times in Lawrence in what has generally been one of the toughest home courts in the nation. The Jayhawks were only 8-4 in Big XII play in November but they again rallied to win the Big XII title, also delivering the tournament title despite playing some of those games without Udoka Azubuike.

The Jayhawks had a bit of a battle in the 1/16 matchup with Penn trailing early and only slipping past the favorite spread in the final minute of the game. Kansas has four-point wins in the past two contests ironically losing ATS on backdoor covers including a comeback effort from Clemson Friday after Kansas led by 20 in the second half.

The season resume didn?t feature a great deal of notable wins on the non-conference schedule other than beating Kentucky but the Big XII has proven itself with four Sweet 16 teams and three Elite 8 squads, looking like the strongest conference in the nation overall. This year?s team actually has the weakest defensive efficiency ranking in 15 seasons under Bill Self but this is a great offensive team that has shot nearly 41 percent from 3-point range while featuring a very low turnover rate.

Duke turned in big early season wins over Michigan State and Florida but after starting 11-0 the Blue Devils had several surprising losses, falling to Boston College, NC State, and St. John?s. Duke still went 13-5 in ACC play but they drew one of the lighter schedules in the conference and they only won once in the ACC Tournament.

Handed a tough bracket draw with unusual travel for the program plus the expected Sweet 16 matchup with Michigan State the Blue Devils didn?t feel like a great threat to make it to San Antonio. Duke posted 176 points in the first two tournament wins however and they held off Syracuse in an expected grind on Friday night. Facing a #11 seed that likely didn?t even deserve to be in the tournament field in the Sweet 16 has meant a favorable path for Duke as this will certainly be the biggest test for a young Blue Devils squad.

Duke has improved its defense down the stretch with more zone than usual and now holding foes to just 62 points per game over the last 12 contests. Duke has unparalleled size of the remaining teams but lacks the depth and experience of the other contenders, issues that sometimes come into play in the NCAA Tournament setting depending how games get called.

Offensive rebounding is a great area of strength for Duke and they will need those second chance opportunities as Kansas has the stronger shooting profile in this matchup. Duke does have a great 3-point defense holding foes to just over 31 percent shooting from beyond the arc as Kansas will have a hard time maintaining the over 43 percent clip they have hit 3-point shots at so far in the tournament.

A popular Duke team is surprisingly 22-12 ATS this season and only one of 29 Duke wins this season came by fewer than points than the four-point margin Friday night against Syracuse. All seven Kansas losses this season came by five or more points while six of seven Duke losses came by five or fewer points.

Neither team shoots free throws particularly well as there could be some pressure-packed moments down the stretch in this contest in what could be a classic game between two storied programs and high profile coaches. The winner will be expected to draw Villanova in a heavyweight national semifinal that would be fit for a championship game.

 

[Cnotes53]

Sunday's Best Bet
March 24, 2018

Sunday Elite Eight Betting Preview

#3 Texas Tech vs. #1 Villanova

Sunday gives us the final two programs who will head to San Antonio for the Final Four next week and in a NCAA tournament full of upsets, Sunday's Elite Eight brings some level of normalcy with it. We've got a #1 vs #2 matchup between Kansas and Duke to end the day, but Sunday's action begins with #3 Texas Tech looking to knock off #1 Villanova. It's that game that I'm focusing on for Sunday as for all the hype and excitement the Duke/Kansas game should bring, it's probably a contest where you can get better value on both sides during live in-game wagering.

Villanova (-6.5); Total set at 144.5

Villanova has definitely look the part of a #1 seed, winning all three of their games by double digits so far with an average margin of victory of 20.3 points. West Virginia gave them a rough go of it for about 30 minutes, but the Wildcats were able to pull away with a huge run about midway through the 2nd half and never looked back. Now this program is looking to make it to its second Final Four in three seasons and they'd love to cap this run off with a title like they did in 2016. Can they run over a very good Texas Tech team to do so?

Without question, Texas Tech has had a harder road to get to this point, but with two of their three wins coming by double digits and an average margin of victory of 8.6 points, they definitely deserve to be here. They are a team that's allowed 66 points or fewer in each of their three games, and it will be that defense that will be tested against a Villanova team that's scored 80 or more in each of their first three games. Tech understands that the goal to have a chance is to frustrate and stifle Villanova's offense every opportunity they get, and hope they don't figure it out. It took Villanova about 30 minutes to figure out West Virginia's press and we all know what happened after they solved it, so can Tech finish what West Virginia started and go for 10 more minutes of frustrating the Wildcats scorers?

I believe that Texas Tech will be the one more likely to accomplish their goal in this one as it's their defense that should be able to make a statement here. If you listened to Villanova's post-game media talks from the West Virginia game - from both the players and head coach Jay Wright - the sentiment that continually came up was just how physical West Virginia was with them. The scoreboard may have shown that they won by double digits, but the game was much more of a grind then that and you've got to wonder if the smaller, guard-oriented team like Villanova can deal with more physicality from another Big 12 team just 48 hours later. I don't believe they can, at least not to the tune of winning by 7+ points.

Texas Tech should be able to keep up offensively with Villanova if their defense holds up well for the full 40 minutes, and keeping this game in the 60's will be the goal. A total of 144.5 with the spread as it is suggests this game would be something like 75-69 going Villanova's way. Outside of the perceived result there, that type of scoreline is something I believe Texas Tech would like their chances to win with (ie a race to 75) and I wouldn't put it past them of getting the job done. The majority of bettors aren't going to want to step in front of this train that Villanova has going right now so we could see this number climb a touch, but even at +6.5 points I see plenty of value there.

Finally, with Villanova scoring 90+ in their Sweet 16 game (this applies to Michigan as well) I thought it was important to let everyone know that over the last four NCAA tournaments, teams that have scored 80+ in a Sweet 16 win are just 4-7 SU in the Elite Eight game. Villanova did account for one of those victories back in 2016, but with just a 36% winning percentage SU for those squads over an 11-game sample size, I'm only interested in taking the points here.


Best Bet: Texas Tech +6.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Bluebloods Kansas, Duke square off
March 24, 2018

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) In a tournament defined by unpredictability, there will finally be a regional final that makes sense.

No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Duke will square off in the Midwest final Sunday for the last spot in the Final Four - and the stakes are huge even by Elite Eight standards.

Mike Krzyzewski is looking to break UCLA legend John Wooden's record of 12 Final Four appearances.

Kansas coach Bill Self, who recently joined Krzyzewski and Wooden in the Naismith Hall of Fame, is hoping to snap a two-year losing streak in regional finals and a 2-7 personal record in Elite Eights.

After scores of upsets produced some rather strange matchups elsewhere, it'll be ''Rock, Chalk, Jayhawk'' vs. Coach K and the Blue Devils in a classic finale in Omaha.

''It's great when you have two programs of this nature, this status in the history of our game play for a Final Four berth. I think it's great for the sport,'' Krzyzewski said.

As for the latest chapter in the Kansas-Duke series, the top-seeded Jayhawks (30-7) are more like a plucky underdog - at least by their high standards - while second-seeded Duke (29-7) and its cadre of ridiculously talented freshmen appear to be rounding into title-contending form. Duke is a betting favorite in the game even though it is the lower seed.

The Jayhawks have clawed their way into their third straight regional final as a No. 1 behind teamwork and a toughness that wasn't always there in the winter.

Their last two wins, over Seton Hall and Clemson, came by just 4 points apiece - but Kansas has won six straight postseason games after tearing through the Big 12 Tournament.

''It'll be a tough game. But it's going to be a fun game,'' Self said. ''We know we've got our hands full. But we like to think they have their hands full too.''

Duke cruised through to the Sweet 16, but then had to survive a furious challenge from ACC rival Syracuse and its bewildering 2-3 zone on Friday night. The young Blue Devils have flourished under the leadership of senior captain Grayson Allen, who is 12-2 in the NCAA Tournament.

''We're both here for a reason. It'll be a good one,'' Duke star Marvin Bagley III said.

Here are some of the story lines to look out for when the Blue Devils face the Jayhawks:

GRAHAM VS. GRAYSON

For all the talk about the young stars on each team, each squad is run by a star senior guard coming off a so-so game. Devonte' Graham, the Big 12 player of the year for Kansas, shot just 4 of 12 from the field in an 80-76 victory over Clemson, and Allen was just 3 of 14 on 3s in a 69-65 win over the Orange. But both Krzyzewski and Self expect their veteran stars to bounce back. ''He's the best intangibles guy we've ever had here,'' Self said of Graham.

MB3 VS. DOKE

It's a good thing that Kansas sophomore big man Udoka Azubuike is fully healthy after a strained knee ligament kept him out of the Big 12 Tournament, because Bagley promises to be a handful. Bagley had 22 points and seven rebounds against Syracuse - no small feat considering how long and athletic the Orange were. Azubuike played an NCAA Tournament-high 25 minutes against Clemson, scoring 14 points with 11 rebounds. Keeping Azubuike out of foul trouble will be crucial for Kansas.

BLUE VS. BLUE IN THE BIG DANCE

Duke and Kansas have met five previous times in the NCAA Tournament, most notably in 1991 when the Blue Devils beat the Jayhawks 72-65 for the first of two straight NCAA championships. The two teams last met in the Big Dance in the 2003 Sweet 16, when Kansas upended Duke 69-65 behind coach Roy Williams, who would leave Lawrence to take over North Carolina shortly after that season ended.

THE NUMBERS

Kansas is ranked second in all-time wins with 2,247, and Duke is fourth at 2,144. ...The Jayhawks will be making their 22nd appearance in the Elite Eight, third-most in Division I history, while Duke will play in their 21st regional final. ...The Blue Devils are 9-6 against No. 1 seeds ...Kansas clinched its third consecutive 30-win season on Friday, a few hours before Krzyzewski picked up his 1,100th career victory. ...Self is 2-5 in the Elite Eight at Kansas. But he also lost regional finals at Tulsa and Illinois before taking the KU job.

HE SAID IT

''When you start thinking about (breaking records) you can rationalize. And rationalization is one of the things that stops people from continued excellence, because they live in the past. And then they stop adapting and they stop getting hungry,'' Krzyzewski said when asked about potentially passing Wooden in Final Four appearances.

 

[Cnotes53]

Chalk time: Blue bloods Kansas, 'Nova, Duke interrupt upsets
March 24, 2018

We interrupt this March for underdogs with a reality check from some of college basketball's blue bloods.

Kansas, Villanova and Duke are still alive in the NCAA Tournament, ready to tilt the bracket back toward the favorites.

Call Friday the exception to what has been an extraordinarily-maddening, upset-laden March. One that showcased three powerhouse teams, each good enough to be deemed the favorite if they reach the national title game.

In the East, top-seeded Villanova held up to fifth-seeded West Virginia's pressure. In the Midwest, top-seeded Kansas staved off fifth-seeded Clemson's late comeback attempt.

No. 2 seed Duke solved 11th-seeded Syracuse's zone to advance, too, and set up a star-powered regional final on Sunday against the Jayhawks.

Order restored in the tourney - at least for one night.

''But they say this time of year is survive and advance, and we were able to do that,'' Kansas coach Bill Self said after his team held on for a four-point win in the Midwest Region.

Villanova will face Texas Tech in the East final after the third-seeded Red Raiders beat a second-seeded Purdue team without injured starting center Isaac Haas.

The East and Midwest are on the right half of the NCAA tourney bracket, the half that hasn't had as many upsets. That foursome of teams alone would have made for an intriguing Final Four. Even Syracuse doesn't really count as a Cinderella team given its title-winning history.

Underdogs rule the left side.

No. 3 Michigan is the highest seed remaining in that half of the bracket and will face No. 9 seed Florida State in the West Region final on Saturday. In the South final, ninth-seeded Kansas State will face 11th-seeded Loyola-Chicago and its 98-year-old scouting chaplain and social media star, Sister Jean. It's the type of foursome that might meet in some early-season nonconference tournament held in Hawaii.

No favorite feels safe anymore in the NCAAs after 16th-seeded UMBC's history-making win over No. 1 overall seed Virginia last week in the first round.

''I'm not surprised there's low seeds in here. I mean, things happen,'' Ramblers coach Porter Moser said about the Elite Eight. ''They're finding ways to win, and things happen this time of year, especially when you get a group that just believes and has made some really clutch shots down the stretch.''

Kansas guard Devonte' Graham said all the upsets have helped his team to avoid overlooking opponents.

''But also we just know we've got to be focused,'' Graham added. ''If we slip up and don't come prepared, it's going to be the end of the season.''

Under pressure, Kansas passed its test, just like Villanova.

The Wildcats followed a familiar formula, shooting over Press Virginia from the 3-point arc to overcome 16 turnovers.

Villanova didn't wilt in the face of the pressure. Coach Jay Wright decided to attack it head-on.

''So when I started watching film, I just thought, man, this is a tough matchup,'' Wright said, ''and if we survive this, we're a pretty mentally tough team, and this is going to be like an old-school, grind-out game.''

Duke also did what is expected of a tourney favorite, outlasting Syracuse thanks in part to its decided talent advantage. No easy feat, by the way, after the Orange's 2-3 zone took down Michigan State in Detroit in the second round.

Perhaps feeling the heat, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski tore off his jacket and threw it to the floor in frustration after calling a timeout early in the second half to slow a Syracuse run. In time, the best player on the court, Duke's Marvin Bagley III, took over on the floor. He had 13 of his 22 points and eight of his nine rebounds in the second half.

''That was a tough game to be a part of. It came down the wire,'' Bagley said.

But for at least one more game, the higher seed prevailed, sanity ruling on a relatively ho-hum Friday.

 

[Cnotes53]

TIPPING OFF: Fittingly, low seed to get 1st Final Four spot
March 24, 2018

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) In a wild NCAA Tournament full of upsets, it's somehow appropriate that the first ticket to the Final Four will go to a No. 9 or No. 11 seed.

And the second could go to another 9-seed.

Welcome to the madder half of the March Madness bracket. The Elite Eight games Saturday in the South and West lack the Selection Sunday favorites and instead feature a surging 3-seed (Big Ten champion Michigan), two teams who were power-conference also-rans (No. 9 seeds Florida State and Kansas State) and the upstart (11-seed Loyola-Chicago).

The Wildcats and the Ramblers meet in the first regional final to wrap up the South bracket in Atlanta, then the Wolverines and Seminoles meet in Los Angeles.

Further down the line, one of those teams will end up playing for the national championship in San Antonio.

It's quite a feat considering three of those teams faced at least some bubble uncertainty in the final month of the regular season. And that was particularly true of the Ramblers (31-5) , who went 15-3 in their Missouri Valley Conference but could have easily been left out of the field of 68 had they not won the league tournament.

Yet, the Ramblers beat 6-seed Miami 64-62 in the first round on 3-pointer by Donte Ingram with 0.3 seconds left. Then came a 63-62 second-round win against third-seeded Tennessee on another late shot, this one a jumper from Clayton Custer with 3.6 seconds left. And finally, they held off No. 7 seed Nevada 69-68 in the Sweet 16, putting them a win away from the national semifinals for the first time since winning the 1963 national title .

Whew.

''I think there's a lot of parity in the game, and I love it for our league,'' Ramblers coach Porter Moser said. ''There was a lot of talk that we weren't going to get in if we didn't win the tournament, and we know in the Missouri Valley how good a league it is from top to bottom. And for us to get in here, I think it's going to spark conversation about this, and I know the committees have such a hard job.''

Now they're meeting the Wildcats in the first 9-vs-11 game in NCAA Tournament history.

Kansas State (25-11) caught a break when UMBC pulled the first 16-vs-1 upset of top overall seed Virginia, allowing the Wildcats to avoid the Cavaliers in the second round. Kansas State beat UMBC then took out Kentucky's latest crop of touted freshmen to reach its first regional final since 2010 and second since 1988.

''We know that every team right now is trying to make history,'' Kansas State guard Barry Brown Jr. said.

Here are things to know about the NCAA Tournament's second week:

ROLLING AGAIN: For the second straight season, the Wolverines (31-7) got hot late in the year to win the Big Ten Tournament title and reach the NCAA regional rounds. Now they're the closest thing to a favorite in their half of the draw.

Last year's team lost by one to Oregon in the Sweet 16, but Michigan blew out Texas A&M on Thursday to reach its third regional final in six seasons.

''I'd prefer more games like that,'' coach John Beilein said afterward. ''I don't think we'll see any more, but I'd prefer it.''

For the record, Michigan has won 12 straight and hasn't lost since falling at Northwestern on Feb. 6 .

LONG WAIT: The last time Florida State was in a regional final, two-sport point guard Charlie Ward was months away from claiming the Heisman Trophy as the Seminoles' quarterback, the Fab Five ruled at Michigan - and the Seminoles were blown out by a Rick Pitino-coached Kentucky team featuring Jamal Mashburn.

That was 1993.

The balanced Seminoles (23-11) got here by upending 1-seed Xavier then beating a 32-win Gonzaga team in the Sweet 16.

''We just don't care who plays or who scores the basket, as long as everybody's happy,'' FSU's Braian Angola said. ''We buy into the system, and that's what we're doing right now.''

SEMBLANCE OF ORDER: The other half of the bracket looks much closer to form.

In the East, Jalen Brunson was fantastic in leading top-seeded Villanova past Press, umm, West Virginia in Friday's Sweet 16. That pushed the Wildcats - the highest overall seed left - into Sunday's regional final in Boston to face third-seeded Texas Tech, which beat 2-seed Purdue.

And in the Midwest, bluebloods Kansas and Duke advanced to a chalk regional final in Omaha, Nebraska. Neither had an easy time of it, with the top-seeded Jayhawks holding off fifth-seeded Clemson while the second-seeded Blue Devils beat No. 11 seed Syracuse in an Atlantic Coast Conference-heavy doubleheader.

CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN: The Big 12 and ACC are leading the way entering the Elite Eight.

The Big 12 earned seven bids and has three teams (Kansas, Texas Tech and Kansas State) still alive to go with an 11-4 tournament record (.733). The ACC tied its own record with nine bids and has two left (Duke and FSU) to go with a 12-7 record (.632).

The Big East (Villanova), Big Ten (Michigan) and Missouri Valley Conference (Loyola-Chicago) have the other spots.

FAIL: ESPN says there were 17.3 million entrees into its bracket contest. And zero -as in nary a one- got the Elite Eight teams correct. So maybe you don't have to feel so badly about your up-in-smoke picks?