College Ball Week #12

[Mr. Poon]

YTD Record: 35-37 for -0.92 units

Florida -125 (@ Kentucky) for 3 units ? The Gators are definitely reeling a little for a team that was suppose to be the cream of the crop in the entire nation this year. They only have a 12-9 conference mark, losing 3 of their last 5 series and only recording a sweep against struggling Vandy back in mid-March. Kentucky is a good team that keeps surprising despite their questionable starting pitching. Somehow they remained as high as #3 in the polls despite going 1-3 last week including a series loss to Vandy. Kentucky has definitely been the better offensive team as of late, but its hard to ignore the potential that runs from top to bottom of the Gators lineup. Florida is the better defensive team and while Kentucky has a pretty good pen that keeps them in games and consistently bails out their starters, Florida?s bullpen depth and quality really can?t be matched. As for starting pitching, big edge goes to the Gators. Kentucky sends out their #1 guy Taylor Rodgers (4.84 ERA, 1.42 WHIP. 310 OBA and 62 K?s in 61. 1 IP). Of note is Rodgers stats against better competition, his conference only line is 5.21 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .342 OBA and 29 K?s in 38 IP via 7 starts. He has a 1-2 record in those 7 starts and simply he has given up a ton of hits in those outings as noted by the high OBA. That is going to hurt him tonight against Florida. Gators counter with Hudson Randall (3.46 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .261 OBA and 42 K?s in 52 IP. Randall?s conference only stats are just as good as his overall season #?s (3.29 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, .278 OBA and 25 K?s in 25.1 IP). Randall has only made 5 conference starts as he sat out two weekends after having a rough outing vs. Ole Miss. He?s pitched the last two weekends including a good outing last weekend vs. Arky (6 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 ER, 3 K?s). Randall?s control is one of his biggest edge, he?s had only 5 BB all season! Kentucky is a free swinging club so great command will be a big advantage tonight. All of that leads to my biggest play this season.

 

[jbly99]

Florida got me pretty good on Sat/Sun...i even got pretty good lines both days. For some reason 5dimes hasnt released a line...finally decided to start up a chat and after having to tell them there is a game today and that betus has the line out they inform me they will now put out a line but it wont be until 730...wtf?

 

[shawn555]

Florida got me pretty good on Sat/Sun...i even got pretty good lines both days. For some reason 5dimes hasnt released a line...finally decided to start up a chat and after having to tell them there is a game today and that betus has the line out they inform me they will now put out a line but it wont be until 730...wtf?

Line is up now -155

 

[jbly99]

after speaking to a manager they finally told me they would put the game up in 5 minutes..was able to get on at -130 and -160 due to the limit rules there

 

[Mr. Poon]

still -125 at betus.

 

[jbly99]

Im almost positive 5dimes changes the line on college baseball games once any max bet is placed...no rhyme or reason to the amount they let you bet either...most days they let you bet enought to win $100 on favorites and risk $100 on dogs...sometimes its only $50...then there are times like last saturday where it was $250. Does Betus have any limits on there games?

 

[Mr. Poon]

Im almost positive 5dimes changes the line on college baseball games once any max bet is placed...no rhyme or reason to the amount they let you bet either...most days they let you bet enought to win $100 on favorites and risk $100 on dogs...sometimes its only $50...then there are times like last saturday where it was $250. Does Betus have any limits on there games?

it's at their discretion, and they fluctuate it Sometimes they have it at $100, sometimes $500 and sometimes they will cap it at a ridiculously low amount if you have been winning.

 

[Mr. Poon]

1-0 last night as Florida won 4-3. For today:

S. Carolina -105 (@ Arky) for 1 unit ? two pretty evenly matched teams, but I like the experience of Gamecocks starter Michael Roth over Arkansas? Sophomore Ryan Stanek.

Tempted by a small play on Oregon, but will wait to see if the dog price increases at all.

 

[jbly99]

Im on Stanford -160...waiting for them to release Purdue/UCLA line.

 

[Mr. Poon]

That's a good price on Stanford. Oregon went down to +110 from the +140 I saw it at earlier, will probably stay away.

Purdue and UCLA don't play until tomorrow, and will be doing 2 games, and then 1 on Sunday.

 

[jbly99]

yah...luckily im in a position to see the lines right when the get released...as soon as i jumped on stanford -160 5 dimes raised it to -210 a minute later.

I knew they were playing this wknd...didnt realize it was a double header on sat...i like UCLA in the openning game...Mr. Poon, have u had a chance to watch purdue at all this season?

 

[Mr. Poon]

I have seen them once on TV (vs. Nebraska) and twice in person (vs. Northwestern and vs. Illinois-Chicago). They are a solid team and the best the Big Ten has offered up in recent memory. I?m not talking about a team like Illinois or Minnesota the last couple of years trying to pull off an upset in a regional, they should be in the second weekend of the post-season. I don?t think they are an Omaha-caliber club, but you never know based on brackets and where upsets may occur.

They don?t hit for power and their defense is questionable, but they have a lot of positives. Their top 2 starting pitchers are good and will keep them in any game. Their #3 and #4 starters are questionable but not terrible and they have a decent bullpen. They hit over .300 as a team on the season and are very disciplined at the plate. They have averaged only 3.4 strikeouts per game during Big Ten play.

An X-factor is that being a north school, they played basically the first two months of the season on the road. That could help as they are going to be away from home even if they ?host? a regional. They were suppose to have a new facility/stadium built for this season, but it is well behind schedule and now that that they are projected as at least a regional host, they are scrambling. They are looking at various minor league stadiums around Indiana or perhaps having to have it at Indiana State. A big embarrassment for them in what could be a banner year for the program.

As for the series against UCLA, the Bruins are reeling a little losing their last 2 weekend series, so the Boilers have a chance to make a big statement. I like UCLA?s starting pitching as it is a bit underrated, but those guys haven?t been consistent and are just likely to have a blow up as much as they are a big game. Will be interesting to see the lines on those games and how big of a dog Purdue will be. Plutko hasn?t been crisp lately, so I may be tempted to go with the Boilers in that first game.

 

[jbly99]

Thanks for the great write up. I knew you were from up north so probably had some good insight. Just looking at pitching matchups i liked UCLA in game 1 with Plutko...after him I really dont trust UCLAs sat/sun starters. Just based on stats Breedlove looked like the better pitcher for Purdue although both look solid...neither is a strikeout pitcher though. It will be interesting to see what the line looks like tomorrow...if UCLA opens as big favorite I might be giving Purdue a harder look based on what you told me.

 

[Mr. Poon]

bad thing about college double headers is that they will only do a line on the first game.

 

[jbly99]

Yah..i hate that.

Kind of leaning to Ole Miss over LSU although I hate going against Gausman. Starkville is such a tough place to play and Bobby Whaal for ole miss has been light years better at home than on the road. Just would like to see the line a little bit lower.

 

[Mr. Poon]

I'm sure you meant Oxford.

I was looking at Miss/Wahl as well. Gausman hasn't been crisp lately. Kind of like Oregon, I was hoping people would be better on the higher ranked team and I would get a more favorable price. Just hasn't happened.

 

[Mr. Poon]

adding some small plays:

Ole Miss -120 (vs. LSU) for 1/2 unit
Oregon +125 (@ Zona) for 1/2 unit
Florida -105 (@ Kent) for 1/2 unit

 

[jbly99]

had a feeling you might jump on Ole miss when i saw they dipped to -120...i was gonna try and wait to see if i could get more value but they pushed it to -160 after your bet. If i can get it back around -120/130 ill be on it with you.

Agree with you on Florida but prolly gonna sit it out. As much as i like that Oregon team I played Arizona and Heyer -140 earlier in the day.

 

[Mr. Poon]

jbly - feel free to get my email from Jack or IE. I could get in touch with you so that I can ping prior to placing, and I guess you could do the same. May benefit since we are often on the same side.

 

[jbly99]

I was able to get on ole miss at -120 when line dropped back down. I will do that