college bowl plays & info....

[AR182]

bowl play#7....

under 55 wyom / fresno st....

wyoming has a terrible offense....they rank around the bottom in all offensive categories nationwide.....on the other side of the ball fresno st's weakness is rushing defense....

on defense, wyoming allows a little over 21 ppg on the road & after hearing about how they don't belong in a bowl game, i think that the wyoming defense will play inspired ball....

play under - any team against the total (both teams apply) - in a bowl game, in a non-conference game between two teams from second tier division 1-a conferences.....

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....34-8....81%....

the average total posted in these games was....55.9....the average total points scoreed in these games was....45.3....the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 26....65% of all games.....


good luck....

 

[THE KOD]

thanks spartan....appreciate it....

btw....what do you think about the recent yanks trade ?


bowl play#6....

fla.-9(130)....

i just made this play with the anticipation of the line possibly moving up because of kelly going to nd....& then taking the other side....but also may decide to keep the play because i think fla. may blow cin out....will pay close attention in reading about fla. attitude towards this game....


good luck....

...........................................................

I tell you one thing. I learned a hard lesson when Florida played Michigan in the bowl game with Chad Henne as QB.

Florida didnt give two shits about winning that game. Chad Henne passed up and down the field until I got seasick.

whats to say that dont happen again.

they have no incentive to win that game. They are not going to be Nat champs. They got a ton of people leaving for draft.

Cinncinatti might be some motivated SOB trying to win for the replacement coach if they like him

any time spent should be to find out if the replacement coach is a viable candidate to be the future coach of Cin

 

[baby johnson]

agree that cincy will keep up w fla

 

[joefrog91]

thanks hawk....appreciate it....


bowl play#3....

3*oregon st....ml....

like butch davis, the osu coach riley is another favorite of mine who seems to have his team ready for bowl season as his teams are 5-0 su & 4-1ats in their last 5 bowl games....on the other hand this is byu's 5 straight trip to vegas & i wonder how motivated they are to be in the same bowl game over & over again....

i use a stat site to get info & these are the 3 highest rated trends for this game....

oregon st. is 10-2 against the money line vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse over the last 3 seasons....the average score was osu 34.6, opponent 22.5....

oregon st. is 10-1 against the money line after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons....the average score was osu 30.2, opponent 16.5....

oregon st. is 13-3 against the money line after playing 3 straight conference games over the last 3seasons....the average score was osu 30.1, opponent 21.9....


good luck....

I know the Las Vegas Bowl is supposed to get the MWC champion. But, it has now turned into the destination of the second place team. Utah would have taken just as many fans as BYU, so I have no clue why they didn't select the Utes. BYU won't be motivated to win this game.

 

[AR182]

I know the Las Vegas Bowl is supposed to get the MWC champion. But, it has now turned into the destination of the second place team. Utah would have taken just as many fans as BYU, so I have no clue why they didn't select the Utes. BYU won't be motivated to win this game.

joe....

how do you think your team will do vs boise ?

 

[AR182]

...........................................................

I tell you one thing. I learned a hard lesson when Florida played Michigan in the bowl game with Chad Henne as QB.

Florida didnt give two shits about winning that game. Chad Henne passed up and down the field until I got seasick.

whats to say that dont happen again.

they have no incentive to win that game. They are not going to be Nat champs. They got a ton of people leaving for draft.

Cinncinatti might be some motivated SOB trying to win for the replacement coach if they like him

any time spent should be to find out if the replacement coach is a viable candidate to be the future coach of Cin

you may be right scott....that is why i mentioned that i may play the other side....i will try to read everything that i can about fla's attitude about the game....i think that if they will be into the game they then will soundly beat cin.....

thanks for your post....

 

[Bucknut1]

Wannstedt vs Davis ...Love the NC play. Great stuff as always, AR. Thx and GL.
:mj06:

 

[AR182]

thanks bucknut....appreciate it....& thanks for your positive posts all year....:toast:

bowl play#8....

under 47(120) ucla / temple....

ucla is 8-0 under when playing against a team with a winning % > 75% over the last 3 seasons....the
average score was ucla 15.3, opponent 20.3....

play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (both teams apply) - in a game involving two average passing teams (6.4-7.5 pya), in non-conference games....

over the last 5 seasons the record for this system is....40-12....76.9%....

the average total posted in these games was....46.4....the average total points scored in these games was....42.5....the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 32....64% of all games.....


good luck....

 

[AR182]

bowl play#9....

calif....ml (150)....

the line on this game is calif.-3 but i feel more comfortable playing calif. on the moneyline....

play against - all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (utah) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, with a winning record on the season....

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....28-8....77.8%....

the average line posted in these games was.... team favored by 0.4....the average score in these games was....team 29.8, opponent (utah) 20.2....


good luck....

 

[TON]

AR182

AR182

Do you know when this was from ( year ? ). Am really interested in this stat.


VI. Thou shalt recognize negative momentum.

Teams that go to Bowl games have generally had pretty good seasons. It can be argued that a 6-5 season is hardly 'pretty good' but such teams nevertheless are needed to fill Bowl berths. But what about teams that have ended their 'good' regular seasons on a sour note? Or two? Or more? Consider teams that have lost two or more consecutive games at the end of the regular season. Our research revealed some very interesting results that differed depending upon whether the team with that negative momentum was made the favorite or the underdog in their Bowl game.

It can be argued that a team that has lost two or more games can look at its Bowl game in one of two ways - either it's a chance to end the season on a positive note and make amends for a disappointing finish to what had been a very good season (after all, even a 6-5 team was 6-3 or better before their end of season losing streak). Or, such a team might not be interested in continuing what had been a promising season but which had turned sour down the stretch. Often such a team that is made the Underdog in this situation is a team that had overachieved during the regular season and looks upon this Bowl game as a reward and chance to show they really are an improved team. A Favorite in this spot is more apt to be a team that had higher aspirations but whose late season collapse relegated that team to a much lesser Bowl than had looked likely before the losing streak set in. The results over the past couple of decades seem to support these contentions.

Favorites entering their Bowl game off of two or more consecutive losses are a paltry 5-14 Against the Spread over the past 20+ years. That's just 26% ATS. Underdogs have fared better, although they've not excelled. Underdogs off of two or more straight losses have gone 20-15 ATS (57%) over the past 20+ years.

For the current Bowl season note that only one favorites has lost two or more consecutive games to end the regular season: Fresno State and would qualify as 'Play Against' under this theory. These Underdogs have lost two or more straight games to end the regular season: UTEP, Colorado, Virginia, South Florida, and Alabama. Those five would be teams that have historically fared well when playing 'on' in their Bowl game. With six teams having lost two or more games prior to their Bowl game this season has the greatest number of Bowl teams with negative momentum in more than twenty years!

 

[AR182]

sorry ton but i don't know what year that's from....maybe somebody else will know & if i happen to come upon the answer i will post it....

 

[TON]

Thanks, interesting angle.

4 plays this year

N. Carolina
Kentucky
Northwestern
No. Illinois

 

[AR182]

i decided to flat bet all of my plays this bowl season....so all plays are 2*....

bowl play#10....

i may be out of my element but i am making my first over play in college football this year & my 2nd over in all of football (won the other one)....

over 52(120) navy / missouri....

since the missouri qb (gabbert), has healed from an earlier season ankle injury,missouri has scored at least 32 points & passed for at least 400 yds. in each of their last 5 games (500+in the last 2) & in addition he has at least 2 td passes in 8 of their games....the wide receiver,alexander has had 8 100+ yd games, including an amazing 200+ in 3 of the last 4 games....on the other side of the ball, the navy pass defense ranks #73 in the nation, but allowd 452 yds to notre dame & 366 to hawaii, the 2 strongest passing offenses they faced this year....

we know about navy's rushing attack, but their qb, dobbs has a strong arm & some capable receivers who can make big plays & think that navy will have chances to make big plays downfield....while over the last 4 games the missouri pass defense has been very suspect allowing an average of 356 ypg, 70% completion with a 9/4 td /int ratio....

missouri is 7-0 over in road games after gaining 450or more total yards in 2 consecutive games over the last 3 seasons....the average score was missouri 39.0, opponent 38.3....

play over - any team against the total (missouri) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (330 to 390 ypg), after gaining 525 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games....

since 1992 the record for this system is....27-3....90%....

the average total posted in these games was....63.6....the average total points scored in these games was....73.8....

the number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 19....61.3% of all games.....

over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....12-1....92%....


good luck....

 

[Who's On First]

Favorites entering their Bowl game off of two or more consecutive losses are a paltry 5-14 Against the Spread over the past 20+ years. That's just 26% ATS. Underdogs have fared better, although they've not excelled. Underdogs off of two or more straight losses have gone 20-15 ATS (57%) over the past 20+ years.

For the current Bowl season note that only one favorites has lost two or more consecutive games to end the regular season: Fresno State and would qualify as 'Play Against' under this theory. These Underdogs have lost two or more straight games to end the regular season: UTEP, Colorado, Virginia, South Florida, and Alabama. Those five would be teams that have historically fared well when playing 'on' in their Bowl game. With six teams having lost two or more games prior to their Bowl game this season has the greatest number of Bowl teams with negative momentum in more than twenty years!



Pitt falls into this too

 

[AR182]

1st bowl play....

3* tcu-6.5(120)....

playing this now because i think the line may go up....

some quick thoughts....

rematch from last season....had tcu last year on the moneyline & although tcu out yarded boise (472-250) by quite a bit, they only won by 1 point....think it will be a lot different this year because tcu can score & feel the frogs will be out to make a statement in this game....

tcu has played a tougher schedule than boise & have given up an average of 11.7 ppoints per game on the road while boise allows 22.3 ppg on the road....

wasn't impressed with boise last year & again not this year & if fresno, lou tech, & nevada can all score in the 30's this season against boise, i don't see any reason why tcu can't....

may have some more info later on for this game....

here are a few more comments about this game....

while boise has the #1 scoring offense (44 ppg) in the nation,it was against a weak schedule & haven't faced a dominating defense like tcu has that is led by de jerry hughes....this year tcu has the nation's #1 defense in total yards allowed, they are # 4 in pass defense, & #2 in rush defense....

as i mentioned in my previous post that unlike past years, tcu can score this year as they averaged about 40 ppg & they feature a balanced offense as they average 256 ypg on the ground & 217 yds. through the air....they completely dominated byu 38-7 & utah 55-28 & had a solid road win at clemson in which they held them to a little over 300 total yards....

while boise has a solid pass defense, their run defense is ranked #49 against a sub-par schedule....their top 3 wac opponents, nevada, fresno, & idaho rushed for a combined 771 yds. at about 6 ypc....

i think tcu is as good as bama, texas, & tcu & think they will make a statement in this game & expose boise as just a good team....

good luck....

 

[AR182]

bowl play#4....

3*arkansas-7(120)....

i'll have more of a writeup later on but the difference in strength of schedule is overwhelmingly in arkansas favor....

unlike past years, anytime e.carolina faced a higher level of competition this year they struggled.... they lost by 15 to w. virginia, 14 to n. carolina, & 13 to v. tech & against these 3 teams, e.c. averaged 3.39 ypc on the ground & 4.3 yppp through the air & averaged only 254 in total offense....their qb, pinkney has never developed into an effective passer & their running attack ranks # 6 in the 12 team c-usa conference....& while i think that e.c. will have some success against the arkansas defense, i think the ark. qb, mallet will be able to carve up the mediocre ec 2ndary & since ark. averaged 5 ypc against teams like fla, auburn, & lsu, i think they will have the size advantage at the line of scrimmage & be able to do the same against e.c....

finally since ark. went toe-2-toe against fla. & lsu & had blow-out wins over so. carolina, texas a & m, auburn, & miss. st, they should be able to handle e. carolina without a problem....

good luck....

 

[c20916]

bowl play#9....

calif....ml (150)....

the line on this game is calif.-3 but i feel more comfortable playing calif. on the moneyline....

play against - all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (utah) - off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog, with a winning record on the season....

over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....28-8....77.8%....

the average line posted in these games was.... team favored by 0.4....the average score in these games was....team 29.8, opponent (utah) 20.2....


good luck....

Just read Jahvid Best won't be playing in this game, not sure if that changes your play at all.

 

[AR182]

Just read Jahvid Best won't be playing in this game, not sure if that changes your play at all.

hey c2....although i would like for best to play, i am not worried about the calif. running attack....for the last 3 games the feature back was vereen who averaged 148 ypg at 5 ypc....

 

[AR182]

bowl play#11....

boston college+10(120)....

usc did not finish #1 in the pac-10 for first time since 2001, they also fell out of the top 25, & failed to win 10 games for the first time since carroll's 1st year....so imo their motivation is in question for this game....

although they have had trouble scoring on the road this year, the bc team is typical of past teams....they run the ball well (harris has gained over 100 yds. rushing in 7 games this year), are effective against the run (allow 3 ypc), & are # 32 in the nation in pass defense....

the best word to describe usc this year is....inconsistency....some of it has been because the play of their freshman qb & some of it is because of injuries at running back & wide receiver....during the first 5 games of the season the usc defense allowed 9 ppg & 239 ypg, but from game #6 on they allowed 29 ppg & 417 ypg....

play against - favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (usc) - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite of 6 or more, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team....

since 1992 the record for this system is....43-17....71.7%....

the average line posted in these games was.... opponent favored by 6.2....the average score in these games was....team 24.6, opponent 26.3....

rose, rose, rose, rose, orange, rose, orange are the last 7 bowl games that usc has played in....i wonder how motivated they will be by playing in the emerald bowl the day after christmas....i am betting not to motivated....


good luck....

 

[frogster]

Great info,I like many of your picks, we disagree on a few. Good luck to you. I don't know where you get the time to write all this up. It is really great. I have listed my picks in the forum, check them out when you have time.