college plays for 10/31-11/5.....

A

AR182

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114-73-2.......+38.93*


smu-4(130)....

first let me say that i wouldn't be playing this game if was on a saturday....i also think this line is off....imo smu should be favored by 6-7 points. so i'm a little suspicious of why the line is off. but i do like smu for a few reasons....

this is an important game for them if they want to be eligible for a bowl game this year.

the smu qb is completing around 70% of his passes with 19 tds & 3 ints....they are averaging about 27 points per game (34 points per game in their last 6 games).....close to 200 yds per game in the air & about 130 yds. per game on the ground. although their defense is allowing 24 points per game , their run defense is allowing only 80 yds. per game.their weakness on defense is their pass defense where they are allowing close to 280 yds. per game.

i'm not so sure that uab can take advantage of the smu shaky pass defense. for the season their qb has thrown 8 tds & 6 ints. & is passing for an average of 150 yds. per game.....uab is averaging only 3.8 ypc on the ground.....& scoring a little less than 20 points per game. on defense uab is giving up an average of about 23 points per game, a little less than 200 yds. per game in the air & about 155 yds. per game on the ground, which is a lot.

on the ground & the line of scrimmage is where i think that smu will be able to win this game. i think smu will be able to run the ball & i think uab will have problems running the ball. and i don't think that the uab qb is good enough to take advantage of smu's defensive weakness.



good luck.
 
Dice34

Dice34

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good read AR.....

just one thing i want to note.....the yankees havent won the world series since you signed up and with that avatar, you may want to think about changing it before next season.......the curse of AR perhaps:shrug:

what do u think about this total? I was thinking a 24-17 type game, but if UAB can't run like you pointed out, it could mean big plays in both directions.....
 
Cie

Cie

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Very impressive record Al. But great record aside, you are a huge asset to the forum. Thanks and good luck the rest of the way:weed:
 
C

ctownguy

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Hey Al,

Where are the emails giving me your picks before you put them on the site, so I can get a leg up on everyone else.

Man, thought we were pals since Vegas. Only goes to show out of sight out of mind.:mj07:

Seriously, heelva week. I'm starting to believe your really are a guru.

Oh master can I be put on the waiting list to sit at your table at the SB party. My wife will be with me so that will be a plus, but will it be enough to get me in. :scared
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys...appreciate the nice words.

hey ctown...

all you have to do is flash that bracelet & they will let you sit anyplace you want. as far as superbowl weekend i would like to get together with you & the misses for either dinner or cocktails before the big shindig....but i'll e-mail you when it gets closer to februrary.

dice...

that avatar i have is more for nyc than the yankees...i miss it. as far as the yankees are concerned i think they are finally learning that an allstar at every position doesn't guarantee a title.
 
A

AR182

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i feel that i got lucky last night so i'll push my luck a little further with this play that i got from somebody else....


under 30.5 1st half boise/fresno.......


play under - road teams where the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 (fresno st.) - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in november games.

last 10 seasons the ats record is ....23-3.....88.5%

the average first half total posted in these games was: 29.6......the average first half score in these games was: team 9.9, opponent 14.4 (total first half points scored = 24.3)

the situation's record this season is: 0-0.

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...8-0.

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is...15-2.


play under - road teams where the first half total is between 28.5 and 31.5 (fresno st.) - after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, in weeks 10 through 13.

last 10 seasons the ats record is...22-3.....88%

the average first half total posted in these games was: 29.6....the average first half score in these games was: team 9.9, opponent 14.4 (total first half points scored = 24.3)

the situation's record this season is: (0-0).

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...8-0.

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is....14-2.


good luck.
 
A

AR182

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sorry guys we didn't cash with this play....i think i'm finished with half time bets....it seems that they always fall short for me.
 
T

thom24ad

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AR182 said:
sorry guys we didn't cash with this play....i think i'm finished with half time bets....it seems that they always fall short for me.
Click to expand...

:box2: its alright AR...1H plays are tough to hit...you'll get them tomorrow, right?...I hope your playing because I would like to read your breakdown of that one...great record by the way...:toast:
 
B

blgstocks

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Dont sweat it- I will take a 90% hit rate any day of the week. If it takes a fluke fresno st run back to beat me so be it

I would definitely appreciate if you would post those high percentage plays, even if you dont play them because I would.

Thanks again for your hard work AR
 
A

AR182

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stocks...

i haven't been watching the game. i just saw the box score at the cnn/si website & noticed the kickoff return by fresno st.....unbelievable.

i guess nothing is guaranteed...
 
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G

gman2

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kickoff return killed you in the 1h under
kickoff return/interception return combo killed the under 58 im sitting on. last two unders for me have seen 4 non-offensive touchdowns scored. just gotta shake your head sometimes. very frustrating. gl this weekend man.
 
J

Jabberwocky

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Thanks for the post AR, still think it was a good angle. As stated, that runback gave me a bad feeling and it ended up hosing the under. Gl the rest of the weekend. I myself will be gambling on the Cards tmrw.
 
J

Junior44

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Was just wondering if you could post your "plays made at the beginning of the week" RIGHT NOW so the rest of the madjack's forum could capitalize on the lines that you post on Friday/Saturday that were available 5-6 days ago. I mention this because these lines never seem to move against you and it would be nice to post these plays "at the beginning of the week" so we all could get down on these juicy numbers.

PS. Feel free to post the lines that move against you on Saturday as late as possible.

Thanks and G/L
 
A

AR182

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Junior44 said:
Was just wondering if you could post your "plays made at the beginning of the week" RIGHT NOW so the rest of the madjack's forum could capitalize on the lines that you post on Friday/Saturday that were available 5-6 days ago. I mention this because these lines never seem to move against you and it would be nice to post these plays "at the beginning of the week" so we all could get down on these juicy numbers.

PS. Feel free to post the lines that move against you on Saturday as late as possible.

Thanks and G/L
Click to expand...


are you accusing me of lying ?

i'll post my plays when it's convenient for me, not you...it's pretty simple....if you don't like my posting style, don't read my posts.....
 
T

thom24ad

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Sep 29, 2005
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Junior44 said:
Was just wondering if you could post your "plays made at the beginning of the week" RIGHT NOW so the rest of the madjack's forum could capitalize on the lines that you post on Friday/Saturday that were available 5-6 days ago. I mention this because these lines never seem to move against you and it would be nice to post these plays "at the beginning of the week" so we all could get down on these juicy numbers.

PS. Feel free to post the lines that move against you on Saturday as late as possible.

Thanks and G/L
Click to expand...
:shrug:
what a dik...cap your own plays then buddy...
 
J

Junior44

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nope, not accusing you of lying at all. Here is my point. In almost every single one of your threads (on about Fri night/Sat morning) one of your posts resembles the following:

Alabama -14 (got this line early on Monday)

I am suggesting to you that you should either a)post the play when you get it on Monday or b) post the line that is available to the members of this forum when you post said play. I could be wrong, but i don't see how it helps the forum posting a line that hasn't been available for days. You seem to me like you are a pretty decent capper who doesn't need to post bad lines on friday/saturday that are no longer available. To me, helping the members of this forum is what posting is all about. I apologize if i came across as accusational, wasn't my intention.

Best of luck to you this weekend and the rest of the season.
 
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