college plays & info for 8/30-9/3....

AR182

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This is merely my humble opinion, but I think the "look-ahead factor" means much less in week 1 than in other weeks. These teams have been beating up on each other in practice -- most if not all in ridiculous heat -- for the past month. They just want to get out there and smack someone else up.

hey bj your opinion is as good as anybody elses.

but let me ask you this question...

who do you think vt spent most of the time practicing for in the offseason....a team that they are nearly a 4 td favorite over or a team that many pundits pick to play in the championship game ?

i can give other examples of the teams that i posted above...but you get my point.

however it doesn't mean i'm right or you're right...it's just our opinions..which imo makes for interesting conversation.

good luck this year...
 

AR182

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adding another under...

u 44(120) army/akron...

akron returns 8 starters to a defense that was pretty solid last year, allowing 22.6 ppg. they also lost their starting qb from last year & the 2 that are fighting for the starting job this year only have combined to throw 1 pass in a game.

army has 13 starters back from last year's team & will be learning a new offensive system under their new coach.also army's defensive front line is supposed to be pretty good & may be able to control things when akron has the ball.

a trend supporting this play...

play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (akron) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a losing record last season.

ats record is 60-27 over the last 10 seasons....69%

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...31-12...72%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is...38-19.....66%

good luck
 

AR182

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here is an e-mail that i received....thought that some might find it helpful.

here is an e-mail that i received....thought that some might find it helpful.

Big 12 News and Notes


Though the Texas wide receiver position is banged up, the Longhorns will be fine offensively. But their pass defense was terrible last year, despite having their three senior starters all get drafted. In their last seven games, the Longhorns allowed 15 TD passes, averaging 32 yards apiece. A team with the speed and talent of Texas shouldn?t get burned like that. With Gene Chizik gone to the head job at Iowa State, the new co-defensive coordinator is Larry Mac Duff, the architect of the ?Desert Swarm? defenses at Arizona in the early 90?s. He?ll work with Duane Akina, who was co-DC with Chizik and works with the defensive backs.

Having a redshirt quarterback under center worked swimmingly for their archrival last year. And now, Oklahoma?s giving it a try. Sam Bradford is highly thought of, has spectacular talent around him, and after a Week 1 friendly against North Texas, lines up against the formerly fierce Miami Hurricanes in Week 2. A lot of people are back from a team that won this conference despite having to use a quarterback who was a wide receiver until last summer?s suspensions.

Guy Morriss is doing a great job at Baylor. He really is. His 8-25 conference mark is positively sparkling compared to the 4-52 mark the Bears had in Big 12 play when he took the job. But it is going to be tough in Waco this fall. The Bears are potentially entering their opener at TCU (yikes) with a redshirt freshman starting QB who was 5th string when fall practice started. With strong quarterback play unlikely, it will be tough to improve too much on last season?s putrid 2.1 yards per rush. The defense will be better, but they allowed 55 or more in 3 of their last 5 games last fall. Despite all this, Baylor was 3-5 in the Big 12 last fall and Morriss deserves respect for getting this team closer to respectability.

Texas Tech has only 9 starters back. Quarterback Graham Harrell has only a single returning wide receiver, but that might not be a bad thing, considering Coach Mike Leach?s distaste for those playing that position last fall. Maybe we?re too quick to judge coaches when their players misbehave. It is a good point by Mike Leach when he says that in the summer, `you're not allowed to have a lot of meetings or coach them, yet you're still ridiculously in charge of their behavior.''

Would Coach Fran?s fate have been sealed if Texas A&M hadn?t held on to beat Army in the closing desperate seconds last season? Their entire season seemed to be spent on the brink. For the Aggies the difference between 4-8 and 12-0 was a matter of inches. Other than a 10-point win over Baylor (which A&M led by 3 until a 64-yard TD run with 2:15 remaining), every A&M conference game was decided by 6 or less. It pretty much evened out for them but you see how the perception of a team can change drastically and immediately.

The inexperience of Oklahoma State?s defensive line will get a lot of play. On the front line you?ll see that there are four new starters. But that?s a bit misleading. Despite the apparent inexperience, defensive end may be a strength, as Marque Fountain and Nathan Peterson not only saw the field a good bit last year, but also combined for 12? sacks. The defensive players claim they are taking to the increased competition in practice and the more aggressive schemes of new coordinator Tim Beckman. But this unit that gave up between 24 and 36 points to every conference opponent must show their improvement on the field.

With a new coach there?s some excitement at Iowa State, where they?ve sold over 4,000 more season tickets than ever before. Believe it or not, the productive Iowa State Bret Meyer to Todd Blythe passing combination is still on campus. Meyer has started 36 straight games (getting beaten up behind subpar offensive lines) and the rangy Blythe is always a threat to go up and get any ball in the end zone. With 26 career TD receptions, Blythe is already the leader in ISU history in that category.

Nebraska?s excuse of having to implement a new system over the past few years was legit, but Bill Callahan now has his own players and the future is now for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska returns only 10 starters but their recruiting has been outstanding in recent years so those coming in have exhibited some talent. The offensive and defensive lines are both short on experience, but c?mon, this is Nebraska, where they always have fresh beef poised to fill the interior. A lot of highly ranked guys are looking to take over. As expected, Sam Keller has been named the Husker quarterback, and he completed over 59% of his passes with 25 TD?s and 10 INT?s in his time at Arizona State. The inexperience on the lines and some of the question marks (running back) would be more concerning if the Huskers were in another division. In fact, they?d have to play well to get 3rd in the southern division of this conference but the Big 12 North continues to be a less than stellar grouping.

You figure a coach?s son has to be savvy. And a 5-11 quarterback who wins the job as a redshirt freshman has to be making the right decisions. Colorado fans better hope that Cody Hawkins is a savvy, decision-maker, but in fact he was a top-notch recruit who was rated as one of the top quarterbacks in the country out of high school. Bernard Jackson, the Buffs quarterback last year, will be utilized in a ?slash? role to take advantage of his athleticism this fall.

Kansas was very close to a big year last year. The Jayhawks were 6-6 and lost twice in OT (at Toledo, at Nebraska), and blew double-digit 4th quarter leads to Texas A&M and Baylor. The schedule works for Kansas this year, as they miss Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. One of the bigger summer surprises in the Big 12 was 5-11 Todd Reesing beating out 6-3 prototype Kerry Meier. Meier has been hobbled with an undisclosed injury that cost him some practices during camp.

Missouri benefits from Kansas giving up home field advantage for their home game against Missouri to profit from a move to Arrowhead Stadium, a true neutral site. Chase Daniel is a terrific quarterback, but the Tigers must prove they aren?t the Minnesota of the Big 12. After starting 4-1, 5-2, and 6-0 the last three years, they?ve closed the regular season 1-3 both straight up and against the spread all three of those years.

Kansas State hasn?t had a great fall camp, with players leaving the program and 2nd leading returning receiver TE Rashaad Norwood getting arrested at 3:15AM for trying to break into an ex-girlfriends apartment and then after being released getting arrested at 6:15AM for doing the same exact thing. Norwood has been suspended from the program by Coach Ron Prince.
 

bjfinste

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but let me ask you this question...

who do you think vt spent most of the time practicing for in the offseason....a team that they are nearly a 4 td favorite over or a team that many pundits pick to play in the championship game ?

That's a great question that I hadn't really contemplated. I actually know some people that can tell me from experience from this angle, so I will see what they say and let me know.
 

Q-Unit

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who do you think vt spent most of the time practicing for in the offseason....a team that they are nearly a 4 td favorite over or a team that many pundits pick to play in the championship game ?

AR182, always enjoy your picks and writeups man keep up the good work!

pardon me but I just had to chime in with this, while I agree with your assessment, what is your opinion regarding "external factors" that might influence this first game?

i.e. the horrible shootings on campus back in April. Do you think the players/fans personally are just eager to get back on the field for a game that finally counts and let out all that energy and get some sort of release from that atrocious event?

thanks and GL!
 

The Cash Cow

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Sdg St O= 9, D= 4 (13 w/ no Qb)

you may be right but i don't consider wisc. a look ahead game for unlv because the week after wisc. unlv plays hawaii,which is a conference game..but who knows...:shrug: ....:142smilie

Not to nit-pick, but O'Connell is back as SDSU's QB this season. He missed 6 games early last year due to injury, but had started 18 straight until the injury, and came back to start the last three.

Also, Hawaii is not a conference game for UNLV, as UH is in the WAC and UNLV is in the MWC.

Good luck though.
 

AR182

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AR182, always enjoy your picks and writeups man keep up the good work!

pardon me but I just had to chime in with this, while I agree with your assessment, what is your opinion regarding "external factors" that might influence this first game?

i.e. the horrible shootings on campus back in April. Do you think the players/fans personally are just eager to get back on the field for a game that finally counts and let out all that energy and get some sort of release from that atrocious event?

thanks and GL!

q..

first off welcome to the forum....

you raise a good point about the vt shootings.while vt will probably be fired up for this game, i think they will keep their offensive game plan very vanilla, especially with the ec qb suspended....& i expect vt to coast to an easy win(no opinion on whether they cover or not)..
 

AR182

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Not to nit-pick, but O'Connell is back as SDSU's QB this season. He missed 6 games early last year due to injury, but had started 18 straight until the injury, and came back to start the last three.

Also, Hawaii is not a conference game for UNLV, as UH is in the WAC and UNLV is in the MWC.

Good luck though.

thanks for the corrections...i definitely don't mind being corrected.i sometimes get info from other sites & very rarely do i check for accuracy because i expect the source to do that.

i also know that unlv & hawaii are in different conferences...just a mistake on my part.

good luck.
 

AR182

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adding....

c. fla.+8.5......

first let me say that i'm a big fan of the new head coach (o'brien) of ncst. i think he'll turn around this program & mentality in a short time...but not in the very first game.

with a veteran team coming back from an injury filled year getting over a td,& with ncst facing their first conference game against this coaches former team, & o'brien's teams having a tendency for starting slow (3-7 ats in opening games),i'll take the points.

here is a trend supporting this play...

play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ucf) - in non-conference games, with 17 or more total starters returning, in the first month of the season.

ats record is 32-8 since 1992....80%

the su record of the team this system pertains to is.....22-19.

the average score in these games was...team 22.4, opponent 23.4..average point differential....-1

the number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22....56.4% of all games

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...3-1.

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is...9-1.

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is...16-4.

here is something else that i read pertaining to new head coaches with lousy teams in season openers (winning 4 or fewer games the year before)....the ats record is....30-48-5 ats.....38%.

these teams are....army, fla. in'tl., idaho, iowas st., mich. st., n.carolina, nc st., n.texas, stanford, tulane, & uab....

good luck.
 

ajoytoy

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can't say I dont agree with taking C. Fla...Pack will be lucky to get the W, let alone cover...gl this season Al

adding....

c. fla.+8.5......

first let me say that i'm a big fan of the new head coach (o'brien) of ncst. i think he'll turn around this program & mentality in a short time...but not in the very first game.

with a veteran team coming back from an injury filled year getting over a td,& with ncst facing their first conference game against this coaches former team, & o'brien's teams having a tendency for starting slow (3-7 ats in opening games),i'll take the points.

here is a trend supporting this play...

play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (ucf) - in non-conference games, with 17 or more total starters returning, in the first month of the season.

ats record is 32-8 since 1992....80%

the su record of the team this system pertains to is.....22-19.

the average score in these games was...team 22.4, opponent 23.4..average point differential....-1

the number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 22....56.4% of all games

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...3-1.

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is...9-1.

over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is...16-4.

here is something else that i read pertaining to new head coaches with lousy teams in season openers (winning 4 or fewer games the year before)....the ats record is....30-48-5 ats.....38%.

these teams are....army, fla. in'tl., idaho, iowas st., mich. st., n.carolina, nc st., n.texas, stanford, tulane, & uab....

good luck.
 

DBmeister

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GOLDEN GOPHER PLAYS

GOLDEN GOPHER PLAYS

ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE GOLDEN GOPHER PLAYS FROM ANOTHER SITE.IF THE LINE IS 25% OR MORE OF THE TOTAL ,THEN YOU PARLAY THE FAVORITE & OVER,ALSO PARLAY UNDERDOG & UNDER.THIS WORKED GREAT AT THE FIRST OF THE SEASON BUT FADED GREATLY BY THE SEASON END. WHAT IS YOUR OPINION.THANKS,DB:scared :shrug: :shrug:
 

AR182

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db...

first welcome to the forum...

if it's the same poster that i think it is, i'm familiar with gg's parlay system because i post at the same site. but i have no opinion on his method because i don't play parlays & i don't think i ever did...
 

AR182

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adding...

u 48 baylor/tcu....

a few reasons for this play...

both offenses are returning 4 players on offense from last year's team, including breaking in inexperienced qbs.

tcu is returning 7 of it's top 8 tacklers from last year's defense (12 ppg).

tcu will be facing what may be their biggest game in their history next week against texas,so i don't anticipate them showing much offensively for this game.

good luck.
 

Irish

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GL this season AR... I like a lot of your angles, hope they hit.

Cheers
Irish
 

AR182

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adding another under...

u 48 (120) ucla/stanford...

stanford is another team that is learning a new offense with only 5 starters returning from last years team, which was held to 10 points or less 9 times last year.while ucla is returning 10 starters from last year's defensive team that held usc, oregon st., & arizona st.to 9.3 ppg to close out the regular season.

ucla is also learning a new offensive system & from what i have read this year's offense is much more complicated than last year's offense, which averaged 23 ppg & their season high scoring was 31 points (against stanford & utah).with stanford returning 8 players from last year's defensive team i think that they will show some improvement from last year.

here is a trend supporting this play...

play under - all teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (stanford) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a losing record last season.

ats record is 60-27 over the last 10 seasons.....69%

the average total posted in these games was: 46

the average score in these games was...team 17.2, opponent 24.9 (total points scored = 42.2)

over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is...31-12....72%

over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is...38-19....66%

good luck.
 

Kramer

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Man I like that one AR. UCLA is beat up on offense
and they will have a hell of a defense. You just
nailed one in my opinion. :00hour
 

Mully

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nice looking card Ar... Best of luck this week and always. Might tail you on that Oregon St under as I kinda liked that one myself.... Lets' make it another profitable year!:00hour
 
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