Derby winner
- Thread starter Eddie Haskell
- Start date
Pharoah might win and he is a great horse but taking a heavy chalk in a race like this with so many things that can go against him? Not for me.
He draws a far outside post and has a speed horse directly outside of him, to the right, Upstart. He will have to hustle out of the gate and use a lot of energy early. Upstart is going to be pressuring early and likely glued to his side. I dont think he will get straight to the lead so he is likely going to get a wide trip on the 1st turn. There is speed inside and he isnt going to outrun those horses to get a spot at the rail unless he uses A LOT of energy early. He crushed his last derby prep but he faced nothing that resembles any sort of real competition. Very easy road to the Derby and he won how he should have. He also has a foot issue and wears a protective plate. A big field like this doesn't take much to have some banging around and maybe upset his foot.
But most importantly, he hasnt faced anything like this before. What is he going to do when he turns for home and theres a horse next to him that looks him in the eye? It isnt going to be a walk in the park like the Arkansas Derby, I would have to assume.
He could very well be the next Seattle Slew and compeltely crush this field, but he hasn't even ran the fastest figure in this race. There are plenty in here as fast as he is, including Upstart. Playing a huge chalk in a race like this is crazy, but if you play it and cash thats the only thing that matters I guess.
I will be trying to beat him, thats for sure.
His Arkansas Derby is impressive, and he wasn't asked, but that doesn't always mean the horse has another gear. Just because he wasn't asked doesn't always mean they can go any faster. It isnt like he was going to run a 10 second 1/8 mile.
Will be a great race. This is the best group of 3 year old horses we have seen in a very long time.
He draws a far outside post and has a speed horse directly outside of him, to the right, Upstart. He will have to hustle out of the gate and use a lot of energy early. Upstart is going to be pressuring early and likely glued to his side. I dont think he will get straight to the lead so he is likely going to get a wide trip on the 1st turn. There is speed inside and he isnt going to outrun those horses to get a spot at the rail unless he uses A LOT of energy early. He crushed his last derby prep but he faced nothing that resembles any sort of real competition. Very easy road to the Derby and he won how he should have. He also has a foot issue and wears a protective plate. A big field like this doesn't take much to have some banging around and maybe upset his foot.
But most importantly, he hasnt faced anything like this before. What is he going to do when he turns for home and theres a horse next to him that looks him in the eye? It isnt going to be a walk in the park like the Arkansas Derby, I would have to assume.
He could very well be the next Seattle Slew and compeltely crush this field, but he hasn't even ran the fastest figure in this race. There are plenty in here as fast as he is, including Upstart. Playing a huge chalk in a race like this is crazy, but if you play it and cash thats the only thing that matters I guess.
I will be trying to beat him, thats for sure.
His Arkansas Derby is impressive, and he wasn't asked, but that doesn't always mean the horse has another gear. Just because he wasn't asked doesn't always mean they can go any faster. It isnt like he was going to run a 10 second 1/8 mile.
Will be a great race. This is the best group of 3 year old horses we have seen in a very long time.
- Nov 13, 2009
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Since it is in the wrong forum spelling mistakes are magnified, just sayin'
Anyway.....we already know the horses that will come in tied for 1st.........
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?578539-141st-running-of-the-Kentucky-Derby
El Kabeir likely to scratch. Didnt make it to track yesterday, rumor is a foot bruise.
Big odds on that one and he had a real chance of getting a piece. They changed his running style last 2 preps specifically to make him more tactical for Derby. Borel couldve really made up for last years terrible ride. This horse was definitely one that could stay on late and make it into the exotics.
Zayat still has 2 in the race though, Mr Z and Pharoah. Really interesting to see what these 2 horses do. Different trainers, same owners. Mr Z has not got much of a chance to win, but he will be an early pace factor. He will go early and could likely be one that sends Pharoah very wide. If I own these horse I am telling Lukas to make sure the jockey knows to stay the hell out of the way of Pharoah.
Rumor was Ocho Ocho Ocho could possibly be a scratch as well.
Lot of enticing options in this race. Several of these would be the Derby favorite in other years.
Here is some food for thought though. If you watched Pharoahs last race, or looked at the past performances, youd see he dominated. Won by 8 lengths.
Now look at the Florida Derby. Materiality and Upstart had an absolute duel in the stretch. It was basically a match race. They cleared the rest of the field by 12.
If either Materiality or Upstart were in the Ark Derby, the FL Derby winner would be a 12 length winner and your Derby favorite. Instead, we get Pharoah at 5/2, probably even less, and Materiality 12-1 and Upstart 15-1.
Just something I find interesting.
FWIW, Materiality has looked very bad this week on the track. Very washed out in the morning and just does not look the way you would want your horse going into this race. Doesn't mean he cant just turn it all around but it looks to me like the FL Derby took a lot out of him and he might not be on top form for this one. His lack of 2 year old foundation is also a strike against him. I really liked this one before seeing him on track this week.
Could make a case for so many of these horses this year. This is definitely a Derby that doesn't come around often.
Big odds on that one and he had a real chance of getting a piece. They changed his running style last 2 preps specifically to make him more tactical for Derby. Borel couldve really made up for last years terrible ride. This horse was definitely one that could stay on late and make it into the exotics.
Zayat still has 2 in the race though, Mr Z and Pharoah. Really interesting to see what these 2 horses do. Different trainers, same owners. Mr Z has not got much of a chance to win, but he will be an early pace factor. He will go early and could likely be one that sends Pharoah very wide. If I own these horse I am telling Lukas to make sure the jockey knows to stay the hell out of the way of Pharoah.
Rumor was Ocho Ocho Ocho could possibly be a scratch as well.
Lot of enticing options in this race. Several of these would be the Derby favorite in other years.
Here is some food for thought though. If you watched Pharoahs last race, or looked at the past performances, youd see he dominated. Won by 8 lengths.
Now look at the Florida Derby. Materiality and Upstart had an absolute duel in the stretch. It was basically a match race. They cleared the rest of the field by 12.
If either Materiality or Upstart were in the Ark Derby, the FL Derby winner would be a 12 length winner and your Derby favorite. Instead, we get Pharoah at 5/2, probably even less, and Materiality 12-1 and Upstart 15-1.
Just something I find interesting.
FWIW, Materiality has looked very bad this week on the track. Very washed out in the morning and just does not look the way you would want your horse going into this race. Doesn't mean he cant just turn it all around but it looks to me like the FL Derby took a lot out of him and he might not be on top form for this one. His lack of 2 year old foundation is also a strike against him. I really liked this one before seeing him on track this week.
Could make a case for so many of these horses this year. This is definitely a Derby that doesn't come around often.
If you like Dortmund, and many do, for good reason, you have to give some consideration to Firing Line. Gave Dortmund all he could handle twice, although Dort did throw a shoe at the start of the last race.
Main concern about Firing Line is his stamina. Can he get the 1 1/4 or will it be a shade too much. Has been training well and they have been training him to rate off horses and hes been accepting to that. He also has a phenomenal pattern and the odds of him moving up and running a career best figure are pretty good.
Bolo is an interesting long shot. He is definitely more of a turf horse, but there have been some good turf horses that showed up to get a piece in the Derby. Dullahan, Paddy O Prado, Animal Kingdom (won, but I dont think Bolo is in that category. Animal Kingdom had the first on first angle as well). The word early was that the trainer/owner were on different sides in wanting to run. Trainer didnt really want to but owners were pushing for it. Horse has not trained bad though and is definitely an interesting long shot.
Turf horses do seem to take a liking to the Churchill dirt, so there is that too for Bolo. I don't have him as a win candidate but I may include him on some exotics underneath.
Really a great year to spread around and try to take down one of the huge exotics. the Tri and Super always pay extremely well regardless of a favorite winning. so much $ in these pools, it is the best race of the year to bet.
Remember, Big Brown won at short odds, paid like $6 to win.....$2 superfecta still paid over 58k.
Carpe Diem was one of my keys until the post draw. Being shoved down inside isnt a great spot for him. I still think he can work out a good trip though. The 2 spot hasnt had terrible success but youd still much prefer a post more outside. If he can clear OchoOchoOcho he would work out a good trip inside. He tends to get worked up sometimes and he will be sitting in the gate for a while. Would watch him pre race if you are betting him as he is one that has had previous issues. Really bummed about his post draw though. This one was spaced well and aimed perfectly for the Derby. has the stamina for sure. will need some racing luck but I don't discount him completely. Johnny V did choose this one after all when he could have picked Materiality instead.
