Elite Eight

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Cards-Saints total an "over" reaction

Cards-Saints total an "over" reaction

Cards-Saints total an "over" reaction

For football purists it was the Sunday night straight from hell.

Green Bay and Arizona put up points at pinball-machine pace. It was really the perfect storm of point production ? two red-hot quarterbacks who combined to complete 57 passes with 16 different players catching those passes. There were 17 penalties that moved the ball with the clock stopped, near-perfect red-zone efficiency and one team getting off to a big lead early and forcing the other to pass more than it might have wanted to.

The offensive explosion was so great that the Cardinals beat the total of 48 on their own total and the Packers were only three points away from the number.

If you like the over in the Cardinals-Saints game this week, and it appears that majority of bettors do, the points had better come early and often, because the number has been set at 57. Some books were offering a half-point higher or lower by mid-week.

Can the Saints and Cardinals, both with tired legs after just five days of rest, light it up in the Superdome Saturday afternoon?

Or is the number a bit inflated by what happened in Arizona Sunday and the public?s love of offense and its tendency the play the over more than the under?

If history is any guide, the answer is one really knows.

One thing is certain ? oddsmakers hiked the number up on Saints games this season as soon as they realized what New Orleans was all about.

The total in the opener was 50 points, but that was due in no small part to the Saints going against Detroit?s defense. Oddsmakers might have made a mistake with a 46-point number against Philadelphia the next week (NO, 48-22), and the numbers remained in the high 40s (against good defensive teams) or low 50s (vs. good offenses or weak defenses) the rest of the way, peaking at 57 points for the Monday Night game against New England.

But through it all, Saints games have actually been mediocre at topping 50-plus totals this season.

The under carried against Atlanta (50.5, 26-23 final), Tampa Bay (51, 38-7), Buffalo (51, 27-7) and Dallas (53.5, 27-17 loss). And in one of the testicle-crushing bad beats of the season, the under cashed by just two points in that 38-17 Patriots blowout when John Carney missed a 37-yard field goal with less than six minutes left. New Orleans and Atlanta covered 56 (Falcons, 35-27), as did the Saints and Rams (50.5, 28-23 final).

Hanidcapper ****** points out that that over the past decade there have been only about 10 other games with a total as high as that offered for Saturday?s NFC Divisional matchup.

?The highest playoff line I can remember was the January 2005 game between the Broncos and Colts at Indianapolis,? says Merril. ?The Colts were a 10-point home favorite and the over/under line was 56. The Colts won easily [and the total carried just as easily], 49-24. And in 2002 the Rams were 11.5-point favorites with an over/under of 55 and the Rams won, 45-17.?

Merrill also points out that the majority of games with a total of 55 or more points have gone over during the past decade.

Still, betting experts urge caution.

At *******, oddsmaker Peter Childs says that 57 is a ton of points, no matter what teams are playing.

?I see no value in betting this game over,? says Childs. ?Oddsmakers and bookmakers already know that the public is going to pound this over and they?re already doing it at Belmont.com. We?ve seen nothing but over money. And the total is already inflated in expectation of what the public is going to bet on Saturday.?

Caveat emptor.

Books favors Indianapolis and San Diego

Indianapolis remains the favorite to win the Super Bowl, now standing at +275 at betED.com. The offshore book lists San Diego at +300, with New Orleans the top NFC team at +375. Rex Ryan says the Jets should be favored, but betED.com politely disagrees and lists them at +1200 - the longest shot.

Will the Poodle gives the Seahawks some bite?

Seattle has become the butt of a lot of jokes for hiring Pete Carroll, but for Carroll the move makes some sense.

In addition to getting out of Dodge before the NCAA investigators start taking a close look at the football program, Carroll has a half-decent chance of making Seattle competitive, if only because the NFC West is so weak.

If Kurt Warner calls it quits after this season, the division won?t have one top-flight quarterback. The poodle will have to turn over half the roster in a short amount of time, but maybe if the Seahawks can go young, the players won?t tune out the rah-rah stuff that got real tired, real quick in his four-year stint in New England.

Offseason starts in Philadelphia, New England

Similar post mortems are being conducted in Philadelphia and New England as the fan base wonders what went wrong in the playoffs and how things can be fixed.

Both teams have contract headaches. The Patriots know that their best defensive player, Vince Wilfork, is a free agent and won?t be signing a deal that includes a hometown discount.

Eagles followers are looking at Donovan McNabb?s age (he turns 34 next November), multiplying it by the number of Lombardi Trophies the team has won (0) and wondering if it?s time for Kevin Kolb or even Michael Vick to take over.

Both teams badly need help on the defensive line. To compete against Dallas and New York the Eagles have to get someone on the other side to assist Trent Cole. The Patriots got absolutely zero pocket pressure from either its front line or linebackers and could use pass-rushing help at both positions. Imports Derrick Burgess and Adalius Thomas have been huge busts.

And both teams are questioning their secondaries. New England couldn?t stop any team that had a decent passing attack and the Eagles are feeling the loss of Brian Dawkins and are just starting to realize that their best corner, Asante Samuel, is all about jumping routes and doesn?t like contact.

 

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Divisional Playoff Handicapping Tidbits

Divisional Playoff Handicapping Tidbits

Divisional Playoff Handicapping Tidbits

And now there are eight, teams that is, still vying for the NFL championship. Hopefully, the four Wildcard Round games treated you well. Either way, what happened last weekend is in the past; it?s time now to look ahead to the Divisional Round. Four more games are on tap, two on Saturday, and two on Sunday, with side, total, and other wagering opportunities beaconing. With that said, like last week, I am here to take a closer look at the recent betting history of the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs. Let?s get to it.

One of the things you need to consider before beginning your Divisional Round playoff handicapping is that the results of recent years have been downright alarming, absolutely dominated by road teams, not only at the betting window, but actually in who wins and moves on as well. In fact, the last 14 Divisional Round games have seen visiting clubs go 9-5 SU & 12-2 ATS. Pittsburgh (over San Diego) last January, and Green Bay (over Seattle) in ?07 are the only exceptions of home teams that have both won and covered their games. To consider how big of a change this is, from ?95 to ?01, home teams in the Divisional Round owned a record of 22-6 SU & 17-10-1 ATS. It seems that earning that first round bye in the postseason and being able to host this second round game has not proven advantageous at all. Indianapolis, San Diego, New Orleans, and Minnesota will look to change that this weekend.

With such distinctive trends to begin with, it?s a good bet that we can come up with even better information simply by digging deeper. Let?s do just that, by looking at the lines, totals, scores, matchups, and stats that should be a part of your normal handicapping routine anyway.

General Divisional Trends
I?ve already touched on the fact that road teams have covered 12 of the last 14 Divisional Round games in the NFL playoffs. If you go back much further, to ?93, you?d see that road teams own only a slight 34-32-2 ATS edge though. That means that recent developments have differed from the norm. Does it go back this season? That remains to be seen. Here are some other general handicapping tidbits you might find useful for the weekend:


Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Ratings after applying 3.5-points for home field advantage were 4-0 ATS in the ?09 Divisional Round.

The extra day of rest has proven a hindrance for home teams when it comes to Divisional performance, as Saturday home teams are 5-3 SU & 3-5 ATS since ?05 while Sunday hosts have gone just 2-6 SU & 1-7 ATS.

In general, the Divisional Round has been a low scoring round, with the UNDER on the total going 11-6-1 in the last 18, producing 42.0 PPG on totals averaging 43.6.

In the recent 14 game stretch of dominance by road teams in the Divisional Round, the nine road outright wins have been accompanied by seven UNDER?s on the total, while the five home team wins have gone OVER the total at a 4-0-1 rate. In other words, correlated parlays should read ROAD-UNDER or HOME-OVER.

There have only been 11 inter-divisional games in this round over the last 17 years, with home teams owning a 7-4 SU & 5-5-1 ATS record in that span. These have been lower scoring games, with seven of the 11 going UNDER the total.

Trends by Seed Number
There have been some interesting performance observations when you consider the seed number of the team playing in a Divisional Round game. Take a look:


The performance of the #1 seeds has been particularly troubling of late, as they have lost seven straight games ATS and are just 2-5 SU in that span. They are just 2-10 ATS dating back to ?04, after having gone 14-4 SU & ATS in the prior 18. The #2 seeds have been more reliable, going 2-2 ATS in the last two seasons, and 5-5 ATS since ?04.

The #3 seeds are on a 6-2 ATS & 6-2 OVER run in ?03. #4 seeds are 6-2 UNDER in that same span and 4-4 ATS in their last eight Divisional Round games, but 3-1 ATS vs. the #1 in that span.

Dating back to ?96, #5 seeds that have reached the Divisional Round have been exceptional bets, going 7-2 ATS (4-5 SU).

Six straight #1 vs. #6 matchups in the Divisional Round have gone UNDER the total. As a sign of the new times, the #6 has swept the last three meetings, both SU & ATS, after losing the prior seven.

There has been a distinct difference in total results dependent upon the seed number of the host recently. In the last seven seasons, #1 seeds are 11-2-1 UNDER the total, while #2 seeds have gone 9-5 OVER the total.

Line Range Trends
Lines in the Divisional Round have been chalk-heavy, with the average favorite laying 7.1 points since ?93. Furthermore, 35 of the 68 games have had a line of a TD or more and only once has there been a home underdog in that span. Take a look at these other line specific trends:


Sizeable home favorites have not been a solid bet in the Divisional Round of late, as those laying a TD or more (7 pts) are just 6-5 SU & 3-8 ATS (27%) since ?04, including three straight outright losses.

There have been four double-digit favorites in the last four years of the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. Those teams are an ugly 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS.

In Divisional Round games where the final pointspread closed at 5-points or less, the road team has been nearly automatic, going 8-7 SU & 11-3-1 ATS (79%) since ?98. The UNDER is also 11-4 in those games.

Bettors haven?t had nearly the success dealing with the opening lines in Divisional Playoff games as they did in the Wildcard Round. In fact, when betting action has moved the line one way or the other since ?93 in the Divisional Round, this ?smart money? just 24-29 ATS (45%). What?s more, in 40 of the 54 games, bettors sided with the host team.

The line movement numbers get downright ugly for bettors when you only consider recent years. Over the last six playoff years, line moves have only shown a 5-15 ATS (25%) record. In other words, you?d have been much better off fading the line move.

Interestingly, in the Divisional Round playoff games since ?05, seven games have seen the opening line move by 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In those games, bettors have been wrong on the line move EVERY TIME (0-7 ATS).

Total Range Trends
As mentioned before, the majority of Divisional games have gone UNDER the total in recent years. Let?s see what else we can uncover regarding totals:


Similarly to the Wildcard Round, extreme totals in Divisional Playoff games have produced mostly OVER games, while the moderately posted totals by oddsmakers have meant lower scoring games. Dating back to ?99, in games with totals posted at either less than 38 or more than 48, OVER the total is 14-6-1 (70%). In games inside that range, the UNDER has been the way to go, 16-6 (73%).

The betting public has had a very good handle on totals in the Divisional Round, as since ?93, when incoming action has moved the total higher, OVER players have gone 14-8 (64%). When the total has been pushed lower throughout the week, UNDER bettors have gone 22-16 (58%). Combined, following the total move has netted a 60% chance of winning.

The success of following the money on a total bet drops dramatically if the total move was 1.5-points or more throughout the week. In such cases since ?93, this ?smart money? has gone 11-11 (50%).

Scoring Trends
Like the Wildcard Round, there are certain point thresholds that teams reach in the Divisional Round that greatly influence their chances of winning or losing.


Home teams that fail to reach 20 points have a little better chance of winning in the Divisional Round than in the Wildcard Round according to recent history, having gone just 4-13 SU as compared to 1-13 SU since ?93. However, those teams have not covered a pointspread in that time, going 0-16-1 ATS.

Those home teams that do reach and/or exceed the 20-point mark have gone 44-7 SU & 32-18-1 ATS in the Divisional Round since ?93. However, five of these outright losses have come since ?04, and the record in those games is just 12-5 SU & 7-10 ATS, as road team scoring has picked up.

The frequency of road teams winning in the Divisional Round when they fail to reach 20 points has been one in eight games (5-35 SU & 13-25-2 ATS) over the last 17 years. If you recall the Wildcard Round stat on this, these same teams were just 1-31 SU & 1-30-1 ATS since ?93.

Road teams that do make it to 20 points or higher are only 15-13 SU but 21-7 ATS in the Divisional Round since ?93. Recently though, or over the last nine years, they are 11-6 SU & 15-2 ATS, making this strategy one to consider as you analyze this weekend?s scoring potential.

Trends based upon Won-Lost Records
Strangely, there have 26 of 68 games in the last 17 years of the Divisional Playoffs that have matched teams with the same number of wins or the road team actually having won more games. Such situations have proven very good indicators that the road team was going to cover the pointspread, as they are 15-10-1 ATS. Since ?04, they are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. Here are a couple of other trends concerning won-lost marks and the Divisional Round:


All four of this year?s home teams in the Divisional Round have won 12 games or more in the regular season. From 1995-2003, such divisional hosts were 20-6 SU & 18-7-1 ATS in their first playoff game. Since however, they are just 11-10 SU & 6-15 ATS, including 3-7 SU & 1-9 ATS against a road team with 12 or more wins (incl. Wildcard win).

This is typically the end of the line for road teams that won nine or fewer games in the regular season, as they are just 4-13 SU & 7-10 ATS in the Divisional Round since 93.

Road teams that won 11 or more games in the regular season then added a victory in the Wildcard Round have proven very dangerous over the last six years in the Divisional Round. In that time span, such road teams are 8-3 SU & 10-1 ATS. The only host to both win and cover against such a club was the 2004-05 Patriots, who beat Indy 20-3.

Trends based upon Statistical Traits
Going into Divisional playoff games, here are the trends concerning statistical edges. Keep in mind that these season stats DO include those obtained in the previous week?s Wildcard games.


Teams with an edge in Offensive Points per Game are 39-27-2 ATS (59%) in the Divisional Round since ?93. However, since ?02, the effectiveness of this particular stat has waned, with a record of just 16-15-1 ATS (52%).

Teams with an edge in Offensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 25-25-2 (50%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ?96. Again though, over the last eight seasons, the team with the edge in this category has dropped to 14-17-1 (45%).

The ability to run the football has proven more important in Divisional games than in the Wildcard Round of late, as since ?93, teams with an edge in Yards Per Rush are 35-31-1 ATS (53%). Over the last eight playoff seasons, that record climbs to 20-11-1 ATS (65%). Be sure to consider YPR this weekend.

Teams that have demonstrated a greater ability to produce big plays through the air, or those averaging more Pass Yards per Attempt, are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) in the Divisional Round since ?93, the most definitive statistical edge we have uncovered in the playoffs thus far. However, the last five years have seen a dramatic decline to 6-14 ATS (30%) so be careful when applying PYA.

Yards per Play used to be an effective predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat had gone 36-20-2 ATS (64%) prior to mid ?07. Like the PYA stat though, recent results have turned dramatically, with only one of the last 10 Divisional Round teams with an edge in YPP having won & covered their game.

Yards per Point also went through a stretch of great success as a predictor in Divisional Round, as teams with an edge in this key stat are 41-25-2 ATS (62%) overall since ?93. Like our other offensive indicators thus far though, it has turned of late, as evidenced by the 14-14 ATS (50%) record since ?03.

Turnover Differential has meant very little in terms of predicting Divisional Round games since ?93, as teams with an edge in this stat are 30-36-2 ATS (45%). Little has changed of late either, with edge teams owning a 10-14 ATS (42%) record over the six seasons.

To this point, we have uncovered very little of anything other than Yards Per Rush that has been consistent enough to provide a winning Divisional Round strategy using offensive statistics. Let?s move over to the defensive side of the ball.


Teams with an edge in Defensive Points per Game are 29-37-2 (44%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ?93, so we aren?t off to a good start in our research. In fact, it gets even worse more recently, as better defensive teams in this stat are just 3-11 ATS (21%) in the L14.

Teams with an edge in Defensive 3rd Down Conversion Percentage are 27-22-1 ATS (55%) ATS in the Divisional Round since ?96, a record much better than those with a PPG allowed edge. Recent findings show that teams with this edge are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS (75%) over the last two seasons.

A previously demonstrated ability to stop the run on defense has proven very important in Divisional Round games, as since ?93, teams with an edge in Defensive Yards per Rush are 41-24-2 ATS (63%). Over the last seven playoff seasons, an edge in this stat has produced a phenomenal 22-6 ATS (79%) record. You might want to note that Indianapolis finished 19th in the NFL against the rush this season while San Diego was 24th & New Orleans was 27th.

Teams better at stopping big plays through the air, or those allowing fewer Pass Yards per Attempt, are only 28-38-2 ATS (42%) in the Divisional Round since ?93, and 9-15 ATS (38%) over the last six seasons. Clearly, run stopping defenses have wreaked bigger havoc in the Divisional Round.

When you combine the Yards per Rush allowed and Yards per Pass Attempt allowed, you get Yards per Play on defense. Teams with an edge in the Divisional Round in this stat are 35-31-2 ATS (53%) since ?93, but only 6-10 ATS (38%) over the last four seasons.

Defensive Yards per Point has turned out to be an effective & consistent defensive predictor in Divisional Round, if used as a FADE, as teams with an edge in this stat are 25-41-2 ATS (38%) since ?93. The trend has held the same percentage over the last four seasons, 6-10 ATS.

It?s evident from all of the above trends that the Divisional games have proven quite unpredictable if using nothing more than stats, especially when you compare it to the Wildcard Round.

Since rushing stats have proven our best weapon, what about the scenario where a team has the edge in both Offensive and Defensive Yards per Rush in a Divisional matchup? Well, these teams are 20-9 ATS (69%) since ?93, and 17-0 ATS (100%) over the last 11 seasons. I think we just found our GOLDEN NUGGET!!!

 

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Cowboys equipped to wreck fairy tale

Cowboys equipped to wreck fairy tale

Cowboys equipped to wreck fairy tale
At this point, Brett Favre's second return-from-retirement act qualifies as a big hit. Favre has made the Minnesota Vikings better, and his presence makes the NFL more interesting.

His indecisiveness gets annoying, no doubt, but it all was well worth it. We would rather see Favre in a purple jersey than Favre in Wrangler jeans playing backyard football with a bunch of buffoons on a Mississippi farm.

But the bottom line for Favre, and those who judge him, will be how the Vikings fare in the playoffs. The 40-year-old quarterback came back to get to the Super Bowl, not get knocked out early in the postseason.

So, it's easy for me to circle the most intriguing game on this weekend's divisional round schedule. The Dallas Cowboys are rolling into Minnesota, and they appear equipped to wreck Favre's fairy tale.

Dallas, which has allowed 31 points during a four-game winning streak, has a devastating defense and a quarterback in Tony Romo who in many ways mirrors a young Favre.

I won't go as far as to predict the end of the Vikings' season, but the Cowboys look like a good bet as 3-point underdogs Sunday.

Break it down, and the teams seem dead even. Minnesota's home-field advantage is significant. Dallas' recent success is undeniable. Expect a thriller that goes down to the wire.

I'll side with all four underdogs to cover this weekend, but the favorite most likely to win is the San Diego Chargers.

According to The Gold Sheet handicapper Bruce Marshall, this is a good time to play the 'dogs. In the past six seasons, road underdogs in the divisional round are 16-8 against the spread (ATS). The trend is a stronger 10-2 ATS in the past three seasons.

Teams that earned a first-round bye in the playoffs don't always benefit from the time off.

In each of the past four years, Marshall noted, a top seed in either the AFC or NFC has been eliminated in the divisional round. That fact should put the Vikings, Chargers, Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints on upset alert.

Micah Roberts of ******* said the Saints, 7-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals, could be in the most trouble.

New Orleans covered two of its past nine games as a favorite, and its past two victories, over Atlanta and Washington in early December, each were by three points. The Saints' 20-17 home loss to Tampa Bay on Dec. 27 was especially alarming.

The Cardinals, 6-2 straight up on the road this season, have covered all five of their playoff games the past two seasons.

It will be interesting to see how both quarterbacks perform. Kurt Warner passed for five touchdowns in Arizona's 51-45 overtime victory over Green Bay last week. New Orleans' Drew Brees led the league in touchdown passes with 34, but his numbers declined late, and he sat out the final game of the regular season.

"The Saints have not won a game in about a month. You don't just turn on the switch and say, 'We're ready to play.' There has been no continuity," said Roberts, a former sports book director, most recently at Sunset Station. "You can't let Tampa Bay roll into your house and beat you when you're fighting for the No. 1 seed. That just can't happen. I think the Cardinals are the play."

The Colts, 61/2-point favorites over the Baltimore Ravens, have not tried to win a game since Dec. 17, when they beat Jacksonville, 35-31. Will a long layoff throw off the timing of Peyton Manning?

During its 14-0 start, Indianapolis won seven games by four points or fewer, including a 17-15 victory at Baltimore on Nov. 22.

The Chargers are 7-point favorites over the New York Jets, who boast the league's No. 1 defense. San Diego is sharp, riding an 11-game winning streak, and quarterback Philip Rivers definitely has the edge over Jets rookie Mark Sanchez.

The Gold Sheet's projections indicate close games and live underdogs: Saints, 31-30; Colts, 25-24; Chargers, 24-22; Cowboys, 28-20.

Favre's beard is gray, but his on-field act is not growing old. He passed for 33 touchdowns, was picked off only seven times and put up a career-high 107.2 passer rating this season.

Perhaps more impressive, in eight regular-season home games -- in which the Vikings went 8-0 -- Favre threw 21 touchdown passes. And two interceptions.

Even if the Cowboys upset the Vikings, Favre's comeback was not a failure.

 

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BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES
THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE CARDINALS (+7) OVER THE SAINTS

If you are talking momentum, the Cardinals have it, and the Saints stumbled to the finish line.

Kurt Warner knows how to win in the postseason and is coming off an impressive performance last week.

The game should be close, and getting points is a good edge to have.

THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE SAINTS-CARDINALS OVER (57)

Both teams rely on their offenses and have prolific passing attacks.

Neither team's defense will be able to pressure the quarterback, and that will lead to more offense.

The Saints average 31 points at home, and the Cardinals have topped 30 points in five of their past seven games.

LAST WEEK: 2-2

SEASON: 15-21-2

 

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HUNGRY RAVENS: Another underdog poised to take bite

HUNGRY RAVENS: Another underdog poised to take bite

HUNGRY RAVENS: Another underdog poised to take bite

Three favorites fell last week; Colts could be next




Four teams failed to make the cut, and now the NFL playoffs move forward with an elite group of eight.

Three of last week's favorites -- the Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots -- got flattened. Will the underdogs keep rolling? Here's a look at today's matchups:

? Baltimore at Indianapolis (-61/2): The Ravens jumped on the Patriots early and often to set up a showdown in Indianapolis. The Colts shut it down in the final two weeks of the season to the consternation of their fans and, it seems, to many of their players.

All could be forgiven if they perform well today, but Baltimore's defense will have something to say about it. The Ravens confounded Tom Brady and now get their shot at Peyton Manning.

The Indianapolis quarterback does it all. This season has been one of Manning's most impressive bodies of work, resulting in another well-deserved Most Valuable Player award.

But when you think of a team that made it to 14-0, with a shot at going for history, wouldn't your first guess be they were pasting teams throughout the year? That wasn't the case. In the Colts' final eight wins, they won by an average margin of 5.5 points.

To their credit, the Colts handle adversity and win close games.

Baltimore scored 24 first-quarter points to derail New England, handing the Patriots their first home playoff loss in the Bill Belichick era. The Ravens won the turnover battle 4-2, produced 13 rushing first downs and converted 10 of 16 third-down situations.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh got his team to play a disciplined game, committing only three penalties that totaled 15 yards.

Most people are claiming the Patriots threw away the game. My belief is Baltimore took it away. I stated my case for the Ravens last week. Nothing has changed to dissuade me from gladly accepting the points in this AFC tilt.

? Arizona at New Orleans (-7): We could witness offensive fireworks in the Big Easy, with the Cardinals and Saints expected to stage a track meet. The astounding total of 57 is what immediately grabs the eye. This is a playoff game, right?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent out a total of 571/2 on Sunday after the Cardinals and Packers produced 1,024 yards total offense and a staggering 96 points. Now the NFC West champs are off to face Drew Brees and the Saints, who scored 510 points and averaged 32 points per game this season.

LVSC's Ken White and the oddsmaking team most certainly were influenced by the Green Bay-Arizona shootout when putting this rare playoff total together.

"The total was easily three full points higher as a result of that game," White said. "My database goes far back, and in the last 6,000 NFL regular-season games, only eight times has a total reached 58 points. These two teams combined could be in rarefied air with the points scored in this game."

After flirting with an unbeaten season, the Saints enter the playoffs having lost three in a row. This is a team that should benefit mightily from a week off, physically and mentally.

Brees has countless targets at his disposal, and don't sell the Saints' running attack short. Pierre Thomas averaged 5.4 yards per carry and can take over a game. If the Saints build a lead, Thomas can pound out tough yards and burn clock.

The Cardinals' 51-45 overtime victory over the Packers featured big-time performances from two receivers who picked up the slack with the absence of Anquan Boldin. Steve Breaston and Early Doucet teamed for 202 yards receiving and three touchdowns. Boldin is questionable today with an ankle injury.

The Superdome will be rocking, and that might slow Arizona's offense. The Cardinals posted an impressive 6-2 road record this year. Or was it impressive? They did not play one game away from home against a team that finished the season with a winning record.

Laying 7 points with New Orleans in a playoff game against the reigning NFC champions, who scored 51 last week, seems a strange proposition. But that's how I'm leaning.

Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams should dial up interesting packages to contain quarterback Kurt Warner.

I have no strong opinion on the total because these teams are capable of blowing the roof off the Superdome. But it's a playoff game, and the number is insane, so I would consider the under.

 

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NFL DIVISIONAL CAPSULES

NFL DIVISIONAL CAPSULES

NFL DIVISIONAL CAPSULES





Last week: 2-2 vs. spread; 2-2 straight up

Season: 122-130-8 vs. spread; 156-104 straight up

TODAY


ARIZONA (11-6) AT NEW ORLEANS (13-3)

TIME: 1:30 p.m. LINE: Saints -7 TOTAL: 57

? FACTS: Arizona QB Kurt Warner is 9-3 in postseason starts but 0-2 in the Superdome. In the 2000 postseason, his Rams were 31-28 losers to the Saints in the wild-card round despite being six-point favorites. The next season, St. Louis lost as a 14-point choice against New England 20-17 in the Super Bowl. ... The Saints are the only team to go from worst to first in their division this season. In fact, they are the only last-place team from 2008 to even escape the cellar in 2009. ... Had the Cardinals lost last week's wild-card game to visiting Green Bay after blowing that 21-point second-half lead, it would have matched the biggest collapse by any team the past two years. Arizona also squandered an 18-point home advantage against Philadelphia in last year's NFC title game but rallied to win. ... Conversely, New Orleans has won three times this season after trailing by double digits, tied for most in the league, including a comeback from 21 down in Miami. ... The Saints have lost three straight games entering the postseason, but that's nothing. The wild-card Jets of 1986 lost their final five en route to a 10-6 record. New York promptly won its first playoff game, 35-15 over Kansas City. ... The only time Arizona "stopped" Green Bay on five first-and-goal possessions last week was when the Packers faced a first-and-goal from the 2 at the end of the first half but with only four seconds on the clock. Green Bay opted for a field goal. ... The Cardinals have gone 6-2 on the road this season, ending a league-record 26-season drought without a winning away mark. The Saints, meanwhile, inexplicably have one of the league's worst home/road win differentials. In eight of the past 10 seasons, including this year, they have had more road triumphs than victories in home games. ... When these teams met in Arizona's Sun Devil Stadium in October 2004, a sun-seared gathering of 28,109 attended the Cardinals' 34-10 rout. There's been no smaller crowd in a league game since.

? ANALYSIS: One of the telling comments emanating from the Cardinals locker room after last week's overtime victory was S Antrel Rolle talking about how "gassed" his team was and that he was grateful the game didn't extend any longer. Things won't get easier for Rolle and his pals on short rest today going against the league's top-rated QB and his wave of receivers. Not to mention the likely return of TE Jeremy Shockey and RB Pierre Thomas (questionable, ribs), who makes New Orleans' ground game special. The Saints just need to find a way to pressure Warner, especially with DE Charles Grant out. But fellow DE Will Smith has 13 sacks and will be heading a defensive unit that souped up its health during its bye month. Arizona WR Anquan Boldin remains questionable (ankle/knee).

? FORECAST: Saints 35, Cardinals 21


BALTIMORE (10-7) AT INDIANAPOLIS (14-2)

TIME: 5:15 p.m. LINE: Colts -61/2 TOTAL: 44

? FACTS: For the second consecutive postseason, Baltimore, which beat New England 33-14 on Sunday, has to travel on short rest after a wild-card road playoff game. Last year's Ravens came off a victory in Miami before beating host Tennessee 13-10 in the divisional round. That's the only time in league history a team has succeeded in the short-rest two-step on the road. Only two other teams ever have been put in this situation, and they lost by a cumulative 84 points. ... In Indianapolis' 17-15 victory over Baltimore in Week 11, the Ravens penetrated the Colts' 30-yard line on seven drives but came away with only five field goals. It's the only game this season in which Baltimore didn't score a TD. ... Counting the last two away games of the regular season, which Baltimore won to reach the playoffs, the Ravens are going to have to win on the road for five consecutive weeks to reach the Super Bowl. No team has won that many in succession in enemy buildings since the 1936 Packers. ... Baltimore's fifth-ranked rushing offense will be engaging an Indianapolis defense that has yielded an average of 126.5 rushing yards per game, the highest rate among the 12 playoff teams and ninth worst overall. In the Colts' 2006 Super season, when they yielded a league-worst 173 a game, they were the first team in 22 years to allow every regular-season foe to have 100-plus rushing yards. But in the postseason, three straight AFC foes failed to reach that plateau. ... The Ravens' average starting field position in their victory at New England was the 50, the best for any team since the Jets had that average launch point in Week 4 last year in a 56-35 victory against Arizona. ... Since 2002, Baltimore has lost seven straight to the Colts and is 0-4 in Indy in its history. Until last week, though, the Ravens never had won in New England, either. ... Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell, along with the Jets' Rex Ryan, is trying to become the first NFL rookie head coach to win a league title since George Seifert took over the Super 49ers in the 1989 season and won.

? ANALYSIS: There's been concern that Baltimore QB Joey Flacco (probable, hip/quadriceps) is laboring both running and stepping into his throws. He was only 4-for-10 with an interception last week, and on two of those completions, it took leaping acrobatic grabs. He won't be able to keep up with the Colts' Peyton Manning. And unlike the last time Flacco faced the Colts, he'll be facing pass-rushers supreme Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, who had 23 sacks between them. And good luck to Baltimore rookie OT Jared Gaither, who missed drills with an ankle injury this week. As for shifty Ravens RB Ray Rice, well, he had his worst rushing day of the season against the Colts earlier, averaging only 3.6 yards on 20 carries. So maybe Indy has the recipe for slowing him.

? FORECAST: Colts 27, Ravens 13 SUNDAY


DALLAS (12-5) AT MINNESOTA (12-4)

TIME: 10 a.m. LINE: Vikings -3 TOTAL: 451/2

? FACTS: If QB Brett Favre leads the second-seeded Vikings to victory, he'll improve his record to 3-9 in games against the Cowboys (1-3 in the playoffs). ... Flashback: The "Hail Mary" was born 34 postseasons ago in Bloomington, Minn., when Dallas' Roger Staubach heaved a prayer toward Drew Pearson in the final seconds for a 50-yard score that resulted in a 17-14 Cowboys victory. ... Minnesota special teams whiz Percy Harvin had two TDs on kickoff returns this season, but his chances could be limited Sunday. Dallas rookie David Buehler has 29 touchbacks on his kickoffs, a league high and a substantial improvement over last year's team total of zero. ... In Dallas' second consecutive rout of Philadelphia last week, the Cowboys ran 47 plays to the Eagles' 18 in the first half. To put that in perspective, there were only 10 occasions all season in which a team had a play differential greater than that (29) for an entire game. ... The Vikings have yielded five non-offensive TDs this season, the highest total among the NFC's final four. But that's a six-TD drop from last season. ... In the 12-team playoff format that's been in place since 1990, all four of the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the divisional round have advanced to the conference finals four times, but only once did they all beat the line. ... In Dallas' wild-card victory, the Cowboys saw double-digit penalties marched off against them for the fifth time this season, tying for a league high. They are 4-1 in such games. All other teams are 16-29. ... Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson, last season's rushing champion who had 1,383 ground yards this season, averaged 4.4 yards a carry but over his final six games got past 3.9 a rush only against the arm tacklers in Giants costumes. But he did have six touchdowns.

? ANALYSIS: During the Vikings' fade after Thanksgiving, their offensive tackles, Bryant McKinnie and rookie Phil Loadholt, have received criticism for being lead-footed and keeping Favre in a constant state of peril. He went down 10 times in Minnesota's three late losses. And those bookends weren't creating holes big enough for Peterson to run through. Whereas the Cowboys' protection schemes, not to mention a stout running game led by elusive Felix Jones, have improved and afforded Tony Romo time to play like a Pro Bowler again. With Dallas getting that pesky playoff victory out of the way last week, it seems the pressure is landing squarely on Favre and his men.

? FORECAST: Cowboys 27, Vikings 24


N.Y. JETS (10-7) AT SAN DIEGO (13-3)

TIME: 1:40 p.m. LINE: Chargers -7 TOTAL: 421/2

? WEATHER: High 60s, 20 percent chance of rain

? FACTS: Although the Jets earned a 38-0 victory at Oakland this season, they haven't mastered cross-country travel. Last year, they became the first Eastern team in history to receive the cursed Golden Sombrero, which goes to the team that loses on the road to all four West Coast teams. ... No. 2 seed San Diego, coming off a bye, averages 3.3 yards per rush, the worst rate for any team the past two years. The last time a team won a Super Bowl with a mark this bad was the Baltimore Colts in 1970. The Jets are at 4.5. ... On the other hand, Chargers QB Philip Rivers has a norm of 8.8 yards per throw, tops in the league. Jets QB Mark Sanchez is at 6.7, with 11 more interceptions in the regular season and eight fewer TD passes. ... Over the past 11 weeks, the Jets have held enemy passing games to fewer than 3 yards a throw, compared with seven such games for the rest of the league combined. But not one of those Jets foes had a QB ranked among the top 15 in the league. Rivers is the third-rated passer. ... Dating to the early days of the AFL, the Chargers are 4-8-1 against the line at home in the postseason, 6-7 straight up. ... Last season, San Diego's defense was on the field 117 more plays than its offense, the third-worst margin in the league. This year that mark is only minus-19. ... For the first time since 2002, there isn't a head coach in the Final Eight who owns a Super Bowl ring. Of field bosses still working, San Diego's Norv Turner and Arizona's Ken Whisenhunt have the most playoff victories with four apiece. ... At the season's midpoint, the Jets had the league's 13th-rated offense. They finished at No. 20. ... Since 2003, teams with byes in the divisional round have gone 8-16 against the spread, but from 1990 to 2002, that mark was 32-18-2. ... San Diego, which never has won a Super Bowl, might be hungrier. The Jets earned a crown as recently as the 1968 season.

? ANALYSIS: Sanchez, who has been New York's Achilles' arm most of this year, especially with his 20 interceptions, was glowing after last week's 24-14 Jets victory in Cincinnati as a three-point underdog. But it's not like he was working with a full game plan -- or a full field. The TV guys said they couldn't believe how he was scanning only small portions of the secondary and not checking all his reads. If he gets a swelled head and tries to get in a duel with Rivers, his across-the-body throws will be coming back the other way. That Jets pass defense has been sensational, but CB Darrelle Revis can't cover all those skyscraper receivers, led by Vincent Jackson, and also keep an eye on TE Antonio Gates and the Chargers RBs. Rivers has too much poise to screw this up.

? FORECAST: Chargers 31, Jets 13


Last week: 2-2 vs. spread; 2-2 straight up

Season total: 122-130-8 vs. spread; 156-104 straight up

 

[Lumi]

Cardinals at Saints

Cardinals at Saints

Cardinals at Saints

The Arizona Cardinals try to keep up their playoff magic this Saturday afternoon, traveling to the Big Easy to battle the top seed in the NFC, the New Orleans Saints.

Arizona is coming off the highest-scoring postseason game ever with a 51-45 overtime victory over Green Bay. The Packers rallied back from a 31-10 deficit to force OT, but the Cardinals scored on a controversial defensive touchdown to take the money and advance on to the second round. Kurt Warner produced another magnificent playoff performance by throwing for 379 yards and five touchdowns.

The Cardinals improved to 7-0 ATS this season as an underdog after cashing as 2 ?-point home 'dogs. Arizona has done most of its damage this season away from Glendale, going 6-2 SU overall and 5-0 ATS when getting points on the highway. Despite the shootout with the Packers, the Cards have finished 'under' the total in six of the last eight games.

Cardinals' wide receiver Anquan Boldin is inching closer to a return after missing Sunday's victory with knee and ankle injuries. Past Larry Fitzgerald's two touchdown grabs, ex-LSU Tiger Early Doucet made a name for himself with a pair of touchdown catches, while Steve Breaston hauled in 125 yards and a score for Arizona.

The Saints started the season 13-0, but haven't won a game since December 13, and haven't had a victory at the Superdome since a November 30th win over the Patriots. New Orleans dropped each of its last three regular season contests against Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Carolina, but the top seed in the NFC was never really in doubt.

New Orleans' offense ranked at the top of the league, scoring 510 points this season. Amazingly, the Saints tallied just 44 points in the final three weeks, all losses. The initial defeat to Dallas broke a 17-game streak of scoring at least 24 points, dating back to December 2008. Sean Payton's team was a covering machine to start the season, going 6-0 ATS out of the gate. However, the Saints were unable to cover a bunch of bloated lines the rest of the way, compiling a 2-8 ATS mark to wrap up the year.

With New Orleans scoring at will for most of the season, the Saints did have plenty of high totals, but that wasn't an automatic 'over' play for the most part. In the nine games with the total set at 50 or higher, the 'under' cashed six times, including the "57" spot against the Patriots. Six of the last seven games overall for the Saints have finished 'under' the total, including each of the last four at the Superdome.

The Cardinals have broken the 30-point barrier seven times this season, but yet this is only the second instance in which Arizona will play in a game with a total listed above 50. The lone 50+ total came in a 28-21 Week 4 victory over Houston, with the game barely finishing 'under' the closing total of 50 ?.


Capper Nelson feels the quarterback advantage does lie with Warner over Drew Brees, "While many will give the Saints an edge with Brees at QB and the amazing numbers he is capable of, Brees has won just one playoff game compared with Warner, who is 9-3 in the postseason with some of the best playoff statistics in the history of the NFL. Warner played a near-perfect game last week and the Cardinals have the receiving talent to play with New Orleans in a shootout if this game plays out in that fashion. Arizona also ran the ball with great success last week, averaging nearly seven yards per carry."

For some odd reason, the Cards and Saints have faced each other only three times in the regular season since 2000, while Arizona has made one trip to the Superdome since 1998. The lone venture to Louisiana came in 2007, as the Saints outlasted the Cards, 31-24, cashing as four-point home favorites.

The underdog has been the play the last three seasons in the divisional playoffs, with the team receiving points in this round going 10-2 ATS and 7-5 SU. Arizona has helped contribute to the 'dog success with the 33-13 beatdown of Carolina last season as ten-point 'pups. Three teams won outright in the second round in 2008, as the Cards, Eagles, and Ravens all cashed as road underdogs.

Nelson says it won't be easy for New Orleans to flip the switch this week, "The bye week can help to rejuvenate the team, but since the Monday night blowout over New England in late November, the Saints have been unimpressive with two narrow wins and three losses. The home-field advantage in the dome is perceived to be significant, but the Saints covered just once in the final five home games. Arizona's offense is well suited for a dome environment and Warner had some of best performances under a dome in St. Louis."

The Cardinals' defense will once again have their hands full according to Nelson, "The New Orleans defense improved considerably this season, but still remains a concern while Arizona's issues on defense will be more of a focal point this week. The Cardinals nearly blew a huge early lead last week, eventually allowing over 400 passing yards and several big plays. The Cardinals defense did make the game-winning play and this is a playoff proven group that won on the road at Carolina as a big underdog last season in this round of the playoffs."

Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetED, says the losing streak the Saints suffered to end the season affected this line, "Had New Orleans not struggled, this line would be 7 ? or 9 playing at home versus the Cardinals."

The public jumped on the Packers last Sunday, but now the tables may have turned in favor of the defending NFC Champs, "The early bettors are on Arizona, but we expect that to change closer to game-time. The majority of the public bets on game day and we think they'll back the Saints in this one. This line could move up off the key number of 7 if it gets too heavy. The total will remain as is unless wise action comes in on the 'under.' If you see the total drop, it'll be due to that reason only and the public will stay on the 'over' on Saturday," says Scott.

The Saints are currently listed as a seven-point favorite at most shops, while the total listed at 57. The game kicks off at 4:30 PM EST on Saturday afternoon and will be televised nationally on FOX.

 

[Lumi]

Preview: Cardinals (10-6) at Saints (13-3)

Preview: Cardinals (10-6) at Saints (13-3)

Preview: Cardinals (10-6) at Saints (13-3)

Date: January 16, 2010 4:30 PM EDT

The New Orleans Saints' offense hasn't been clicking lately, but one look at the Arizona Cardinals' porous defense from wild-card weekend has to have them feeling good about their chances of rediscovering their prolific passing game.

To keep up with Arizona's air attack, they probably have to.

Kurt Warner and the Cardinals won the highest-scoring playoff game in NFL history last week to punch a ticket to the Superdome for Saturday's divisional showdown, and points should again be plentiful as Drew Brees and the Saints look to shake their late-season rust.

The defending NFC champions were underdogs in their own building going into their wild-card contest against Green Bay on Sunday, but the absence of Anquan Boldin didn't slow Warner and the Cardinals (11-6) against the conference's hottest team.


Warner staked Arizona to leads of 17-0 and 31-10 before the Packers rallied, exploding for 35 points over the final quarter and a half to force overtime after the Cardinals' Neil Rackers blew a last-second, 34-yard field goal.

Though Warner threw for 379 yards and more touchdowns (five) than incompletions (four), it was Arizona's defense that allowed it to escape. Karlos Dansby returned Aaron Rodgers' deflected fumble 17 yards for a touchdown on the third play of overtime to give the Cardinals a 51-45 victory.

"We knew how tough it was going to be on our defense with all the weapons they have offensively and how they've been playing," Warner said. "It was just one of those games where I felt great. I loved our playing. I felt like I was seeing everything well and it accumulates to 51 points."

Warner, 9-3 in the playoffs, hit Steve Breaston seven times for 125 yards and threw two touchdowns apiece to Larry Fitzgerald and Early Doucet, but spent time after the game fighting off rumors of his possible retirement.

"I don't think you ever want to stay too long, but you never want to go out before it's time," he said. "The hard part is trying to figure that out, but right now it's about another playoff game. It's about New Orleans and then we'll go from there."

The Saints (13-3) didn't put up 51 points this season, but scored 45 or more four times in the first six weeks and at least 35 three more times in starting 13-0.

With Brees being mentioned as an MVP front-runner and a perfect regular season in sight, though, New Orleans faded down the stretch. The offense was held to 17 points in home losses to Dallas and Tampa Bay, and with the NFC's top seed locked up, Brees and the starters rested in a 23-10 loss at Carolina in Week 17.

The Saints have had the NFL's No. 1 total offense in three of the four seasons since the arrival of Brees and coach Sean Payton, but have just one playoff win.

"We know how to play at a high level offensively," Brees said. "The opportunity to get guys healthy - that was huge. We've been banged up at times throughout the season."

Tight end Jeremy Shockey (toe), receiver Lance Moore (ankle) and leading rusher Pierre Thomas (ribs) were all hampered by injuries down the stretch, but each is expected to play Sunday.

Facing an Arizona defense that gave up 500 yards on two occasions this season and let the Packers rack up 403 through the air would seem to have Brees salivating, not that the four-time Pro Bowler would admit it.

"Everybody thinks this is going to be an offensive shootout," Brees said. "Obviously, I hope that we score a lot of points, but in the end, you have two defenses that play with a lot of confidence and play with a lot of pride, and I'm sure that they would have something to say about this."

New Orleans was 25th in total defense (357.8 yards per game) and 20th in points allowed (21.3), but scored eight touchdowns itself - three by safety Darren Sharper.

Another potential playmaker, rookie cornerback Malcolm Jenkins, is expected to play despite a hamstring injury.

Boldin, who hurt his left ankle and knee in the regular-season finale against Green Bay, says he feels much better this week after sitting out the wild-card game and is optimistic he'll play.

Gerald Hayes, however, may not. Arizona's middle linebacker sprained his ankle Sunday and was wearing a walking boot this week, leaving his status in doubt.

Whether Hayes plays or not, the Cardinals' defense has plenty to work on.

"It's hard to say anything positive when you give up as many yards as we did on defense, not just the cornerbacks, but everybody," coach Ken Whisenhunt said. "It goes back to doing a better job of tackling."

With Arizona's defense already tired and having only five days to rest, rookie running back Beanie Wells may play a bigger role against a Saints defense that allowed an average of 166.3 yards on the ground over the last three weeks.

Wells had 91 yards on 14 carries Sunday, and the Cardinals are 7-1 when he rushes for more than 50 yards.

This is the first postseason meeting between Arizona and New Orleans. The teams last met Dec. 16, 2007, at the Superdome, with Brees going 26 for 30 for 315 yards and two touchdowns in the Saints' 31-24 win. Warner threw for 233 yards and three TDs.

 

[Lumi]

Matchup Analysis

Matchup Analysis

Matchup Analysis

Week 19


ARIZONA (11-6) vs NEW ORLEANS (13-3)

Game Time: 4:30 p.m. EDT Saturday, January 16

Stadium: Louisiana Superdome Surface: turf






RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
ARIZONA HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 5 - 4 6 - 2 11 - 6 5 - 4 4 - 3 9 - 7 3 - 6 3 - 5 6 - 11
Last 5 games 2 - 1 1 - 1 3 - 2 2 - 1 0 - 2 2 - 3 1 - 2 1 - 1 2 - 3
YTD vs. Div. 2 - 1 2 - 1 4 - 2 2 - 1 1 - 2 3 - 3 1 - 2 0 - 3 1 - 5
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
NEW ORLEANS HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 6 - 2 7 - 1 13 - 3 4 - 4 4 - 4 8 - 8 3 - 5 4 - 4 7 - 9
Last 5 games 0 - 2 2 - 1 2 - 3 0 - 2 0 - 3 0 - 5 0 - 2 1 - 2 1 - 4
YTD vs. Div. 2 - 1 2 - 1 4 - 2 0 - 3 1 - 2 1 - 5 1 - 2 0 - 3 1 - 5
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
ARIZONA 0 - 3 4 - 0 3 - 1 1 - 2 3 - 4 2 - 0 5 - 4 0 - 0
NEW ORLEANS 4 - 3 0 - 1 2 - 2 2 - 2 4 - 4 0 - 0 0 - 0 4 - 4



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

ARIZONA
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun SF 16 - 20 L -7 -5 L -9 48.5 46.0 U -10.0 G
09/20/09 Sun @JAC 31 - 17 W +4 +3 W +17 45.5 44.0 O + 4.0 G
09/27/09 Sun IND 10 - 31 L -0 -3 L -24 49.5 49.5 U -8.5 G
10/11/09 Sun HOU 28 - 21 W -4 -6 W +1 52.0 50.5 U -1.5 G
10/18/09 Sun @SEA 27 - 3 W +2.5 +3 W +27 46.5 46.0 U -16.0 T
10/25/09 Sun @NYG 24 - 17 W +6.5 +7.5 W +14.5 48.0 47.0 U -6.0 G
11/01/09 Sun CAR 21 - 34 L -7.5 -10 L -23 45.0 42.0 O +13.0 G
11/08/09 Sun @CHI 41 - 21 W +3 +2 W +22 45.5 44.5 O +17.5 G
11/15/09 Sun SEA 31 - 20 W -7.5 -8.5 W +2.5 48.0 46.5 O + 4.5 G
11/22/09 Sun @STL 21 - 13 W -7 -9 L -1 46.5 47.0 U -13.0 T
11/29/09 Sun @TEN 17 - 20 L -1 +3 L 0 48.0 44.5 U -7.5 G
12/06/09 Sun MIN 30 - 17 W +4.5 +3.5 W +16.5 48.0 48.5 U -1.5 G
12/14/09 Mon @SF 9 - 24 L -1 -4 L -19 44.5 44.5 U -11.5 G
12/20/09 Sun @DET 31 - 24 W -11.5 -14 L -7 48.5 46.5 O + 8.5 T
12/27/09 Sun STL 31 - 10 W -14 -16.5 W +4.5 45.0 43.5 U -2.5 G
01/03/10 Sun GB 7 - 33 L -3 -3 L -29 43.5 41.5 U -1.5 G
01/10/10 Sun GB 51 - 45 W -3 +2.5 W +8.5 48.5 48.5 O +47.5 G


NEW ORLEANS
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/13/09 Sun DET 45 - 27 W -11.5 -14 W +4 50.0 49.5 O +22.5 T
09/20/09 Sun @PHI 48 - 22 W +0 -3 W +23 46.0 46.0 O +24.0 T
09/27/09 Sun @BUF 27 - 7 W -3 -6 W +14 51.5 51.0 U -17.0 T
10/04/09 Sun NYJ 24 - 10 W -4.5 -7.5 W +6.5 47.5 46.5 U -12.5 T
10/18/09 Sun NYG 48 - 27 W -3 -3 W +18 49.0 47.5 O +27.5 T
10/25/09 Sun @MIA 46 - 34 W -7 -6.5 W +5.5 48.0 47.5 O +32.5 G
11/02/09 Mon ATL 35 - 27 W -7.5 -11 L -3 53.0 55.5 O + 6.5 T
11/08/09 Sun CAR 30 - 20 W -14.5 -11.5 L -1.5 51.0 51.5 U -1.5 T
11/15/09 Sun @STL 28 - 23 W -13.5 -14 L -9 48.0 50.5 O + 0.5 T
11/22/09 Sun @TB 38 - 7 W -13 -10.5 W +20.5 50.0 51.0 U -6.0 G
11/30/09 Mon NE 38 - 17 W -3 -2 W +19 54.5 57.0 U -2.0 T
12/06/09 Sun @WAS 33 - 30 W -7.5 -9 L -6 47.0 47.0 O +16.0 G
12/13/09 Sun @ATL 26 - 23 W -9.5 -10 L -7 51.0 50.5 U -1.5 T
12/19/09 Sat DAL 17 - 24 L -7.5 -7.5 L -14.5 54.5 53.5 U -12.5 T
12/27/09 Sun TB 17 - 20 L -14 -14 L -17 49.5 49.0 U -12.0 T
01/03/10 Sun @CAR 10 - 23 L +7 +10 L -3 42.5 41.0 U -8.0 G



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
12/16/07 Sun ARI 24 NO 31 -4.5 -4.0 NO +3 48.0 49.5 O +-5.5 T





STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
ARI (off) 25.1 20 25 112 4.5 34 24 0.7 235 6.9 347 0.8 1.6 .00
NO (def) 21.5 20 28 129 4.6 35 19 0.5 228 6.5 357 1.8 0.8 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
ARI (def) 17.4 16 23 115 5.0 38 20 0.5 223 5.9 338 1.4 0.8 .00
NO (off) 31.8 22 28 122 4.4 34 25 0.7 302 8.9 424 0.5 1.4 .00
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
ARI (off) 25.1 20 23 97 4.2 37 25 0.7 259 7.0 356 1.1 1.1 .00
NO (def) 21.3 19 27 123 4.6 36 21 0.6 235 6.5 358 1.6 0.8 .00
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM FGP
ARI (def) 21.8 19 25 111 4.4 37 22 0.6 244 6.6 355 1.3 0.6 .00
NO (off) 31.9 22 29 132 4.6 34 24 0.7 272 8.0 404 0.8 1.0 .00



SCORING AVERAGES:

ARIZONA (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.5 8.9 15.4 5.1 4.6 0.0 9.7
POINTS ALLOWED 3.3 3.4 6.7 4.3 6.5 0.0 10.8



NEW ORLEANS (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.9 12.8 19.7 4.8 7.4 0.0 12.2
POINTS ALLOWED 6.9 4.5 11.4 6.0 3.8 0.4 10.2



ARIZONA (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 5.5 8.2 13.7 5.6 5.4 0.4 11.4
POINTS ALLOWED 3.9 6.5 10.4 4.5 6.8 0.0 11.3



NEW ORLEANS (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 5.3 11.0 16.3 6.7 8.7 0.2 15.6
POINTS ALLOWED 6.6 5.8 12.4 5.7 3.0 0.2 8.9



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
ARIZONA 54 4.0
NEW ORLEANS 53.5 -3.0
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 55 1.5 under

 

[Lumi]

NFL Playoff Bye Week no longer a big advantage

NFL Playoff Bye Week no longer a big advantage

NFL Playoff Bye Week no longer a big advantage

The consensus public opinion of last week's NFL wild-card games seemed to be that it was a pretty boring round until the Packers-Cardinals game later on Sunday afternoon.

I, for one, wasn't compelled to turn off any of the games. Of course, I admit to being an NFL nut who sees a 10-7 defensive battle as intriguing as a 51-45 overtime thriller.

After all, of the four games, three were won outright by the underdog. If that doesn't scream drama, I don't know what does. The Jets knocked off the Bengals, 24-14, as a 2 1/2-point underdog, and then after the Cowboys routed the Eagles, 34-14, to win and easily cover the 3 1/2-point spread, the Ravens ran over the Patriots, 33-14, as 3 1/2-point dogs and the Cardinals closed as 3-point home dogs before prevailing 51-45 in overtime.

So, while faves went 1-3 both straight-up and against the spread, the teams the oddsmakers made the favorites were 2-2. That was also the mark of the home teams, which is relevant as we look at this week's divisional playoffs because the four home teams all received byes last week. The decreasing impact of home-field advantage is something I wrote about last week. Road teams actually went 136-114-6 against the spread during the regular season. Home-field advantage is something all teams strive for in the playoffs but it hasn't been as beneficial as it used to be.

In the playoffs for the 1990-1999 seasons, teams that received the first-round bye went 24-15-1 against the spread, better than 60 percent. It didn't matter how high the oddsmakers made the spreads, those teams in the 1990s dominated off the week of rest. The wild-card round was seen as a formality where teams got their taste of the playoffs and then got knocked out the next week (bye teams were 33-7 straight up during that stretch, better than 80 percent).

Since then, however, those bye teams are 15-20-1 (43 percent). We have seen wild-card teams not only cover the spreads in those games but routinely start making it to the league championship games and even the Super Bowl. So, let's not be too surprised if we see at least two underdogs at least cover the spread this week or win the games outright - and don't call the games boring if they do so in dominating fashion.

Back to the betting board

I went 3-1 with my plays in the wild-card matches last week as I correctly called the Jets' outright upset of the Bengals on Saturday afternoon, was totally wrong with the Eagles vs. the Cowboys on Saturday night, but then bounced back with the over in the Ravens-Patriots game and the Cardinals beating the Packers in overtime. Here's hoping I can repeat with at least a 3-1 mark again this week.

Ravens +6 1/2 vs. Colts

This is the nightcap Saturday, but I'm putting it first because it's the one where I have the strongest opinion. I have gone on record calling this 14-2 Colts' team a fraud as they went through the regular season pulling out close games, including many in which they were outplayed. They won only seven games this season by more than this 6 1/2-point spread and only one of those was against a team that made the playoffs (the Cardinals way back in Week 3). Obviously I'm in the minority opinion on this Colts' team, but that's how I see it. The Ravens played them toe-to-toe in Week 10 before losing 17-15. The Ravens had a chance to win in the closing minutes as they were in the red zone until Joe Flacco threw an ill-advised pass over the middle that was intercepted. The Ravens have the running game to go through the Colts' porous run defense just like they did last week in beating the Patriots, and have the physical defense to put pressure on Peyton Manning and an Indy offense that hasn't been playing full-speed for nearly a month.

Play: Ravens for 2 units.

Cardinals +7 vs. Saints

Anyone who has followed me has to know I like the Cardinals. They have cashed against the spread for me in their last five playoff games and they came through last week when it seemed the whole world was betting against us. The Saints are like the Colts in that they ended the regular season on a losing streak, but they were also struggling even before resting their starters. They have lost five straight games vs. the spread and haven't covered since the Week 12 Monday night win over the Patriots.

Play: Cardinals for 1 unit.

Cowboys-Vikings Under 46 points

Both offenses certainly have the ability to put points on the board, but I think it's the defenses that step up in this contest on Sunday. The Cowboys' defense had its breakout game in shutting down the Saints in Week 15, and then finished the regular season with back-to-back shutouts before handling the Eagles last week. I bet this Under 48 last Saturday night when the line first went up, but I think it's still playable.

Play: Under 46 points for 1 unit.

Jets-Chargers Under 42 1/2 points

People might be calling Sunday's games boring if I have my way as I also see this going under the total. The Jets' defense, No. 1 in points allowed, speaks for itself and should be able to contain the Chargers. The Jets will rely on the run and continue to try and let Mark Sanchez do just enough to win, so this should lead to a tight, low-scoring game.

Play: Under 42 1/2 points for 1 unit.

Last week playoff record: 3-1 for a net profit of 1.9 units (based on risking 1.1 units to win 1). Season record: 32-25, including 2-2 on 2-unit plays, for a net profit of 4.3 units.

 

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Arizona at New Orleans Betting Preview

Arizona at New Orleans Betting Preview

Arizona at New Orleans Betting Preview

After surviving Green Bay in the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history, the defending NFC champion Cardinals will head to The Big Easy. This first divisional playoff game has all the makings of spectacular offensive display, with two of the game's most dynamic offenses and skilled quarterbacks going head-to-head.

Arizona (11-6, 9-7 ATS) is coming off an amazing offensive game. Led by Kurt Warner completing 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and five touchdowns, the Cardinals were able to survive against Green Bay. This was the second time the future Hall of Famer had more touchdown then incompletions (in 1999 he was 20 for 23 with five TD passes against San Francisco when playing with St. Louis) in his career.

The Cardinals are the most offbeat team in the NFL that wins division titles. When coach Ken Whistenhunt?s squad has nothing to play for, they resemble many of the Cardinals teams of the past, playing inept football. While most experts and former football players say no team can just ?flip the switch? and play at their peak, Arizona has confounded everyone the last two years and done just that in registering 8-1 ATS record when playing against a top-level team with win percentage of 75 percent or higher.

In the past, Arizona was among the most meager of traveling teams, however they are 7-2 and 5-3-1 ATS in last nine road trips, allowing 17 points per contest. Their defense was shredded last week by Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, but they are 6-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards play in their previous game over the last two seasons.

New Orleans (13-3, 8-8 ATS) after winning their first 13 games of the season, lost their last three and have a similar curiosity factor as Conan O?Brien as people want to see what the Saints will do next. Drew Brees was on his way to MVP season, but trailed off in the second half as opposing teams looked to take away the run and force New Orleans into more obvious passing situations and blitzed Brees more accordingly.

Historically, the Saints haven?t handled adversity well with 8-19 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive losses against the spread. Coach Sean Payton believes this team is better prepared for this spot, since they are 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at the Super Dome the last two seasons and has scored 32.1 points per game.

New Orleans has to be encouraged going against the Cardinals defense, since their receivers are at least as deep and talented as Green Bay?s and Arizona has weaknesses beyond its main three players in the secondary. The Saints big play offense is 15-4 ATS when they gain eight or more net passing yards per attempt.

Bookmaker.com installed New Orleans as a touchdown favorite with total of 57 points, the highest such playoff figure dating back to at least 1988. Teams that have lost their last two games against the spread during the regular season are 13-5 ATS this round (this will include the Colts also) and the Saints are 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 UNDER at home after one or more spread losses.

Arizona is one two teams this weekend that drew the short straw, having to play a rested team on just six days rest and loses even more time playing the latter game last week and having to travel East. Look for the Cardinals to test the Saints soft run defense with Beanie Wells to open up the passing game. Expect Warner to try and hit big play early to help build team confidence. The Cards secondary has to have better idea scheme-wise and take correct angles for tackling purposes. The defensive line can?t let Brees stand in the pocket, otherwise these birds are cooked. Arizona is 6-0 ATS as an underdog and 8-2 UNDER after one or more wins this season.

New Orleans has to do what Arizona did last week, start fast and hope defense can hold up. Their offense turned uncharacteristically sluggish in November and December, especially early in games and this team needs a shot of confidence from the get-go. Coach Payton has to get Arizona defense off-balance like last week and keep them guessing. With Saints expected to be as healthy as they?ve been in a month, Reggie Bush and Robert Meachem are real keys against team that is 4-1 and 5-0 ATS in the postseason since last year.

Power Line ? New Orleans by 8
? New Orleans covers

 

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NFL Playoff Preview - Arizona (11-6) at New Orleans (13-3)

NFL Playoff Preview - Arizona (11-6) at New Orleans (13-3)

NFL Playoff Preview - Arizona (11-6) at New Orleans (13-3)

After coming out on top in the highest-scoring postseason game in NFL history last weekend, the Arizona Cardinals now have to prepare themselves for another potential shootout when the defending conference champions head to the Louisiana Superdome this Saturday to take on the high- powered New Orleans Saints in a NFC Divisional Playoff that should provide plenty of thrills.

Arizona kept alive its quest to become the NFC's first repeat Super Bowl representative in 12 years by outlasting the Green Bay Packers in an epic 51-45 overtime classic during last Sunday's Wild Card round. Ironically, a game which produced a combined 1,024 yards of offense and 62 first downs was decided on a defensive play, with Cardinals nickel back Michael Adams forcing a fumble on a sack of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and Karlos Dansby returning the loose ball 17 yards for the winning points.

Dansby's score helped atone for an otherwise shaky performance from a defense that surrendered 403 net passing yards and four touchdowns through the air and allowed Green Bay to reach the end zone on five consecutive second-half drives to erase a 31-10 deficit early in the third quarter.

The Cardinals will need to shore up that area in order to advance again this week, as New Orleans topped the NFL in both points (510) and total offense (403.8 ppg) en route to a sensational 13-3 record that established a franchise best for wins in a season and earned the Saints their first-ever No. 1 seed in the NFC's postseason tournament.

New Orleans won't be heading into the playoffs with a whole lot of momentum, though, after losing its final three contests following a 13-0 start. Two of those defeats took place in the Superdome, including a shocking 20-17 overtime setback to three-win Tampa Bay in the second-to-last regular-season game.

The Saints will also be trying to reverse a dubious playoff history, with the long-suffering club having dropped six of eight lifetime outings in the second season.

If New Orleans needs to restore any lost confidence, it can look to the 2008 Cardinals as a source of motivation. Arizona limped into last year's NFC Playoffs with losses in four of its last six regular-season tilts, but bounced back to string together three straight postseason wins to claim the conference title.

An opportunistic defense that forced a difference-making 12 turnovers over those three wins played a major part in the Cardinals' surge to the Super Bowl, as did the outstanding play under center from ultra-clutch quarterback Kurt Warner. The two-time NFL MVP was on top of his game once again in last week's ousting of the Packers, piling up 379 passing yards and five touchdowns without an interception while connecting on an astounding 29-of-33 attempts.

Warner is now 9-3 all-time as a starter in the playoffs, and his 312.3 passing yards per game and 66.5 percent completion percentage are both the best marks in league annals for the postseason. The 38-year-old's 104.6 quarterback rating over those 12 games ranks second in NFL history, trailing only Hall of Famer Bart Starr.

New Orleans possesses an accomplished gunslinger of its own in Drew Brees, who established a league single-season record with a 70.6 completion percentage in delivering a fourth straight 4,000-yard campaign. The four-time Pro Bowl selection's 92.7 postseason passer rating is second only to Warner among active players, although his teams haven't garnered the same amount of success as those of his counterpart.

Brees is 1-2 in the playoffs, with the lone victory coming in the Divisional round of the Saints' most recent postseason appearance in 2006. New Orleans reached its only NFC Championship Game that season, coming out on the short end of a 39-14 decision to Chicago.

Arizona is seeking to become the first repeat NFC champion since Green Bay did so in 1995 and 1996.

SERIES HISTORY

The Cardinals hold a 13-12 edge in their all-time regular series with the Saints, but were 31-24 road losers when the teams last met, in Week 15 of the 2007 regular season. Arizona won the previous meeting, a 34-10 victory at Sun Devil Stadium in 2004, and the Cardinals have won seven of the last 10 overall. Arizona is 0-2 at the Superdome since last winning there in 1996.

The Saints' Sean Payton is 1-0 against both the Cardinals and head coach Ken Whisenhunt.

WHEN THE CARDINALS HAVE THE BALL

Even though Arizona has sported one of football's most feared passing offenses over the past few years, Whisenhunt is still a run-first coach at heart, and it wouldn't be surprising if his team opts to attack a New Orleans defense that really struggled against the rush down the stretch via the ground. The Cardinals posted a healthy 156 rushing yards on a strong Green Bay stop unit last weekend, with talented rookie Beanie Wells (793 rushing yards, 7 TD, 12 receptions) coming through with 91 yards on only 14 carries. Arizona is a perfect 8-0 this season when running for 100 yards or more. That doesn't mean the team will abandon its potent aerial assault, however, especially with premier players such as Warner (3753 passing yards, 26 TD, 14 INT) and star wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald (97 receptions, 1092 yards, 13 TD) at its disposal. Like his quarterback, Fitzgerald has earned a reputation as an elite playoff performer, having recorded an eye-opening nine touchdown catches in five career postseason games after hauling in two of Warner's five scoring strikes last Sunday. The sure-handed wideout has averaged over 125 receiving yards over that stretch as well. Arizona was without three-time Pro Bowler Anquan Boldin (84 receptions, 1024 yards, 4 TD) against Green Bay due to a high left ankle sprain that has Fitzgerald's running mate questionable to play on Saturday, but was able to compensate for his absence with outstanding games from the reserve corps. Usual No. 3 receiver Steve Breaston (55 receptions, 3 TD) stepped up with a career-best 125 yards and a touchdown on seven catches, while seldom-used sophomore Early Doucet (17 receptions, 1 TD) had 77 yards on six grabs along with two big first-half scores.

The Saints used their well-timed week off to attempt to repair a leaky defense that was gashed for an average of 166.3 rushing yards over the course of the club's three season-ending losses. New Orleans also gave up over 235 yards per week through the air (26th overall) during the 16-game schedule, but that rather high number can be at least partially attributed to teams being forced to throw while playing from behind. The Saints finished third in both pass efficiency defense and interceptions (26) behind a secondary that contains a superb playmaker in veteran free safety Darren Sharper (71 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 15 PD), who set an NFL single-year record with 376 return yards on his nine picks that tied for the league lead. The backfield will be at full strength for the playoffs as well now that its two best cornerbacks, Jabari Greer (44 tackles, 2 INT, 13 PD) and Tracy Porter (57 tackles, 4 INT, 12 PD) have returned from injuries that caused the duo to miss a combined 11 games. The Cardinals must also account for end Will Smith (49 tackles, 1 INT), whose 13 sacks in 2009 were the second-most in the NFC, while Bobby McCray (12 tackles, 1.5 sacks) notched double-digits in that category with Jacksonville a few years back.

WHEN THE SAINTS HAVE THE BALL

Moving the football and lighting up the scoreboard have rarely been problems for a New Orleans offense that generated 30 points or more nine times this season and led the NFL in total yards for the third time in the past four years. It all starts with Brees (4388 passing yards, 34 TD, 11 INT), whose exceptional accuracy and leadership skills are eclipsed only by his amazing track record at the Superdome. The standout triggerman had a sensational 20- to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and completed over 73 percent of his throws in the Saints' eight home tests of 2009. Brees isn't solely responsible for his team's prolific production, however. With three-time 1,000-yard receiver Marques Colston (70 receptions, 9 TD), emerging star Robert Meachem (45 receptions, 9 TD) and big-play threat Devery Henderson (51 receptions, 2 TD) all out wide, not to mention a pair of terrific pass-catching running backs in Reggie Bush (390 rushing yards, 47 receptions, 8 total TD) and Pierre Thomas (793 rushing yards, 39 receptions, 8 total TD), New Orleans doesn't lack weapons when it airs it out. And don't forget tight end and four-time Pro Bowl participant Jeremy Shockey (48 receptions, 3 TD) and slotman Lance Moore (14 receptions, 2 TD), who accumulated 79 catches and 10 touchdowns a year ago. Both are now healthy after sitting out much of the latter portion of this season with injuries. The Saints can run the ball effectively as well, placing sixth overall with an average of 131.6 yards per game on the ground. Thomas will get the bulk of the ball-carrying duties provided he's able to tolerate a few broken ribs, and most of those attempts figure to come behind a road- grading right side of the line consisting of Pro Bowlers Jahri Evans and Jon Stinchcomb.

The Cardinals gave up plenty of yards and points in last week's wild win over Green Bay, but the unit also had a few big moments that were crucial to the final outcome. Adams' game-changing sack of Rodgers was Arizona's fifth of the day, while a forced fumble by Dansby (109 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and a key interception from Pro Bowl cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (50 tackles, 6 INT, 25 PD) were both turned into early touchdowns by the offense. Veteran end/linebacker hybrid Bertrand Berry (10 tackles, 6 sacks), who came up with two sacks last Sunday, and linemen Darnell Dockett (51 tackles, 7 sacks) and Calais Campbell (48 tackles, 7 sacks) will need to keep the heat on Brees this week in order to protect a secondary that showed more than its share of holes against the Packers. Rodgers-Cromartie is a lock-down defender on one side, but both Adams (40 tackles, 1 INT) and cornerback Bryant McFadden (69 tackles, 15 PD) will have to rebound from rough games to give the Cards their best chance of advancement. The team has one injury concern along the front seven, as inside linebacker Gerald Hayes (62 tackles) spent part of this week's practice in a walking boot after spraining an ankle in the Wild Card round, and could be a game-time decision.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Arizona kicker Neil Rackers nearly turned out to be the goat of last Sunday's matchup after badly shanking what would have been a game-ending 34-yard field goal try on the final play of regulation. The 10-year pro was much more reliable in the regular season, when he converted 16-of-17 three-point attempts. New Orleans' Garrett Hartley is a less-proven commodity, having attempted only 24 field goals in his two seasons. He went 9-of-11 in that area upon taking over in December, but his long was only 38 yards.

The Saints also have a young punter in rookie Thomas Morstead, but the 23- year-old proved his worth by recording a solid 43.6 yard average and finishing among the NFL leaders with 26 touchbacks while handling kickoffs. He still takes a back seat to the Cards' Ben Graham, who set a team season record by averaging 47 yards per punt and placed a league-best 42 kicks within the opponent's 20-yard line.

Both teams possess fine kick returners, with the Saints' Courtney Roby ranking fifth in the league with a 27.1 average and Arizona rookie LaRod Stephens- Howling (24.2 avg.) making an impact in that department as well. Each had a touchdown during the course of the year. Neither the Cardinals' Breaston (6.7 avg.) nor New Orleans' Bush (4.8 avg.) were particularly good taking back punts, although both have had success there in the past.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

It's going to be hard to top the excitement created in Arizona's last game, but this all-important showdown shouldn't lack for fireworks with a pair of explosive offenses directed by top-notch quarterbacks and two defenses that have shown to be vulnerable at times during this season. In what should be a most competitive contest between two quality teams that appear to be evenly matched, the Cardinals' pedigree could wind up being the x-factor. Arizona has proven time and time again to have a knack for rising to the occasion when the stakes are at their highest, and this is a team that likely won't be intimidated by the hostile surroundings of the Superdome. The problems the Saints displayed on defense during the stretch run are legitimate concerns as well, and that could prevent what's been a storybook season from having a fairy-tale ending.

Predicted Outcome: Cardinals 27, Saints 24

 

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NFL Matchup - Arizona at New Orleans

Arizona Cardinals (11-6) at New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Date: Saturday, January 16th
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. (et)
Site: Louisiana Superdome (68,000) -- New Orleans, Louisiana
Surface: Sportexe Momentum
Home Record: Arizona 5-4; New Orleans 6-2
Away Record: Arizona 6-2; New Orleans 7-1
Versus N-F-C: Arizona 9-4; New Orleans 9-3
Versus N-F-C South: Arizona 0-1
Versus N-F-C West: New Orleans 1-0
Versus Playoff Teams: Arizona 2-2; New Orleans 3-1
Current Win/Loss Streak: Arizona 1W (Playoffs); New Orleans 3L
Current Road Win/Loss Streak: Arizona 1W
Current Home Win/Loss Streak: New Orleans 2L
Television: FOX
Announcers: Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa
Playoff Record: Arizona 6-6; New Orleans 2-6
All-Time Series: Arizona (13-12)
Last Meeting: December 16, 2007 (New Orleans, 31-24 at New Orleans)
Series Streak: New Orleans has won two of the last three meetings.

Season Schedule/Results
Arizona Cardinals
Sep 13 - L vs. San Francisco, 16-20
Sep 20 - W at Jacksonville, 31-17
Sep 27 - L vs. Indianapolis, 10-31
Oct 4 - Open
Oct 11 - W vs. Houston, 28-21
Oct 18 - W at Seattle, 27-3
Oct 25 - W at NY Giants, 24-17
Nov 1 - L vs. Carolina, 21-34
Nov 8 - W at Chicago, 41-21
Nov 15 - W vs. Seattle, 31-20
Nov 22 - W at St. Louis, 21-13
Nov 29 - L at Tennessee, 17-20
Dec 6 - W vs. Minnesota, 30-17
Dec 14 - L at San Francisco, 9-24
Dec 20 - W at Detroit, 31-24
Dec 27 - W vs. St. Louis, 31-10
Jan 3 - L vs. Green Bay, 7-33
Jan 10 - W vs. Green Bay, 51-45 (OT) (NFC Wild Card Game)
Jan 16 - at New Orleans, 4:30 PM (NFC Divisional Playoff)
New Orleans Saints
Sep 13 - W vs. Detroit, 45-27
Sep 20 - W at Philadelphia, 48-22
Sep 27 - W at Buffalo, 27-7
Oct 4 - W vs. NY Jets, 24-10
Oct 11 - Open
Oct 18 - W vs. NY Giants, 48-27
Oct 25 - W at Miami, 46-34
Nov 2 - W vs. Atlanta, 35-27
Nov 8 - W vs. Carolina, 30-20
Nov 15 - W at St. Louis, 28-23
Nov 22 - W at Tampa Bay, 38-7
Nov 30 - W vs. New England, 38-17
Dec 6 - W at Washington, 33-30 (OT)
Dec 13 - W at Atlanta, 26-23
Dec 19 - L vs. Dallas, 17-24
Dec 27 - L vs. Tampa Bay, 17-20 (OT)
Jan 3 - L at Carolina, 10-23
Jan 16 - vs. Arizona, 4:30 PM (NFC Divisional Playoff)

 

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POUNDING IT OUT: Peterson should carry Vikings

POUNDING IT OUT: Peterson should carry Vikings

POUNDING IT OUT: Peterson should carry Vikings

Minnesota needs ground game to top Dallas



Opinions on the NFL playoffs were more or less split down the middle all week, as the wagering lines barely moved at Las Vegas sports books. The games are generating good two-way action.

But one game -- and the one that could be the best of the weekend -- has had a slight line differential. The first game of today's doubleheader features a public team that's on a roll and a polarizing individual in Brett Favre. Here's a breakdown of the matchups:

? Dallas at Minnesota (-3): The line has pinballed on and off the key number of 3 throughout the week. Sharp money surfaced under the total, which has dropped to 46.

The Cowboys deserve all the credit in the world for soldiering through a brutal December schedule to win the NFC East. They carried that momentum into the playoffs and dominated the Philadelphia Eagles last weekend.

The Dallas defense has been dominant. Offensively, the Cowboys have found a beautiful balance of run and pass, with confident quarterback Tony Romo directing his team with precision.

The Vikings are intriguing. Unlike several teams, they had something to play for in the final week of the regular season and dismantled a New York Giants team that had long since run for the bus. Starting the season 10-1, Minnesota finished 12-4.

There was the three-week soap opera with Favre and coach Brad Childress that wouldn't go away. That wasn't the reason for the Vikings' December swoon. This team has lost its identity.

Minnesota is most effective when Adrian Peterson touches the ball 25 times. When he's pounding out yardage and breaking the occasional big run, Favre gets the desired matchups in the passing game. Peterson has not recorded a 100-yard rushing game in the past seven games. That's unthinkable.

On Nov. 15 against lowly Detroit, Peterson rushed for 133 yards. In subsequent losses to Arizona and Carolina, he carried the ball only 13 and 12 times. Get the picture?

Sure, Favre's amazing for an old guy, but if the Vikings are going to make a run, Peterson, not No. 4, is their meal ticket.

The Metrodome will be raucous, to say the least, and that could make life difficult for the Cowboys. If Minnesota's monster defensive tackles, Pat Williams and Kevin Williams, plug up the middle to contain running backs Marion Barber and Felix Jones, the Vikings' relentless defensive end, Jared Allen, will wreak havoc on Romo.

I'm anticipating the Vikings will approach this game with a modicum of common sense and pound the football on the ground. On that premise, I'm inclined to lay 21/2 points (the best number available at Station Casinos) and side with Minnesota.

? New York Jets at San Diego (-7): The Jets took plenty of grief because they ran into Indianapolis and Cincinnati in the final two weeks of the season, with both opponents caring little about the outcome.

New York coach Rex Ryan has instilled confidence in the Jets, who stuck their toe in the playoff pool and made the most of the opportunity last week. Were the Jets that good, or were the Bengals phony? The acid test comes today.

Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez was efficient in his playoff debut, going 12 of 15 for 182 yards and one touchdown. He probably will be called on to do more today. Sanchez used a controlled passing attack against Cincinnati, but he will have to stretch the field against the Chargers.

San Diego seemed destined for failure in September, stumbling to a 2-3 start, as division rival Denver started 6-0. No problem. The Chargers won out, recording an 11-game winning streak.

Philip Rivers has been spectacular, and his tall, talented receiving targets give opponents fits. They will face a severe challenge against the Jets' top-ranked defense that has been able to shut down marquee receivers, limiting opponents to 153 yards passing per game.

Specifically, cornerback Darrelle Revis has put the clamps on the opponents' best wideout, which in this case in Vincent Jackson.

Early last week, San Diego was a 9-point favorite at some books. That ship has sailed. The Jets were attractive with the big spot, but not so much now on a key number.

Hence, I've focused on the total and will count on the Jets defense to force the Chargers into a field-goal game. Sanchez didn't turn the ball over last week, but that may change. The main concern is that turnovers could lead to a short field and the game could open up.

The Jets can run the ball with authority, and their goal will be to shorten the game. The play is under 421/2.

 

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BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES

BETWEEN THE LINES

THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE COWBOYS-VIKINGS UNDER (45)

? The Cowboys give up an average of 15.5 points a game, and the Vikings give up 19.5.

? The Vikings will try to feature running back Adrian Peterson, which will run the clock and shorten the game.

? Four of the past five games the Cowboys have played have gone under the total, and six of the Vikings' past eight games have gone under.

THREE REASONS TO LIKE THE CHARGERS (-7) OVER THE JETS

? The Jets are offensively challenged. They cannot afford to get in a shootout with the Chargers.

? San Diego has too many weapons and poses too many bad matchups for the Jets.

? Norv Turner gets a lot of grief, but the Chargers coach will have some surprises for the Jets. Watch for a few gadget plays.

SATURDAY: 1-1

SEASON: 16-22-2

 

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Dallas at Minnesota Betting Preview

Dallas at Minnesota Betting Preview

Dallas at Minnesota Betting Preview

Earlier in the season, Minnesota was making an argument they were NFC?s best team. Many football experts are now saying that title belongs to Dallas. That makes for an interesting backdrop for the teams? Sunday?s divisional playoff.

After a 10-1 start, the Vikings (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS) closed 2-3 SU and ATS, with each loss suffered away from home. That won?t be an issue this time around, playing in the pandemonium of the Metrodome where they were 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS, winning by 17.2 points a game.

Dallas (12-5, 10-7 ATS) has performed an exorcism of sorts, ending December and late season failures with four wins and covers in a row and winning a playoff game, ending unlucky 13-year drought. This has been especially important for coach Wade Phillips and Tony Romo, the two individuals most associated with the recent lack of success.

When the Minnesota front office stooped to modestly embarrassing levels to get the quarterback they wanted to win the division and hopefully lead them to a Super Bowl, this is what they envisioned to this point. Yes, Brett Favre?s ego could fill all 10,000 lakes in the state of Minnesota, but he has held up his part of the bargain and the Vikings as a team hope to complete the task.

The Dallas defense has been dominating holding opponents to just 54.8 yards per game rushing in their last five contests. This places the burden on the Minnesota offensive line to create holes for Adrian Peterson to nick the Cowboys defense. If Peterson has running lanes, this opens up the play-action passing game and Favre can attack Dallas both short and long.

Favre has a lot of answers to bludgeon opposing teams. Throwing deep to Sidney Rice, short and medium to TE Visanthe Shiancoe and underneath to Percy Harvin with his game-changing explosiveness. Two weeks ago the full arsenal was on display against the Giants and the Vikes are 5-1 ATS after throwing for 250 or more yards. All of this is rendered useless if DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are hanging all over No.4 in purple.

The Dallas defense has had Tim Lincecum stuff the last four weeks, pitching two shutouts and conceding a mere 31 points. Besides the perimeter pressure, the Cowboys secondary has covered receivers like TMZ on Tiger Woods and nose tackle Jay Ratliff has run roughshod on the middle of opposing offenses. Dallas has covered last five contests after permitting 90 or less yards rushing.

Minnesota has not scored less than 27 points at its indoor home, while the Cowboys have only permitted the Giants to break 21-point barrier, which seems something has to give with Sportsbook.com having total of 45.5. Besides limiting scoring, Dallas has to limit Peterson, keeping his runs short and not allowing him to convert on third downs. A.P. lost a league high six fumbles; the Cowboys have to attack him and the ball, since they are 6-18 ATS in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points.

Minnesota is 30-16 ATS vs. excellent ball control teams, who keep the pigskin for 32 or more minutes a game. Their massive defensive tackles helped allow just 87 yards rushing (compared to opponents average of 113) and with Felix Jones providing home run potential out of the backfield, keeping the Cowboys ground attack in check is imperative. Antoine Winfield is not 100 percent, leaving others to corral Miles Austin, who is the big play threat the Cowboys need. This is where DE Jared Allen has to conquer Flozell Adams and make Romo make poor decisions.

The Vikings are well-rested and have more of the onus on them, being at home as 2.5-point favorites and having to fulfill preseason expectations against a hot team. Minnesota is 4-14-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points in last game and has not covered last four contests as field goal or less favorite. Dallas isn?t the safest wager either, 5-9 ATS dressed as dogs in last 14 tries and 1-4 ATS as playoff club.

Oddsmakers actually opened this game at 48 and it has been drifting downward for apparently very good reason. The Cowboys are 11-1 UNDER on the road after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half (average score 33.7 total points) and the Vikings are 8-1 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more. (Average score 41 total points)

Power Line ? Dallas by 1
? Dallas covers

 

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Preview: Cowboys (11-5) at Vikings (12-4)

Preview: Cowboys (11-5) at Vikings (12-4)

Preview: Cowboys (11-5) at Vikings (12-4)


Date: January 17, 2010 1:00 PM EDT

Fresh off four straight wins overall and their first playoff victory in 13 years, the Dallas Cowboys are rolling.

The Minnesota Vikings haven't taken the field in two weeks - and that may play right into the hands of their grizzled, 40-year-old quarterback.

Brett Favre and the Vikings will aim to use their first-round bye to their advantage Sunday when they host quarterback Tony Romo and the surging Cowboys in an NFC divisional playoff matchup.

After changing his mind about retirement for the second straight offseason, Favre showed he's still among the game's top quarterbacks while leading Minnesota to a 10-1 start. The Vikings then stumbled, losing three of their next four and bringing to mind Favre's 2008, when he helped the New York Jets open 8-3 before wearing down late in the season and missing the playoffs after finishing 9-7.



This time, though, Favre concluded the regular season with a powerful statement, going 25 of 31 for 316 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions as the Vikings routed the New York Giants 44-7 to finish with a 12-4 record, the NFC's second seed and a first-round bye.

That could benefit not just the 19-year veteran quarterback - who spent the week off with his family in Mississippi - but the entire Minnesota team after the long grind of a 16-game season.

"I can see a spunkiness,' coach Brad Childress said after his team reconvened this week, "which is what you want this time of year. Guys that are bright-eyed, mentally and physically.'

Favre will now try to end his struggles against Dallas coach Wade Phillips, who was able to devise schemes to defeat the quarterback both in a 2007 matchup and in a playoff contest following the 2002 season, when he was Atlanta's defensive coordinator.

Phillips, though, knows beating Favre again won't be easy.

"He's had so many big games and won so many big games, put the team on his back so many times,' Phillips said of Favre, who threw for 33 TDs and seven interceptions in his first season with the Vikings. "He just has great experience, and everybody has seen what a great player he is. And he's come back and played probably just as well as he ever played this year. So he's in top form.'

So is the Cowboys' offense. Dallas has outscored the opposition 99-31 during its four-game winning streak, with 12 touchdowns in that span scored by three running backs and five receivers.

"A lot of guys can participate and a lot of guys can play their role and a lot of guys can come through for you,' Phillips said. "That makes a difference.'

Romo is also making a difference. The fourth-year starter is showing signs of maturity, completing 66.7 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and a 100.0 rating during the winning streak. Romo credits the wealth of offensive options at his disposal for the recent success.

"It's problematic when all of the sudden you see Patrick Crayton catching balls on third down, then you see Tashard Choice getting a first down, then you see Roy (Williams),' Romo said. "It's tough, and that's part of what you try to do as an offense.

"If people want to double Jason (Witten) or Miles (Austin), we just kind of read the defense. We don't say 'I'm throwing it to Miles on this play.' It's allowed us to execute week in and week out.'

Dallas' deep corps of running backs helps take pressure off Romo. A knee injury limited starter Marion Barber to three carries in last week's 34-14 opening-round victory over Philadelphia, but Choice and Felix Jones picked up the slack by combining for 190 yards on 30 carries, including a 73-yard score by Jones.

The victory snapped a six-game playoff losing streak for the Cowboys, who hadn't won in the postseason since a 40-15 home victory over the Vikings on Dec. 28, 1996.

Barber, who has run for a team-leading 932 yards, returned to practice Thursday and is probable to play in his home state for the first time as a pro. A healthy backfield of Barber - who played college ball in the Metrodome for Minnesota - Jones and Choice may be imposing, but they won't intimidate a veteran defensive front that held nine opponents below 100 yards on the ground in the regular season.

"They have to come here and do it. They ran on Philly, but that's Philly,' defensive tackle Pat Williams said. "We're the Vikings.'

The Vikings may need to get their own running game going in order to fend off streaking Dallas. Star back Adrian Peterson gained 1,383 yards and ran for 18 touchdowns this season, but posted only three 100-yard games - none after Nov. 15. He also lost six fumbles, tops in the league among non-quarterbacks.

Earning the second seed and home field for this round may benefit Minnesota greatly. The Vikings are 8-0 at the Metrodome this season, with the last five of those wins coming by 17 points or more. They've also won three straight home meetings with Dallas - including a 27-10 playoff victory Jan. 9, 2000 - since a 23-17 defeat Sept. 17, 1995.

If the Cowboys can't overcome Favre, the Minnesota defensive front and that history, their current winning streak and status as a chic Super Bowl pick will be for naught.

"I know the media loves the Dallas Cowboys and it's America's team, but we've got a pretty good team over here,' Vikings defensive end Jared Allen said. "That's all I'm concerned about.'

 

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Total Talk - Divisional Playoffs

Total Talk - Divisional Playoffs

Total Talk - Divisional Playoffs

Wild Card Recap

Total bettors watched the ?over? produce a perfect 4-0 mark last weekend, which was highlighted by the Cardinals? 51-45 shootout victory over the Packers in the desert. The combined 96 points easily surpassed the closing number of 48 ? and this game was never in doubt. Arizona led 24-10 after two quarters, which helped ?over? players cash the first-half too. We mention that because the ?over? was also 4-0 in the first half for all four games last weekend. Second-half players pressing or chasing the ?over? watched the totals go 2-2 in the second half of the four contests.

Before we break down the Divisional Playoffs, you have to factor in the rest factor for the Chargers, Colts, Saints and Vikings. In the Week 9 edition of Total Talk, we talked about how the extra week has produced extra points. This year, teams off the bye have averaged 24.3 points per game. Despite those decent offensive numbers from clubs off a week of rest, the total has held steady at 16-16 in the 32 instances.

Even though the circumstances differ this weekend, make a note that San Diego (23), Indianapolis (42), New Orleans (48) and Minnesota (27) all put up decent numbers after their regular season break. The Vikings were the only team to see their game go ?under? after a bye out of the above four.

Saturday

Arizona at New Orleans (57)

If there is one matchup that?s hard to handicap from a total perspective this weekend, then this is it. The Saints (31.9 PPG) and Cardinals (25.1 PPG) have both proven that they can light up the scoreboard at anytime but this number could be a tad too high.

For starters, a lot of people are going to be looking at Arizona?s 51-point outburst last week against Green Bay. Plus, the Cardinals have seen four of their last five playoff games go ?over? the number too. When you combine those facts with a New Orleans juggernaut that put up 30-plus points in five of seven meaningful games played at the Superdome this season, it?s hard not to expect a high-scoring affair.

The total opened at 57, dropped a little bit, but has since hovered at the opener. When you look at the line (NO -7), the oddsmakers are expecting the Saints to earn a 32-25 decision. While that seems doable, bettors might want to pass rather than press the ?over? here.

If you?re looking for a reason to skip the total on this game then just focus on regular season total trends. There were 14 games that had totals of 50-plus points and the ?under? went 11-3 in those games. New Orleans played in 10 of those contests and the ?under? was 7-3 but a couple of those outcomes could?ve went either way. Arizona had two totals listed at 50, and both went ?under? the number.

After watching the Cardinals give up 35 in the second-half last week, the right play might be on the Saints? team total (32).

Baltimore at Indianapolis (44)

First, let us apologize for not making note of a strong total system last week that involved Baltimore. Teams playing three straight on the road over the last five seasons, have watched the ?over? go 19-8-2 (72%). This year, the New York Giants and Seattle both faced the gauntlet during the regular season and both of their games went ?over? the number. Last week, the Ravens defeated the Patriots 33-14 and the game jumped ?over? the closing total of 44, which kept this streak alive once again. Including the two regular season ?over? tickets and last week?s ticket, the ?over? percentage has jumped to 22-8-2 (73%). Be sure to table this trend for next year folks!



Onto Indy, where Baltimore will now be playing its fourth straight road game on Saturday and the game is on short rest too. Should we believe that the Ray Lewis and the often-called tough Ravens are tired? Just a little bit? Not including neutral sites, the only team that has recently faced four straight on the road was Carolina during the 2005-06 season. The Panthers played their final regular season game outside of Charlotte and then three consecutive playoff games away from home. In case you forgot, the Seahawks ripped Carolina 34-14 in the NFC Championship and the combined 48 points went ?over? the closing number of 43.5.

The Ravens posted 33 points in last week?s victory over the Patriots, which was the eighth time this season that the team eclipsed the 30-point barrier. Now Baltimore faces an Indianapolis defense (19.2 PPG) that has been stout against opponents this season and the unit hasn?t been healthy for the most part either.

Fortunately gamblers can look at some past history on this particular matchup, including a battle played in November. The Colts nipped the Ravens 17-15 on the road in a game where both teams left a lot of points on the board. The contest featured six field goals, and two turnovers in the red zone. The Colts (299) and Ravens (256) both had their way through the air and Sunday?s conditions will be better within the confines of Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday.

Since 2005, these two teams have met five times and the ?under? has gone 4-1 in that span. The total is hovering around 44 points, which is the exact number that was posted in Week 11.

Sunday

Dallas at Minnesota (45.5)

Gamblers are having a tough analyzing the side on this matchup and the same can be said for the total too. Minnesota (29.4 PPG) is ranked second in the league in scoring, while Dallas (23.2 PPG) has shown the ability to light up the scoreboard as well. All the attention will be focused on quarterbacks Brett Favre and Tony Romo, but the defensive units they?ll face should garner a bit of the spotlight as well.

If you take away the two losses against the N.Y. Giants (33, 31) this year, Dallas has held every other team to 21 or less for an average of 16.6 PPG. Those numbers include the 14 points that Philadelphia was held to last Saturday in Dallas, and the Eagles? offense (26.8 PPG) wasn?t exactly a pushover.





Minnesota?s defense only allowed 19.5 PPG this season and it led the league with 48 sacks. If the unit can apply pressure without blitzing Romo, this game could change in a hurry. The Vikings gave up 24, 23 and 31 in their first three games played at home and more than half of those points (47) came in the second-half. Since those shootouts transpired, Minnesota held its final five opponents to a total of 46 points. Four of the five went ?under? the number.

For what it?s worth, Favre has only played in two playoff games over the past five years and both of those went ?over? the number. Including last week?s win over the Eagles, Romo has played in three postseason games and the ?under? has produced a 2-1 ledger.

N.Y. Jets at San Diego (42.5)

The last Divisional Playoff game has the lowest total on the board and it could look like a gift to some bettors. On paper, San Diego?s offense (28.4 PPG) looks like matchup nightmares for any opponent it faces. The amount of weapons on hand for QB Philip Rivers (28 TDs, 9 INTs) is scary and the gunslinger is playing the smartest football of his career. The former N.C. State standout better be sharp this weekend, because he faces a New York defense (14.8 PPG, 252 YPG) that is ranked first in points and total yards.

Head coach Rex Ryan and his troops have been on fire and they?re playing with confidence right now. Only the Dolphins (31) and Patriots (31) were able to light up the scoreboard against the Jets and even New England?s point total was helped with a defensive touchdown. The unit does have weaknesses, two for that matter. They don?t have the best pass rush (32 sacks) and you can run the football on them, just ask the Bengals (171 yards). Will the Chargers? Norv Turner stay disciplined and run the football or will he tell Rivers to air it out? Cincinnati let QB Carson Palmer chuck it 36 times last week and we saw how that turned out, a 24-14 Jets? victory.

The Jets did post 24 last week on the Bengals but 17 of the 24 points were aided by big plays from TE Dustin Keller and RB Shonn Greene. If those things happen again and QB Mark Sanchez completes 80 percent (12-of-15) his passes, you could see another 20-spot posted. However, bettors should know that New York is going to run, run and run more. They know Sanchez isn?t ready to lead the team to a victory on his own shoulders. With that being said, don?t be surprised to see Sanchez (20 INTs) make mistakes, especially if the Jets get down early.

New York has seen the ?under? go 5-4 on the road, while San Diego has watched the ?over? go 6-2 at home.

We?re going to leave you with one last tidbit for this contest and it?s a good one folks. Since the Chargers put themselves back on the map in 2004, they?ve played in seven postseason games. Four of those contests were at Qualcomm Stadium and all four of those games went ?under? the number. In case you?re wondering, the ?over? went 2-1 in the road games.

Keep an eye on the Weather for this matchup, with some light rain expected in the forecast.

 

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Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves



I was sitting in the Sam?s Town Sports Book the other night after a fine Mexican dinner at Willy and Jose?s and asked a few fellows who they thought may be the plays in the four NFL divisional playoff games this weekend and got an answer that was pretty one sided.

Joe, who hails originally from Chicago said, ?The Chargers are going whoop that ass.?

Johnny from Philadelphia said the Saints, ?Got a mission to accomplish and it don?t matter who is in their way.?

Not that it makes any difference where I was, but I?ll preface by saying I was in the den at Sam?s Town which is not exactly the same clientele as the Bellagio or Wynn Resorts, but it was the salt of the Vegas earth I was looking for.


I wanted to hear some opinions and thoughts from the everyday Joe?s on how this weekend's games were going to go. Even though the Sam?s Town Sports Book is much nicer in appearance in relation to the cast of clientele, it was the closest thing I could find to a group of audience that resembled the old Stardust where I could find a thousand reasons on each side of a big game to take each.

Joe from Chicago, also told me about a game he could be happy with on each side, ?I?ll tell you what, I don?t know who to take between the Cowboys and Vikings. Brett Favre at home against what looks to be the best team in football right now. I could flip a coin on that game and be happy with either side.?

The dilemma on the Viking game seems to be a cautious tale around the Las Vegas Sports Books as well. The Vikings opened up a short 2.5-point home favorite but has been slightly bet up to 3 (EVEN) at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook.

Other than the Chargers early line movement on Sunday Night and Monday, not many of the games have moved much, at least compared to last week where we saw the Packers game run six-points in some places.

?You won?t see the type of movement we saw last week in games,? says Lucky?s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro, ?We have a few games on solid numbers where we aren?t seeing much sharp action, other than early with the Jets, and I believe the action coming through will be evenly matched throughout the week.?

The Chargers originally opened a 9-point favorite but has been bet to minus-7 by some of the Sharp money. Other than the small Vikings move, that has been it for the week other than over money coming in on the Cardinals game -- go figure -- and a pretty large move on the Vikings under going from the opener of 48 to 45.5.

?I think you could shake up the decisions in a jar and be happy with either side of any of the four games this weekend, ? said Vaccaro.

That?s the way the public has been betting thus far and none of the wise guys have shown their hand throughout the way. It?s likely their money will come game day, but from the sheer masses of public money that has come in it looks like there will be enough money to off-set any transaction made by a mere $20,000 wager.

The Books will shade a number just based on the face that bets it and that may be a good sign, but playoff football has shown over the years to be more about what the public does than what the Sharps think. The Sharps like to take the value in the numbers, but are much skewed by the byes and how the current winning team is coming off their big Wild Card weekend win.

In regards to the Cowboys who are less the field goal underdog based on the money, their odds look pretty good right based on history according to the Gold Sheets Bruce Marshall. 135 of the Divsional playoff games since 1975 had landed at ?3?? or less 33 times. Of all those games that were 1 to 3-point favorites, the Favorites have gone an unimpressive 7-13-1.

The power ratings suggest that Vikings might be a one-point dog on a neutral field because of the supposed advantage that the Vikings have at the Metrodome which usually gives them at least 3.5-points as a home team.

Despite seeing only eight teams remaining, there still could be some value betting on the money line for certain teams just because of the risk that?s still out there on futures to win the conference or Super Bowl.

?We do well with just about every team on futures this year except the Saints,? says M Resort?s Director or Race and Sports Mike Colbert.

Despite the heavy overlay on futures, Colbert is riding it out this weekend.

?It?s a little too early to be hedging against what we have at this stage. I think the Saints have a valiant opponent in the Cardinals and we have the best line in the world with the saints -6.5 (-120), so if there is Cardinals money to balance out anything we should see it, but we haven?t thus far.?

The M Resort is also offering the Colts as a 6-point favorite which is the cheapest in Las Vegas.

?I think the Ravens have a good shot in this game,? says Colbert.

The Sharps haven?t really spoken of yet and the small money is still mulling out their opinions. But, by game day, you can bet the public will be on Indianapolis, Minnesota, New Orleans, and the Chargers. What a surprise, the four favorites: that?s odd!

 

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N.Y. Jets at San Diego Betting Preview

N.Y. Jets at San Diego Betting Preview

N.Y. Jets at San Diego Betting Preview

The San Diego Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. More than one prognosticator has the Bolts fulfilling long believed destiny of making the Super Bowl this season. In spite of modest playoff success the last couple of years, is Norv Turner really capable of leading this team to Miami?

The New York Jets (10-7 SU & ATS) don?t believe so, especially after whipping Cincinnati 24-14 last week. While some would prefer to dismiss the Jets having won last two regular season games against unmotivated foes to sneak into the postseason, the fact remains they have won and covered six of seven (only loss late 10-7 defeat to Atlanta) and been impressive in doing so. In those triumphs, the Flyboys have beat the oddsmakers by 13.4 points per game. Without question, the Jets are the only remaining team in the playoffs where the quarterback position isn?t the most important factor.

New York is 9-3 ATS as road underdog and according to coach Rex Ryan, are built for January football. The Jets were the top rushing team in the NFL during the regular season and didn?t miss a beat at Cincinnati rushing for 171 yards last week. On defense, Ryan doesn?t look to stop a portion of a team?s offense; he wants to take EVERYTHING away.

Besides have talented players with aggressive style, Ryan is blessed with having CB Darrelle Revis. He is the best pure cover corner in football and faced a who?s-who of pass catchers this season, with none having more than five catches for a max of 35 yards. Why would teams bother to throw at him, instead of avoiding him like teams do Oakland?s Nnamdi Asomugha, they don?t have choice really.

While most teams play a version of Cover 2 defense, it?s not unusual for New York to play Cover 1 or 0, to create collapse the pocket, having faith Revis can stop top receiver and others in the secondary to guard for a shorter amount of time with opposing quarterback having to unload the ball quickly. The Jets are 6-3 SU and ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the 2005 wildcard round, 20-17 as 6.5-point underdogs.

The Chargers (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS) believe they have inherit advantages over New York and will be able to expound on them. San Diego is emotional club and feeds on own momentum, that is why are 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins. Last week, the Bengals defense lacked the players to make Mark Sanchez uncomfortable, as he completed most of passes rolling out or on naked bootlegs. The Chargers bring pressures off the edges, which should keep Sanchez in the pocket and make him read the entire field, instead of sections.

Phillip Rivers is tall and strong and seldom affected by a tight pocket. San Diego has a roster of tall receivers. Turner will try and use his No. 1 receiver Vincent Jackson, who will probably draw Revis. Instead of wasting time throwing deep to him, watch for Turner to run slants, hoping Jackson can use big body and have Rivers throw the ball high to him.

If that is taken away, Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee are monstrous targets for New York to combat and there?s that other guy, oh yea, Antonio Gates who isn?t too shabby for a Chargers club that is 15-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning road record.

Sportsbook.com opened San Diego as nine-point chalk and most of the action has been on the Jets, now receiving seven points. New York?s offensive line must control an athletic Chargers front seven that is below average battling it out in the trenches, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer got a game ball last week for scheme and play-calling and will need similar genius against the Bolts for the Jets to improve to 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning home record.

The Chargers are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 tilts and are the best screen team in football, with massive linemen and diminutive Darren Sproles hiding behind them before skittering away for big gains. He could well be the biggest difference in the last playoff game of the day.


Power Line ? San Diego by 3
Forecaster ? Jets cover